"Jeremy Corbyn did not attend a Labour poster launch this morning because he is dealing with "internal matters", elections co-ordinator Ian Lavery told reporters at the event.
"Mr Corbyn is doing the preparation for a very important meeting this afternoon.
"He was meant to be here but this thing's happened and Mr Corbyn is dealing with internal matters within the party and he's dealing with preparation work for what is a fantastic manifesto."
A lot of the public won't delve into the manifesto. They might pick up a general picture of re-nationalisation which will appeal to some and put off others. What almost everyone will hear about is that the Labour manifesto is 'leaked' and that will play into concerns about security, poor leadership and chaos.
Hmmm.....If this 'leaked' manifesto is not a hoax then it will be torn to pieces over the coming days by every non-lefty news outlet. And the MSM will probably report the outraged reaction it is going to foster. I suspect what the largely non-attentive public will hear is 'Labour are communists'.
It's often the small things, the weird policies about LGBT smokers, TV diversity and puppy sales that the press can used as attack lines that will be chime with the public. for the Tories I think Corbyn is best ridiculed rather than trying to engage in ideological arguments.
If it's the small things - because they are easy to understand I guess - then Mrs May would have been better off not mentioning fox hunting.
Have just been looking at this draft energy policy. The Guardian are claiming that it doesn't mean renationalisation - that instead, the distribution networks will be renationalised and local companies will be set up to compete with private providers.
However, I think their analysis is wrong. It's poorly phrased and the wording is ambiguous, but it states at the start that energy companies will be taken 'back into public ownership.' That means nationalisation. And that is of course conceded by the Grauniad with regard to the networks.
What's incredible, and where the Guardian are getting hung up, is the last clause. Labour say they want 'at least one publicly owned energy company in every region of the UK', talking a lot of rubbish about how this will be 'democratically accountable' (which as anyone with a brain will know is a lie - at that level, such things are negligible political concerns).
They seem to mean - incredibly - that they want separate companies owned by the same people (local councillors, de facto) actually competing with each other. I suppose this is their sop to the market system but it looks to me more like a recipe for chaos, cartels and power cuts.
Anyone still think the detail of this will be popular?
A belated reply, I think they probably want to emulate Sweden, Denmark or Germany where energy isn't in 100% private ownership..
Or the US where 25% of electricity comes from public companies like Los Angeles Water and Power or shock horror, nationalised ones, i.e the Tennesee Valley Authority and Bonneville Power Administration (NW USA).
Thatcher deliberately made it very complex to reverse privatisation, so I think they'd have done better to promise a royal commission or other detailed and expert review of the options before deciding on a way forward.
They could though promise in their first term a reversal of the 2002 retail deregulation which, ahem, Labour introduced. Returning to the regulation we have for water would block some but not all of the rip-offs.
"One under-reported feature of the polls post-2015 is that there has been little Lab-Con direct swing. That has changed in the last few months but it still amounts to only about 3% at best."
Which taken together implies a (gross) switch of 11% (Guardian) or 14% (YouGov). Take off 1-2% moving the other way (yes, they do exist), and out of Lab's 30% from GE2015, that amounts to the 3% of voters I quoted in my original post.
Sky News running a 'can Farron lose Westmorland' story
He could lose it. But he probably won't. Because:
1. He got over 50% at the last election in the seat, and the LDs vote share has actually risen (albeit marginally) since the last GE. 2. Party leaders usually get a boost. 3. The LDs increased their vote share in the wards that make up the constituency last Thursday. 4. The constituency voted Remain. 5. UKIP only got 6% last time around, so there's not a lot for the Conservatives to pick up there.
My bet is that Farron will get 45-50% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 35-40%.
Hmm. You seem to be implying renationalisation must be bad because it's Corbyn's policy, and Corbyn has other policies on trade unions that you think are bad.
That would be OK as an anti-Corbyn argument, but it was just renationalisation per se I was asking about.
But you aren't going to get nationalisation on its own, you will get everything else Corbyn plans as well. Giving a lot more power to intransigent trade unions doesn't sound like a good way of making the railways run better to me.
None of this is going to happen anyway, because Theresa May is going to be reelected (almost certainly!).
I was just trying to ask a question about people's views of renationalisation of the railways.
If you are old enough to remember British Rail it is unlikely you'd ask the question. As a nationalised industry it evidently believed its purpose was to provide employment to its staff and passengers were an irritating inconvenience. If you didn't like it tough luck. For those who don't remember pre-privatisation industries (3 months for a phone line, anyone? Then wait in the whole day in the forlorn hope an engineer would actually show up) I can understand the superficial attraction - but look at the responses of people who have actual experience of them.
It wasn't either great or awful, but anyway everyone has mnoved on (I can cite examples of terrible customer service in the private sector back then, and they're not unknown now). The ultra-efficient Passort Office is a good example of a public service (with a new IT system that was delivered on time) that works well. By and large, you get the same people working in the system either way. Real competition does sometimes help but the franchise system doesn't provide that. And if you don't like a hypothetical state-managed Southern you can vote out the bastards responsible for it. How do you vote out a private quasi-monopoly?
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
"One under-reported feature of the polls post-2015 is that there has been little Lab-Con direct swing. That has changed in the last few months but it still amounts to only about 3% at best."
Which taken together implies a (gross) switch of 11% (Guardian) or 14% (YouGov). Take off 1-2% moving the other way (yes, they do exist), and out of Lab's 30% from GE2015, that amounts to the 3% of voters I quoted in my original post.
Fair enough. I read your comment as saying that only 3% gross of Labour voters would switch, not 3% net of all voters.
