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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Day 2 of Osbo’s new job and he’s not being helpful to the woma

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,762
    AnneJGP said:

    SeanT said:

    How the FT came up with that hundred billion figure

    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

    Some fascinating horrors. France and Germany have decided we get zero EU assets. Nada. We will still have to subsidise French farmers AFTER Brexit. We gotta pay for bridges and railways in the EU far into the 2020s. And so forth.

    This is a bill designed to be rejected, if it appears in this fashion. Even with a 900 seat majority, TMay could not get that past her party, or the country.


    As Juncker might say: "If you stay you pay, if you leave you contribute".

    In reality, the only acceptable numbers to the UK electorate will be a steadily decreasing EU bill down to a much smaller number.

    It seems quite likely, to me, that the UK electorate would find it acceptable if some of the money we end up paying is in direct payments to the Republic of Ireland, in order to ease the transition.
    Which could also then count towards our 0.7% GDP foreign aid commitment.
    (Actually not a bad idea to consider for more of any post-Brexit settlement.)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Nabavi, would've been easier to give him whisky dosed with potent laxatives.

    Mr. T, damned unfair comparison on Klitschko.

    Mr. Eagles, like Cameron lied over being willing to campaign for us to leave the EU?
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited May 2017
    Nigelb said:

    SeanT said:

    How the FT came up with that hundred billion figure

    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

    Some fascinating horrors. France and Germany have decided we get zero EU assets. Nada. We will still have to subsidise French farmers AFTER Brexit. We gotta pay for bridges and railways in the EU far into the 2020s. And so forth.

    This is a bill designed to be rejected, if it appears in this fashion. Even with a 900 seat majority, TMay could not get that past her party, or the country.

    Opening bids are designed to be rejected; its what follows that counts.

    Granted, the EU seem to come up this in a way to maximise resentment, which is not entirely rational you expect a genuine negotiation.
    Remember also that there are a number of players with differing agendas on the EU side of the table; on our side, there will be only one (which is of course the point of the current election, however 'irrelevant' some would say it is).
    There is no point negotiating at all if the opening bids are such as to indicate that there is no potential for a mutual win. If a car is advertised for $500,000, I don't even go to kick the tyres. The EU are in danger of bidding themselves out of a negotiation.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    lol. TMay goes full on Anthony Joshua on Klitschko Juncker

    Just heard it - Churchillian in it's way , Go for it Theresa ;-)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Why don't the usuals like Dan the Man anymore?

    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges · 5m5 minutes ago
    You know what, good for Theresa May. Juncker and the EU leaders have crossed the road to pick a fight with her. Totally right to hit back.

    He's right. All this sneering and chortling, the leaking and bullying. Fuck it. Knee 'em in the goolies, Theresa.

    I see Mr Hodges is now, also, a reluctant Brexiteer.

    Not the first time. When she called the GE, she charged out of #10 and basically had a run up and whacked Jezza in the nuts.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: The 1st sentence is extraordinary. The 2nd is just untrue. https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/859785219813122049/photo/1
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941

    She's trying to undermine Juncker. Seems fair enough.

    She is telling us that the UK's position has been misrepresented but she will not tell us what the UK's position is. That's how much she trust the British electorate.

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    DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    You can get 3/1 from Coral for UKIP to win at least one seat, if the EU keep up their crazy rhetoric, that could become value.
    As well as Clacton and Thurrock there are places further north where UKIP finished second in 2015 and where a swing from Labour towards Con and Lib/Dem might allow a strong UKIP candidate to nip through the middle.
    The council elections tomorrow could provide clues.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KateEMcCann: DD this morning: We negotiate behind closed doors, not with a megaphone. PM 6 hours later: *Grabs megaphone* EU trying to derail election.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2017
    This good cop, bad cop routine is getting tedious.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Also, there's a huge gap in funding for many of these EU sweetheart projects..

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/adam-hamdy/eu-referendum_b_10625150.html
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PCollinsTimes: I quite agree with Theresa May that it's outrageous if it is shown that the Juncker team timed their leak to help the Tories in the election
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017

    Cyan said:

    If you think the UK has a problem....at least we can just say "nah....on yer bike. WTO it is. We'll survive." Can the EU REALLY take that as an acceptable outcome?

    No - without Britain they'd be completely cut off and without a paddle. They'd try for a while to pass crepes and sauerkraut around the table as if they were port. Then they'd collapse, bawling their little foreign eyes out.

    What is the EU's track record on negotiating? They are used to just saying "this is how it will be, Greece" or whoever. They didn't "negotiate" over the Constitution when it got rejected - just changed the name and ploughed on. Now they have no choice but to negotiate - and to co-ordinate 27 opinions. Against Theresa May's poker face. It's gonna be a hoot.....

