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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two seats which UKIP won last time amongst tonight’s local ele

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  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scott_P said:

    chestnut said:

    TM the PM is certainly correct in saying that no deal is better than a bad deal.

    Bollocks
    Why accept a bad deal when 88% of the global economy is on offer outside the EU and there is plenty of scope for internal adjustment?
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    chestnut said:

    TM the PM is certainly correct in saying that no deal is better than a bad deal.

    Bollocks
    You reckon a bad deal is better than no deal? Why?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Re: term-holidays
    The reason for this is probably the same as the reason we can't have lots of nice things we'd like: people taking the piss.

    Another way of thinking about it: if you want the state to educate your child, you have to abide by the state's rules. Discuss...

    And yet they are not going after those taking the piss. They are instead criminalising the otherwise law abiding so it looks like they are doing something. Discuss.
    A different judgement would have been a significant indicator that it would be fine to take children out of school during term time. Now, I'm sure the vast majority of parents wouldn't do so because they recognise the damage it might do, but that leaves a significant number of parents who would perceive this as a green light. With the concomitant disruption to both the children taken out of school, and those left behind, that that would entail.

    Find me an educator who disagrees with the judgement.
    Find me an educator who has to work through the entire school holidays.
    Educators don't go and remove the customers of parents when they feel like it with all the disruption that does to their working day but as I said a 2 week annual termtime holiday allowance per pupil would be a reasonable compromise
    It's the educators and the government [and this judgement] that are objecting to flexibility to take 2 weeks off not me.

    It is a ridiculous situation whereby parents have an entitlement to 5.6 weeks off per year but not one of those days is fixed (some businesses are open 365 days a year), while students get 0 flexible days off per year.
    As I said I would agree to a week allowance per year provided parents made up for the extra revision time themselves and no more than 10% of a class could be absent at any one time
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tlg86 said:

    We've just had a Lib Dem leaflet put through the door. Had it focussed entirely on the omnishambles at Surrey County Council and provision of services in the county, I might have considered voting for them. But as it they are telling me that Brexit is a complete fuck up and everyone in Woking will lose their jobs.

    Which part of their leaflet is wrong ?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    Fillon hit with flour at campaign rally
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39521564
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Re: term-holidays
    The reason for this is probably the same as the reason we can't have lots of nice things we'd like: people taking the piss.

    Another way of thinking about it: if you want the state to educate your child, you have to abide by the state's rules. Discuss...

    And yet they are not going after those taking the piss. They are instead criminalising the otherwise law abiding so it looks like they are doing something. Discuss.
    A different judgement would have been a significant indicator that it would be fine to take children out of school during term time. Now, I'm sure the vast majority of parents wouldn't do so because they recognise the damage it might do, but that leaves a significant number of parents who would perceive this as a green light. With the concomitant disruption to both the children taken out of school, and those left behind, that that would entail.

    Find me an educator who disagrees with the judgement.
    Find me an educator who has to work through the entire school holidays.
    Educators don't go and remove the customers of parents when they feel like it with all the disruption that does to their working day but as I said a 2 week annual termtime holiday allowance per pupil would be a reasonable compromise
    It's the educators and the government [and this judgement] that are objecting to flexibility to take 2 weeks off not me.

    It is a ridiculous situation whereby parents have an entitlement to 5.6 weeks off per year but not one of those days is fixed (some businesses are open 365 days a year), while students get 0 flexible days off per year.
    As I said I would agree to a week allowance per year provided parents made up for the extra revision time themselves and no more than 10% of a class could be absent at any one time
    Tell that to the government and the teaching unions.

    A week isn't an especially long time either. If circumstances require it why not 5.6 weeks? If it's appropriate to take 5.6 weeks holiday throughout the year, why should those denied holidays during school holidays be denied that?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:

    tlg86 said:

    We've just had a Lib Dem leaflet put through the door. Had it focussed entirely on the omnishambles at Surrey County Council and provision of services in the county, I might have considered voting for them. But as it they are telling me that Brexit is a complete fuck up and everyone in Woking will lose their jobs.

    Which part of their leaflet is wrong ?
    'Brexit is a complete fuck up and everyone in Woking will lose their jobs'
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Danny565 said:



    I can't see the average Kipper voter from 2015 being happy with immigration carrying on as now, but being comforted by the fact the British government might technically have the "control" to change it but choose not to.

    IMO, the main reason that so many Kippers have gone back to the Tories since the referendum is precisely because they think May's going to get a big cut in numbers of immigrants as soon as we're officially Out.

    image
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Danny565 said:

    calum said:
    First, I'm not really sure a lot of people understand what "free movement of people" is (I always used to think it meant going through Customs with fewer checks when going on holiday, rather than a right to emigrate permanently).

