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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This month’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the Tories

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Marcus Fysh selected for the Conservatives in Yeovil by open primary:

    https://twitter.com/SomersetMatters/status/362312936275976194
  • Ave_it said:

    Where is SeanT?

    He is AlbionTillIDie, but as he's cunningly wearing a burqa you can't tell.

    Hows retirement going Nick Palmer XMP?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Grandiose - Yes, you are right that YouGov shows the Labour share falling back a bit, but I'm not sure that is as clear in the other pollsters.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    Of course next year will be pb's 10th anniversary. I trust Mike is already planning the festivities....
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Where is SeanT?

    He is AlbionTillIDie, but as he's cunningly wearing a burqa you can't tell.

    Hello Nick - how are the cats?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    SMukesh said:

    A poll showing them behind by 3 points and they are celebrating-these Tories have low expectations,haven`t they?

    An improvement on 10 point deficits, I think.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SMukesh said:

    A poll showing them behind by 3 points and they are celebrating-these Tories have low expectations,haven`t they?

    Same can be said about your lot,3 points ahead against a coalition doing unpopular things and labour only real opposition.

    Wow,your happy with that = lol

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Sun is due to go behind a paywall soon. Is this part of the positioning?

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/362318967999721472/photo/1
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    edited July 2013
    surbiton said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Putting these figures into the UKPR seat calculator gives the following:

    Lab: 341 seats [+83]
    Con: 262 seats [-44]
    LD: 21 seats [-36]

    Labour would be just 15 seats over the winning post of 326.

    I did exactly the same and got a Labour majority of 32 !!

    262, 341, 21, 8, 18
    Well, precisely — you get the majority by doubling the number of seats over the winning margin plus two. The reason is that for every seat a party goes over the winning post, the opposition obviously loses a seat.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    "The latest ComRes phone poll for the Independent is out and is in line with the trends we’ve been seeing over the past weeks: the Ukip decline and the Tory recovery."

    Obviously because the swivel-eyed loons aren't running around like headless chickens like they were at the May local elections and Eastleigh.

    :)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    JohnO said:

    Of course next year will be pb's 10th anniversary. I trust Mike is already planning the festivities....

    Looking forward to it! Hope IOS and Chilon come so we can see that they are different!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    What's that Sun front page all about then ?

    Also - polls are converging.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,497
    Mr. Johnno, point of order: 3 points up against one party of a coalition.

    The other day Libby Wiener of ITV News forgot that we don't have a Conservative Government.

    That's as ridiculous as confusing the Battles of Issus and Ipsus.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    SMukesh said:

    A poll showing them behind by 3 points and they are celebrating-these Tories have low expectations,haven`t they?

    If I thought Labour's lead was properly three points only, I would really be celebrating. But I think this is at the smaller end.

    Still, I don't understand your indignation. The polling gap has narrowed. The Tories are in a better place than where they were, now by some way. 10pts down to perhaps 5 or 6pts. That is a significant improvement, and something that any party would be happy with.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    The ComRes from July 08 had the Tories with a 22% lead

    Tories 46

    Lab 24

    Ld 18

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    I always think the majority figure is a bit misleading because it's twice the number of seats over the winning margin.

    For example in 1983 the winning post was 326 (which it isn't always of course) and the Tories got 397 seats.

    So they were 71 seats over the winning post which gets turned into a majority of 144.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited July 2013
    SMukesh said:

    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.

    Yeah, feel free to chillax. Put your feet up - no point doing all that tedious canvassing and campaigning stuff when disgruntled LibDems are falling over themselves to vote for you.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Ave_it said:

    Hope IOS and Chilon come so we can see that they are different!

    Isnt IOS just Chilon's drunken online persona?

    (Just kidding IOS!)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003

    The nicest thing I have seen while lurking was your picture at the awards ceremony Plato

    Good Idea, Albion (welcome back!):

    Plato on a bank-note?

    :)
  • One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    @RihardN

    Atleast we have people to canvas,you haven`t got any!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Mr. Johnno, point of order: 3 points up against one party of a coalition.

    The other day Libby Wiener of ITV News forgot that we don't have a Conservative Government.

