I lived for a while in Quebec, and have followed the Quebecois independence referendums with some interest. The last one, of course, was much closer than the Sindy.
The Canadian Government has done something, which may well appeal to other Governments with secessionist or independence movements. It passed the Clarity Act.
The Clarity Act is a beautiful example of Orwellian double-speak.
The purpose of the Act is to make it unclear as to whether a majority of "50% plus one" is even a sufficient threshold for Quebec secession.
To secede, the people of Quebec have to express, by "a clear majority", that they no longer wish to be part of Canada.
Certainly it seems to lack clarity.
Personally I think requiring more than a simple majority is not necessarily a bad thing with such major changes, be it Brexit or Sindy, but having established previously 50%+1 vote would be enough, its hard to justify changing that now, before you even get into tricky arguments of what would be a reasonable threshold, what about turnout and so on.
Would a 43-42 split satisfy '50%+1'?
It's a stupid definition.
What's your preference? 50% +1 vote is only really an issue surely if the result is literally down to a couple of votes, from an odd number.
Regardless, it's too late as far as we're concerned. Whatever rules were in place last time will be in place next time, what justification for changing any of it? If it was sufficient to grant independence had the vote gone the other way then, how can it be argued the rules aren't goo enough now?
You state "Whatever rules were in place last time will be in place next time"
I doubt very much whether that will be true.
Last time, Cameron thought that the result would not be close.
Next time, everyone expects the result to be close. So, I expect there will be much more wrangling as to the conditions of the referendum, and what constitutes a "majority". That is exactly what has happened in Canada/Quebec.
We shall see. On grounds of fairness it should probably be opposed, even though I very much hope the Union stays together.
I lived for a while in Quebec, and have followed the Quebecois independence referendums with some interest. The last one, of course, was much closer than the Sindy.
The Canadian Government has done something, which may well appeal to other Governments with secessionist or independence movements. It passed the Clarity Act.
The Clarity Act is a beautiful example of Orwellian double-speak.
The purpose of the Act is to make it unclear as to whether a majority of "50% plus one" is even a sufficient threshold for Quebec secession.
To secede, the people of Quebec have to express, by "a clear majority", that they no longer wish to be part of Canada.
Certainly it seems to lack clarity.
Personally I think requiring more than a simple majority is not necessarily a bad thing with such major changes, be it Brexit or Sindy, but having established previously 50%+1 vote would be enough, its hard to justify changing that now, before you even get into tricky arguments of what would be a reasonable threshold, what about turnout and so on.
Would a 43-42 split satisfy '50%+1'?
It's a stupid definition.
It's a tough one as obviously if a referendum is won closely the deeper the proposed change the more likely it will sit heavily with the losers.
Wales voted by a tiny whisker for devolution but the level of day to day change for the vast bulk of the populace was very very limited. It's accepted and (ironically, as it was only ever an add on to Scotland and N Ireland ) works reasonably as Blair intended, I guess, for all its imperfections.
52 v 48% last June was narrow but clear, and involved more change, sure, but again, on a day to day basis, for the vast bulk of folk won't make that much difference. Sure some will be very profoundly affected but many more barely at all.
What if Ms Sturgeon inherits a country where she's won 50.1 - 49.9% , and the 49.9% are seriously unaccepting of a change that really is change ( your money, your taxes, your armed forces, your nationality etc etc). Would a significant number head south and leave? I don't know, I don't live there. Maybe the feeling is the 49% would rally behind the new situation. It may be a landslide for independence of course, but at present it will most likely be close (ish) if it does happen, and would contrast with the situation in 1918 in what became the Free State, where my understanding is that Sinn Fein won very very clearly indeed.
The Tories used to talk about broken Britain and Britain being a Third World country when they were in opposition. It's what happens.
Being critical of government policy and action is not the same as talking Britain down. Boris Johnson's absolute incapacity to represent the UK competently and effectively abroad is more damaging to this country's interests than anything an irrelevance from the Labour party can say. Likewise, when cabinet ministers like Liam Fox's assert that we share values with a murderous thug like the President of the Philippines that does more harm to perceptions of us abroad than anything written by a left-wing journalist in a UK newspaper.
Having just been to the Philippines and then to Manila on business it quite clear that Duterte has the support of the people. Very much like Modi in India. We may find some of their policies distasteful but from speaking to people (in both countries) they are behind both their leaders and the policies.
I want this country to trade more with the Philippines (and Brexit was a fairly big subject on my second visit) and a few cheap (free) words about Duterte to smooth the process helps our profile in the country. You didn't have any such problems when Osborne was wining and dining the Chinese a couple of years ago or when they got the full state visit treatment with Dave. China is a full on police state with no free elections, yet when we befriend a democratic nation suddenly it's terrible.
Additionally most people out of the country don't give a shit what Liam Fox says or does, his comments are purely for the domestic audience of the country he is visiting. And I think we do have a lot to admire about Duterte, he was given the worst hand in all of SE Asia, now the Philippine economy is booming, there is hope for the millions of poor where under previous leaders there was absolutely fuck all.
I am sure that Duterte does have the support of people in the Philippines. That does not mean we have to say we share his values. That we feel we have to in order to "smooth the process" shows exactly what kind of situation we find ourselves in. And, yes, that is noticed across the world.
Max worships mammon, he would sell his granny for more, it is the Tory way.
I tried to sell my granny on eBay but they cancelled the auction.
A shame because she's quite sweet and easy to care for. You just need to dust the urn once a week.
£84 billion a year is generated by the creative industries. As the residents of Hartlipool and other Brexiteers spend all day watching Jeremy Kyle this wont be of concern to them but for those of us responsible for generating this huge contribution to the economy Brexit is seen as a catastrophy. Seriously.
We should get some cheaper, harder-working immigrants to do the creating instead of overpaid, over-rated has-beens.
Unfortunately this is one of the few industries where hard worlk alone doesn't cut it. Under the article is a letter from a kindred spirit who seems to sum up the mentality of Brexiteers....
"Is this part of the Liberal Elite group who all lined up to tell us to Remain. David Beckham even too 2 minutes out of his day in LA to tell us to remain in the EU. All those Luvvies who all take part in Tax Avoidance schemes in this country also lined up to tell us what is good for us. Hey, go to LA and live there."
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Slightly odd analogy as the British motorcycle industry is in reasonably good health, that health mostly invested in Triumph admittedly.
Well I just used one of the stereotypes for once dominant British industry laid low by cheaper foreign competition and its own self-satisfaction.
Does Triumph now prosper as a niche, high-end manufacturer rather than for the mass market as in its hey day ?
Triumph is doing really quite well. They are manufactured near me in Hinckley and have an excellent reputation, though not quite as sporty as Japanese machines but manufacture over a thousand per week, with about 25% sold in the USA and quite a few other export markets too, including new agents in India and Brazil.
It shows that manufacturing is quite viable in developed countries, if that wasn't obvious already from our EU neighbours.
Although to be fair Triumph have a substantial component fabrication facility in Chonburi, Thailand employing more people than they do at Hinckley.
I lived for a while in Quebec, and have followed the Quebecois independence referendums with some interest. The last one, of course, was much closer than the Sindy.
The Canadian Government has done something, which may well appeal to other Governments with secessionist or independence movements. It passed the Clarity Act.
The Clarity Act is a beautiful example of Orwellian double-speak.
The purpose of the Act is to make it unclear as to whether a majority of "50% plus one" is even a sufficient threshold for Quebec secession.
To secede, the people of Quebec have to express, by "a clear majority", that they no longer wish to be part of Canada.
Certainly it seems to lack clarity.
Personally I think requiring more than a simple majority is not necessarily a bad thing with such major changes, be it Brexit or Sindy, but having established previously 50%+1 vote would be enough, its hard to justify changing that now, before you even get into tricky arguments of what would be a reasonable threshold, what about turnout and so on.
Would a 43-42 split satisfy '50%+1'?
It's a stupid definition.
What's your preference? 50% +1 vote is only really an issue surely if the result is literally down to a couple of votes, from an odd number.
Regardless, it's too late as far as we're concerned. Whatever rules were in place last time will be in place next time, what justification for changing any of it? If it was sufficient to grant independence had the vote gone the other way then, how can it be argued the rules aren't goo enough now?
My preference is 'in excess of 50%'. I like things to be tidy.
I lived for a while in Quebec, and have followed the Quebecois independence referendums with some interest. The last one, of course, was much closer than the Sindy.
The Canadian Government has done something, which may well appeal to other Governments with secessionist or independence movements. It passed the Clarity Act.
The Clarity Act is a beautiful example of Orwellian double-speak.
The purpose of the Act is to make it unclear as to whether a majority of "50% plus one" is even a sufficient threshold for Quebec secession.
To secede, the people of Quebec have to express, by "a clear majority", that they no longer wish to be part of Canada.
Certainly it seems to lack clarity.
Personally I think requiring more than a simple majority is not necessarily a bad thing with such major changes, be it Brexit or Sindy, but having established previously 50%+1 vote would be enough, its hard to justify changing that now, before you even get into tricky arguments of what would be a reasonable threshold, what about turnout and so on.
Would a 43-42 split satisfy '50%+1'?
It's a stupid definition.
Not to mention it's prone to the same problem as the Fixed Term Parliament Act, namely the wording of the subsequent act can bypass it.
"Not withstanding the Clarity Act 2017, a referendum will be held on (date) about (subject) and will accept a 50%+1 threshold"
Passing the act is nothing more than political showboating, the act enabling a subsequent referendum can set any threshold it likes.
Of course, it is showboating. And the Quebec National Assembly retaliated by re-iterating Quebec's inalienable right to self-determination, which was further show-boating.
The Clarity Act enables the losers of the referendum to claim that the result is not valid because the subsequent legislation violated the Clarity Act.
The whole purpose of the magnificently titled Clarity Act is to create a Lack of Clarity. The threshold which the Quebec secessionists now have to attain has become much murkier.