    Yep, it will be utterly hilarious for wealthy Brexiteers who have nothing to lose from a rock-hard Brexit.
    I have to wonder whether suddenly the ground might collapse under the Tory election effort, given how they're selling themselves as strong and stable but calling a general election because they're anything but, and given how they're promising to smack those continentals about, which eventually people might respond to by saying "yeah, until the loss of the last British livelihood". Led by Blair, Brown or Miliband, Labour would have the Tories' guts for garters.

    She's trying to undermine Juncker. Seems fair enough.

    C'mon, she's playing to the gallery. It's for home market consumption only. It's election propaganda. She and Juncker are probably having a good giggle together about it.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,113
    May has broken the record for the fastest descent into outright madness of any PM.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    timmo said:

    Local pseudo-poll in St Albans, Anne Main coming third!

    How long will it take for the Lib Dem leaflets to have an appropriate bar chart?

    http://www.hertsad.co.uk/news/general-election-2017-herts-ad-poll-says-anne-main-could-lose-st-albans-1-5000454

    The LDs push Daisy Benson every election and every election she dissappoints although she did become Mayor somewhere..was it Bedford?
    Are they being serious ? Apparently, Farron has already visited twice. Maybe he likes the local Indian.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iancolintaylor: @JohnRentoul She was strong but perhaps not stable..
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    I was wrong. Theresa May's a pound shop Richard Nixon, not a pound shop Gordon Brown.

    You mean she'll win two general election and make a historic and ground breaking trip to the far east .... North Korea ?!?!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. T, reminds me of when Blackadder asked Baldrick (applying to be an MP) what his minimum bribe level was.

    "One turnip. Hold on, I don't want to price myself out of the market."
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941
    Strong and unstable.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited May 2017
    Juncker is there to be undermined, he's very much the Diane Abbott of the EU with Verhofstadt in the Emily Thornberry role. Perhaps most pleasing is May's timed the speech so it's too late for the Evening Standard's print deadline thus making Osborne's EU meddling lead look rather old hat.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    The London Evening Standard used to be a tremendous newspaper with great writers and considerable style and panache. ...

    I always thought that the Evening News was the superior paper and was jolly disappointed when it went under. Each to their own I suppose.
    Blimey .... you're going back there a bit HurstLlama. I remember the Evening News dying on its feet, before it was subsumed into the Standard. IIRC, the Evening News was owned by Associated Newspapers (i.e.the Daily Mail Group) and the Standard by their bitter enemies at the Express Group and they owned the merged title 50%:50%, although Associated subsequently acquired outright ownership before eventually selling it for a song.
    Yes, I am going a long way back, Mr. Putney. I remember the evening newspaper seller at the corner of Chancery Lane and Holborn, "News an' Standar'", and the vans whizzing past chucking out a bundle of the latest editions without ever quite stopping (from memory the Evening News put out seven editions a day).

    The Evening News provided me with enough reading to last the Journey to East Putney station and there was a good crossword to fallback on in the event of a slow news day. I cannot remember what it used to cost, maybe sixpence.

    Once they get wireless working on the underground they will not even be able to give away the Standard.
    I remember the News dying. With my first measly pay check I needed some kitchen knives, so ordered some from an ad in the News. The day my cheque cashed, they went bankrupt. I never got the knives or a refund. Looking back, the sum involved was peanuts, but it was a big blow to my finances at the time.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    May has broken the record for the fastest descent into outright madness of any PM.

    Lol
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    DeClare said:

    You can get 3/1 from Coral for UKIP to win at least one seat, if the EU keep up their crazy rhetoric, that could become value.
    As well as Clacton and Thurrock there are places further north where UKIP finished second in 2015 and where a swing from Labour towards Con and Lib/Dem might allow a strong UKIP candidate to nip through the middle.
    The council elections tomorrow could provide clues.

    I doubt we need any more clues about the UKIP 2017 GE performance.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    DeClare said:

    You can get 3/1 from Coral for UKIP to win at least one seat, if the EU keep up their crazy rhetoric, that could become value.
    As well as Clacton and Thurrock there are places further north where UKIP finished second in 2015 and where a swing from Labour towards Con and Lib/Dem might allow a strong UKIP candidate to nip through the middle.
    The council elections tomorrow could provide clues.

    Clue: UKIP are going to get hammered. And not in the sense of Farage down the pub....
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Brom said:

    Juncker is there to be undermined, he's very much the Diane Abbott of the EU with Verhofstadt in the Emily Thornberry role. Perhaps most pleasing is May's timed the speech so it's too late for the Evening Standard's print deadline thus making Osborne's EU meddling lead look rather old hat.

    I’m still not sure what Junker hoped to achieve by revealing (his version) of a private dinner conversation. It just seems so counterproductive to the negotiations and at odds with Tusk’s no-nonsense approach.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tezza addresses the Nation

    WE WILL BUILD THE WALL, AND THE EU WILL PAY FOR IT!!!!!