    That's as ridiculous as confusing the Battles of Issus and Ipsus.

    True mr dancer,I will correct myself next time ;-)

  • Thanks Sunil, how are the trains?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,497
    Mr. SMukesh, Tigranes the Great was relaxed when he saw Lucullus approach prior to Tigranocerta.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    SMukesh said:

    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.

    Yeah, feel free to chillax. Put your feet up - no point doing all that tedious canvassing and campaigning stuff when disgruntled LibDems are falling over themselves to vote for you.
    Do Tories even know how to canvass ? Or, do you employ a company to canvas for you ? The Tory organisation is so pathetic. Half of them look as if they are dead...oh, they are dead !!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534

    One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.

    If Labour is the largest party in Parliament I am sure the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, regardless of the public vote percentages.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,497
    Anyway, time for me to go. Hope we see Mr. Albion and Mr. Ave It on a regular basis again.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Anyway, time for me to go. Hope we see Mr. Albion and Mr. Ave It on a regular basis again.

    I hope so too!

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Neil - Chilon was chillingly right about the defenestration of Alan Johnson.

    If Chilon ever returns to pen an article predicting that Ed M is toast, make sure you've got plenty of marmalade in the cupboard.
  • RobD said:

    One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.

    If Labour is the largest party in Parliament I am sure the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, regardless of the public vote percentages.
    Well you would be wrong then.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003

    Thanks Sunil, how are the trains?


    Oh good thanks, we just had Tube 150 gala on the Epping Ongar Railway last month, and a Real Ale Weekend a couple of weeks back too!
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    surbiton said:

    SMukesh said:

    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.

    Yeah, feel free to chillax. Put your feet up - no point doing all that tedious canvassing and campaigning stuff when disgruntled LibDems are falling over themselves to vote for you.
    Do Tories even know how to canvass ? Or, do you employ a company to canvas for you ? The Tory organisation is so pathetic. Half of them look as if they are dead...oh, they are dead !!
    That's why we beat the cr@p out of you (and the LibDems) at last Thursday's Kingston by-election. Or perhaps it was your own delightful approach to telling?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Ann Myatt selected as Conservative candidate for Westmorland & Lonsdale:

    https://twitter.com/RicHolden/status/361835532042510336
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534

    RobD said:

    One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.

    If Labour is the largest party in Parliament I am sure the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, regardless of the public vote percentages.
    Well you would be wrong then.
    Well for a start even if the Tories were 1% ahead, Labour might squeak a majority ;-)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003

    Mr. Johnno, point of order: 3 points up against one party of a coalition.

    The other day Libby Wiener of ITV News forgot that we don't have a Conservative Government.

    That's as ridiculous as confusing the Battles of Issus and Ipsus.

    Good point, Mr. Dancer!

    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Coalition 44%
    Labour 37%
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @RichardNabavi

    Yes, I suspect Chilon's sources are a bit better than IOS'. You'd never get Chilon ramping Labour efforts in Cornwall ;)
  • Ave_it said:

    Anyway, time for me to go. Hope we see Mr. Albion and Mr. Ave It on a regular basis again.

    I hope so too!

    You will do. Although I am in a different league (of the Premier kind) to Ave It now so can no longer discuss Watford related matters with him.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.

    If Labour is the largest party in Parliament I am sure the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, regardless of the public vote percentages.
    Well you would be wrong then.
    Well for a start even if the Tories were 1% ahead, Labour might squeak a majority ;-)
    Incumbency, incumbency, incumbency.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200

    One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.

    That would only be true if the number of Con + LD seats = 326+.

    If it's less than 326 and Lab + LD > Con + LD, the LDs would be forced to consider a coalition with Labour even if Lab had less votes than Con.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    @Neil - Never, ever unterestimate the mystical psephological power of IoS's algorithms.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The most important achievement for the Tories in this parliament was to throw out Clegg's half-baked idea of House of Lords reform.

    Liberals promptly retaliated by scuppering the boundary review changes !
  • tim said:

    One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.

