Looking at the candidates in Maidenhead, unless the LDs pick up from their historic low last time, it could well be none of the 12 other candidates pick up more than 10% of the vote. Labour barely managed it last time, although it seems in usual times the LDs manage it easily. No wonder May has such a massive majority.
Looks like 2 Independents, 2 'no label' Independents, Animal Welfare, Monster Raving Loony, Green Loonies, Christian People's and 'The Just Political Party' along with the big boys.
Looking at the candidates in Maidenhead, unless the LDs pick up from their historic low last time, it could well be none of the 12 other candidates pick up more than 10% of the vote. Labour barely managed it last time, although it seems in usual times the LDs manage it easily. No wonder May has such a massive majority.
Looks like 2 Independents, 2 'no label' Independents, Animal Welfare, Monster Raving Loony, Green Loonies, Christian People's and 'The Just Political Party' along with the big boys.
Fun for the count staff.
It becomes even more fun if one or more of the candidates in just below the lost deposit level.
Following Peter the Punter's rather gallant efforts to try and state the bleeding obvious to Brexit ideologies, I was struck by a Time's piece this week.
Farmers now are realising that Brexit is utterly disastrous...not only will they lose vital subsidies and access to migrant Labour but they will be left completely exposed to the harshness of a market where standards outside the EU are piss poor...I could almost feel sorry for them if it wasn't for the fact that many of them supported Brexit, or like slaughtering wildlife, or both.....
Anyway the moral of the story is that we are dealing with morons who have no capacity for cognitive or intellectual debate such is their blind ideological prejudice....Brexit in a nutshell....
The government aren't going to continue with agricultural subsidies? I find that hard to imagine.
The Time's piece also indicated that in an austerity dominant environment, it is dawning on farmers that their subsidies might be slightly less important than say the NHS...as said, sating the bleeding obvious...
The good thing for free marketeers is that we will be able to flood our supermarkets with cheap meat from god knows where....
Argentina, New Zealand and Australia. Looking forward to it.
Oh! And I nearly forgot the bleached chickens from the US.
If people given a free chose decide to by a good, any good, including bleached chickens, that then demonstrates that is there preferred option, and to stop then buying it is wrong IMO.
You may not like Bleached chickens, I may not like bleached chickens but we do not have the right to stop others buying bleached chickens.
Consumer preferences are moving quickly in the US (last week I met with senior management of 2 of the top 4 veterinary antibiotic producers and seeing the other 2 at the end of the month)
At Costco, for example, antibiotic free chickens are sold in green wrappers while those that have been medicated are sold in red
Sounds like the free market in the form of Costco's cullard wrappings have found a solution. I have no doubt that if left to it Tesco would come up with something similar for other animal welfare issues as well
why is Ms Soubry disliked.. because she ousted NPEXMP? or because she is a remainer?
It seems Ms Soubry is to Tories what Kate Hoey is to lefties...
No. Soubry (it's Mrs - she's married, not a lesbian) is a lefty who accidentally pinned a blue rosette on in the dark and then wandered into a Tory selection meeting whilst looking for the village hall fete committee evening. She doesn't have a Conservative bone in her body. Kate Hoey has some very leftist views. Brexit was Labour Party policy in 1983. And she's unusual but not alone in Labour with her views on field sports. Hoey is a bit of a maverick but she is in the right party. Soubry has the wrong rosette on.
I expect Anna Soubry would have felt quite at home with Harold Macmillan, Ted Heath and Willie Whitelaw. The problem for her is that the Conservative Party has been taken over by right-wing hardliners and neo-Kippers. I think she is only just beginning to realise....
Yeah the Lib Dems are being wiped out. Tough innit.
There are three Conservative candidates I could not vote for:
David Tredinnick Claire-Louise Leyland Zac Goldsmith
Any other personal dislikes that would over-rule personal political preference out there?
Why Claire?
I have always found her very pleasant
Think she will win Hamstead and Kilburn, the tories have finally realised they need to win over more ethnic minority voters and I don't think many Jewish people will stick with Jeremy Corbyns labour party.
Are you confusing H&K with Golders Green, Nunu? I shouldn't have thought the number of Jewish votes in the former was exceptionally high. In any case the 'Jewish vote' is always difficult to assess because there are so many strands and contradictions. I certainly wouldn't see it as a kind of bloc vote.
We discussed the betting possibilities in H&K on an earlier thread and there was a general consensus amongst the punters that it should be filed under 'too difficult'. Tulip Siddiq was a 4/1 shot at the time and this was thought to be about right.
why is Ms Soubry disliked.. because she ousted NPEXMP? or because she is a remainer?
It seems Ms Soubry is to Tories what Kate Hoey is to lefties...
No. Soubry (it's Mrs - she's married, not a lesbian) is a lefty who accidentally pinned a blue rosette on in the dark and then wandered into a Tory selection meeting whilst looking for the village hall fete committee evening. She doesn't have a Conservative bone in her body.