I'm a Southern season ticket holder. I think nationalisation is a terrible idea.
And because I'm a Southern season ticket holder I also think abolishing the Trades Union Act is a terrible idea.
But TFL is effectively a national owned train company, that seems to do quite well, actually I would love that sort of set up to organise transport around the UK rather than the current mix of profit takers.....
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
That also backs up what he said about the bigger regional picture.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
Yes, the area does not appear to be regretting turning from the LDs yet, at least not as much as people turning toward the Tories.
I am dismayed that people on here (RobD I mean you) appear to be falling for this nonsense about the Lib Dem supposedly offering the Greens £250K to stand down. Either you are letting your own party affiliations blind you to the obvious or you are being deliberately provocative or you are not very bright.
No-one in the Lib Dems would do that. But for those of you who think something being ethically wrong is not enough to stop a political party doing it, you might also like to consider that the Lib Dems do not have £250K to give the Greens or anyone else. We really don't.
Tom Watson arrives at Labour's Clause V meeting and tells us "Its not a great day for the Labour Party"
Trouble at tha mill.
What a grumpy gus. Labour's doing fine, Tom, I heard the leader say so. Closing the gap on the Tories, people want a change and all that.
""Jeremy Corbyn did not attend a Labour poster launch this morning because he is dealing with "internal matters", elections co-ordinator Ian Lavery told reporters at the event."
"internal matters" sounds really ominous to me. Kangaroo court for whoever leaked the manifesto?
This Labour manifesto. Bloody hell. Is it real? If it is the polls will move over the next few days. Makes the longest suicide note look positively sensible. Telegraph absolutely monstering it today.
Who reads the fucking Telegraph ?
I do.. The paper edition twice a week and online for free..
I also read the Grauniad, The D Mail, Th Mirros and the Sub.. the latter take 2 minutes each each. All on line.
The Telegraph has lots of faults. So do the rest.
I suspect you're a typical Left winger who cannot stand reading opinions that conflict with your beliefs... :-)
And on what basis do you suppose that a typical left winger can't stand reading opinions that conflict with their beliefs?
I thought that Sotham's quote "Who reads the fucking Telegraph" did.
Tom Watson arrives at Labour's Clause V meeting and tells us "Its not a great day for the Labour Party"
Trouble at tha mill.
What a grumpy gus. Labour's doing fine, Tom, I heard the leader say so. Closing the gap on the Tories, people want a change and all that.
""Jeremy Corbyn did not attend a Labour poster launch this morning because he is dealing with "internal matters", elections co-ordinator Ian Lavery told reporters at the event."
"internal matters" sounds really ominous to me. Kangaroo court for whoever leaked the manifesto?
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Tom Watson arrives at Labour's Clause V meeting and tells us "Its not a great day for the Labour Party"
Trouble at tha mill.
What a grumpy gus. Labour's doing fine, Tom, I heard the leader say so. Closing the gap on the Tories, people want a change and all that.
""Jeremy Corbyn did not attend a Labour poster launch this morning because he is dealing with "internal matters", elections co-ordinator Ian Lavery told reporters at the event."
"internal matters" sounds really ominous to me. Kangaroo court for whoever leaked the manifesto?
Corbyn does not do Kangaroo Courts.
He does do Manifestos that mean.
For 95% of UK citizens, their life is improved
For the 5% their life is unaltered, but should feel "enriched" to help UK progress
Is it me, or is Corbyn's power over the labour party growing?
I'm less and less sure that, regardless of what happens in the GE he's going to be ditched.
Not sure, but the man loves campaigning, and has personally seemed less ruffled and more confident in recent weeks, which probably helps when surrounded by headless chickens.
I'm a Southern season ticket holder. I think nationalisation is a terrible idea.
And because I'm a Southern season ticket holder I also think abolishing the Trades Union Act is a terrible idea.
But TFL is effectively a national owned train company, that seems to do quite well, actually I would love that sort of set up to organise transport around the UK rather than the current mix of profit takers.....
Indeed at least Londoners have one arse to kick under a transparent public brand. It's not clear to me why nationalisation is fine in London, and outside London to foreign governments, but not outside London to our own government. It is similarly odd that bus regulation is fine and dandy in London but not outside London. Funny old world.
Yes, fair points and I think you and I have had this discussion before (not that that ever stopped PBers!). I guess I'm just glad Labour has put nationalisation as an option back up for debate. The existing settlement - franchising or nothing (outside London) - is patently absurd.
Is it me, or is Corbyn's power over the labour party growing?
I'm less and less sure that, regardless of what happens in the GE he's going to be ditched.
He has taken advantage of the party's inability to wield the knife to consolidate. I wonder if he's not, in fact, planning to split out the moderates on his terms and keep the Labour name for a hard left movement
Sky News running a 'can Farron lose Westmorland' story
He could lose it. But he probably won't. Because:
1. He got over 50% at the last election in the seat, and the LDs vote share has actually risen (albeit marginally) since the last GE. 2. Party leaders usually get a boost. 3. The LDs increased their vote share in the wards that make up the constituency last Thursday. 4. The constituency voted Remain. 5. UKIP only got 6% last time around, so there's not a lot for the Conservatives to pick up there.
My bet is that Farron will get 45-50% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 35-40%.
LibDem sign boards abound in Westmorland like a host of golden daffodils.
Tom Watson arrives at Labour's Clause V meeting and tells us "Its not a great day for the Labour Party"
Trouble at tha mill.
What a grumpy gus. Labour's doing fine, Tom, I heard the leader say so. Closing the gap on the Tories, people want a change and all that.
