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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though we’ll know tomorrow morning what the CPS ar

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Whilst we have no idea as to what the CPS is about to say , if prosecutions of one or more MPs occur it will enable Labour to run with the message 'Now we know the real reason for the calling of this election - despite TMs repeated deials of such an intention'. There would be some mileage in that - and it would undermine May's image of honesty and being straight forward.

    If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?
    But she has done!
    The last deadline is June 7th, so that's just wrong.
    I am not sure what you are saying. She has called the election before the deadline!!
    "Called it for" as in she called it for June 8th.
    I am afraid you are not making yourself clear here . You replied to my initial comment with 'If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?'.I have pointed out that that is precisely what she has done!
    Yes, called it for May 4th, for example. I'm not talking about the day of the announcement.

    In any case, if this was about expenses, why would she set the date *after* the deadine?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    Which lucky bag carrier will get the Thanet South nod then ?

    I wonder if George Osborne fancies being the MP for Thanet South, would be easier editing The Standard from Thanet than Tatton.
    Is it not a bit down market for George?
    Well at Oxford he was told he was an oik because he attended St Paul's and not Eton.

    So after St Paul's and Oxford University, he's used to going to down market places.
    "he's used to going to down market places."

    You are now officially off my Christmas card list !
    I'm sure Thanet is lovely, I was merely going off Francis Urquhart's word that it was a bit down market.

    Plus I wasn't going to miss an opportunity to diss Oxford University.
    TBH Thanet is a dump-and most Thanitians would agree on that.

    But Sandwhich and the villages are very nice.
    I spent a glorious summer in Sandwich learning to play bridge from someone who was sent down from Oxford for taking £1,000* off the Master of his College the night before he was facing a rustication meeting for spending too much time playing cards...

    *This was in the mid 1920s...
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Tim_B said:

    Apparently Comey was addressing a group of FBI agents in LA when news began to flash on the TV screens behind him announcing his firing.

    Fox News now carrying live coverage of Comey's motorcade in LA. Weird.

    CNN too, until Kellyanne Conway just popped up. It was weirdly reminiscent of the slow-mo OJ Simpson chase back in the day.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Whilst we have no idea as to what the CPS is about to say , if prosecutions of one or more MPs occur it will enable Labour to run with the message 'Now we know the real reason for the calling of this election - despite TMs repeated deials of such an intention'. There would be some mileage in that - and it would undermine May's image of honesty and being straight forward.

    If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?
    But she has done!
    The last deadline is June 7th, so that's just wrong.
    I am not sure what you are saying. She has called the election before the deadline!!
    "Called it for" as in she called it for June 8th.
    I am afraid you are not making yourself clear here . You replied to my initial comment with 'If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?'.I have pointed out that that is precisely what she has done!
    Yes, called it for May 4th, for example. I'm not talking about the day of the announcement.

    In any case, if this was about expenses, why would she set the date *after* the deadine?
    That is beside the point. You really are totally incoherent here - which is unlike you. I suspect that alcohol has intervened. . Good Night.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    One of those who might be a stand-in FBI director is Andrew McCabe. His wife ran for state senate in VA as a democrat in 2015, and got an eye poppingly large $700k contribution from a PAC run by Clinton pal and VA governor Terry McAuliffe.

    The decision to fire Comey was based on a recommendation from deputy AG Rod Rosenstein, confirmed 96-4 on April 25th.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    edited May 2017
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Whilst we have no idea as to what the CPS is about to say , if prosecutions of one or more MPs occur it will enable Labour to run with the message 'Now we know the real reason for the calling of this election - despite TMs repeated deials of such an intention'. There would be some mileage in that - and it would undermine May's image of honesty and being straight forward.

    If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?
    But she has done!
    The last deadline is June 7th, so that's just wrong.
    I am not sure what you are saying. She has called the election before the deadline!!
    "Called it for" as in she called it for June 8th.
    I am afraid you are not making yourself clear here . You replied to my initial comment with 'If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?'.I have pointed out that that is precisely what she has done!
    Yes, called it for May 4th, for example. I'm not talking about the day of the announcement.

    In any case, if this was about expenses, why would she set the date *after* the deadine?
    That is beside the point. You really are totally incoherent here - which is unlike you. I suspect that alcohol has intervened. . Good Night.
    LOL, what? She called the election for June 8th. That is the context I was using "called it for" in.

    I'm not sure how my question is besides the point, and it now looks like you are deflecting by accusing me of being drunk.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Comey's motorcade has ended by his boarding a private plane, N818RK, destination as yet unknown
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Whilst we have no idea as to what the CPS is about to say , if prosecutions of one or more MPs occur it will enable Labour to run with the message 'Now we know the real reason for the calling of this election - despite TMs repeated deials of such an intention'. There would be some mileage in that - and it would undermine May's image of honesty and being straight forward.

