Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Day 2 of Osbo’s new job and he’s not being helpful to the woma

1235»

Comments

  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Hmm, interesting from Robert Peston:

    Perhaps the most important thing for you to know is that ministers believe Germany and Merkel are behind what they see as sabotage by Juncker and Selmayr.

    https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1839163076408429
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    So what's the Remoaner position, this minute? She's mad? She's David Icke? She's completely mad? She's wrong but it's cynical electioneering? She's wrong but it's tactics? She's right but it's the wrong tactic? What?

    Posted upthread

    She is either delusional (which would be bad thing) or the single most cynical resident on No10 in my lifetime (which would be a bad thing)

    Torching any chance of a good deal on Brexit to get a few extra seats in an election she is going to win by a country mile.

    It's not a sane act.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,113
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RemIsBuzzin: @PCollinsTimes @michaelgove No, she might well be right. It just makes her seems weak/paranoid to care so much. She should have been openly dismissive of Juncker.

    So what's the Remoaner position, this minute? She's mad? She's David Icke? She's completely mad? She's wrong but it's cynical electioneering? She's wrong but it's tactics? She's right but it's the wrong tactic? What?
    She's an ego-driven narcissist who has chosen the most high-risk approach to Brexit because she wants to outdo Cameron and go down in history.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    All Osborne is doing is burning his bridges with the Tory Party

    With a few millions finding its way into his bank account, he is really worried !
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @YvetteCooperMP: A weak & foolish thing for a Prime Minister to do. Certainly not stable. And so cynical, transparent & short termist, it's really not strong twitter.com/bbcnews/status…
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RemIsBuzzin: @PCollinsTimes @michaelgove No, she might well be right. It just makes her seems weak/paranoid to care so much. She should have been openly dismissive of Juncker.

    So what's the Remoaner position, this minute? She's mad? She's David Icke? She's completely mad? She's wrong but it's cynical electioneering? She's wrong but it's tactics? She's right but it's the wrong tactic? What?
    She is a second class Farage in drag but he believed it she does not.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,542

    John Woodcock reselected by his constituency party.

    bye bye.....
    I think he'll survive.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Peston:
    Perhaps the most important thing for you to know is that ministers believe Germany and Merkel are behind what they see as sabotage by Juncker and Selmayr.

    Which brings with it the possibility therefore that confrontation with Brussels becomes a stand off with Europe’s most powerful economy.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/03/general-election-2017-official-campaign-begins-politics-live
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    John Woodcock reselected by his constituency party.

    Barrow & Furness LAB majority: 795 or 1.8%. - Looks like he has a battle on his hands.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    tyson said:

    tyson said:


    Richard

    As you know our views of Brexit are very different but I do trust you will believe me when I state that on this matter I would be absolutely delighted to discover one day that you are right and I am completely wrong.

    I don't think our views on Brexit are very different; I still think it was a big mistake to vote to leave, because the risks are very significant and no thought had been put by the Leave side into what exactly they were proposing.

    However, the decision was taken, and it is effectively irreversible, if not legally then certainly political. So the priority now is to get the best deal possible. I think Theresa May is doing pretty much all she can do to optimise the chances of a reasonable deal, and her hand will certainly be strengthened by the election, but that doesn't guarantee success. If our EU friends don't want to do a deal, then they (and we) won't get one, which will damage both sides considerably. Their opening position of 'pay us zillions for nothing in return, and then maybe we'll condescend to discuss a deal some time' doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they are serious, or understand the risks to themselves.
    I seem to have misrepresented you, Richard. Please accept my apologies. As you may know I've been absent for quit a bit and unable to keep up as much as I once did.

    And in fact on the evidence of your post I find we are very close indeed. Not only do I hope Brexit will be a success, I really don't see any purpose in trying to reverse it even if that were possible, which I am sure it is not.

    I'm less optimistic than you about the 'negotiations' though. These seem to me to be about as even-handed as those described by Al Pacino to Diane Keaton in The Godfather. But I hope I am as wrong about that as I am about the outcome of Brexit generally.
    Peter

    I am delighted to see you on the site. I hope you are well....I still remember the pbCOM betting syndicate you put together with great fondness.....
    Thanks Tyson. U still in Italy?
    No....because of Brexit we had to move back because my wife didn't take residency before. We are now in Norwich.....it is blinking, bloody freezing today.....grey, miserable. Toscana seems a million miles away.....
    Pah - Brexit! A useful excuse - admit it man, you just couldn't manage that run up the hill to Fiesole any longer!
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    May's overdoing the 'interfering' angle, but they leaked a damaging story for their own gain, turn about is fair play, as they say, so she is using it. The reports of increased demands and how delusional May is can only have been to damage her and push us to a hardest possible exit, and she's making use of that. I don't like it, but it is what it is, people can stop reaching for the smelling salts here, same as with the still a problem but hardly 'worst scandal in British history' election overspend stuff.