""Jeremy Corbyn did not attend a Labour poster launch this morning because he is dealing with "internal matters", elections co-ordinator Ian Lavery told reporters at the event."
"internal matters" sounds really ominous to me. Kangaroo court for whoever leaked the manifesto?
Corbyn does not do Kangaroo Courts.
He does do Manifestos that mean.
For 95% of UK citizens, their life is improved
For the 5% their life is unaltered, but should feel "enriched" to help UK progress
Under Corbyn, about 95% would have their lives made worse.
Is it me, or is Corbyn's power over the labour party growing?
I'm less and less sure that, regardless of what happens in the GE he's going to be ditched.
He has taken advantage of the party's inability to wield the knife to consolidate. I wonder if he's not, in fact, planning to split out the moderates on his terms and keep the Labour name for a hard left movement
You say that. My theory is he is being made to walk the plank this morning, and he leaked the manifesto in a last ditch attempt to ensure the election is fought on his terms.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
This Labour manifesto. Bloody hell. Is it real? If it is the polls will move over the next few days. Makes the longest suicide note look positively sensible. Telegraph absolutely monstering it today.
Who reads the fucking Telegraph ?
I do.. The paper edition twice a week and online for free..
I also read the Grauniad, The D Mail, Th Mirros and the Sub.. the latter take 2 minutes each each. All on line.
The Telegraph has lots of faults. So do the rest.
I suspect you're a typical Left winger who cannot stand reading opinions that conflict with your beliefs... :-)
And on what basis do you suppose that a typical left winger can't stand reading opinions that conflict with their beliefs?
I thought that Sotham's quote "Who reads the fucking Telegraph" did.
Ascribing the quote to the wrong poster (& misspelling their name to boot) might slightly devalue your forensic point about typical left wingers.
Indeed at least Londoners have one arse to kick under a transparent public brand. It's not clear to me why nationalisation is fine in London, and outside London to foreign governments, but not outside London to our own government. It is similarly odd that bus regulation is fine and dandy in London but not outside London. Funny old world.
The tube is hardly a great advert for the wonders of nationalisation. Always on strike and expensive.
I'm a Southern season ticket holder. I think nationalisation is a terrible idea.
And because I'm a Southern season ticket holder I also think abolishing the Trades Union Act is a terrible idea.
But TFL is effectively a national owned train company, that seems to do quite well, actually I would love that sort of set up to organise transport around the UK rather than the current mix of profit takers.....
Nice post from someone on the sharp end.
The old privatisation v nationalisation argument is a false binary. The key point is: how do you get management to act in the public interest (getting the trains to run reliably, how to invest to improve the service, how to strengthen the role of public transport over time). TFL is a great example of an organisation that appears to be doing very well, because its structure is very effective at acting in the public interest.
Neither public or private gets you the public interest by default. Unless competition acts to keep prices down (and in Southern's case, competition is entirely missing) then you need some sort of government intervention. Simples.
Is it me, or is Corbyn's power over the labour party growing?
I'm less and less sure that, regardless of what happens in the GE he's going to be ditched.
He has taken advantage of the party's inability to wield the knife to consolidate. I wonder if he's not, in fact, planning to split out the moderates on his terms and keep the Labour name for a hard left movement
You say that. My theory is he is being made to walk the plank this morning, and he leaked the manifesto in a last ditch attempt to ensure the election is fought on his terms.
That would be am even more bizarre election suicide than only standing in 3 of 59 seats!
A lot of the public won't delve into the manifesto. They might pick up a general picture of re-nationalisation which will appeal to some and put off others. What almost everyone will hear about is that the Labour manifesto is 'leaked' and that will play into concerns about security, poor leadership and chaos.
Hmmm.....If this 'leaked' manifesto is not a hoax then it will be torn to pieces over the coming days by every non-lefty news outlet. And the MSM will probably report the outraged reaction it is going to foster. I suspect what the largely non-attentive public will hear is 'Labour are communists'.
It's often the small things, the weird policies about LGBT smokers, TV diversity and puppy sales that the press can used as attack lines that will be chime with the public. for the Tories I think Corbyn is best ridiculed rather than trying to engage in ideological arguments.
If it's the small things - because they are easy to understand I guess - then Mrs May would have been better off not mentioning fox hunting.
Also in Marxist manifesto....Driverless trains will be banned.
Luddites protecting the unions not the people. If they are willing to do it for trains, things like uber have to be worried. Although given the crazy labour reforms I doubt uber would be able to operate in the Venezuelan utopia jezza wants.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Mark
Do you think there will be no Brexit effect in the GE. Looks like the area voted 60% leave and a 6000 ukip vote to squeeze - are there any local factors that I'm missing?
The LibDems actually increased their vote in CS&ER in 2015, but still lost it to an SNP surge. They also improved their vote share in the Holyrood elections, while the SNP slipped back.
I don't know if there will be enough unionist tactical voting to hand it to the LDs. But it's possible. I'd probably want 2-1 rather than the evens currently on offer.
Tom Watson arrives at Labour's Clause V meeting and tells us "Its not a great day for the Labour Party"
Trouble at tha mill.
What a grumpy gus. Labour's doing fine, Tom, I heard the leader say so. Closing the gap on the Tories, people want a change and all that.
""Jeremy Corbyn did not attend a Labour poster launch this morning because he is dealing with "internal matters", elections co-ordinator Ian Lavery told reporters at the event."
"internal matters" sounds really ominous to me. Kangaroo court for whoever leaked the manifesto?
Corbyn does not do Kangaroo Courts.