£84 billion a year is generated by the creative industries. As the residents of Hartlipool and other Brexiteers spend all day watching Jeremy Kyle this wont be of concern to them but for those of us responsible for generating this huge contribution to the economy Brexit is seen as a catastrophy. Seriously.
We should get some cheaper, harder-working immigrants to do the creating instead of overpaid, over-rated has-beens.
Unfortunately this is one of the few industries where hard worlk alone doesn't cut it. Under the article is a letter from a kindred spirit who seems to sum up the mentality of Brexiteers....
"Is this part of the Liberal Elite group who all lined up to tell us to Remain. David Beckham even too 2 minutes out of his day in LA to tell us to remain in the EU. All those Luvvies who all take part in Tax Avoidance schemes in this country also lined up to tell us what is good for us. Hey, go to LA and live there."
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Slightly odd analogy as the British motorcycle industry is in reasonably good health, that health mostly invested in Triumph admittedly.
Well I just used one of the stereotypes for once dominant British industry laid low by cheaper foreign competition and its own self-satisfaction.
Does Triumph now prosper as a niche, high-end manufacturer rather than for the mass market as in its hey day ?
It pretty much does what the other big mass market companies do, ie produces sportbikes, tourers, cruisers, retros, though perhaps not in the same volumes as the big four. There also seem to be a thriving (or at least numerous) niche cottage industry, mostly reviving old badges.
John Bloor bought the Triumph brand in 1983, and is a classic self made man. He left school as a plasterer and has built Triumph up from nothing, though his main business is Bloor Homes. He is worth over a billion pounds, said to be the richest man in Leicester.
He isn't a flashy fellow, and lives outside the M25 so not particularly known to the media.
£84 billion a year is generated by the creative industries. As the residents of Hartlipool and other Brexiteers spend all day watching Jeremy Kyle this wont be of concern to them but for those of us responsible for generating this huge contribution to the economy Brexit is seen as a catastrophy. Seriously.
We should get some cheaper, harder-working immigrants to do the creating instead of overpaid, over-rated has-beens.
Unfortunately this is one of the few industries where hard worlk alone doesn't cut it. Under the article is a letter from a kindred spirit who seems to sum up the mentality of Brexiteers....
"Is this part of the Liberal Elite group who all lined up to tell us to Remain. David Beckham even too 2 minutes out of his day in LA to tell us to remain in the EU. All those Luvvies who all take part in Tax Avoidance schemes in this country also lined up to tell us what is good for us. Hey, go to LA and live there."
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Slightly odd analogy as the British motorcycle industry is in reasonably good health, that health mostly invested in Triumph admittedly.
Well I just used one of the stereotypes for once dominant British industry laid low by cheaper foreign competition and its own self-satisfaction.
Does Triumph now prosper as a niche, high-end manufacturer rather than for the mass market as in its hey day ?
Triumph is doing really quite well. They are manufactured near me in Hinckley and have an excellent reputation, though not quite as sporty as Japanese machines but manufacture over a thousand per week, with about 25% sold in the USA and quite a few other export markets too, including new agents in India and Brazil.
It shows that manufacturing is quite viable in developed countries, if that wasn't obvious already from our EU neighbours.
Although to be fair Triumph have a substantial component fabrication facility in Chonburi, Thailand employing more people than they do at Hinckley.
Yep, it shows how integrated supply chains are across the world.
£84 billion a year is generated by the creative industries. As the residents of Hartlipool and other Brexiteers spend all day watching Jeremy Kyle this wont be of concern to them but for those of us responsible for generating this huge contribution to the economy Brexit is seen as a catastrophy. Seriously.
We should get some cheaper, harder-working immigrants to do the creating instead of overpaid, over-rated has-beens.
Unfortunately this is one of the few industries where hard worlk alone doesn't cut it. Under the article is a letter from a kindred spirit who seems to sum up the mentality of Brexiteers....
"Is this part of the Liberal Elite group who all lined up to tell us to Remain. David Beckham even too 2 minutes out of his day in LA to tell us to remain in the EU. All those Luvvies who all take part in Tax Avoidance schemes in this country also lined up to tell us what is good for us. Hey, go to LA and live there."
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Slightly odd analogy as the British motorcycle industry is in reasonably good health, that health mostly invested in Triumph admittedly.
Well I just used one of the stereotypes for once dominant British industry laid low by cheaper foreign competition and its own self-satisfaction.
Does Triumph now prosper as a niche, high-end manufacturer rather than for the mass market as in its hey day ?
Triumph is doing really quite well. They are manufactured near me in Hinckley and have an excellent reputation, though not quite as sporty as Japanese machines but manufacture over a thousand per week, with about 25% sold in the USA and quite a few other export markets too, including new agents in India and Brazil.
It shows that manufacturing is quite viable in developed countries, if that wasn't obvious already from our EU neighbours.
Although to be fair Triumph have a substantial component fabrication facility in Chonburi, Thailand employing more people than they do at Hinckley.
Crikey, a manufacturer with a supply chain based outside the EU, with tariffs and everything! I am sure I have been told on here that such things were not possible due to the costs involved.
Remainers have much in common with Labour - fighting yesterday's fight with yesterday's men with little other than 'ooooh you lot are nasty and talk to nasty people'. Oh, and talking in terms like 'pariah status' is doing Britain down.
So a Labour Government can do no right and a Conservative Government can do no wrong would be your line ?
I think many would take a more nuanced view and that entails criticism of the current Government which is perfectly reasonable in a democracy or is any criticism "talking the country down" ?
No, but referring to the country in which all your voters live as having 'parish status' clearly is.
Get a dictionary. To be a pariah is to be an outcast. Now we may have done it to ourself, we may have wanted it, but wrt the EU, a pariah is precisely what we are right now. Problem is, it casts a shadow beyond the EU and our partners are wary. No point denying it. We have to fix that . And the kind of rhetoric we had about Spain does not help.
ah bless - everything that ever happens is all our fault.
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
I expect they will be due to the death of SLAB so no deal.
What do you recon to SLibDem? up or down?
Whilst in rUK the LDs are on the up, I suspect Scotland will be down or break even. If you want Indy you vote SNP and if you don't you vote Tory. If you want Brexit you vote Tory and if you don't you probably vote SNP. The LDs in Scotland have the same problem that Labour has everywhere; on the defining issues of the day, the fence is no place to be.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
Good for Labour would be unprecedented defeats followed by the resignation of Jeremy Corbyn.
Good for other parties would be unprecedented Labour defeats followed by continuation of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.
Only the former is good for the Country .
The country is still paying for the tragedy of having allowed Gordon Brown into Downing Street. While having a strong opposition is important for the Country, as long as Bed Blocker stays in charge he's preventing a re-run of that for now at least.
The Brown era was a golden era of calm, stability and competence compared to today
Today the deficit is less than half of what it was in the Brown era - and the vast bulk of the deficit now is interest on what was borrowed before. IE had it not been for the Brown era the deficit would be even lower today.
You've still not learnt the lessons of the Brown era clearly.
I love the fact that Labour scream about austerity - but we are still borrowing huge amounts of money - which accrues yet more interest.
I lived for a while in Quebec, and have followed the Quebecois independence referendums with some interest. The last one, of course, was much closer than the Sindy.
The Canadian Government has done something, which may well appeal to other Governments with secessionist or independence movements. It passed the Clarity Act.
The Clarity Act is a beautiful example of Orwellian double-speak.
The purpose of the Act is to make it unclear as to whether a majority of "50% plus one" is even a sufficient threshold for Quebec secession.
To secede, the people of Quebec have to express, by "a clear majority", that they no longer wish to be part of Canada.
Certainly it seems to lack clarity.
Personally I think requiring more than a simple majority is not necessarily a bad thing with such major changes, be it Brexit or Sindy, but having established previously 50%+1 vote would be enough, its hard to justify changing that now, before you even get into tricky arguments of what would be a reasonable threshold, what about turnout and so on.
Would a 43-42 split satisfy '50%+1'?
It's a stupid definition.
What's your preference? 50% +1 vote is only really an issue surely if the result is literally down to a couple of votes, from an odd number.
Regardless, it's too late as far as we're concerned. Whatever rules were in place last time will be in place next time, what justification for changing any of it? If it was sufficient to grant independence had the vote gone the other way then, how can it be argued the rules aren't goo enough now?
You state "Whatever rules were in place last time will be in place next time"
I doubt very much whether that will be true.
Last time, Cameron thought that the result would not be close.
Next time, everyone expects the result to be close. So, I expect there will be much more wrangling as to the conditions of the referendum, and what constitutes a "majority". That is exactly what has happened in Canada/Quebec.
We shall see. On grounds of fairness it should probably be opposed, even though I very much hope the Union stays together.
To give a specific counter-example, the referendums in 1979 on Scottish and Welsh devolution were *not* run on the same principles as the ones in 1997. The 79 one in Scotland needed a supermajority, the 97 didn't.
I am not stating whether the 79 or 97 principles were right or wrong, just pointing out that there are counterexamples to what you suggest.
The argument will be made: why should David Cameron's government have decided once and for all what the conditions of the referendum should be?
I lived for a while in Quebec, and have followed the Quebecois independence referendums with some interest. The last one, of course, was much closer than the Sindy.
The Canadian Government has done something, which may well appeal to other Governments with secessionist or independence movements. It passed the Clarity Act.
The Clarity Act is a beautiful example of Orwellian double-speak.
The purpose of the Act is to make it unclear as to whether a majority of "50% plus one" is even a sufficient threshold for Quebec secession.
To secede, the people of Quebec have to express, by "a clear majority", that they no longer wish to be part of Canada.
Certainly it seems to lack clarity.
Personally I think requiring more than a simple majority is not necessarily a bad thing with such major changes, be it Brexit or Sindy, but having established previously 50%+1 vote would be enough, its hard to justify changing that now, before you even get into tricky arguments of what would be a reasonable threshold, what about turnout and so on.
