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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead moves from 5pc to 11pc with Populus online
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead moves from 5pc to 11pc with Populus online
Above in the chart are the figures for today’s Populus online poll which show a big change on Monday’s survey. As can be seen the Tories are down 5 and UKIP up 4.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought you identified as a libertarian?
I'm confused how you can reconcile that with your comments on racial profiling FPT.
I'm genuinely interested.
I don't really have an issue with profiling per se. At airports, for example, it is absurd if families of holiday makers are stopped and searched as frequently as single young men of asian origin and muslim apparal. It is not simplistic to suggest that the latter are a far more obvious risk group. The same might apply to single travellers from Jamaica in respect of drug mules. This seems common sense to me and a good use of resources.
What I find concerning about this procedure is that it is identifying groups of our society in a way that is frankly racist. Whilst the asian or black community may well have more illegal immigrants and failed asylum seekers amongst it proportionally than the white population this is insufficiently so to justify this form of profiling. Secondly there is a difference of degree between a terrorist threat on a plane and the rather remote possibility that someone stopped at random is an illegal immigrant in terms of the potential harm making it harder in this case to justify such acts. The vast majority of those communities have as much right to live here and walk the streets unmolested as the rest of us.
As I suggested yesterday I think resources are better focussed where other issues arise. People found working in unregistered factories or off the books of legal businesses avoiding tax and NI would be obvious examples where investigations into their status generally could and should be followed up. Those arrested for another offence would be another example.
This is really difficult territory and I can fully understand your anger. I think this is wrong but because of the way it is being done rather than in principle. One of the first things the Coaltion did was to abolish the Indentity card legislation proposed by the last authoritarian government. They need to reflect why they did that.
UKIP benefit
Fair piont, but why? voters think Farage would be politer in his pursuit of illegals?
If the stats show a certain trend - follow them before other options are explored - the 80/20 rule in action.
Libertarians generally prefer to think we are masters of our destiny and don't require herding by HMG to know what's good for us. And if we get it wrong - well its our fault.
They operate within a 95% threshold so theoretically one in 20 polls should be an outlier.
A perfectly good contribution to the debate. I am glad you are not supporting this just because your side is doing this.
Also, Richard Nabavi's silence is deafening !
When I need you to be my ventriloquist dummy - I'll let you know.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/90056/#Comment_90056
And Farage's solution for the illegal immigrant question is........????
Cammie had finally seemed to stop the swivel-eyed loons banging on about Europe and immigration after May and reaped the reward. So to now start banging on about immigration again as the polls were getting narrower is an absurdly risky and pointless thing to do.
He has strong links into the Balls/Brownite camp and Unite.
hat tip Guido
Got a brown face? You're a potential lawbreaker. Carry ID. White people don't need to. Get over it. We need votes.
Again, few others on here can explain why the Tories dropped mandatory ID cards and other authoritarian measures that Labour tried to introduce, but are now following the exact same "nothing to hide, nothing to fear" lines. It's not just this, but it is the porn filter as well that suffers from this new found illiberal streak.
Double plus bad.
Amongst the Asian small business households, the Tories share should be 60-70 % [ equivalent to the British white share ]. But it would not surprise me that even within this sub-sector, Labour probably gets 45-50% of their votes. Not the 65-70% they otherwise get amongst Asians but still substantially higher than they otherwise would.
There are also many middle-of-the-road British whites who are repelled by these tactics. The Tories have taken on a high risk strategy !
The volatility (and softness) seems to exist along the Tory-UKIP axis.
Maybe it rained and people are cross again.
Friends of mine involved in the asylum/immigration field have been suggesting that there has in fact been a reduction in the number of cases, certainly cases coming before the courts, in the last year. The fact is the problem is almost insuperable. We would need to spend hundreds of millions to remove the hundreds of thousands that are here illegally. It is not going to happen. But we need to persuade illegals that it might. It is a problem.
The nothing to hide, nothing to fear line is completely incompatible with a free country. If this is what the tories will be like under Mrs May she will not have my support.
On monday we had the 111 service debacle and Tuesday we had lord idiot howell statement on fracking.
Not saying that Labour have been particularly welcoming to ethnic minorties (e.g. the illegal war in Iraq) but they are by far the leader of the pack.
Anyway, expect Tory support amongst ethnic minority voters at the next GE to be in the woeful 10-15% range as usual.
That said . obviosuly a country as a whole must be practical about the levels of support it can offer to a certian amount of population . Britian seems fairly streched in terms of services at the moment so I can see a need to curb immigration full stop. An irony of UNITE challenging the van mesages is that immigration labour damages most the low paid ,fairly unskilled workers in terms of lowering wages. Who needs to pay more than the minimum wage now for basic labour?