    Cue, rapturous applause from useful idiots.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941
    Cyan said:

    Cyan said:

    If you think the UK has a problem....at least we can just say "nah....on yer bike. WTO it is. We'll survive." Can the EU REALLY take that as an acceptable outcome?

    No - without Britain they'd be completely cut off and without a paddle. They'd try for a while to pass crepes and sauerkraut around the table as if they were port. Then they'd collapse, bawling their little foreign eyes out.

    What is the EU's track record on negotiating? They are used to just saying "this is how it will be, Greece" or whoever. They didn't "negotiate" over the Constitution when it got rejected - just changed the name and ploughed on. Now they have no choice but to negotiate - and to co-ordinate 27 opinions. Against Theresa May's poker face. It's gonna be a hoot.....

    Yep, it will be utterly hilarious for wealthy Brexiteers who have nothing to lose from a rock-hard Brexit.
    I have to wonder whether suddenly the ground might collapse under the Tory election effort, given how they're selling themselves as strong and stable but calling a general election because they're anything but, and given how they're promising to smack those continentals about, which eventually people might respond to by saying "yeah, until the loss of the last British livelihood". Led by Blair, Brown or Miliband, Labour would have the Tories' guts for garters.

    She's trying to undermine Juncker. Seems fair enough.

    C'mon, she's playing to the gallery. It's for home market consumption only. It's election propaganda.

    Nah - they are going to walk the election. May is playing that perfectly. Her problems begin the day after, when she has to deliver a deal. The blithe assumptions of wealthy right wing Brexiteers that plucky Brits will swallow the self-inflicted pain of a rock hard Brexit in order to show Johnny Foreigner who is who have yet to be tested by reality. We shall see how it all pans out once jobs start to go, taxes begin to rise and public services get cut further.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345
    Theresa socking it to the EU is going to be hugely popular.

    Sky not happy but they are arch remainers.

    TM is obviously going big time for Juncker et al and must be confident she can divide the commission from the council. The European Parliament today showed signs of stress and were not happy with the leaks by Junckers.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Just an aside, but if you get a wonky new £1 (a few of them have errors) it may be worth keeping it, as such things can increase the value.

    A silver 2p piece, for example, is worth something like £50 (happens when blank silver falls into a 2p press).
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Scott_P said:

    Tezza addresses the Nation

    WE WILL BUILD THE WALL, AND THE EU WILL PAY FOR IT!!!!!

    Cue, rapturous applause from useful idiots.

    You do make me laugh scott ;-)
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Brom said:

    Juncker is there to be undermined, he's very much the Diane Abbott of the EU with Verhofstadt in the Emily Thornberry role. Perhaps most pleasing is May's timed the speech so it's too late for the Evening Standard's print deadline thus making Osborne's EU meddling lead look rather old hat.

    I’m still not sure what Junker hoped to achieve by revealing (his version) of a private dinner conversation. It just seems so counterproductive to the negotiations and at odds with Tusk’s no-nonsense approach.
    The audience isn't just Britain.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325
    timmo said:

    Local pseudo-poll in St Albans, Anne Main coming third!

    How long will it take for the Lib Dem leaflets to have an appropriate bar chart?

    http://www.hertsad.co.uk/news/general-election-2017-herts-ad-poll-says-anne-main-could-lose-st-albans-1-5000454

    The LDs push Daisy Benson every election and every election she dissappoints although she did become Mayor somewhere..was it Bedford?
    I think you're a bit confused? Daisy Benson was the candidate who moved heaven and earth to get the Yeovil nomination, moved down there, signed up for the emergency 2017 candidate selection for that seat and then mysteriously ducked out at the very last minute. Daisy Cooper is the St Albans candidate but she hasn't been mayor of anywhere. The LibDem mayor of Bedford is Dave Hodgson and of Watford Dorothy Thornhill.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: Can any1 recall a PM accusing an allied power, let alone a group the UK's still a member of, of trying to interfere in our elections before?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345

    May has broken the record for the fastest descent into outright madness of any PM.

    So predictable
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    Cyan said:

    If you think the UK has a problem....at least we can just say "nah....on yer bike. WTO it is. We'll survive." Can the EU REALLY take that as an acceptable outcome?

    No - without Britain they'd be completely cut off and without a paddle. They'd try for a while to pass crepes and sauerkraut around the table as if they were port. Then they'd collapse, bawling their little foreign eyes out.

    What arrogance ! No wonder we have an economy where the currency needs a devaluation every 5 years just to survive.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TMay deliberately sabotaging the negotiations for her own ends

    @bbclaurak: You can see why PM might want to play this for all its worth in election context, but words like those can't be unsaid..
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    TOPPING said:

    So anyone know the answer to the important question: who's the girl with famous mum making her fashion debut?

    LOL
    Well? Who is it?

