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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Brexit dilemma: the right policy led by the wrong people? Plus Kasich 2020 rumours

Despite Labour voters support for a second referendum on EU membership, the party’s support for Brexit is probably the right policy writes Keiran Pedley. The Conservatives are vulnerable if Theresa May cannot negotiate a deal but not if Labour looks ‘pro-Brussels’.

Read the full story here

kle4

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct. in principle I'd like the negotiations to have a satisfactory result for all sides. But on the basis of the British approach so far, the appropriate European response is "Go away, have your election, and come back when you've stopped posturing." Juncker's and Merkel's comment seem fair enough in the circs.

Except you are blaming only one side for things not going well, when cyclefree is, I believe, making the point that both sides have been at fault. Indeed, that is the conclusion of the piece. You are saying we've been idiots and the Europeans are responding, when it is simply more complicated than that, since Tusk for one also chided Juncker (implicitly, when talking of the need for discretion, when the EU side were the ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false, and by framing it as 'Europeans are just responding to posturing May' that is what was claimed, even though the premise of the piece, which was not rebutted, being that they haven't exactly helped matters much either so far.

kle4

Aw man, I already posted a half dozen comments on this podcast when the wrong one was posted. I thought it a pretty good one - Kerian and co were very measured on the TMay outburst for instance.

SouthamObserver

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct. in principle I'd like the negotiations to have a satisfactory result for all sides. But on the basis of the British approach so far, the appropriate European response is "Go away, have your election, and come back when you've stopped posturing." Juncker's and Merkel's comment seem fair enough in the circs.

Except you are blaming only one side for things not going well, when cyclefree is, I believe, making the point that both sides have been at fault. Indeed, that is the conclusion of the piece. You are saying we've been idiots and the Europeans are responding, when it is simply more complicated than that, since Tusk for one also chided Juncker (implicitly, when talking of the need for discretion, when the EU side were the ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

kle4

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct. in principle I'd like the negotiations to have a satisfactory result for all sides. But on the basis of the British approach so far, the appropriate European response is "Go away, have your election, and come back when you've stopped posturing." Juncker's and Merkel's comment seem fair enough in the circs.

Except you are blaming only one side for things not going well, when cyclefree is, I believe, making the point that both sides have been at fault. Indeed, that is the conclusion of the piece. You are saying we've been idiots and the Europeans are responding, when it is simply more complicated than that, since Tusk for one also chided Juncker (implicitly, when talking of the need for discretion, when the EU side were the ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

SouthamObserver

Labour's policy should be to accept the Brexit vote, but to push for the softest Brexit possible. Corbyn made a huge mistake with the A50 three line whip - all it did was alienate Labour Remainers, while doing absolutely nothing to assuage Leavers. It showed, yet again, that he is simply not credible.

SouthamObserver

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except you are blaming only one side for things not going well, when cyclefree is, I believe, making the point that both sides have been at fault. Indeed, that is the conclusion of the piece. You are saying we've been idiots and the Europeans are responding, when it is simply more complicated than that, since Tusk for one also chided Juncker (implicitly, when talking of the need for discretion, when the EU side were the ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

I am sure it is electioneering from May. She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election. The problem is how far she will be able to pull back politically from the positions she is currently adopting. The anti-European press love this White Cliffs of Dover, we will fight them on the beaches rhetoric. When (if) it is replaced by conciliation and concession, May will face the kind of headlines that she has spent years working hard to avoid. Whether she has the stomach for that remains to be seen.

rottenborough

More reports from the frontline of Labour's looming catastrophe:

"Phil Catney, a senior politics lecturer at Keele University, which sits in the west of the constituency, says Newcastle [under Lyme] turning Tory would mark a significant moment for the Labour party.

“If Labour loses Newcastle – which it is probable will happen – it’s hard to see how Labour has got any prospect of getting back to power for at least a decade, or even more," he said. "You’re seeing a resurgence of working-class conservatism take hold in places like Newcastle.” "

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.bxerakNa7#.mp05nPQnk

FrancisUrquhart

rottenborough said:

More reports from the frontline of Labour's looming catastrophe:

"Phil Catney, a senior politics lecturer at Keele University, which sits in the west of the constituency, says Newcastle [under Lyme] turning Tory would mark a significant moment for the Labour party.

“If Labour loses Newcastle – which it is probable will happen – it’s hard to see how Labour has got any prospect of getting back to power for at least a decade, or even more," he said. "You’re seeing a resurgence of working-class conservatism take hold in places like Newcastle.” "

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.bxerakNa7#.mp05nPQnk

It is quite incredible these are places most hit by Thatcher's policies and ones were somebody being labelled as a Tory was probably one of the worst insults going.

However, lets wait and see. Like Stoke, I was very skeptical that UKIP or Tories would actually win, and sure enough they went for the foul mouthed donkey in the Red Rosette again.

AlsoIndigo

SouthamObserver said:

I am sure it is electioneering from May. She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election. The problem is how far she will be able to pull back politically from the positions she is currently adopting. The anti-European press love this White Cliffs of Dover, we will fight them on the beaches rhetoric. When (if) it is replaced by conciliation and concession, May will face the kind of headlines that she has spent years working hard to avoid. Whether she has the stomach for that remains to be seen.

I am sure all the politicians on other countries will understand in private, even if in public they pretend not to, after all they are using, or will be using variations on the same theme over the next few months as they stand for election. I am sure Merkel will be completely measured about BrExit later in the year for domestic consumption, especially if polling there moves the wrong way and she starts to feel threatened.

Malmesbury

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

:
Correct.e circs.