    Second, even on those figures, 29% is a pretty good target pool for UKIP, by their standards.
    I don't think many politicians understand it ! - TBF Boris does
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    edited April 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Re: term-holidays
    The reason for this is probably the same as the reason we can't have lots of nice things we'd like: people taking the piss.

    Another way of thinking about it: if you want the state to educate your child, you have to abide by the state's rules. Discuss...

    And yet they are not going after those taking the piss. They are instead criminalising the otherwise law abiding so it looks like they are doing something. Discuss.
    A different judgement would have been a significant indicator that it would be fine to take children out of school during term time. Now, I'm sure the vast majority of parents wouldn't do so because they recognise the damage it might do, but that leaves a significant number of parents who would perceive this as a green light. With the concomitant disruption to both the children taken out of school, and those left behind, that that would entail.

    Find me an educator who disagrees with the judgement.
    Find me an educator who has to work through the entire school holidays.
    Educators don't go and remove the customers of parents when they feel like it with all the disruption that does to their working day but as I said a 2 week annual termtime holiday allowance per pupil would be a reasonable compromise
    It's the educators and the government [and this judgement] that are objecting to flexibility to take 2 weeks off not me.

    It is a ridiculous situation whereby parents have an entitlement to 5.6 weeks off per year but not one of those days is fixed (some businesses are open 365 days a year), while students get 0 flexible days off per year.
    As I said I would agree to a week allowance per year provided parents made up for the extra revision time themselves and no more than 10% of a class could be absent at any one time
    Tell that to the government and the teaching unions.

    A week isn't an especially long time either. If circumstances require it why not 5.6 weeks? If it's appropriate to take 5.6 weeks holiday throughout the year, why should those denied holidays during school holidays be denied that?
    The idea that teachers could get through the school syllabus each term with each of their pupils absent for 5.6 weeks a year in termtime is absurd. The whole reason there are set holiday times for schools is so that every class follows the same syllabus and the same timetable, without it the educational system would effectively collapse. The average family takes 2 weeks for their main holiday, that is compromise enough
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    "Meet the London bankers voting for Le Pen". (Spectator)

    Article basically says the young and smart expats in London are flocking to Le Pen and she's not dirty. Not dirty at all.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Re: term-holidays
    The reason for this is probably the same as the reason we can't have lots of nice things we'd like: people taking the piss.

    Another way of thinking about it: if you want the state to educate your child, you have to abide by the state's rules. Discuss...

    And yet they are not going after those taking the piss. They are instead criminalising the otherwise law abiding so it looks like they are doing something. Discuss.
    A different judgement would have been a significant indicator that it would be fine to take children out of school during term time. Now, I'm sure the vast majority of parents wouldn't do so because they recognise the damage it might do, but that leaves a significant number of parents who would perceive this as a green light. With the concomitant disruption to both the children taken out of school, and those left behind, that that would entail.

    Find me an educator who disagrees with the judgement.
    Find me an educator who has to work through the entire school holidays.
    Educators don't go and remove the customers of parents when they feel like it with all the disruption that does to their working day but as I said a 2 week annual termtime holiday allowance per pupil would be a reasonable compromise
    It's the educators and the government [and this judgement] that are objecting to flexibility to take 2 weeks off not me.

    It is a ridiculous situation whereby parents have an entitlement to 5.6 weeks off per year but not one of those days is fixed (some businesses are open 365 days a year), while students get 0 flexible days off per year.
    As I said I would agree to a week allowance per year provided parents made up for the extra revision time themselves and no more than 10% of a class could be absent at any one time
    Tell that to the government and the teaching unions.

    A week isn't an especially long time either. If circumstances require it why not 5.6 weeks? If it's appropriate to take 5.6 weeks holiday throughout the year, why should those denied holidays during school holidays be denied that?
    'cos the bloody government get better holidays than the bloody school kids!
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    We've just had a Lib Dem leaflet put through the door. Had it focussed entirely on the omnishambles at Surrey County Council and provision of services in the county, I might have considered voting for them. But as it they are telling me that Brexit is a complete fuck up and everyone in Woking will lose their jobs.

