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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is organisation more than BREXIT that is driving the Lib De
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is organisation more than BREXIT that is driving the Lib Dem resurgence
The latest local by elections with an LD gain from UKIP on a whopping 26% swing top off what has been a good week for the LDs. Firstly there have been the Rallings/Thrasher and Lord Robert Hayward May elections’ projection suggesting that the yellows are in for a substantial number of gains on May 4th.
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Interesting question for the Tories come 2020 (and possibly in by-elections sooner) - if they lack the local organisation, will they be as ready to fling bus loads of activists at marginals, given the scrutiny they'll now come under......
Can Gorton get them back up to double figures?!?!?
No.
No other party is showing a net increase in seats held since GE2015
I think the Democrats filibustered because of the base (who, looking at twitter are VERY anti-Gorsuch - they see him as anti-woman and a Scalia clone among many other things) and the Senate Committee Hearings, with Gorsuch dodging quite a few questions which I think was the trigger which led to such Democrat opposition.
Talking to SeanF recently on here, he doesn't seem to think the Dems can take back the Senate. So they are going to have to pray that Kennedy doesn't retire, that Ginsburg (who is pretty old now) doesn't die, and that Beyer doesn't retire/die either.
Now I agree with what @rcs1000 has been saying about the polling companies having to push down the number of 2015 Lib Dem voters, but when it comes to it, I think a lot of the South West will return a Tory again. What will help the Lib Dems in these seats is the perception that the Tories will win and, at the very least, be the largest party in a hung parliament.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4390764/Terror-suspect-wrestled-floor-Swedish-police.html
A purely price based exercise:
Bet365 are doing a genuinely fantastic National offer - 1/2 stakes back, 5 places and also an enhanced 6 place market (Though slightly reduced prices on this market)
Anyway taking Betfair midpoint prices as "correct", I make the following value :
29 Vicente @ 25-1 (5 places)
17 Definitely Red @ 11-1 (6 places)
2 More of that @ 11-1 (6 places)
34 Rogue Angel @ 25-1 (5 places)
28 Saint Are @ 40-1 (5 places)
10 Blaklion @ 14-1 (5 places)
With the half stakes back you can EXPECT to come out ahead (If Betfair is correct), obviously it is a horse race so VARIANCE is high !
Twickenham, Kingston and Bath, yes. Chippenham, Taunton Deane and Wells, no.
Oh dear, an opportunity for all those who don't like the LDs to slag them off. Whether Llama's antics are typical or atypical remains to be seen.
It's valid to ask how Conservative controlled County Councils have been performing (and in Cornwall an LD-Indy coalition) and to criticise that performance.
Listening to some on here, you'd thinking voting (or even thinking about voting) anyone other than the Conservative Party candidate is an act of treason or blasphemy (or both).
I said earlier winning Cornwall is a big ask for the LDs - the losses of 2009 (especially) and 2013 will take more than one attempt to eradicate there and elsewhere. My expectation would be more about making gains than taking Councils as the Conservatives are boosted by the collapse of UKIP.
I was hoping to get Senior but he was obviously napping.
Looks like he is awake now though.
Game on!
However as they have no ability to mount any sort of media campaign they're not going anywhere just yet.
They have a sort of half-Corbyn figure in Farron. He's awful as a possible PM, but he is perhaps great as a rallying force behind the scenes. (Corbyn of course is awful at both)
They also have an issue with their prior stars - Clegg has become a frothing Euro-loon, and I say this as someone that likes him personally.
David Milliband has been matched as short as 10s on BF to be next PM - that's insane, but not if you realise how empty the middle ground is. Farron's LD's certainly arent't there.
A sane, and taller, LD leader has the chance to do something remarkable. The same applies to a centrist breakaway Labour faction. However I hope that the Tories can fight off whoever throws their hats into the ring - they have the benefit of the right end of the argument.
I think there's a big argument for moving the race to the end of February but the traditionalists aren't interested.
I've backed SAPHIR DU RHEU e/w at 25/1. I like horses that have run well in the Gold Cup coming on to Aintree. There's a query over stamina but there is about a number of the fancied horses but he jumps well and goes on the ground.
BTW, apologies for mixing up the figures on the last thread for a hypothetical Macron-Melanchon matchup - Macron led by 57-43 in that case, rather than trailing by that about.
I think that Le Pen is completely toast but I'm starting to think that her opponent is not quite so certain, and Macron's current 1.7ish seems about right. Laying her rather than backing him seems sensible.
UKIP are quite a new party and grew pretty big very quickly after 2010. Most of their activists (I guess I was one) have probably been at it less than five years, and have already seen the big prize won, plus a couple of high profile by elections and the Euros. I can only speak for myself, but the appeal of pounding the streets so UKIP gain control of Hacton Ward in Hornchurch isn't really that strong now we are leaving the EU. Lib Dems probably have thousands of veterans that have been campaigning on locals for years and so still get fired up for them
With the French names I imagined that they were side markets on the French Presidency.
Labour defence list:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=0
Or possibly not notice the huge over-round on the market (I'm guessing here).