Kate Hoey has some very leftist views. Brexit was Labour Party policy in 1983. And she's unusual but not alone in Labour with her views on field sports.
Hoey is a bit of a maverick but she is in the right party. Soubry has the wrong rosette on.
If Soubry is SDP, probably so was Harold Macmillan who presided as housing minister over the building of more council houses than Labour had promised to build. So was Ted Heath when he reorganised the Prices and Incomes Board into two bodies instead of abolishing it. Earlier on, maybe so was Baldwin who created the National Grid in 1926.
They were, as Nick so correctly pointed out earlier today, a bit like the CDU, i.e. pre-Thatcher Tories [ one nation ? ]
Yes, indeed. Maybe May's a Christian Democrat.
If so, how to get rid of the bastards? (to quote John Major's phrase).
Yeah, I'm going to wait to see if she actually follows through with this "new deal for workers".
I was briefly optimistic about her last summer when she first got in, when she was talking about putting workers in the boardrooms of big companies and proper measures to clamp down on ridiculously high pay, but then she was apparently talked out of it by Philip Hammond. Not to mention her bottling the National Insurance rise just because of a few bad headlines in the Mail.
Fair go, but if we impose animal welfare standards on our own farmers but allow the import of foodstuffs that have been produced under lower standards, and thus at a lower cost, who benefits?
That is exactly what happened with pork. The EU eventually came up with a regime to abolish some horrendously cruel practices. The UK adopted them at once, and added a bit of gold plating, and forced our farmers to comply forthwith. The Dutch and the Danes were allowed a few years grace (and still haven't fully complied). The result, I couldn't find British pork or bacon in the supermarkets, British farmers were forced out of business and the UK TaxPayer lost out.
One would hope that leaving the EU will allow the UK government to enforce a level playing field as regards what gets imported into the UK. Livestock, bred, reared and slaughtered in conditions that would not be acceptable in the UK should be the first example giving our own farmers a chance (going to piss off quite a few Kiwis if we do, mind).
Here's the thing: FTAs these days are all about abolishing non-tariff barriers. You can have that FTA with the US, but you can't require that US food coming into the UK is subject to the same requirements as food from here.
Yes you can, if that's your priority in the negotiations, and you are prepared to sacrifice other things in the negations.
I don't recommend you do that, I would much prefer that consumers can choose to buy and eat whatever foot they want. but if the government wanted to add that in to a FTA then yes it can.
I think you are naive. The US has FTAs with about a dozen countries (see: http://www.trade.gov/fta/). In each case, the US has insisted on the removal of barriers on the import of US products. Now, personally, I am pretty relaxed about this. As long as food is properly labeled, that is fine by me.
Agriculture is one of the few areas where the US has run a consistent trade surplus in the last 60 years. The US runs a substantial trade deficit with us. I do not believe there is any trade deal on the table that does not involve us accepting any and all US agricultural produce.
Now - as I said - I think that's a worthwhile trade. It would likely mean meaningfully cheaper produce. But it equally means the UK government loses its ability to regulate agriculture, because it will become politically unacceptable to cost disadvantage domestic production.
why is Ms Soubry disliked.. because she ousted NPEXMP? or because she is a remainer?
It seems Ms Soubry is to Tories what Kate Hoey is to lefties...
No. Soubry (it's Mrs - she's married, not a lesbian) is a lefty who accidentally pinned a blue rosette on in the dark and then wandered into a Tory selection meeting whilst looking for the village hall fete committee evening. She doesn't have a Conservative bone in her body. Kate Hoey has some very leftist views. Brexit was Labour Party policy in 1983. And she's unusual but not alone in Labour with her views on field sports. Hoey is a bit of a maverick but she is in the right party. Soubry has the wrong rosette on.
I expect Anna Soubry would have felt quite at home with Harold Macmillan, Ted Heath and Willie Whitelaw. The problem for her is that the Conservative Party has been taken over by right-wing hardliners and neo-Kippers. I think she is only just beginning to realise....
Soubry is one of the reasons why we're having an election. May can't get rid of her but she can't rely on her either, so she needs a bullet-proof majority.
There are three Conservative candidates I could not vote for:
David Tredinnick Claire-Louise Leyland Zac Goldsmith
Any other personal dislikes that would over-rule personal political preference out there?
Kate Hoey.
I quite like her.
I would've really struggled to vote for Danczuk, if he was running again.
Agreed-he should have been on the list-along with Dawn Butler
The only one I know personally is Zack, who I supported in 2010. He is an OK guy, if a bit introverted. He can do everyone a good turn and oust the grinning L/D Olney.
Putting aside the mans politics for a minute, is it not a bit late in the game (25 days in) to be appointing a new head of the campaign? or is this normal?
So many are copying Ed Miliband's policies, I am losing count.
I guess he really was an excellent policy man and adviser, even if as a leader it did not work out.
