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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Brexit dilemma: the right policy led by the wrong peo

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  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    bobajobPB said:

    Any sign of Moniker? Is s/he still calling this one for his/her nasty little fascist friend?

    She wants wealth taxes, higher social spending, limited working hours, worker control of companies, tariffs. Sounds like a leftie to me, not a fascist.
    She's a racist fascist.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Alistair said:

    Edinburgh West - Lib Dems @1.5 seems like a price the is incredibly generous.

    For it not to come in it would have to man there is no correlation between Holyrood & Council results and the General Election and at that point how could you make ay constituency bet in confidence.

    What do you think of East Dunbartonshire? Will the LibDems GAIN it? I feel like the MP is particuarly annoying, I'm not just saying that because he's a SNP MP. Tasmina for example is much more likeable.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,355

    bobajobPB said:

    Any sign of Moniker? Is s/he still calling this one for his/her nasty little fascist friend?

    She wants wealth taxes, higher social spending, limited working hours, worker control of companies, tariffs. Sounds like a leftie to me, not a fascist.
    You obviously don't know what a Fascist is
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    Exit poll in 5 minutes?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    ydoethur said:

    surbiton said:

    ydoethur said:

    Purely anecdotal.

    I was speaking to my father earlier. He's an ardent Europhile. Works with lots of EU agencies on vaccines and disease control. Spends a lot of time in the EU. Absolutely devastated when Britain voted leave - given it came so soon after my mother's death, I was actually really worried about him and made a point of getting down that weekend to visit him to try and cheer him up.

    After Juncker's behaviour, he says that he wants the EU to be told they can shove their demands, go for Hard Brexit, possibly going back in on a sort of enhanced EFTA deal later when Juncker has been sacked (or preferably, sectioned). He believes that the Commission have proven they are acting in bad faith and someone needs to stand up to them.

    It's also swung him round to hoping Marine Le Pen wins, to give the EU a bloody nose.

    To give you some idea of how shocked I still am, it's the equivalent of hearing the Pope has conducted a same sex marriage - to his lover - while Adolf Hitler discourses on all the mighty virtues and achievements of the Jewish race that he admires so much. I exaggerate only very slightly.

    I don't know whether Juncker was deliberately sabotaging talks, but if my father's reaction is in any way typical he's managed it whether that was his intention or not.

    Thanks. We got the message.

    He hates the EU so much that he hopes a Fascist wins. Great !
    The point being that he has been an anti-Fascist and fervently pro-EU all his life. And when I say an anti-Fascist, I do not mean he says he is one before hanging out with Holocaust deniers or cheering on Hamas. That's how angry he is. It is a genuinely sobering turn of events. It would be the equivalent of you disowning Corbyn and admitting Abbott is insane.

    It was a silly anecdote and not worthy of a response, much like Mortimer's anecdote that Oxford has been taken over by hordes of hard Brexit millennials in response to Junker.

    Brexit folk indulge in a large dose of fantasy.....

  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    surbiton said:

    These Tories are really something. Read Richard Nabavi, Fitalass etc. before June 23rd 2016 and you would have thought Cameron and Osborne walked on water.

    Now, they have been discarded and fragrance comes out of May's arse.

    What utter garbage. I've repeatedly made clear that I'm not a huge fan of Theresa May, and that I think that she will prove nothing like as good a PM as Cameron. But we shall see, I keep an open mind, on that as on every other issue.

    However, on the narrow but very important issue of her Brexit position, I think she's got it right. Not that that is particularly difficult; her position is simple common sense.
    The first bit is true - Richard has indeed been fairly indifferent about May from Day One.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651

    Pulpstar said:

    Why have Macron's chances upped from 8/1 to 4/1 to et 65%+ as trailed on here?

