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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-budget poll sees CON up 2 and Ukip down 2 – but
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-budget poll sees CON up 2 and Ukip down 2 – but all changes within margin of error
We’ve just got the first post-budget voting figures from YouGov which are all within the margin of error. Only change on yesterday is CON up 2 with Ukip down 2.
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O, come off it Mike! You've be relentlessly negative against the Blues for the last few weeks. Feels like the ref is playing for the opposition right now.
This was never going to be a budget that changed things overnight. It needed to be a sensible, well-received proposal that didn't have any loose ends (no matter how minor in the scheme of things) which people can pull apart and build a narrative of failure around. Rebuilding confidence takes time.
I think they have done what they set out to do. Not flashy, not overnight, but will improve sentiment towards the government over time. Will it be enough: may be, but who really knows. Still holding to my view the most likely outcome next election is a Labour minority / Lab-Lib pact
Just like the Labour party in the opinion polls.
Your message popped up on my screen. Very impressive.
Beautiful avatar, Charles.
Thank you. I kind of like that view as well
I see UKIP won their first council seat in Greater London last night, though Gooshays should be very fertile territory for them.
I think the reason for this is that while the budget measures were generally fairly well received the overall situation disclosed in the budget, particularly in relation to the deficit, was very disappointing to those who had not been paying close attention.
I suspect the general populace are slowly coming around to the idea that this is not a brief period of austerity but the new reality that is going to go on for years. In fact it may well get worse as we cannot indefinitely defer substantial cuts in public spending if growth and tax revenues do not pick up. We have another 2 years of this tops and if the higher growth forecast by the OBR has moved on again we will have no choices left.
I also think (and this of course might just reflect my own views) that there is an element of despair about Labour and the lack of an alternative. To have a properly functioning democracy we need a genuine choice and we have rarely had that for more than 30 years now.
'I suspect the general populace are slowly coming around to the idea that this is not a brief period of austerity but the new reality that is going to go on for years.'
The public is working no more slowly than the pace HM Chancellor of the Exchequer has set. In June 2010, Osborne was confidently predicting that "austerity" would be over in just over a year's time from now.
Am I right in recalling your avatar is the approach to the family home?
Sounds very much like David Gold has been the one stalling on the deal on that basis that they wouldn't let West Ham buy the stadium but they wanted the club to rent it and pay for much of the necessary changes to the quite appalling design. Mr Gold played hardball over the costs according to the BBC.
One thing this has proven is just how poorly Coe, Jowell and Livingstone handled the Olympics Legacy -they spent a fortune on what became an athletics vanity project while all the time shouting about how football would never get near the stadium. But the current government will get the criticism, as will Boris, for at least getting some long term use and revenue back for the only white elephant bigger than the millennium dome.
Oh, the sunny optimism of 2010 when the world was fresh and young!
Both major parties were in denial about the extent of the problems and very few (Vince a possible exception) in the Lib Dems even understood the nature of the problem.
People do not become politicians to be constantly taking things away from people. They all like to believe that they can make a difference, be nice and fix things. It is quite touching really.
Without quite indulging in the histrionics of zerohedge that Hunchman was referring to overnight there is no doubt we in this country had a particularly bad dose of what was a global bubble of truly epic proportions. The west has almost stopped creating wealth and relied on debt to fuel its consumption. There will indeed be a heavy price to pay and it will change politics in this country radically for a very, very long time.
How does one not? It is set as the default, at least in IE and I thought generally.
Brilliant. He really is a star.
@JackW, I certainly hope there will be a Jacobite restoration in your avatar!
When we get beyond a relatively few comments the system creates subpages. This means if you have oldest first you actually lose the thread header although there are complicated ways back to it. By keeping newest at the top the thread header remains at the top too. That is why I think it is best this way.
More on our report on gas shortage: last night storage facilities were only 10 per cent full, compared with 49 per cent this time last year.
Who knows It might even encourage brevity!
Well remembered - the last one was the view from the upstairs window; this one is halfway down the drive looking away from the house.
@tim
I know that Labour has a habit of "misrecalling the facts" but I said it was on the Hampshire/Berkshire borders. My uncle lives in Lincolnshire.
When you refresh the page you have to scroll around to find the last comment you read. Oldest first always refreshes to where you were making it much easier to read.