Except you are blaming only one side for things not going well, when cyclefree is, I believe, making the point that both sides have been at fault. Indeed, that is the conclusion of the piece. You are saying we've been idiots and the Europeans are responding, when it is simply more complicated than that, since Tusk for one also chided Juncker (implicitly, when talking of the need for discretion, when the EU side were the ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

I am sure it is electioneering from May. She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election. The problem is how far she will be able to pull back politically from the positions she is currently adopting. The anti-European press love this White Cliffs of Dover, we will fight them on the beaches rhetoric. When (if) it is replaced by conciliation and concession, May will face the kind of headlines that she has spent years working hard to avoid. Whether she has the stomach for that remains to be seen.

Interfering in elections is one of those irregular verbs. Bad when "they" do it, good when "we" do it.

Consider Clinton engineering all kinds of comedy with the Israeli elections....

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

foxinsoxuk

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except you are blaming only one side for things not going

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

I am sure it is electioneering from May. She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election. The problem is how far she will be able to pull back politically from the positions she is currently adopting. The anti-European press love this White Cliffs of Dover, we will fight them on the beaches rhetoric. When (if) it is replaced by conciliation and concession, May will face the kind of headlines that she has spent years working hard to avoid. Whether she has the stomach for that remains to be seen.

I don't think we need to feel singled out, this is a pretty clear intervention:

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/860126763015340033

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/brexit/status/861192311941636096

Sandpit

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

FrancisUrquhart

Mr Carmichael said: "John McDonnell seems to think it's 1917, not 2017. But the Marxism we're seeing in the Labour Party right now has more in common with Groucho than Karl.

"Groucho Marx once said that politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies."

AlsoIndigo

williamglenn said:

ttps://twitter.com/brexit/status/861192311941636096

MRDA.
European pension etc

RobD

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/brexit/status/861192311941636096

Of course he would say that.

Jason

SouthamObserver said:

Labour's policy should be to accept the Brexit vote, but to push for the softest Brexit possible. Corbyn made a huge mistake with the A50 three line whip - all it did was alienate Labour Remainers, while doing absolutely nothing to assuage Leavers. It showed, yet again, that he is simply not credible.

It's not that he isn't even credible. He's as thick as pig shit. Ed Miliband wasn't credible, but nobody would say he was thick. Corbyn is a piece of far left flotsam that has attached itself to Labour's rusting bulkhead. The two deserve each other.

Pulpstar

Indications on twitter seem to be that Macron is above 60%.

I make Ladbrokes 10-11 35-40% Le Pen a good bet, it is beating the betfair price.

foxinsoxuk

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

Pulpstar

Jesus I'll be glad when the exit poll arrives !

foxinsoxuk

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mr Carmichael said: "John McDonnell seems to think it's 1917, not 2017. But the Marxism we're seeing in the Labour Party right now has more in common with Groucho than Karl.

"Groucho Marx once said that politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies."

On the subject of 1917, today is the 100th anniversary of the death of Britains greatest WW1 flying Ace. His diary is just being published:

https://twitter.com/Leicester_Merc/status/861219711652167682

Pulpstar

Le Pen out to 24.0.

MarkHopkins

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

I don't think many people are going to believe anything that Corbyn & co are coming out with.

AlsoIndigo

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

When your electoral coalition comprises the working classes ('workers') and metropolitan AB voters ('bosses') you have yourself a problem there, especially when you have all but lost interest in the former because you think they are a bunch of thick racists

foxinsoxuk

MarkHopkins said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

I don't think many people are going to believe anything that Corbyn & co are coming out with.

I think Jezza could sell it, but the activists and PLP less so enthusiastically.

Sandpit

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

Yes, that's a good way of putting it. You should copyright the slogan!

Not that the current incarnation of the Labour Party could agree on anything, of course.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/861226642018103297

peter_from_putney

The non-denial by Kasich doesn't mean of course that he will ultimately become the the GOP nominee in 2020, always assuming that, as seems likely from this statement, he decides to stand. No siree - there are probably 20 or 30 potential candidates for whom one could make some sort of credible case, so on that basis 50/1 would probably about right in the normal course of events.
That said, you'd have to consider him a front runner, having previously been there, done that, etc. Furthermore there are a good number, including yours truly, who felt he was an outstanding candidate last year, who should have progressed much further, perhaps even to the extent of winning the Republican nomination, but unfortunately he simply entered the race seriously far, far too late to ever gain sufficient traction and therefore sufficient campaign funds.
I'm on with Corals for one of those new, crumple free, plastic fivers without a hole in the centre.

surbiton

rottenborough said:

More reports from the frontline of Labour's looming catastrophe:

"Phil Catney, a senior politics lecturer at Keele University, which sits in the west of the constituency, says Newcastle [under Lyme] turning Tory would mark a significant moment for the Labour party.

“If Labour loses Newcastle – which it is probable will happen – it’s hard to see how Labour has got any prospect of getting back to power for at least a decade, or even more," he said. "You’re seeing a resurgence of working-class conservatism take hold in places like Newcastle.” "

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.bxerakNa7#.mp05nPQnk

Significant moment ? More significant than when the Canadian Tories ended up with 2 MPs ?

HurstLlama

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

Nice slogan, Doc, what does it actually mean? Specifically what do you see that such a Brexit would entail?

Alanbrooke

HurstLlama said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

Nice slogan, Doc, what does it actually mean? Specifically what do you see that such a Brexit would entail?

I find it quite funny given it was the workers voted to leave the bosses EU

Sandpit

Pulpstar said:

Indications on twitter seem to be that Macron is above 60%.

I make Ladbrokes 10-11 35-40% Le Pen a good bet, it is beating the betfair price.

Do you think I'm right to start feeling a little nervous about Le Pen being under 35%?