    They wouldn't be able to

    37/36/17 would give the Tories about 275, LDs high thirties and Labour 310-15.
    Ithe LDs would either go into govt with Labour or there would be a Labour minority govt followed by another election fairly soon
    Farmy farm farm. Incumbency, incumbency, incumbency.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    tim said:


    37/36/17 would give the Tories about 275, LDs high thirties and Labour 310-15.

    Let's all have a quick laugh at the chance the LDs score 17%.. titter ;-)
  • Andy_JS said:

    One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.

    That would only be true if the number of Con + LD seats = 326+.

    If it's less than 326 and Lab + LD > Con + LD, the LDs would be forced to consider a coalition with Labour even if Lab had less votes than Con.
    Need I say it - incumbency, incumbency, incumbency. The seat calculators do not factor this in.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    SMukesh said:

    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.

    Yeah, feel free to chillax. Put your feet up - no point doing all that tedious canvassing and campaigning stuff when disgruntled LibDems are falling over themselves to vote for you.
    Do Tories even know how to canvass ? Or, do you employ a company to canvas for you ? The Tory organisation is so pathetic. Half of them look as if they are dead...oh, they are dead !!
    That's why we beat the cr@p out of you (and the LibDems) at last Thursday's Kingston by-election. Or perhaps it was your own delightful approach to telling?
    We doubled our votes. What did you do ?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    RobD said:

    One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.

    If Labour is the largest party in Parliament I am sure the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, regardless of the public vote percentages.

    There are absolutely no guarantees what would happen in the event of hung parliament even assuming the toxic Clegg is still lib dem leader at the election.

    Anyone speaking with certainty of a tory or labour coalition had better think again.
    It won't just be the numbers this time that primarily decides what happens.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    edited July 2013
    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    SMukesh said:

    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.

    Yeah, feel free to chillax. Put your feet up - no point doing all that tedious canvassing and campaigning stuff when disgruntled LibDems are falling over themselves to vote for you.
    Do Tories even know how to canvass ? Or, do you employ a company to canvas for you ? The Tory organisation is so pathetic. Half of them look as if they are dead...oh, they are dead !!
    That's why we beat the cr@p out of you (and the LibDems) at last Thursday's Kingston by-election. Or perhaps it was your own delightful approach to telling?
    We doubled our votes. What did you do ?
    Won the seat by a big majority
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This isn't a headline I'd expected - Humpy is a rightie?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/10211915/John-Humphrys-a-victim-of-BBC-Left-wing-bias.html

    John Humphrys 'a victim of BBC Left-wing bias’

    The BBC has been accused of “Left-wing bias” by a minister after a senior presenter was criticised by the corporation’s Trust over a documentary about welfare reform that was broadly sympathetic to the Government position.
  • Anyway, need to hit the hay before making my personal contribution to the growing GDP tomorrow. And making a bit more of a positive contribution than swapping B&H & cans of Carling for dole cheques from Scousers.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Plato

    Isnt is amazing that broadcasting a programme accused of towing the Coalition government's line on benefits results in accusations of left-wing bias?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    A couple of months ago I thought (and wrote IIRC) that the polls would have stabilized until the end of the year with Conservatives closing the gap from 2014 onwards. However, it looks as it is happening earlier. So it is certainly happening faster. I don't know if the overall movement will be biggerr too because I didn't tried to predict how much the movement towards Con could have been in 2014. So are we seeing now what I believed it would have happened in 2014 or will it be the same effect in 2014 to be added to the one currently in action?

    I fear I have written too long sentences without any sense.

    I wouldn't change my expectation that No Overall Majority is the likely outcome. However, at the time I was open to the idea of Labour being the largest party. I am much more concerned now about their situation. And I guess I have had enough first hand experience of centre-left parties losing GEs here!
    ..........

    Vernon Coaker has been put in charge of the work in Labour held marginals.

    ........
    Don't forget there will be the Tory Euro selection count tomorrow! And Labour lists on Friday.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @surbiton

    'Do Tories even know how to canvass ? Or, do you employ a company to canvas for you ? The Tory organisation is so pathetic. Half of them look as if they are dead...oh, they are dead !!'

    You better pray that the Tories don't get their canvassing act together.

    Nearly two years to the next election,cuts,tax increases,austerity,NHS in the news and Labour manages a whopping 3% poll lead.