    I agree - but if May has over-reacted we can judge it by what should now be a very welcome silence from the EU Commission as they demonstrate they are the bigger person in this spat.
    Trouble is there are so many factions and institutions across the EU that someone will always respond in a way that the UK press will be delighted to report.

    The actual negotiating team may want to de-escalate but the sheer number on numpties in EU-land means someone will always bite.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Scott_P said:

    It's interesting that those who are cheering Tezza for her belligerent stance, are also willing to praise her for chickening out of a live TV debate...

    You will gain credibility when you criticize the idiot officials who leaked details of a private dinner. Until then you have none.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jessicaelgot: Corbyn: "The PM wants to wrap the Conservative party in the Union Jack & distract attention from her government’s economic failure."


    He's right, and it's working. At a cost to our future prosperity and happiness.
  • Options
    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I remember Mr Junker calling for troops to be sent to Greece to enforce Brussels' rule. It was one of the reasons against us joining an European army, that we would be dragged into a 'supporting the official government' role. Perhaps Mr Junker does think he can interfere in our election.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Hmm, interesting from Robert Peston:

    Perhaps the most important thing for you to know is that ministers believe Germany and Merkel are behind what they see as sabotage by Juncker and Selmayr.

    https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1839163076408429

    If this were to be true, then it shows how wrong the UK government was in their assessment of Merkel / Germany. Apparently, not to hurt their exports to the UK, they would be soft on the UK.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Bingo !

    @MrHarryCole: Selmayr: "Brexit cannot be a success as it is a sad and sorry event. But it can be managed in a professional and pragmatic way."
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:

    It's interesting that those who are cheering Tezza for her belligerent stance, are also willing to praise her for chickening out of a live TV debate...

    You will gain credibility when you criticize the idiot officials who leaked details of a private dinner. Until then you have none.
    Scott was sitting on the fence during the EU referendum if you believe that.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,762
    SeanT said:

    Selmayr saying "a lot of havoc has been caused by this dinner"

    Something he ate ?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Scott was sitting on the fence during the EU referendum if you believe that.

    That's not true, but then you know that
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,962

    John Woodcock reselected by his constituency party.

    bye bye.....
    I think he'll survive.
    The odds look about right to me there. Personal votes simply aren't that strong.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
    Selmayr: "Brexit cannot be a success as it is a sad and sorry event. But it can be managed in a professional and pragmatic way."
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Nigelb said:

    SeanT said:

    Selmayr saying "a lot of havoc has been caused by this dinner"

    Something he ate ?
    The leaks were under cooked..
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,542
    Pulpstar said:

    John Woodcock reselected by his constituency party.

    bye bye.....
    I think he'll survive.
    The odds look about right to me there. Personal votes simply aren't that strong.
    Maybe.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
    Selmayr: "Brexit cannot be a success as it is a sad and sorry event. But it can be managed in a professional and pragmatic way."


    Great. Well the EU can cut their stupid demand for payments, and offer a reasonable trade deal then.

  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    surbiton said:

    If this were to be true, then it shows how wrong the UK government was in their assessment of Merkel / Germany. Apparently, not to hurt their exports to the UK, they would be soft on the UK.

    The Cameron government made that mistake, but I don't think this one is repeating it.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
    Selmayr: "Brexit cannot be a success as it is a sad and sorry event. But it can be managed in a professional and pragmatic way."

    Best lock Junker up in the interim then.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,082
    I'm (was) a European federalist and yet even I think 'Remoaners' need to take a long look at themselves. We're leaving, we should expect to get a good deal. The EU are our allies. All the 'Brexit cant be a success' talk is doing is causing division. We can be out of the club and yet still an ally of the EU.

    Good on T May. They can't continue to disrespect us.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:

    It's interesting that those who are cheering Tezza for her belligerent stance, are also willing to praise her for chickening out of a live TV debate...

