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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour holding up better in London where there are fewer UKIP

SystemSystem Posts: 11,685
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour holding up better in London where there are fewer UKIP voters for CON to squeeze

YouGov: LAB vote holding up in London poll. LDs up 6. (Changes on GE2015)LAB 42% -2CON 36% +2LD 14% +6UKIP 6%-2GRN 3% -2

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    edited May 2017
    Yes but I suspect UKIP aren't going to stand in a lot, if not most, London constituencies.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Second :)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    We know of several seats where UKIP aren't standing, but I guess by tomorrow we'll know how many deposits they've managed to raise. I think it could be in the double figures, in which case around 3/4 of their current poll support could still go elsewhere when the voters realise there isn't a ukip candidate to vote for.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    RobD said:

    Second :)

    Which means there is only one winner today.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    Sandpit said:

    We know of several seats where UKIP aren't standing, but I guess by tomorrow we'll know how many deposits they've managed to raise. I think it could be in the double figures, in which case around 3/4 of their current poll support could still go elsewhere when the voters realise there isn't a ukip candidate to vote for.

    That's one of the nightmare scenarios for our friends in the polling industry.

    On June 8th, Kipper goes to cast their vote, only to find no UKIP candidate on the ballot paper.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited May 2017
    Vauxhall is the electoral equivalent of Mount Everest Olympus Mons for the Lib Dems to climb, bet against a 30 pt swing happening here in my opinion at around 1-2.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    Crap.

    Just seen the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw.
  • Options
    CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    Who cares about London?
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    What odds on LD win in Vauxhall? (i'm on a work computer)

    Are those who put on a 10-1 bet with RCS able to lay off nicely yet?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Anorak said:

    What odds on LD win in Vauxhall? (i'm on a work computer)

    Are those who put on a 10-1 bet with RCS able to lay off nicely yet?

    Yes. Do so, I've nakedly backed Hoey here and am very happy about it.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Stab me....
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2017
    A difference between GE2015 and now, is the lack of big UKiP donors coming forward, basically we have little idea how many candidates they’ll have standing and how much they have to spend. - Both on the low side is my guess.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:

    Anorak said:

    What odds on LD win in Vauxhall? (i'm on a work computer)

    Are those who put on a 10-1 bet with RCS able to lay off nicely yet?

    Yes. Do so, I've nakedly backed Hoey here and am very happy about it.
    Oh I was too slow to jump on that bandwagon, but I've been following developments with amusement.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    Pulpstar said:

    Vauxhall is the electoral equivalent of Mount Everest Olympus Mons for the Lib Dems to climb, bet against a 30 pt swing happening here in my opinion at around 1-2.

    I know I'm talking up my own book here, but I wonder how much Kate Hoey's support for fox hunting is going to hurt in Vauxhall.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited May 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Vauxhall is the electoral equivalent of Mount Everest Olympus Mons for the Lib Dems to climb, bet against a 30 pt swing happening here in my opinion at around 1-2.

    I know I'm talking up my own book here, but I wonder how much Kate Hoey's support for fox hunting is going to hurt in Vauxhall.
    Zero.

    UKIP not standing will net gain her (And the Tories) some votes too.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Interestingly Ruth is softening her stance:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39869709
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/862265268713795585
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Vauxhall is the electoral equivalent of Mount Everest Olympus Mons for the Lib Dems to climb, bet against a 30 pt swing happening here in my opinion at around 1-2.

    I know I'm talking up my own book here, but I wonder how much Kate Hoey's support for fox hunting is going to hurt in Vauxhall.
    Zero.

    UKIP not standing will net gain her (And the Tories) some votes too.
    Well she's worried

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/vauxhall-lib-dem-candidate-compares-kate-hoey-airbrush-stunt-to-stalinism-a3535311.html
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    "The big question for the blues is whether their gains can offset possible losses to the LDs"

    Of all the big questions in this election, this is not anywhere near one of them.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Wouldn't that make more sense as 'Tories cleared in election probe'?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crap.

    Just seen the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw.

    Au contraire .... :smiley:
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Vauxhall is a fascinating seat, Kate Hoey has a huge majority but the LDs are pushing hard and the Tories have a young and energetic local candidate in Dorothy Theis who doesn't look like she's going to soft pedal. Not forgetting of course our own @Lennon, of the Pirate Party, ooh arrgghhh!