    We should be told!

    I think TSE has the Editor on speed-dial....maybe we could prevail?
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    May has broken the record for the fastest descent into outright madness of any PM.

    Lol
    Private Eye is already calling her 'President May'.
    She's fallen out with the queen multiple times. She hasn't been in the job for a year.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Scott_P - the speeches made by Obama and Schauble during the referendum were that, of course.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. T, the Gibraltar/Northern Ireland comments are also worth recalling.

    Mr. P, words like 'Brexit cannot be a success' also cannot be unsaid.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    SeanT said:

    How the FT came up with that hundred billion figure

    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

    Some fascinating horrors. France and Germany have decided we get zero EU assets. Nada. We will still have to subsidise French farmers AFTER Brexit. We gotta pay for bridges and railways in the EU far into the 2020s. And so forth.

    This is a bill designed to be rejected, if it appears in this fashion. Even with a 900 seat majority, TMay could not get that past her party, or the country.

    I just wonder - maybe the EU hasn't got a fucking clue how to handle Brexit? Utterly lost in how to juggle getting in cash to keep offering sweeteners to its members and making it so horrible for others to have the temerity to leave - whilst not destroying export markets to the UK.

    If you think the UK has a problem....at least we can just say "nah....on yer bike. WTO it is. We'll survive." Can the EU REALLY take that as an acceptable outcome?
    The US Army gave up on detailed battle plans in Vietnam (and thereafter) because of the old maxim that no plan survives contact with the enemy. Instead, they moved to issuing Command Intents, i.e. we need your battalion to take this hill be 20:00 in two days' time, how you do it is up to you.

    What the EU have agreed (at least what we have seen) is a detailed battle plan. Maybe they do have a command intent also (i.e. the outcomes they really want to achieve, not how they will go about getting them), but I doubt they do. Because that is where it is far harder to herd 27 cats than 1.

    Jointly agreeing on how they are going to beat up on the UK is easy. Deciding what bottom line is actually acceptable will be difficult because there are at least 27 different sets of priorities (plus however many additional ones Belgium gets).
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.

    The Irish paper yesterday was so explicit about what they wanted and how many times they had spoken to the EU (400 or so) that I found myself asking - why publish this?

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,543
    ‪I bet Theresa May has an enemies list too. ‬
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    chrisbchrisb Posts: 101
    SeanT said:

    Brom said:

    Juncker is there to be undermined, he's very much the Diane Abbott of the EU with Verhofstadt in the Emily Thornberry role. Perhaps most pleasing is May's timed the speech so it's too late for the Evening Standard's print deadline thus making Osborne's EU meddling lead look rather old hat.

    I’m still not sure what Junker hoped to achieve by revealing (his version) of a private dinner conversation. It just seems so counterproductive to the negotiations and at odds with Tusk’s no-nonsense approach.
    There are reports in the FT and Guardian that it was Selmayr that leaked it (he's the one thought to favour No Deal, Crash Brexit) and that is has seriously pissed off national European leaders who DO want a deal. The Irish and Dutch - who are very eager for a deal - are particularly irritated.
    Between Juncker and Selmayr, I'm not sure who is the organ grinder and who is the monkey, but it seems clear that if a deal is to be done, the Commission will need to be sidelined because everyone knows the real organ grinder in Europe is Mrs Merkel.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,724
    timmo said:

    Local pseudo-poll in St Albans, Anne Main coming third!

    How long will it take for the Lib Dem leaflets to have an appropriate bar chart?

    http://www.hertsad.co.uk/news/general-election-2017-herts-ad-poll-says-anne-main-could-lose-st-albans-1-5000454

    The LDs push Daisy Benson every election and every election she dissappoints although she did become Mayor somewhere..was it Bedford?
    Wrong Daisy - it's Daisy Cooper in St Albans.
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/daisy_cooper
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Can any1 recall a PM accusing an allied power, let alone a group the UK's still a member of, of trying to interfere in our elections before?

    Can anyone remember when supposed friends and allies have said "your country cannot be allowed to succeed"?

    These are hostile acts. TMay has reacted accordingly.

    No, she is ramping up rhetoric in order to win an election. It will work big time. Then she has to do a deal. If she fails in that task, it will not be EU leaders who suffer the consequences.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    surbiton said:

    Cyan said:

    If you think the UK has a problem....at least we can just say "nah....on yer bike. WTO it is. We'll survive." Can the EU REALLY take that as an acceptable outcome?

    No - without Britain they'd be completely cut off and without a paddle. They'd try for a while to pass crepes and sauerkraut around the table as if they were port. Then they'd collapse, bawling their little foreign eyes out.