    You will gain credibility when you criticize the idiot officials who leaked details of a private dinner. Until then you have none.
    Nah

    Scott has no credibility at all. Never has had, never will have.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mortimer said:

    So the EU have unilaterally decided:

    - that the UK will have to bear costs of EU agencies relocating out of UK
    - that the UK will have to settle the accounts for commitments
    - BUT that the UK will have no right to any EU assets

    They're living in cloud bloody cuckoo land, aren't they....

    No - they are trying to set the rules of negotiation how they want them. At the moment, as I mentioned earlier, we are defining the rules of the game 'Brexit', not playing them.

    The UK is not Greece.
    Yet.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Senior EU source tells @BBCkatyaadler May's claim is 'pure fantasy'

    That'll help the negotiations, if they think our team are away with the fairies

    Senior EU source: Yes, it's true, we're trying to undermine Theresa May and we have spies in every house on Downing Street

    They're hardly going to admit it, are they?

    She wants them to back off, and quit the leaking and bullying. So she's swung a punch. Fair enough.
    Fantasy, another galaxy, deluded. What next?
    Certifiable. Except the EU don't need to say it. Our fifth columnists are doing it for them.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Strong and Unstable is the message
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2017
    A wonderfully incoherent response from Jeremy Corbyn, where, in an attempt to lambast Theresa May, he somehow manages to argue that she's right that "there are those in Brussels who don’t want a deal."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/03/general-election-2017-official-campaign-begins-politics-live

    17:20
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Scott has no credibility at all. Never has had, never will have.

    Thanks for the endorsement
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    SeanT said:

    Senior EU source: Yes, it's true, we're trying to undermine Theresa May and we have spies in every house on Downing Street

    They're hardly going to admit it, are they?

    She wants them to back off, and quit the leaking and bullying. So she's swung a punch. Fair enough.

    TBH it's a no-lose move from her point of view. It will help keep her poll ratings up, and of course will have no deleterious effect on the negotiations, any more than their comments about the UK 'being on another galaxy' and 'Brexit cannot be a success' will be remembered by our side if and when the EU27 start actually negotiating. We are negotiating with grown-up politicians, or at least we hope so, not no-marks who harbour irrational grudges

    What is clear, and a surprise to me, is that she's proving a more handbag-swinging PM than anyone expected.
    Yes. And that is good news for UK plc.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969

    HYUFD said:

    All Osborne is doing is burning his bridges with the Tory Party

    Looking at it another way: the government desperately needs opposition. Labour aren't providing one, and the Lib Dems appear adrift. If the opposition has to be provided by ex-senior Tories, so be it.
    He is not opposition. He is one long Heathite sulk. The only difference is he has chosen to do it from behind a newspaper rather than from the back benches. And he is not providing real opposition, just sniping over bits he takes as a personal affront.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
    Selmayr: "Brexit cannot be a success as it is a sad and sorry event. But it can be managed in a professional and pragmatic way."

    He's right.

    They lose a big economy, a big contributor and they have no streamlined flexibility to adapt to the new world.

    Brexit is a failure of the EU.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Gallowgate, interesting to hear your thoughts (as a federalist).

    I am definitely not one of those. At the moment, a bit on the fence about whether May was wise to say what she did. However, I do think there's a lack of critical thinking from some in the media, when the EU leaks a spun version of events, lets rumours fly of their Danegeld demand rising from 60 to 100bn, and comes out with things like "Brexit cannot be a success".

    Hmm.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,962
    edited May 2017
    DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    You can get 3/1 from Coral for UKIP to win at least one seat, if the EU keep up their crazy rhetoric, that could become value.
    As well as Clacton and Thurrock there are places further north where UKIP finished second in 2015 and where a swing from Labour towards Con and Lib/Dem might allow a strong UKIP candidate to nip through the middle.
    The council elections tomorrow could provide clues.

    Clue: UKIP are going to get hammered. And not in the sense of Farage down the pub....
    Dunno, their percentage in 2015 was 12.9% the other day there was a poll in the Mail on Sunday showing 11% support, other polls have been lower but if the absurd EU rhetoric continues double figures could return to all polls.
    The 12.9% was spread around the whole country and UKIP had a candidate in every seat in England and Wales, most of Scotland and some in Northern Ireland, this time there will be around 400 candidates with some no hope areas excluded and Brexiteers like Kate Hoey, Boris Johnson and others given a free ride.
    As the Conservatives have had a lacklustre campaign so far, there is a possibility of UKIP winning a seat, the local elections could provide some information as to where.
    This is a betting forum and I'm just saying that 3/1 could be good value and won't stick around if polls do shift.
    I doubt they'll get near 11% as they aren't running in lots of seats, but 3/1 to win a seat is good value IMO. I don't think they should be that big to win Thurrock, and when you consider they are 13/2 in Hartlepool, 6/1 Heywood and Middleton, 7/2 Thurrock, and 9/1 Boston, then 3/1 seems alright
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345
    chestnut said:

    Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
    Selmayr: "Brexit cannot be a success as it is a sad and sorry event. But it can be managed in a professional and pragmatic way."

