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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest French Presidential betting has Marine Le Pen with
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest French Presidential betting has Marine Le Pen with an 87% chance of making it to the final two
With the French presidential election moving into the final two weeks I thought it might be useful to look at the betting by concentrating on who will make it to the final two. That runoff election takes places a fortnight later on the Sunday after British locals.
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Comme Mme le Pen
The Middlesbrough local by election result is a stunning victory for the Tories, The FIRST Tory councillor EVER in Middlesbrough..
HOw would you explain it? Local factors?
Its right to question their undoubted local election successes given how low they languish in the National polls.
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/852734591873957888
interest rates are at an all time low and I doubt too many people will shed tears on rich people paying fees.
Valuations are stratospheric on a wave of cheap money. Any fool can make money paying up for quality assets with debt.
Rising interest rates will make that harder - and sort the sheep from the goats
(BTW, given Jon's track record - CityPost, Jaeger, etc - why do people quote him as some sort of expert?)
http://uk.businessinsider.com/justine-greening-removes-poorest-children-from-statistics-justifying-grammar-schools-2017-4
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/9243/manchester-gorton?page=61
Edit, go to bottom of page.
You need to bear this in mind when thinking about who will turn out on election day.
Maybe, for the LibDems, that is getting more difficult lately?
It was an 8% swing, which towards a sitting government is impressive, but it is not as if the Tories came from nowhere to win.
That escalated quickly.
The lack of Lib Dem candidates is a pure coincidence.
Edit - no, it seems deliberate.
However, Rayner is herself also less than honest with statsistics. The reality is of course that in only two counties (off the top of my head) have a compulsory 11-plus. In those counties (like say, Gloucestershire) which have an extensive grammar school system but where selection is not compulsory it is the pushier parents (who tend to be middle class) who put their children in for the exam, and therefore by an astonishing coincidence dominate the intake.
The counties that should be used for statistics are Buckinghamshire and Kent, not the country as a whole.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/04/daniel-hannan-spicer-didnt-deny-the-holocaust-but-the-twitter-mob-simply-doesnt-care.html
If we do, I will of course laugh at people who think they are meaningful.
Why cannot Tories simply be honest and say that they want more Grammar schools because upper middle class people don't want to be educated alongside the plebs? Why do they have to pretend that they are doing the plebs a favour?
However, my experience of working in an LEA school controlled by Labour (in Bristol) was that they wanted everyone to fail or at least be forced to the speed of the slowest in the name of 'inclusivity'. Which is actually much worse.
There is a good argument that Zyklon B, etc, as used by Hitler were not "chemical weapons" in that they were not used on a battlefield. Instead they were chemicals used to commit mass murder. A fine distinction, but an important one - rather like the UK government treating the PIRA as murderers rather than terrorists.
Incidentaly I understand..... TBH, think it was quoted here ....... that none of the Kipper Councillors are defending their seats, although an Independent first elected as a Kipper is. And UKIP aren’t standing in that seat.
Much to our concern our son has pushed his children to ‘get into’ grammar school; so far the eldest has done so and seems to be doing OK, although he now has few if any ‘local’ friends.
The main reasons the Nazis did not use chemical weapons were because chemical weapons did not suit their war of manoeuvre system, not scruples about international conventions.
However, the alternative was a comp with considerable autonomy and a full mix of abilities.
No way would I ever advise anyone who has any other option to put their child into a state school in Bristol, with maybe two exceptions - and that hasn't changed now they are all run by academy chains, as they are making an even worse mess of things (hard though that is to believe).
However, even in the 1960s grammars had a reputation for middle-class dominance (deserved or not).
G(German, Latin and French)) L (Latin and French) and M (French only)
These streams were inevitably renamed. Genius, Learned and Moron.
Why do opponents of grammar schools delight in painting social concern as elitism? And why do they use such objectionable terms when doing it?
I do wonder if Melenchon will be like Clegg in 2010.
http://app.ft.com/content/cb1e02f4-7461-3fd1-ac5d-9fd9befb20dd
It will be ignored as usual in favour of a cascade of anecdotes of how individual pbers escaped the salt mines, went to a grammar school and are now stalwarts of the local golf club.
https://theconversation.com/grammar-schools-why-academic-selection-only-benefits-the-very-affluent-74189
"Let’s look at two children – one from the poorest SES quintile and one from the least deprived SES quintile – both performing at the 80th percentile of the Key Stage 2 distribution. Despite the same level of academic attainment, our analysis shows that the most deprived pupil has only a 25% chance of attending a grammar compared to a 70% chance for the least deprived pupil."
The largest concentration of migrants is moving to London. London generally has a younger population than the rest of the country. London is the least British demographic in the country yet also has the largest number of unfilled care worker vacancies.
When I lived in Gloucestershire I was quite heavily involved in the 11-plus system and as it was voluntary (I think there may also be a fee to sit it, although I'm not sure of that) every child was middle class. Although I taught in Gloucester, which isn't a wealthy city, I'd guess 70% of the pupils came from Cheltenham or the Cotswolds. There were about five whose accent identified them as 'true Gloucester'.
That doesn't seem sensible to me. Either you have selection or you don't. You shouldn't have a mish-mash. But hey, what do I know? I'm just a teacher.
Incidentally it's also supposed to be impossible to coach children to pass the new 11-plus. I treat that claim with due scepticism but the exams have changed a lot even in the last five years. However if bright poor children never sit them anyway that's no gain.
It would be more accurate to compare, say, the top 25% of state schools. If grammar schools have a reputation for being good that will increase house prices and alter local demographics. The same will happen with good state schools.
Comparing a number that includes incredibly rubbish schools, average schools and good schools against schools that should (in theory) only be good is not a meaningful or useful statistical approach.
It's the broad-brush daftness that leads to the complaining about a wage gap.
Of course grammars will currently benefit the middle classes - they're located in largely middle class counties/areas of counties....
Put some Grammar schools in Bootle and then we'll see some changes in this country.
The MOAB bomb in Afghanistan is an interesting weapon. It seems to be designed to send a fatal shockwave through hardened complexes and tunnels. Surely the Afghan bomb is a bit of field testing for use against the North Koreans?
North Korea has a lot of long range artillary in bunkers. MOAB would seem to be the best counter weapon.
Incidentally house prices in Dover are some of the cheapest in the SE but it has a boys and girls grammar.
If they want grammar schools to be popular, and win them Tory votes then build them in leafy areas.
I think we should spend more time looking at education systems that work for the next 80% (Germany, Switzerland and Sweden would be a good place to start), and less timing harking back to the past.
Just look at the history of the human race. Or consider the relative fame of Julius Caesar and Antoninus Pius. Practically everybody's heard of the former, practically nobody of the latter. The former was embroiled in massive wars and got murdered. The latter inherited a pretty peaceful empire, left it the same way, and had a peaceful transition from his reign to that of Lucius Verus and Marcus Aurelius.
Dr. Foxinsox, interesting point on the Washpot [Stephen Fry wrote a book entitled 'Moab is my washpot'. I tried reading a little but the endlessly meandering annoyed me within three sentences].
Working class parents (I don't mean middle class luvvies) love grammar schools, Labour should pledge to create one in every one of the seats they win.
Working class people aren't afraid of competition and failure, they live with it all their lives, its the poncy middle classes that are squeamish.
I find it quite amazing that so many in Labour, having taken advantage of grammar schools for themselves (and often their own kids), seem determined to pull up the ladder behind them.