politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories aim to win a landslide by trying to persuade us that Corbyn might win
One of the most weird features of this election campaign is that the Conservatives are doing everything they can to try to persuade us that Jeremy Corbyn really is in with a chance of becoming next prime minister.
German company Deutsche Bahn runs Arriva Trains Wales, Chiltern, Cross Country, Grand Central, Northern Rail and the Tyne and Wear Metro, and 50% of London Overground.
Dutch company Abellio runs Greater Anglia (ie. out to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex), ScotRail, and 50% of Merseyrail.
As to what happens after the 9th June it's not clear to me. I am amazed thought at just how many of my associates believe it's all about the media - including the BBC - and that if only Corbyn was given a fair chance.....
I have some sympathy with this - not the delusion but the reason why they might accept losing. Many of them genuinely feel cheated. The system is out to stop them and the answer is to fight back rather than compromise with someone Murdoch deems acceptable.
There is actually some decent stuff in the Labour manifesto. Renationalising energy and ploughing its surpluses into renewables can certainly be defended. It makes more sense than May's halfway house price cap in many respects. Renationalising rail is wise - franchising doesn't work, indeed many of the best railways in the UK are those in the public sector. There's no way to defend the existing system where - outside London - trains can only be nationalised to foreign governments but not our own.
Which TOCs in the UK are nationalised?
London Overground TFL Rail Newcastle Metro
Eurostar and East Coast Main Line were too until the Tories sold them off for no good reason other than batshit crazy ideology - they were both well run in the public sector.
Two further franchises are nationalised to France and Germany...
Interestingly the last politician to permanently nationalise a railway to improve it was that well known Commie Boris "Red Bozza" Johnson, who brought the Abelio Greater Anglia into the Overground (Chingford and Waltham Cross to Liverpool St) because the franchisee was running it into the ground.
The French and German governments are subsidising our transport networks. How cool is that?
I think the Italian govt has just bought c2c
It's amazing. State owned entities in Europe are losing money running our transport. You couldn't make it up. As a country we probably make close to a billion from the largesse of European governments.
And yet some utter fucktards want us to turn the cash away.
Someone should calculate the amount and stick it on the side of a bus.
Perhaps Corbyn could get the French and German governments to nationalise all our public services on his behalf. They might stand a chance of running them properly too.
German company Deutsche Bahn runs Arriva Trains Wales, Chiltern, Cross Country, Grand Central, Northern Rail and the Tyne and Wear Metro, and 50% of London Overground.
Dutch company Abellio runs Greater Anglia (ie. out to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex), ScotRail, and 50% of Merseyrail.
Which franchises are "nationalised to France"??
I apologise. It's the Dutch, German and Italian governments who are subsidising our rail fares.
German company Deutsche Bahn runs Arriva Trains Wales, Chiltern, Cross Country, Grand Central, Northern Rail and the Tyne and Wear Metro, and 50% of London Overground.
Dutch company Abellio runs Greater Anglia (ie. out to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex), ScotRail, and 50% of Merseyrail.
Which franchises are "nationalised to France"??
I apologise. It's the Dutch, German and Italian governments who are subsidising our rail fares.
And why would they want to do that? All they all making losses?
It's amazing. State owned entities in Europe are losing money running our transport. You couldn't make it up. As a country we probably make close to a billion from the largesse of European governments.
And yet some utter fucktards want us to turn the cash away.
Isn't it true that European railways aren't significantly cheaper, that when you look at the subsidy they require they are broadly similar in cost for the same types of services?
Fairs are cheaper, but that's because we make the railway user pay, not the taxpayer.
Does that poster really convey the message it's trying to? Surely painting Corbyn as the latest in a series of potential shocks to the establishment might actually encourage people to vote for him, not turn away. It emphasises that if you want a 'worker's Brexit', you won't get it from the Conservatives.
Does that poster really convey the message it's trying to? Surely painting Corbyn as the latest in a series of potential shocks to the establishment might actually encourage people to vote for him, not turn away. It emphasises that if you want a 'worker's Brexit', you won't get it from the Conservatives.
German company Deutsche Bahn runs Arriva Trains Wales, Chiltern, Cross Country, Grand Central, Northern Rail and the Tyne and Wear Metro, and 50% of London Overground.
Dutch company Abellio runs Greater Anglia (ie. out to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex), ScotRail, and 50% of Merseyrail.