    What arrogance ! No wonder we have an economy where the currency needs a devaluation every 5 years just to survive.
    Sterling is far lower against both the euro and the USD than it was 10 years ago.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    A cynical person might think there were some elections going on tomorrow....
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    ‪I bet Theresa May has an enemies list too. ‬

    Are you on it ;-)
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    Brom said:

    Juncker is there to be undermined, he's very much the Diane Abbott of the EU with Verhofstadt in the Emily Thornberry role. Perhaps most pleasing is May's timed the speech so it's too late for the Evening Standard's print deadline thus making Osborne's EU meddling lead look rather old hat.

    I’m still not sure what Junker hoped to achieve by revealing (his version) of a private dinner conversation. It just seems so counterproductive to the negotiations and at odds with Tusk’s no-nonsense approach.
    The audience isn't just Britain.

    In fact, the audience is not Britain at all.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    timmo said:

    Local pseudo-poll in St Albans, Anne Main coming third!

    How long will it take for the Lib Dem leaflets to have an appropriate bar chart?

    http://www.hertsad.co.uk/news/general-election-2017-herts-ad-poll-says-anne-main-could-lose-st-albans-1-5000454

    The LDs push Daisy Benson every election and every election she dissappoints although she did become Mayor somewhere..was it Bedford?
    What has Daisy Benson to do with it LDem candidate is Daisy Cooper,
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    May has broken the record for the fastest descent into outright madness of any PM.

    Lol
    Private Eye is already calling her 'President May'.
    She's fallen out with the queen multiple times. She hasn't been in the job for a year.
    Season - at a guess, 7? - of The Crown will make interesting viewing then.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Cyan said:

    Cyan said:

    If you think the UK has a problem....at least we can just say "nah....on yer bike. WTO it is. We'll survive." Can the EU REALLY take that as an acceptable outcome?

    No - without Britain they'd be completely cut off and without a paddle. They'd try for a while to pass crepes and sauerkraut around the table as if they were port. Then they'd collapse, bawling their little foreign eyes out.

    What is the EU's track record on negotiating? They are used to just saying "this is how it will be, Greece" or whoever. They didn't "negotiate" over the Constitution when it got rejected - just changed the name and ploughed on. Now they have no choice but to negotiate - and to co-ordinate 27 opinions. Against Theresa May's poker face. It's gonna be a hoot.....

    Yep, it will be utterly hilarious for wealthy Brexiteers who have nothing to lose from a rock-hard Brexit.
    I have to wonder whether suddenly the ground might collapse under the Tory election effort, given how they're selling themselves as strong and stable but calling a general election because they're anything but, and given how they're promising to smack those continentals about, which eventually people might respond to by saying "yeah, until the loss of the last British livelihood". Led by Blair, Brown or Miliband, Labour would have the Tories' guts for garters.

    She's trying to undermine Juncker. Seems fair enough.

    C'mon, she's playing to the gallery. It's for home market consumption only. It's election propaganda. She and Juncker are probably having a good giggle together about it.

    She's set up a hell of a dividing line: either you are with us (her) or you are with the fiendish foreigners.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    timmo said:

    Local pseudo-poll in St Albans, Anne Main coming third!

    How long will it take for the Lib Dem leaflets to have an appropriate bar chart?

    http://www.hertsad.co.uk/news/general-election-2017-herts-ad-poll-says-anne-main-could-lose-st-albans-1-5000454

    The LDs push Daisy Benson every election and every election she dissappoints although she did become Mayor somewhere..was it Bedford?
    Wrong Daisy - it's Daisy Cooper in St Albans.
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/daisy_cooper
    That's the LibDems for you - pushing up the Daisy's.....
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    ‪I bet Theresa May has an enemies list too. ‬

    Are you on it ;-)
    He'll be gutted if he isn't in the top 10.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. B, assuming Merkel wins herself.

    That seems likely, but if arch-federalist Schulz won, to go along with federalist Macron, that wouldn't necessarily be to our advantage.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,724

    I was wrong. Theresa May's a pound shop Richard Nixon, not a pound shop Gordon Brown.

    Tricky Theresa?
    She lied over not holding a snap election.

    So yes the tricky moniker applies.
    Both Tricky Dicky and Tricky Theresa roll off the tongue nicely.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Juncker is there to be undermined, he's very much the Diane Abbott of the EU with Verhofstadt in the Emily Thornberry role. Perhaps most pleasing is May's timed the speech so it's too late for the Evening Standard's print deadline thus making Osborne's EU meddling lead look rather old hat.

    I’m still not sure what Junker hoped to achieve by revealing (his version) of a private dinner conversation. It just seems so counterproductive to the negotiations and at odds with Tusk’s no-nonsense approach.
    I assume he leaked the events, of course it could be a civil servant on either side of the negotiations. Assuming it was his leak it shows naivety in the extreme and suggests he'll be a complete liability for the EU over the next couple of years.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Can any1 recall a PM accusing an allied power, let alone a group the UK's still a member of, of trying to interfere in our elections before?