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except you are blaming only one side for things not going well, when cyclefree is, I believe, making the point that both sides have been at fault. Indeed, that is the conclusion of the piece. You are saying we've been idiots and the Europeans are responding, when it is simply more complicated than that, since Tusk for one also chided Juncker (implicitly, when talking of the need for discretion, when the EU side were the ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election.

Voters do, by a 2:1 margin:

Theresa May has said that some EU officials and politicians have been deliberately making comments about Brexit negotiations at this time in order "to affect the result of the general election". Do you think this is probably true or probably false?

Probably true - EU officals and politicians
are deliberately trying to influence the general election : 51

Probably false - EU officials and politicians are not: 24

AlsoIndigo

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

Nice slogan, Doc, what does it actually mean? Specifically what do you see that such a Brexit would entail?

I find it quite funny given it was the workers voted to leave the bosses EU

Indeed. A 'Workers BrExit' would argueably include very strict limits on immigration and a strong element of patriotism... The Labour coalition wouldn't last five minutes as all the Guardianista wing decamps to the Lib Dems.... now I can see why Dr Fox likes the idea

Gallowgate

It's a great day to be a Newcastle United fan.

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election.

Voters do, by a 2:1 margin:

Theresa May has said that some EU officials and politicians have been deliberately making comments about Brexit negotiations at this time in order "to affect the result of the general election". Do you think this is probably true or probably false?

Probably true - EU officals and politicians
are deliberately trying to influence the general election : 51

Probably false - EU officials and politicians are not: 24

I don't blame voters for believing the PM. That's not unreasonable.

Pulpstar

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Indications on twitter seem to be that Macron is above 60%.

I make Ladbrokes 10-11 35-40% Le Pen a good bet, it is beating the betfair price.

Do you think I'm right to start feeling a little nervous about Le Pen being under 35%?

It's a side bet for me personally, I'm absolutely lumped onto Macron for about 7.5 to win 2 (Less premium charge and commission, yuck), have £100 @ 10-11 on this at Ladbrokes.

chestnut

CarlottaVance said:

Voters do, by a 2:1 margin:

Theresa May has said that some EU officials and politicians have been deliberately making comments about Brexit negotiations at this time in order "to affect the result of the general election". Do you think this is probably true or probably false?

Probably true - EU officals and politicians
are deliberately trying to influence the general election : 51

Probably false - EU officials and politicians are not: 24

So do 44% of the Remainers who had a view. It's the prevalent view in every area of the UK and across all social classes.

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election.

Voters do, by a 2:1 margin:

Theresa May has said that some EU officials and politicians have been deliberately making comments about Brexit negotiations at this time in order "to affect the result of the general election". Do you think this is probably true or probably false?

Probably true - EU officals and politicians
are deliberately trying to influence the general election : 51

Probably false - EU officials and politicians are not: 24

So thats the 51% thingy.

Pulpstar

Corals still taking bets at 1-16 Macron. With what we know I think that's a good price.

AlsoIndigo

SouthamObserver said:

I don't blame voters for believing the PM. That's not unreasonable.

Most of the current EU situation is from voters believing Prime Ministers. Noteably that they would reduce immigration to 10's of thousands ("no ifs, no buts"), that they would get a good deal from renegotiation, that they would lead a vote for leave if they didnt get a good deal, and they they would stay on and carry out the will of the people whatever the result of the referendum - its quite likely that voters are slightly less credulous these days

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

Corals still taking bets at 1-16 Macron. With what we know I think that's a good price.

I mean at this point in the election we have

1) Opinion polls for round 1, backed up by real results in r1.
2) Outre Mer results which are in line with r2 polls (I made Martinique 76.2 to Macron, it is 77.7 apparently.)
3) Turnout that is 0.3% below r1 at the same point, meaning less differential effects that are possible.
4) Some Belgian polls that are apparently in line with expectations.

This is alot more information than is normally available for an election at this point.

peter_from_putney

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

I am sure it is electioneering from May. She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election. The problem is how far she will be able to pull back politically from the positions she is currently adopting. The anti-European press love this White Cliffs of Dover, we will fight them on the beaches rhetoric. When (if) it is replaced by conciliation and concession, May will face the kind of headlines that she has spent years working hard to avoid. Whether she has the stomach for that remains to be seen.

I seriously disagree, as does Janet Daley who had this to say in today's Sunday Telegraph:

“The attempt to undermine her was so crass and inept, and such a gross betrayal of common courtesy, that it succeeded in uniting the nation behind her ............ So counter-productive was its effect that I seriously wonder whether the Conservatives would have done as well in the local elections if it had not been for that remarkably stupid intervention from Mr Juncker (which he later compounded by dismissing the English language as a fading influence) ............
Virtually on cue, as if they were being manipulated by Brexit tactical masters, the Brussels establishment had revealed its most unappealing trait. In response to Mrs May’s gracious request for a close and friendly relationship with what she hoped, as she put it in the Lancaster House speech, would be a flourishing EU, she got this outpouring of bile.So an already popular national leader was cast as the would-be victim of a gang of bullies and after a pause to recover from the shock, she was seen to stand up to them in the great British tradition. Well done, Brussels.”

SouthamObserver

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

Nice slogan, Doc, what does it actually mean? Specifically what do you see that such a Brexit would entail?

I find it quite funny given it was the workers voted to leave the bosses EU

Could be wrong, but I thought it was the case that most people of working age voted to Remain.

brokenwheel

Turnout 65.30% at 5pm. Down just over 4% on first round.

foxinsoxuk

HurstLlama said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

Nice slogan, Doc, what does it actually mean? Specifically what do you see that such a Brexit would entail?

It would only require Labour dusting off its Eighties manifesto, Corbyn must remember large sections of it.

Immigration control and building the protections of the social chapter into British law.

Pulpstar

brokenwheel said:

Turnout 65.30% at 5pm. Down just over 4% on first round.