Which franchises are "nationalised to France"??
I apologise. It's the Dutch, German and Italian governments who are subsidising our rail fares.
And why would they want to do that? All they all making losses?
Because the managements are compensated on the basis of revenue and not profit; because they effectively have zero cost of capital; because they see long term 'synergies' from running transport services in multiple countries; because they want to go public with a story about being an international transport company; because they want to distract from the poor performance of their national operations.
German company Deutsche Bahn runs Arriva Trains Wales, Chiltern, Cross Country, Grand Central, Northern Rail and the Tyne and Wear Metro, and 50% of London Overground.
Dutch company Abellio runs Greater Anglia (ie. out to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex), ScotRail, and 50% of Merseyrail.
Which franchises are "nationalised to France"??
Sunil, I believe that Deutsche Bahn no longer runs the Tyne and Wear Metro due to poor performance. It's back under the control of Nexus.
As to what happens after the 9th June it's not clear to me. I am amazed thought at just how many of my associates believe it's all about the media - including the BBC - and that if only Corbyn was given a fair chance.....
I have some sympathy with this - not the delusion but the reason why they might accept losing. Many of them genuinely feel cheated. The system is out to stop them and the answer is to fight back rather than compromise with someone Murdoch deems acceptable.
The system out to stop them being...? The voters? I genuinely don't get what system they think is out to get them.
The Tories should stop trying to make a Corbyn win seem more plausible, it feels counter productive. Ok maybe turnout will be a bit depressed in some areas, but battleground areas will work hard to keep it up, and better to harness the once in a generation surge feeling than tell peop,e it's on a knifes edge.
German company Deutsche Bahn runs Arriva Trains Wales, Chiltern, Cross Country, Grand Central, Northern Rail and the Tyne and Wear Metro, and 50% of London Overground.
Dutch company Abellio runs Greater Anglia (ie. out to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex), ScotRail, and 50% of Merseyrail.
Which franchises are "nationalised to France"??
I apologise. It's the Dutch, German and Italian governments who are subsidising our rail fares.
Yes, I saw isam's FPT note about c2c being run by Trenitalia since January!
What Mrs May really needs is a few polls with the Tory lead down to single digits.
Or a good old Tory campaign coitus up.
Perhaps she can be recorded off mic calling voters thick, smelly, or bigots.
I'm given to understand everyone expects that of Tories anyway, they are evil, but it doesn't seem to stop people voting for them. Dead babies didn't sway them in Copeland.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
Delusion has set in amongst Conservative posters on here . They think they are going to overturn any seat whatever the majority .
You said the same in 2015 when I said Yeovil was at risk...
Gotta be right eventually, it's the rule I live by too.
I think I managed to get a whole thread flushed down the memory hole once by luring someone into the trap of slagging off Farage by attributing a Cameron quote to him
German company Deutsche Bahn runs Arriva Trains Wales, Chiltern, Cross Country, Grand Central, Northern Rail and the Tyne and Wear Metro, and 50% of London Overground.
Dutch company Abellio runs Greater Anglia (ie. out to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex), ScotRail, and 50% of Merseyrail.
Which franchises are "nationalised to France"??
Sunil, I believe that Deutsche Bahn no longer runs the Tyne and Wear Metro due to poor performance. It's back under the control of Nexus.
I think I managed to get a whole thread flushed down the memory hole once by luring someone into the trap of slagging off Farage by attributing a Cameron quote to him
Probably because you were talking about jobs and someone called Bob in quick succession.
The poll shows that 44 per cent believe that Britain was right to vote to leave the EU, while 45 per cent think the decision was wrong. This is the third time since the referendum that YouGov has found a majority of people thinking that Britain made a mistake in last year’s vote.
The poll shows that 44 per cent believe that Britain was right to vote to leave the EU, while 45 per cent think the decision was wrong. This is the third time since the referendum that YouGov has found a majority of people thinking that Britain made a mistake in last year’s vote.
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances.
Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
The poll indicates that two thirds of the public and more than half of Labour voters think the party has no clear policy on Brexit, are not sure or picked the wrong option from a list.
Among Labour voters, 13 per cent think that the party is opposed to Brexit and wants to stay in the EU, 9 per cent think it would have a second referendum, 13 per cent think it does not have a policy and 18 per cent are not sure. The rest correctly say the party wants a trade deal with access to the benefits of the single market.