    Kate must have a huge personal vote from 28 years as MP, she got 53% last time so I just can't see that much of a majority being overturned. If the LDs do make a big push and campaign negatively on Hoey and the EU, can she get some tactical Con Leave votes and squeeze out the small UKIP vote from 2015?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    Is this not what we assumed? That Islington North writ large was the last bastion of a once great party? The corollary is of course out in the real world the swings are even bigger than the national polling indicates.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crap.

    Just seen the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw.

    Au contraire .... :smiley:
    Yeah, rigged.

    England get France and Argentina.

    Scotland get Ireland and Japan.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Eagles, does look a bit difficult for both groups. Still, Japan are probably miffed too.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    RobD said:

    Wouldn't that make more sense as 'Tories cleared in election probe'?

    Osborne is hoping readers will miss the word "cleared".
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    Wouldn't that make more sense as 'Tories cleared in election probe'?

    Are you suggesting a mite of mischief making from Ozzie? .... :smile:
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    Come on Mike you can't have a byline of "LDs hoping for gains in the capital"

    In the proud tradition of awful punnery it should surely be "LDs hoping for capital gains"
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Sandpit said:

    Vauxhall is a fascinating seat, Kate Hoey has a huge majority but the LDs are pushing hard and the Tories have a young and energetic local candidate in Dorothy Theis who doesn't look like she's going to soft pedal. Not forgetting of course our own @Lennon, of the Pirate Party, ooh arrgghhh!

    Kate must have a huge personal vote from 28 years as MP, she got 53% last time so I just can't see that much of a majority being overturned. If the LDs do make a big push and campaign negatively on Hoey and the EU, can she get some tactical Con Leave votes and squeeze out the small UKIP vote from 2015?

    I presume her joining Nigel on his river cruise last year won't hurt her chances with the kippers.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Vauxhall is the electoral equivalent of Mount Everest Olympus Mons for the Lib Dems to climb, bet against a 30 pt swing happening here in my opinion at around 1-2.

    I know I'm talking up my own book here, but I wonder how much Kate Hoey's support for fox hunting is going to hurt in Vauxhall.
    Zero.

    UKIP not standing will net gain her (And the Tories) some votes too.
    Well she's worried

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/vauxhall-lib-dem-candidate-compares-kate-hoey-airbrush-stunt-to-stalinism-a3535311.html
    The average voter simply doesn't pay that much attention.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crap.

    Just seen the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw.

    Au contraire .... :smiley:
    Yeah, rigged.

    England get France and Argentina.

    Scotland get Ireland and Japan.
    Easy group for France and Argentina there .... :naughty:
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Stab me....

    Just have a walk around parts of London, it'll happen soon enough at the moment.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crap.

    Just seen the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw.

    That's a proper Group of Death :o
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    The problem with London polls is always about the geographical distribution. the difference between inner and outer can be crucial and paint a very different picture to the overall score.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited May 2017
    Oh and back to expenses looks like the CPS are pro-hunt having shot the last LD fox? :)

    Edit: Mark not leading the Pack?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,625
    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crap.

    Just seen the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw.

    Au contraire .... :smiley:
    Yeah, rigged.

    England get France and Argentina.

    Scotland get Ireland and Japan.
    If we're going to win it, we have to beat them anyhow. If the extent of our ambition is getting through the group stage, then why are we bothering ?

    Rigged would be Australia and New Zealand.
    :-)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    edited May 2017
    Haha. One of my Corbynite friends is having a proper meltdown

    Wanted to know if CPS stood for Conservative Protection Squad and it full of public school Tories?

    She's gone ever so quiet after I told what job the previous DPP has these days and who his boss is.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited May 2017
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Sandpit said:

    Vauxhall is a fascinating seat, Kate Hoey has a huge majority but the LDs are pushing hard and the Tories have a young and energetic local candidate in Dorothy Theis who doesn't look like she's going to soft pedal. Not forgetting of course our own @Lennon, of the Pirate Party, ooh arrgghhh!

    Kate must have a huge personal vote from 28 years as MP, she got 53% last time so I just can't see that much of a majority being overturned. If the LDs do make a big push and campaign negatively on Hoey and the EU, can she get some tactical Con Leave votes and squeeze out the small UKIP vote from 2015?