    No as it has not happened before
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Can any1 recall a PM accusing an allied power, let alone a group the UK's still a member of, of trying to interfere in our elections before?

    Can anyone remember when supposed friends and allies have said "your country cannot be allowed to succeed"?

    These are hostile acts. TMay has reacted accordingly.

    No, she is ramping up rhetoric in order to win an election. It will work big time. Then she has to do a deal. If she fails in that task, it will not be EU leaders who suffer the consequences.
    I concur. twas another May who once said something about 'fasten your seatbelts.....' :)

    Nevertheless I still believe muddle and compromise will be the prime ingredients of our departure from the EU - they usually are in politics.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941
    Theresa's enemies are now explicitly filthy foreigners and anyone who does not vote for her on 8th June. I suppose we should expect a knock on the door on some unspecified night. I am reminded of her hunt for illegal immigrants a few years back.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @OwenJones84: That wasn't Winston Churchill. That was David Icke.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Can any1 recall a PM accusing an allied power, let alone a group the UK's still a member of, of trying to interfere in our elections before?

    No as it has not happened before
    Of course we did have a POTUS interfering in a referendum last year, but as that was (a) at the invitation of HM Government and (b) incredibly inept, I guess it doesn't count.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    She's set up a hell of a dividing line: either you are with us (her) or you are with the fiendish foreigners.

    A dividing line made much more credible by the statements of Tim Farron and some Labour politicians, who give the impression that they are delighted that the EU27 seem to want to make Brexit a failure. Some posters here seem to see it the same way.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    Maybe the Labour vote will hold up and the result will be something like Con 45%, Lab 30%, LD 10%, UKIP 7%. Not sure which regions they'll do so well in though, apart from perhaps London. ElectoralCalculus's current forecast isn't a million miles away from those numbers.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,543
    edited May 2017

    TOPPING said:

    So anyone know the answer to the important question: who's the girl with famous mum making her fashion debut?

    LOL
    Well? Who is it?

    We should be told!

    I think TSE has the Editor on speed-dial....maybe we could prevail?
    I've asked my source at the Standard, and the girl in question is the daughter of Kate Moss.

    Her name is Lila Grace.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    ‪I bet Theresa May has an enemies list too. ‬

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIWeGcwkg7I

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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Juncker is there to be undermined, he's very much the Diane Abbott of the EU with Verhofstadt in the Emily Thornberry role. Perhaps most pleasing is May's timed the speech so it's too late for the Evening Standard's print deadline thus making Osborne's EU meddling lead look rather old hat.

    I’m still not sure what Junker hoped to achieve by revealing (his version) of a private dinner conversation. It just seems so counterproductive to the negotiations and at odds with Tusk’s no-nonsense approach.
    I assume he leaked the events, of course it could be a civil servant on either side of the negotiations. Assuming it was his leak it shows naivety in the extreme and suggests he'll be a complete liability for the EU over the next couple of years.
    Junker has always been a liability, he’s the overbearing and tactless face of the EU.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345
    edited May 2017

    Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.

    I do not agree - there are nations who are sick of Junckers and his cohorts - the Irish, Danes , Dutch and others will not permit their trade and their jobs to be sacrificed on a political project
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941
    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    Brom said:

    Juncker is there to be undermined, he's very much the Diane Abbott of the EU with Verhofstadt in the Emily Thornberry role. Perhaps most pleasing is May's timed the speech so it's too late for the Evening Standard's print deadline thus making Osborne's EU meddling lead look rather old hat.

    I’m still not sure what Junker hoped to achieve by revealing (his version) of a private dinner conversation. It just seems so counterproductive to the negotiations and at odds with Tusk’s no-nonsense approach.
    The audience isn't just Britain.

    In fact, the audience is not Britain at all.

    Exactly. It was designed for a German readership:



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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    chestnut said:

    Brom said:

    Juncker is there to be undermined, he's very much the Diane Abbott of the EU with Verhofstadt in the Emily Thornberry role. Perhaps most pleasing is May's timed the speech so it's too late for the Evening Standard's print deadline thus making Osborne's EU meddling lead look rather old hat.

    I’m still not sure what Junker hoped to achieve by revealing (his version) of a private dinner conversation. It just seems so counterproductive to the negotiations and at odds with Tusk’s no-nonsense approach.
    The audience isn't just Britain.
    It's election propaganda for Britain. It may also be election propaganda for France. If it is, it will get mentioned in tonight's debate. Macron: "Look what trouble Brexit Britain is having. Say no to uncertainty!" Le Pen: "The EU centre hates Britain because Britain has shown courage and what is possible. Say no to being servants and getting poorer!"

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Scott_P said:

    @OwenJones84: That wasn't Winston Churchill. That was David Icke.

    Says the man who backed jezza....
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Looks as though office politics is the only sort of politics the eurocrats do.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    timmo said:

    Local pseudo-poll in St Albans, Anne Main coming third!