He does do Manifestos that mean.
For 95% of UK citizens, their life is improved
For the 5% their life is unaltered, but should feel "enriched" to help UK progress
So the manifesto isn't going to be as leaked then? Intriguing.
(2) Voters aren't universally impressed by the strength and stability offered by TMT.
How many PMs in the last 25 years have had better ratings?
A question to be taken seriously, so poked around the IPSOS Mori archive as they have been asking essentially the same satisfaction question since the 1970's. Theresa May's ratings are good, but not unusually good. For example only 4% higher satisfaction than Cameron at the same point in his premiership.
Hmm. Not a bad LD drop last time, but no John Thurso, not a huge majority but not a huge amount of SLAB or SCON to squeeze, rose in share but did not gain a Holyrood seat covering part of the area.
Seems like with a good LD candidate and a less good SNP candidate they'd be in with a shout at least, although people continue to elect not liked MPs all the time.
Also, from this part of the story
One member, who wished to remain anonymous but provided BuzzFeed News with evidence of her membership of the Sutherland branch,
Identifying the source's gender seems an unnecessary way to make it easier to figure out who taddled.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
North Cornwall local elections LDems 51% Con 34.5% UKIP 0.2% yes zero . 2 % Squeezing the UKIP vote to nothing did not help the Conservatives .
Under Corbyn, about 95% would have their lives made worse.
All the talk about the nice things spending will buy is irrelevant. The kind of Britain Labour wants is one where private business will be much diminished, we are likely to see a brain drain, and tax receipts will be miserable whilst spending soars. The idea that 95% will be no worse off, even if only in tax terms, is laughable.
Also in Marxist manifesto....Driverless trains will be banned.
Luddites protecting the unions not the people. If they are willing to do it for trains, things like uber have to be worried.
Workers are people.
Tories protecting the Southern Rail bosses bonuses and allowing a system that Southern profits more when no trains run is your Torycrazynomic alternative.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Mark
Do you think there will be no Brexit effect in the GE. Looks like the area voted 60% leave and a 6000 ukip vote to squeeze - are there any local factors that I'm missing?
The UKIP vote was squeezed to 0.2% last week , it did not go Conservative .
anyone who has to travel cross country on a Sunday, relying on public transport to get to/from the station needs to have a long hard think about the transport system and their vote
Tom Watson arrives at Labour's Clause V meeting and tells us "Its not a great day for the Labour Party"
Trouble at tha mill.
What a grumpy gus. Labour's doing fine, Tom, I heard the leader say so. Closing the gap on the Tories, people want a change and all that.
""Jeremy Corbyn did not attend a Labour poster launch this morning because he is dealing with "internal matters", elections co-ordinator Ian Lavery told reporters at the event."
"internal matters" sounds really ominous to me. Kangaroo court for whoever leaked the manifesto?
Corbyn does not do Kangaroo Courts.
He does do Manifestos that mean.
For 95% of UK citizens, their life is improved
For the 5% their life is unaltered, but should feel "enriched" to help UK progress
Under Corbyn, about 95% would have their lives made worse.
Also in Marxist manifesto....Driverless trains will be banned.
Luddites protecting the unions not the people. If they are willing to do it for trains, things like uber have to be worried. Although given the crazy labour reforms I doubt uber would be able to operate in the Venezuelan utopia jezza wants.
"Venezuelan Utopia". Love it!
Get Lynton on the phone: "Drop 'coalition of chaos' Mr Crosby, we've got the doozy!"
I can see a Youtube video set to a Harry Belafonte track even as I type...
First: it is not a franchise, it is structured as a concession similar to London Overground or TFL Rail. All ticket income goes direct to DfT. Does this suggest that its problems arise due to poor DfT management compared with TfL?
Second: Southern Rail is only one part of a wider concession: Govia Thameslink Rail which covers the Thameslink services and the Great Northern services out of Kings Cross as well as the Gatwick Express. These services have suffered less than Southern, perhaps because the unions have not been striking in these services?
Thirdly: The London Overground concession is held by Arriva (i.e. A sub of Deutsche Bahn) and TfL Rail concession is held by MTR (owned by Hong Kong state railway). Both are not nationalised, it is a branding issue.
Fourthly: GTR is a very big concession, around 20% of all rain journeys in GB are made on GTR trains. It is probably too big. In comparison the whole Netherlands railway carries only about one third more passengers than GTR alone. This suggests that on refranchising it would be split up.
Sky News running a 'can Farron lose Westmorland' story
He could lose it. But he probably won't. Because:
1. He got over 50% at the last election in the seat, and the LDs vote share has actually risen (albeit marginally) since the last GE. 2. Party leaders usually get a boost. 3. The LDs increased their vote share in the wards that make up the constituency last Thursday. 4. The constituency voted Remain. 5. UKIP only got 6% last time around, so there's not a lot for the Conservatives to pick up there.
My bet is that Farron will get 45-50% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 35-40%.
LibDem sign boards abound in Westmorland like a host of golden daffodils.
Are the Tories even targeting W&L? Surely Cumbria Tories should be concentrating on Workington?
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
I'd agree with this. St Ives is very much middle class artsy, however there are still 5000 ukip votes for the Tories to squeeze and there are 25000 leave voters to target well above the 18000 received by the Tory at the last election
Sky News running a 'can Farron lose Westmorland' story
He could lose it. But he probably won't. Because:
1. He got over 50% at the last election in the seat, and the LDs vote share has actually risen (albeit marginally) since the last GE. 2. Party leaders usually get a boost. 3. The LDs increased their vote share in the wards that make up the constituency last Thursday. 4. The constituency voted Remain. 5. UKIP only got 6% last time around, so there's not a lot for the Conservatives to pick up there.