    He's right.

    They lose a big economy, a big contributor and they have no streamlined flexibility to adapt to the new world.

    Brexit is a failure of the EU.
    And leaking confidential meetings is managing in a professional and pragmatic way.

    Theresa May may just have made leaking details of meetings that bit more difficult
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,962

    A wonderfully incoherent response from Jeremy Corbyn, where, in an attempt to lambast Theresa May, he somehow manages to argue that she's right that "there are those in Brussels who don’t want a deal."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/03/general-election-2017-official-campaign-begins-politics-live

    17:20

    Would anyone rather have Corbyn conducting these negotiations here. I'm struggling to imagine ANYONE on this entire forum from Southam to Tyndall to William Glenn to Scott P would admit to doing so.

    At the low end some here will state that it is a wash between the two, but I can't believe anyone HONESTLY thinks having Corbyn in there playing our hand would be a good thing. Maybe John McDonnell, possibly Diane Abbott - that'll be about it.

    I'd be interested to note if anyone does believe of a forced choice of May/Corbyn that Corbyn would be superior, and the reasoning behind it.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    SeanT said:

    A wonderfully incoherent response from Jeremy Corbyn, where, in an attempt to lambast Theresa May, he somehow manages to argue that she's right that "there are those in Brussels who don’t want a deal."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/03/general-election-2017-official-campaign-begins-politics-live

    17:20

    He's also accused the EVIL Tory Party of "wrapping themselves in the Union Jack". Of course to him that's a bad thing, he hates the Union Jack, it's the butcher's apron, but to many other people....
    "wrapping themselves in the Union Jack" is distasteful. Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel, which is of course a comment on scoundrels not patriotism.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Just as well Mutti hasn't got anything else on her plate:

    These new entrants make up less than 2% of the German population, but constitute 9% of Germany's criminal population. They not only indulge in petty crime but have come to dominate serious and violent crime in Germany. Nearly 15% of all suspects charged with serious bodily harm, rapes and sexual assaults come from this group, the police crime report reveals.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-03/germany-hit-merkels-imported-crime-wave
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    Would anyone rather have Corbyn conducting these negotiations here.

    Corbyn can barely negotiate a revolving door.

    The issue with the forced choice is while Jezza would fuck it up by accident, Tezza seems determined to fuck it up through choice.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Mr. Gallowgate, interesting to hear your thoughts (as a federalist).

    I am definitely not one of those. At the moment, a bit on the fence about whether May was wise to say what she did. However, I do think there's a lack of critical thinking from some in the media, when the EU leaks a spun version of events, lets rumours fly of their Danegeld demand rising from 60 to 100bn, and comes out with things like "Brexit cannot be a success".

    Hmm.

    Regardless of rights and wrongs, it is very important not to go into negotiations with the other side believing they can bully you, or having already let yourself be bullied by them.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Strong and Stable

    @stefanstern: One leak to the press and the PM goes to DefCon1. Not reassuring. The next two years will be difficult and will require a steady nerve.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    You can get 3/1 from Coral for UKIP to win at least one seat, if the EU keep up their crazy rhetoric, that could become value.
    As well as Clacton and Thurrock there are places further north where UKIP finished second in 2015 and where a swing from Labour towards Con and Lib/Dem might allow a strong UKIP candidate to nip through the middle.
    The council elections tomorrow could provide clues.

    Clue: UKIP are going to get hammered. And not in the sense of Farage down the pub....
    Dunno, their percentage in 2015 was 12.9% the other day there was a poll in the Mail on Sunday showing 11% support, other polls have been lower but if the absurd EU rhetoric continues double figures could return to all polls.
    The 12.9% was spread around the whole country and UKIP had a candidate in every seat in England and Wales, most of Scotland and some in Northern Ireland, this time there will be around 400 candidates with some no hope areas excluded and Brexiteers like Kate Hoey, Boris Johnson and others given a free ride.
    As the Conservatives have had a lacklustre campaign so far, there is a possibility of UKIP winning a seat, the local elections could provide some information as to where.
    This is a betting forum and I'm just saying that 3/1 could be good value and won't stick around if polls do shift.
    Speaking as a left-leaning person who could not vote for a Labour party led by Mr Corbyn or anyone like him, that made me laugh out loud.

