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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This month’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the Tories

SystemSystem Posts: 12,183
edited July 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This month’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the Tories closing the gap to just 3%

The latest ComRes phone poll for the Independent is out and is in line with the trends we’ve been seeing over the past weeks: the Ukip decline and the Tory recovery. The figures and changes on last month are in the chart above.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited July 2013
    That ICM looks less of an outlier now.

    I said before in 2012 Ed Miliband reminded me of Hannibal at Cannae.

    Looks like come 2015 he's going to be like Hannibal at Zama, with Cameron as Scipio.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited July 2013
    Premature release on pb... albeit only a minute

    Time for that latest Dan Hodges revised from Ed is Crap to Ed is Ded (politically)

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100228858/theyre-coming-to-get-you-ed-and-it-wont-be-the-usual-suspects/
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mike broke the embargo by a minute !!

    For shame Smithson ....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    But another poll with Labour in the 36-39 range.

    That's very consistent.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yes!!!

    Con maj nailed on!!!
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    FPT (for tim) 100% of illegal immigrants commit a crime
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Astonishing!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    The 2010 Lib Dems are sticking to Labour like a cold sore.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Premature release on pb... albeit only a minute

    That way its a nailed on PB exclusive ;)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tick tock Ed ....

    Tick tock ....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Huzzah! But Tories gain from UKIP and others?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Oh and sleazy broken UKIP on the slide
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Ave_it

    And which party will win Watford?!?! ;)
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited July 2013
    Labour lead of three points. UKIP on four times that. Conservatives down 2% on their GE performance, Lab up 8. Hohum.

    I'm adjusting my headline figure to 5 to 6 points.

    YouGov five-poll average (7, 6, 6, 4, 7) => 6.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Ave_it said:

    Yes!!!

    Con maj nailed on!!!

    Hi Ave_it! Missed you last night but good to see you posting again!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    So ICM rubbishers - how are you feeling this evening?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    Pretty consistent with the other polls - the Tories are clearly recovering the UKIP froth for now, but Labour's vote is unchanged, as is the LibDem preference for Labour. It's reasonable to guess that the Tory jump includes former UKIP people who are now officially don't know but admit to preferring the Tories.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Hello Sunil - hope you are well!

    Conservative!!!!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Neil said:

    @Ave_it

    And which party will win Watford?!?! ;)

    The top party super blues!

    Labour = David Connolly!

  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    How is it possible for Labour only to be 3 points ahead of the Toffs party run by a coward, an inumerate Chancellor and a Health Secretary who wants to destroy the NHS? When they have Milliband and Balls in control..................oh.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    It's only a matter of time before the LDs recover towards 20-25 % and Ed M's vacuous Labour gets found out and collapses.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    With acknowledgement and thanks to Dan Hodges and MonikerdiCanio, this clip needs a second outing:

    http://youtube.com/watch?v=fuWkcKbBQkg
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    AlbionTilIDie said:

    How is it possible for Labour only to be 3 points ahead of the Toffs party run by a coward, an inumerate Chancellor and a Health Secretary who wants to destroy the NHS? When they have Milliband and Balls in control..................oh.

    It's incredible, isn't it? Great to see you posting again.
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Thanks Plato, nice to be back. Have been busy but have been lurking.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    In June the average Labour lead with the phone pollsters was 5.66.

    This month it is 4.66
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Ave_it said:



    Labour = David Connolly!

    Labour wouldnt miss a penalty that would have helped the Republic of Ireland through to a world cup quarter final!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,711
    edited July 2013
    Kevan Jones reselected for Labour in North Durham:

    https://twitter.com/Heather_Liddle/status/362312964591730689

    Bridget Phillipson reselected for Labour in Houghton & Sunderland South:

    https://twitter.com/bphillipsonMP/status/362275417798885376

    Pat Glass reselected for Labour in North West Durham:

    https://twitter.com/PatGlassMP/status/362200303908560897
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    *crying with laughter* but with a bad couple of days headlines,tories could fall back in the next future polls
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In June the average Labour lead with the phone pollsters was 5.66.

    This month it is 4.66

    Nibble nibble nibble...
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Hi tim. Source for BNP liter or is that just a lying smear?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Question. Are the 2010 LDs now voting Labour LDs in 2005, or Labour, or something else (do we know)?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Plato said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In June the average Labour lead with the phone pollsters was 5.66.

    This month it is 4.66

    Nibble nibble nibble...
    An hour back Plato referred to them as Comedy Res.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh and sleazy broken UKIP on the slide

    But they are still ahead of the sleazy, broken LibDems :)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Do we have a VI subsample from the North East?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    tim said:

    AlbionTilIDie said:

    Hi tim. Source for BNP liter or is that just a lying smear?

