Well its official. My Newcastle born Labour/Lib Dem voting Dad who has lived in Solihull for the last 30 years is voting for the Tory candidate in the WM majority elections.
What swung him, if I may ask? If he has voted Labour and LD, presumably not of the one true faith of Corbynism?
Well, Solihull always was a Tory safe seat so he voted Lib Dem as the alternative. He admires John Lewis and what Andy Street has achieved. He also thinks Corbyn and anyone associated with him is a shambles.
I don't even think Americans are as committed to home ownership as we have been, partly because their suburban houses are glorified garden sheds (wood, felt roofs) and clearly aren't appreciating assets. They rot, burn and can be eaten by termites.
No house is an appreciating asset as a result of how it's made. It only appreciates when demand increases - in the British context, demand that is either highly debt-fuelled (setting prices in the vast majority of the market) or a result of the very rich getting relatively richer (the top part of the market).
And wood is a great material for a house.
The notion of property as an appreciating asset is a particularly British fixation.
Until the post 9/11 property bubble inflation adjusted American house prices were flat for the previous century.
Japanese houses deprecate at lightning speed.
Wood is good, within reasonable reach of the fire service (most of the UK is OK). Yes, houses appreciate due to
a) scarcity/not building enough b) credit.
My parents bought their first house for £500 (1956). Equivalent to £20,000 today. In those days, brick houses were also regarded as depreciating assets. That attitude soon ended.
More seriously I would expect peak Nat to be around 2018-19. After that there will be too many awkward domestic questions about their record in government and the beahviour of their members for them to rise much higher, and independence will either have been achieved or brushed off the table for good. This may therefore be their peak year in terms of electoral results.
I think peak SNP happened in May 2015.
I think peak SNP happened between May and Septemper 2015.
David, many thanks for this very informative guide to the upcoming elections and the various possible implications of the results for all parties.
'the 2017 Scottish local elections are the last set in which the SNP can make sizable gains, which after 2015 and 2016, is the minimum expected. Salmond talked about gaining Glasgow in 2012; his successor should pull off the feat. That alone would make for a good night, though outside Scotland few will notice the detail, particularly as the STV system means not that many seats will change compared with FPTP, and most councils will end up NOC anyway.'
It is worth pointing out that its now been six years since Scotland last held local council elections, and they were last held at the same time that the SNP gained their historic majority win at Holyrood in 2011. More importantly, that was over three years before the Independence Referendum was held.
To say that a week can be a long time in politics is an understatement when you consider just how the political landscape in Scotland has changed in the last six years. There is absolutely no doubt that the SNP are totally focussed on finally gaining control of Glasgow Council after they routed SLab in the city in the 2015 and 2016 GE and Holyrood elections. Anything less than gaining full control of Glasgow City Council should be seen as yet another set back personally for Nicola Sturgeon and her SNP Government following their failure to retain their majority at Holyrood last year.
Last Scottish local elections were in 2012, not 2011. Apparently they aren't supposed to clash with the Scottish Parliament elections, and the knock on effect of the Scottish Parliament elections now effectively happening every five years to avoid clashing with the UK General Election (one of the additional unfortunate consequences of the Fixed Term Parliament act) means that Scottish local elections now appear to have become every 5 years as well (at least until something happens to break the 5 year UK Parliament electoral cycle)
Thanks Alex, you are absolutely right, I had a blonde moment there and forgot that the locals decoupled from the Holyrood elections in 2011 and were held the next year.
Look what supporting the UK did to Labour in Scotland ? We were correctly labelled Tory poodle because that is what we were and still are. SLAB should be independent and then should come out for independence.
That view sums up exactly all that is wrong with the current Labour party North and South of the border! Lisa Nandy saw Ruth Davidson's advice to her on the state of the Labour party in Opposition through the prism of any advice from the Tories as being toxic, rather than from someone who has successfully stepped in to provide the strong Opposition that was so lacking from SLab as the main Opposition to the SNP from 2007 onwards.
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He admires John Lewis and what Andy Street has achieved. He also thinks Corbyn and anyone associated with him is a shambles.
a) scarcity/not building enough
b) credit.
My parents bought their first house for £500 (1956). Equivalent to £20,000 today. In those days, brick houses were also regarded as depreciating assets. That attitude soon ended.