Would a 43-42 split satisfy '50%+1'?
It's a stupid definition.
What's your preference? 50% +1 vote is only really an issue surely if the result is literally down to a couple of votes, from an odd number.
Regardless, it's too late as far as we're concerned. Whatever rules were in place last time will be in place next time, what justification for changing any of it? If it was sufficient to grant independence had the vote gone the other way then, how can it be argued the rules aren't goo enough now?
You state "Whatever rules were in place last time will be in place next time"
I doubt very much whether that will be true.
Last time, Cameron thought that the result would not be close.
Next time, everyone expects the result to be close. So, I expect there will be much more wrangling as to the conditions of the referendum, and what constitutes a "majority". That is exactly what has happened in Canada/Quebec.
We shall see. On grounds of fairness it should probably be opposed, even though I very much hope the Union stays together.
To give a specific counter-example, the referendums in 1979 on Scottish and Welsh devolution were *not* run on the same principles as the ones in 1997. The 79 one in Scotland needed a supermajority, the 97 didn't.
[snip]
True, although ironically, having dispensed with the super-majority (or double-hurdle, more accurately), the 1997 referendum would have cleared the 1979 conditions - 44.7% of the electorate voted 'Yes').
£84 billion a year is generated by the creative industries. As the residents of Hartlipool and other Brexiteers spend all day watching Jeremy Kyle this wont be of concern to them but for those of us responsible for generating this huge contribution to the economy Brexit is seen as a catastrophy. Seriously.
We should get some cheaper, harder-working immigrants to do the creating instead of overpaid, over-rated has-beens.
Unfortunately this is one of the few industries where hard worlk alone doesn't cut it. Under the article is a letter from a kindred spirit who seems to sum up the mentality of Brexiteers....
"Is this part of the Liberal Elite group who all lined up to tell us to Remain. David Beckham even too 2 minutes out of his day in LA to tell us to remain in the EU. All those Luvvies who all take part in Tax Avoidance schemes in this country also lined up to tell us what is good for us. Hey, go to LA and live there."
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Slightly odd analogy as the British motorcycle industry is in reasonably good health, that health mostly invested in Triumph admittedly.
Well I just used one of the stereotypes for once dominant British industry laid low by cheaper foreign competition and its own self-satisfaction.
Does Triumph now prosper as a niche, high-end manufacturer rather than for the mass market as in its hey day ?
Triumph is doing really quite well. They are manufactured near me in Hinckley and have an excellent reputation, though not quite as sporty as Japanese machines but manufacture over a thousand per week, with about 25% sold in the USA and quite a few other export markets too, including new agents in India and Brazil.
It shows that manufacturing is quite viable in developed countries, if that wasn't obvious already from our EU neighbours.
Although to be fair Triumph have a substantial component fabrication facility in Chonburi, Thailand employing more people than they do at Hinckley.
Outside the glorious EU? That is not possible. We've been told endlessly on here that it just cannot happen.
John Bloor bought the Triumph brand in 1983, and is a classic self made man. He left school as a plasterer and has built Triumph up from nothing, though his main business is Bloor Homes. He is worth over a billion pounds, said to be the richest man in Leicester.
He isn't a flashy fellow, and lives outside the M25 so not particularly known to the media.
Its a much bigger business than Brompton Bikes - which does get a great deal of publicity and which is in London.
£84 billion a year is generated by the creative industries. As the residents of Hartlipool and other Brexiteers spend all day watching Jeremy Kyle this wont be of concern to them but for those of us responsible for generating this huge contribution to the economy Brexit is seen as a catastrophy. Seriously.
We should get some cheaper, harder-working immigrants to do the creating instead of overpaid, over-rated has-beens.
Unfortunately this is one of the few industries where hard worlk alone doesn't cut it. Under the article is a letter from a kindred spirit who seems to sum up the mentality of Brexiteers....
"Is this part of the Liberal Elite group who all lined up to tell us to Remain. David Beckham even too 2 minutes out of his day in LA to tell us to remain in the EU. All those Luvvies who all take part in Tax Avoidance schemes in this country also lined up to tell us what is good for us. Hey, go to LA and live there."
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Slightly odd analogy as the British motorcycle industry is in reasonably good health, that health mostly invested in Triumph admittedly.
Well I just used one of the stereotypes for once dominant British industry laid low by cheaper foreign competition and its own self-satisfaction.
Does Triumph now prosper as a niche, high-end manufacturer rather than for the mass market as in its hey day ?
Triumph is doing really quite well. They are manufactured near me in Hinckley and have an excellent reputation, though not quite as sporty as Japanese machines but manufacture over a thousand per week, with about 25% sold in the USA and quite a few other export markets too, including new agents in India and Brazil.
It shows that manufacturing is quite viable in developed countries, if that wasn't obvious already from our EU neighbours.
Although to be fair Triumph have a substantial component fabrication facility in Chonburi, Thailand employing more people than they do at Hinckley.
Outside the glorious EU? That is not possible. We've been told endlessly on here that it just cannot happen.
Low (relatively) wage economy, though. Buy a reasonable lunch for the equivalent of £2 or so, for example.
£84 billion a year is generated by the creative industries. As the residents of Hartlipool and other Brexiteers spend all day watching Jeremy Kyle this wont be of concern to them but for those of us responsible for generating this huge contribution to the economy Brexit is seen as a catastrophy. Seriously.
We should get some cheaper, harder-working immigrants to do the creating instead of overpaid, over-rated has-beens.
Unfortunately this is one of the few industries where hard worlk alone doesn't cut it. Under the article is a letter from a kindred spirit who seems to sum up the mentality of Brexiteers....
"Is this part of the Liberal Elite group who all lined up to tell us to Remain. David Beckham even too 2 minutes out of his day in LA to tell us to remain in the EU. All those Luvvies who all take part in Tax Avoidance schemes in this country also lined up to tell us what is good for us. Hey, go to LA and live there."
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Slightly odd analogy as the British motorcycle industry is in reasonably good health, that health mostly invested in Triumph admittedly.
Well I just used one of the stereotypes for once dominant British industry laid low by cheaper foreign competition and its own self-satisfaction.
Does Triumph now prosper as a niche, high-end manufacturer rather than for the mass market as in its hey day ?
Triumph is doing really quite well. They are manufactured near me in Hinckley and have an excellent reputation, though not quite as sporty as Japanese machines but manufacture over a thousand per week, with about 25% sold in the USA and quite a few other export markets too, including new agents in India and Brazil.
It shows that manufacturing is quite viable in developed countries, if that wasn't obvious already from our EU neighbours.
Although to be fair Triumph have a substantial component fabrication facility in Chonburi, Thailand employing more people than they do at Hinckley.
Outside the glorious EU? That is not possible. We've been told endlessly on here that it just cannot happen.
Who ever said it was impossible? Just that it adds cost and complexity, perhaps offset by lower costs elsewhere.
More seriously I would expect peak Nat to be around 2018-19. After that there will be too many awkward domestic questions about their record in government and the beahviour of their members for them to rise much higher, and independence will either have been achieved or brushed off the table for good. This may therefore be their peak year in terms of electoral results.
£84 billion a year is generated by the creative industries. As the residents of Hartlipool and other Brexiteers spend all day watching Jeremy Kyle this wont be of concern to them but for those of us responsible for generating this huge contribution to the economy Brexit is seen as a catastrophy. Seriously.
We should get some cheaper, harder-working immigrants to do the creating instead of overpaid, over-rated has-beens.
Unfortunately this is one of the few industries where hard worlk alone doesn't cut it. Under the article is a letter from a kindred spirit who seems to sum up the mentality of Brexiteers....
"Is this part of the Liberal Elite group who all lined up to tell us to Remain. David Beckham even too 2 minutes out of his day in LA to tell us to remain in the EU. All those Luvvies who all take part in Tax Avoidance schemes in this country also lined up to tell us what is good for us. Hey, go to LA and live there."
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Slightly odd analogy as the British motorcycle industry is in reasonably good health, that health mostly invested in Triumph admittedly.
Well I just used one of the stereotypes for once dominant British industry laid low by cheaper foreign competition and its own self-satisfaction.
Does Triumph now prosper as a niche, high-end manufacturer rather than for the mass market as in its hey day ?
Triumph is doing really quite well. They are manufactured near me in Hinckley and have an excellent reputation, though not quite as sporty as Japanese machines but manufacture over a thousand per week, with about 25% sold in the USA and quite a few other export markets too, including new agents in India and Brazil.
It shows that manufacturing is quite viable in developed countries, if that wasn't obvious already from our EU neighbours.
Although to be fair Triumph have a substantial component fabrication facility in Chonburi, Thailand employing more people than they do at Hinckley.
Outside the glorious EU? That is not possible. We've been told endlessly on here that it just cannot happen.
Are you looking forward to UK wage levels falling to those of Thailand?