I rated Ed Milliband quite highly. I think he made an excellent transition leader except in one fatal respect. He wasn't someone who was expected to be Prime Minister. His job was to rally the troops after defeat and come up with some fresh ideas for a party that had become exhausted after a decade in power. I think he did those jobs well. His fatal problem was his total inability to relate to the public and articulate those ideas in ways they could understand.
So many are copying Ed Miliband's policies, I am losing count.
I guess he really was an excellent policy man and adviser, even if as a leader it did not work out.
I rated Ed Milliband quite highly. I think he made an excellent transition leader except in one fatal respect. He wasn't someone who was expected to be Prime Minister. His job was to rally the troops after defeat and come up with some fresh ideas for a party that had become exhausted after a decade in power. I think he did those jobs well. His fatal problem was his total inability to relate to the public and articulate those ideas in ways they could understand.
His problem is that he stabbed his brother in the back. Not nice!
So many are copying Ed Miliband's policies, I am losing count.
I guess he really was an excellent policy man and adviser, even if as a leader it did not work out.
I rated Ed Milliband quite highly. I think he made an excellent transition leader except in one fatal respect. He wasn't someone who was expected to be Prime Minister. His job was to rally the troops after defeat and come up with some fresh ideas for a party that had become exhausted after a decade in power. I think he did those jobs well. His fatal problem was his total inability to relate to the public and articulate those ideas in ways they could understand.
His problem is that he stabbed his brother in the back. Not nice!
As a younger brother, I quite admired him for being willing to stand if he thought he were the better of the two, rather than wait his turn.
So much for Brexit leading to the UK becoming a 'laissez-faire' Singapore, with Macron promising to deregulate the French labour market today we are going to be moving to the left of France but with immigration controls
Following Peter the Punter's rather gallant efforts to try and state the bleeding obvious to Brexit ideologies, I was struck by a Time's piece this week.
Farmers now are realising that Brexit is utterly disastrous...not only will they lose vital subsidies and access to migrant Labour but they will be left completely exposed to the harshness of a market where standards outside the EU are piss poor...I could almost feel sorry for them if it wasn't for the fact that many of them supported Brexit, or like slaughtering wildlife, or both.....
Anyway the moral of the story is that we are dealing with morons who have no capacity for cognitive or intellectual debate such is their blind ideological prejudice....Brexit in a nutshell....
The government aren't going to continue with agricultural subsidies? I find that hard to imagine.
The Time's piece also indicated that in an austerity dominant environment, it is dawning on farmers that their subsidies might be slightly less important than say the NHS...as said, sating the bleeding obvious...
The good thing for free marketeers is that we will be able to flood our supermarkets with cheap meat from god knows where....
Argentina, New Zealand and Australia. Looking forward to it.
Oh! And I nearly forgot the bleached chickens from the US.
If people given a free chose decide to by a good, any good, including bleached chickens, that then demonstrates that is there preferred option, and to stop then buying it is wrong IMO.
You may not like Bleached chickens, I may not like bleached chickens but we do not have the right to stop others buying bleached chickens.
Consumer preferences are moving quickly in the US (last week I met with senior management of 2 of the top 4 veterinary antibiotic producers and seeing the other 2 at the end of the month)
At Costco, for example, antibiotic free chickens are sold in green wrappers while those that have been medicated are sold in red
Sounds like the free market in the form of Costco's cullard wrappings have found a solution. I have no doubt that if left to it Tesco would come up with something similar for other animal welfare issues as well
Non antibiotic are far more expensive for the consumer and more profitable for the producer. So the consumers are being manipulated towards something that isn't in their interest
I think you are naive. The US has FTAs with about a dozen countries (see: http://www.trade.gov/fta/). In each case, the US has insisted on the removal of barriers on the import of US products. Now, personally, I am pretty relaxed about this. As long as food is properly labeled, that is fine by me.
Agriculture is one of the few areas where the US has run a consistent trade surplus in the last 60 years. The US runs a substantial trade deficit with us. I do not believe there is any trade deal on the table that does not involve us accepting any and all US agricultural produce.
Now - as I said - I think that's a worthwhile trade. It would likely mean meaningfully cheaper produce. But it equally means the UK government loses its ability to regulate agriculture, because it will become politically unacceptable to cost disadvantage domestic production.
British farmers will be screwed. Not only do they have to compete against an influx of cheap imports but they could lose their main export market when Britain ends up on the other side of the EU tariff quotas. The complication for the EU is that they would like to keep us in because they have an agricultural trade surplus with us and don't want to compete against a lot of cheaper non-EU produce. Adding WTO regulations to the mix in addition to the point you have already made about third party FTAs not being signed without liberalisation of agricultural imports, I expect it to go ahead.
Edit. In fact the WTO rules could mean third party countries could force us to liberalise agricultural imports WITHOUT those countries signing an FTA with us.