    How long will it take for the Lib Dem leaflets to have an appropriate bar chart?

    http://www.hertsad.co.uk/news/general-election-2017-herts-ad-poll-says-anne-main-could-lose-st-albans-1-5000454

    The LDs push Daisy Benson every election and every election she dissappoints although she did become Mayor somewhere..was it Bedford?
    What has Daisy Benson to do with it LDem candidate is Daisy Cooper,
    Is it a PB chain post ??
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941

    She's set up a hell of a dividing line: either you are with us (her) or you are with the fiendish foreigners.

    A dividing line made much more credible by the statements of Tim Farron and some Labour politicians, who give the impression that they are delighted that the EU27 seem to want to make Brexit a failure. Some posters here seem to see it the same way.

    Yep - unless you back may you are a traitor.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. NorthWales, there was the Obama interference, but that was in a referendum, and he was invited by David Cameron, rather than criticised.

    Certainly an interesting move from May. I'm not convinced it was wise, however.

    Mr. Observer, only seen a snippet, but that seems to be rather over-egging the cake. Continental press/the EU Commission do not equal 'filthy foreigners'.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AhirShah: "I'm not saying it's the Illuminati. But I'm not not saying that" https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/859790602862514177/photo/1
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,113

    Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.

    I do not agree - their are nations who are sick of Junckers and his cohorts - the Irish, Danes , Dutch and others will not permit their trade and their jobs to be sacrificed on a political project
    The UK's threat of walking off the cliff edge is not credible, despite May's best efforts to pretend to be unhinged enough to do it.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,724
    surbiton said:

    timmo said:

    Local pseudo-poll in St Albans, Anne Main coming third!

    How long will it take for the Lib Dem leaflets to have an appropriate bar chart?

    http://www.hertsad.co.uk/news/general-election-2017-herts-ad-poll-says-anne-main-could-lose-st-albans-1-5000454

    The LDs push Daisy Benson every election and every election she dissappoints although she did become Mayor somewhere..was it Bedford?
    Are they being serious ? Apparently, Farron has already visited twice. Maybe he likes the local Indian.
    Betfair - St Albans
    Tories 1/9
    LibDems 9/2
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Juncker is there to be undermined, he's very much the Diane Abbott of the EU with Verhofstadt in the Emily Thornberry role. Perhaps most pleasing is May's timed the speech so it's too late for the Evening Standard's print deadline thus making Osborne's EU meddling lead look rather old hat.

    I’m still not sure what Junker hoped to achieve by revealing (his version) of a private dinner conversation. It just seems so counterproductive to the negotiations and at odds with Tusk’s no-nonsense approach.
    I assume he leaked the events, of course it could be a civil servant on either side of the negotiations. Assuming it was his leak it shows naivety in the extreme and suggests he'll be a complete liability for the EU over the next couple of years.
    Junker has always been a liability, he’s the overbearing and tactless face of the EU.
    And that is before he gets drunk...
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,325
    edited May 2017

    She's set up a hell of a dividing line: either you are with us (her) or you are with the fiendish foreigners.

    A dividing line made much more credible by the statements of Tim Farron and some Labour politicians, who give the impression that they are delighted that the EU27 seem to want to make Brexit a failure. Some posters here seem to see it the same way.
    Richard

    As you know our views of Brexit are very different but I do trust you will believe me when I state that on this matter I would be absolutely delighted to discover one day that you are right and I am completely wrong.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    felix said:

    DeClare said:

    You can get 3/1 from Coral for UKIP to win at least one seat, if the EU keep up their crazy rhetoric, that could become value.
    As well as Clacton and Thurrock there are places further north where UKIP finished second in 2015 and where a swing from Labour towards Con and Lib/Dem might allow a strong UKIP candidate to nip through the middle.
    The council elections tomorrow could provide clues.

    I doubt we need any more clues about the UKIP 2017 GE performance.
    Richard Younger-Ross, the LD former MP for Teignbridge (Newton Abbot), is now a County Councillor, and is standing for re-election tomorrow.

    If he also becomes the LD PPC for the GE, and wins, it will presumably mean a CC by-election in the very near future. Is it known whether there are many places in this situation? Is the GE likely to be followed by a rash of CC by-elections?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Theresa's enemies are now explicitly filthy foreigners and anyone who does not vote for her on 8th June. I suppose we should expect a knock on the door on some unspecified night. I am reminded of her hunt for illegal immigrants a few years back.

    Over the top don't you think ?

    Some posters on here say May losing it but just look at post like this.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,962

    TOPPING said:

    So anyone know the answer to the important question: who's the girl with famous mum making her fashion debut?

    LOL
    Well? Who is it?

    We should be told!

    I think TSE has the Editor on speed-dial....maybe we could prevail?
    I've asked my source at the Standard, and the girl in question is the daughter of Kate Moss.