    I can send you a Focus from near me if you like, doesn't mention Brexit at all :p
    Nothing in the ones near me about Brexit either, from 2 so far. Was Surrey heavily remain, and so felt to be more susceptible to such a tactic?
    Woking was 55:45 Remain. The pitch is that a lot of the residents in Woking work in big business in London and we can't have them being inconvenienced. To be fair I can understand why they are targeting them, but now's not the time. They'd be better off pointing at the state of the road on my estate!
    Now is the time. It is always the time.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    chestnut said:

    TM the PM is certainly correct in saying that no deal is better than a bad deal.

    Bollocks
    Why accept a bad deal when 88% of the global economy is on offer outside the EU and there is plenty of scope for internal adjustment?
    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,798
    edited April 2017

    Scott_P said:

    chestnut said:

    TM the PM is certainly correct in saying that no deal is better than a bad deal.

    Bollocks
    You reckon a bad deal is better than no deal? Why?
    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal. We're going to have to agree something. Roughly speaking the more that's in that deal the better.

    Mrs May is spinning on the Gibraltar question. Spain has tried to dampen down talk about sovereignty over Gibraltar. The key point is that the EU deal with the UK won't apply to Gibraltar. Mrs May could kill the Brexit deal on that count, but she won't. Some more empty rhetoric and sabre rattling will hopefully (from her point of view) distract the Gibraltarians and friends from the fact that she is trading them away.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny is correct.

    image

    Mass migration is nothing like a norm.

    If I were to hazard a guess, I'd imagine that the public want to see some reversion to the long term norm, with some evidence that the flow of people they perceive as either undesirable or unneeded has been substantially stemmed.

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    The idea that teachers could get through the school syllabus each term with each of their pupils absent for 5.6 weeks a year in termtime is absurd. The whole reason there are set holiday times for schools is so that every class follows the same syllabus and the same timetable, without it the educational system would effectively collapse. The average family takes 2 weeks for their main holiday, that is compromise enough

    The courts just ruled 1 week is too much!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Danny565 said:



    I can't see the average Kipper voter from 2015 being happy with immigration carrying on as now, but being comforted by the fact the British government might technically have the "control" to change it but choose not to.

    IMO, the main reason that so many Kippers have gone back to the Tories since the referendum is precisely because they think May's going to get a big cut in numbers of immigrants as soon as we're officially Out.

    image
    Good god, I hope @tyson doesn't see that!
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not on offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    and Westminster isn't in session :p
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170

    HYUFD said:

    The idea that teachers could get through the school syllabus each term with each of their pupils absent for 5.6 weeks a year in termtime is absurd. The whole reason there are set holiday times for schools is so that every class follows the same syllabus and the same timetable, without it the educational system would effectively collapse. The average family takes 2 weeks for their main holiday, that is compromise enough

    The courts just ruled 1 week is too much!
    If there is a change it will have to come from Parliament but 2 weeks is the most it would allow
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    surbiton said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    We've just had a Lib Dem leaflet put through the door. Had it focussed entirely on the omnishambles at Surrey County Council and provision of services in the county, I might have considered voting for them. But as it they are telling me that Brexit is a complete fuck up and everyone in Woking will lose their jobs.

    I can send you a Focus from near me if you like, doesn't mention Brexit at all :p
    Nothing in the ones near me about Brexit either, from 2 so far. Was Surrey heavily remain, and so felt to be more susceptible to such a tactic?
    Woking was 55:45 Remain. The pitch is that a lot of the residents in Woking work in big business in London and we can't have them being inconvenienced. To be fair I can understand why they are targeting them, but now's not the time. They'd be better off pointing at the state of the road on my estate!
    Now is the time. It is always the time.
    Perhaps, maybe they care more about 2020 than 2017, but they are very much pitching for only the votes of those who voted Remain.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris has always been unashamedly pro-immigration. I respect him for that.

    Better than a two-faced Janus who speaks for restricting immigration to get votes and then seeks free movement in office.
    Perhaps, but on the other hand this is exactly why UKIP have a future in any likely Brexit outcome.

    Most people weren't voting to get "control" over immigration, only to then use that control to make no changes. They were voting for substantially less immigration.
    The rise and fall and rise again of UKIP ?
    UKIP didn't get where they are today by being soft on immigration!
    I can't see the average Kipper voter from 2015 being happy with immigration carrying on as now, but being comforted by the fact the British government might technically have the "control" to change it but choose not to.