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances.
Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances.
Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
But a LD donor may have that kind of money?
That's a possibility, but the biggest LD donor quit the party. Who else would be in a position to lay down that kind of cash?
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances.
Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
But a LD donor may have that kind of money?
That's a possibility, but the biggest LD donor quit the party. Who else would be in a position to lay down that kind of cash?
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances.
Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
But a LD donor may have that kind of money?
That's a possibility, but the biggest LD donor quit the party. Who else would be in a position to lay down that kind of cash?
Possibly a rich Remainer who wanted Olney to win?
A rich Remain-er who was personally acquainted with Caroline Lucas, and knew her well enough to offer a bribe?
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances.
Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
But a LD donor may have that kind of money?
That's a possibility, but the biggest LD donor quit the party. Who else would be in a position to lay down that kind of cash?
Possibly a rich Remainer who wanted Olney to win?
Is it a crime to bribe someone not to stand in an election? Or is it only a crime to accept a bribe (which the Greens are clear about - they refused the money).
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances.
Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
But a LD donor may have that kind of money?
That's a possibility, but the biggest LD donor quit the party. Who else would be in a position to lay down that kind of cash?
Possibly a rich Remainer who wanted Olney to win?
A rich Remain-er who was personally acquainted with Caroline Lucas, and knew her well enough to offer a bribe?
The poll shows that 44 per cent believe that Britain was right to vote to leave the EU, while 45 per cent think the decision was wrong. This is the third time since the referendum that YouGov has found a majority of people thinking that Britain made a mistake in last year’s vote.
The poll shows that 44 per cent believe that Britain was right to vote to leave the EU, while 45 per cent think the decision was wrong. This is the third time since the referendum that YouGov has found a majority of people thinking that Britain made a mistake in last year’s vote.
Given Yougov had Remain 4% ahead on the eve of the EU referendum where Leave won by 4% I would not take Yougov as the oracle of EU thinking and given May is going to win a landslide on a Leave ticket it is all irrelevant anyway
The poll shows that 44 per cent believe that Britain was right to vote to leave the EU, while 45 per cent think the decision was wrong. This is the third time since the referendum that YouGov has found a majority of people thinking that Britain made a mistake in last year’s vote.
The poll shows that 44 per cent believe that Britain was right to vote to leave the EU, while 45 per cent think the decision was wrong. This is the third time since the referendum that YouGov has found a majority of people thinking that Britain made a mistake in last year’s vote.
The poll shows that 44 per cent believe that Britain was right to vote to leave the EU, while 45 per cent think the decision was wrong. This is the third time since the referendum that YouGov has found a majority of people thinking that Britain made a mistake in last year’s vote.
German company Deutsche Bahn runs Arriva Trains Wales, Chiltern, Cross Country, Grand Central, Northern Rail and the Tyne and Wear Metro, and 50% of London Overground.
Dutch company Abellio runs Greater Anglia (ie. out to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex), ScotRail, and 50% of Merseyrail.
Strange header! Apologies if this has appeared before, but yesterday through my door (I'm in Bristol West) came a leaflet from the Lib Dems in London. I'm too ignorant to know how to get an image of it up, but it says:
"In many parts of the country the Conservatives haven't won in years. VOTING CONSERVATIVE RISKS BRITAIN GETTING PRIME MINISTER CORBYN"
(then there is an image of Corbyn outside No.10 giving a thumbs up to the camera, then underneath....
....wait for it....
"BUT THE LIB DEMS CAN STOP LABOUR WINNING"
I laughed for several minutes and chuckled for hours more. Still can't quite believe it's real, but it's right in front of me now. And then this thread. Precious. Very precious.
(Not, I hasten to add, that I think OGH would have know of this particular leaflet)
Anyone who thought sandals wearers couldn't be corrupt clearly hadn't read about some bloke called Judas.
In contrast to the canonical gospels, which paint Judas as a betrayer who delivered Jesus to the authorities for crucifixion in exchange for money, the Gospel of Judas portrays Judas's actions as done in obedience to instructions given to him by Christ.
Anyone who thought sandals wearers couldn't be corrupt clearly hadn't read about some bloke called Judas.
In contrast to the canonical gospels, which paint Judas as a betrayer who delivered Jesus to the authorities for crucifixion in exchange for money, the Gospel of Judas portrays Judas's actions as done in obedience to instructions given to him by Christ.
