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* According to my twitter feed, not those fake news polls from biased zionist run media organizations.
I don't know how someone who does not support Corbyn but loves the Labour brand is able to still campaign for them right now. I know the MPs moved too soon last summer, but someone needs to take action, this is serious, you cannot just whine about him on twitter.
It's not about giving up either. Maybe a direct fight now would be lost, but you keep at it, dare them to force you out as you fight for the soul of the party. If it is worth fighting for, then fight for it they must. Maybe the locals won't be as bad as predicted (it would be hard to be worse, so even slightly better will seen fantastic), maybe local mayoral candidates will do well, but even if that is true the situation is bloody awful for them, and they cannot rely on May cocking up. She might. There are plenty of things that could lead to that. But at present they are reliant on that, its reactive.
Just an outsider's view. I don't believe this big swings, there's no reason for them to have occurred now, and I don't believe the lead would be as big as this in a GE. But it would be a big lead
Good night
Ta
In 2018, Labour be defending 2,121 councillors, this year they are only defending 538 councillors.
Labour hits its lowest poll rating in opposition since 1915*
YouGov records just 23% for Labour, and a 21% Con lead
* probably
Today’s YouGov marks another low for Corbyn’s Labour party, just two-and-a-half weeks before the key local and mayoral elections.
The survey for The Times records vote shares of
Con 44 (+2)
Lab 23 (-2)
LD 12 (+1)
UKIP 10 (-1)
The 21-point lead ties the poll released by ComRes last week, is the joint-highest for the Conservatives in government since 1988.
Unlike the ComRes poll, however, which had shares of Con 46 / Lab 25, YouGov have Labour on just 23: a vote share that they’ve not recorded when out of government since a single ASL poll just before the 1983 general election (in which they then actually received more than 28%). Indeed, in the history of British political polling – going back to 1943 – Labour has never received a lower Westminster share when on the opposition benches (their all-time low was an 18% share recorded under Gordon Brown in May 2009).
In all probability, it’s the lowest rating in opposition in even longer. Although we don’t have polls before 1940, we do have a healthy set of by-elections, which give a good indication of public mood.
In all the inter-war general elections, Labour polled 30% or better (to the nearest point). Furthermore, they made consistent gains in by-elections during the lengthy periods of Tory rule between 1922 and 1939. Given that there were Labour ministers throughout the Asquith/Lloyd George coalitions, that implies that the 23% in today’s YouGov is Labour’s worst share since at least 1915, when there was a far from universal franchise.
The one possible exception to this might have been following the Labour split in 1931, when the official party might have been reeling from the defection of its leader and prime minister. Unfortunately, there were no useful by-elections at the time so we don’t have any data to work off. Even so, despite the catastrophic loss of seats in the general election later that year, when they were reduced to just 52 MPs, they still received over 30% of ballots cast.
Put simply, Labour is in all probability at its lowest level of support in opposition for over 100 years. The omens for what this means in 2020 if the party does nothing are obvious – and will be even more obvious come May 5. But will they act and if so, will they make the right call?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/most-of-labours-support-is-down-to-corbyn-diane-abbott-says
The Labour leader’s office reported Neil Coyle to the party’s Chief Whip for disciplinary action after he sent Mr Corbyn a formal email questioning his leadership.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3344804/jeremy-corbyn-reports-one-of-his-own-mps-for-harassment-after-his-leadership-is-questioned/
Baxter 650 - Con 400, Lab 159, LD 11 (titters)... Majority 150
Baxter 600 - Con 377, Lab 146, LD 7 (chortles)... Majority 154
Taking into account the period he would have had as PM if the party had been united plus his post Downing Street book deal and speaking fees, he could take the Labour Party for £10m.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39616399
This sounds like the most poncy boots approach possible. Surely the solution is set up a no-fly zone in vicinity of prisons and use the jamming tech that is becoming available.
The number of people who say they have been affected by austerity has fallen from more than one in three to one in four.
Six years ago, 36 per cent of people said they had felt the impact of cuts to public services. This has now fallen to 26 per cent, despite continued reports about the impact of austerity measures.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/16/austerity-number-people-say-have-affected-cuts-has-fallen-since/
Seems to be the classic "well public services are definitely getting worse, but strangely not in my personal experience."
The big one that does seem like a risk for the Tories is how much people think the NHS has / is being affected.
Moderate Labour MPs and members are now caught between a rock and hard place. What is the point of clocking up another failed Leadership challenge when all it will achieve is yet more damage to the Labour brand? The current make up of the Shadow Cabinet, NEC, local associations and Len McClusky embroiled in a Unite Leadership contest means Corbyn is going nowhere until he or his supporters decide it is time for him to step down. Corbyn seems determined to hang around long enough to help enable the election of a suitable successor from his wing of the party, and only then will Corbyn and his team of MPs supporters then see it as job done. The last thing they want is to see a situation whereby it will ever be easy for the Labour party to ever elect another Tony Blair who might stand up to their faction of the party and drag them onto the centre ground of politics where they might actually outbid the Conservatives and win power again on those terms.