My bet is that Farron will get 45-50% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 35-40%.
LibDem sign boards abound in Westmorland like a host of golden daffodils.
Are the Tories even targeting W&L? Surely Cumbria Tories should be concentrating on Workington?
Total guess, but I would think a lot of talk of winning Westmoreland, and similar seats, is more in the hope that a Tory surge sweeps all before it rather than committing a great many resources to such an area.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
North Cornwall local elections LDems 51% Con 34.5% UKIP 0.2% yes zero . 2 % Squeezing the UKIP vote to nothing did not help the Conservatives .
Are we to presume that bin collection elections and a General Election are the same thing now?
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
North Cornwall local elections LDems 51% Con 34.5% UKIP 0.2% yes zero . 2 % Squeezing the UKIP vote to nothing did not help the Conservatives .
Are we to presume that bin collection elections and a General Election are the same thing now?
Yes. Even though we were also told the LDs would make gains all across Cornwall, and they went backwards. But this time it is correct.
I Presume jezza is waiting until his second term before he bans all robots in factories.
I'd have thought he'd be in favour of working robots - they could be programmed to reliably vote Labour, whereas distressingly too many of the working classes persist in not doing so.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
I'd agree with this. St Ives is very much middle class artsy, however there are still 5000 ukip votes for the Tories to squeeze and there are 25000 leave voters to target well above the 18000 received by the Tory at the last election
St Ives also includes the ultra-Remainy (albeit small) Scilly Isles. As I said, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives reasonably comfortably this time around. But it would also be the seat I'd expect to drop first when the tide goes in the other direction.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Mark
Do you think there will be no Brexit effect in the GE. Looks like the area voted 60% leave and a 6000 ukip vote to squeeze - are there any local factors that I'm missing?
The UKIP vote was squeezed to 0.2% last week , it did not go Conservative .
That is interesting but I still think that the way TM has framd the election is to push these voters into supporting the conservatives in the election. Whilst locals can be an indication, I am wary about firm expectations from those results. If you look at Wales GE polling before and after locals both strongly point to conservative support that didn't show in the locals, but then we know turnout is much lower in locals, so perhaps the die hards are not turning but the GE voters will.
I'm a Southern season ticket holder. I think nationalisation is a terrible idea.
And because I'm a Southern season ticket holder I also think abolishing the Trades Union Act is a terrible idea.
But TFL is effectively a national owned train company, that seems to do quite well, actually I would love that sort of set up to organise transport around the UK rather than the current mix of profit takers.....
Nice post from someone on the sharp end.
The old privatisation v nationalisation argument is a false binary. The key point is: how do you get management to act in the public interest (getting the trains to run reliably, how to invest to improve the service, how to strengthen the role of public transport over time). TFL is a great example of an organisation that appears to be doing very well, because its structure is very effective at acting in the public interest.
Neither public or private gets you the public interest by default. Unless competition acts to keep prices down (and in Southern's case, competition is entirely missing) then you need some sort of government intervention. Simples.
That is true. A private monopoly tends to exhibit all the same unsavoury features as a public one, except that in a private monopoly, prices will generally be higher as there's little to no democratic pressure to keep them down, top pay will be higher and the service will be slightly better (though not by much and only because the public variant will have less cash in general).
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
North Cornwall local elections LDems 51% Con 34.5% UKIP 0.2% yes zero . 2 % Squeezing the UKIP vote to nothing did not help the Conservatives .
Are we to presume that bin collection elections and a General Election are the same thing now?
Yes. Even though we were also told the LDs would make gains all across Cornwall, and they went backwards. But this time it is correct.
The Lib Dems did make gains in Cornwall and did not go backwards .
Indeed at least Londoners have one arse to kick under a transparent public brand. It's not clear to me why nationalisation is fine in London, and outside London to foreign governments, but not outside London to our own government. It is similarly odd that bus regulation is fine and dandy in London but not outside London. Funny old world.
The tube is hardly a great advert for the wonders of nationalisation. Always on strike and expensive.
Under Corbyn, about 95% would have their lives made worse.
All the talk about the nice things spending will buy is irrelevant. The kind of Britain Labour wants is one where private business will be much diminished, we are likely to see a brain drain, and tax receipts will be miserable whilst spending soars. The idea that 95% will be no worse off, even if only in tax terms, is laughable.
Sounds like Brexit to me. Except for the spending.
I Presume jezza is waiting until his second term before he bans all robots in factories.
Tory alternative?
Elect a robot for PM?
Do you seriously think banning Driverless trains is a good policy? Having somebody "drive" the DLR just because the law demands when there is no need. The reality is the whole tube should be Driverless like a like of modern metro systems around the world.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
'single digits'? If the majority is under 10 I'm sure there'll be a some recounts ;-)
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
North Cornwall local elections LDems 51% Con 34.5% UKIP 0.2% yes zero . 2 % Squeezing the UKIP vote to nothing did not help the Conservatives .
Local elections are not general elections, and by-elections are not scheduled elections. That's not to say that the Lib Dems won't win but similar things were said about Eastleigh (?) before the last GE and Con still gained it.
Tom Watson arrives at Labour's Clause V meeting and tells us "Its not a great day for the Labour Party"
Trouble at tha mill.
What a grumpy gus. Labour's doing fine, Tom, I heard the leader say so. Closing the gap on the Tories, people want a change and all that.