Speaking about Wales, which I know about the best, these would be the definitions of success for the various parties:
Labour Excellent Night: Any net gains and gaining control of Carmarthenshire Labour Average Night: No more than 57 net losses and losing control of only Cardiff Labour Bad Night: No more than 114 net losses and losing Cardiff and Swansea Labour Horrific Night: No more than 171 net losses, losing Cardiff, Swansea, Newport Labour Disaster Area: More than 171 net losses and ending up with no councils under majority control
Plaid Cymru Excellent Night: More than 64 net gains, gaining control of Ynys Môn, Gwynedd, Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire and Rhondda Plaid Cymru Average Night: More than 48 net gains, gaining control of Ynys Môn, Gwynedd, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire Plaid Cymru Bad Night: More than 32 net gains, gaining control of Ynys Môn, Gwynedd and Ceredigion Plaid Cymru Horrific Night: More than 16 net gains, gaining control of gaining control of Ynys Môn and Gwynedd Plaid Cymru Disaster Area: Any net losses and losing lead party status in Gwynedd and Ceredigion
Conservative Excellent Night: More than 40 net gains, gaining control of Vale of Glamorgan Conservative Average Night: More than 30 net gains, becoming largest party on Vale of Glamorgan Conservative Bad Night: More than 20 net gains, no change in status Conservative Horrific Night: More than 10 net gains, no change in status Conservative Disaster Area: No change in seats, no change in status
Liberal Democrats Excellent Night: More than 28 net gains, gaining control of Cardiff and Swansea Liberal Democrats Average Night: More than 21 net gains, gaining control of Cardiff Liberal Democrats Bad Night: More than 14 net gains Liberal Democrats Horrific Night: No gains at all Liberal Democrat Disaster Area: Any net losses
You beat me to it....I generally agree and FWIW I think it will be WLAB Disaster although, PC & Con Excellent, and LD average (but without taking Cardiff). I also think Plaid might take Caerffili and do well in NPT
There will definitely be a middle class in the future but how many people will be a part of it?
Quite. The idea that there has to be a significant middle class in the future is bizzare, there wasnt for quite a lot of our past, and isnt in the majority of third world countries even now.
But a large middle class and, even more importantly, a majority of the population aspiring to be in that middle class, is the sine qua non of an adequately functioning democracy. And no, don't point me to India or Pakistan as counter examples. They do not meet my bar for adequately-functioning democracies.
Previous attempts at reviving iconic brands have not always gone so well. There were some bikes marketed as Matchless a few decades ago that were very poor.
Triumph works a bit like Brompton, apealing to style and quality conscious consumers. People are buying a lifestyle rather than just transport. For both there are cheaper alternatives, but there are for Jaguars too.
Considering the ownership of British motor vehhicle factories, Triumph may well be the largest volume British owned vehicle manufacturer.
Off topic and very random but has anyone seen Peter Kay's Car Share series? Just finished the second series on iplayer. Lot of northern comedy so it might be a bit of an acquired taste (I am a Lancastrian and was a fan of Phoenix Nights). It's really, really good.
Outside the glorious EU? That is not possible. We've been told endlessly on here that it just cannot happen.
Are you looking forward to UK wage levels falling to those of Thailand?
That's a desperate leap even for you. If the lower wages in Thailand offset the increase in tarrifs when clearly business will be done there, it has nothing to do with wave levels in the UK.
Long term globalisation means that all global wages will tend toward the mean, and at the moment that mean is considerable below were we are, so there really is only one way to go in relative terms for all of the EU.
There will definitely be a middle class in the future but how many people will be a part of it?
Quite. The idea that there has to be a significant middle class in the future is bizzare, there wasnt for quite a lot of our past, and isnt in the majority of third world countries even now.
But a large middle class and, even more importantly, a majority of the population aspiring to be in that middle class, is the sine qua non of an adequately functioning democracy. And no, don't point me to India or Pakistan as counter examples. They do not meet my bar for adequately-functioning democracies.
I don't disagree. Democracy is starting to look pretty creaky in quite a lot of the developed world as well, even with the middle classes. Infact the middle classes appear to be doing most of the bitching about democracy at the moment because it seems to be giving them the "wrong" results.
In 2015, without a particular reason to vote for or against a contender in the constituency, I felt that the Lib Dems deserved reward for doing the right thing in going into coalition more than they deserved punishment for the half the time in government they spent acting as if they were in opposition.
Sadly, since the election they have a leader who seems to believe the opposite. He also wants to overturn the referendum result thus boosting UKIP - something the country can't afford.
I find the Tories under May far preferable to Labour under Corbyn - the latter being so bad that I even paid to vote against him.
That's the short version.
Interesting and I'd certainly agree as to preferring May over Corbyn.
I'll leave your observations on the Coalition for another time. I think the country benefited hugely from stable Government from 2010-15 but from the word go it was always going to be a one-off one-term arrangement specifically to provide that stability.
The wilful misrepresentation of the LD and Tim Farron's position is to be expected but needs to be challenged. Tim and the LDs are not proposing a "re-run" of the 2016 referendum but are proposing a referendum on the outcome of the A50 negotiations - the final Treaty (assuming there is one).
I have two problems with that position:
1) There's no scope for referenda within the A50 process. The final Treaty does have to be ratified by both the UK Government and the 27 EU Governments and it's not hard to imagine some problems with both. The negotiation period could be extended (whatever the rules currently say) if Poland or Croatia or Spain or whoever is sticking on a point.
2) What kind of Treaty would clear the UK Parliament ? I am opposed to the Single Market and Freedom of Movement but that doesn't mean I don't want a mutually advantageous economic arrangement with the EU. I also want a clear immigration policy applicable to all which allows for genuine refugees and the skills our economy needs but which may lack.
I suspect that's not where Tim and the LDs are though I could be wrong and until we see a negotiated Treaty it will be hard to judge.
Off topic and very random but has anyone seen Peter Kay's Car Share series? Just finished the second series on iplayer. Lot of northern comedy so it might be a bit of an acquired taste (I am a Lancastrian and was a fan of Phoenix Nights). It's really, really good.
It is good. Peter Kay is a great observer of people, finding comedy in idiosyncrasies without being cruel.
He was 34 to win before practice. .... We'll see how the odds change.
Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, if the gap's actually been cut that'd be bloody astonishing. Red Bull were a long way off the pace previously.
Previous attempts at reviving iconic brands have not always gone so well. There were some bikes marketed as Matchless a few decades ago that were very poor.
Triumph works a bit like Brompton, apealing to style and quality conscious consumers. People are buying a lifestyle rather than just transport. For both there are cheaper alternatives, but there are for Jaguars too.
Considering the ownership of British motor vehhicle factories, Triumph may well be the largest volume British owned vehicle manufacturer.
Its all about adding value - and that added value can be just as much about image and lifestyle issues as about price and quality.
He was 34 to win before practice. .... We'll see how the odds change.
Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, if the gap's actually been cut that'd be bloody astonishing. Red Bull were a long way off the pace previously.
I rather think the FP3 times told us the square root of eff all, Mr.D. Though if it gives you the chance to lay your Red Bull bet at a profit...
An interesting question would be if the top teams might split tyre strategies in qualifying. There might be some advantage to be gained starting the race on the softs, and saving the SS for the final stint of the race, when the car weight is lower and the track cooler ? Bit hard to tell, as there has been so little representative practice.
Previous attempts at reviving iconic brands have not always gone so well. There were some bikes marketed as Matchless a few decades ago that were very poor.
sort of bikes being made at the moment. Cheap as chips retro bikes made in China for new British companies to 'finish' in the UK. Apparently not that bad, and especially not considering the price point. The one above costs half what my Honda CRF250L costs!
Low (relatively) wage economy, though. Buy a reasonable lunch for the equivalent of £2 or so, for example.
Ah, yes, lunch! Time to head off to the club for a late lunch.
Hopefully there will be some caricoles left ... snails are a local Easter dish.
Thought dyed in the wool Tories ate babies!
Thai delicacies inclide grssshoppers. Not keen myself; the legs get in the way. Prefer the very small frogs they gut and deep-fry. Bit like a somewhat larger version of whitebait./
Off topic and very random but has anyone seen Peter Kay's Car Share series? Just finished the second series on iplayer. Lot of northern comedy so it might be a bit of an acquired taste (I am a Lancastrian and was a fan of Phoenix Nights). It's really, really good.
It is good. Peter Kay is a great observer of people, finding comedy in idiosyncrasies without being cruel.
Yeah you are right, he's a master at that. Everything about this show I chuckle at, just seeing some funny signs or a piece of grafitti as they drive past can be very funny or songs from Forever FM that fit perfectly with a discussion they are having. He really is a huge talent and Sian is perfect with him.
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Globalisation and automation are inexorable and all those 'creative' middle class types in the West will soon be creating nothing but their own sorrow and anger
It'll be Jeremy Kyle for you soon.
Still the really talented British creatives will become even richer. But that means SeanT not the hipsters of Hoxton.
If you want a picture of the future Roger, imagine SeanT stamping on your face - for ever.
Even SeanT needs awful, disgusting unpatriotic publicists, publishers and marketers to promote his
I seem to have touched a sore spot.
You know I'm right.
Globalisation and automation are going to cut a swathe through middle class employment just as they did with much of the working class in previous generations.
SeanT has already mentioned this with his comments on travel writers and sub-editors.
Now the genuinely talented - SeanT for example - will still prosper, perhaps to an even greater extent.
But all those middle class professions will struggle because there will be a computer or someone in the third world able to do their work cheaper and faster than they can do.
And what will all those nice middle class types have left ?
Debts, insecure work, falling earnings, anger, housing problems and a longing for 'how things used to be'.
The middle class is by definition the middle income sector of the population with a reasonable level of education, there may emerge a growing gap between them and the rich and highly educated sector of the population as a result of globalisation and automation (with growing arguments for things like a universal income) but they will still be the middle class
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
I expect they will be due to the death of SLAB so no deal.
What do you recon to SLibDem? up or down?
Whilst in rUK the LDs are on the up, I suspect Scotland will be down or break even. If you want Indy you vote SNP and if you don't you vote Tory. If you want Brexit you vote Tory and if you don't you probably vote SNP. The LDs in Scotland have the same problem that Labour has everywhere; on the defining issues of the day, the fence is no place to be.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
The Scottish LDs actually have the pro EU and pro Union market all to themselves
£84 billion a year is generated by the creative industries. As the residents of Hartlipool and other Brexiteers spend all day watching Jeremy Kyle this wont be of concern to them but for those of us responsible for generating this huge contribution to the economy Brexit is seen as a catastrophy. Seriously.