    I presume her joining Nigel on his river cruise last year won't hurt her chances with the kippers.
    Yes, but UKIP lost their deposit here last time with only 3%
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vauxhall_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    In theory it's a really safe seat, but if the LDs do go hard on Hoey with the Brexit angle it could well turn into a three way marginal. But as is often said on here, such obvious personal decapitation strategies don't usually work.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Yup - and maybe in Scotland - what price Tom Watson in the W. Bromwich and Angus Robertson in Angus or even Angry Salmond in gordon ? :)
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Hope so. It wouldn't hurt for some of the pollsters to do some Midlands and Northern polling just to check.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Do we really believe that voters are more or less equating miliband and Corbyn, and that the vast majority of the polling change is just due to Kippers going blue?

    Surely not...? Corbyn is a joke, a liability, and IRA sympathiser, a borderline commie.

    Tories need to start pointing this out to the seemingly epically inattentive public!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    felix said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Yup - and maybe in Scotland - what price Tom Watson in the W. Bromwich and Angus Robertson in Angus or even Angry Salmond in gordon ? :)
    The Holy Trinity? ;)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    felix said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Yup - and maybe in Scotland - what price Tom Watson in the W. Bromwich and Angus Robertson in Angus or even Angry Salmond in gordon ? :)
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/862216458763476993
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    JonCisBack said:

    Do we really believe that voters are more or less equating miliband and Corbyn, and that the vast majority of the polling change is just due to Kippers going blue?

    Surely not...? Corbyn is a joke, a liability, and IRA sympathiser, a borderline commie.

    Tories need to start pointing this out to the seemingly epically inattentive public!

    Maybe in the final week of the campaign?
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2017
    tlg86 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Hope so. It wouldn't hurt for some of the pollsters to do some Midlands and Northern polling just to check.
    The size of the LAB>CON swing will be determined by the number of kipper votes to squeeze. This is really worrying for LAB in many of its heartlands
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    felix said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Yup - and maybe in Scotland - what price Tom Watson in the W. Bromwich and Angus Robertson in Angus or even Angry Salmond in gordon ? :)
    Moray.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Bigger but not stratospheric . I am not sure how many people would be covered by this poll but if we guess 6m and the swing here is 2% and the average swing over 64m is 5.5% then, if my arithmetic is right, the swing elsewhere is 5.86%.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Haha. One of my Corbynite friends is having a proper meltdown

    Wanted to know if CPS stood for Conservative Protection Squad and it full of public school Tories?

    She's gone ever so quiet after I told what job the previous DPP has these days and who his boss is.

    Didn't she know that??
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    Carolus_Rex said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Haha. One of my Corbynite friends is having a proper meltdown

    Wanted to know if CPS stood for Conservative Protection Squad and it full of public school Tories?

    She's gone ever so quiet after I told what job the previous DPP has these days and who his boss is.

    Didn't she know that??
    She didn't, she's 22
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, does look a bit difficult for both groups. Still, Japan are probably miffed too.

    Afternoon, Mr.D.
    One point to consider about the Spanish GP is that the current odds suggest Mercedes are moderately strong favourites.
    That might be confirmed in practice - in which case I don't think the odds will move a lot pre-race. If (as I suspect) Ferrari are going to have a slight edge in Spain, then well worth having a dabble on Vettel or Raikkonen ahead of FP1.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Yup - and maybe in Scotland - what price Tom Watson in the W. Bromwich and Angus Robertson in Angus or even Angry Salmond in gordon ? :)
    Moray.
    I've bet on the Conservatives in this seat and I'm impatient to collect winnings. But I'll have to wait until 8 June. You can't hurry a Moray mint.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Haha. One of my Corbynite friends is having a proper meltdown

    Wanted to know if CPS stood for Conservative Protection Squad and it full of public school Tories?

    She's gone ever so quiet after I told what job the previous DPP has these days and who his boss is.

    Didn't she know that??
    She didn't, she's 22
    Are you emulating SeanT?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    felix said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Yup - and maybe in Scotland - what price Tom Watson in the W. Bromwich and Angus Robertson in Angus or even Angry Salmond in gordon ? :)
    It'd certainly be a smart punter who bet against Robertson winning in Angus.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Haha. One of my Corbynite friends is having a proper meltdown

    Wanted to know if CPS stood for Conservative Protection Squad and it full of public school Tories?

    She's gone ever so quiet after I told what job the previous DPP has these days and who his boss is.

    Didn't she know that??
    She didn't, she's 22
    Are you emulating SeanT?
    What, educating the next generation ?
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Gamechanger !

    https://twitter.com/AngusRobertson/status/862266340161335296
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Comparing a poll with the last GE is one way of looking at the numbers, and a legitimate one if looking at gains and losses.