""Jeremy Corbyn did not attend a Labour poster launch this morning because he is dealing with "internal matters", elections co-ordinator Ian Lavery told reporters at the event."
"internal matters" sounds really ominous to me. Kangaroo court for whoever leaked the manifesto?
Corbyn does not do Kangaroo Courts.
He does do Manifestos that mean.
For 95% of UK citizens, their life is improved
For the 5% their life is unaltered, but should feel "enriched" to help UK progress
Under Corbyn, about 95% would have their lives made worse.
How?
Try massive increases in inflation, interest rates, hugely diminished business investment and employment growth. Britain would go from being an attractive place to invest to being the sick man of Europe again.
If you're going to produce a manifesto that promises to spend hundred of billions of pounds we do not have, someone will have to pay for it, and that is, in the end, the vast majority of the public.
Even by the far left's standards, this manifesto is utterly bonkers. The Tories should call it - 'A Blueprint for Chaos'
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
I'd agree with this. St Ives is very much middle class artsy, however there are still 5000 ukip votes for the Tories to squeeze and there are 25000 leave voters to target well above the 18000 received by the Tory at the last election
St Ives also includes the ultra-Remainy (albeit small) Scilly Isles. As I said, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives reasonably comfortably this time around. But it would also be the seat I'd expect to drop first when the tide goes in the other direction.
North Cornwall has always been the seat in Cornwall to drop first when the Conservative tide goes out . St Ives is the 2nd .
Voter registration soars to 90% among students with 55% backing Labour
Should hold Sheffield Central, Bristol West and Cardiff Central. Combined with the blukip tide in provincial England the outlook for the Lib Dems looks somewhat err "challenging"
Tom Watson arrives at Labour's Clause V meeting and tells us "Its not a great day for the Labour Party"
Trouble at tha mill.
What a grumpy gus. Labour's doing fine, Tom, I heard the leader say so. Closing the gap on the Tories, people want a change and all that.
""Jeremy Corbyn did not attend a Labour poster launch this morning because he is dealing with "internal matters", elections co-ordinator Ian Lavery told reporters at the event."
"internal matters" sounds really ominous to me. Kangaroo court for whoever leaked the manifesto?
Corbyn does not do Kangaroo Courts.
He does do Manifestos that mean.
For 95% of UK citizens, their life is improved
For the 5% their life is unaltered, but should feel "enriched" to help UK progress
I do not know whether this is blind-eye wishful thinking, trolling or just a really bad poem.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
North Cornwall local elections LDems 51% Con 34.5% UKIP 0.2% yes zero . 2 % Squeezing the UKIP vote to nothing did not help the Conservatives .
Are we to presume that bin collection elections and a General Election are the same thing now?
Yes. Even though we were also told the LDs would make gains all across Cornwall, and they went backwards. But this time it is correct.
The Lib Dems did make gains in Cornwall and did not go backwards .
Well, how partial is that information Mark?
Cornwall
2013: LD 36 councillors 2017 LD 37 councillors plus one
2013: Tories 31 councillors 2017: Tories 46 councillors plus fifteen
Hmm. Not a bad LD drop last time, but no John Thurso, not a huge majority but not a huge amount of SLAB or SCON to squeeze, rose in share but did not gain a Holyrood seat covering part of the area.
Seems like with a good LD candidate and a less good SNP candidate they'd be in with a shout at least, although people continue to elect not liked MPs all the time.
Also, from this part of the story
One member, who wished to remain anonymous but provided BuzzFeed News with evidence of her membership of the Sutherland branch,
Identifying the source's gender seems an unnecessary way to make it easier to figure out who taddled.
Part of the dynamic in Scotland is that Eurosceptic independence supporters are abandoning the SNP for the Tories. If the local Lib Dems are successful in persuading Unionist voters to stick with them in the Highlands rather than defect to the Conservatives then they'll take Caithness, while Ross, Skye & Lochaber and Argyll & Bute will be very marginal. It all depends on how well the LD squeeze message goes down.
I Presume jezza is waiting until his second term before he bans all robots in factories.
Tory alternative?
Elect a robot for PM?
Do you seriously think banning Driverless trains is a good policy? Having somebody "drive" the DLR just because the law demands when there is no need. The reality is the whole tube should be Driverless like a like of modern metro systems around the world.
For all the stick Tories and Kippers get about looking back to the past wearing rose-tinted spectacles nothing they have proposed is as conservative and backwards looking as this proposed Labour manifesto.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
North Cornwall local elections LDems 51% Con 34.5% UKIP 0.2% yes zero . 2 % Squeezing the UKIP vote to nothing did not help the Conservatives .
Are we to presume that bin collection elections and a General Election are the same thing now?
Yes. Even though we were also told the LDs would make gains all across Cornwall, and they went backwards. But this time it is correct.
The Lib Dems did make gains in Cornwall and did not go backwards .
I'll grant I mis-remembered that they went forward from the seats won in 2013, albeit they reduced in the number they held prior to the election in 2017 occurring because they'd gained many at by-elections. Mea culpa. They're down on where they were 2 months ago, but technically did not go backwards from 2013.
But your predictions are always that they will make big gains, not merely gains, remember all that stuff about the Tories being in disarray, and the LDs perhaps getting close to a majority in Cornwall? Ok, I judged them as going 'backwards' because I took from their total pre-election rather than the 2013 base as I should have...but remember your predictions?
Cornwall 2013 result Con 31 Lab 8 LD 36 UKIP 6 Green 1 Meb K 4 Ind 37 My forecast Con 24 Lab 3 LD 62 UKIP 0 Green 1 Meb K 4 Ind 29
You were a very very very very very long way out (BBC says CON 46, LD 37, IND 30, LAB 5, MK 4). No biggie, we've all been there, but you have no doubts therefore about your predictions now, not a one?