    Well I posted and bet below that I thought the 8-1 was big !
    you're not a good enough tipster to drive it to 3.3! there's been a leak
    I have £100 @ 10-11 Ladbrokes on the 60-65% band, +15.85 35.01-40 Le Pen, +.21 other bands

    -17 other bands Macron + 134.40 65.01 - 70.00 and some premium charge calcs on that (Providing Macron wins :p)
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Dadge said:

    FF43 has written very precisely how the talks are sequenced to lock down this outcome. Short of going to war, it's not clear what May could do to prevent this result. Certainly her threats of walking away are not seen as credible.

    That might be a mistake. I think she will walk. I dont think they will give her enough to sell to the country, and she is not about to commit suicide like Cameron did.

    I agree. She will put her own position first and then seek to blame any collapse on the EU. You can see the ground being prepared for that now. It will probably work for a while, as well. The issue, though, is that it is not a sustainable strategy. Having waved the flag and blamed the duplicitous foreigners, what happens then?
    The question then is when will she walk? If the talks break down early and she walks we'll be in for months of chaos while still in the EU and apparently planning for an immediate hard Brexit. The odds are that she'll be back at the table before we leave.

    Alternatively if she leaves it too late, the cost of walking will go up.
    Or she walks, and uses her huge majority to repeal the European Communities Act (1972) and we are out immediately. If we are neither going to give anything or get anything, there is no point in sitting around, might as well get on with those trade deals.
    Fascinating that the talk has turned to May doing a Cameron. What is it about the Tory party that allows its leaders to get away with failure?
    Doing a Cameron means promising to get the earth, telling voters you will walk if you dont get it, coming back with a little piece of tinsel, telling voters that it might look like a bit of tinsel but really if you look closely you will see its the third planet from the sun. Then when they dont beleive you walk off in a huff.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Sandpit said:

    Exit poll in 5 minutes?

    Yeah. Balls deep lol
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    nunu said:
    It's fine, monstrous amount of abstentions from Melenchon voters as expected.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    I wussed out on the first round a bit to get green, but the margin is much much bigger this time so I think that was correct. Staying in.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Indigo, or saying you've acquired a veto on the colour of the gimp suit's zips...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,161
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Purely anecdotal.

    I was speaking to my father earlier. He's an ardent Europhile. Works with lots of EU agencies on vaccines and disease control. Spends a lot of time in the EU. Absolutely devastated when Britain voted leave - given it came so soon after my mother's death, I was actually really worried about him and made a point of getting down that weekend to visit him to try and cheer him up.

    After Juncker's behaviour, he says that he wants the EU to be told they can shove their demands, go for Hard Brexit, possibly going back in on a sort of enhanced EFTA deal later when Juncker has been sacked (or preferably, sectioned). He believes that the Commission have proven they are acting in bad faith and someone needs to stand up to them.

    It's also swung him round to hoping Marine Le Pen wins, to give the EU a bloody nose.

    To give you some idea of how shocked I still am, it's the equivalent of hearing the Pope has conducted a same sex marriage - to his lover - while Adolf Hitler discourses on all the mighty virtues and achievements of the Jewish race that he admires so much. I exaggerate only very slightly.

    I don't know whether Juncker was deliberately sabotaging talks, but if my father's reaction is in any way typical he's managed it whether that was his intention or not.

    Your father hasn't thought it through. We crash out but there will be no deal with the EU, or practically speaking with the main countries in Europe, the continent we happen to be part of. We will be outside our natural market that makes up 50% of out trade. There will be absolutely no prospect of an "enhanced EFTA deal later". It seriously hampers our efforts to develop relations outside of the EU. Is that what people really want? Is it what Theresa May really wants?. We always have a choice.

    Until today I would have said 'no.'

    But the answer's starting to look worryingly like 'yes.'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Countdown. Like the countdown to the Challenger launch perhaps for me...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    20 !
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:
    It's fine, monstrous amount of abstentions from Melenchon voters as expected.
    They abstain when there is actual fascist on the ballot. Shameful. This is why I can never ever trust the far-left like Jeremy Corbyn and his ilk.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,161
    tyson said:

    ydoethur said:

    surbiton said:

    ydoethur said:

    Purely anecdotal.

