As you know our views of Brexit are very different but I do trust you will believe me when I state that on this matter I would be absolutely delighted to discover one day that you are right and I am completely wrong.
I don't think our views on Brexit are very different; I still think it was a big mistake to vote to leave, because the risks are very significant and no thought had been put by the Leave side into what exactly they were proposing.
However, the decision was taken, and it is effectively irreversible, if not legally then certainly political. So the priority now is to get the best deal possible. I think Theresa May is doing pretty much all she can do to optimise the chances of a reasonable deal, and her hand will certainly be strengthened by the election, but that doesn't guarantee success. If our EU friends don't want to do a deal, then they (and we) won't get one, which will damage both sides considerably. Their opening position of 'pay us zillions for nothing in return, and then maybe we'll condescend to discuss a deal some time' doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they are serious, or understand the risks to themselves.
Some fascinating horrors. France and Germany have decided we get zero EU assets. Nada. We will still have to subsidise French farmers AFTER Brexit. We gotta pay for bridges and railways in the EU far into the 2020s. And so forth.
This is a bill designed to be rejected, if it appears in this fashion. Even with a 900 seat majority, TMay could not get that past her party, or the country.
I just wonder - maybe the EU hasn't got a fucking clue how to handle Brexit? Utterly lost in how to juggle getting in cash to keep offering sweeteners to its members and making it so horrible for others to have the temerity to leave - whilst not destroying export markets to the UK.
If you think the UK has a problem....at least we can just say "nah....on yer bike. WTO it is. We'll survive." Can the EU REALLY take that as an acceptable outcome?
The US Army gave up on detailed battle plans in Vietnam (and thereafter) because of the old maxim that no plan survives contact with the enemy. Instead, they moved to issuing Command Intents, i.e. we need your battalion to take this hill be 20:00 in two days' time, how you do it is up to you.
What the EU have agreed (at least what we have seen) is a detailed battle plan. Maybe they do have a command intent also (i.e. the outcomes they really want to achieve, not how they will go about getting them), but I doubt they do. Because that is where it is far harder to herd 27 cats than 1.
Jointly agreeing on how they are going to beat up on the UK is easy. Deciding what bottom line is actually acceptable will be difficult because there are at least 27 different sets of priorities (plus however many additional ones Belgium gets).
Signs of discord even within the EU negotiating team, here
Barnier regrets that the dinner was leaked. He's not happy.
Love this "The European Union is making it legally impossible for Britain to tackle key issues like trade with its European partners until its debts have been settled."
No, the EU is tying Barnier's hands. It is not binding on the UK at all.
This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
And how does any of the tough talk help that to happen? The only person it helps is Theresa May, which makes the accusation of interfering in the election laughable given that she's the one who benefits.
Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.
I do not agree - their are nations who are sick of Junckers and his cohorts - the Irish, Danes , Dutch and others will not permit their trade and their jobs to be sacrificed on a political project
The UK's threat of walking off the cliff edge is not credible, despite May's best efforts to pretend to be unhinged enough to do it.
So you let Junckers tell tales of a confidential meeting then make absurd comments about Theresa May when she hits back. The one thing about the British is they expect fair play and the EU have failed in that respect in the last few days. She will receive widescale support for her stance
Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.
The Irish paper yesterday was so explicit about what they wanted and how many times they had spoken to the EU (400 or so) that I found myself asking - why publish this?
That's a good question - if the EU27 are so united behind their negotiating guidelines, why does Ireland feel the need to issue its own paper?
And why does the Irish paper talk about the negotiations being "sequenced in a dynamic way", which appears to contradict the rigid phased approach set out in the EU's paper?
Theresa socking it to the EU is going to be hugely popular.
Sky not happy but they are arch remainers.
TM is obviously going big time for Juncker et al and must be confident she can divide the commission from the council. The European Parliament today showed signs of stress and were not happy with the leaks by Junckers.
have you ever considered that May just isn't up to it?
I know someone who worked in the civil service. The person they utterly despised most was May...she was notorious for blaming people. Their favourite person was Alistair Darling.
May's stifling control freakery makes Gordon Brown seem like the Dude from the Big Lebowski in comparison. Her popularity is based only on one thing...that she isn't Jeremy Corbyn. Within a year she will be surgically removed by the men in grey coats.
This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
And how does any of the tough talk help that to happen? The only person it helps is Theresa May, which makes the accusation of interfering in the election laughable given that she's the one who benefits.
The EU demanded brexit bill was increased by 40 billion euros with minimal justification. Classic electioneering. (Not forgetting the comments on Gibraltar, Irish Reunification, FAZ leaks... etc.) The idea that she is the one who benefits is an uncertain outcome and one that depends on the specifics of the campaign. What matters is not the outcome but the EU's intent.
@JGForsyth: Can any1 recall a PM accusing an allied power, let alone a group the UK's still a member of, of trying to interfere in our elections before?
No as it has not happened before
Of course we did have a POTUS interfering in a referendum last year, but as that was (a) at the invitation of HM Government and (b) incredibly inept, I guess it doesn't count.
Plus we were in control of that so yes you're right it doesn't count.
She's set up a hell of a dividing line: either you are with us (her) or you are with the fiendish foreigners.