Farron - some talk of potential challenge, particularly in the event of a blue tide, but probably safe Brake - Leave area, but UKIP vote to squeeze. Seems a goner. Lamb - Ditto. Williams - LDs doing badly in Wales, PC candidate strong local candidate apparently. Probably safe though. Carmichael - Very close last time, but historically very safe Liberal, Holyrood result strong for them. Despite liar case probably safe. Mulholland - No UKIP, Tory surge(?), Labour doing ok in area (?), maybe three way marginal? Pugh (not standing) - UKIP are standing, I'd read on here (I think) that locals were ok in the area, but was very tight last time. Possible loss, probable hold. Olney - Depends entirely on how people feel about Zac. They previously voted him in massively when under the Tory brand. Probable loss. Clegg - No tory tacticals to save him, depends if area which traditionally was tory/Liberal for 30 years sheds the big lab vote from last time. Probable hold, but still in danger.
So I think they may need 4-5 gains just to stand still.
Tim Farron got more than 50% of the vote last time around, and the LDs did very well in the constituency in the locals. While there is a meaningful Leave vote, it was still a Remain area. LD hold.
Tom Brake. I've felt this is the most vulnerable LD seat for long time. Big UKIP vote, Leave area. No Heathrow. Brake is locally popular, but likely Con gain.
Williams. Plaid was a long way behind last time. Probably a narrow LD hold.
Carmichael. 67.4% was the LD share in (believe it or not) both Orkney and Shetland last year, with a big swing away from the SNP. LD hold with an increased majority.
Mulholland. Big Remain constituency and LDs did well in Leeds NW last year and increased their share on both 2014 and 2015, so a likely relatively comfortable LD hold.
Pugh. Conservative + 66% of UKIP well above the LD share. Area voted Remain, which helps, and the locals last year were encouraging for them. But still, a likely Con gain.
Lamb. Con + 66% of UKIP marginally above LD share. Area voted Leave. Very, very close. I think he'll probably hold on (but this may be wishful thinking as I like him).
Clegg. It'll be a three way marginal won't it? Hallam locals last year were very encouraging for the LDs, so I'd reckon he holds it.
Olney. I mustn't let my dislike of Zac blind me. Likely a Conservative (re)gain. Would be a certain (re)gain with any other Conservative candidate.
So, the LDs on 5/6 in their existing seats. I think Twickenham and Edinburgh West are fairly likely. (Heathrow is a bigger issue in Twickenham than Richmond.) And the locals in Cambridge will have been very encouraging for the LDs. Probably one, possibly two more Scottish seats could fall. (Pick from Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Dumbartonshire East and Fife NE.) And add a wildcard for good measure.
So much for Brexit leading to the UK becoming a 'laissez-faire' Singapore, with Macron promising to deregulate the French labour market today we are going to be moving to the left of France but with immigration controls
HYFUD at the current rate of travel France will be right of us in maybe a hundred years!
So much for Brexit leading to the UK becoming a 'laissez-faire' Singapore, with Macron promising to deregulate the French labour market today we are going to be moving to the left of France but with immigration controls
I agree, I just hope is it some devious lying plan to swindle the voters
Because, if she sells this well, TMay could send Labour below 150 seats, and seal Conservative governance til the 2030s. Then we can bring in Singaporean style laws, and put all homeless ugly people on treadmills to power my third generation Nespresso machine
Singapore-lite is the nuclear option for no deal Brexit.
I really hope the labour party can get rid of communist corbyn and his mate John the Marxist asap after the GE otherwise I fear that the labour party will be done for.
Lol...Jezza just doesn't care does he...Take over the labour party withe entrists.
Can you imagine the uproar if the Tories hired the leader of the nazis.
Why should anyone be surprised that actual communists are welcome in the modern Labour Party? That's what Labour is now, a front for Marxists to take power.
So many are copying Ed Miliband's policies, I am losing count.
I guess he really was an excellent policy man and adviser, even if as a leader it did not work out.
I rated Ed Milliband quite highly. I think he made an excellent transition leader except in one fatal respect. He wasn't someone who was expected to be Prime Minister. His job was to rally the troops after defeat and come up with some fresh ideas for a party that had become exhausted after a decade in power. I think he did those jobs well. His fatal problem was his total inability to relate to the public and articulate those ideas in ways they could understand.
His problem is that he stabbed his brother in the back. Not nice!
I don't think that was a problem (except to brotherly love, but we're talking politics).
Lol...Jezza just doesn't care does he...Take over the labour party withe entrists.
Can you imagine the uproar if the Tories hired the leader of the nazis.
Why should anyone be surprises that actual communists are welcome in the modern Labour Party? That's what Labour is now, a front for actual Marxists to take power.
It's a front for communists, Marxists, terrorist sympathizers, antisemites, and holocaust deniers. It really is a sad state of affairs.
why is Ms Soubry disliked.. because she ousted NPEXMP? or because she is a remainer?