Probably ends Macron's hopes of getting 65%+.

Theuniondivvie

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

SouthamObserver

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

I don't blame voters for believing the PM. That's not unreasonable.

Most of the current EU situation is from voters believing Prime Ministers. Noteably that they would reduce immigration to 10's of thousands ("no ifs, no buts"), that they would get a good deal from renegotiation, that they would lead a vote for leave if they didnt get a good deal, and they they would stay on and carry out the will of the people whatever the result of the referendum - its quite likely that voters are slightly less credulous these days

I completely agree. The Tories who led the Remain campaign spent years telling voters that the EU was an out of control behemoth and that immigrants from the EU were depressing wages and swamping public services. They then turned around and said, actually that's not true. No wonder people found it hard to take them seriously.

brokenwheel

Pulpstar said:

brokenwheel said:

Turnout 65.30% at 5pm. Down just over 4% on first round.

Probably ends Macron's hopes of getting 65%+.

But i think broadly in line with the abstention rate in the polls.

SouthamObserver

peter_from_putney said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

I am that remains to be seen.

I seriously disagree, as does Janet Daley who had this to say in today's Sunday Telegraph:

“The attempt to undermine her was so crass and inept, and such a gross betrayal of common courtesy, that it succeeded in uniting the nation behind her ............ So counter-productive was its effect that I seriously wonder whether the Conservatives would have done as well in the local elections if it had not been for that remarkably stupid intervention from Mr Juncker (which he later compounded by dismissing the English language as a fading influence) ............
Virtually on cue, as if they were being manipulated by Brexit tactical masters, the Brussels establishment had revealed its most unappealing trait. In response to Mrs May’s gracious request for a close and friendly relationship with what she hoped, as she put it in the Lancaster House speech, would be a flourishing EU, she got this outpouring of bile.So an already popular national leader was cast as the would-be victim of a gang of bullies and after a pause to recover from the shock, she was seen to stand up to them in the great British tradition. Well done, Brussels.”

Juncker was not being serious about the English language, as anyone who has watched the full clip of what he said would know. What election result do you believe that "the EU" was seeking to secure by leaking the details of Juncker's meeting to a German language newspaper?

Pulpstar

brokenwheel said:

Pulpstar said:

brokenwheel said:

Turnout 65.30% at 5pm. Down just over 4% on first round.

Probably ends Macron's hopes of getting 65%+.

But i think broadly in line with the abstention rate in the polls.

Melenchon voters who said they were going to sit it out are errm... sitting it out !

Malmesbury

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election.

Voters do, by a 2:1 margin:

Theresa May has said that some EU officials and politicians have been deliberately making comments about Brexit negotiations at this time in order "to affect the result of the general election". Do you think this is probably true or probably false?

Probably true - EU officals and politicians
are deliberately trying to influence the general election : 51

Probably false - EU officials and politicians are not: 24

I don't blame voters for believing the PM. That's not unreasonable.

To put it another way - what was the purpose behind the leak?

SouthamObserver

Theuniondivvie said:

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

Farage wouldn't have been in the trenches. He'd have been broadcasting from Berlin.

Alanbrooke

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Another good thread, thanks @KeiranPedley.

Is the problem with Labour's view on the EU not the same as the problem with Labours view on anything right now - that the leadership is utterly ambivalent and the membership and activists are too busy all fighting each other?

A sensible policy might be to respect the vote, but give the government qualified support, i.e. to make sure workers' rights are not regressed. Not helping are a large number of the PLP who seem way more interested in the rights of EU migrants to the UK than the jobs and conditions of their own voters.

The best campaign for Labour would be to campaign for "a worker's Brexit, not a bosses Brexit".

Nice slogan, Doc, what does it actually mean? Specifically what do you see that such a Brexit would entail?

I find it quite funny given it was the workers voted to leave the bosses EU

Could be wrong, but I thought it was the case that most people of working age voted to Remain.

brow beaten wrecks threatened with redundancy by their fatcat bosses then :-)

CarlottaVance

What Voters thought 'Brussels' was up to;

And what outcome do you think European Union officials would like to see in the British general election?
They would probably like to see the Conservatives increase their majority: 6
They would probably like to see the Conservatives win with a small majority: 7
They would probably like to see the Conservatives lose the election : 37
They probably don't mind who we in Britain elect to lead us : 24

SouthamObserver

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election.

Voters do, by a 2:1 margin:

Theresa May has said that some EU officials and politicians have been deliberately making comments about Brexit negotiations at this time in order "to affect the result of the general election". Do you think this is probably true or probably false?

Probably true - EU officals and politicians
are deliberately trying to influence the general election : 51

Probably false - EU officials and politicians are not: 24

I don't blame voters for believing the PM. That's not unreasonable.

To put it another way - what was the purpose behind the leak?

It was leaked in German to a German newspaper, so I imagine the intention was to inform opinion in Germany. If you want to influence events in the UK, the first thing you'd do is leak in English.

Sunil_Prasannan

Pulpstar said:

Jesus I'll be glad when the exit poll arrives !

Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw wot moved back from Haiti?

He became an Exit Pole!

(I'll get me coat...)

murali_s

SouthamObserver said:

Theuniondivvie said:

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

Farage wouldn't have been in the trenches. He'd have been broadcasting from Berlin.

Farage is a nasty right-wing piece of work. Simples.

Pulpstar

Macron 95.7% of the vote

In... Boston

murali_s

rottenborough said:

More reports from the frontline of Labour's looming catastrophe:

"Phil Catney, a senior politics lecturer at Keele University, which sits in the west of the constituency, says Newcastle [under Lyme] turning Tory would mark a significant moment for the Labour party.