    I was speaking to my father earlier. He's an ardent Europhile. Works with lots of EU agencies on vaccines and disease control. Spends a lot of time in the EU. Absolutely devastated when Britain voted leave - given it came so soon after my mother's death, I was actually really worried about him and made a point of getting down that weekend to visit him to try and cheer him up.

    After Juncker's behaviour, he says that he wants the EU to be told they can shove their demands, go for Hard Brexit, possibly going back in on a sort of enhanced EFTA deal later when Juncker has been sacked (or preferably, sectioned). He believes that the Commission have proven they are acting in bad faith and someone needs to stand up to them.

    It's also swung him round to hoping Marine Le Pen wins, to give the EU a bloody nose.

    To give you some idea of how shocked I still am, it's the equivalent of hearing the Pope has conducted a same sex marriage - to his lover - while Adolf Hitler discourses on all the mighty virtues and achievements of the Jewish race that he admires so much. I exaggerate only very slightly.

    I don't know whether Juncker was deliberately sabotaging talks, but if my father's reaction is in any way typical he's managed it whether that was his intention or not.

    Thanks. We got the message.

    He hates the EU so much that he hopes a Fascist wins. Great !
    The point being that he has been an anti-Fascist and fervently pro-EU all his life. And when I say an anti-Fascist, I do not mean he says he is one before hanging out with Holocaust deniers or cheering on Hamas. That's how angry he is. It is a genuinely sobering turn of events. It would be the equivalent of you disowning Corbyn and admitting Abbott is insane.

    It was a silly anecdote and not worthy of a response, much like Mortimer's anecdote that Oxford has been taken over by hordes of hard Brexit millennials in response to Junker.

    Brexit folk indulge in a large dose of fantasy.....

    Except he and I were both Remainers Tyson, and I still am.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2017
    An exit poll showing Le Pen at 38% would suit me perfectly. If she's significantly higher than that (i.e. 2-7%) then I'm even, and she can be up to 3 points lower and I'm still +£100. Anything lower than that would be sub-optimal.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Exit poll in 5 minutes?

    Yeah. Balls deep lol
    Here goes. Hopefully 35 or more!

    Edit: Ooh, squeaky balls time for me! :o
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    65%. The fascist got smashed. 40% - my arse!
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Macron!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Any sign of Moniker? Is s/he still calling this one for his/her nasty little fascist friend?

    She wants wealth taxes, higher social spending, limited working hours, worker control of companies, tariffs. Sounds like a leftie to me, not a fascist.
    She's a racist fascist.
    Who proposes policies commonly supported by lefties and communists...
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    wooo! 65.5%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373

    NEW THREAD

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    surbiton said:

    65%. The fascist got smashed. 40% - my arse!

    Well done Macron, although still higher than one would like for a fascist. Let's hope a third Le Pen run does not double the FN score yet again!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    @CYAN WHERE ARE YOUR BOYS NOW
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Any sign of Moniker? Is s/he still calling this one for his/her nasty little fascist friend?

    She wants wealth taxes, higher social spending, limited working hours, worker control of companies, tariffs. Sounds like a leftie to me, not a fascist.
    She's a racist fascist.
    Who proposes policies commonly supported by lefties and communists...
    Now go and lie in a dark room.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Any sign of Moniker? Is s/he still calling this one for his/her nasty little fascist friend?

    She wants wealth taxes, higher social spending, limited working hours, worker control of companies, tariffs. Sounds like a leftie to me, not a fascist.
    She's a racist fascist.
    Who proposes policies commonly supported by lefties and communists...
    She's a socialist nazi then.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Any sign of Moniker? Is s/he still calling this one for his/her nasty little fascist friend?

    She wants wealth taxes, higher social spending, limited working hours, worker control of companies, tariffs. Sounds like a leftie to me, not a fascist.
    She's a racist fascist.
    Who proposes policies commonly supported by lefties and communists...
    She is a nasty racist fascist loser. Now fuck off Le Pen, and take the rest of your nasty little family with you.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410

    surbiton said:

    These Tories are really something. Read Richard Nabavi, Fitalass etc. before June 23rd 2016 and you would have thought Cameron and Osborne walked on water.