FACT EU rules have weakened safety checks on doctors making patients less safe and have held back cancer research
FACT The EU is taking more control of the NHS and forcing more privatisation
FACT Labour MPs have warned that EU proposals could lead to the ‘demise of the publicly-funded National Health Service’
am I right in thinking that not only have Labour privatised more of the NHS than the Tories ever did, but that PFI is crucifying the NHS, another Brown blunder of epic proportions that we will be paying for over the next 20 yrs or so.
Not to forget that Labour were going to CUT NHS funding whilst the tories ring fenced it.....
It seems that when Labour do try to reform* the NHS, PB Tories still are not happy. What chance a bipartisan policy?
*reform (like modernise) is a weasel word that suggests improvement, while doing the opposite.
Whilst I am not a tory I am all for reform.
Who will scream the loudest about any change I wonder?
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
I expect they will be due to the death of SLAB so no deal.
What do you recon to SLibDem? up or down?
Whilst in rUK the LDs are on the up, I suspect Scotland will be down or break even. If you want Indy you vote SNP and if you don't you vote Tory. If you want Brexit you vote Tory and if you don't you probably vote SNP. The LDs in Scotland have the same problem that Labour has everywhere; on the defining issues of the day, the fence is no place to be.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
The Scottish LDs actually have the pro EU and pro Union market all to themselves
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
I expect they will be due to the death of SLAB so no deal.
What do you recon to SLibDem? up or down?
Whilst in rUK the LDs are on the up, I suspect Scotland will be down or break even. If you want Indy you vote SNP and if you don't you vote Tory. If you want Brexit you vote Tory and if you don't you probably vote SNP. The LDs in Scotland have the same problem that Labour has everywhere; on the defining issues of the day, the fence is no place to be.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
The Scottish LDs actually have the pro EU and pro Union market all to themselves
Er; ....... how big is that market?
Potentially quite large given 55% of Scots voted for the Union and over 60% to stay in the EU
FACT EU rules have weakened safety checks on doctors making patients less safe and have held back cancer research
FACT The EU is taking more control of the NHS and forcing more privatisation
FACT Labour MPs have warned that EU proposals could lead to the ‘demise of the publicly-funded National Health Service’
am I right in thinking that not only have Labour privatised more of the NHS than the Tories ever did, but that PFI is crucifying the NHS, another Brown blunder of epic proportions that we will be paying for over the next 20 yrs or so.
Not to forget that Labour were going to CUT NHS funding whilst the tories ring fenced it.....
It seems that when Labour do try to reform* the NHS, PB Tories still are not happy. What chance a bipartisan policy?
*reform (like modernise) is a weasel word that suggests improvement, while doing the opposite.
Whilst I am not a tory I am all for reform.
Who will scream the loudest about any change I wonder?
One of the NHS’s biggest problems over the past twenty years has been the desire of politicians to ‘reform’ it. Among the consequences have been a loss of morale ..... you never know how the management system works, and, too often, a need for even middle rank people to reapply for their own jobs.
I’m not at all keen on the Lansley reforms, but I would tinker with them as little as possible.... perhaps take back public health from local governement ...... but otherwise I’d leave management and staff to get on with it as far as possible for the next 20 or so years.
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
I expect they will be due to the death of SLAB so no deal.
What do you recon to SLibDem? up or down?
Whilst in rUK the LDs are on the up, I suspect Scotland will be down or break even. If you want Indy you vote SNP and if you don't you vote Tory. If you want Brexit you vote Tory and if you don't you probably vote SNP. The LDs in Scotland have the same problem that Labour has everywhere; on the defining issues of the day, the fence is no place to be.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
The Scottish LDs actually have the pro EU and pro Union market all to themselves
Er; ....... how big is that market?
Potentially quite large given 55% of Scots voted for the Union and over 60% to stay in the EU
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
I expect they will be due to the death of SLAB so no deal.
What do you recon to SLibDem? up or down?
Whilst in rUK the LDs are on the up, I suspect Scotland will be down or break even. If you want Indy you vote SNP and if you don't you vote Tory. If you want Brexit you vote Tory and if you don't you probably vote SNP. The LDs in Scotland have the same problem that Labour has everywhere; on the defining issues of the day, the fence is no place to be.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
The Scottish LDs actually have the pro EU and pro Union market all to themselves
That's also SLab's position, though (surprisingly for them) they've managed to avoid the idiotic dissonance of opposing a second Indy referendum while supporting a second EU referendum, mainly by being very vague about it.
Of course TRuthy was all in favour of the EU once upon a time..
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
I expect they will be due to the death of SLAB so no deal.
What do you recon to SLibDem? up or down?
Whilst in rUK the LDs are on the up, I suspect Scotland will be down or break even. If you want Indy you vote SNP and if you don't you vote Tory. If you want Brexit you vote Tory and if you don't you probably vote SNP. The LDs in Scotland have the same problem that Labour has everywhere; on the defining issues of the day, the fence is no place to be.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
The Scottish LDs actually have the pro EU and pro Union market all to themselves
Er; ....... how big is that market?
Potentially quite large given 55% of Scots voted for the Union and over 60% to stay in the EU
See your point. Could be big!
That depends entirely on the overlap. Which istm is potentially quite big. Leaving a small market by way of residue.
Besides, Labour is on the edge of that space, also.
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Globalisation and automation are inexorable and all those 'creative' middle class types in the West will soon be creating nothing but their own sorrow and anger
It'll be Jeremy Kyle for you soon.
Still the really talented British creatives will become even richer. But that means SeanT not the hipsters of Hoxton.
If you want a picture of the future Roger, imagine SeanT stamping on your face - for ever.
Even SeanT needs awful, disgusting unpatriotic publicists, publishers and marketers to promote his
I seem to have touched a sore spot.
You know I'm right.
Globalisation and automation are going to cut a swathe through middle class employment just as they did with much of the working class in previous generations.
SeanT has already mentioned this with his comments on travel writers and sub-editors.
Now the genuinely talented - SeanT for example - will still prosper, perhaps to an even greater extent.
But all those middle class professions will struggle because there will be a computer or someone in the third world able to do their work cheaper and faster than they can do.
And what will all those nice middle class types have left ?
Debts, insecure work, falling earnings, anger, housing problems and a longing for 'how things used to be'.
The middle class is by definition the middle income sector of the population with a reasonable level of education, there may emerge a growing gap between them and the rich and highly educated sector of the population as a result of globalisation and automation (with growing arguments for things like a universal income) but they will still be the middle class
There will still be middle class jobs but will there be middle class lifestyles to go with them ?
Things that were traditional middle class attributes such as secure employment, home ownership, financial security (good pensions, savings, no or low debts) are all increasingly difficult to achieve.
So what happens when people in nominally middle class employment realise that they are in socioeconomic decline ?
One aspect we're already seeing is the decline in Conservative performance in suburbia as home ownership becomes increasingly difficult in cities.
Or, to return to the beginning of the discussion, what happens to the London based 'creatives' who realise that globalisation and automation have destroyed the role they thought they would have (and acquired huge debts to do so).
Previous attempts at reviving iconic brands have not always gone so well. There were some bikes marketed as Matchless a few decades ago that were very poor.
sort of bikes being made at the moment. Cheap as chips retro bikes made in China for new British companies to 'finish' in the UK. Apparently not that bad, and especially not considering the price point. The one above costs half what my Honda CRF250L costs!
Looks interesting! a new manufacturer to me.
I have a full bike licence so the 400 appeals. It does look a good price.
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
As SCON & SLAB are linking their messages - I think we need to look at their overall 1st preference vote as the rump Unionist vote - 2012 they hit 44% (SLAB 31%/SCON 13%) - I think they'll be lucky to hit 35% between them - happy to take your £20 bet at them exceeding 35% this time around !!
If you think Con and Lab are interchangeable you've not paid attention in the last century.
FACT EU rules have weakened safety checks on doctors making patients less safe and have held back cancer research
FACT The EU is taking more control of the NHS and forcing more privatisation
FACT Labour MPs have warned that EU proposals could lead to the ‘demise of the publicly-funded National Health Service’
am I right in thinking that not only have Labour privatised more of the NHS than the Tories ever did, but that PFI is crucifying the NHS, another Brown blunder of epic proportions that we will be paying for over the next 20 yrs or so.
Not to forget that Labour were going to CUT NHS funding whilst the tories ring fenced it.....
It seems that when Labour do try to reform* the NHS, PB Tories still are not happy. What chance a bipartisan policy?
*reform (like modernise) is a weasel word that suggests improvement, while doing the opposite.
Whilst I am not a tory I am all for reform.
Who will scream the loudest about any change I wonder?
One of the NHS’s biggest problems over the past twenty years has been the desire of politicians to ‘reform’ it. Among the consequences have been a loss of morale ..... you never know how the management system works, and, too often, a need for even middle rank people to reapply for their own jobs.
I’m not at all keen on the Lansley reforms, but I would tinker with them as little as possible.... perhaps take back public health from local governement ...... but otherwise I’d leave management and staff to get on with it as far as possible for the next 20 or so years.
There is as much turnover of our middle managers as there is of football managers, and it is the same old faces recycled in the same way too.
Politicians cannot resist tinkering though. It is what they do.
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
I expect they will be due to the death of SLAB so no deal.
What do you recon to SLibDem? up or down?
Whilst in rUK the LDs are on the up, I suspect Scotland will be down or break even. If you want Indy you vote SNP and if you don't you vote Tory. If you want Brexit you vote Tory and if you don't you probably vote SNP. The LDs in Scotland have the same problem that Labour has everywhere; on the defining issues of the day, the fence is no place to be.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
The Scottish LDs actually have the pro EU and pro Union market all to themselves
That's also SLab's position, though (surprisingly for them) they've managed to avoid the idiotic dissonance of opposing a second Indy referendum while supporting a second EU referendum, mainly by being very vague about it.
Of course TRuthy was all in favour of the EU once upon a time..