Sympathies to MaxPB for his experience, and I'd encourage him to ask his MP to raise it and ask Mrs May to think again. This kind of thing happens in inverse proportion to the probability that the victims will make a fuss. I once met a teenager who had been sitting on a public bench on a main road, talking to a friend, when the police moved them on "because it's making the householder over there nervous to see you sitting there". He wasn't even especially upset, and said it's simply how teenagers get treated, but he knew that if they'd been 50 the policeman wouldn't have dreamed of complaining. I asked why he didn't tell the policeman to get lost since the bench was there for the public. He said teenagers don't find it wise to do that and he felt discretion was the better part...
And yes, like Surbiton I know some very wealthy Asian-born businesspeople who I'm astonished to find supportive - some of them say openly that they think Labour's tax policies are dreadful but we seem to be less consistently suspicious of them as individuals and in the end that matters more to them.
When PB posters are going into high moral posturing overdrive, its never a good idea to interrupt them with practicalities.
As with so many issues that face us currently, people are very clear on what should NOT be happening.
Solutions to the problem however, only ever amount to a bunch of vacuous generalisations
Be it labour, conservative or coalition, pity the poor government
Now you agreeing with me it could be down to other factors like 111 service or lord howell,you posted the facts,thanks tim.
I'm curious as to why you think it's ok to do it for brown and black people.
Dear MP....
''When I said I wanted the government to search for, arrest and deport illegal immigrants, I didn;t expect you to search for, arrest and deport illegal immigrants.
Oh dear me no.
Searching for, arresting and deporting illegal immigrants strikes me as fundamentally un british.
As an alternative, I suggest the government searches for, arrests and deports illegal immigrants''
Yours,
A Voter
https://twitter.com/PSbook/status/363271065536962562/photo/1
I think they have polling evidence that transfers to UKIP hurts them disproportionately in marginals; certainly in the east of the country. They are probably aware that they will also lose some centrist votes as a result. But they must have done their sums.
Why is Boris so quiet ? Normally, you can't keep his mouth shut !
As I remember, Boris is in favour of an amnesty.
From what I've read this morning, that sounds like the only viable solution.
And anyway the vast majority of them are solid Labour supporters so there won't be any movement.
But they wouldn't do that. There aren't enough people ready to that kind of work and keep prices / fares / rates down.
those living rough or in hostels;
back street, unregistered businesses;
beggers;
children of school age in the street;
the black economy generally;
maternity ward patients without a GP;
prisons;
brothels;
untaxed/uninsured car owners.
Let's face it, if you want to find more illegal immigrants and asylum seekers than our systems can possibly cope with it is not hard. These people are excluded from mainstream society. They are not able, in large part, to work legally. They are not registered for tax and they have to live outwith the law. This is not a moral judgment. I agree with most of what state_go_away states downthread. They need money and they need somewhere to live. It really isn't that hard to find large numbers.
That is why the motivation for these campaigns is so problematic. The establishment has always turned a blind eye and is still doing so. To claim otherwise is a lie.
Monday and Tuesday the tories got hammered in the media on 101 service and tuesday lord howell,look at the evidence our tim gave downthread after idiot lord howell opened his gob,tory votes in the north fall.
"As DavidL, Jack W and others on here have shown there will be plenty of Tories who are very uncomfortable/disgusted at this. They need to speak out. It's not being disloyal to their party, it's being loyal to its stated principles. What is happening should not happen in the UK, and would not be happening but for a decision to target a certain kind of voter."
.......................................................................
Apart from libelling me as being one of "plenty of Tories" your comment is broadly correct.
It's absolutely clear from all eye witness reports that these recent SUS operations are racially profiled. At what level is a different matter. Nevertheless they are to be deprecated in the strongest possible terms as being utterly disgusting, of the most questionable legality, completely outwith British traditions, of dubious operational effectiveness and leading to mistrust among communities of the police and other arms of the state. do the later groups have goodwill to waste ?
These necessary missions should be intelligence led and highly focussed and not a broad sweep, catch all (but only all black) operations.
a) we talk about things no one else talks about (difficult decisions: tick)
b) we take action on things no one else takes action on (effective government: tick)
plus
c) we are positioning ourselves as a solidly rightwing party and with apologies to our many supporters of every ethnicity and colour, please understand that we have to paint this in primary colours for the masses
d) by the time of the election, when be assured there will be no debate about immigration, the vague recollection will be that the Tories were firm on illegals
Go Lynton.
As a PB proletarian . always banging on about equality for everyone I notice you leapt at the opportunity to leave the BA cattle wagon to join the elite on your recent travels, what price principles .. cheap apparently..a bigger seat and some better nosh. Hypocritical
Agree completely SO.
Labour's illiberal policies on civil liberties, including ID cards, repelled me and still do. But asking people with darker skin randomly in the street "Prove that you're entitled to be here" is wrong and ineffective. Nor do I want misuse of Labour's draconian anti-terror laws.