    To my simple mind, the Conservative campaign seems to have been completed overshadowed by a series of spectacular own-goals from Labour.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2017

    Just as well Mutti hasn't got anything else on her plate:

    These new entrants make up less than 2% of the German population, but constitute 9% of Germany's criminal population. They not only indulge in petty crime but have come to dominate serious and violent crime in Germany. Nearly 15% of all suspects charged with serious bodily harm, rapes and sexual assaults come from this group, the police crime report reveals.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-03/germany-hit-merkels-imported-crime-wave

    I wonder what the stats are for Sweden? Oh wait nobody is allowed to know cos it is racialist.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Ben Wright @BBCBenWright
    Juncker chief of staff @MartinSelmayr says his boss won't spend more than half an hour a week on Brexit. EU has other things to do


    Before lunch or after lunch?
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034



    Theresa May may just have made leaking details of meetings that bit more difficult

    Indeed

  • Options
    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Pulpstar said:

    John Woodcock reselected by his constituency party.

    bye bye.....
    I think he'll survive.
    The odds look about right to me there. Personal votes simply aren't that strong.
    Maybe.
    A good constituency to judge the effect of personal votes will be Edgbaston. I expect a larger-than-average swing to the Tories as Gisela's personal vote unwinds.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Ben Wright @BBCBenWright
    Juncker chief of staff @MartinSelmayr says his boss won't spend more than half an hour a week on Brexit. EU has other things to do


    Before lunch or after lunch?

    To be fair, and thank god, he is not leading the negotiations.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    RobD said:

    Ben Wright @BBCBenWright
    Juncker chief of staff @MartinSelmayr says his boss won't spend more than half an hour a week on Brexit. EU has other things to do


    Before lunch or after lunch?

    To be fair, and thank god, he is not leading the negotiations.
    I doubt he'll be coming to dinner either.....
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: We used to joke one day May wd end a No.10 spch with 'I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received..'
    Used to. #mayday
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Of course, if our EU friends want to improve the atmosphere, they have a very simple means to do so. They just need to let it be known that they too don't recognise the figures of €50bn to €100bn which have appeared in the press, and that they expect the final figure to be sensible when compared with the UK's annual membership cost.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,542

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,043

    Just as well Mutti hasn't got anything else on her plate:

    These new entrants make up less than 2% of the German population, but constitute 9% of Germany's criminal population. They not only indulge in petty crime but have come to dominate serious and violent crime in Germany. Nearly 15% of all suspects charged with serious bodily harm, rapes and sexual assaults come from this group, the police crime report reveals.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-03/germany-hit-merkels-imported-crime-wave

    I wonder what the stats are for Sweden? Oh wait nobody is allowed to know cos it is racialist.
    It is worth remembering, of course, that demographics make it inevitable that immigrants will make up a higher proportion of criminals. The majority of crimes in any country are committed by men aged 16 to 25. Immigrants are disproportionately men aged 16 to 25 - not because of criminality, but because it's a lot easier to move your life before you settle down and have children.

    Rather than comparing to the general population, you need to compare crime rates for Swedish and German men aged 16 to 25.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Prof Curtice:

    But while progressives have talked, those on the other side of the fence, who back Brexit, have walked. Without prompting, many a Ukip supporter seems to have decided that the best way of realising their vision of Brexit is to back May’s Conservatives. As a result, stopping the prime minister in her tracks has got that bit harder.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/03/regressive-alliance-stopping-tories-harder-ukip-brexit-conservatives
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,082

    Mr. Gallowgate, interesting to hear your thoughts (as a federalist).

    I am definitely not one of those. At the moment, a bit on the fence about whether May was wise to say what she did. However, I do think there's a lack of critical thinking from some in the media, when the EU leaks a spun version of events, lets rumours fly of their Danegeld demand rising from 60 to 100bn, and comes out with things like "Brexit cannot be a success".

    Hmm.

    Certainly. Prior to the referendum and for many years prior, I wanted ultimately that we would fully integrate. That meant the Euro, Schengen and to take a lead role in the EU like Germany. That doesn't mean I didn't think the EU needed reform, but that ultimately that the federalism vision was a good one.