It seems Ms Soubry is to Tories what Kate Hoey is to lefties...
No. Soubry (it's Mrs - she's married, not a lesbian) is a lefty who accidentally pinned a blue rosette on in the dark and then wandered into a Tory selection meeting whilst looking for the village hall fete committee evening. She doesn't have a Conservative bone in her body. Kate Hoey has some very leftist views. Brexit was Labour Party policy in 1983. And she's unusual but not alone in Labour with her views on field sports. Hoey is a bit of a maverick but she is in the right party. Soubry has the wrong rosette on.
I expect Anna Soubry would have felt quite at home with Harold Macmillan, Ted Heath and Willie Whitelaw. The problem for her is that the Conservative Party has been taken over by right-wing hardliners and neo-Kippers. I think she is only just beginning to realise....
So much for Brexit leading to the UK becoming a 'laissez-faire' Singapore, with Macron promising to deregulate the French labour market today we are going to be moving to the left of France but with immigration controls
I agree, I just hope is it some devious lying plan to swindle the voters
Because, if she sells this well, TMay could send Labour below 150 seats, and seal Conservative governance til the 2030s. Then we can bring in Singaporean style laws, and put all homeless ugly people on treadmills to power my third generation Nespresso machine
It is certainly setting her up potentially the be the British Merkel and the towering figure of the next decade politically but yes she is clearly more statist than libertarian, indeed some Blairites are right of May economically
So much for Brexit leading to the UK becoming a 'laissez-faire' Singapore, with Macron promising to deregulate the French labour market today we are going to be moving to the left of France but with immigration controls
I agree, I just hope is it some devious lying plan to swindle the voters
Because, if she sells this well, TMay could send Labour below 150 seats, and seal Conservative governance til the 2030s. Then we can bring in Singaporean style laws, and put all homeless ugly people on treadmills to power my third generation Nespresso machine
Don't forget the rumour of a new centre left party made up of the God like Blair,that could half labour's vote.
Lol...Jezza just doesn't care does he...Take over the labour party withe entrists.
Can you imagine the uproar if the Tories hired the leader of the nazis.
Why should anyone be surprised that actual communists are welcome in the modern Labour Party? That's what Labour is now, a front for Marxists to take power.
Labour are doomed. They have to split. The communists are the parasite that has now entirely taken over the host.
What is scary is the shit I see going Facebook among youngsters that basically says yes corbyn is a bit crap but he is a super nice human not like those evil Tories...Ed miliband was a bit of hapless plonker but he wasnt a f##king terrorist sympathizing, extremist supporting communist enabler.
I don't think they really know what they are supporting.
So much for Brexit leading to the UK becoming a 'laissez-faire' Singapore, with Macron promising to deregulate the French labour market today we are going to be moving to the left of France but with immigration controls
HYFUD at the current rate of travel France will be right of us in maybe a hundred years!
Oh I agree it is all about the starting point from where the changes are made but Macron is arguably the most economically liberal G7 leader around now
Lol...Jezza just doesn't care does he...Take over the labour party withe entrists.
Can you imagine the uproar if the Tories hired the leader of the nazis.
Why should anyone be surprised that actual communists are welcome in the modern Labour Party? That's what Labour is now, a front for Marxists to take power.
Labour are doomed. They have to split. The communists are the parasite that has now entirely taken over the host.
A creature that 'gestates inside a living human host' — these are your words — 'and has concentrated Communism for blood'.
Not going to be particularly difficult for you to put the cross next to Lucy Powell is it ?
Oh dear! Mrs May is starting to talk bollocks. We may have a hard left government under Corbyn yet.
She's going after patriotic working class voters in Mansfield and Hartlepool. Sod what TSE wants
It's started -lol
I did mention when the tories bring out the social conservative manifesto watch the reactions.
If the Tories nail the marketing of this manifesto, they could top 50% in the polls, and the votes...
Seems incredible, and I think it may be beyond them in votes, but as you say, play things right, get lucky in opposition, and you can appeal to the centre and left while the right doesn't depart, and it is possible. Ambitious, perhaps to ambitious, but the rewards are high if she can hold it together for a month.
Lol...Jezza just doesn't care does he...Take over the labour party withe entrists.
Can you imagine the uproar if the Tories hired the leader of the nazis.
Why should anyone be surprised that actual communists are welcome in the modern Labour Party? That's what Labour is now, a front for Marxists to take power.
Labour are doomed. They have to split. The communists are the parasite that has now entirely taken over the host.
What is scary is the shit I see going Facebook among youngsters that basically says yes corbyn is a bit crap but he is a super nice human not like those evil Tories...Ed miliband was a bit of hapless plonker but he wasnt a f##king terrorist sympathizing, extremist supporting communist enabler.
I don't think they really know what they are supporting.
Facebook should set a politics exam for them. The 10% with the highest marks would graduate and be allowed to post on PB.com.