A dividing line made much more credible by the statements of Tim Farron and some Labour politicians, who give the impression that they are delighted that the EU27 seem to want to make Brexit a failure. Some posters here seem to see it the same way.
Indeed - their enthusiasm for Britain to grovel and still get shafted is a sight to behold.
Mr. B, only the one market (win) up on Ladbrokes. I'm contemplating a silly, long-odds bet for minimal stake to commemorate the delightful Verstappen tip from last year. How time flies...
I have one thingummyjig perhaps in mind, but want Betfair to get a bit livelier first.
lol. Then why did Guy Verhofstadt angrily write THIS, in a UK paper, decrying our election as pointless and wrong, and "a Tory power grab"?
Non-sequitor
The election is a Tory power grab, and that has no effect on the EU negotiations
This is not true. She can't negotiate a deal that has subsequent legislation she is unable to pass through the commons. A larger majority increases the range of possible deals she is able to negotiate.
I wonder if Heseltine and Clarke will come out with statements condemning her remarks.
Clarke should be put through a primary if he goes against the to be released manifesto.
He will be, sort of (or will have been).
MPs seeking reselection need at the minimum a vote of approval from their Association Exec. If they fail to receive that, it'd go to the full membership and a vote against there would trigger a selection process with other candidates being given the chance to apply.
But the timing is wrong to do it in relation to the manifesto as I don't think that'll be released until after close of nominations.
She can't negotiate a deal that has subsequent legislation she is unable to pass through the commons. A larger majority increases the range of possible deals she is able to negotiate.
No
It doesn't matter to the EU if she can get it through Parliament or not.
This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
And how does any of the tough talk help that to happen? The only person it helps is Theresa May, which makes the accusation of interfering in the election laughable given that she's the one who benefits.
The EU demanded brexit bill was increased by 40 billion euros with minimal justification. Classic electioneering. (Not forgetting the comments on Gibraltar, Irish Reunification, FAZ leaks... etc.) The idea that she is the one who benefits is an uncertain outcome and one that depends on the specifics of the campaign. What matters is not the outcome but the EU's intent.
Brexit has certain inevitable consequences which have yet to sink in with the majority of the people. The fact that we're having an election is immaterial. No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision.
And why does the Irish paper talk about the negotiations being "sequenced in a dynamic way", which appears to contradict the rigid phased approach set out in the EU's paper?
Because they are not stupid, and can see that the EU27's insistence on discussing the Irish border before discussing what arrangements will apply to trade across that border is completely out with the leprechauns.
Theresa socking it to the EU is going to be hugely popular.
Sky not happy but they are arch remainers.
TM is obviously going big time for Juncker et al and must be confident she can divide the commission from the council. The European Parliament today showed signs of stress and were not happy with the leaks by Junckers.
have you ever considered that May just isn't up to it?
I know someone who worked in the civil service. The person they utterly despised most was May...she was notorious for blaming people. Their favourite person was Alistair Darling.
May's stifling control freakery makes Gordon Brown seem like the Dude from the Big Lebowski in comparison. Her popularity is based only on one thing...that she isn't Jeremy Corbyn. Within a year she will be surgically removed by the men in grey coats.
This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
And how does any of the tough talk help that to happen? The only person it helps is Theresa May, which makes the accusation of interfering in the election laughable given that she's the one who benefits.
The EU demanded brexit bill was increased by 40 billion euros with minimal justification. Classic electioneering. (Not forgetting the comments on Gibraltar, Irish Reunification, FAZ leaks... etc.) The idea that she is the one who benefits is an uncertain outcome and one that depends on the specifics of the campaign. What matters is not the outcome but the EU's intent.
Brexit has certain inevitable consequences which have yet to sink in with the majority of the people. The fact that we're having an election is immaterial. No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision.
hahahahahahahahahahahaha.....do you really beleive that... lols
She can't negotiate a deal that has subsequent legislation she is unable to pass through the commons. A larger majority increases the range of possible deals she is able to negotiate.
No
It doesn't matter to the EU if she can get it through Parliament or not.
That is her problem, not theirs
Your claim was that it "has no effect on the EU negotiations". Just because it only affects Theresa May doesn't mean it doesn't impact negotiations. You are being incoherent.
Hmm... Theresa has risked making herself sound a touch rattled. The constituency she's courting regards Europe as a laughable irrelevancy that is plainly beneath us, so an airy dismissal of Junckers antics would have gone down better. Letting an EU federalist get under your skin? Many on the Right will be disappointed Theresa hasn't displayed a bit more supercilious British spunk.
Theresa socking it to the EU is going to be hugely popular.
Sky not happy but they are arch remainers.
TM is obviously going big time for Juncker et al and must be confident she can divide the commission from the council. The European Parliament today showed signs of stress and were not happy with the leaks by Junckers.
have you ever considered that May just isn't up to it?
I know someone who worked in the civil service. The person they utterly despised most was May...she was notorious for blaming people. Their favourite person was Alistair Darling.
May's stifling control freakery makes Gordon Brown seem like the Dude from the Big Lebowski in comparison. Her popularity is based only on one thing...that she isn't Jeremy Corbyn. Within a year she will be surgically removed by the men in grey coats.
Being disliked by civil servants doesn't necessarily mean a politician won't be a success. After all Mrs May survived 6 years at the Home Office, which is an achievement in itself.