    Now, they have been discarded and fragrance comes out of May's arse.

    What utter garbage. I've repeatedly made clear that I'm not a huge fan of Theresa May, and that I think that she will prove nothing like as good a PM as Cameron. But we shall see, I keep an open mind, on that as on every other issue.

    However, on the narrow but very important issue of her Brexit position, I think she's got it right. Not that that is particularly difficult; her position is simple common sense.
    Co-opting UKIP supporters and their politics makes a lot of sense for her party and her position. The problem is that she has oversold the prospects for Brexit, which inevitably will be a massively compromised affair.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,105

    bobajobPB said:

    Any sign of Moniker? Is s/he still calling this one for his/her nasty little fascist friend?

    She wants wealth taxes, higher social spending, limited working hours, worker control of companies, tariffs. Sounds like a leftie to me, not a fascist.
    Those are all standard fascist policies. The actuality of fascism is, of course, different....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,161
    surbiton said:

    65%. The fascist got smashed. 40% - my arse!

    Surbiton, although I have no doubt your arse would be much preferable to Le Pen as president, I doubt if it would have got 40%!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    FF43 said:

    surbiton said:

    These Tories are really something. Read Richard Nabavi, Fitalass etc. before June 23rd 2016 and you would have thought Cameron and Osborne walked on water.

    Now, they have been discarded and fragrance comes out of May's arse.

    What utter garbage. I've repeatedly made clear that I'm not a huge fan of Theresa May, and that I think that she will prove nothing like as good a PM as Cameron. But we shall see, I keep an open mind, on that as on every other issue.

    However, on the narrow but very important issue of her Brexit position, I think she's got it right. Not that that is particularly difficult; her position is simple common sense.
    Co-opting UKIP supporters and their politics makes a lot of sense for her party and her position. The problem is that she has oversold the prospects for Brexit, which inevitably will be a massively compromised affair.
    Perhaps - but it will take time for the position to become apparent, and it's unclear how much the Tories will be affected by what level of poor Brexit deal or consequences.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    MACRON !
    Vive la France
    Vive La Republique
    Vive La Betfair
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Any sign of Moniker? Is s/he still calling this one for his/her nasty little fascist friend?

    She wants wealth taxes, higher social spending, limited working hours, worker control of companies, tariffs. Sounds like a leftie to me, not a fascist.
    She's a racist fascist.
    Who proposes policies commonly supported by lefties and communists...
    She is a nasty racist fascist loser. Now fuck off Le Pen, and take the rest of your nasty little family with you.
    No chance, the Catholic Fundamentalist version will be out for a run in the next election.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Every now and again I have this twinge of doubt that Mrs May won't get a landslide.

    Then I pop on here to be reminded that the self-righteousness we're currently witnessing at the heart of the Labour leadership is increasingly soaking into the entire party. As a Tory, It is a very reassuring form of political therapy at the moment.....

    What I don't get is that I can understand the positions of disagreement; it is the hatred I struggle with.

    I don't hate Corbyn, Miliband, Brown etc - in fact I shed a tear when Brown left No 10 for the last time. It was a sobering moment of humanity amongst the often punishing cut and thrust of British politics.



  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Pulpstar said:

    MACRON !
    Vive la France
    Vive La Republique
    Vive La Betfair

    :smile:
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Mortimer said:

    Every now and again I have this twinge of doubt that Mrs May won't get a landslide.

    Then I pop on here to be reminded that the self-righteousness we're currently witnessing at the heart of the Labour leadership is increasingly soaking into the entire party. As a Tory, It is a very reassuring form of political therapy at the moment.....

    What I don't get is that I can understand the positions of disagreement; it is the hatred I struggle with.

    I don't hate Corbyn, Miliband, Brown etc - in fact I shed a tear when Brown left No 10 for the last time. It was a sobering moment of humanity amongst the often punishing cut and thrust of British politics.



    I dont think she will get a landslide full stop.
This discussion has been closed.