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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The death of populism?
As the outcome of round 1 of France’s Presidential election became clear, the relief in the rest of Europe was palpable. The French were not going to follow the perfidious British and vulgar Americans and vote in as their leader a populist promising to epater the European bourgeoisie. Europe was safe. Populism would remain a miserable Anglo-Saxon affair and much good would it do them.
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Good luck to Macron.
https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/858241310343528448
Mind you Le Pen on 40% or near is not a good sign that French politics will be in harmony anytime soon
Been out for a bit and returned to find Le Pen's price had taken a bit of a walk - out to 9.0 now. Can't find evidence of a poll. What have I missed?
A little later, an FN candidate couldn't get to the second round in a French Presidential election. Everything is fine.
A little later still, an FN candidate couldn't a big vote in the second round. Everything is fine.
A little later yet, an FN candidate will only get 35-40% in the second round. Everything is fine.
Why worry?
The Kremlin's attempts to subvert western politics through persistent propaganda designed to undermine faith in the system are extremely pernicious and need to be countered.
Democracy is a sufficiently messed up system that you really don't want to make it worse.
She will be Billie No Mates, like Nigel Farage. It takes a heart of stone...
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4459358/Farage-given-thumbs-White-House.html
@faisalislam: ...real shocker though - the Customs Union is even more popular. 57% of British voters say yes to staying in, 17% against, say @yougov / ST pic.twitter.com/8ungew948T
Then the next one comes along.... And will build on that 35-40%
Unless the underlying issues are dealt with.
In any case I think this year the establishment gets a reprieve mainly because the populists, Wilders, Le Pen and the AfD are too associated with the far right to win. Next year when Italy goes to the polls in May they will have a far greater challenge because the Eurosceptic 5*, who currently lead Italian polls, has more in common with Vote Leave, the official Brexit campaign group, than it does with the far right and thus may actually win power
Populism is also not only of the right but of the left too and Europe has already elected one populist leftwing government in Greece, Syriza, Podemos is still a force in Spain and Melenchon got almost 20% in France. In the US Sanders almost became the Democratic nominee and in the UK Corbyn now leads the main opposition party
It was the political baggage that came with it and the whole project of being consumed by a completely undemocratic superstate we rebelled against.
One factor you may not have considered is whether Le Pen's distancing from the FN is due to possible financial difficulties of the latter. I don't know if there is any truth in this. I picked it up in conversations with some French friends who are pretty politically alert, but of course that doesn't necessarily make them right.
There is of course the inquiry into FN election expenses, which may be linked, if indeed there is any substance in either.
I'll get back to you when I've done a little research, and some thinking.
Ask a different question, get different results.
Strangely it had Jeremy Clarkson's byline on it though
On the whole it would be far better to start planning for it, rather than chasing mirages.
Total denial from the PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/30/labour-figures-call-for-candidates-to-step-aside-for-greens-in-two-seats
Oh dear, there are now three copies of each thread on vanilla? Now, where has my Iraq information minister pic gone...
Edit> I see the question does mention the 4 freedoms but I know there has been a lot of polling which suggests strong support for ending FOM.
https://twitter.com/davidwalliams/status/858671578120425472
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/858761130709327872
https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/858651399747448835
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-londoners-are-biggest-champions-of-single-market-as-immigration-issue-splits-country-a3444441.html
On the one hand, perhaps they will be proven right?
On the other, so far they've had mass unemployment and the impoverishment of most of their southern flank in the Eurozone crisis; the central European states are in open revolt over attempts to impose multiculturalism from the centre, and most are creeping at varying speeds towards illiberalism; their north-western flank is about to fall off completely; and anywhere between 35% and 45% of the French electorate are going to vote for a neo-fascist as Head of State next Sunday. Goodness knows what comes next.
Trying to stitch together and then hold together a multinational federation is one Hell of a job. Notable past failures include the Soviet Union, Austria-Hungary and Yugoslavia. Keeping the UK on the road is hard enough and it has only four members, with a common language and centuries of common history, and a central Government willing to make extensive concessions. The EU, on the other hand, is a vast, polyglot agglomeration of national governments with competing national interests, in a constant state of tension with a central bureaucracy that is not only rigid but pitiless and deaf, and which seeks gradually to draw all the life from its members using a one-way ratchet of centralisation.
The odds on the project ending well are not good.
It is my firm belief that history will show Brexit to be the lightest, most moderate and most reasoned of the 'populist' movements of the early 21st Century, certainly when compared to Trump, Wilders, Le Pen and their equivalents elsewhere in Europe. In fact, it may eventually not even be placed in the same camp. But I think all of these stories have a long way to run yet.
I very much hope you are feeling better.
Surely if the election is to be a Brexit election as May announced, then we do need to know what form of Brexit she wants. The EU27 have been admirably open about their position.
They do want to be in the economic union that provides jobs and cheap goods.
But, if that's not on offer, they prefer a clean break with a view to renegotiating the best trading relationship possible from the outside.
We were told both sides of the story Scott - you seem to be forgetting that the 'lies' were all debunked. So either people voted for other reasons, or they are so stupid they didn't understand the truth when told, and so you cannot rely on their opinion of how they want other things, since they literally don't know the difference between truth and lie.
The wailing and gnashing of teeth will be audible across the channel. In Brussels.
But carry on, EU. Nothing to see here.
It gets her off the hook in so many ways, and would also create a bond of trust between her and the people that would transcend party politics.
The polls show public support for the single market and the customs union.
It's not me you're mad at
I can take trolling as good as anyone but babies and children do catch a nerve
best wishes
Hypocritical garbage, and I'm one would be happy to make the concessions necessary for single market access, I think soft brexit is sellable to the public, if not the Tory party or the EU (who as you have been among those gleeful to point out, are interested in punishment)
Are these blighters trying to wreck my betting position?
Only 15 per cent of the 1,633 respondents went for a softer option, saying the UK should concede some immigration controls to Brussels in order to secure the best possible trading links with the remaining 27 EU member states.
One in ten said Mrs May should seek to remain as close to the EU as possible with some form of associate membership, 23 per cent thought Britain should remain in the bloc despite last summer’s Brexit vote and 13 per cent were not sure what sort of departure the UK should pursue.'
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/754887/Theresa-May-plans-YouGov-poll-soft-hard-Brexit-immigration-EU-referendum
However what is clear is current Tory and UKIP voters want to leave the single market to control free movement and reduce contributions to Brussels and Labour, LD and SNP voters want to stay in the single market. So if the single market is a priority for you vote for one of the latter parties, it is not that difficult
The EU need to take a good look at themselves, and no more so than Merkel and Juncker's in their dealing with David Cameron. Had they tweaked freedom of movement we would most probably have voted remain.
It is rather funny seeing life's winners realise that sometimes things don't go their way...
Perhaps a promise that Caroline Lucas would be environment secretary in the Progressive Alliance Cabinet would do the trick.
If referendum II happened and I was running the Brexit II campaign, I'd put her in all the ads.
The woman is toxic - the very worst elements of smugness, elitism, arrogance and hypocrisy, all wrapped up in someone who's happy to play the courts and institutions of the country for political gain.
She's a truly despicable, self-serving cretin. Leavers should work together to give her as much airtime as possible.