Acting like it is silly to predict the LDs will do poorly when your own ramping of them was wildly out is a little unreasonable.
FWIW, after early canvassing in his far-from-best areas, Kevin Foster is very bullish about holding Torbay.
I'd be staggered if the LDs ran the Conservatives close in any of the seats in the West country (except perhaps St Ives, and even there I'd expect a 7-8% lead).
The local elections show that the Lib Dems are a serious threat to the Conservatives in North Cornwall not St Ives .
Dan Rogerson was 14 points behind his Conservative opponent in 2015, and there's a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
North Cornwall local elections LDems 51% Con 34.5% UKIP 0.2% yes zero . 2 % Squeezing the UKIP vote to nothing did not help the Conservatives .
Are we to presume that bin collection elections and a General Election are the same thing now?
Yes. Even though we were also told the LDs would make gains all across Cornwall, and they went backwards. But this time it is correct.
The Lib Dems did make gains in Cornwall and did not go backwards .
Well, how partial is that information Mark?
Cornwall
2013: LD 36 councillors 2017 LD 37 councillors plus one
2013: Tories 31 councillors 2017: Tories 46 councillors plus fifteen
LibDems - Winning Here!!!*
(*Just nowhere near as well as the Tories though)
(The LDs will actually be +2, as one of the Bodmin seats didn't vote due to the death of the LD candidate.)
Comments
"Mr Corbyn is doing the preparation for a very important meeting this afternoon.
"He was meant to be here but this thing's happened and Mr Corbyn is dealing with internal matters within the party and he's dealing with preparation work for what is a fantastic manifesto."
BBC live
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-39876374
Is the "internal matters" the bit where they leave him in the messroom with a decanter of brandy and a loaded revolver?
https://twitter.com/MrMalky/status/862583206968786944
#Kippersinkilts
Or the US where 25% of electricity comes from public companies like Los Angeles Water and Power or shock horror, nationalised ones, i.e the Tennesee Valley Authority and Bonneville Power Administration (NW USA).
Thatcher deliberately made it very complex to reverse privatisation, so I think they'd have done better to promise a royal commission or other detailed and expert review of the options before deciding on a way forward.
They could though promise in their first term a reversal of the 2002 retail deregulation which, ahem, Labour introduced. Returning to the regulation we have for water would block some but not all of the rip-offs.
There was recently a couple of published polls with transition proportions from 2015 which distinguished Leavers from Remainers, namely: a poll reported in the Guardian,
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak
... and a YouGov poll,
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/i70tdeyvag/InternalResults_170420_Demographics_all_W.pdf
What these polls show is that that for Labour Remainers 5% in both polls would switch to Con, while for Leavers 17% (Guardian) or 24% (YouGov) would do so.
Which taken together implies a (gross) switch of 11% (Guardian) or 14% (YouGov). Take off 1-2% moving the other way (yes, they do exist), and out of Lab's 30% from GE2015, that amounts to the 3% of voters I quoted in my original post.
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/862320947029831681
1. He got over 50% at the last election in the seat, and the LDs vote share has actually risen (albeit marginally) since the last GE.
2. Party leaders usually get a boost.
3. The LDs increased their vote share in the wards that make up the constituency last Thursday.
4. The constituency voted Remain.
5. UKIP only got 6% last time around, so there's not a lot for the Conservatives to pick up there.
My bet is that Farron will get 45-50% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 35-40%.
Fair enough. I read your comment as saying that only 3% gross of Labour voters would switch, not 3% net of all voters.
And because I'm a Southern season ticket holder I also think abolishing the Trades Union Act is a terrible idea.
But TFL is effectively a national owned train company, that seems to do quite well, actually I would love that sort of set up to organise transport around the UK rather than the current mix of profit takers.....
Squads of arse-kickers are to be deployed to ensure the under-25s bother to vote in the general election...
“No, there isn’t an app for it. No, you can’t tap your vote on a screen while keeping half an eye on The Jeremy Kyle show.
“You have to do walk 800 yards to a school and operate a small pencil, the way your bigoted grandparents do.”
Meanwhile, any young person who uses the phrase, ‘whoever you vote for, the government always gets in’, will get a double arse-kicking.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/young-people-to-have-arses-kicked-all-the-way-to-polling-stations-20170511127453
Tom Watson arrives at Labour's Clause V meeting and tells us "Its not a great day for the Labour Party"
Trouble at tha mill.
No-one in the Lib Dems would do that. But for those of you who think something being ethically wrong is not enough to stop a political party doing it, you might also like to consider that the Lib Dems do not have £250K to give the Greens or anyone else. We really don't.
"internal matters" sounds really ominous to me. Kangaroo court for whoever leaked the manifesto?
Four days ago, one of the finest minds in politics wrote a perceptive article on that very subject.
I'm less and less sure that, regardless of what happens in the GE he's going to be ditched.
He does do Manifestos that mean.
For 95% of UK citizens, their life is improved
For the 5% their life is unaltered, but should feel "enriched" to help UK progress
Indeed at least Londoners have one arse to kick under a transparent public brand. It's not clear to me why nationalisation is fine in London, and outside London to foreign governments, but not outside London to our own government. It is similarly odd that bus regulation is fine and dandy in London but not outside London. Funny old world.
Yes, fair points and I think you and I have had this discussion before (not that that ever stopped PBers!). I guess I'm just glad Labour has put nationalisation as an option back up for debate. The existing settlement - franchising or nothing (outside London) - is patently absurd.