The Tories will hit 50 in the polls in the next few days.
That won't surprise me. 52% of our voting public already demonstrated they were ill informed numpties last year. May's handbagging Junker will go down a treat with the great British public.
Theresa's enemies are now explicitly filthy foreigners and anyone who does not vote for her on 8th June. I suppose we should expect a knock on the door on some unspecified night. I am reminded of her hunt for illegal immigrants a few years back.
Over the top don't you think ?
Some posters on here say May losing it but just look at post like this.
It's not too outlandish to be worried about the vocabulary being thrown around at present. "Strong and stable" and "Crush the saboteurs" are not traditionally the sort of phrases that characterise a prosperous majoritarian democracy. I don't believe there is a plot for an authoritarian government, that sort of thing is for the birds, but the language being used in some places is eerily similar.
This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
And how does any of the tough talk help that to happen? The only person it helps is Theresa May, which makes the accusation of interfering in the election laughable given that she's the one who benefits.
The EU demanded brexit bill was increased by 40 billion euros with minimal justification. Classic electioneering. (Not forgetting the comments on Gibraltar, Irish Reunification, FAZ leaks... etc.) The idea that she is the one who benefits is an uncertain outcome and one that depends on the specifics of the campaign. What matters is not the outcome but the EU's intent.
Brexit has certain inevitable consequences which have yet to sink in with the majority of the people. The fact that we're having an election is immaterial. No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision.
"No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision." - I hate to break it to you, but you do not speak for vast swathes of European Federalists or those in the European Movement.
You can get 3/1 from Coral for UKIP to win at least one seat, if the EU keep up their crazy rhetoric, that could become value. As well as Clacton and Thurrock there are places further north where UKIP finished second in 2015 and where a swing from Labour towards Con and Lib/Dem might allow a strong UKIP candidate to nip through the middle. The council elections tomorrow could provide clues.
Clue: UKIP are going to get hammered. And not in the sense of Farage down the pub....
Dunno, their percentage in 2015 was 12.9% the other day there was a poll in the Mail on Sunday showing 11% support, other polls have been lower but if the absurd EU rhetoric continues double figures could return to all polls. The 12.9% was spread around the whole country and UKIP had a candidate in every seat in England and Wales, most of Scotland and some in Northern Ireland, this time there will be around 400 candidates with some no hope areas excluded and Brexiteers like Kate Hoey, Boris Johnson and others given a free ride. As the Conservatives have had a lacklustre campaign so far, there is a possibility of UKIP winning a seat, the local elections could provide some information as to where. This is a betting forum and I'm just saying that 3/1 could be good value and won't stick around if polls do shift.
A complicating factor is that the tyres will be soft, medium and hard. I'd guess that makes a one stop far more likely, passing is hard and we haven't see the hard (and possibly not the medium either) so far.
May's overdoing the 'interfering' angle, but they leaked a damaging story for their own gain, turn about is fair play, as they say, so she is using it. The reports of increased demands and how delusional May is can only have been to damage her and push us to a hardest possible exit, and she's making use of that. I don't like it, but it is what it is, people can stop reaching for the smelling salts here, same as with the still a problem but hardly 'worst scandal in British history' election overspend stuff.
As you know our views of Brexit are very different but I do trust you will believe me when I state that on this matter I would be absolutely delighted to discover one day that you are right and I am completely wrong.
I don't think our views on Brexit are very different; I still think it was a big mistake to vote to leave, because the risks are very significant and no thought had been put by the Leave side into what exactly they were proposing.
However, the decision was taken, and it is effectively irreversible, if not legally then certainly political. So the priority now is to get the best deal possible. I think Theresa May is doing pretty much all she can do to optimise the chances of a reasonable deal, and her hand will certainly be strengthened by the election, but that doesn't guarantee success. If our EU friends don't want to do a deal, then they (and we) won't get one, which will damage both sides considerably. Their opening position of 'pay us zillions for nothing in return, and then maybe we'll condescend to discuss a deal some time' doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they are serious, or understand the risks to themselves.
I seem to have misrepresented you, Richard. Please accept my apologies. As you may know I've been absent for quit a bit and unable to keep up as much as I once did.
And in fact on the evidence of your post I find we are very close indeed. Not only do I hope Brexit will be a success, I really don't see any purpose in trying to reverse it even if that were possible, which I am sure it is not.
I'm less optimistic than you about the 'negotiations' though. These seem to me to be about as even-handed as those described by Al Pacino to Diane Keaton in The Godfather. But I hope I am as wrong about that as I am about the outcome of Brexit generally.
Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.
I do not agree - their are nations who are sick of Junckers and his cohorts - the Irish, Danes , Dutch and others will not permit their trade and their jobs to be sacrificed on a political project
The UK's threat of walking off the cliff edge is not credible, despite May's best efforts to pretend to be unhinged enough to do it.
This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
And how does any of the tough talk help that to happen? The only person it helps is Theresa May, which makes the accusation of interfering in the election laughable given that she's the one who benefits.
The EU demanded brexit bill was increased by 40 billion euros with minimal justification. Classic electioneering. (Not forgetting the comments on Gibraltar, Irish Reunification, FAZ leaks... etc.) The idea that she is the one who benefits is an uncertain outcome and one that depends on the specifics of the campaign. What matters is not the outcome but the EU's intent.