Labour have now largely abandoned the EU for the single market and are not that different to the SNP in that regard, Ruth Davidson can now speak for the third of Scots who voted Leave
FACT EU rules have weakened safety checks on doctors making patients less safe and have held back cancer research
FACT The EU is taking more control of the NHS and forcing more privatisation
FACT Labour MPs have warned that EU proposals could lead to the ‘demise of the publicly-funded National Health Service’
am I right in thinking that not only have Labour privatised more of the NHS than the Tories ever did, but that PFI is crucifying the NHS, another Brown blunder of epic proportions that we will be paying for over the next 20 yrs or so.
Not to forget that Labour were going to CUT NHS funding whilst the tories ring fenced it.....
It seems that when Labour do try to reform* the NHS, PB Tories still are not happy. What chance a bipartisan policy?
*reform (like modernise) is a weasel word that suggests improvement, while doing the opposite.
Whilst I am not a tory I am all for reform.
Who will scream the loudest about any change I wonder?
One of the NHS’s biggest problems over the past twenty years has been the desire of politicians to ‘reform’ it. Among the consequences have been a loss of morale ..... you never know how the management system works, and, too often, a need for even middle rank people to reapply for their own jobs.
I’m not at all keen on the Lansley reforms, but I would tinker with them as little as possible.... perhaps take back public health from local governement ...... but otherwise I’d leave management and staff to get on with it as far as possible for the next 20 or so years.
There is as much turnover of our middle managers as tbere is of football managers, and it is the same old faces recycled in the same way too.
Politicians cannot resist tinkering though. It is what they do.
Voters demand politicians tinkering. If a party said "we have no policy on the NHS, its fine as it is, lets just leave the doctors to do their jobs" they'd get crucified by the voters.
So we shouldn't blame the politicians. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
FACT EU rules have weakened safety checks on doctors making patients less safe and have held back cancer research
FACT The EU is taking more control of the NHS and forcing more privatisation
FACT Labour MPs have warned that EU proposals could lead to the ‘demise of the publicly-funded National Health Service’
am I right in thinking that not only have Labour privatised more of the NHS than the Tories ever did, but that PFI is crucifying the NHS, another Brown blunder of epic proportions that we will be paying for over the next 20 yrs or so.
Not to forget that Labour were going to CUT NHS funding whilst the tories ring fenced it.....
It seems that when Labour do try to reform* the NHS, PB Tories still are not happy. What chance a bipartisan policy?
*reform (like modernise) is a weasel word that suggests improvement, while doing the opposite.
Whilst I am not a tory I am all for reform.
Who will scream the loudest about any change I wonder?
One of the NHS’s biggest problems over the past twenty years has been the desire of politicians to ‘reform’ it. Among the consequences have been a loss of morale ..... you never know how the management system works, and, too often, a need for even middle rank people to reapply for their own jobs.
I’m not at all keen on the Lansley reforms, but I would tinker with them as little as possible.... perhaps take back public health from local governement ...... but otherwise I’d leave management and staff to get on with it as far as possible for the next 20 or so years.
There is as much turnover of our middle managers as tbere is of football managers, and it is the same old faces recycled in the same way too.
Politicians cannot resist tinkering though. It is what they do.
Voters demand politicians tinkering. If a party said "we have no policy on the NHS, its fine as it is, lets just leave the doctors to do their jobs" they'd get crucified by the voters.
So we shouldn't blame the politicians. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
I don’t think anyones suggesting that as such. A policy of ‘we will listen to the people who are running thye NHS as to how much is is necessary, not try and fit the aservice to some pre-determined figure plucked out of the air’ might well attract support
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Globalisation and automation are inexorable and all those 'creative' middle class types in the West will soon be creating nothing but their own sorrow and anger
It'll be Jeremy Kyle for you soon.
Still the really talented British creatives will become even richer. But that means SeanT not the hipsters of Hoxton.
If you want a picture of the future Roger, imagine SeanT stamping on your face - for ever.
Even SeanT needs awful, disgusting unpatriotic publicists, publishers and marketers to promote his
I seem to have touched a sore spot.
You know I'm right.
Globalisation and automation are going to cut a swathe through alling earnings, anger, housing problems and a longing for 'how things used to be'.
The middle class is by definition the middle income sector of the population with a reasonable level of education, there may emerge iddle class
There will still be middle class jobs but will there be middle class lifestyles to go with them ?
Things that were traditional middle class attributes such as secure employment, home ownership, financial security (good pensions, savings, no or low debts) are all increasingly difficult to achieve.
So what happens when people in nominally middle class employment realise that they are in socioeconomic decline ?
One aspect we're already seeing is the decline in Conservative performance in suburbia as home ownership becomes increasingly difficult in cities.
Or, to return to the beginning of the discussion, what happens to the London based 'creatives' who realise that globalisation and automation have destroyed the role they thought they would have (and acquired huge debts to do so).
Home ownership will increasingly depend on wealth being passed from parents to children in order to get on the housing ladder but on your broader point you are correct, hence the rise of the populist anti capitalist left and nationalist anti immigration right, whether Corbyn Labour and UKIP/Leave, Melenchon and Le Pen or Sanders and Trrump is likely to continue for some time
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
I expect they will be due to the death of SLAB so no deal.
What do you recon to SLibDem? up or down?
Whilst in rUK the LDs are on the up, I suspect Scotland will be down or break even. If you want Indy you vote SNP and if you don't you vote Tory. If you want Brexit you vote Tory and if you don't you probably vote SNP. The LDs in Scotland have the same problem that Labour has everywhere; on the defining issues of the day, the fence is no place to be.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
The Scottish LDs actually have the pro EU and pro Union market all to themselves
That's also SLab's position, though (surprisingly for them) they've managed to avoid the idiotic dissonance of opposing a second Indy referendum while supporting a second EU referendum, mainly by being very vague about it.
Of course TRuthy was all in favour of the EU once upon a time..
Labour have now largely abandoned the EU for the single market and are not that different to the SNP in that regard, Ruth Davidson can now speak for the third of Scots who voted Leave
Still, fun to remind everyone of the headlines.
Ruth Davidson backs EU with or without reform - Telegraph
Ruth Davidson backs EU membership – which should worry Brexit ...
'Ruth Davidson owned Boris': readers on the EU referendum | Politics ...
Ruth talks up EU membership in major Brussels speech
A vote to leave would give fresh oxygen to Scottish nationalists
Ruth Davidson accuses Tory MP of 'lying' in EU TV debate
Politicians cannot resist tinkering though. It is what they do.
Voters demand politicians tinkering. If a party said "we have no policy on the NHS, its fine as it is, lets just leave the doctors to do their jobs" they'd get crucified by the voters.
So we shouldn't blame the politicians. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
I don’t think anyones suggesting that as such. A policy of ‘we will listen to the people who are running thye NHS as to how much is is necessary, not try and fit the aservice to some pre-determined figure plucked out of the air’ might well attract support
Something like that, anyway!
The problem is that the people running the service will always want more and the politicians have to balance that with the voters demands for other services and controlled spending.
When the politicians don't control spending, well look at Brown and see what happened next.
Here we are! Opinium 11th – 12th April Tory 38% (-3%) Labour 29% (+1%) UKIP 14% (+1%) LDem 7% (-1%) Other 12% (+2%)
Do we know to what extend, if at all, they have adjusted their methodology since the 2015 catastrophe? I remember all the post mortems that the pollsters were carrying out, but I'm not sure what conclusions they came to or what was done as a result. Probably my inattentiveness rather than any lack of info on this or other sites...
".... home ownership becomes increasingly difficult in cities ..."
I was up in Durham this last week and, as one does, took a peek into some estate agents windows. Property is insanely cheap up there. What down here in Sussex would be £1m plus can be had up there for less than £400k. A reasonable three bed semi for about £100K. Food and drink prices were pretty much on a par with the South East outside London but property was dirt cheap. Good jobs seem to be on offer too, if not in Durham itself then in towns in easy commutable distance (e.g. Darlington).
On the other side of the coin I read this morning that average house prices in London have now reached 12 times median income as opposed to 4 times in 1997.
FACT EU rules have weakened safety checks on doctors making patients less safe and have held back cancer research
FACT The EU is taking more control of the NHS and forcing more privatisation
FACT Labour MPs have warned that EU proposals could lead to the ‘demise of the publicly-funded National Health Service’
am I right in thinking .
Not to forget that Labour were going to CUT NHS funding whilst the tories ring fenced it.....
It seems that when Labour do try to reform* the NHS, PB Tories still are not happy. What chance a bipartisan policy?
*reform (like modernise) is a weasel word that suggests improvement, while doing the opposite.
Whilst I am not a tory I am all for reform.
Who will scream the loudest about any change I wonder?
One of the NHS’s biggest problems over .
There is as much turnover of our middle managers as tbere is of football managers, and it is the same old faces recycled in the same way too.
Politicians cannot resist tinkering though. It is what they do.
Voters demand politicians tinkering. If a party said "we have no policy on the NHS, its fine as it is, lets just leave the doctors to do their jobs" they'd get crucified by the voters.
So we shouldn't blame the politicians. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
I don’t think anyones suggesting that as such. A policy of ‘we will listen to the people who are running thye NHS as to how much is is necessary, not try and fit the aservice to some pre-determined figure plucked out of the air’ might well attract support
Something like that, anyway!
Medicine never stands still, it evolves constantly with the clinicians leading the changes. All to often the managers are the brakes as they do not see the advantage. I would cite laproscopic surgery as an example. There was a lot of resistance initially because of equipment costs and the early learning curve, but now we see the benefits in far shorter inpatient stays.
Recently I have been impeded in a project that delivers better patient care closer to the patients home, because of the loss of income to the acute Trust, despite there also being net savings to the entire NHS. This is what happens in an internal market system.
".... home ownership becomes increasingly difficult in cities ..."