    If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?
    But she has done!
    The last deadline is June 7th, so that's just wrong.
    I am not sure what you are saying. She has called the election before the deadline!!
    "Called it for" as in she called it for June 8th.
    I am afraid you are not making yourself clear here . You replied to my initial comment with 'If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?'.I have pointed out that that is precisely what she has done!
    Yes, called it for May 4th, for example. I'm not talking about the day of the announcement.

    In any case, if this was about expenses, why would she set the date *after* the deadine?
    That is beside the point. You really are totally incoherent here - which is unlike you. I suspect that alcohol has intervened. . Good Night.
    LOL, what? She called the election for June 8th. That is the context I was using "called it for" in.

    I'm not sure how my question is besides the point, and it now looks like you are deflecting by accusing me of being drunk.
    I have never accused you of being drunk. I just assumed it :wink:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Whilst we have no idea as to what the CPS is about to say , if prosecutions of one or more MPs occur it will enable Labour to run with the message 'Now we know the real reason for the calling of this election - despite TMs repeated deials of such an intention'. There would be some mileage in that - and it would undermine May's image of honesty and being straight forward.

    If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?
    But she has done!
    The last deadline is June 7th, so that's just wrong.
    I am not sure what you are saying. She has called the election before the deadline!!
    "Called it for" as in she called it for June 8th.
    I am afraid you are not making yourself clear here . You replied to my initial comment with 'If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?'.I have pointed out that that is precisely what she has done!
    Yes, called it for May 4th, for example. I'm not talking about the day of the announcement.

    In any case, if this was about expenses, why would she set the date *after* the deadine?
    That is beside the point. You really are totally incoherent here - which is unlike you. I suspect that alcohol has intervened. . Good Night.
    LOL, what? She called the election for June 8th. That is the context I was using "called it for" in.

    I'm not sure how my question is besides the point, and it now looks like you are deflecting by accusing me of being drunk.
    I have never accused you of being drunk. I just assumed it :wink:
    Like driving, PB and drinks do not mix :p
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Whilst we have no idea as to what the CPS is about to say , if prosecutions of one or more MPs occur it will enable Labour to run with the message 'Now we know the real reason for the calling of this election - despite TMs repeated deials of such an intention'. There would be some mileage in that - and it would undermine May's image of honesty and being straight forward.

    If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?
    But she has done!
    The last deadline is June 7th, so that's just wrong.
    I am not sure what you are saying. She has called the election before the deadline!!
    "Called it for" as in she called it for June 8th.
    I am afraid you are not making yourself clear here . You replied to my initial comment with 'If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?'.I have pointed out that that is precisely what she has done!
    Yes, called it for May 4th, for example. I'm not talking about the day of the announcement.

    In any case, if this was about expenses, why would she set the date *after* the deadine?
    That is beside the point. You really are totally incoherent here - which is unlike you. I suspect that alcohol has intervened. . Good Night.
    LOL, what? She called the election for June 8th. That is the context I was using "called it for" in.

    I'm not sure how my question is besides the point, and it now looks like you are deflecting by accusing me of being drunk.
    I have never accused you of being drunk. I just assumed it :wink:
    Like driving, PB and drinks do not mix :p
    PB and driving is a marriage made in heaven :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Whilst we have no idea as to what the CPS is about to say , if prosecutions of one or more MPs occur it will enable Labour to run with the message 'Now we know the real reason for the calling of this election - despite TMs repeated deials of such an intention'. There would be some mileage in that - and it would undermine May's image of honesty and being straight forward.

    If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?
    But she has done!
    The last deadline is June 7th, so that's just wrong.
    I am not sure what you are saying. She has called the election before the deadline!!
    "Called it for" as in she called it for June 8th.
    I am afraid you are not making yourself clear here . You replied to my initial comment with 'If that was the reason, surely she would have callled it for before the deadline?'.I have pointed out that that is precisely what she has done!
    Yes, called it for May 4th, for example. I'm not talking about the day of the announcement.

    In any case, if this was about expenses, why would she set the date *after* the deadine?
    That is beside the point. You really are totally incoherent here - which is unlike you. I suspect that alcohol has intervened. . Good Night.
    LOL, what? She called the election for June 8th. That is the context I was using "called it for" in.

    I'm not sure how my question is besides the point, and it now looks like you are deflecting by accusing me of being drunk.
    I have never accused you of being drunk. I just assumed it :wink:
    Like driving, PB and drinks do not mix :p
    PB and driving is a marriage made in heaven :p
    Far safer than PB and drinking :D
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MsNBC saying this is worse than the Saturday Night Massacre in 1973.