Cheater. Why is it when I'm first, people accuse me of nefarious tactics, whereas you actually delete comments to be first.
I don't know what you're talking about.
Well I believe I still have the ability to restore deleted comments.
Perhaps that might help explain things to you
I just met possible the most exciting company I've come across in 20 years. Sadly too late to get in while private, but it's going public next year and I'll fill my boots
Cheater. Why is it when I'm first, people accuse me of nefarious tactics, whereas you actually delete comments to be first.
I don't know what you're talking about.
Well I believe I still have the ability to restore deleted comments.
Perhaps that might help explain things to you
I just met possible the most exciting company I've come across in 20 years. Sadly too late to get in while private, but it's going public next year and I'll fill my boots
I'm sure a negotiator of your calibre can find a way to get a piece of the action before the IPO.
Cheater. Why is it when I'm first, people accuse me of nefarious tactics, whereas you actually delete comments to be first.
I don't know what you're talking about.
Well I believe I still have the ability to restore deleted comments.
Perhaps that might help explain things to you
I just met possible the most exciting company I've come across in 20 years. Sadly too late to get in while private, but it's going public next year and I'll fill my boots
I'm sure a negotiator of your calibre can find a way to get a piece of the action before the IPO.
I suspect if I asked the CEO would create room for me to take a couple of units.
But it would be inappropriate to ask, as it would be an overlap between my professional and personal activities. I'm comfortable when the personal creates benefits for my professional activities; but it's harder when the professional sphere opens up personal gains*
* Although I may invest personally in a 40% IRR first charge instrument to help a client out
German company Deutsche Bahn runs Arriva Trains Wales, Chiltern, Cross Country, Grand Central, Northern Rail and the Tyne and Wear Metro, and 50% of London Overground.
Dutch company Abellio runs Greater Anglia (ie. out to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex), ScotRail, and 50% of Merseyrail.
Just reading more of Labour manifesto...they have literally taken every sweetie from the sweetie shop and put it in there...but it will totally screw job creation with rigid rights from day one, no ZHC, none of this self employed stuff, more paternity leave and it being higher paid etc etc etc.
Will the last small business owner please remember to turn the lights off.
Strange header! Apologies if this has appeared before, but yesterday through my door (I'm in Bristol West) came a leaflet from the Lib Dems in London. I'm too ignorant to know how to get an image of it up, but it says:
"In many parts of the country the Conservatives haven't won in years. VOTING CONSERVATIVE RISKS BRITAIN GETTING PRIME MINISTER CORBYN"
(then there is an image of Corbyn outside No.10 giving a thumbs up to the camera, then underneath....
....wait for it....
"BUT THE LIB DEMS CAN STOP LABOUR WINNING"
I laughed for several minutes and chuckled for hours more. Still can't quite believe it's real, but it's right in front of me now. And then this thread. Precious. Very precious.
(Not, I hasten to add, that I think OGH would have know of this particular leaflet)
"But if PM Corbyn was such a danger why call the election in the first place?" Mike at the click bait again. Silly question. The election has nothing to do with Corbyn, but to do with insufficiency of the Tory majority.
Ruth Davidson has Nicola Sturgeon of a “grubby” attempt to spread “trash” about the UK Government betraying Scotland’s fishermen during Brexit after the First Minister’s claim to have written proof backfired spectacularly.
Morning. So the idiots couldn't even stop their manifesto from being on all the front pages, yet they think we should elect them to run the country?
The last time I saw anything as mad as that manifesto it was written in menses on the wall of a secure psychiatric facility. It will be a net positive for JC though as all that nationalisation bollocks taps into the same vein of narrow minded reactionary thought that gave us Brexit. It is very much in the spirit of nos jours.
I have to admit to being totally surprised that Labour is hitting circa 30% all the time now. They could 32-33 by the end of the campaign.
Me too - it doesn't fit with all the anecdota and voxpops of Labour voters switching to Conservative this time, or the polling in Lab strongholds like the North showing big falls.
Either Labour are stacking up support disproportionately, eg in London, or their switchers are being replaced by previous non-voters (eg the newly energised young), or the polls are wrong.... or the polls are right.
I think the last of these is least likely. But if polls show them ticking up into low 30s, perhaps the leaflets in the thread header will gain some traction. They're designed to counter the local Lab campaigns of "Corbyn won't be pm, so you can risk a vote for as your local MP" which if successful would depress Mrs May's majority.