I was up in Durham this last week and, as one does, took a peek into some estate agents windows. Property is insanely cheap up there. What down here in Sussex would be £1m plus can be had up there for less than £400k. A reasonable three bed semi for about £100K. Food and drink prices were pretty much on a par with the South East outside London but property was dirt cheap. Good jobs seem to be on offer too, if not in Durham itself then in towns in easy commutable distance (e.g. Darlington).
On the other side of the coin I read this morning that average house prices in London have now reached 12 times median income as opposed to 4 times in 1997.
Possibly the youngsters need to be looking North.
Certainly most in inner London now rent when young and unless very high earners move to the London suburbs or wider South East and Essex in order to buy
".... home ownership becomes increasingly difficult in cities ..."
I was up in Durham this last week and, as one does, took a peek into some estate agents windows. Property is insanely cheap up there. What down here in Sussex would be £1m plus can be had up there for less than £400k. A reasonable three bed semi for about £100K. Food and drink prices were pretty much on a par with the South East outside London but property was dirt cheap. Good jobs seem to be on offer too, if not in Durham itself then in towns in easy commutable distance (e.g. Darlington).
On the other side of the coin I read this morning that average house prices in London have now reached 12 times median income as opposed to 4 times in 1997.
Possibly the youngsters need to be looking North.
Similar prices in Leicester, and easy to get to the Smoke too.
SLAB still leading with vote Labour in the council elections to send a clear message to the SNP that they need to stop focusing on calling for IndyRef2 !! - Both SLAB and SCON are betting big that their overall support is going to be up on 4th May to send the SNP a message !!
I expect they will be due to the death of SLAB so no deal.
What do you recon to SLibDem? up or down?
Whilst in rUK the LDs are on the up, I suspect Scotland will be down or break even. If you want Indy you vote SNP and if you don't you vote Tory. If you want Brexit you vote Tory and if you don't you probably vote SNP. The LDs in Scotland have the same problem that Labour has everywhere; on the defining issues of the day, the fence is no place to be.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
The Scottish LDs actually have the pro EU and pro Union market all to themselves
That's also SLab's position, though (surprisingly for them) they've managed to avoid the idiotic dissonance of opposing a second Indy referendum while supporting a second EU referendum, mainly by being very vague about it.
Of course TRuthy was all in favour of the EU once upon a time..
Labour have now largely abandoned the EU for the single market and are not that different to the SNP in that regard, Ruth Davidson can now speak for the third of Scots who voted Leave
Still, fun to remind everyone of the headlines.
Ruth Davidson backs EU with or without reform - Telegraph
Ruth Davidson backs EU membership – which should worry Brexit ...
'Ruth Davidson owned Boris': readers on the EU referendum | Politics ...
Ruth talks up EU membership in major Brussels speech
A vote to leave would give fresh oxygen to Scottish nationalists
Ruth Davidson accuses Tory MP of 'lying' in EU TV debate
It at least means she is not toxic to Remainers either
".... home ownership becomes increasingly difficult in cities ..."
I was up in Durham this last week and, as one does, took a peek into some estate agents windows. Property is insanely cheap up there. What down here in Sussex would be £1m plus can be had up there for less than £400k. A reasonable three bed semi for about £100K. Food and drink prices were pretty much on a par with the South East outside London but property was dirt cheap. Good jobs seem to be on offer too, if not in Durham itself then in towns in easy commutable distance (e.g. Darlington).
On the other side of the coin I read this morning that average house prices in London have now reached 12 times median income as opposed to 4 times in 1997.
Possibly the youngsters need to be looking North.
The Land Registry figures show that house prices in several London boroughs are falling at an annualised rate of 20% since January so perhaps a correction is underway.
Lets face it Roger you're about to become as obsolete as the British motorcycle industry.
Globalisation and automation are inexorable and all those 'creative' middle class types in the West will soon be creating nothing but their own sorrow and anger
It'll be Jeremy Kyle for you soon.
Still the really talented British creatives will become even richer. But that means SeanT not the hipsters of Hoxton.
If you want a picture of the future Roger, imagine SeanT stamping on your face - for ever.
Even SeanT needs awful, disgusting unpatriotic publicists, publishers and marketers to promote his
I seem to have touched a sore spot.
You know I'm right.
Globalisation and automation are going to cut a swathe through alling earnings, anger, housing problems and a longing for 'how things used to be'.
The middle class is by definition the middle income sector of the population with a reasonable level of education, there may emerge iddle class
There will still be middle class jobs but will there be middle class lifestyles to go with them ?
Things that were traditional middle class attributes such as secure employment, home ownership, financial security (good pensions, savings, no or low debts) are all increasingly difficult to achieve.
So what happens when people in nominally middle class employment realise that they are in socioeconomic decline ?
One aspect we're already seeing is the decline in Conservative performance in suburbia as home ownership becomes increasingly difficult in cities.
Or, to return to the beginning of the discussion, what happens to the London based 'creatives' who realise that globalisation and automation have destroyed the role they thought they would have (and acquired huge debts to do so).
Home ownership will increasingly depend on wealth being passed from parents to children in order to get on the housing ladder but on your broader point you are correct, hence the rise of the populist anti capitalist left and nationalist anti immigration right, whether Corbyn Labour and UKIP/Leave, Melenchon and Le Pen or Sanders and Trrump is likely to continue for some time
In Britain at least home ownership is a necessary part of being middle class - if you can't afford a home where you live you're not really middle class.
Falling home ownership is going to have socio-political implications - from the collapse of the Conservative position in large urban areas to the bitterness those who have traditional middle class jobs but aren't home owners feel to working class home owners.
I'm green on the radicals Le Pen and Mélenchon, red on the boring Macron and Fillon. So L vs Mél and I'm quids in, and Mac vs F and I'll lose out.
The interesting cases are the other four.
L vs F L has a good chance. F is weak. The hypothetical R2 polling shows that some people who would vote for Mac against L would vote for L against F. Why is that? It can't be to do with how these voters conceive of their attitudes on the traditional political spectrum. It's because F has little appeal.
L vs Mac Mac would do better than F, but the ceiling question can be asked about him as well as about L. He's open to the criticism that he thinks friendship with Germany is the answer to France's problems. And he's not good on TV.
Mél vs F Mél has far more charisma. In the second debate, when Mél's support for a 6th republic was raised, F said he was against it because several successful countries have had long-lasting regimes. The only specific example he gave was Britain. He seemed as if he was flapping about; this isn't good ground for him. You don't have to be an "extremist" to realise that the 5th republic may not be around for much longer. It's a common view.
Mél vs Mac Mac may be labelled "centrist", but this contest too would come down to time for a change versus better the devil you know, as most elections do. France wants change. The changes proposed by Mélenchon are not only more radical - that's obvious. They're also more inspiring and more substantive. So I won't be unhappy, betwise, if these are the final two.
".... home ownership becomes increasingly difficult in cities ..."
I was up in Durham this last week and, as one does, took a peek into some estate agents windows. Property is insanely cheap up there. What down here in Sussex would be £1m plus can be had up there for less than £400k. A reasonable three bed semi for about £100K. Food and drink prices were pretty much on a par with the South East outside London but property was dirt cheap. Good jobs seem to be on offer too, if not in Durham itself then in towns in easy commutable distance (e.g. Darlington).
On the other side of the coin I read this morning that average house prices in London have now reached 12 times median income as opposed to 4 times in 1997.
Possibly the youngsters need to be looking North.
Wages are lower up here, with less jobs. There's a reason why property is cheaper especially in County Durham.
FACT EU rules have weakened safety checks on doctors making patients less safe and have held back cancer research
FACT The EU is taking more control of the NHS and forcing more privatisation
FACT Labour MPs have warned that EU proposals could lead to the ‘demise of the publicly-funded National Health Service’
am I right in thinking .
Not to forget that Labour were going to CUT NHS funding whilst the tories ring fenced it.....
It seems that when Labour do try to reform* the NHS, PB Tories still are not happy. What chance a bipartisan policy?
*reform (like modernise) is a weasel word that suggests improvement, while doing the opposite.
Whilst I am not a tory I am all for reform.
Who will scream the loudest about any change I wonder?
One of the NHS’s biggest problems over .
Politicians cannot resist tinkering though. It is what they do.
Voters demand politicians tinkering. If a party said "we have no policy on the NHS, its fine as it is, lets just leave the doctors to do their jobs" they'd get crucified by the voters.
So we shouldn't blame the politicians. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
I don’t think anyones suggesting that as such. A policy of ‘we will listen to the people who are running thye NHS as to how much is is necessary, not try and fit the aservice to some pre-determined figure plucked out of the air’ might well attract support
Something like that, anyway!
Medicine never stands still, it evolves constantly with the clinicians leading the changes. All to often the managers are the brakes as they do not see the advantage. I would cite laproscopic surgery as an example. There was a lot of resistance initially because of equipment costs and the early learning curve, but now we see the benefits in far shorter inpatient stays.
Recently I have been impeded in a project that delivers better patient care closer to the patients home, because of the loss of income to the acute Trust, despite there also being net savings to the entire NHS. This is what happens in an internal market system.
Good God, are there still arguments over moving care closer to patients homes. I was involved in trying to do that 20 years ago. I thought the light was shining.
".... home ownership becomes increasingly difficult in cities ..."
I was up in Durham this last week and, as one does, took a peek into some estate agents windows. Property is insanely cheap up there. What down here in Sussex would be £1m plus can be had up there for less than £400k. A reasonable three bed semi for about £100K. Food and drink prices were pretty much on a par with the South East outside London but property was dirt cheap. Good jobs seem to be on offer too, if not in Durham itself then in towns in easy commutable distance (e.g. Darlington).
On the other side of the coin I read this morning that average house prices in London have now reached 12 times median income as opposed to 4 times in 1997.
Possibly the youngsters need to be looking North.
Wages are lower up here, with less jobs. There's a reason why property is cheaper especially in County Durham.