    Truly awesome.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Andy_JS said:

    One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.

    That would only be true if the number of Con + LD seats = 326+.

    If it's less than 326 and Lab + LD > Con + LD, the LDs would be forced to consider a coalition with Labour even if Lab had less votes than Con.
    Need I say it - incumbency, incumbency, incumbency. The seat calculators do not factor this in.
    Need I say it again - boundary changes, boundary changes, boundary changes.

    Oops, it didn't happen ! Dave, what have you done ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277

    A couple of months ago I thought (and wrote IIRC) that the polls would have stabilized until the end of the year with Conservatives closing the gap from 2014 onwards. However, it looks as it is happening earlier. So it is certainly happening faster. I don't know if the overall movement will be biggerr too because I didn't tried to predict how much the movement towards Con could have been in 2014. So are we seeing now what I believed it would have happened in 2014 or will it be the same effect in 2014 to be added to the one currently in action?

    I fear I have written too long sentences without any sense.

    I wouldn't change my expectation that No Overall Majority is the likely outcome. However, at the time I was open to the idea of Labour being the largest party. I am much more concerned now about their situation. And I guess I have had enough first hand experience of centre-left parties losing GEs here!
    ..........

    Vernon Coaker has been put in charge of the work in Labour held marginals.

    ........
    Don't forget there will be the Tory Euro selection count tomorrow! And Labour lists on Friday.

    Long or short, your posts and sentences are wonderful.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    edited July 2013
    @tim - you'd be better advised to have a quiet word with your comrade from the next door constituency to me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    Neil said:

    @Plato

    Isnt is amazing that broadcasting a programme accused of towing the Coalition government's line on benefits results in accusations of left-wing bias?

    I think they were accusing the Trust of left wing bias, in its criticism of the program, as opposed to the program itself.
  • surbiton said:

    Andy_JS said:

    One thing most lefties have missed is that if Conservatives win the popular vote the Lib Dems would form a coalition with them, so they only need to be 1% ahead of Labour to stay in government. The often referred to 7% lead for Conservatives to gain a majority on their own is irrelevant if the coalition is working.

    That would only be true if the number of Con + LD seats = 326+.

    If it's less than 326 and Lab + LD > Con + LD, the LDs would be forced to consider a coalition with Labour even if Lab had less votes than Con.
    Need I say it - incumbency, incumbency, incumbency. The seat calculators do not factor this in.
    Need I say it again - boundary changes, boundary changes, boundary changes.

    Oops, it didn't happen ! Dave, what have you done ?
    Did Labour win the last election with the current boundaries? I don't get why they will automatically win because the boundaries are unchanged?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RobD said:

    Neil said:

    @Plato

    Isnt is amazing that broadcasting a programme accused of towing the Coalition government's line on benefits results in accusations of left-wing bias?

    I think they were accusing the Trust of left wing bias, in its criticism of the program, as opposed to the program itself.
    I'm sure they were. Almost anything can justify BBC-bias headlines!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,456
    edited July 2013
    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Where is SeanT?

    He is AlbionTillIDie, but as he's cunningly wearing a burqa you can't tell.

    Hello Nick - how are the cats?

    Hello Ave It, as fond of cats as ever, though currently our lifestyle doesn't make them possible. In your absence plato has gone hard tory and tim has gone hard anti-cat, so I'm the unifying figure that makes pb so harmonious. It's good to see you back!

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2013
    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    SMukesh said:

    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.

    Yeah, feel free to chillax. Put your feet up - no point doing all that tedious canvassing and campaigning stuff when disgruntled LibDems are falling over themselves to vote for you.
    Do Tories even know how to canvass ? Or, do you employ a company to canvas for you ? The Tory organisation is so pathetic. Half of them look as if they are dead...oh, they are dead !!
    That's why we beat the cr@p out of you (and the LibDems) at last Thursday's Kingston by-election. Or perhaps it was your own delightful approach to telling?
    We doubled our votes. What did you do ?
    Won the seat by a big majority
    Get this, The by election was caused by the Leader of the Council indulging in funny behaviour and you are the main and only opposition party and you failed to increase your percentage share.