There is growing speculation of another unexpected and shocking sacking.
Sources in Bedford have revealed exclusively to JNN that TSE may already have been terminated by OGH after the former Ozzie groupie refused to desist his investigation into the "Thread First" occupied by Smithson Jnr, well known for his avatar links to President Putin.
Mike Smithson was unavailable for comment this morning.
Morning. So the idiots couldn't even stop their manifesto from being on all the front pages, yet they think we should elect them to run the country?
Do you think it was incompetence or smart thinking ? First time I have seen something being done with a plan.
I usually say that it's better to ascribe these things to incompetence rather than malace - a view that is reinforced every time a spokesperson appears on the radio or TV without understanding their own department's policies or the costs of them.
I hope now for an utter landslide, so the remaining sensibles in Labour can get rid of the 1970s throwbacks and provide a decent opposition - with a route back to power when the government eventually messes up, as of course they all do.
What Mrs May really needs is a few polls with the Tory lead down to single digits.
Or a good old Tory campaign coitus up.
Perhaps she can be recorded off mic calling voters thick, smelly, or bigots.
She already has a number of polls putting Labour on 31%, the same as last time. Confirms Nick Palmer's reports of the Labour vote holding steady.
I have to admit to being totally surprised that Labour is hitting circa 30% all the time now. They could 32-33 by the end of the campaign.
Actually, apart from Abbott's plane crash, things have gone relatively smoothly.
Surely the big worry for the sensible Labour supporters is that the vote share now holds up? If Corbyn gets 30% he'll have to be dragged from the leader's chair in a wooden box.
I have to admit to being totally surprised that Labour is hitting circa 30% all the time now. They could 32-33 by the end of the campaign.
Me too - it doesn't fit with all the anecdota and voxpops of Labour voters switching to Conservative this time, or the polling in Lab strongholds like the North showing big falls.
Either Labour are stacking up support disproportionately, eg in London, or their switchers are being replaced by previous non-voters (eg the newly energised young), or the polls are wrong.... or the polls are right.
I think the last of these is least likely. But if polls show them ticking up into low 30s, perhaps the leaflets in the thread header will gain some traction. They're designed to counter the local Lab campaigns of "Corbyn won't be pm, so you can risk a vote for as your local MP" which if successful would depress Mrs May's majority.
Labour could easily hit 30% if none of the other centre left parties gain any traction. But, they'll still get hammered if the Conservatives get close to 50%.
Toby Young @toadmeister To nationalise railways Corbs would have to win next 4 GEs. Last rail franchise comes up for renewal in 2036, by which time he'll be 87.
Toby Young @toadmeister To nationalise railways Corbs would have to win next 4 GEs. Last rail franchise comes up for renewal in 2036, by which time he'll be 87.
I didn't realize a mere railway franchise could frustrate the will of parliament.
Jamie Ross @JamieRoss7 Coburn still uncertain how many UKIP Scotland candidates there'll be. He's waiting to see "who has managed to fill the forms in correctly".
Toby Young @toadmeister To nationalise railways Corbs would have to win next 4 GEs. Last rail franchise comes up for renewal in 2036, by which time he'll be 87.
I didn't realize a mere railway franchise could frustrate the will of parliament.
I blame BREXIT ....
Isn't the proposal to "nationalise when renewal comes up"? If not, we should be told!
Toby Young @toadmeister To nationalise railways Corbs would have to win next 4 GEs. Last rail franchise comes up for renewal in 2036, by which time he'll be 87.
I didn't realize a mere railway franchise could frustrate the will of parliament.
I blame BREXIT ....
Isn't the proposal to "nationalise when renewal comes up"? If not, we should be told!
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances. Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
Or the Conservative Dirty Tricks Department just made it up.
I have to admit to being totally surprised that Labour is hitting circa 30% all the time now. They could 32-33 by the end of the campaign.
Me too - it doesn't fit with all the anecdota and voxpops of Labour voters switching to Conservative this time, or the polling in Lab strongholds like the North showing big falls.
Either Labour are stacking up support disproportionately, eg in London, or their switchers are being replaced by previous non-voters (eg the newly energised young), or the polls are wrong.... or the polls are right.
