politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at how undecided voters might vote in this general ele

AndyJS

MikeL said:

Re the YouGov Sunday Times 49/31/9/3 poll, has anyone commented on the figures for chance of changing mind? They are:

5% of Con say they may change mind
11% of Lab say they may change mind
22% of LD say they may change mind

That makes the 49% Con rating look very solid indeed - even if all 5% of Con supporters changed mind that would still leave Con at 46.5%.

Whereas in fact if people are correctly judging their intentions it would be likely that, if anything, the Con lead would increase from its current 18%.

UKIP on 3% looks a bit like the poll is taking into account the fact UKIP are only standing in 375 odd seats. It probably isn't though.

NeilVW

RobD said:

swing_voter said:

Very hard to tel what the LD vote will do on the day, one of the known unknowns in this election is where will the REMAIN vote go.....that 48% seems elusive to all the parties, could there be shy REMAIN voters in play (nobody likes to admit backing a loser)

Do polls really show the 48% don't know how they will vote?

In fact the latest YouGov shows 14% of Remain voters are undecided for the GE, slightly less than Leavers (16%).

Dura_Ace

rcs1000 said:

There are three Conservative candidates I could not vote for:

David Tredinnick
Claire-Louise Leyland
Zac Goldsmith

Any other personal dislikes that would over-rule personal political preference out there?

I would become a suicide bomber if Liz Kendall smiled as she asked me to do it.

swing_voter

Jacob Rees Mogg I find hard to trust- his smug Eton-ness and patronising manner always grates with me, I am not surprised he isn't fronting TM's efforts to get the working class vote out, then again he may be having a tricky fight with the LDs who did respectably in his seat for the West of England Mayoralty......he should hold it but I am not sure the good voters of East Bristol/West Bath like his somewhat condescending manner

RobD

New thread!