Brexit has certain inevitable consequences which have yet to sink in with the majority of the people. The fact that we're having an election is immaterial. No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision.
"No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision." - I hate to break it to you, but you do not speak for vast swathes of European Federalists or those in the European Movement.
There is no credible opposition - it's as simple as that. The pro-European campaign groups are just going through the motions.
Some fascinating horrors. France and Germany have decided we get zero EU assets. Nada. We will still have to subsidise French farmers AFTER Brexit. We gotta pay for bridges and railways in the EU far into the 2020s. And so forth.
This is a bill designed to be rejected, if it appears in this fashion. Even with a 900 seat majority, TMay could not get that past her party, or the country.
I just wonder - maybe the EU hasn't got a fucking clue how to handle Brexit? Utterly lost in how to juggle getting in cash to keep offering sweeteners to its members and making it so horrible for others to have the temerity to leave - whilst not destroying export markets to the UK.
If you think the UK has a problem....at least we can just say "nah....on yer bike. WTO it is. We'll survive." Can the EU REALLY take that as an acceptable outcome?
The US Army gave up on detailed battle plans in Vietnam (and thereafter) because of the old maxim that no plan survives contact with the enemy. Instead, they moved to issuing Command Intents, i.e. we need your battalion to take this hill be 20:00 in two days' time, how you do it is up to you.
What the EU have agreed (at least what we have seen) is a detailed battle plan. Maybe they do have a command intent also (i.e. the outcomes they really want to achieve, not how they will go about getting them), but I doubt they do. Because that is where it is far harder to herd 27 cats than 1.
Jointly agreeing on how they are going to beat up on the UK is easy. Deciding what bottom line is actually acceptable will be difficult because there are at least 27 different sets of priorities (plus however many additional ones Belgium gets).
I've read that the US Army also gave up when they were within sight of winning that war, because of the press.
Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.
I do not agree - their are nations who are sick of Junckers and his cohorts - the Irish, Danes , Dutch and others will not permit their trade and their jobs to be sacrificed on a political project
The UK's threat of walking off the cliff edge is not credible, despite May's best efforts to pretend to be unhinged enough to do it.
They are pushing us off the edge of the cliff.
I bet williamglenn thinks that their 100bn euro demand is reasonable.
Your claim was that it "has no effect on the EU negotiations". Just because it only affects Theresa May doesn't mean it doesn't impact negotiations.
It doesn't affect that either
Parliament has voted through Tezza's Brexit agenda in its entirety with no amendments
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you can't imagine a vote that she would face a rebellion on then your imagination is depressingly limited.
A complicating factor is that the tyres will be soft, medium and hard. I'd guess that makes a one stop far more likely, passing is hard and we haven't see the hard (and possibly not the medium either) so far.
Might help Renault.
I think we might be slightly at cross purposes; YJB is of course Yorkshire's Johnny Bairstow. Now 159no.
Maybe the Labour vote will hold up and the result will be something like Con 45%, Lab 30%, LD 10%, UKIP 7%. Not sure which regions they'll do so well in though, apart from perhaps London. ElectoralCalculus's current forecast isn't a million miles away from those numbers.
I just can't see Labour topping 30% - mid 20's seems much more likely, once the voters twig that Labour is taking the piss. Diane Abbot won't be the only one to demonstrate that there really is no coherent plan for government from this bunch of clowns. They are making it up as they go along.
This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
And how does any of the tough talk help that to happen? The only person it helps is Theresa May, which makes the accusation of interfering in the election laughable given that she's the one who benefits.
The EU demanded brexit bill was increased by 40 billion euros with minimal justification. Classic electioneering. (Not forgetting the comments on Gibraltar, Irish Reunification, FAZ leaks... etc.) The idea that she is the one who benefits is an uncertain outcome and one that depends on the specifics of the campaign. What matters is not the outcome but the EU's intent.
Brexit has certain inevitable consequences which have yet to sink in with the majority of the people. The fact that we're having an election is immaterial. No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision.
"No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision." - I hate to break it to you, but you do not speak for vast swathes of European Federalists or those in the European Movement.
There is no credible opposition - it's as simple as that. The pro-European campaign groups are just going through the motions.
I agree with you that they will lose. However I just think that the EU is trying to aid them in whatever minute ways it can. Even if that means questioning the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom.
Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.
I do not agree - their are nations who are sick of Junckers and his cohorts - the Irish, Danes , Dutch and others will not permit their trade and their jobs to be sacrificed on a political project
The UK's threat of walking off the cliff edge is not credible, despite May's best efforts to pretend to be unhinged enough to do it.
They are pushing us off the edge of the cliff.
No, they are demonstrating that they are prepared to push us off, in the expectation that we will talk ourselves down in the end.
As you know our views of Brexit are very different but I do trust you will believe me when I state that on this matter I would be absolutely delighted to discover one day that you are right and I am completely wrong.
I don't think our views on Brexit are very different; I still think it was a big mistake to vote to leave, because the risks are very significant and no thought had been put by the Leave side into what exactly they were proposing.