I think the last of these is least likely. But if polls show them ticking up into low 30s, perhaps the leaflets in the thread header will gain some traction. They're designed to counter the local Lab campaigns of "Corbyn won't be pm, so you can risk a vote for as your local MP" which if successful would depress Mrs May's majority.
The stories of switching are probably inflated by people who see themselves as Labour but flirted with UKIP last time. And the collapse of UKIP has sent some former Labour people back home, balancing off those who are switching directly from Lab to Con. It's too simplistic just to treat every UKIP voter as a potential conservative - many voted ukip precseily because they weren't the Tories.
What is clear from the polls is that the Tories have gone from 36% in 2015 to 46-50% this time, which is a dramatic shift - 50% is surely the ceiling since there will always be a big chunk of the population would would never vote Tory. The non-Tory half of the population has to vote for someone, barring a few abstainers.
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances. Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
Or the Conservative Dirty Tricks Department just made it up.
With sleeper agents in the Green party?
And in fact the offer of the donation was not denied by Lucas on the show yesterday. She said the donation went through their ethics procedure and was rejected. Although I should add that she said this was after the candidate had already stood down.
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances. Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
Or the Conservative Dirty Tricks Department just made it up.
With sleeper agents in the Green party?
It's a non-story, not least because it never happened and wasn't the reason the Greens stood down in the first place. They are standing down in lots of places this time, most recently Southport announced yesterday.
The poll shows that 44 per cent believe that Britain was right to vote to leave the EU, while 45 per cent think the decision was wrong. This is the third time since the referendum that YouGov has found a majority of people thinking that Britain made a mistake in last year’s vote.
I think that such findings have consistently been linked with a smaller Tory lead, down around the 16 level rather than up to 20. Which makes sense if this is a sampling issue.
But I agree with the thread header. Basing this campaign around the threat of Corbyn becoming PM is a mistake because no one believes it is possible. Rather, as May herself has done, the emphasis should be on giving her the strongest possible hand to negotiate Brexit on the country's behalf. Marine Le Pen had a better chance of winning than Corbyn and she had no chance at all.
Just watched the bit on the Daily Politics about the bung in Richmond. Has this got legs?
Personal view: no. Why? Because I don't believe it's true. The LDs simply don't have anywhere near that kind of money. Their overdraft is close to maxed out, and they couldn't come up with £250k under any normal circumstances. Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
Or the Conservative Dirty Tricks Department just made it up.
With sleeper agents in the Green party?
It's a non-story, not least because it never happened and wasn't the reason the Greens stood down in the first place. They are standing down in lots of places this time, most recently Southport announced yesterday.
Lucas said someone did offer £250,000, and that it went through their ethical checks, and was rejected. The Greens didn't do anything wrong here, whoever offered the money did.
Morning. So the idiots couldn't even stop their manifesto from being on all the front pages, yet they think we should elect them to run the country?
Do you think it was incompetence or smart thinking ? First time I have seen something being done with a plan.
Labour HQ is stuffed with people who want to undermine the Corbyn campaign. There was an article in one of the journals about it recently. So the suspect list for the potential leaker won't be a short one.
But Labour's problem isn't it's policies anyway, but the lack of trust that they will be able to manage things well or pay for any of them.
Comments
Dutch company Abellio runs Greater Anglia (ie. out to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex), ScotRail, and 50% of Merseyrail.
Which franchises are "nationalised to France"??
I have some sympathy with this - not the delusion but the reason why they might accept losing. Many of them genuinely feel cheated. The system is out to stop them and the answer is to fight back rather than compromise with someone Murdoch deems acceptable.
Perhaps Corbyn could get the French and German governments to nationalise all our public services on his behalf. They might stand a chance of running them properly too.
Up there with Judas, Benedict Arnold, Kim Philby, and Mark Reckless.
Or a good old Tory campaign coitus up.
Perhaps she can be recorded off mic calling voters thick, smelly, or bigots.
Fairs are cheaper, but that's because we make the railway user pay, not the taxpayer.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-35800733
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-39466348
The Tories should stop trying to make a Corbyn win seem more plausible, it feels counter productive. Ok maybe turnout will be a bit depressed in some areas, but battleground areas will work hard to keep it up, and better to harness the once in a generation surge feeling than tell peop,e it's on a knifes edge.
Perhaps that might help explain things to you
Corbyn = Tory sleeper agent!
Are they also going to propose lift attendants are mandatory? Re-introduction of horse and cart as Uber replacement?