“If Labour loses Newcastle – which it is probable will happen – it’s hard to see how Labour has got any prospect of getting back to power for at least a decade, or even more," he said. "You’re seeing a resurgence of working-class conservatism take hold in places like Newcastle.” "

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.bxerakNa7#.mp05nPQnk

Wrong!

All bets are off (with looming Brexit etc.). Labour could well come back to power in 5 years.

nunu

SouthamObserver said:

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election.

Voters do, by a 2:1 margin:

Theresa May has said that some EU officials and politicians have been deliberately making comments about Brexit negotiations at this time in order "to affect the result of the general election". Do you think this is probably true or probably false?

Probably true - EU officals and politicians
are deliberately trying to influence the general election : 51

Probably false - EU officials and politicians are not: 24

I don't blame voters for believing the PM. That's not unreasonable.

To put it another way - what was the purpose behind the leak?

It was leaked in German to a German newspaper, so I imagine the intention was to inform opinion in Germany. If you want to influence events in the UK, the first thing you'd do is leak in English.

LOL. Yeah because the leakers could have absolutely no idea British press/media could pick it up. Could you be anymore naive.

foxinsoxuk

Pulpstar said:

brokenwheel said:

Pulpstar said:

brokenwheel said:

Turnout 65.30% at 5pm. Down just over 4% on first round.

Probably ends Macron's hopes of getting 65%+.

But i think broadly in line with the abstention rate in the polls.

Melenchon voters who said they were going to sit it out are errm... sitting it out !

Not going to Le Pen either then...

I am sitting pretty on this one, Green all round, best outcome LePen 30-35%.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Nunu, wir konnten kein Deutsch sprechen.

Alle wissen das.

[Probably buggered the grammar, but there we are].

foxinsoxuk

Pulpstar said:

Macron 95.7% of the vote

In... Boston

Bit tough on Nuttall, he will lose his deposit!

SouthamObserver

nunu said:

SouthamObserver said:

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I negotiations.

I understand.

She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election.

Voters do, by a 2:1 margin:

Theresa May has said that some EU officials and politicians have been deliberately making comments about Brexit negotiations at this time in order "to affect the result of the general election". Do you think this is probably true or probably false?

Probably true - EU officals and politicians
are deliberately trying to influence the general election : 51

Probably false - EU officials and politicians are not: 24

I don't blame voters for believing the PM. That's not unreasonable.

To put it another way - what was the purpose behind the leak?

It was leaked in German to a German newspaper, so I imagine the intention was to inform opinion in Germany. If you want to influence events in the UK, the first thing you'd do is leak in English.

LOL. Yeah because the leakers could have absolutely no idea British press/media could pick it up. Could you be anymore naive.

Yep - I could believe the EU has been deliberately seeking to affect the outcome of the UK election by leaking stories to German newspapers.

FrancisUrquhart

Theuniondivvie said:

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

I seemed to remember he said Brexit was lost too.....but Le Pen ain't gonna win now or in 2022.

SouthamObserver

murali_s said:

rottenborough said:

More reports from the frontline of Labour's looming catastrophe:

"Phil Catney, a senior politics lecturer at Keele University, which sits in the west of the constituency, says Newcastle [under Lyme] turning Tory would mark a significant moment for the Labour party.

“If Labour loses Newcastle – which it is probable will happen – it’s hard to see how Labour has got any prospect of getting back to power for at least a decade, or even more," he said. "You’re seeing a resurgence of working-class conservatism take hold in places like Newcastle.” "

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.bxerakNa7#.mp05nPQnk

Wrong!

All bets are off (with looming Brexit etc.). Labour could well come back to power in 5 years.

I doubt it - but Mrs May is inevitably going to upset a sizeable portion of the White Cliffs of Dover coalition she is creating. A credible opposition will be able to exploit that. But, then again, if we had a credible opposition we would not be where we are now.

foxinsoxuk

FrancisUrquhart said:

Theuniondivvie said:

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

I seemed to remember he said Brexit was lost too.....but Le Pen ain't gonna win now or in 2022.

No, there are very few second chances in politics nowadays.

Fysics_Teacher

Theuniondivvie said:

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

I'd like to think he'd be on the other side to me. The slight of him and Galloway supporting Leave was what finally tipped me, a naturally Eurosceptic sort, into voting remain. That and the risk to the Union of course.

chrisb

Fysics_Teacher said:

Theuniondivvie said:

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

I'd like to think he'd be on the other side to me. The slight of him and Galloway supporting Leave was what finally tipped me, a naturally Eurosceptic sort, into voting remain. That and the risk to the Union of course.

I've always found it bizarre that people can be swayed to vote a certain way because certain individuals are voting the other way.

FrancisUrquhart

Man Utd bench today...

Romero
Bailly
Pogba
Lingard
Blind
Rashford

That's some 6-a-side team.

HYUFD

Labour would be far better just focusing on support for the single market and leaving the LDs to carry the flag for a full return to the EU.

As for Kasich, Trump trounced him in the 2016 GOP primaries outside Ohio and I see no reason why 2020 would be any different

matt

foxinsoxuk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Theuniondivvie said:

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

I seemed to remember he said Brexit was lost too.....but Le Pen ain't gonna win now or in 2022.

No, there are very few second chances in politics nowadays.

The number of MP candidates who were relieved of their position in 2015 but believe this time it's different suggests otherwise.

logical_song

HYUFD said:

Labour would be far better just focusing on support for the single market and leaving the LDs to carry the flag for a full return to the EU.

As for Kasich, Trump trounced him in the 2016 GOP primaries outside Ohio and I see no reason why 2020 would be any different

Trump will have been President for 4 years, that's reason enough.

CarlottaVance

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is a fair point. However, there are differences. For example, Juncker has no say over the EU's negotiating position and will play little to no role in the Brexit negotiations. To portray him as "the EU" is just plain wrong, or dishonest. Barnier and the national leaders are the key players in all this. May, on the other hand, will ultimately decide the UK's negotiating positions and will lead the negotiations for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election.