    ChrisA did us all a big favour exposing what you are
    @tim

    tim you still haven't told us how diverse your local area is!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh and sleazy broken UKIP on the slide

    But they are still ahead of the sleazy, broken LibDems :)
    Cross over soon
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,689
    This is starting to look dangerous for Labour. Miliband is just treading water with nothing to say. He needs a bold and radical policy announcement that will gain loads of attention and possibly drive a wedge between Cameron and Boris. I suggest that Ed pledges a nationwide amnesty for all illegal immigrants starting the day Labour takes office. It's worth a try.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    surbiton said:

    Plato said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In June the average Labour lead with the phone pollsters was 5.66.

    This month it is 4.66

    Nibble nibble nibble...
    An hour back Plato referred to them as Comedy Res.
    Dearie me Mr Surbiton, I said that was to do with their loaded questions not VI - do keep up.

    Aren't you worried that your lead is now just 3% or do you want to call them Comedy Res now?
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Hi tim. Source for "exposing what you are" or is that just (another) lying smear?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it GE forecast!

    CON 40
    LAB 30
    LD 15
    Other 15

    Con maj 60!!!!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    surbiton said:

    Plato said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In June the average Labour lead with the phone pollsters was 5.66.

    This month it is 4.66

    Nibble nibble nibble...
    An hour back Plato referred to them as Comedy Res.
    Who's laughing now, Surby?

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That ICM looks less of an outlier now.

    Plato said:

    So ICM rubbishers - how are you feeling this evening?

    Don't be ridiculous, the ICM poll still looks like an outlier. It showed a tied race when everyone else showed a Labour lead of 6-9 points. The fact that the tend moves towards an outlier doesn't stop it from being an outlier: what if the ICM poll had showed a Tory lead of 20%?! The point of VI polls is to show what the public are thinking right now, not to guess the future. ICM was an outlier for when it was conducted, the fact that it wouldn't look like an outlier now doesn't mean anything.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Stark_Dawning said:

    I suggest that Ed pledges a nationwide amnesty for all illegal immigrants starting the day Labour takes office.

    God,that would give me a dilemma about who to vote for in a GE for the first time in my life!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Plato - I stroked a beautiful grey cat earlier today - it mewed at me and was very nice!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    tim said:

    AlbionTilIDie said:

    How is it possible for Labour only to be 3 points ahead of the Toffs party run by a coward, an inumerate Chancellor and a Health Secretary who wants to destroy the NHS? When they have Milliband and Balls in control..................oh.

    Here comes the BNP liter who invents Mosques running immigration scams which turn out to be Sikh Gurdwaras advertising community groups.

    Blimey is it that bad a poll for Labour?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Ave_it said:

    Ave it GE forecast!

    CON 40
    LAB 30
    LD 15
    Other 15

    Con maj 60!!!!

    Ave_it shocks with understatement.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Welcome back, Mr. Albion.

    Obviously good for the blues, but little rises and falls happen all the time in polling.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Think timmy and his labour pals are getting worried!

    Remember 1986 lab 20% clear in polls, GE 87 con maj 100!!!!!
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    isam said:

    tim said:

    AlbionTilIDie said:

    How is it possible for Labour only to be 3 points ahead of the Toffs party run by a coward, an inumerate Chancellor and a Health Secretary who wants to destroy the NHS? When they have Milliband and Balls in control..................oh.

    Here comes the BNP liter who invents Mosques running immigration scams which turn out to be Sikh Gurdwaras advertising community groups.

    Blimey is it that bad a poll for Labour?
    Look! Squirrel!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ave_it said:

    Plato - I stroked a beautiful grey cat earlier today - it mewed at me and was very nice!

    My kinda man *hearts* Ave It
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,819
    I wouldn't be at all surprised if that 53/39 split for a Tory/Labour coalition partner for the LDs gets much more even as we approach 2015. The top-lead arrangements within the Conservative party make such a coalition much more manageable than a similar arrangement with Labour might be. Additionally the Tories have proved to be pretty decent coalition partners. Lots of ups and downs, but the basic arrangement has held firm.

    We may be treated to Ed trying to cosy up to a decidedly unreceptive LD audience. It'd be almost worth sacrificing a thumping Tory majority to see that!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:



    Ave_it shocks with understatement.

    Poor Ave_it hasnt been the same since they took his smilies away ;)

    And since David Connolly saw sense and left Watford.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970
    Welcome back Ave It!
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Nice to see both Albion and the great Ave_it resurrected! Just runnymede to go and it will be like old times.