The poll shows that 44 per cent believe that Britain was right to vote to leave the EU, while 45 per cent think the decision was wrong. This is the third time since the referendum that YouGov has found a majority of people thinking that Britain made a mistake in last year’s vote.
Which leads me to two conclusions: one, it was a joke ("man, I'd pay you £250k to stand aside", which both parties knew wasn't actually possible; or two, it never happened.
The poll indicates that two thirds of the public and more than half of Labour voters think the party has no clear policy on Brexit, are not sure or picked the wrong option from a list.
Among Labour voters, 13 per cent think that the party is opposed to Brexit and wants to stay in the EU, 9 per cent think it would have a second referendum, 13 per cent think it does not have a policy and 18 per cent are not sure. The rest correctly say the party wants a trade deal with access to the benefits of the single market.
Again, I just don't buy it.
"In many parts of the country the Conservatives haven't won in years.
VOTING CONSERVATIVE RISKS BRITAIN GETTING PRIME MINISTER CORBYN"
(then there is an image of Corbyn outside No.10 giving a thumbs up to the camera, then underneath....
....wait for it....
"BUT THE LIB DEMS CAN STOP LABOUR WINNING"
I laughed for several minutes and chuckled for hours more. Still can't quite believe it's real, but it's right in front of me now. And then this thread. Precious. Very precious.
(Not, I hasten to add, that I think OGH would have know of this particular leaflet)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gospel_of_Judas
But it would be inappropriate to ask, as it would be an overlap between my professional and personal activities. I'm comfortable when the personal creates benefits for my professional activities; but it's harder when the professional sphere opens up personal gains*
* Although I may invest personally in a 40% IRR first charge instrument to help a client out
Will the last small business owner please remember to turn the lights off.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/05/10/snapchat-posts-huge-loss-maiden-results-disappoint/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/10/ruth-davidson-accuses-nicola-sturgeon-grubby-spin-brexit-fishing
http://uk.businessinsider.com/rod-rosenstein-james-comey-firing-2017-5?r=US&IR=T
The obligatory season of over-analysing campaign bumph is upon us. - Just bin it.
Actually, apart from Abbott's plane crash, things have gone relatively smoothly.
Either Labour are stacking up support disproportionately, eg in London, or their switchers are being replaced by previous non-voters (eg the newly energised young), or the polls are wrong.... or the polls are right.
I think the last of these is least likely. But if polls show them ticking up into low 30s, perhaps the leaflets in the thread header will gain some traction. They're designed to counter the local Lab campaigns of "Corbyn won't be pm, so you can risk a vote for as your local MP" which if successful would depress Mrs May's majority.
Sources in Bedford have revealed exclusively to JNN that TSE may already have been terminated by OGH after the former Ozzie groupie refused to desist his investigation into the "Thread First" occupied by Smithson Jnr, well known for his avatar links to President Putin.
Mike Smithson was unavailable for comment this morning.
I hope now for an utter landslide, so the remaining sensibles in Labour can get rid of the 1970s throwbacks and provide a decent opposition - with a route back to power when the government eventually messes up, as of course they all do.
Toby Young @toadmeister
To nationalise railways Corbs would have to win next 4 GEs. Last rail franchise comes up for renewal in 2036, by which time he'll be 87.
I blame BREXIT ....
Coburn still uncertain how many UKIP Scotland candidates there'll be. He's waiting to see "who has managed to fill the forms in correctly".
Superfluous "R" there me thinks ....
What is clear from the polls is that the Tories have gone from 36% in 2015 to 46-50% this time, which is a dramatic shift - 50% is surely the ceiling since there will always be a big chunk of the population would would never vote Tory. The non-Tory half of the population has to vote for someone, barring a few abstainers.
And in fact the offer of the donation was not denied by Lucas on the show yesterday. She said the donation went through their ethics procedure and was rejected. Although I should add that she said this was after the candidate had already stood down.
But I agree with the thread header. Basing this campaign around the threat of Corbyn becoming PM is a mistake because no one believes it is possible. Rather, as May herself has done, the emphasis should be on giving her the strongest possible hand to negotiate Brexit on the country's behalf. Marine Le Pen had a better chance of winning than Corbyn and she had no chance at all.
But Labour's problem isn't it's policies anyway, but the lack of trust that they will be able to manage things well or pay for any of them.