Voters do, by a 2:1 margin:

Theresa May has said that some EU officials and politicians have been deliberately making comments about Brexit negotiations at this time in order "to affect the result of the general election". Do you think this is probably true or probably false?

Probably true - EU officals and politicians
are deliberately trying to influence the general election : 51

Probably false - EU officials and politicians are not: 24

I don't blame voters for believing the PM. That's not unreasonable.

To put it another way - what was the purpose behind the leak?

To further Herr Selmayr's post EU German political career by currying favour with Mutti?

Pulpstar

https://twitter.com/Jo_Delguste/status/861249701093535744

Macarons at €62..

Theuniondivvie

chrisb said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Theuniondivvie said:

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

I'd like to think he'd be on the other side to me. The slight of him and Galloway supporting Leave was what finally tipped me, a naturally Eurosceptic sort, into voting remain. That and the risk to the Union of course.

I've always found it bizarre that people can be swayed to vote a certain way because certain individuals are voting the other way.

Both campaigns were dire in the EU referendum. The wanker quotient is a useful factor in these circumstances.

williamglenn

A strong result for the CDU in Schleswig-Holstein and the SPD going backwards. Time to top up on Merkel remaining as Chancellor.

Cyan

French turnout at 5pm, including blank and spoilt votes: 65.3%. In 2012 it was 72.0%. Today it's only 58.8% in Paris.

Final turnout is likely to be around 73%, against 80% in 2012.

In 2012, the proportion of blank or spoiled votes was 6%. This time? Maybe 12%, yielding a positive turnout around 61%?

Le Pen may well beat 40%.

Ishmael_Z

SouthamObserver said:

murali_s said:

rottenborough said:

More reports from the frontline of Labour's looming catastrophe:

"Phil Catney, a senior politics lecturer at Keele University, which sits in the west of the constituency, says Newcastle [under Lyme] turning Tory would mark a significant moment for the Labour party.

“If Labour loses Newcastle – which it is probable will happen – it’s hard to see how Labour has got any prospect of getting back to power for at least a decade, or even more," he said. "You’re seeing a resurgence of working-class conservatism take hold in places like Newcastle.” "

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.bxerakNa7#.mp05nPQnk

Wrong!

All bets are off (with looming Brexit etc.). Labour could well come back to power in 5 years.

I doubt it - but Mrs May is inevitably going to upset a sizeable portion of the White Cliffs of Dover coalition she is creating. A credible opposition will be able to exploit that. But, then again, if we had a credible opposition we would not be where we are now.

There really is no White Cliffs of Dover coalition. The mistake you make over and over again is to assume that you are cleverer than your opponents, and to think that being cleverer than your opponent, and demonstrating the cleverness by witty phrase-making, necessarily implies victory over your opponent. It's what cost you the referendum, and you don't bloody learn.

Charles

SouthamObserver said:

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).

However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.

Correct.e circs.

Except ones who leaked).

So once again we have the seemingly reasonable concluding that it is ok for the EU to act inappropriately, but not for the UK, when the actually reasonable would say perhaps both should act appropriately.

This is for us.

I can easily accept we may be more at fault. However the pretence that they have been entirely reasonable here, or at the least that they have not acting in a way that has been less than helpful, is demonstrably false.

I completely agree. I think there are some very sore souls in Brussels. But mostly these people are entirely irrelevant to the Brexit negotiations.

I hope that's proven out in the end, and also that TMay's position is just electioneering, which they too will understand.

She cannot seriously believe that the EU is seeking to interfere in the UK election.

Voters do, by a 2:1 margin:

Theresa May has said that some EU officials and politicians have been deliberately making comments about Brexit negotiations at this time in order "to affect the result of the general election". Do you think this is probably true or probably false?

Probably true - EU officals and politicians
are deliberately trying to influence the general election : 51

Probably false - EU officials and politicians are not: 24

I don't blame voters for believing the PM. That's not unreasonable.

To put it another way - what was the purpose behind the leak?

It was leaked in German to a German newspaper, so I imagine the intention was to inform opinion in Germany. If you want to influence events in the UK, the first thing you'd do is leak in English.

Not necessarily - reward a paper who he has a relationship with, safe in the knowledge it will be picked up (and exaggerated) by the uk media - but also with a veneer of plausible deniability

chrisb

Theuniondivvie said:

chrisb said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Theuniondivvie said:

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

I'd like to think he'd be on the other side to me. The slight of him and Galloway supporting Leave was what finally tipped me, a naturally Eurosceptic sort, into voting remain. That and the risk to the Union of course.

I've always found it bizarre that people can be swayed to vote a certain way because certain individuals are voting the other way.

Both campaigns were dire in the EU referendum. The wanker quotient is a useful factor in these circumstances.

Perhaps, but for every Galloway, Farage and Putin on one side, there was a Blair, a Gerry Adams and a Goldman Sachs on the other. How does one measure the relative wanker quotient of each side in these circumstances?

Cyan

Ishmael_Z said:

SouthamObserver said:

murali_s said:

rottenborough said:

More reports from the frontline of Labour's looming catastrophe:

"Phil Catney, a senior politics lecturer at Keele University, which sits in the west of the constituency, says Newcastle [under Lyme] turning Tory would mark a significant moment for the Labour party.

“If Labour loses Newcastle – which it is probable will happen – it’s hard to see how Labour has got any prospect of getting back to power for at least a decade, or even more," he said. "You’re seeing a resurgence of working-class conservatism take hold in places like Newcastle.” "

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.bxerakNa7#.mp05nPQnk

Wrong!

All bets are off (with looming Brexit etc.). Labour could well come back to power in 5 years.

