No Cat Smith as next leader odds? Her positivity in the face of defeat would be just what they need.
Isn't she going to lose her seat?
Hmm. LAB-CON marginal, 1265 majority. You're almost certainly right.
Gone, gone, gone.
OUT OUT OUT !
Trying to think of a list of MPs who I am looking forward to seeing losing the most on 8th June. Probably Beckett, as she is one of the main authors of this disaster.
Be a shame if Jon Cruddas goes though. Thoughtful chap. The new Progressive Party will need chaps like that.
I have a bet on Ma Beckett going. And one on the other Derby seat as well, which felt like buying money.
Off topic and apologies if previously mentioned - Uk candidate who came third in 2015 in North Norfolk is standing down this time and 8328 votes are up for grabs. Norman Lamb majority in 2015 was 4043
Roast Lamb I'm afraid.
Not necessarily. People tend to forget that quite a bit of the UKIP vote had little to do with the EU at all. In 2015 they - and to some extent the Greens - acted as the NOTA option which had often driven the LibDem vote pre- Coalition. There is no particular reason why those voters would shift en masse to the Tories - indeed they are just as likely to switch to the LibDems or the Greens. Most of the pro-Brexit voters have probably moved to the Tories anyway , and it is unlikely that the UKIP vote would have been more than 3000 next month had they put up a candidate. The local elections were quite good for the LDs in North Norfolk and I doubt that this changes much.
Err have you seen the polling, models and the locals ?
The premise that 'townies' do not understand the countryside is a myth - the ban is supported by a majority in rural areas and in all regions of the country. Many farmers and landowners in Devon and Cornwall do not allow hunting on their land - apart from animal welfare concerns, there is the pratical consideration of riders bashing down fences and hedges. The National Trust does allow hunting on its land, unfortunately, and it has received sustained bad publicity with allegations of illegal hunts.
I agree this is about getting the Countryside Alliance on board to assist with campaigning in the election - didn't David Cameron have a major falling out with them last time?
Yvette Cooper may have had the odd good performance in the HoC against in the main easy targets, but stick in front of a camera and start firing a few tough tough questions at her and she's hopeless in my view ... I mean really poor.
Well who else do Labour have ?
Macron will be running France for a few years & Doubt Obama will be interested
Off topic and apologies if previously mentioned - Uk candidate who came third in 2015 in North Norfolk is standing down this time and 8328 votes are up for grabs. Norman Lamb majority in 2015 was 4043
Roast Lamb I'm afraid.
Just to be clear there will no UKIP candidate standing in this general election in North Nofolk and UKIP supporters are being urged to vote Conservative by Michael Baker
"The pro-EU pressure group Open Britain has said it is planning to provide activists to help Mr Lamb lose defend his seat."
If there's no Ukip candidate in play at all, then it makes things very much more challenging for Lamb, doesn't it? Given the polling evidence, backed up by the Ukip collapse in the local elections, I'm working on the assumption that no less than about 50% of the 2015 Ukip vote will go straight to the Tories; that alone would've been sufficient to erase the Liberal Democrat majority. If the remainder of the Ukip vote is now looking for another home to go to then, whilst it's probable that some of them will sit on their hands, you'd have to reckon that a majority of those who do go out and vote will also back the Conservatives.
There is little or no net migration from Con to Lib Dem indicated by the opinion polls, and the North Norfolk constituency itself is Brexity (the district, which is broadly coterminous with this seat, voted 59% Leave,) and has the third highest percentage of voters aged 65 and over of any seat in the country. One would imagine that the Lib Dems would have to squeeze what's left of the Labour vote like a vice to stand a chance of hanging on.
The UKIP vote collapsed in the local elections in North Norfolk . It went largely to the Lib Dems . I know you do not understand this but there you are
Yvette Cooper may have had the odd good performance in the HoC against in the main easy targets, but stick in front of a camera and start firing a few tough tough questions at her and she's hopeless in my view ... I mean really poor.
Well who else do Labour have ?
Macron will be running France for a few years & Doubt Obama will be interested
You are forgetting The Prince over the Water.
And Hillary - she's free, I think!
No, she is busy running for POTUS 2020. They haven't found out how to turn the software off yet.
No Cat Smith as next leader odds? Her positivity in the face of defeat would be just what they need.