We have people in outer Essex commuting one day per week, or less, and otherwise working ‘electronically’. I think there are debates around need for discussion etc. but this may be a way to go.
I don’t think anyones suggesting that as such. A policy of ‘we will listen to the people who are running thye NHS as to how much is is necessary, not try and fit the aservice to some pre-determined figure plucked out of the air’ might well attract support
Something like that, anyway!
I doubt that the country could afford to leave it to the suppliers to decide how much should be spent, Mr. Cole. There are after all other legitimate demands on the public purse. Furthermore, experience of the Brown years shows that turning on the money taps does not of itself result in a commensurate improvement in outcomes, and that is not only in relation to the NHS.
Comments
Wales voted by a tiny whisker for devolution but the level of day to day change for the vast bulk of the populace was very very limited. It's accepted and (ironically, as it was only ever an add on to Scotland and N Ireland ) works reasonably as Blair intended, I guess, for all its imperfections.
52 v 48% last June was narrow but clear, and involved more change, sure, but again, on a day to day basis, for the vast bulk of folk won't make that much difference. Sure some will be very profoundly affected but many more barely at all.
What if Ms Sturgeon inherits a country where she's won 50.1 - 49.9% , and the 49.9% are seriously unaccepting of a change that really is change ( your money, your taxes, your armed forces, your nationality etc etc). Would a significant number head south and leave? I don't know, I don't live there. Maybe the feeling is the 49% would rally behind the new situation. It may be a landslide for independence of course, but at present it will most likely be close (ish) if it does happen, and would contrast with the situation in 1918 in what became the Free State, where my understanding is that Sinn Fein won very very clearly indeed.
A shame because she's quite sweet and easy to care for. You just need to dust the urn once a week.
The Clarity Act enables the losers of the referendum to claim that the result is not valid because the subsequent legislation violated the Clarity Act.
The whole purpose of the magnificently titled Clarity Act is to create a Lack of Clarity. The threshold which the Quebec secessionists now have to attain has become much murkier.
He isn't a flashy fellow, and lives outside the M25 so not particularly known to the media.
The Scottish LDs should go pro-Indy. And get there before SLab does.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/15/only-45-of-labour-voters-think-corbyn-would-be-best-pm-poll?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
I am not stating whether the 79 or 97 principles were right or wrong, just pointing out that there are counterexamples to what you suggest.
The argument will be made: why should David Cameron's government have decided once and for all what the conditions of the referendum should be?
We've been told endlessly on here that it just cannot happen.
* or if behind fall a little bit further behind.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/15/only-45-of-labour-voters-think-corbyn-would-be-best-pm-poll
Previous attempts at reviving iconic brands have not always gone so well. There were some bikes marketed as Matchless a few decades ago that were very poor.
Triumph works a bit like Brompton, apealing to style and quality conscious consumers. People are buying a lifestyle rather than just transport. For both there are cheaper alternatives, but there are for Jaguars too.
Considering the ownership of British motor vehhicle factories, Triumph may well be the largest volume British owned vehicle manufacturer.
Long term globalisation means that all global wages will tend toward the mean, and at the moment that mean is considerable below were we are, so there really is only one way to go in relative terms for all of the EU.
Hopefully there will be some caricoles left ... snails are a local Easter dish.
I'll leave your observations on the Coalition for another time. I think the country benefited hugely from stable Government from 2010-15 but from the word go it was always going to be a one-off one-term arrangement specifically to provide that stability.
The wilful misrepresentation of the LD and Tim Farron's position is to be expected but needs to be challenged. Tim and the LDs are not proposing a "re-run" of the 2016 referendum but are proposing a referendum on the outcome of the A50 negotiations - the final Treaty (assuming there is one).
I have two problems with that position:
1) There's no scope for referenda within the A50 process. The final Treaty does have to be ratified by both the UK Government and the 27 EU Governments and it's not hard to imagine some problems with both. The negotiation period could be extended (whatever the rules currently say) if Poland or Croatia or Spain or whoever is sticking on a point.
2) What kind of Treaty would clear the UK Parliament ? I am opposed to the Single Market and Freedom of Movement but that doesn't mean I don't want a mutually advantageous economic arrangement with the EU. I also want a clear immigration policy applicable to all which allows for genuine refugees and the skills our economy needs but which may lack.
I suspect that's not where Tim and the LDs are though I could be wrong and until we see a negotiated Treaty it will be hard to judge.
Hmm.
He was 34 to win before practice. .... We'll see how the odds change.
Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, if the gap's actually been cut that'd be bloody astonishing. Red Bull were a long way off the pace previously.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention
Opinium do tend to have smaller leads, one way or the other, than YouGov and ICM.
In all honesty, given the shambles Labour are in, and the leadership, it shows their strength that they still can get within 10!
Though if it gives you the chance to lay your Red Bull bet at a profit...
An interesting question would be if the top teams might split tyre strategies in qualifying. There might be some advantage to be gained starting the race on the softs, and saving the SS for the final stint of the race, when the car weight is lower and the track cooler ?
Bit hard to tell, as there has been so little representative practice.
Betting PostHamilton's 1.72 for pole with Betfair. Backed it, despite the short odds.
http://www.muttmotorcycles.com/mutt-mongrel/
sort of bikes being made at the moment. Cheap as chips retro bikes made in China for new British companies to 'finish' in the UK. Apparently not that bad, and especially not considering the price point. The one above costs half what my Honda CRF250L costs!
At the end of January, Opinium had a 7% Tory lead, whilst ICM + YouGov were at 14+15%.
Not able to hedge the Constructors' bet, but, if I can, I don't expect that for a few months anyway.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/bahrain-pre-qualifying-2017.html
Thai delicacies inclide grssshoppers. Not keen myself; the legs get in the way. Prefer the very small frogs they gut and deep-fry. Bit like a somewhat larger version of whitebait./
Let's hope Hamilton gets pole, then gets swamped by Red Bulls off the line (unless my bets mean this would not maximise profitability).
Good afternoon, everyone.
The middle class is by definition the middle income sector of the population with a reasonable level of education, there may emerge a growing gap between them and the rich and highly educated sector of the population as a result of globalisation and automation (with growing arguments for things like a universal income) but they will still be the middle class
Who will scream the loudest about any change I wonder?
I’m not at all keen on the Lansley reforms, but I would tinker with them as little as possible.... perhaps take back public health from local governement ...... but otherwise I’d leave management and staff to get on with it as far as possible for the next 20 or so years.
Of course TRuthy was all in favour of the EU once upon a time..
Besides, Labour is on the edge of that space, also.
Opinium 11th – 12th April
Tory 38% (-3%)
Labour 29% (+1%)
UKIP 14% (+1%)
LDem 7% (-1%)
Other 12% (+2%)
Things that were traditional middle class attributes such as secure employment, home ownership, financial security (good pensions, savings, no or low debts) are all increasingly difficult to achieve.
So what happens when people in nominally middle class employment realise that they are in socioeconomic decline ?
One aspect we're already seeing is the decline in Conservative performance in suburbia as home ownership becomes increasingly difficult in cities.
Or, to return to the beginning of the discussion, what happens to the London based 'creatives' who realise that globalisation and automation have destroyed the role they thought they would have (and acquired huge debts to do so).
I have a full bike licence so the 400 appeals. It does look a good price.
Politicians cannot resist tinkering though. It is what they do.
Includes tables as download.
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-11th-april-2017/
So we shouldn't blame the politicians. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
Something like that, anyway!
Ruth Davidson backs EU with or without reform - Telegraph
Ruth Davidson backs EU membership – which should worry Brexit ...
'Ruth Davidson owned Boris': readers on the EU referendum | Politics ...
Ruth talks up EU membership in major Brussels speech
A vote to leave would give fresh oxygen to Scottish nationalists
Ruth Davidson accuses Tory MP of 'lying' in EU TV debate
When the politicians don't control spending, well look at Brown and see what happened next.
I was up in Durham this last week and, as one does, took a peek into some estate agents windows. Property is insanely cheap up there. What down here in Sussex would be £1m plus can be had up there for less than £400k. A reasonable three bed semi for about £100K. Food and drink prices were pretty much on a par with the South East outside London but property was dirt cheap. Good jobs seem to be on offer too, if not in Durham itself then in towns in easy commutable distance (e.g. Darlington).
On the other side of the coin I read this morning that average house prices in London have now reached 12 times median income as opposed to 4 times in 1997.
Possibly the youngsters need to be looking North.
Recently I have been impeded in a project that delivers better patient care closer to the patients home, because of the loss of income to the acute Trust, despite there also being net savings to the entire NHS. This is what happens in an internal market system.
Falling home ownership is going to have socio-political implications - from the collapse of the Conservative position in large urban areas to the bitterness those who have traditional middle class jobs but aren't home owners feel to working class home owners.
The interesting cases are the other four.
L vs F
L has a good chance. F is weak. The hypothetical R2 polling shows that some people who would vote for Mac against L would vote for L against F. Why is that? It can't be to do with how these voters conceive of their attitudes on the traditional political spectrum. It's because F has little appeal.
L vs Mac
Mac would do better than F, but the ceiling question can be asked about him as well as about L. He's open to the criticism that he thinks friendship with Germany is the answer to France's problems. And he's not good on TV.
Mél vs F
Mél has far more charisma. In the second debate, when Mél's support for a 6th republic was raised, F said he was against it because several successful countries have had long-lasting regimes. The only specific example he gave was Britain. He seemed as if he was flapping about; this isn't good ground for him. You don't have to be an "extremist" to realise that the 5th republic may not be around for much longer. It's a common view.
Mél vs Mac
Mac may be labelled "centrist", but this contest too would come down to time for a change versus better the devil you know, as most elections do. France wants change. The changes proposed by Mélenchon are not only more radical - that's obvious. They're also more inspiring and more substantive. So I won't be unhappy, betwise, if these are the final two.
There's a reason why property is cheaper especially in County Durham.