SNP Members Have Made An Official Complaint About Their Local SNP MP
Local members told BuzzFeed News that Paul Monaghan is "not a liked man" and think he may have broken parliamentary rules.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-members-have-made-an-official-complaint-about-their?utm_term=.oe8XRnwZD9#.ngLAEjB92q
I'd save your money.
St Ives, on the other hand, has only a small majority, and there's a decent sized Labour vote for the LDs to (potentially) squeeze. Don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives will hold St Ives. But I think the LDs will keep their lead to single digits.
Nice post from someone on the sharp end.
The old privatisation v nationalisation argument is a false binary. The key point is: how do you get management to act in the public interest (getting the trains to run reliably, how to invest to improve the service, how to strengthen the role of public transport over time). TFL is a great example of an organisation that appears to be doing very well, because its structure is very effective at acting in the public interest.
Neither public or private gets you the public interest by default. Unless competition acts to keep prices down (and in Southern's case, competition is entirely missing) then you need some sort of government intervention. Simples.
Luddites protecting the unions not the people. If they are willing to do it for trains, things like uber have to be worried. Although given the crazy labour reforms I doubt uber would be able to operate in the Venezuelan utopia jezza wants.
Do you think there will be no Brexit effect in the GE. Looks like the area voted 60% leave and a 6000 ukip vote to squeeze - are there any local factors that I'm missing?
I don't know if there will be enough unionist tactical voting to hand it to the LDs. But it's possible. I'd probably want 2-1 rather than the evens currently on offer.
Seems like with a good LD candidate and a less good SNP candidate they'd be in with a shout at least, although people continue to elect not liked MPs all the time.
Also, from this part of the story
One member, who wished to remain anonymous but provided BuzzFeed News with evidence of her membership of the Sutherland branch,
Identifying the source's gender seems an unnecessary way to make it easier to figure out who taddled.
Tories protecting the Southern Rail bosses bonuses and allowing a system that Southern profits more when no trains run is your Torycrazynomic alternative.
Get Lynton on the phone: "Drop 'coalition of chaos' Mr Crosby, we've got the doozy!"
I can see a Youtube video set to a Harry Belafonte track even as I type...
I thought it was only the SCons who did member inflation?
First: it is not a franchise, it is structured as a concession similar to London Overground or TFL Rail. All ticket income goes direct to DfT. Does this suggest that its problems arise due to poor DfT management compared with TfL?
Second: Southern Rail is only one part of a wider concession: Govia Thameslink Rail which covers the Thameslink services and the Great Northern services out of Kings Cross as well as the Gatwick Express. These services have suffered less than Southern, perhaps because the unions have not been striking in these services?
Thirdly: The London Overground concession is held by Arriva (i.e. A sub of Deutsche Bahn) and TfL Rail concession is held by MTR (owned by Hong Kong state railway). Both are not nationalised, it is a branding issue.
Fourthly: GTR is a very big concession, around 20% of all rain journeys in GB are made on GTR trains. It is probably too big. In comparison the whole Netherlands railway carries only about one third more passengers than GTR alone. This suggests that on refranchising it would be split up.
Elect a robot for PM?
The old privatisation v nationalisation argument is a false binary. The key point is: how do you get management to act in the public interest (getting the trains to run reliably, how to invest to improve the service, how to strengthen the role of public transport over time). TFL is a great example of an organisation that appears to be doing very well, because its structure is very effective at acting in the public interest.
Neither public or private gets you the public interest by default. Unless competition acts to keep prices down (and in Southern's case, competition is entirely missing) then you need some sort of government intervention. Simples.
That is true. A private monopoly tends to exhibit all the same unsavoury features as a public one, except that in a private monopoly, prices will generally be higher as there's little to no democratic pressure to keep them down, top pay will be higher and the service will be slightly better (though not by much and only because the public variant will have less cash in general).
If the majority is under 10 I'm sure there'll be a some recounts ;-)
If you're going to produce a manifesto that promises to spend hundred of billions of pounds we do not have, someone will have to pay for it, and that is, in the end, the vast majority of the public.
Even by the far left's standards, this manifesto is utterly bonkers. The Tories should call it - 'A Blueprint for Chaos'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/29/mps-continue-hire-relatives-as-staff
Asked about who might have leaked it he wouldn't specify but did say “a few dozen people in the party had copies this week”.
He wouldn't comment on the motivation behind it as "that might give away where I got it from”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-39876374
Cornwall
2013: LD 36 councillors
2017 LD 37 councillors plus one
2013: Tories 31 councillors
2017: Tories 46 councillors plus fifteen
LibDems - Winning Here!!!*
(*Just nowhere near as well as the Tories though)
But your predictions are always that they will make big gains, not merely gains, remember all that stuff about the Tories being in disarray, and the LDs perhaps getting close to a majority in Cornwall? Ok, I judged them as going 'backwards' because I took from their total pre-election rather than the 2013 base as I should have...but remember your predictions?
Cornwall 2013 result
Con 31 Lab 8 LD 36 UKIP 6 Green 1 Meb K 4 Ind 37
My forecast
Con 24 Lab 3 LD 62 UKIP 0 Green 1 Meb K 4 Ind 29
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1497893#Comment_1497893
You were a very very very very very long way out (BBC says CON 46, LD 37, IND 30, LAB 5, MK 4). No biggie, we've all been there, but you have no doubts therefore about your predictions now, not a one?
Acting like it is silly to predict the LDs will do poorly when your own ramping of them was wildly out is a little unreasonable.