Lol...Jezza just doesn't care does he...Take over the labour party withe entrists.
Can you imagine the uproar if the Tories hired the leader of the nazis.
Why should anyone be surprised that actual communists are welcome in the modern Labour Party? That's what Labour is now, a front for Marxists to take power.
Labour are doomed. They have to split. The communists are the parasite that has now entirely taken over the host.
What is scary is the shit I see going Facebook among youngsters that basically says yes corbyn is a bit crap but he is a super nice human not like those evil Tories...Ed miliband was a bit of hapless plonker but he wasnt a f##king terrorist sympathizing, extremist supporting communist enabler.
I don't think they really know what they are supporting.
Yep, I know of several Corbyn supporters among my age group and this is how they think. I wonder whether they really don't know of Corbyn's history in regard to this, or whether they simply choose to ignore it given that much of them don't trust the mainstream media anyway because it dares to criticise their Messiah. After all these stories are not getting much time on the Canary or on Eoin Clarke's timeline, their most trusted sources of news it seems.
It might be difficult to believe now, but apparently in the 1980s one of the selling points of personal computers was precisely that they weren't connected to networks, that they were standalone and unable to be affected by the outside world = security. In other words, the only way for someone to steal your files was by physically breaking into your home. All that was forgotten as soon as the internet became popular.
Lol...Jezza just doesn't care does he...Take over the labour party withe entrists.
He is in favour of Labour being a very big tent, clearly. Some on the right side of the tent made need to nip out to make room.
It appears we really are all Tories now unless you are a lifelong communist or marxist.
I doubt most normal people have heard the refrain (which in fairness I have not actually seen for some time) from the early days of Corbynitis (now approaching stage 3 election fever stage, could be fatal), that all their opponents should f-- off and join the Tories, although I've always liked the rebuttal caused by 15+ Tory leads that apparently people are doing just that.
More pertinently, we shall soon see if the Corbyn experiment really is retaining previous Labour voters, gaining some, or shedding them, and if it is the latter, they need to take a very hard look at themselves, as it will very much appear to have been a case of appearing to not want the votes of masses of people, and practically pushing them to the opponent.
It might be difficult to believe now, but apparently in the 1980s one of the selling points of personal computers was precisely that they weren't connected to networks, that they were standalone and unable to be affected by the outside world = security. The only way for someone to steal your files was by physically breaking into your home. All that was forgotten as soon as the internet became popular.
Makes me chuckle how everybody gets upset about snoopers charter and id cards but people are actively filling their home with Alexa that sits their and basically spies on you.
That was always the play that UKIP would make in this campaign to have any hope. A retreat from 'real' Brexit in any case, since obviously we are definitely Brexiting. Will be interesting if they see a bit of an uptick in the polls, as I have doubts they will have too much success with that strategy.
Farron - some talk of potential challenge, particularly in the event of a blue tide, but probably safe Brake - Leave area, but UKIP vote to squeeze. Seems a goner. Lamb - Ditto. Williams - LDs doing badly in Wales, PC candidate strong local candidate apparently. Probably safe though. Carmichael - Very close last time, but historically very safe Liberal, Holyrood result strong for them. Despite liar case probably safe.
Clegg - No tory tacticals to save him, depends if area which traditionally was tory/Liberal for 30 years sheds the big lab vote from last time. Probable hold, but still in danger.
So I think they may need 4-5 gains just to stand still.
Tim Farron got more than 50% of the vote last time around, and the LDs did very well in the constituency in the locals. While there is a meaningful Leave vote, it was still a Remain area. LD hold.
Tom Brake. I've felt this is the most vulnerable LD seat for long time. Big UKIP vote, Leave area. No Heathrow. Brake is locally popular, but likely Con gain.
Williams. Plaid was a long way behind last time. Probably a narrow LD hold.
Carmichael. 67.4% was the LD share in (believe it or not) both Orkney and Shetland last year, with a big swing away from the SNP. LD hold with an increased majority.
Mulholland. Big Remain constituency and LDs did well in Leeds NW last year and increased their share on both 2014 and 2015, so a likely relatively comfortable LD hold.
Pugh. Conservative + 66% of UKIP well above the LD share. Area voted Remain, which helps, and the locals last year were encouraging for them. But still, a likely Con gain.
Lamb. Con + 66% of UKIP marginally above LD share. Area voted Leave. Very, very close. I think he'll probably hold on (but this may be wishful thinking as I like him).
Clegg. It'll be a three way marginal won't it? Hallam locals last year were very encouraging for the LDs, so I'd reckon he holds it.
Olney. I mustn't let my dislike of Zac blind me. Likely a Conservative (re)gain. Would be a certain (re)gain with any other Conservative candidate.
So, the LDs on 5/6 in their existing seats. I think Twickenham and Edinburgh West are fairly likely. (Heathrow is a bigger issue in Twickenham than Richmond.) And the locals in Cambridge will have been very encouraging for the LDs. Probably one, possibly two more Scottish seats could fall. (Pick from Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Dumbartonshire East and Fife NE.) And add a wildcard for good measure.