However, the decision was taken, and it is effectively irreversible, if not legally then certainly political. So the priority now is to get the best deal possible. I think Theresa May is doing pretty much all she can do to optimise the chances of a reasonable deal, and her hand will certainly be strengthened by the election, but that doesn't guarantee success. If our EU friends don't want to do a deal, then they (and we) won't get one, which will damage both sides considerably. Their opening position of 'pay us zillions for nothing in return, and then maybe we'll condescend to discuss a deal some time' doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they are serious, or understand the risks to themselves.
I seem to have misrepresented you, Richard. Please accept my apologies. As you may know I've been absent for quit a bit and unable to keep up as much as I once did.
And in fact on the evidence of your post I find we are very close indeed. Not only do I hope Brexit will be a success, I really don't see any purpose in trying to reverse it even if that were possible, which I am sure it is not.
I'm less optimistic than you about the 'negotiations' though. These seem to me to be about as even-handed as those described by Al Pacino to Diane Keaton in The Godfather. But I hope I am as wrong about that as I am about the outcome of Brexit generally.
Peter
I am delighted to see you on the site. I hope you are well....I still remember the pbCOM betting syndicate you put together with great fondness.....
This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
And how does any of the tough talk help that to happen? The only person it helps is Theresa May, which makes the accusation of interfering in the election laughable given that she's the one who benefits.
The EU demanded brexit bill was increased by 40 billion euros with minimal justification. Classic electioneering. (Not forgetting the comments on Gibraltar, Irish Reunification, FAZ leaks... etc.) The idea that she is the one who benefits is an uncertain outcome and one that depends on the specifics of the campaign. What matters is not the outcome but the EU's intent.
Brexit has certain inevitable consequences which have yet to sink in with the majority of the people. The fact that we're having an election is immaterial. No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision.
"No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision." - I hate to break it to you, but you do not speak for vast swathes of European Federalists or those in the European Movement.
There is no credible opposition - it's as simple as that. The pro-European campaign groups are just going through the motions.
I agree with you that they will lose. However I just think that the EU is trying to aid them in whatever minute ways it can. Even if that means questioning the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom.
Brexit itself threatens the territorial integrity of the UK. If May were that bothered about it she would have recognised the significance of the strong Remain vote in Scotland and called a constitutional convention before even thinking about invoking Article 50.
@MichaelPDeacon: Does anyone seriously believe the EU are thinking, "Leak a bit of gossip to a German paper, Corbyn landslide. After all, it's a tight race"
Allegedly TMay, and apparently all PB Brexiteers...
Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.
I do not agree - their are nations who are sick of Junckers and his cohorts - the Irish, Danes , Dutch and others will not permit their trade and their jobs to be sacrificed on a political project
The UK's threat of walking off the cliff edge is not credible, despite May's best efforts to pretend to be unhinged enough to do it.
They are pushing us off the edge of the cliff.
No, they are demonstrating that they are prepared to push us off, in the expectation that we will talk ourselves down in the end.
If that were true they would leave us some room to step back from the edge, but they aren't, they are pressing every closer and forcing us closer all the time. As you keep saying, they hold the stronger hand, and their tactics are leaving May no room to concede anything without looking weak and pathetic, thus leaving her no room.
As you know our views of Brexit are very different but I do trust you will believe me when I state that on this matter I would be absolutely delighted to discover one day that you are right and I am completely wrong.
I don't think our views on Brexit are very different; I still think it was a big mistake to vote to leave, because the risks are very significant and no thought had been put by the Leave side into what exactly they were proposing.
However, the decision was taken, and it is effectively irreversible, if not legally then certainly political. So the priority now is to get the best deal possible. I think Theresa May is doing pretty much all she can do to optimise the chances of a reasonable deal, and her hand will certainly be strengthened by the election, but that doesn't guarantee success. If our EU friends don't want to do a deal, then they (and we) won't get one, which will damage both sides considerably. Their opening position of 'pay us zillions for nothing in return, and then maybe we'll condescend to discuss a deal some time' doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they are serious, or understand the risks to themselves.
I seem to have misrepresented you, Richard. Please accept my apologies. As you may know I've been absent for quit a bit and unable to keep up as much as I once did.
And in fact on the evidence of your post I find we are very close indeed. Not only do I hope Brexit will be a success, I really don't see any purpose in trying to reverse it even if that were possible, which I am sure it is not.
I'm less optimistic than you about the 'negotiations' though. These seem to me to be about as even-handed as those described by Al Pacino to Diane Keaton in The Godfather. But I hope I am as wrong about that as I am about the outcome of Brexit generally.
Peter
I am delighted to see you on the site. I hope you are well....I still remember the pbCOM betting syndicate you put together with great fondness.....
Silver lining for Tezza, she can still be outdone by Nicola in the bat-shit stakes
@NicolaSturgeon: 1/4 UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible
This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
And how does any of the tough talk help that to happen? The only person it helps is Theresa May, which makes the accusation of interfering in the election laughable given that she's the one who benefits.
The EU demanded brexit bill was increased by 40 billion euros with minimal justification. Classic electioneering. (Not forgetting the comments on Gibraltar, Irish Reunification, FAZ leaks... etc.) The idea that she is the one who benefits is an uncertain outcome and one that depends on the specifics of the campaign. What matters is not the outcome but the EU's intent.