Wales I guess there's more Lab to take, I might have been a bit England centric.
Getting up to 14 would be a serious achievement for them. 20 might make MarkSenior even more excitable...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4390480/Belgium-DROPS-terror-charges-against-Tunisian-man.html
He was clearly just popping in town...by popping into town I mean driving to a different country.
He shares Paddy Ashdown's energy and enthusiasm and there are clear parallels between the State of the Party in 1989 and 2015. After the merger debacle, Paddy spent the next three years re-building the base and Farron is trying to do something similar.
The Conservatives aren't going to be able to square the circle of being all things to all people indefinitely and the day they lose power they will be as relevant as UKIP are now.
I'm conscious that she's under-performed before, and that the right have been under-estimated before. Macron is a maverick nutter - or at least that's how he'd have been judged in the past. French politics is insane at the moment - their 'conservatives' mostly live in the UK and as such vote with their hearts rather than their wallets.
If nothing else think of the children ................ making Mrs JackW's shoes and how they're paid for.
To answer Mikes point, no. If organisation is the explanation then why the change ? Has Libdem organisation got a lot better, very quickly ?
Currently, Labour claim more than 5 times as many members as The Libdems but it seems to be doing them no good at all. A huge salesforce is no use if your product is crap. Some voters, actually lots of voters quite like The Libdem brand - thats why their much smaller salesforce is taking market share.
On the Polls, The Libdems have been going up for most of the last year, by around 1% every 3 Months; its painfully slow but it still adds up.Is it surprising that Polls often lag behind reality on the ground ? Most voters arent exposed to active politics except at Elections, they depend on the media who are only interested in splits & scandals. In Media terms The Libdems have no "story" to them at all.
I'm sure that at times when the issues are big then the governments course becomes pretty clear. An opposition is more challenged in that it has to be more radical in order to seem different in the stronger tide.
In the way that taxpayers money can be thrown away on some trendy London gimmick with proper procedures being overruled or ignored it remind me of the Kids Company disgrace.
Isn't it about time some politicians got surcharged ?
Le Pen 23%
Macron 23%
Fillon 19%
Mélenchon 19%
Hamon 8.5%
Dupont-Aignan 3.5%
Macron's support for the US attack on Syria won't win him any votes.
The current Tory Mp has been absent so far. The former high profile Lib Dem made sure to attend not just local business and NHS events. But even the smallest, most tedious of local hamlet's bring and buys and church roof fundraisers. At least one in each over a five year period.
The new MP barley attends a major event.
though many people have no wish to see the terrible economic incompetence of the former Liberals return, they also, i believe, would welcome a local MP who at least pays lip service to their views. The liberals never went away. They received an enormous kicking for the coalition. but even more for the lying. That won't continue indefinitely.
The only problem to a comfortable Lib Dem majority is that of the usual two faces one for the liberal. They are the party of remain in the heart of brexit.
Tim Farron's decision to be the 'vote again until we agree to stay' party, is not as sound as it appears. He should be leading the party of 'seek to rejoin the EU'. That way the usual Lib dem face both ways trick is not so difficult to pull off.
1st round
Le Pen 24.5%
Macron 23.5%
Fillon 18.5%
Melenchon 17%
Hamon 9.5%
Dupont-Aignan 4.5%
Runoff Macron 59% Le Pen 41%
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_07-04-2017.pdf
Whereas those can't be arsed to do anything when they would be the beneficiary aren't likely to do much for their constituents if elected.
The French officials who liaise with Germany and the EU are probably saying he's a shoe-in, and don't worry and stuff, but his poll scores may well be about to fall.
He reminds me so much of Muttley:
Labour faced another day of turmoil after Jeremy Corbyn condemned the missile strikes in Syria to the disgust of many of his parliamentary colleagues."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-mps-appalled-at-corbyn-attack-on-syria-airstrikes-wcfkkbsdk
https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/04/07/green-party-statement-on-us-airstrikes-in-syria/
Anyway, I must be off.
There are some obvious people.
However your example is poor - the evil baggage that is batmanwoman is oddly not behind bars. Neither is it true that the people that fanned her flame have had their nether regions removed.
The feteing of these awful people by the establishment is shocking. Some of universities that aspire to greatness have disgraced themselves once again.
For starters, was it regular Sarin?
Our local council also wastes money on a news letter/newspaper that also heads the same way. The council asked for feedback, and I told them stop wasting money on this crap, they ignored my suggestion and continue to waste money.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/07_04_17_garden_bridge_report.pdf
A great quote from it:
"Boris Johnson himself reflected the confusion of purpose when he was asked about it by The New Civil Engineer, in January 2014. They reported he "wasn’t really sure what it was for", other than making a "wonderful environment for a crafty cigarette or a romantic assignation."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Syria
I doubt that many Muslims in this country have much affection for Assad - certainly not if they are Sunni
The question is not how much swing there is from CON to LD, but where ?
Making impure nerve agents is perfectly possible in a crude, home made setup (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aum_Shinrikyo).
High purity takes a more sophisticated operation.