    Her name is Lila Grace.
    You don't say! I thought it was a joke question?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,762

    Mr. B, assuming Merkel wins herself.

    That seems likely, but if arch-federalist Schulz won, to go along with federalist Macron, that wouldn't necessarily be to our advantage.

    Afternoon, Mr.D.
    Taken any position on the Spanish GP yet ?

    And, btw, YJB 116no against Durham.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Off topic.

    Now Parliament is dissolved, and MPs aren't MPs any more, do they continue to get paid?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JeremyCliffe: This is unhinged and pathetically parochial. The EU institutions and the EU27 *could* *not* *care* *less* how big t… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/859792229421993984
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.

    I do not agree - their are nations who are sick of Junckers and his cohorts - the Irish, Danes , Dutch and others will not permit their trade and their jobs to be sacrificed on a political project
    The UK's threat of walking off the cliff edge is not credible, despite May's best efforts to pretend to be unhinged enough to do it.

    There's no "cliff edge". That's just remoaner talk.

    There may be a bump in the track. A few passengers may spill their beer. We'll keep going.

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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Surprised people needed to look up that it's kate moss's daughter - spitting image of her!
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Off topic.

    Now Parliament is dissolved, and MPs aren't MPs any more, do they continue to get paid?

    Yes, despite not officially being MPs, elected officials can still claim their basic annual salary as well as some expenses during this period I believe.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    How the FT came up with that hundred billion figure

    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

    Some fascinating horrors. France and Germany have decided we get zero EU assets. Nada. We will still have to subsidise French farmers AFTER Brexit. We gotta pay for bridges and railways in the EU far into the 2020s. And so forth.

    This is a bill designed to be rejected, if it appears in this fashion. Even with a 900 seat majority, TMay could not get that past her party, or the country.

    I just wonder - maybe the EU hasn't got a fucking clue how to handle Brexit? Utterly lost in how to juggle getting in cash to keep offering sweeteners to its members and making it so horrible for others to have the temerity to leave - whilst not destroying export markets to the UK.

    If you think the UK has a problem....at least we can just say "nah....on yer bike. WTO it is. We'll survive." Can the EU REALLY take that as an acceptable outcome?
    The US Army gave up on detailed battle plans in Vietnam (and thereafter) because of the old maxim that no plan survives contact with the enemy. Instead, they moved to issuing Command Intents, i.e. we need your battalion to take this hill be 20:00 in two days' time, how you do it is up to you.

    What the EU have agreed (at least what we have seen) is a detailed battle plan. Maybe they do have a command intent also (i.e. the outcomes they really want to achieve, not how they will go about getting them), but I doubt they do. Because that is where it is far harder to herd 27 cats than 1.

    Jointly agreeing on how they are going to beat up on the UK is easy. Deciding what bottom line is actually acceptable will be difficult because there are at least 27 different sets of priorities (plus however many additional ones Belgium gets).
    Signs of discord even within the EU negotiating team, here

    Barnier regrets that the dinner was leaked. He's not happy.

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/05/03/latest-eu-says-time-running-out-for-brexit-deal.html
    Love this "The European Union is making it legally impossible for Britain to tackle key issues like trade with its European partners until its debts have been settled."

    No, the EU is tying Barnier's hands. It is not binding on the UK at all.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Watching this Prime Minister, it is clear this government needs to spend a lot of money on Mental Health.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rafaelbehr: If she believes it, she's paranoid beyond reason. If she doesn't she's cynical beyond decency.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. B, only the one market (win) up on Ladbrokes. I'm contemplating a silly, long-odds bet for minimal stake to commemorate the delightful Verstappen tip from last year. How time flies...

    I have one thingummyjig perhaps in mind, but want Betfair to get a bit livelier first.
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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Scott_P said:

    @JeremyCliffe: This is unhinged and pathetically parochial. The EU institutions and the EU27 *could* *not* *care* *less* how big t… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/859792229421993984

    This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I wonder if Heseltine and Clarke will come out with statements condemning her remarks.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,962
    The Citizens of Nowhere politically seem to be the Cameroons and Blairites... slagging off TM the PM and Corbo in equal measure with nothing positive to say.. grouch grouch
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Observer,

    The British, the British, the British are best, I wouldn't give you tuppence for all of the rest.

    Mrs May vs the Drunken piss-pot?

    She's not impressive but really?
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Off topic.

    Now Parliament is dissolved, and MPs aren't MPs any more, do they continue to get paid?

    Yes, despite not officially being MPs, elected officials can still claim their basic annual salary as well as some expenses during this period I believe.
    Thanks.

    I was just curious because it's always stressed that MPs aren't MPs after Parliament is dissolved, but apart from not being able to put the letters after their names, I've never been entirely clear what that actually means.
This discussion has been closed.