Brexit has certain inevitable consequences which have yet to sink in with the majority of the people. The fact that we're having an election is immaterial. No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision.
hahahahahahahahahahahaha.....do you really beleive that... lols
Which party wants to do that? The nearest anyone else gets is the LDs (single market and 2nd referendum) and the SNP (single market for Scotland).
That'll help the negotiations, if they think our team are away with the fairies
And their approach has helped negotiations? Only one side is escalating matters? Bullcrap. Has May been the most at fault? That's an argument worth having, but 'EU Negotiatiors' who constantly just insult us and say how stupid we are, and demand more and more, offering all stick and no carrot while people on here pretend they want a deal, yeah, that really helps too, doesn't it?
This is plainly false. If the EU can force a coalition to prevent brexit then they're preventing a huge loss of net contribution. If Jeremy Cliffe can't see that he's an idiot.
And how does any of the tough talk help that to happen? The only person it helps is Theresa May, which makes the accusation of interfering in the election laughable given that she's the one who benefits.
The EU demanded brexit bill was increased by 40 billion euros with minimal justification. Classic electioneering. (Not forgetting the comments on Gibraltar, Irish Reunification, FAZ leaks... etc.) The idea that she is the one who benefits is an uncertain outcome and one that depends on the specifics of the campaign. What matters is not the outcome but the EU's intent.
Brexit has certain inevitable consequences which have yet to sink in with the majority of the people. The fact that we're having an election is immaterial. No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision.
"No-one, not even me, thinks that this election is about revisiting the Brexit decision." - I hate to break it to you, but you do not speak for vast swathes of European Federalists or those in the European Movement.
There is no credible opposition - it's as simple as that. The pro-European campaign groups are just going through the motions.
I agree with you that they will lose. However I just think that the EU is trying to aid them in whatever minute ways it can. Even if that means questioning the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom.
Brexit itself threatens the territorial integrity of the UK. If May were that bothered about it she would have recognised the significance of the strong Remain vote in Scotland and called a constitutional convention before even thinking about invoking Article 50.
This is a nonsense. We have seen the start of a Tory revival in Scotland.
I don't even like TMay, and think she is hardly helping matters, but the way this is presented as all the UKs fault, uncritical of anything the EU does, well, it is simply not credible.
@MichaelPDeacon: Does anyone seriously believe the EU are thinking, "Leak a bit of gossip to a German paper, Corbyn landslide. After all, it's a tight race" Allegedly TMay, and apparently all PB Brexiteers...
We're not saying the EU's strategy is coherent, sensible or will even work. But that doesn't mean it isn't their strategy.
@MichaelPDeacon: Does anyone seriously believe the EU are thinking, "Leak a bit of gossip to a German paper, Corbyn landslide. After all, it's a tight race"
Allegedly TMay, and apparently all PB Brexiteers...
I don't even like TMay, and think she is hardly helping matters, but the way this is presented as all the UKs fault, uncritical of anything the EU does, well, it is simply not credible.
Mr. NorthWales, May's criticism may drive the EU closer together.
I do not agree - their are nations who are sick of Junckers and his cohorts - the Irish, Danes , Dutch and others will not permit their trade and their jobs to be sacrificed on a political project
The UK's threat of walking off the cliff edge is not credible, despite May's best efforts to pretend to be unhinged enough to do it.
They are pushing us off the edge of the cliff.
No, they are demonstrating that they are prepared to push us off, in the expectation that we will talk ourselves down in the end.
If that were true they would leave us some room to step back from the edge, but they aren't, they are pressing every closer and forcing us closer all the time. As you keep saying, they hold the stronger hand, and their tactics are leaving May no room to concede anything without looking weak and pathetic, thus leaving her no room.
Is there some law that prevents Prime Ministers from ever looking weak and pathetic? You must have a short memory if you think they are immune from humiliating themselves.
That'll help the negotiations, if they think our team are away with the fairies
Senior EU source: Yes, it's true, we're trying to undermine Theresa May and we have spies in every house on Downing Street
They're hardly going to admit it, are they?
She wants them to back off, and quit the leaking and bullying. So she's swung a punch. Fair enough.
It also comes down in part to some EU politicians attitude to democracy - the people should only be allowed to choose what's good for them. With a bit of luck after Le Pen is out of the way the EU leakers will calm down a bit. Just ask the Italians or Greeks if the EU interferes in domestic politics...
Senior EU source: Yes, it's true, we're trying to undermine Theresa May and we have spies in every house on Downing Street
They're hardly going to admit it, are they?
She wants them to back off, and quit the leaking and bullying. So she's swung a punch. Fair enough.
TBH it's a no-lose move from her point of view. It will help keep her poll ratings up, and of course will have no deleterious effect on the negotiations, any more than their comments about the UK 'being on another galaxy' and 'Brexit cannot be a success' will be remembered by our side if and when the EU27 start actually negotiating. We are negotiating with grown-up politicians, or at least we hope so, not no-marks who harbour irrational grudges
What is clear, and a surprise to me, is that she's proving a more handbag-swinging PM than anyone expected.
The negotiations are the negotiations. What transpires, as we all agree on here, will be messy, unclear, drawn out, spun every which way, and inconclusive.
The shenanigans about TMay and the EU is just for domestic consumption. Interesting that we can, for example, identify such a strategy when other countries' leaders indulge in it, but less so when we are one of the parties doing it.