Isn't she going to lose her seat?
Hmm. LAB-CON marginal, 1265 majority. You're almost certainly right.
Gone, gone, gone.
OUT OUT OUT !
Trying to think of a list of MPs who I am looking forward to seeing losing the most on 8th June. Probably Beckett, as she is one of the main authors of this disaster.
Be a shame if Jon Cruddas goes though. Thoughtful chap. The new Progressive Party will need chaps like that.
I have a bet on Ma Beckett going. And one on the other Derby seat as well, which felt like buying money.
Indeed.
We will owe Corbyn an enormous debt of gratitude by the time this is finished.
Off topic and apologies if previously mentioned - Uk candidate who came third in 2015 in North Norfolk is standing down this time and 8328 votes are up for grabs. Norman Lamb majority in 2015 was 4043
Roast Lamb I'm afraid.
Not necessarily. People tend to forget that quite a bit of the UKIP vote had little to do with the EU at all. In 2015 they - and to some extent the Greens - acted as the NOTA option which had often driven the LibDem vote pre- Coalition. There is no particular reason why those voters would shift en masse to the Tories - indeed they are just as likely to switch to the LibDems or the Greens. Most of the pro-Brexit voters have probably moved to the Tories anyway , and it is unlikely that the UKIP vote would have been more than 3000 next month had they put up a candidate. The local elections were quite good for the LDs in North Norfolk and I doubt that this changes much.
Except all the polling and canvassing shows they are massively going to the Tories
Yvette Cooper may have had the odd good performance in the HoC against in the main easy targets, but stick in front of a camera and start firing a few tough tough questions at her and she's hopeless in my view ... I mean really poor.
Well who else do Labour have ?
Macron will be running France for a few years & Doubt Obama will be interested
Wasn't Michael Sheen rumoured to be thinking about going into politics? If he could merge his Blair and his Clough he'd be perfect to bring Labour back to life.
Why don't Labour go for somebody like Stephen Kinnock. Go for a fresh start. He's articulate and seems to understand what Labour have got to do to get back into power. Too much baggage with people like Yvette Cooper.
Why don't Labour go for somebody like Stephen Kinnock. Go for a fresh start. He's articulate and seems to understand what Labour have got to do to get back into power. Too much baggage with people like Yvette Cooper.
It would have the merit of symmetry, if not of sanity.
Shame there's no market on how many times TMay will say 'str*ng and st*ble' tonight on the One Show. I've put in the asterisks in case OGH has got some anti-Tory spam software operating!
Off topic and apologies if previously mentioned - Uk candidate who came third in 2015 in North Norfolk is standing down this time and 8328 votes are up for grabs. Norman Lamb majority in 2015 was 4043
Roast Lamb I'm afraid.
Just to be clear there will no UKIP candidate standing in this general election in North Nofolk and UKIP supporters are being urged to vote Conservative by Michael Baker
"The pro-EU pressure group Open Britain has said it is planning to provide activists to help Mr Lamb lose defend his seat."
If there's no Ukip candidate in play at all, then it makes things very much more challenging for Lamb, doesn't it? Given the polling evidence, backed up by the Ukip collapse in the local elections, I'm working on the assumption that no less than about 50% of the 2015 Ukip vote will go straight to the Tories; that alone would've been sufficient to erase the Liberal Democrat majority. If the remainder of the Ukip vote is now looking for another home to go to then, whilst it's probable that some of them will sit on their hands, you'd have to reckon that a majority of those who do go out and vote will also back the Conservatives.
There is little or no net migration from Con to Lib Dem indicated by the opinion polls, and the North Norfolk constituency itself is Brexity (the district, which is broadly coterminous with this seat, voted 59% Leave,) and has the third highest percentage of voters aged 65 and over of any seat in the country. One would imagine that the Lib Dems would have to squeeze what's left of the Labour vote like a vice to stand a chance of hanging on.
That's why I looked at the 2010 -rather than speculate where the UKIP voters came from and went to, just look at the seat before the UKIP surge
In 2010 in Norfolk North it was LibDem 55.5% Tory 32.1& Lab 5.8% UKIP 5.4%
Nationally in England vs 2010, the Tories are up ~13%, Lib Dems down ~14%, labour down ~1% UKIP up 1%
Apply that swing to the 2010 results and the Tory would win, but it would be close and maybe an incumbent beats the national swing..