    On the Comres poll, this is consistent with the Labour lead dropping that other polls have shown (YouGov show the lead dropping by over one point a month for the last three months). As NickP rightly points out, so far this seems to be mainly a drift back to the Tories rather than much of a fall-off in the Labour share. I have a hunch this is partly due to the gay marriage furore fading away.

    But the most interesting number to me is the relatively small preference amongst LibDem supporters for a coalition with Labour over a coalition with the Conservatives. 53% to 39% is significant, but maybe not an insuperable barrier if the arithmetic works out in such a way that that is the only real option.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Isam

    LOL
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    POLABWAS.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Nice to see you on as well, Mr. Ave It.

    How do you see the Ashes going?
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Thanks Mr Dancer. Have been a fan of yours while lurking.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Hello Richard hope you are well

    GE soon so I am back!

    Plus comedy election Scotland '14
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    RichardNabavi said:

    Nice to see both Albion and the great Ave_it resurrected! Just runnymede to go and it will be like old times.

    On the Comres poll, this is consistent with the Labour lead dropping that other polls have shown (YouGov show the lead dropping by over one point a month for the last three months). As NickP rightly points out, so far this seems to be mainly a drift back to the Tories rather than much of a fall-off in the Labour share. I have a hunch this is partly due to the gay marriage furore fading away.

    But the most interesting number to me is the relatively small preference amongst LibDem supporters for a coalition with Labour over a coalition with the Conservatives. 53% to 39% is significant, but maybe not an insuperable barrier if the arithmetic works out in such a way that that is the only real option.

    Don't forget ColinW.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    RobD said:

    Welcome back Ave It!

    TY!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Ave It = pb legend. Good to see you again.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:



    Ave_it shocks with understatement.

    Poor Ave_it hasnt been the same since they took his smilies away ;)

    And since David Connolly saw sense and left Watford.
    Neil = tim (would put smileys in but can't)!!!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Terrible poll for Labour ! Only a majority of 32 !!

    Long live FPTP [ sponsored by the Labour friendly Conservative Party ]
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:



    Ave_it shocks with understatement.

    Poor Ave_it hasnt been the same since they took his smilies away ;)

    And since David Connolly saw sense and left Watford.
    I have a hunch we'll see hunchman tonight.

    There is too much good cheer in the air.

    Even Roger has taken an early night.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:



    Ave_it shocks with understatement.

    Poor Ave_it hasnt been the same since they took his smilies away ;)

    And since David Connolly saw sense and left Watford.
    He's not been the same since Brendan Rodgers started managing a decent side

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @DrN - Please do not forget Alastair Viscount Matlock, who leads the pbTories in the House of Peers.
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Thanks Richard. It's nice to be remembered from pre-tim days. Still miss Gabble.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970
    surbiton said:


    Long live FPTP [ sponsored by the Labour friendly Conservative Party ]

    Yes, they support it despite it causing them a disadvantage at the polls. Surely better than supporting it simply for opportunistic reasons (which any change of heart will be viewed as).
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    surbiton said:

    Terrible poll for Labour ! Only a majority of 32 !!

    Long live FPTP [ sponsored by the Labour friendly Conservative Party ]

    It's terrible because that majority getting lower every week - lol

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:



    I have a hunch we'll see hunchman tonight.

    Not while the FTSE is Gemini and the S&P is in the aspect of Leo.

    Sorry hunchman, just kidding!
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited July 2013
    @RichardNabavi

    What's happened, if you look at YouGov at least, is that both Labour and the Tories lost votes to UKIP (or appeared to) and the Tories have regained some of theirs, but not Labour. With YouGov they're about 4% down on where they were.

    image
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,711
    edited July 2013
    Putting these figures into the UKPR seat calculator gives the following:

    Lab: 341 seats [+83]
    Con: 262 seats [-44]
    LD: 21 seats [-36]

    Labour would be just 15 seats over the winning post of 326.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    edited July 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:



    Ave_it shocks with understatement.

    Poor Ave_it hasnt been the same since they took his smilies away ;)

    And since David Connolly saw sense and left Watford.
    He's not been the same since Brendan Rodgers started managing a decent side

    LOL TSE I would say something rude about you
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Albion, you don't have to stop just because you're posting!

    Mr. Eagles, I always preferred ColinW's mum, to be honest.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:



    Ave_it shocks with understatement.

    Poor Ave_it hasnt been the same since they took his smilies away ;)

    And since David Connolly saw sense and left Watford.
    I have a hunch we'll see hunchman tonight.