I doubt it - but Mrs May is inevitably going to upset a sizeable portion of the White Cliffs of Dover coalition she is creating. A credible opposition will be able to exploit that. But, then again, if we had a credible opposition we would not be where we are now.

There really is no White Cliffs of Dover coalition. The mistake you make over and over again is to assume that you are cleverer than your opponents, and to think that being cleverer than your opponent, and demonstrating the cleverness by witty phrase-making, necessarily implies victory over your opponent. It's what cost you the referendum, and you don't bloody learn.

This is so true. And often the wit isn't much appreciated outside the club either. Too busy at mutual admiration, they tend to forget that things can change, fast. What would you say is the probability of a Tory majority?

HYUFD

At 5pm French time turnout was 65%, lower than 72% in 2012 at that stage or the 75% in 2007 or even the 68% in 2002. It was also 4% below the 69% it was in the first round at that time. In Paris it was below average at 59%
http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Actualites/L-actu-du-Ministere/Election-du-president-de-la-Republique-2017-Second-tour-Taux-de-participation-a-17h

Cyan

brokenwheel said:

Pulpstar said:

brokenwheel said:

Turnout 65.30% at 5pm. Down just over 4% on first round.

Probably ends Macron's hopes of getting 65%+.

But i think broadly in line with the abstention rate in the polls.

Abstentions plus blank and spoiled votes will be much higher than the 27% average "abstention" figure in the polls listed on the Wikipedia page. The figure for people who had a vote but didn't visit a polling station will be about that.

HYUFD

Cyan said:

French turnout at 5pm, including blank and spoilt votes: 65.3%. In 2012 it was 72.0%. Today it's only 58.8% in Paris.

Final turnout is likely to be around 73%, against 80% in 2012.

In 2012, the proportion of blank or spoiled votes was 6%. This time? Maybe 12%, yielding a positive turnout around 61%?

Le Pen may well beat 40%.

First estimates still seem to have it around Macron 63, Le Pen 37

https://www.facebook.com/pier.pizoli58/posts/746070455557399

HYUFD

logical_song said:

HYUFD said:

Labour would be far better just focusing on support for the single market and leaving the LDs to carry the flag for a full return to the EU.

As for Kasich, Trump trounced him in the 2016 GOP primaries outside Ohio and I see no reason why 2020 would be any different

Trump will have been President for 4 years, that's reason enough.

Not for his base who will turn out for him in the primaries again

Richard_Nabavi

Where on earth does this strange idea that Theresa May is in favour of a 'hard' Brexit come from? It seems to be surprisingly widespread. I appreciate that the LibDems and Labour have, in desperation, been trying to push it as an idea, but it's completely and demonstrably wrong. She could have not have been clearer, right from the start, that she wants to negotiate a comprehensive trade deal with the EU27, to come into effect on the day we leave, or at least to be agreed as an end-point by then, with transitional arrangement to tide us over. Just look at any speech she's ever made on the subject, or her Article 50 letter, which is the definitive text on her position.

Whether the EU27 want a hard Brexit, with no trade deal, remains to be seen; their position is entirely opaque. But, if we do end up there, it won't be because the UK wants it.

AlastairMeeks

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/Jo_Delguste/status/861249701093535744

Macarons at €62..

Ladurée 5 ans?

Cyan

HYUFD said:

Cyan said:

French turnout at 5pm, including blank and spoilt votes: 65.3%. In 2012 it was 72.0%. Today it's only 58.8% in Paris.

Final turnout is likely to be around 73%, against 80% in 2012.

In 2012, the proportion of blank or spoiled votes was 6%. This time? Maybe 12%, yielding a positive turnout around 61%?

Le Pen may well beat 40%.

First estimates still seem to have it around Macron 63, Le Pen 37

https://www.facebook.com/pier.pizoli58/posts/746070455557399

That guy is claiming that the Ministry of the Interior is estimating the result (or percentages of votes already cast) before the polls have closed.

Theuniondivvie

chrisb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

chrisb said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Theuniondivvie said:

You wouldn't want Nige beside you in a trench.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/861236742149611525

I'd like to think he'd be on the other side to me. The slight of him and Galloway supporting Leave was what finally tipped me, a naturally Eurosceptic sort, into voting remain. That and the risk to the Union of course.

I've always found it bizarre that people can be swayed to vote a certain way because certain individuals are voting the other way.

Both campaigns were dire in the EU referendum. The wanker quotient is a useful factor in these circumstances.

Perhaps, but for every Galloway, Farage and Putin on one side, there was a Blair, a Gerry Adams and a Goldman Sachs on the other. How does one measure the relative wanker quotient of each side in these circumstances?

I guess you can try to estimate what influence the wankers might have if their preferred result transpires. Putin is Putin & Galloway an irrelevance, but though Farage's gas has been set at a peep recently, one can't say he's not been on a bit of a roll, and the Nigel virus now courses through the veins of the Tory party.
Adams is an irrelevance afaic & Blair not far off it. If a company could be called a wanker I suppose GS might qualify, but they'd be doing their thing in any scenario.

FF43

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

I don't blame voters for believing the PM. That's not unreasonable.

Most of the current EU situation is from voters believing Prime Ministers. Noteably that they would reduce immigration to 10's of thousands ("no ifs, no buts"), that they would get a good deal from renegotiation, that they would lead a vote for leave if they didnt get a good deal, and they they would stay on and carry out the will of the people whatever the result of the referendum - its quite likely that voters are slightly less credulous these days

Apparently they are. They think Theresa May will get a good result by acting tough. Also you need a fair dose of credulity to vote Leave. If nothing else, Remain had the "Better the devil you know" augment.

Alistair

Edinburgh West - Lib Dems @1.5 seems like a price the is incredibly generous.