    However, in terms of who's moving forwards and back on a shorter timescale, comparing with the most recent equivalent poll is more usual. On that basis:

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/862251851017850880
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    DavidL said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Bigger but not stratospheric . I am not sure how many people would be covered by this poll but if we guess 6m and the swing here is 2% and the average swing over 64m is 5.5% then, if my arithmetic is right, the swing elsewhere is 5.86%.
    I vaguely remember you predicting Scottish Labour holding up two years back...
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited May 2017
    Nigelb said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, does look a bit difficult for both groups. Still, Japan are probably miffed too.

    Afternoon, Mr.D.
    One point to consider about the Spanish GP is that the current odds suggest Mercedes are moderately strong favourites.
    That might be confirmed in practice - in which case I don't think the odds will move a lot pre-race. If (as I suspect) Ferrari are going to have a slight edge in Spain, then well worth having a dabble on Vettel or Raikkonen ahead of FP1.
    It's also worth remembering that a very positive-sounding Red Bull are bringing what amounts to a brand new car with them to Spain. They're certainly talking the talk of being right up there with the silver and red cars.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    Don't forget the ultra-marginal Ilford North!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/862265729718128641

    and this is what Trump has just retweeted


    https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/862267647131439104
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @WikiGuido: WOW! Caroline Lucas tells @afneil "I can't remember the name" of the person who offered the Greens a £250k bung to stand aside in Richmond
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    FPT
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"

    Almost a funny from Farron ....
    [Farron] should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?
    Certainly - it should be a battle-TRAIN!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, does look a bit difficult for both groups. Still, Japan are probably miffed too.

    Afternoon, Mr.D.
    One point to consider about the Spanish GP is that the current odds suggest Mercedes are moderately strong favourites.
    That might be confirmed in practice - in which case I don't think the odds will move a lot pre-race. If (as I suspect) Ferrari are going to have a slight edge in Spain, then well worth having a dabble on Vettel or Raikkonen ahead of FP1.
    It's also worth remembering that a very positive-sounding Red Bull are bringing what amounts to a brand new car with them to Spain. They're certainly talking the talk of being right up there with the silver and red cars.
    Good luck to them. I'll believe it when I see it.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Yeah. I did a piece on it last month.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/01/the-multiplier-effect-regional-social-and-brexit-swing-make-a-bad-story-worse-for-lab/
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @CillizzaCNN: Donald Trump has sent 3 tweets defending his decision to fire Comey and retweeted the Drudge Report twice.

    It is 7:30 am.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FPT

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"

    Almost a funny from Farron ....
    [Farron] should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?
    Certainly - it should be a battle-TRAIN!
    Here's a little-diddy battle-TRAIN!
    https://inlanding.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/7b194d2c.jpg
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, does look a bit difficult for both groups. Still, Japan are probably miffed too.

    Afternoon, Mr.D.
    One point to consider about the Spanish GP is that the current odds suggest Mercedes are moderately strong favourites.
    That might be confirmed in practice - in which case I don't think the odds will move a lot pre-race. If (as I suspect) Ferrari are going to have a slight edge in Spain, then well worth having a dabble on Vettel or Raikkonen ahead of FP1.
    It's also worth remembering that a very positive-sounding Red Bull are bringing what amounts to a brand new car with them to Spain. They're certainly talking the talk of being right up there with the silver and red cars.
    Good luck to them. I'll believe it when I see it.
    Indeed. After being two seconds off the pace last time out in Russia, there's a lot of catching up to do!
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Yup - and maybe in Scotland - what price Tom Watson in the W. Bromwich and Angus Robertson in Angus or even Angry Salmond in gordon ? :)
    Moray.
    I've bet on the Conservatives in this seat and I'm impatient to collect winnings. But I'll have to wait until 8 June. You can't hurry a Moray mint.
    With that bet you might just be a sucker!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    Based on this poll in Londdon the Tories would gain Ealing Central and Acton, Brentford and Isleworth, Ilford North, Hampstead and Kilburn and Enfield North from Labour but lose Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton and Sutton and Cheam to the LDs. So the Tories would still make a net gain of 2 seats in London but they will pick up many more elsewhere. You can also probably swap Richmond Park for Sutton in terms of the 3rd LD gain
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FPT