    Pathetic !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    Tempers getting frayed because of the poll? ;)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,456
    Plato said:

    This isn't a headline I'd expected - Humpy is a rightie?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/10211915/John-Humphrys-a-victim-of-BBC-Left-wing-bias.html

    John Humphrys 'a victim of BBC Left-wing bias’

    The BBC has been accused of “Left-wing bias” by a minister after a senior presenter was criticised by the corporation’s Trust over a documentary about welfare reform that was broadly sympathetic to the Government position.

    I've always thought he was right-wing, in an old-fogey Private Eye sort of way (the Eye has always seemed inherently reactionary to me, because they undermine a belief in anything). If you thought he was left-wing, perhaps he's been quite good in annoying us both?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RobD said:

    Tempers getting frayed because of the poll? ;)

    It appears so - and its still Labour a speck ahead - God knows what it'll be like when the Tories pull ahead which seems more than likely at the mo...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    SMukesh said:

    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.

    Yeah, feel free to chillax. Put your feet up - no point doing all that tedious canvassing and campaigning stuff when disgruntled LibDems are falling over themselves to vote for you.
    Do Tories even know how to canvass ? Or, do you employ a company to canvas for you ? The Tory organisation is so pathetic. Half of them look as if they are dead...oh, they are dead !!
    That's why we beat the cr@p out of you (and the LibDems) at last Thursday's Kingston by-election. Or perhaps it was your own delightful approach to telling?
    We doubled our votes. What did you do ?
    Won the seat by a big majority
    Get this, The by election was caused by the Leader of the Council indulging in funny behaviour and you are the main and only opposition party and you failed to increase your percentage share.

    Pathetic !
    Yet the Tories still won the seat! Remember FPTP, its seats not votes that count!
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    @Surbiton - Ooh, a veritable tantrum, much stamping of booties. We gained the seat, you were in third place. Tough titty and all that.

    I guess you're drunk though it's only Tuesday.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Yet the Tories still won the seat! Remember FPTP, its seats not votes that count!

    Surbiton is just feeling guilty because his superb telling cost the Lib Dems enough votes to hand the seat to the Tories.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Where is SeanT?

    He is AlbionTillIDie, but as he's cunningly wearing a burqa you can't tell.

    Hello Nick - how are the cats?

    Hello Ave It, as fond of cats as ever, though currently our lifestyle doesn't make them possible. In your absence plato has gone hard tory and tim has gone hard anti-cat, so I'm the unifying figure that makes pb so harmonious. It's good to see you back!

    Hello Nick - good to see you are still here. Are we allowed to refer to tim and plato in the same sentence?!

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited July 2013
    Some nice theme music for my fellow pb labourites ;-) help you relax ;-)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvCI-gNK_y4
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    SMukesh said:

    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.

    Yeah, feel free to chillax. Put your feet up - no point doing all that tedious canvassing and campaigning stuff when disgruntled LibDems are falling over themselves to vote for you.
    Do Tories even know how to canvass ? Or, do you employ a company to canvas for you ? The Tory organisation is so pathetic. Half of them look as if they are dead...oh, they are dead !!
    That's why we beat the cr@p out of you (and the LibDems) at last Thursday's Kingston by-election. Or perhaps it was your own delightful approach to telling?
    We doubled our votes. What did you do ?
    Won the seat by a big majority
    Get this, The by election was caused by the Leader of the Council indulging in funny behaviour and you are the main and only opposition party and you failed to increase your percentage share.

    Pathetic !
    Yet the Tories still won the seat! Remember FPTP, its seats not votes that count!
    I remember it well as long as you do it in 2015. I would not even be surprised if the Tories start moving towards AV after that. They might even win in votes !
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    tim said:

    What does a fight in Surrey look like, do they threaten each others conifers with nail clippers?

    Have you worked out the name of your MP yet, tim?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    Some nice theme music for my fellow pb labourites ;-) help you relax ;-)



  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    SMukesh said:

    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.