    There is too much good cheer in the air.

    Even Roger has taken an early night.
    Mark of LabourList knows when to throw the towel in

    Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk
    RT @MSmithsonPB: Tonight's ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the Tories closing the gap to just 3% << Commence meltdown. Goodnight everyone
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    What price a shock return of pbc's favourite and the defender of Sir Malc himself - nuala!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    isam said:

    tim said:

    AlbionTilIDie said:

    How is it possible for Labour only to be 3 points ahead of the Toffs party run by a coward, an inumerate Chancellor and a Health Secretary who wants to destroy the NHS? When they have Milliband and Balls in control..................oh.

    Here comes the BNP liter who invents Mosques running immigration scams which turn out to be Sikh Gurdwaras advertising community groups.

    Blimey is it that bad a poll for Labour?
    LOL

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Where is SeanT?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @Neil - Martin Day and Shagger Dog -they were quite a pair. Maybe they both found love with Coldstone.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970
    Must say we are being treated this far from an election. With two pollsters now running regular polls (YouGov and Poppulus -- I think), and an abundance of other less regular polls. Happy times!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Obviously good for the blues, but little rises and falls happen all the time in polling.

    They do indeed but a continuing trend across all pollsters is just a bit more than that.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    TSE :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Albion, you don't have to stop just because you're posting!

    Mr. Eagles, I always preferred ColinW's mum, to be honest.

    Well who didn't prefer ColinW's mum?

  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    JohnO said:

    @Neil - Martin Day and Shagger Dog -they were quite a pair. Maybe they both found love with Coldstone.

    Shagger Dog was the funniest thing I have read on PB.com. Apart from Rogers Obama prediction.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    dr_spyn said:

    Ave It = pb legend. Good to see you again.

    TY!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Neil said:

    What price a shock return of pbc's favourite and the defender of Sir Malc himself - nuala!


    Only way to get Nuala back is to say something rude about Sir Malcolm.

    I miss Jan from Norway.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    AlbionTilIDie said:

    JohnO said:

    @Neil - Martin Day and Shagger Dog -they were quite a pair. Maybe they both found love with Coldstone.

    Shagger Dog was the funniest thing I have read on PB.com. Apart from Rogers Obama prediction.
    Shagger Dog was indeed epic - and his very many websites with green gas....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Andy_JS said:

    Putting these figures into the UKPR seat calculator gives the following:

    Lab: 341 seats [+83]
    Con: 262 seats [-44]
    LD: 21 seats [-36]

    Labour would be just 15 seats over the winning post of 326.

    I did exactly the same and got a Labour majority of 32 !!

    262, 341, 21, 8, 18
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Nice to see you on as well, Mr. Ave It.

    How do you see the Ashes going?

    Hello Mr Dancer - confident but we mustn't get complacent! Bit like GE2015!

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    surbiton said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Putting these figures into the UKPR seat calculator gives the following:

    Lab: 341 seats [+83]
    Con: 262 seats [-44]
    LD: 21 seats [-36]

    Labour would be just 15 seats over the winning post of 326.

    I did exactly the same and got a Labour majority of 32 !!

    262, 341, 21, 8, 18
    Sorry ! You are saying the same thing except putting it with a negative slant !

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970
    surbiton said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Putting these figures into the UKPR seat calculator gives the following:

    Lab: 341 seats [+83]
    Con: 262 seats [-44]
    LD: 21 seats [-36]

    Labour would be just 15 seats over the winning post of 326.

    I did exactly the same and got a Labour majority of 32 !!

    262, 341, 21, 8, 18
    I believe those are two equivalent statements.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Ave_it,PB as missed you ;-) we seem to have more labour posters nowadays - good luck with them ;-)
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    The nicest thing I have seen while lurking was your picture at the awards ceremony Plato
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    A poll showing them behind by 3 points and they are celebrating-these Tories have low expectations,haven`t they?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    I miss Mr. Submarine, and the sadly departed Mr. SBS. He was a top bloke.

    It's great to see old favourites coming back. The site's better when it has a broader base of contributors.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    Ave_it said:

    Where is SeanT?

    He is AlbionTillIDie, but as he's cunningly wearing a burqa you can't tell.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    AlbionTilIDie said:

    The nicest thing I have seen while lurking was your picture at the awards ceremony Plato

    MWAH!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Tykejohnno said:

    Ave_it,PB as missed you ;-) we seem to have more labour posters nowadays - good luck with them ;-)

    TY! More people to have an intellectual discussion with!

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Yeovil Tories selected Somerset County Councillor Marcus Fysh as their PPC
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