    However, since the referendum, I've come to terms with the fact that this isn't Britain's destiny and that Europe (the continent) needs to make the best of it.

    I don't like the scornful and spiteful rhetoric coming from certain people within the EU establishment. I also don't like the rhetoric coming from people from the 'liberal elite' that our nation is nothing and that we should just bend over and take our punishment. European countries should be our allies, and we should be theirs. We should reach a mutually beneficial deal and be done with it.

    I'm a member of the Lib Dems, have been a Labour member in the past and have never ever voted Conservative, but May's pragmatism as someone who (allegedly) voted to remain to try and make the best of the situation is very endearing. I think it will win her a lot of votes. She isn't talking our nation down, unlike some people.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057

    HYUFD said:

    All Osborne is doing is burning his bridges with the Tory Party

    Looking at it another way: the government desperately needs opposition. Labour aren't providing one, and the Lib Dems appear adrift. If the opposition has to be provided by ex-senior Tories, so be it.
    He is not opposition. He is one long Heathite sulk. The only difference is he has chosen to do it from behind a newspaper rather than from the back benches. And he is not providing real opposition, just sniping over bits he takes as a personal affront.
    Far too early to say that.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Mr. Gallowgate, interesting to hear your thoughts (as a federalist).

    I am definitely not one of those. At the moment, a bit on the fence about whether May was wise to say what she did. However, I do think there's a lack of critical thinking from some in the media, when the EU leaks a spun version of events, lets rumours fly of their Danegeld demand rising from 60 to 100bn, and comes out with things like "Brexit cannot be a success".

    Hmm.

    Certainly. Prior to the referendum and for many years prior, I wanted ultimately that we would fully integrate. That meant the Euro, Schengen and to take a lead role in the EU like Germany. That doesn't mean I didn't think the EU needed reform, but that ultimately that the federalism vision was a good one.

    However, since the referendum, I've come to terms with the fact that this isn't Britain's destiny and that Europe (the continent) needs to make the best of it.

    I don't like the scornful and spiteful rhetoric coming from certain people within the EU establishment. I also don't like the rhetoric coming from people from the 'liberal elite' that our nation is nothing and that we should just bend over and take our punishment. European countries should be our allies, and we should be theirs. We should reach a mutually beneficial deal and be done with it.

    I'm a member of the Lib Dems, have been a Labour member in the past and have never ever voted Conservative, but May's pragmatism as someone who (allegedly) voted to remain to try and make the best of the situation is very endearing. I think it will win her a lot of votes. She isn't talking our nation down, unlike some people.
    +1
  • Options
    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    I'm not sure if protocol permits me to speculate... but Theresa May’s ‘don’t mess with the Empire’ speech followed a half hour audience with Her Majesty the Queen.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,762
    AnneJGP said:

    DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    You can get 3/1 from Coral for UKIP to win at least one seat, if the EU keep up their crazy rhetoric, that could become value.
    As well as Clacton and Thurrock there are places further north where UKIP finished second in 2015 and where a swing from Labour towards Con and Lib/Dem might allow a strong UKIP candidate to nip through the middle.
    The council elections tomorrow could provide clues.

    Clue: UKIP are going to get hammered. And not in the sense of Farage down the pub....
    Dunno, their percentage in 2015 was 12.9% the other day there was a poll in the Mail on Sunday showing 11% support, other polls have been lower but if the absurd EU rhetoric continues double figures could return to all polls.
    The 12.9% was spread around the whole country and UKIP had a candidate in every seat in England and Wales, most of Scotland and some in Northern Ireland, this time there will be around 400 candidates with some no hope areas excluded and Brexiteers like Kate Hoey, Boris Johnson and others given a free ride.
    As the Conservatives have had a lacklustre campaign so far, there is a possibility of UKIP winning a seat, the local elections could provide some information as to where.
    This is a betting forum and I'm just saying that 3/1 could be good value and won't stick around if polls do shift.
    Speaking as a left-leaning person who could not vote for a Labour party led by Mr Corbyn or anyone like him, that made me laugh out loud.

    To my simple mind, the Conservative campaign seems to have been completed overshadowed by a series of spectacular own-goals from Labour.
    Yep - lacklustre beats lackwit.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited May 2017
    snip
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,714

    ‪I bet Theresa May has an enemies list too. ‬

    Are you on it ;-)
    He'll be gutted if he isn't in the top 10.
    What was Paul Newman's greatest achievement?

This discussion has been closed.