    Yeah, feel free to chillax. Put your feet up - no point doing all that tedious canvassing and campaigning stuff when disgruntled LibDems are falling over themselves to vote for you.
    Do Tories even know how to canvass ? Or, do you employ a company to canvas for you ? The Tory organisation is so pathetic. Half of them look as if they are dead...oh, they are dead !!
    That's why we beat the cr@p out of you (and the LibDems) at last Thursday's Kingston by-election. Or perhaps it was your own delightful approach to telling?
    We doubled our votes. What did you do ?
    Won the seat by a big majority
    Get this, The by election was caused by the Leader of the Council indulging in funny behaviour and you are the main and only opposition party and you failed to increase your percentage share.

    Pathetic !
    Yet the Tories still won the seat! Remember FPTP, its seats not votes that count!
    Remember, Sunil, what really counts in maintaining good standards of grammar throughout.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    In the new poll, this cat has switched from UKIP to Con...

    http://images6.fanpop.com/image/photos/32500000/Black-Cat-random-32500173-1280-1024.jpg
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    SMukesh said:

    @Tyke

    With FTPT,Labour can afford to relax.You can try the hell you want,you aren`t getting a majority.If you din`t when Labour were 29%,you aren`t getting it when we are 35% atleast.

    Yeah, feel free to chillax. Put your feet up - no point doing all that tedious canvassing and campaigning stuff when disgruntled LibDems are falling over themselves to vote for you.
    Do Tories even know how to canvass ? Or, do you employ a company to canvas for you ? The Tory organisation is so pathetic. Half of them look as if they are dead...oh, they are dead !!
    That's why we beat the cr@p out of you (and the LibDems) at last Thursday's Kingston by-election. Or perhaps it was your own delightful approach to telling?
    We doubled our votes. What did you do ?
    Won the seat by a big majority.
    Don't think the Tories can rely on facing a seat vacated due to child porn every day of the week.
    Not sure anyone should be drawing too many conclusions from that one
    I missed that. What exactly happened?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    edited July 2013
    Mick_Pork said:



    I missed that. What exactly happened?

    The LD incumbent was arrested for allegedly having kiddie porn on his computer.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Neil said:


    Yet the Tories still won the seat! Remember FPTP, its seats not votes that count!

    Surbiton is just feeling guilty because his superb telling cost the Lib Dems enough votes to hand the seat to the Tories.
    The Tories will win control of K&S in 2014. It might be the only one they gain in London. We could win 6 seats thus depriving the Tory bed-fellows their council.

    Davey should be safe though. At least, in 2015 !!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,211
    For those who think Stafford is/was a non-story:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-23508894
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    RobD said:

    Mick_Pork said:



    I missed that. What exactly happened?

    The LD incumbent had kiddie porn on his computer.
    Lordy! I'll take a wild guess that just might have been a wee bit of a factor then.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    RobD said:

    Mick_Pork said:



    I missed that. What exactly happened?

    The LD incumbent had kiddie porn on his computer.
    Careful. Allegedly. I'm not aware he has pleaded guilty.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    After every Labour selection, the routine is having the new PPC posing with a Labour placard surrounded by CLP members...so we have a good gallery of the average activist nowadays...

    Itchen
    http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/resources/images/2541387.jpg?type=articleLandscape

    ToriesItchen4Rowenna (© Neil)

    It is the only seat Labour is allowed to gain in 2015!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    edited July 2013
    JohnO said:


    Careful. Allegedly. I'm not aware he has pleaded guilty.

    "allegedly".. said with great emphasis a la Ian Hislop ;)

    Thanks though, I have edited the post to be more factually accurate.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    What did Toby Young do on Newsnight, just the normal Toby does thick act? because he seems to be all over Twitter

    BBC Newsnight @BBCNewsnight

    .@toadmeister: I "committed the sin of noticing" a female MP's cleavage and tweeting about it #newsnight

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim

    It was so good it is worth catching on iplayer. Skip past the boring interview with the woman from twitter and watch poor Toby ... I wont spoil it, enjoy.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Avery

    Itchen is already Labour. Not by much. She's trying to succeed John Denham. You can allow Labour not to lose it though
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Has someone been tweeting from the wrong account?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BQdGueQCQAEmQ41.jpg:large
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    PoliticsHome @politicshome

    .@stellacreasy to @Toadmeister "Nobody talking about stopping u making comments on MPs’ tits – really hope you'd stop doing that on ur own

    Newsnight sounded great,have I missed something ;-)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Plato said:

    This isn't a headline I'd expected - Humpy is a rightie?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/10211915/John-Humphrys-a-victim-of-BBC-Left-wing-bias.html

    John Humphrys 'a victim of BBC Left-wing bias’

    The BBC has been accused of “Left-wing bias” by a minister after a senior presenter was criticised by the corporation’s Trust over a documentary about welfare reform that was broadly sympathetic to the Government position.