People who like Newest first are as mad as people who eat eggs Big End first.
There was real alarm yesterday about the idea of the lights going out within 3 years due to energy shortages. The failures of the last government to make actual decisions on power stations are coming home to roost faster than expected. In fairness the slightly less than Honourable member for Wandsworth didn't really help either.
I fear that the many attempts to reinflate a housing bubble are going to create a lot of bad debt. My own application to borrow a further £32k was approved in less than two days...
if you look at the discussion on Vanilla rather than pb then you see oldest first.
Icatch up with oldest first then change to newest first when actively posting.
How do the pop-ups work? Where do they appear? I'm feeling very dense here.
On the negative side it reminds me of when I was less organised a few years ago, and would put things on the credit card when I ran out of cash towards the end of a month.
On the plus side it demonstrates an impressive level of control over departmental spending compared to previous years when departments have gone on a spending binge to make sure they didn't have an underspend. This problem of almost desperate spending at the end of a financial year is not unique to the public sector - I have heard tales from large private sector companies of similar last minute splurges to avoid underspends - so it could represent real progress in bringing sanity to the organisation of government, putting it on a level superior to that of the private sector.
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Thank you. It's a fine portrait of James VIII/III of Scotland, Ireland and England, de jure King from 1701-66 - our longest reigning monarch until the Queen overtakes him in 2017.
I was really oh err when I saw that just two days supply was here now - the pressure on the system is going to be very heavy over the next few days - I assume pressure will be turned down [can they still do this?] to make sure it stretches to cover demand.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21884556
Well done.
After Osbrowne spent most of his time pre-budget starting leadership rumours around Theresa May why would anyone be surprised at his 2nd home subsidy 'master strategy'.
He just can't help himself. He really is that incompetent.
"One Tory MP is quoted by the Whips as having said "we're making a big mistake, it'll make Suez look like common sense".
He was right. More loss of life and injury than there were Falkland Islanders. The woman was a maniac
Thank you. It was my second choice during Disqus-time but the new format deserves a bright new offering.
I also thought the fine wig would be a homage to OGH. I can see him now on the TV with a full flowing 18th century offering gliding through the studios like a three master in full sail !!
(1) In each and every fiscal year from 2010-2011 to 2015-2016, public sector net borrowing ("PNSB") as a % of GDP should be lower than the previous year.
(2) PSNB as a % of GDP in 2013-2014 should be no more than half of the level in 2009-2010.
(3) Public sector net debt as a % of GDP should be lower in 2015-2016 than 2014-2015.
Here's how the incumbent government scores against these targets, according to the OBR's forecasts, found in Annex B to HM Treasury, Budget 2013, HC 1033, (London, March 2013):
(1) A narrow pass. Underlying PSNB fell from 7.9% in 2011-2012 to 7.8% in 2012-2013 and is forecast to fall to 7.5% in 2013-2014. Given the previous (in)accuracy of the OBR's forecasts, there is no guarantee that this target will be met.
(2) Fail. PSNB in 2009-2010 was 11.1% of GDP. In 2013-2014 it is forecast to be 7.5% of GDP, a reduction of only 32.4%, significantly missing the target of at least 50%.
(3) Fail. Public sector net debt as a % of GDP is forecast to rise from 82.6% in 2014-2015 to 85.1% in 2015-2016.
Now, if it had been suggested in June 2010 that not only would the government have comprehensively abandoned the fiscal mandate it set out in its emergency budget, but was on course to fail the two most important targets of the Darling Plan, one might well have asked what was the point of the coalition. Indeed, it should be remembered that the Conservative Party's reasoned amendment to the Order for the Second Reading of the 2010 Act suggested the Darling Plan was 'inadequate in achieving the objective of securing sound public finances' [HC Deb 5 January 2010, col. 72].
On any objective measure, by its own standards and by those of the previous administration, the coalition government has failed. Unfortunately, the people will in all likelihood be treated to another two years of its wretched and incompetent rule.
RT @oldandrewuk: There are still people who think pointing out that Gove disagrees with educationalists in some way weakens his argument
LOL
I note that Vanilla has a private email function between members.
From 25 years ago
Industrial production -1%
Retail sales +84%
From 15 years ago
Industrial production -13%
Retail sales +50%
The era of "Because I'm worth it" and "Don't put it off, put it on".