    It must be overreaction Tuesday.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Comey's plane now rolling at LAX
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    It looks like a GS3, but that's just my opinion. Presumably a government plane. On takeoff roll now
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Tim_B said:

    It looks like a GS3, but that's just my opinion. Presumably a government plane. On takeoff roll now

    He's off to Guantanamo? :p
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    It looks like a GS3, but that's just my opinion. Presumably a government plane. On takeoff roll now

    He's off to Guantanamo? :p
    Probably San Francisco - he can be certain it's a Sanctuary City :smile:
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,856
    Tim_B said:

    It looks like a GS3, but that's just my opinion. Presumably a government plane. On takeoff roll now

    It's a G550 using a 'Jena' callsign. ie non-FBI a/c operating for the Feds.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Dura_Ace said:

    Tim_B said:

    It looks like a GS3, but that's just my opinion. Presumably a government plane. On takeoff roll now

    It's a G550 using a 'Jena' callsign. ie non-FBI a/c operating for the Feds.
    At least I had the fact it was a Gulfstream correct ....a product of my home state of Georgia!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Dictatorship.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    surbiton said:

    Dictatorship.

    It's not dictatorship, it's strong and stable.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    By the way I am seeing Libdem ads on youtube and PB.com. Very bad targetting resources since I voted LEAVE, Voted tory last time am in a safe labour seat (12,000+ majority) and will be voting tory again. Any other PB tories seeing this. Really a waste of their limited resources, sell Libdems. Theonly reason to advertise to me is that i live in a council that was 60% REMAIN.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    Re 100 Labour MPs to form "progressive" breakaway group after election. First elect 100 Labour MPs
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    Tim_B said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tim_B said:

    It looks like a GS3, but that's just my opinion. Presumably a government plane. On takeoff roll now

    It's a G550 using a 'Jena' callsign. ie non-FBI a/c operating for the Feds.
    At least I had the fact it was a Gulfstream correct ....a product of my home state of Georgia!
    As in "He's from Georgia and doesn't speak the language very well" Tom Lehrer
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Icarus said:

    Tim_B said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tim_B said:

    It looks like a GS3, but that's just my opinion. Presumably a government plane. On takeoff roll now

    It's a G550 using a 'Jena' callsign. ie non-FBI a/c operating for the Feds.
    At least I had the fact it was a Gulfstream correct ....a product of my home state of Georgia!
    As in "He's from Georgia and doesn't speak the language very well" Tom Lehrer
    and the relevance of Tom Lehrer in this context would be what exactly?.......

    The Gulf Stream plant is in Savannah Georgia. They turn out an excellent product. On several occasions I've been fortunate enough to fly in one.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Will Trump be the President at the end of 2017 ?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    surbiton said:

    Will Trump be the President at the end of 2017 ?

    yup
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tim_B said:

    surbiton said:

    Will Trump be the President at the end of 2017 ?

    yup
    How about 2027?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Nope, as he can only serve two terms, so unless he has a sabaticcal (ie steps down for a term, or loses a term) it wont happen
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tim_B said:

    PB and driving is a marriage made in heaven :p

    Please belt up ....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,991
    Tim_B said:

    MsNBC saying this is worse than the Saturday Night Massacre in 1973.

    It must be overreaction Tuesday.

    The attorney general and his deputy resigned in protest on that occasion; this time around they are acting as the President's willing pawns. I'd say MSNBC have it about right.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,530
    Funny how the same talking heads who have spent the last few days saying Comey should resign over his role in the Clinton emails, now think it was terrible that he got fired and it must have been because of the Russians!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,991

    Irish police halt prosecution of Stephen Fry for blasphemy

    Police could not find enough people outraged at actor’s anti-God remarks on TV after only one viewer complained

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2017/may/09/irish-police-halt-prosecution-of-stephen-fry-for-blasphemy

    What a total waste of time on the back of a single f##king complaint.

    Not a complete waste of time if it helps weaken the vestiges of theocracy there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,991
    Tim_B said:

    One of those who might be a stand-in FBI director is Andrew McCabe. His wife ran for state senate in VA as a democrat in 2015, and got an eye poppingly large $700k contribution from a PAC run by Clinton pal and VA governor Terry McAuliffe.

    The decision to fire Comey was based on a recommendation from deputy AG Rod Rosenstein, confirmed 96-4 on April 25th.

    A decent man, but a patsy.
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/05/rod_rosenstein_is_being_used.html
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    122 comments so far on my Labour List piece:

    http://labourlist.org/2017/05/nick-palmer-why-corbyns-critics-need-the-mcdonnell-amendment/

    (written a couple of months ago but only appeared now for some editorial reason))

    It's a very interesting and well written article but which at the end seems to completely miss the point. It's not the question of whether the McDonnell amendment gives members a wide choice from both the left and the right but the impossibility of having a functioning party if the majority of MPs don't have confidence in their leader.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    President Trump to install a new FBI chief in his own image .... Bill O'Reilly is between positions .... as it were ....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Waking up every morning to hear that the President of the US is a nutter isn't even funny anymore.