Seems notable the headlines are talking about this being a push for Labour votes. Not the intention, I'm sure, but it almost feels like a dare to Tory readers to point that out and see if they are still happy with the direction. She's caring about Labour votes chaps, you ok with that?
Not going to be particularly difficult for you to put the cross next to Lucy Powell is it ?
Oh dear! Mrs May is starting to talk bollocks. We may have a hard left government under Corbyn yet.
She's going after patriotic working class voters in Mansfield and Hartlepool. Sod what TSE wants
It's started -lol
I did mention when the tories bring out the social conservative manifesto watch the reactions.
If the Tories nail the marketing of this manifesto, they could top 50% in the polls, and the votes...
Seems incredible, and I think it may be beyond them in votes, but as you say, play things right, get lucky in opposition, and you can appeal to the centre and left while the right doesn't depart, and it is possible. Ambitious, perhaps to ambitious, but the rewards are high if she can hold it together for a month.
Following which she has five years in which to negotiate and cope with the consequences of Brexit.
Not going to be particularly difficult for you to put the cross next to Lucy Powell is it ?
Oh dear! Mrs May is starting to talk bollocks. We may have a hard left government under Corbyn yet.
She's going after patriotic working class voters in Mansfield and Hartlepool. Sod what TSE wants
It's started -lol
I did mention when the tories bring out the social conservative manifesto watch the reactions.
If the Tories nail the marketing of this manifesto, they could top 50% in the polls, and the votes...
Seems incredible, and I think it may be beyond them in votes, but as you say, play things right, get lucky in opposition, and you can appeal to the centre and left while the right doesn't depart, and it is possible. Ambitious, perhaps to ambitious, but the rewards are high if she can hold it together for a month.
Following which she has five years in which to negotiate and cope with the consequences of Brexit.
Good luck with that one.
The higher a majority she gets now, the better chance the party can retain power in five years even if Brexit is a complete disaster.
Farron - some talk of potential challenge, particularly in the event of a blue tide, but probably safe Brake - Leave area, but UKIP vote to squeeze. Seems a goner. Lamb - Ditto. Williams - LDs doing badly in Wales, PC candidate strong local candidate apparently. Probably safe though. Carmichael - Very close last time, but historically very safe Liberal, Holyrood result strong for them. Despite liar case probably safe.
Clegg - No tory tacticals to save him, depends if area which traditionally was tory/Liberal for 30 years sheds the big lab vote from last time. Probable hold, but still in danger.
So I think they may need 4-5 gains just to stand still.
Tim Farron got more than 50% of the vote last time around, and the LDs did very well in the constituency in the locals. While there is a meaningful Leave vote, it was still a Remain area. LD hold.
Tom Brake. I've felt this is the most vulnerable LD seat for long time. Big UKIP vote, Leave area. No Heathrow. Brake is locally popular, but likely Con gain.
Williams. Plaid was a long way behind last time. Probably a narrow LD hold.
Carmichael. 67.4% was the LD share in (believe it or not) both Orkney and Shetland last year, with a big swing away from the SNP. LD hold with an increased majority.
Mulholland. Big Remain constituency and LDs did well in Leeds NW last year and increased their share on both 2014 and 2015, so a likely relatively comfortable LD hold.
Pugh. Conservative + 66% of UKIP well above the LD share. Area voted Remain, which helps, and the locals last year were encouraging for them. But still, a likely Con gain.
Lamb. Con + 66% of UKIP marginally above LD share. Area voted Leave. Very, very close. I think he'll probably hold on (but this may be wishful thinking as I like him).
Clegg. It'll be a three way marginal won't it? Hallam locals last year were very encouraging for the LDs, so I'd reckon he holds it.
Olney. I mustn't let my dislike of Zac blind me. Likely a Conservative (re)gain. Would be a certain (re)gain with any other Conservative candidate.
So, the LDs on 5/6 in their existing seats. I think Twickenham and Edinburgh West are fairly likely. (Heathrow is a bigger issue in Twickenham than Richmond.) And the locals in Cambridge will have been very encouraging for the LDs. Probably one, possibly two more Scottish seats could fall. (Pick from Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Dumbartonshire East and Fife NE.) And add a wildcard for good measure.
LDs 12 would be my guess.
You discount Cheadle and OXWAB?
There must also be a decent chance in Cornwall, as by Rob D's spreadsheet, the Kipper to Con conversion is below average in SW and SE, and above average in E Mids and NE.
Not going to be particularly difficult for you to put the cross next to Lucy Powell is it ?
Oh dear! Mrs May is starting to talk bollocks. We may have a hard left government under Corbyn yet.
She's going after patriotic working class voters in Mansfield and Hartlepool. Sod what TSE wants
It's started -lol
I did mention when the tories bring out the social conservative manifesto watch the reactions.