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"

    Almost a funny from Farron ....
    [Farron] should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?
    Certainly - it should be a battle-TRAIN!
    Here's a little-diddy battle-TRAIN!
    https://inlanding.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/7b194d2c.jpg
    Romney, Hythe and Dymchurch? ;)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/862265268713795585

    First good news for Tories story from Osborne's standard, totally unconnected to the fact it relates to Cameron and Osborne's 2015 election campaign of course
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    First good news for Tories from Osborne's standard, totally unconnected to the fact it relates to Cameron and Osborne's 2015 election campaign of course

    Just proved how impartial George will be as editor... :wink:
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Yup - and maybe in Scotland - what price Tom Watson in the W. Bromwich and Angus Robertson in Angus or even Angry Salmond in gordon ? :)
    Moray.
    I've bet on the Conservatives in this seat and I'm impatient to collect winnings. But I'll have to wait until 8 June. You can't hurry a Moray mint.
    Me too
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Haha. One of my Corbynite friends is having a proper meltdown

    Wanted to know if CPS stood for Conservative Protection Squad and it full of public school Tories?

    She's gone ever so quiet after I told what job the previous DPP has these days and who his boss is.

    Didn't she know that??
    She didn't, she's 22
    Are you emulating SeanT?
    Yes. One of the perks of working, having a flat, and going out in a city with the largest student population in the UK.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/andrewsparrow/status/862275595534819328
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    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    First good news for Tories from Osborne's standard, totally unconnected to the fact it relates to Cameron and Osborne's 2015 election campaign of course

    Just proved how impartial George will be as editor... :wink:
    Not his job to be impartial... his job is to raise profile, increase readership and sell advertising.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Haha. One of my Corbynite friends is having a proper meltdown

    Wanted to know if CPS stood for Conservative Protection Squad and it full of public school Tories?

    She's gone ever so quiet after I told what job the previous DPP has these days and who his boss is.

    While every copper knows, it really stands for "Couldn't Prosecute Satan".
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The bet for me after this poll is a 4-1 Lib Dem gain treble of Kingston,Bermondsey and Twickenham to include in a Round Robin which secures the magic of the up-and-down double.
    The regional polls were pretty good in GE2015.A regional poll in the South West was a particularly good betting guide to Tory gains and Lib Dem losses last time.Bath,Wells,Yeovil and St Ives need to remain a minimum.
    The also lose the incumbency effect in Southport and the Tory decapitation strategy has been backed by ukip in north Norfolk.7-4 on a Tory win is too big.
    Hard to see them beating 15 at this stage
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Based on this poll in Londdon the Tories would gain Ealing Central and Acton, Brentford and Isleworth, Ilford North, Hampstead and Kilburn and Enfield North from Labour but lose Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton and Sutton and Cheam to the LDs. So the Tories would still make a net gain of 2 seats in London but they will pick up many more elsewhere. You can also probably swap Richmond Park for Sutton in terms of the 3rd LD gain

    Brentford and Isleworth, Ilford North, Hampstead and Kilburn and Enfield North are goners , I think.

    Ealing Central and Acton, I am not so sure. Greens are standing down. I don't think Bermondsey will fall.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FPT

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"

    Almost a funny from Farron ....
    [Farron] should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?
    Certainly - it should be a battle-TRAIN!
    Here's a little-diddy battle-TRAIN!
    https://inlanding.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/7b194d2c.jpg
    Romney, Hythe and Dymchurch? ;)
    Yep. Quite an enjoyable ride, although a friend of mine looks down on it as not being a toy train, and not one of the sainted Colonel's lines.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._F._Stephens
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @CillizzaCNN: Donald Trump has sent 3 tweets defending his decision to fire Comey and retweeted the Drudge Report twice.

    It is 7:30 am.

    The net is closing !
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Presumably, as said by just about everybody, also the East coast and Southern Shire England. It may well be that the Labour urban seats remain solid, big swings in the Shires and very few marginals at all for 2022.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    david_herdson said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So if the swing is this small in London, it must be stratospheric in the North and Midlands...

    Yeah. I did a piece on it last month.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/01/the-multiplier-effect-regional-social-and-brexit-swing-make-a-bad-story-worse-for-lab/
    However, it also means loads of votes extra in Kent, Essex, Suffolf, Norfolk, Cambridgeshite, Lincolnshite.