And the irony is that its becoming increasingly obvious that while Corbyn is certainly not enjoying his wider role and responsibilities as the main Leader of the Oppositon, he has devoloped the hide of a rhinorceros when it comes to weathering his unpopularity within the PLP and the wider electorate in the polls as long as he attracts a few hundred thousand like minded supporters to the Labour party. Right now the Labour party has a Leader who doesn't care that he does not have the confidence or respect of the majority of his PLP, never mind the wider electorate because all that matters is holding power within the Labour party rather winning power in a GE. And that is why they cannot remove him untill he chooses to go despite the dire position of the party and Corbyn's personal rating in the polls.
The Labour party will embark on a third Leadership contest in this Parliament, but it will be far too late for the moderates to recover enough to elect a steadying hand who might instill enough discipline as an Opposition and mount a recovery in the polls with the electorate to hold onto its current seat share. Jeremy Corbyn will stand down before the next GE, and because he has neither the desire or the temperament to last a week in the heat of the media onslaught during a GE campaign.
The current Leadership election rules and make up of the membership and Union Leaders makes the chances of a more moderate Labour MP winning against Corbyn or his chosen successor slim. Add in the fact that the PLP totally failed to produce or coalesce around one strong candidate who might produce a different outcome and the boundary changes due to reduction of MPs, its now safe to say the Labour party are currently screwed as an electoral force and will face losing more seats at the next GE. Despite all that, I don't see any Labour MPs defecting to other parties, but I do see the possibility of more by-elections caused by Labour MPs leaving Parliament if the right job opportunities arise outside politics.
1). David the android from Prometheus. (Postal vote from half a billion light years away)
2). The entire cast of The Walking dead
3). Lilly Allen and her merry band of refugee 'children.
4). The Cybermen block vote.
5). Daleks, (although how they hold the pencil to vote is debatable)
6). Tony Blair, (ok that's a lost vote)
7). Kim jon fat bastard being the electoral commissioner.
8). Nope they are well and truly f**ked.
9). Bobaflounce if he is on or off this week-get a job you layabout benefit scrounger.
LEAVE - 52%
REMAIN - 48%
The most interesting question is whether there are Conservative MPs sufficiently appalled by the outcome in their own localities to vote against the Bill, regardless of wider political advantage?
The biggest difference from previous reviews is the much tighter and stricter numerical criterion for electorate size which, together with the almost-rule of always using wards as building blocks, is guaranteed to throw up some apparently absurd individual proposed seats. I spent a lot of time working with the online modelling tool last year, and the trade-offs it forces to come up with proposals for a whole area that all met the criteria were severe.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/16/baby-us-embassy-interview-visa-esta-terrorist
I also wonder if the baby is now on some list somewhere and will face problems in future?
What is a bit ironic is that after 2 years of not very much Labour has starting producing some real policy ideas in the last week or so. Not very good policies, in my view, but distinct and according to the polling relatively popular. Certainly more than 23% popular.
Corbyn is now at the stage where every interview is going to be, "yes, but when are you standing down?" The indications are that he will not respond to that well.
Meanwhile, are Opinium re-evaluating their methodology (again)?
What's worse is that unless Corbyn gets literally hit by a bus, he'll pretty much be able to name his successor - so how do we get to a Startmer or Benn, someone that might deny the Tories a stonking majority next time out and provide a decent opposition in the meantime?
edit: the story appears to be "I made a mistake and the US wouldn't bend the rules for me because I'm special".
If he could - he would have gone by now.
1) What will the Don't Knows in fact decide to do? Pollsters make assumptions about this but they can easily be wrong. My guess is that the lower Labour go, the more likely Don't Knows will ultimately break for Labour, as disgusted loyal Labour supporters vote to keep the party going.
2) Conversely, plenty of voters aren't really thinking about this now. When they focus on the choice, are they going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour? He's not an attractive proposition for most voters.
I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.
Mr. Sandpit, I can assure you, it wasn't obvious before the race
My wondrous post-race ramble, including an extremely exciting bar chart *and* a line graph, is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis-2017.html
Edited extra bit: on-topic: nonsense. Chairman Corbyn is well on the way to ensuring glorious success for the People's Revolution. His so-called 'polling problem' is simply a reflection of the decadence inherent in democracy.
No McCluskey = no Corbyn?
And a bigger lead than the Conservatives had before the 2009 elections (Labour's lowest vote in any election).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
For those who like local by-elections it matches the swing in Middlesbrough least week.
Postal voting for this year's local elections will begin this week.
If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.
If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.
Plus of course the minor detail that he doesnt appear to want the job, since he just put in his application for a plum job in the UN (Director of the UN Development Program, 8000 staff, 5bn a year budget, nice office in New York, lots of travel around the world looking important etc)
It is a Kinnock style leader that is needed to purge the loony left, but hopefully one who will do the job right this time
Tom Watson could be useful as Witchfinder general in expelling the Trots. This is an essential precursor to Labour becoming electable.
Edit. Though it has to be said that he did endorse Ed Miliband's campaign for the leadership (in contravention of the convention that former leaders remain neutral in leadership contests).
So 2020 should not yet be an extinction event in anticipation.
(23% ) - Oh dear, at this rate we could see a Labour – Lib Dem cross-over before GE2020...
86% of retail, hotel and restaurant workers are British across the UK as a whole:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/migrationandthelabourmarketuk/2016#what-industry-and-occupations-did-non-uk-nationals-work-in
Yet we're told all the hotels, bars and restaurants in London are staffed by immigrants.
http://election-data.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Election-Data-Labour-Members-Poll.xlsx