This article should be mandatory reading for any Labour "moderates" who think Corbyn is an electoral disaster, yet at the same time somehow also think going for an ultra-pro-EU successor would be a good move.
The desire to rebuild "Blair" and his way is palpable among the self-styled 'centrists'.
Off topic and apologies if previously mentioned - Uk candidate who came third in 2015 in North Norfolk is standing down this time and 8328 votes are up for grabs. Norman Lamb majority in 2015 was 4043
Roast Lamb I'm afraid.
Just to be clear there will no UKIP candidate standing in this general election in North Nofolk and UKIP supporters are being urged to vote Conservative by Michael Baker
"The pro-EU pressure group Open Britain has said it is planning to provide activists to help Mr Lamb lose defend his seat."
If there's no Ukip candidate in play at all, then it makes things very much more challenging for Lamb, doesn't it? Given the polling evidence, backed up by the Ukip collapse in the local elections, I'm working on the assumption that no less than about 50% of the 2015 Ukip vote will go straight to the Tories; that alone would've been sufficient to erase the Liberal Democrat majority. If the remainder of the Ukip vote is now looking for another home to go to then, whilst it's probable that some of them will sit on their hands, you'd have to reckon that a majority of those who do go out and vote will also back the Conservatives.
There is little or no net migration from Con to Lib Dem indicated by the opinion polls, and the North Norfolk constituency itself is Brexity (the district, which is broadly coterminous with this seat, voted 59% Leave,) and has the third highest percentage of voters aged 65 and over of any seat in the country. One would imagine that the Lib Dems would have to squeeze what's left of the Labour vote like a vice to stand a chance of hanging on.
The UKIP vote collapsed in the local elections in North Norfolk . It went largely to the Lib Dems . I know you do not understand this but there you are
Agreed
the Tory got 15,000 votes in both 2010 and 2015. Lamb was down 8,000 Labour up 3,000 and UKIP up 5,000.
I suspect UKIP voters are quite different in different parts of the country, hence my concern with using blanket "50% go to the Tories" approaches.
Kuensberg came across in the BBC interview rather badly I thought . Corbyn had implicitly answered her question right at the beginning with his 'the decision was made last year'. She made herself look stupid.I wonder how much Tory Central Office might be paying her to go to those lengths to trip up Corbyn?
Don't be ridiculous.
Even by BBC standards, Kuensberg has a hugely inflated opinion of her opinion and her importance. She looks down at all politicians as a matter of routine and seems to think that being rude is the same as being effective.
That is probably correct. Broadcasters are vulnerable to the charge of bias in terms of the stories they decide to run with. I have often pondered this - even going back to the days of Robin Day. How are they able to ascertain the issues and related questions which the public wants answered at a particular time? How does Kuensberg know that Brexit is the key question for most voters? She is making an assumption - which may be true or false - and it raises the question as to what right she has - ditto John Humphries , John Snow et al - to decide that X is to be the burning issue for the next day or so.When these people raise questions likely to be helpful to the Tories/Labour/SNP , it quite naturally will feed accusations of bias from parties wishing to see the focus directed elsewhere.
Comments
2015:
Labour Margaret Beckett 20,007
Conservative Evonne Williams 11,179
UKIP Victor Webb 6,341
Liberal Democrat Joe Naitta 1,717
UKIP may stand. The guy still looking for money though: https://www.gofundme.com/make-alan-graves-a-ukip-mp
We will owe Corbyn an enormous debt of gratitude by the time this is finished.
No problem with anti-Semitism in the Labour party, they had an investigation and everything...
NEW THREAD
In 2010 in Norfolk North it was
LibDem 55.5%
Tory 32.1&
Lab 5.8%
UKIP 5.4%
Nationally in England vs 2010, the Tories are up ~13%, Lib Dems down ~14%, labour down ~1% UKIP up 1%
Apply that swing to the 2010 results and the Tory would win, but it would be close and maybe an incumbent beats the national swing..
the Tory got 15,000 votes in both 2010 and 2015. Lamb was down 8,000 Labour up 3,000 and UKIP up 5,000.
I suspect UKIP voters are quite different in different parts of the country, hence my concern with using blanket "50% go to the Tories" approaches.