I have no doubts that it will be the least important element or influence on the talks when they finally begin (have they begun btw?).
It's interesting that those who are cheering Tezza for her belligerent stance, are also willing to praise her for chickening out of a live TV debate...
So anyone know the answer to the important question: who's the girl with famous mum making her fashion debut?
LOL
Well? Who is it?
We should be told!
I think TSE has the Editor on speed-dial....maybe we could prevail?
I've asked my source at the Standard, and the girl in question is the daughter of Kate Moss.
Her name is Lila Grace.
You don't say! I thought it was a joke question?
Well, it was a joke in that it seems to be the second-most important thing Londoners need to know. But I had no idea Kate Moss had a daughter, yet alone what she looks like.
I know f'all about models and supermodels. I don't intend to correct that anytime soon, as it's a pool of ignorance that I'm happy to wallow in.
It's interesting that those who are cheering Tezza for her belligerent stance, are also willing to praise her for chickening out of a live TV debate...
Perhaps May should invite Juncker to take part in a live TV debate, since he seems to be her main opponent.
As you know our views of Brexit are very different but I do trust you will believe me when I state that on this matter I would be absolutely delighted to discover one day that you are right and I am completely wrong.
I don't think our views on Brexit are very different; I still think it was a big mistake to vote to leave, because the risks are very significant and no thought had been put by the Leave side into what exactly they were proposing.
However, the decision was taken, and it is effectively irreversible, if not legally then certainly political. So the priority now is to get the best deal possible. I think Theresa May is doing pretty much all she can do to optimise the chances of a reasonable deal, and her hand will certainly be strengthened by the election, but that doesn't guarantee success. If our EU friends don't want to do a deal, then they (and we) won't get one, which will damage both sides considerably. Their opening position of 'pay us zillions for nothing in return, and then maybe we'll condescend to discuss a deal some time' doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they are serious, or understand the risks to themselves.
I seem to have misrepresented you, Richard. Please accept my apologies. As you may know I've been absent for quit a bit and unable to keep up as much as I once did.
And in fact on the evidence of your post I find we are very close indeed. Not only do I hope Brexit will be a success, I really don't see any purpose in trying to reverse it even if that were possible, which I am sure it is not.
I'm less optimistic than you about the 'negotiations' though. These seem to me to be about as even-handed as those described by Al Pacino to Diane Keaton in The Godfather. But I hope I am as wrong about that as I am about the outcome of Brexit generally.
Peter
I am delighted to see you on the site. I hope you are well....I still remember the pbCOM betting syndicate you put together with great fondness.....
Thanks Tyson. U still in Italy?
No....because of Brexit we had to move back because my wife didn't take residency before. We are now in Norwich.....it is blinking, bloody freezing today.....grey, miserable. Toscana seems a million miles away.....
@duncanrobinson: Amusingly, Jean-Claude Juncker's *very* influential chef de cabinet is about to do an interview. Fantastic. politico.eu/event/morgen-e…
@duncanrobinson: Amusingly, Jean-Claude Juncker's *very* influential chef de cabinet is about to do an interview. Fantastic. politico.eu/event/morgen-e…
@RemIsBuzzin: @PCollinsTimes@michaelgove No, she might well be right. It just makes her seems weak/paranoid to care so much. She should have been openly dismissive of Juncker.
It's interesting that those who are cheering Tezza for her belligerent stance, are also willing to praise her for chickening out of a live TV debate...
It's interesting that those who are cheering Tezza for her belligerent stance, are also willing to praise her for chickening out of a live TV debate...
Perhaps May should invite Juncker to take part in a live TV debate, since he seems to be her main opponent.
Apparently May is only allowed to talk to Barnier.
It's interesting that those who are cheering Tezza for her belligerent stance, are also willing to praise her for chickening out of a live TV debate...
Perhaps May should invite Juncker to take part in a live TV debate, since he seems to be her main opponent.
He's not May's main opponent, he's the UKs main opponent.
May's overdoing the 'interfering' angle, but they leaked a damaging story for their own gain, turn about is fair play, as they say, so she is using it. The reports of increased demands and how delusional May is can only have been to damage her and push us to a hardest possible exit, and she's making use of that. I don't like it, but it is what it is, people can stop reaching for the smelling salts here, same as with the still a problem but hardly 'worst scandal in British history' election overspend stuff.
I agree - but if May has over-reacted we can judge it by what should now be a very welcome silence from the EU Commission as they demonstrate they are the bigger person in this spat.
All Osborne is doing is burning his bridges with the Tory Party
Looking at it another way: the government desperately needs opposition. Labour aren't providing one, and the Lib Dems appear adrift. If the opposition has to be provided by ex-senior Tories, so be it.
@RemIsBuzzin: @PCollinsTimes@michaelgove No, she might well be right. It just makes her seems weak/paranoid to care so much. She should have been openly dismissive of Juncker.
So what's the Remoaner position, this minute? She's mad? She's David Icke? She's completely mad? She's wrong but it's cynical electioneering? She's wrong but it's tactics? She's right but it's the wrong tactic? What?
She'll be alright. The government will increase the mental illness budget.