    Remind us how many Labour seats are vulnerable in these parts ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Based on this poll in Londdon the Tories would gain Ealing Central and Acton, Brentford and Isleworth, Ilford North, Hampstead and Kilburn and Enfield North from Labour but lose Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton and Sutton and Cheam to the LDs. So the Tories would still make a net gain of 2 seats in London but they will pick up many more elsewhere. You can also probably swap Richmond Park for Sutton in terms of the 3rd LD gain

    Brentford and Isleworth, Ilford North, Hampstead and Kilburn and Enfield North are goners , I think.

    Ealing Central and Acton, I am not so sure. Greens are standing down. I don't think Bermondsey will fall.
    Bermondsey would stay Labour on this poll I think Ealing more likely to go Tory than heavily Remain Hampstead
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    First good news for Tories from Osborne's standard, totally unconnected to the fact it relates to Cameron and Osborne's 2015 election campaign of course

    Just proved how impartial George will be as editor... :wink:
    Yes the London Osborne Standard will of course be totally objective on May's government
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The CPS decision is not surprising. They don't have the balls!

    So, now it is open season regarding expenses. The Tories win twice over !
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Yes the London Osborne Standard will of course be totally objective on May's government

    And how BRILLIANT Brexit is
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Haha. One of my Corbynite friends is having a proper meltdown

    Wanted to know if CPS stood for Conservative Protection Squad and it full of public school Tories?

    She's gone ever so quiet after I told what job the previous DPP has these days and who his boss is.

    Didn't she know that??
    She didn't, she's 22
    Are you emulating SeanT?
    Yes. One of the perks of working, having a flat, and going out in a city with the largest student population in the UK.
    Have you written any thrillers yet? :)
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Not much going on today.

    I guess clearing the decks and leaving the field empty for a third party to slaughter the Tory party always had the chance of leaving a great big void.

    Never mind, more time to listen to Labour having numeric difficulty, class size blind spots and Caroline forgetting who offered her 250k.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    david_herdson said:

    Comparing a poll with the last GE is one way of looking at the numbers, and a legitimate one if looking at gains and losses.

    However, in terms of who's moving forwards and back on a shorter timescale, comparing with the most recent equivalent poll is more usual. On that basis:

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/862251851017850880

    Why is this one different from Mike's header ?
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    HYUFD said:

    Based on this poll in Londdon the Tories would gain Ealing Central and Acton, Brentford and Isleworth, Ilford North, Hampstead and Kilburn and Enfield North from Labour but lose Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton and Sutton and Cheam to the LDs. So the Tories would still make a net gain of 2 seats in London but they will pick up many more elsewhere. You can also probably swap Richmond Park for Sutton in terms of the 3rd LD gain

    But in the thread header, OGH asked "The big question for the blues is whether their gains can offset possible losses to the LDs." Surely he couldn't have made a miscalculation of this magnitude?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/862278943608647681
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/862278943608647681

    Lucas better get her memory back sharpish....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    What happens if Lucas has genuinely forgotten who offered the bung ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes the London Osborne Standard will of course be totally objective on May's government

    And how BRILLIANT Brexit is
    It is already the Remoaner in chief in the Capital
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    What happens if Lucas has genuinely forgotten who offered the bung ?

    It shouldn't take too long for the police to pull the phone records.

    Coalition of chaos indeed.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    surbiton said:

    The CPS decision is not surprising. They don't have the balls!

    So, now it is open season regarding expenses. The Tories win twice over !

    Or couldn't see how the cases had a chance of conviction.

    I won't be shocked if Thanet results in charges. It may still be difficult to get a successful prosecution.

    Don't block out the memory that all three main parties were fined after the 2015 election for spending irregularities. Labour and LibDems are implicated in the same practices.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    peter_from_putney said:

    HYUFD said:

    Based on this poll in Londdon the Tories would gain Ealing Central and Acton, Brentford and Isleworth, Ilford North, Hampstead and Kilburn and Enfield North from Labour but lose Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton and Sutton and Cheam to the LDs. So the Tories would still make a net gain of 2 seats in London but they will pick up many more elsewhere. You can also probably swap Richmond Park for Sutton in terms of the 3rd LD gain

    But in the thread header, OGH asked "The big question for the blues is whether their gains can offset possible losses to the LDs." Surely he couldn't have made a miscalculation of this magnitude?
    Surely not? However as a former LD activist he is bound to big up his own team where he can
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/862062674598920192
This discussion has been closed.