    The whole world knows he is. The prestige of the US has dropped like a stone.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Pulpstar said:

    From £500 bet on Le Pen to claiming his son did it to claiming the whole thing was a hoax and he is actually a London remainer playing a prank it appears @wollygogg has finally given up and deleted his twitter account completely.

    The prankster didn't reveal his personal views, but given that his intention was to mock the credulity of remainers it is at least possible he was a leaver.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/861995885772894208

    The Conservatives are growing very ambitious. Provided that the news from the CPS doesn't do them lasting harm, Sedgefield could be in play. Challenging, but not impossible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Roger said:

    122 comments so far on my Labour List piece:

    http://labourlist.org/2017/05/nick-palmer-why-corbyns-critics-need-the-mcdonnell-amendment/

    (written a couple of months ago but only appeared now for some editorial reason))

    It's a very interesting and well written article but which at the end seems to completely miss the point. It's not the question of whether the McDonnell amendment gives members a wide choice from both the left and the right but the impossibility of having a functioning party if the majority of MPs don't have confidence in their leader.
    By my analysis, using Iain Dale's seat-by-seat predictions as a guide (rash, I know), there'll be about 22-23 of Corbyn's original nominators left in parliament after the election (discounting those that only nominated him for the fun of seeing him lose). Add a few more for new Corbynites parachuting into safe seat vacancies and the best estimate for the left's MPs on June 9th is about 25. Which is almost exactly 15% of Dale's forecast Labour seat figure of 165.

    So the 'problem' might solve itself without the McD amendment!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    JackW said:

    President Trump to install a new FBI chief in his own image .... Bill O'Reilly is between positions .... as it were ....

    Comey contributed to Trump winning the Presidency - and this is the thanks he gets.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    122 comments so far on my Labour List piece:

    http://labourlist.org/2017/05/nick-palmer-why-corbyns-critics-need-the-mcdonnell-amendment/

    (written a couple of months ago but only appeared now for some editorial reason))

    It's a very interesting and well written article but which at the end seems to completely miss the point. It's not the question of whether the McDonnell amendment gives members a wide choice from both the left and the right but the impossibility of having a functioning party if the majority of MPs don't have confidence in their leader.
    By my analysis, using Iain Dale's seat-by-seat predictions as a guide (rash, I know), there'll be about 22-23 of Corbyn's original nominators left in parliament after the election (discounting those that only nominated him for the fun of seeing him lose). Add a few more for new Corbynites parachuting into safe seat vacancies and the best estimate for the left's MPs on June 9th is about 25. Which is almost exactly 15% of Dale's forecast Labour seat figure of 165.

    So the 'problem' might solve itself without the McD amendment!
    And what a sad state of affairs. I have some sympathy for those leftist MPs who voted for their man but the others who voted to see him lose have effectively wrecked the party.

    It looks likely Labour will split which I think is a good thing. We need a strong centre left party and until they have a clear out like they did Militant in the 80's it's not going to happen.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257

    https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/861995885772894208

    The Conservatives are growing very ambitious. Provided that the news from the CPS doesn't do them lasting harm, Sedgefield could be in play. Challenging, but not impossible.

    As Blair's old seat, it would be totemic....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    Y0kel said:

    Normally this would be the big news of tomorrow

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/862049452093304832

    Why this story has legs

    Lord Mandelson, the architect of new Labour, suggested moderate MPs could learn a lesson from the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential elections.

    He said that the “simple truth of Macron’s victory is that he won by leaving his party, not despite doing so. We have to understand just how fed up people are with traditional party structures”.

    How many times have we heard the rumour of a breakaway since Corbyn got elected?
    Why should this talk result in anything different?
    Because they have tried and failed a number of times to depose Corbyn and regain their party. If Corbyn leads them to a disastrous defeat and refuses to step down they have five more years of the same to look forward to. Macron has shown them what is possible.
    If they split away in sufficient numbers they can form the official opposition with all the perks that that entails.
    If they have any sense they will make PR (by STV preferably) their new party policy and make agreements with the LibDems and Greens.The old Corbynite Labour party can remain as a small extreme left group as it always should have been.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited May 2017
    When I was an assistant photographer I had to take something to Red Star which was a parcel service run by British Rail.

    I walked into a scruffy office with a counter and on the other side was a man in uniform sitting on a wooden chair reading a newspaper. He glanced up and saw me with my parcel and went back to his fag and his newspaper. After several minutes he carefully folded his paper stood up and said "Is this what you're sending....."

    I was an ardent lefty back then and I loathed the Tories but I don't want to go back to those days and I'm afraid that's what Corbyn spells to me and many who were alive in the 70's.

    His time has gone and though I sympathise with his ideals the thought of service and the related problems with the unions in those days makes me shiver.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    New thread!
This discussion has been closed.