    I've always thought he was right-wing, in an old-fogey Private Eye sort of way (the Eye has always seemed inherently reactionary to me, because they undermine a belief in anything). If you thought he was left-wing, perhaps he's been quite good in annoying us both?

    Humphrys is right wing. I thought that was quite well known. So is Paxman !
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    @tim Thanks for the link. Bit suprised it wasn't a bigger story though maybe it was and I just missed it.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    tim said:

    What did Toby Young do on Newsnight, just the normal Toby does thick act? because he seems to be all over Twitter

    Him v Stella on the twitter thing. He was wrong about the facebook reporting policy according to a RT from facebook.

    OT had a Covent Garden/Leicester Square and surrounds wander when up town today. Long time since I used to go to CG for vintage clothing from 'Flip'. Seems theatre is now mainly musicals and, sorry, but WTF is THIS???

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PODEw64vy1A#at=24
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    For our cat lovers - I have a cat called Richard Parker...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BQdExjbCAAQVkUb.jpg:large
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    Wiener also claimed it was inconsistent for Osborne to state the recession had nothing to do with him but the recovery was his.

    Mr. Johnno, point of order: 3 points up against one party of a coalition.

    The other day Libby Wiener of ITV News forgot that we don't have a Conservative Government.

    That's as ridiculous as confusing the Battles of Issus and Ipsus.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    fitalass said:

    Wiener also claimed it was inconsistent for Osborne to state the recession had nothing to do with him but the recovery was his.

    Mr. Johnno, point of order: 3 points up against one party of a coalition.

    The other day Libby Wiener of ITV News forgot that we don't have a Conservative Government.

    That's as ridiculous as confusing the Battles of Issus and Ipsus.

    I feel terribly sorry for Wiener's wife. She's been totally humiliated - her body language in recent pix is just dreadful - she's crushed.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    @Avery

    Itchen is already Labour. Not by much. She's trying to succeed John Denham. You can allow Labour not to lose it though

    Even better, Andrea.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim

    My personal highlight was when, out of nowhere, Toby claimed that Stella wanted to stop men abusing women but was fine with women abusing men.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    @Plato

    That's Libby Wiener on ITV :)
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Ern Malley ‏@loveandgarbage 28m

    Sadly, the use of Toby Young as a typical twitter user mean legitimate arguments that could be presented are skewed by a belligerent buffoon

    Alan Gibbons ‏@mygibbo 24m

    Stella Creasey's humiliation of Toby Young on Newsnight one of the most comprehensive acts of demolition since the Berlin Wall fell.
    LOL

    Poor old Toby. Maybe he should switch to tweeting about cats. ;^ )
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2013
    Plato said:

    fitalass said:

    Wiener also claimed it was inconsistent for Osborne to state the recession had nothing to do with him but the recovery was his.

    Mr. Johnno, point of order: 3 points up against one party of a coalition.

    The other day Libby Wiener of ITV News forgot that we don't have a Conservative Government.

    That's as ridiculous as confusing the Battles of Issus and Ipsus.

    I feel terribly sorry for Wiener's wife. She's been totally humiliated - her body language in recent pix is just dreadful - she's crushed.
    Is this a new story ? Are we getting confused between Huma Abedin and Libby Weiner ?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,580

    Plato said:



    I've always thought he was right-wing

    Yes, Humpries has dropped clues to his reactionary tendencies over the years. For example, when he said that he'd never met an actual miner who bemoaned the pit closures. (They appreciated what filthy and unhealthy work it was and didn't want to put their offspring through it. (Unlike the metropolitan, educated Labour Party fops, of course, who romanticise.)
This discussion has been closed.