For it not to come in it would have to man there is no correlation between Holyrood & Council results and the General Election and at that point how could you make ay constituency bet in confidence.

HYUFD

Cyan said:

HYUFD said:

Cyan said:

French turnout at 5pm, including blank and spoilt votes: 65.3%. In 2012 it was 72.0%. Today it's only 58.8% in Paris.

Final turnout is likely to be around 73%, against 80% in 2012.

In 2012, the proportion of blank or spoiled votes was 6%. This time? Maybe 12%, yielding a positive turnout around 61%?

Le Pen may well beat 40%.

First estimates still seem to have it around Macron 63, Le Pen 37

https://www.facebook.com/pier.pizoli58/posts/746070455557399

That guy is claiming that the Ministry of the Interior is estimating the result (or percentages of votes already cast) before the polls have closed.

It is all very interesting but whether Le Pen gets 37% or 41% does not really make a vast amount of difference, we know roughly what the result is going to be regardless of what the turnout is, though if it is lower it may be closer to the latter than the former

AlsoIndigo

murali_s said:

rottenborough said:

More reports from the frontline of Labour's looming catastrophe:

"Phil Catney, a senior politics lecturer at Keele University, which sits in the west of the constituency, says Newcastle [under Lyme] turning Tory would mark a significant moment for the Labour party.

“If Labour loses Newcastle – which it is probable will happen – it’s hard to see how Labour has got any prospect of getting back to power for at least a decade, or even more," he said. "You’re seeing a resurgence of working-class conservatism take hold in places like Newcastle.” "

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.bxerakNa7#.mp05nPQnk

Wrong!

All bets are off (with looming Brexit etc.). Labour could well come back to power in 5 years.

Might be a slightly tougher sell since the majority of Labour MPs voted for it at the beginning of February.

williamglenn

Richard_Nabavi said:

Where on earth does this strange idea that Theresa May is in favour of a 'hard' Brexit come from? It seems to be surprisingly widespread. I appreciate that the LibDems and Labour have, in desperation, been trying to push it as an idea, but it's completely and demonstrably wrong. She could have not have been clearer, right from the start, that she wants to negotiate a comprehensive trade deal with the EU27, to come into effect on the day we leave, or at least to be agreed as an end-point by then, with transitional arrangement to tide us over. Just look at any speech she's ever made on the subject, or her Article 50 letter, which is the definitive text on her position.

Whether the EU27 want a hard Brexit, with no trade deal, remains to be seen; their position is entirely opaque. But, if we do end up there, it won't be because the UK wants it.

Yes, it's quite transparent that her posturing is a bluff. Why anyone thinks it impresses the EU27 as much as it impresses ex-UKIP voters is a mystery.

The EU's position is also clear: an orderly Brexit, followed by a transition in the single market during which a long term trade deal can be discussed.

brokenwheel

HYUFD said:

Cyan said:

HYUFD said:

Cyan said:

French turnout at 5pm, including blank and spoilt votes: 65.3%. In 2012 it was 72.0%. Today it's only 58.8% in Paris.

Final turnout is likely to be around 73%, against 80% in 2012.

In 2012, the proportion of blank or spoiled votes was 6%. This time? Maybe 12%, yielding a positive turnout around 61%?

Le Pen may well beat 40%.

First estimates still seem to have it around Macron 63, Le Pen 37

https://www.facebook.com/pier.pizoli58/posts/746070455557399

That guy is claiming that the Ministry of the Interior is estimating the result (or percentages of votes already cast) before the polls have closed.

It is all very interesting but whether Le Pen gets 37% or 41% does not really make a vast amount of difference, we know roughly what the result is going to be regardless of what the turnout is, though if it is lower it may be closer to the latter than the former

Does for people betting on voteshare.

SouthamObserver

Ishmael_Z said:

SouthamObserver said:

murali_s said:

rottenborough said:

More reports from the frontline of Labour's looming catastrophe:

"Phil Catney, a senior politics lecturer at Keele University, which sits in the west of the constituency, says Newcastle [under Lyme] turning Tory would mark a significant moment for the Labour party.

“If Labour loses Newcastle – which it is probable will happen – it’s hard to see how Labour has got any prospect of getting back to power for at least a decade, or even more," he said. "You’re seeing a resurgence of working-class conservatism take hold in places like Newcastle.” "

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.bxerakNa7#.mp05nPQnk

Wrong!

All bets are off (with looming Brexit etc.). Labour could well come back to power in 5 years.

I doubt it - but Mrs May is inevitably going to upset a sizeable portion of the White Cliffs of Dover coalition she is creating. A credible opposition will be able to exploit that. But, then again, if we had a credible opposition we would not be where we are now.

There really is no White Cliffs of Dover coalition. The mistake you make over and over again is to assume that you are cleverer than your opponents, and to think that being cleverer than your opponent, and demonstrating the cleverness by witty phrase-making, necessarily implies victory over your opponent. It's what cost you the referendum, and you don't bloody learn.

The mistake you make over and over again is that you think I want to refight the referendum. I don't. I have no interest in that whatsoever. We are leaving the EU and that is that. However, it is undeniably the case that Mrs May is seeking to create a patriotic groundswell as we move into the deal-making phase; this has been consistently reinforced by her supporters in the right wing, anti-European press. May is going to stand up for Britain, beat the saboteurs, tell the Eurocrats what for and come back with a deal that will help to make a fairer society that works for all, while cutting immigration to the tens of thousands and ending the ECJ's jurisdiction. A red, white and blue Brexit, if you like, rather than a White Cliffs of Dover one. I don't think she can do that, though. I think a lot of people are going to be left disappointed. Either we do a deal that will involve the UK making significant concessions; or we don't do a deal and inflict significant harm on ourselves.