If the Tories nail the marketing of this manifesto, they could top 50% in the polls, and the votes...
Seems incredible, and I think it may be beyond them in votes, but as you say, play things right, get lucky in opposition, and you can appeal to the centre and left while the right doesn't depart, and it is possible. Ambitious, perhaps to ambitious, but the rewards are high if she can hold it together for a month.
Following which she has five years in which to negotiate and cope with the consequences of Brexit.
Good luck with that one.
The higher a majority she gets now, the better chance the party can retain power in five years even if Brexit is a complete disaster.
If Brexit is a complete disaster, it won't matter much who is in power. Unless of course you think it doesn't matter what happens so long as your team is in charge.
Comments
Looks like 2 Independents, 2 'no label' Independents, Animal Welfare, Monster Raving Loony, Green Loonies, Christian People's and 'The Just Political Party' along with the big boys.
Fun for the count staff.
Recounts ahoy.
David Tredinick
Nicky Morgan
Tom Watson
Chris Bryant
St Vincent of Cable
And i strongly suspect a number of NI candidates
She should listen to me too
If so, how to get rid of the bastards? (to quote John Major's phrase).
I was briefly optimistic about her last summer when she first got in, when she was talking about putting workers in the boardrooms of big companies and proper measures to clamp down on ridiculously high pay, but then she was apparently talked out of it by Philip Hammond. Not to mention her bottling the National Insurance rise just because of a few bad headlines in the Mail.
Agriculture is one of the few areas where the US has run a consistent trade surplus in the last 60 years. The US runs a substantial trade deficit with us. I do not believe there is any trade deal on the table that does not involve us accepting any and all US agricultural produce.
Now - as I said - I think that's a worthwhile trade. It would likely mean meaningfully cheaper produce. But it equally means the UK government loses its ability to regulate agriculture, because it will become politically unacceptable to cost disadvantage domestic production.
I did mention when the tories bring out the social conservative manifesto watch the reactions.
A prophet is not honoured in his own land.
I suspect they won't remain quiet during this campaign.
It might even be a soft brexit.
So much for Brexit leading to the UK becoming a 'laissez-faire' Singapore, with Macron promising to deregulate the French labour market today we are going to be moving to the left of France but with immigration controls
Edit. In fact the WTO rules could mean third party countries could force us to liberalise agricultural imports WITHOUT those countries signing an FTA with us.
Tom Brake. I've felt this is the most vulnerable LD seat for long time. Big UKIP vote, Leave area. No Heathrow. Brake is locally popular, but likely Con gain.
Williams. Plaid was a long way behind last time. Probably a narrow LD hold.
Carmichael. 67.4% was the LD share in (believe it or not) both Orkney and Shetland last year, with a big swing away from the SNP. LD hold with an increased majority.
Mulholland. Big Remain constituency and LDs did well in Leeds NW last year and increased their share on both 2014 and 2015, so a likely relatively comfortable LD hold.
Pugh. Conservative + 66% of UKIP well above the LD share. Area voted Remain, which helps, and the locals last year were encouraging for them. But still, a likely Con gain.
Lamb. Con + 66% of UKIP marginally above LD share. Area voted Leave. Very, very close. I think he'll probably hold on (but this may be wishful thinking as I like him).
Clegg. It'll be a three way marginal won't it? Hallam locals last year were very encouraging for the LDs, so I'd reckon he holds it.
Olney. I mustn't let my dislike of Zac blind me. Likely a Conservative (re)gain. Would be a certain (re)gain with any other Conservative candidate.
So, the LDs on 5/6 in their existing seats. I think Twickenham and Edinburgh West are fairly likely. (Heathrow is a bigger issue in Twickenham than Richmond.) And the locals in Cambridge will have been very encouraging for the LDs. Probably one, possibly two more Scottish seats could fall. (Pick from Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Dumbartonshire East and Fife NE.) And add a wildcard for good measure.
LDs 12 would be my guess.
Can you imagine the uproar if the Tories hired the leader of the Bnp or Britain first?
I don't think they really know what they are supporting.
THIS is how you win big. Not Cameron and Osborne's scrabbling around for a few MP's here and a few MP's there...
https://twitter.com/UKIPPreston/status/863867990932148224
https://twitter.com/MikkiL/status/863870874486747137
7 if you include their debut in 1900.
May's skills would not likely have been sufficient in 2005. Cameron could never appeal inthe way she is now.
More pertinently, we shall soon see if the Corbyn experiment really is retaining previous Labour voters, gaining some, or shedding them, and if it is the latter, they need to take a very hard look at themselves, as it will very much appear to have been a case of appearing to not want the votes of masses of people, and practically pushing them to the opponent.
Denis MacShane @DenisMacShane 8h8 hours ago
Canvassing in S London Labour seat and every 2nd house it was Jeremy. Never heard such hostility in 4 decades.
Good luck with that one.