Dealing with illegal immigrants involves hard work, based on intelligence, targeting the people trafficking gangs, the industries most associated with the employment of illegals etc, use of information from NI numbers, infra red cameras showing people living in sheds and proper border controls in the first place not this sort of gesture politics. (The vans are the same sort of gesture politics.)
By all means deal with illegal immigration, but do it through effective measures not silly stunts, which are likely to cause offence to innocent people (of any race) and backfire.
"I'm lost here - what is your beef?
Most Caucasians here in the UK are mostly from Eastern EU and therefore legally here. Some will be here legally from Oz or NZ or the USA.
The vast majority of those who are Caucasian will therefore be here legally or be a minority of overstayers - and they should be deported.
So that leaves everyone from sunnier countries be they African or Asian who have no EU right to be here unless they happen to be French and Morrocan descent for example. It's not hard to deduce that most illegal immigrants aren't Caucasian and therefore have deeper tans as natural intended because that's where they hail from."
Before George Osborne's father in law opened his stupid Southern Etonian ignorant mouth
Fri/Sun
North of England
Con 33
UKIP 6
After George Osborne's father in law opened his stupid Southern Etonian ignorant mouth
Wed/Thur
North of England
Con 22
UKIP 16
I do not recall such checks in the past, I amy have been abroad at the time. In any case, they were withdrawn , presumably because many in the Labour party couldn't stomach it. Probably some ultra Blairite initiative like that appallng candidate in Saddleworth.
The tories for now should be sticking to the economy,the economy is on the up and labour are lost on this.
Southam to be honest I've never really either expected or particularly wanted any government to do anything much about illegal immigrants who are already here.
I don't think random sweeps, vans, raiding cleaners or anything else will succeed for that matter.
What annoys me is people who do want something done about this who are complaining about the methods.
Its like a person who wants an operation complaining the surgeon is using ether and lancets, and leaving a scar.
Fwiw, I've only ever been stopped once for any kind of check, excluding football matches and the like where everyone is. That was when I was coming back into the UK from France as a foot passenger by ferry, travelling alone having been interrailing. I can understand that (the method I chose was not the cheapest, fastest nor most convenient on the face of it), and that may have looked like an evasive behaviour, given that unlike Eurostar or air, it was a walk-on mode of transport. The actual reason I chose the ferry was because the crossing coincided more or less with the England v Denmark 2002 World Cup match, in the hope - false as it turned out - that it might be screened).
The authorities should be dealing with illegal immigrants. What they should not be doing is working on the basis that anyone with a dusky skin colour should have to prove they're not before being allowed on their lawful business.
It doesn't even have to be true - even if you would vote Tory regardless, you may as well use your influence as a concerned supporter. It's the sort of communication that gets politicians' attention, especially if they're doing something to win votes.
Glad to see, a lot of sensible Tories are coming out against this. Last night and this morning, it was the other crowd. What's wrong with it brigade !
However, I think there is some jumping to conclusions here about the politics. In fact, Theresa May has been trying to ensure that the police don't abuse their powers, for which she has been widely praised:
"We've all been told stories by constituents and members of the public about what it's like to be a young, law-abiding black man who has been stopped and searched by the police on more than one occasion," the home secretary told MPs.
"If anybody thinks that it's sustainable to allow that to continue, with all its consequences for public confidence in the police,they need to think again," she said, adding that everybody in policing had a duty to ensure that nobody was ever stopped on the basis of their skin colour.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/theresa-mays-stop-and-search-review-hits-target/
http://www.theguardian.com/law/2013/jul/02/stop-search-theresa-may-police-powers
David, I often agree with your posts, in this case you want the government to make an omelette, just so long as they don;t break any eggs.
I reckon trawls are as successful as anything else would be, but the fact is they are possibly illegal and by what we've heard today pretty distasteful.
The fact is there probably isn't any way of getting rid of illegals successfully without offending your delicate sensibilities in the process.
So why not just stop urging the government to try??
Care to point out where I said I approved of the Stop and ID yourself operation that is apparently being carried out.. bit difficult for you as I never have.
.@Nigel_Farage says immigration spot checks at railway stations are “not the British way of doing things". @SkyNews
http://order-order.com/2013/08/02/vote-unite-in-euro-elections/
All sounds very familiar...
Max, it's not canny its cowardly. What IS the British way?
Farage and anybody else who sets a high priority on getting rid of illegals are simply too ch8ckensh*t to tell the voters there isn't a clean and nice way of doing this and therefore its basically impossible.
What if I told you, Surby baby, that I have actually been stopped by the Feds four times over the last five years? However, I was only asked to let them search my bag once - ah, this was a "random" spot check outside a tube station way back in 2008. The last time was at the beginning of 2012, way out in the sticks at Oxford station - off-duty BTP Fed saw me taking pix down the line at Didcot station and asked me why. Fortunately he believed me when I told him it was for a friend's rail website!:
http://www.britishrailwaystations.co.uk/about.html