And now Osborne has abandoned attempts at 'rebalancing' in preference for another housing bubble.
When did the rest of the world announce that they owed Britain a living?
Think you misunderstood. Argument was that this was a budget designed to address strategic issues (perception of competence) rather than a overnight bump. I think initially it has done that - whether will be enough (real income key) unclear
Here's my pre-qualifying piece for Malaysia (no tip):
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/malaysia-pre-qualifying.html
" The boss of the energy firm SSE has warned that "there is a very real risk of the lights going out" in Britain.
Ian Marchant said the government was significantly underestimating the scale of the capacity crunch facing the country.
He was commenting on the company's decision to cut back on power generation at five sites.
The energy regulator, Ofgem, has also warned of an increased risk of a blackout. "
Perhaps the Osborne / government /establishment cheerleaders explain where the extra electricity generation needed to power the 'grth' they all expect to preside over will come from.
You've got too many bedrooms so you're going to pay for it, but on the other hand here's a subsidy for a 2nd home.
It's so 'brilliant' you might be mistaken for thinking Osbrowne's a complete idiot. ;^)
"There is no doubt that the big sophisticated 9/11 or 7/7 type plots are much harder to organise, they did need a lot of overseas direction, and some of the al Qaida leadership have said that's good if you can do it, but if not any attack whatever you can do at whatever size is useful.
"We are seeing more small groups getting together at shorter notice and more people wanting to do things without that broader command and control."
Al Qaida remains the greatest terror threat to Britain, he said, but there continues to be a danger from Northern Ireland.
He said the aspiration of Republican groups would be to attack the mainland but stressed he had not seen any evidence of that so far. The comments came as new figures revealed the number of terror arrests had risen by 60 per cent in the year to September 2012.
A total of 245 people were held on suspicion of terrorism-related offences in the period, compared with 153 in the previous 12 months, the Home Office said." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/9946806/Major-terror-attack-on-scale-of-77-foiled-every-year-in-UK-police-reveal.html
I thought it was slave labour?
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And where do you fall on the islanders' right of self-determination?
In reality, most people think we're all a bit rubbish, just as they thought last week. The only change that isn't MOE is a bounce in the number thinking that the Conservatives are the party most prone to keep chopping and changing (up 4). Not sure what that's about - perhaps doubts about sincerity on deficit reduction, or just noise.
Also the great need for extra gas storage capacity was raised at least ten years ago, but again nothing seems to have been done - our storage capacity is very small compared to that of our continental neighbour's.
It would appear that our Energy Ministers have been asleep at their desk/club/prison for all these years.
I'm afraid my dear old thing you are spectactularly wrong about the Falklands.
From the lefts viewpoint read Michael Foot's outstanding speech in the HoC on that fateful Saturday sitting. An outstanding contribution - reasoned, articulate and a passionate defence of the right of self determination for the islanders.
My own solution to the Falklands Islands would be to put them up for auction to the highest cash bidder, with a reserve set at £30 billion (given the natural resources associated with the islands, I expect the Chinese might be very interested, and they never seem too fussed about upsetting their neighbours with territorial claims). Each islander would be given £2 million and the right to a British passport. The remaining £26 billion (or more) could be used to reduce the national debt.
A perfect solution for these times of austerity.
Some Irish nationalists will never be satisfied until Ireland is unified under the rule of the South.
In the same way, some Arab nationalists will never rest until Israel is wiped off the map. The Picot-Sykes agreement has a lot to answer for.
Back then, Bacton could keep the bottom half of the UK going for 10 days if the worst happened. That we're down to 2 days capacity today with that new pipeline just makes me gape in horror that things have been left so long.
This is a desperate situation. 2 days??! That's no contingency at all.
Apparantly Labour were putting out leaflets claiming it was a straight fight between them and the BNP.
Their failure to make progress among the southern wwc must concern them.
But a collapse of the Conservative vote among the wwc would be disasterous for that party.
RT @JohnRentoul: Sanctimonious Clegg furiously attacks Labour govt's decision to allow free movt from Poland in 2004. What was Lib Dem position then?
(Having said that, a quick search does not show a source for the above. I'm sure I'm right though - perhaps it was in Max Hastings' book...)
The gas position is even more alarming in that the LNG facility that imports from Qatar is not yet running at full capacity.