May's overdoing the 'interfering' angle, but they leaked a damaging story for their own gain, turn about is fair play, as they say, so she is using it. The reports of increased demands and how delusional May is can only have been to damage her and push us to a hardest possible exit, and she's making use of that. I don't like it, but it is what it is, people can stop reaching for the smelling salts here, same as with the still a problem but hardly 'worst scandal in British history' election overspend stuff.
I agree - but if May has over-reacted we can judge it by what should now be a very welcome silence from the EU Commission as they demonstrate they are the bigger person in this spat.
That'll help the negotiations, if they think our team are away with the fairies
Ah I see I should have read the thread before making my earlier comment - the EU Commission are unable to keep a dignified silence but want to justify the PMs words for her.
Comments
However, the decision was taken, and it is effectively irreversible, if not legally then certainly political. So the priority now is to get the best deal possible. I think Theresa May is doing pretty much all she can do to optimise the chances of a reasonable deal, and her hand will certainly be strengthened by the election, but that doesn't guarantee success. If our EU friends don't want to do a deal, then they (and we) won't get one, which will damage both sides considerably. Their opening position of 'pay us zillions for nothing in return, and then maybe we'll condescend to discuss a deal some time' doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they are serious, or understand the risks to themselves.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/annex-recommendation-uk-eu-negotiations_3-may-2017_en.pdf
"...The negotiating directives may be amended and supplemented as necessary throughout the negotiations..."
They are helping TMay no end.
And why does the Irish paper talk about the negotiations being "sequenced in a dynamic way", which appears to contradict the rigid phased approach set out in the EU's paper?
I know someone who worked in the civil service. The person they utterly despised most was May...she was notorious for blaming people. Their favourite person was Alistair Darling.
May's stifling control freakery makes Gordon Brown seem like the Dude from the Big Lebowski in comparison. Her popularity is based only on one thing...that she isn't Jeremy Corbyn. Within a year she will be surgically removed by the men in grey coats.
The election is a Tory power grab, and that has no effect on the EU negotiations
(Not forgetting the comments on Gibraltar, Irish Reunification, FAZ leaks... etc.)
The idea that she is the one who benefits is an uncertain outcome and one that depends on the specifics of the campaign. What matters is not the outcome but the EU's intent.
YJB now 149; rather enterprising.
MPs seeking reselection need at the minimum a vote of approval from their Association Exec. If they fail to receive that, it'd go to the full membership and a vote against there would trigger a selection process with other candidates being given the chance to apply.
But the timing is wrong to do it in relation to the manifesto as I don't think that'll be released until after close of nominations.
It doesn't matter to the EU if she can get it through Parliament or not.
That is her problem, not theirs
I think you may just be over egging it there
I thought that was the point of them.
(edit) Of course, Jeremy Corbyn might not share that analysis.
Just because it only affects Theresa May doesn't mean it doesn't impact negotiations. You are being incoherent.
The 12.9% was spread around the whole country and UKIP had a candidate in every seat in England and Wales, most of Scotland and some in Northern Ireland, this time there will be around 400 candidates with some no hope areas excluded and Brexiteers like Kate Hoey, Boris Johnson and others given a free ride.
As the Conservatives have had a lacklustre campaign so far, there is a possibility of UKIP winning a seat, the local elections could provide some information as to where.
This is a betting forum and I'm just saying that 3/1 could be good value and won't stick around if polls do shift.
Parliament has voted through Tezza's Brexit agenda in its entirety with no amendments
Anyway, I'll keep an eye on it.
A complicating factor is that the tyres will be soft, medium and hard. I'd guess that makes a one stop far more likely, passing is hard and we haven't see the hard (and possibly not the medium either) so far.
Might help Renault.
And in fact on the evidence of your post I find we are very close indeed. Not only do I hope Brexit will be a success, I really don't see any purpose in trying to reverse it even if that were possible, which I am sure it is not.
I'm less optimistic than you about the 'negotiations' though. These seem to me to be about as even-handed as those described by Al Pacino to Diane Keaton in The Godfather. But I hope I am as wrong about that as I am about the outcome of Brexit generally.
That'll help the negotiations, if they think our team are away with the fairies
I am delighted to see you on the site. I hope you are well....I still remember the pbCOM betting syndicate you put together with great fondness.....
Allegedly TMay, and apparently all PB Brexiteers...
A strong Yorkshire means a strong England, especially as we've got a Yorkshireman as England captain, none of that southern shite.
@NicolaSturgeon: 1/4 UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible
UK media needs to be careful about taking every bit of Brussels spin/propaganda at face value, without question, context, sceptical analysis
Some desperately want to though.
Mr. P, the EU's hardly led by sober objectivity.
What is clear, and a surprise to me, is that she's proving a more handbag-swinging PM than anyone expected.
The shenanigans about TMay and the EU is just for domestic consumption. Interesting that we can, for example, identify such a strategy when other countries' leaders indulge in it, but less so when we are one of the parties doing it.
I have no doubts that it will be the least important element or influence on the talks when they finally begin (have they begun btw?).
Lay off Alastair Cook.
:-)
I know f'all about models and supermodels. I don't intend to correct that anytime soon, as it's a pool of ignorance that I'm happy to wallow in.
https://twitter.com/CaeciliusEst/status/859797683304878080
"if we let the bureaucrats of Brussels run over us, we will lose the chance to build a fairer society with real opportunity for all. "
That is scathing.