    IMO, the main reason that so many Kippers have gone back to the Tories since the referendum is precisely because they think May's going to get a big cut in numbers of immigrants as soon as we're officially Out.
    Inclined to agree with you. I am quite comforted by the fact that the govt have control over it. If people aren't happy they will vote accordingly, It will be interesting to see what happens.
    Fewer European immigrants, more non-EU immigrants?
    More Skilled immigrants,less poor unskilled immigrantion - what ever part of the world immigration come's from.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not on offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Why do you think we can secure better terms than the EU can? And were we barred from joining the Euro?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    MTimT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May tells Donald Tusk that Gibraltars sovereignty is non-negotiable

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/06/theresa-may-meets-donald-tusk-brexit-talks-downing-street/

    If Spain and the EU really start to push that when negotiations start properly in the Summer there must be a risk of a breakdown in talks happening virtually straight the way.

    I think there's a real risk we could be out the EU in trading under WTO rules by September?

    Early on, I argued that now is not the time to negotiate a mutually beneficial deal. Rather we should leave unconditionally, falling back on WTO, and then, say in 2-5 years, negotiate the deal as outsiders, with whom the EU would be mad not to do a deal, rather as supplicant leavers trying to preserve as much as we can of what is not on offer. Briefly, I thought I had been wrong to think as I did.

    Admittedly, negotiations have not started yet, so it is all posturing at the moment. But if the EU does not come off some of its positions, then I'll be quickly back to arguing for just leave, no negotiations.
    Yeah, there's really two area's that could see the negotiation ending before it's begun.

    1. Gibraltar.

    2. The £50bn

    Out of the two clearly Gibraltar is the one that has the greatest potential for us just to leave.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss for which we pay £13bn a year access fee, in order to take in the continent's waifs and strays whilst we have little freedom over running many things in our country.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Why do you think we can secure better terms than the EU can?

    It's the Brexiteers' mantra

    When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017
    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    tlg86 said:

    surbiton said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    We've just had a Lib Dem leaflet put through the door. Had it focussed entirely on the omnishambles at Surrey County Council and provision of services in the county, I might have considered voting for them. But as it they are telling me that Brexit is a complete fuck up and everyone in Woking will lose their jobs.

    I can send you a Focus from near me if you like, doesn't mention Brexit at all :p
    Nothing in the ones near me about Brexit either, from 2 so far. Was Surrey heavily remain, and so felt to be more susceptible to such a tactic?
    Woking was 55:45 Remain. The pitch is that a lot of the residents in Woking work in big business in London and we can't have them being inconvenienced. To be fair I can understand why they are targeting them, but now's not the time. They'd be better off pointing at the state of the road on my estate!
    Now is the time. It is always the time.
    Perhaps, maybe they care more about 2020 than 2017, but they are very much pitching for only the votes of those who voted Remain.
    They're pitching for the votes of the bitter enders, the 21% who want Brexit overturned. That's sensible when you got 8% last time.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    Perhaps you can quote me the rates of the Deutschmark?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss...
    Have you been taking Trump too seriously again? We don't 'lose' through trade, even if it appears unbalanced.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    François Fillon today:

    image
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,798
    edited April 2017
    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss for which we pay £13bn a year access fee, in order to take in the continent's waifs and strays whilst we have little freedom over running many things in our country.

    So you are saying, get our trade down to absolute zero, Bhutan style, and that £100bn trade "loss" disappears? And that's the no deal that's better than a bad deal?

    And by the way, we now have FREEDOM because we can trash our very own economy?
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    RobD said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    and Westminster isn't in session :p
    I'd be there for all the freebies- not sure where Mr M is:

    https://twitter.com/DavidMundellDCT/status/849976873660567552
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    calum said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    and Westminster isn't in session :p
    I'd be there for all the freebies- not sure where Mr M is:

    twitter.com/DavidMundellDCT/status/849976873660567552
    Now I'm lost, what point are you trying to make?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020

    Scott_P said:
    So... post Brexit will be the same as before just no voting rights in the EU?

    Works for me!
    I never cease to be staggered by the ignorance displayed by some on here regarding the EU and our relationship with it. If you think freedom of movement was the only area where the EU affected us then you really are dumber than a bag of rocks.
    Since when did I have to make my goals coincide with yours?

    Who said anything about goals? It is your dumb idea that having freedom of movement is the same as remaining inside the EU.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    The point is that the euro is a much weaker currency than would be the DM. This is the sense in which Germany thas benefitted from the euro. Sterling has declined against the euro - it would have declined much more against the DM.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    RobD said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    and Westminster isn't in session :p
    I'd be there for all the freebies- not sure where Mr M is:

    twitter.com/DavidMundellDCT/status/849976873660567552
    Now I'm lost, what point are you trying to make?
    He should be in the US trying to drum up business !
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    FF43 said:

    So you are saying, get our trade down to absolute zero, Bhutan style, and that £100bn trade "loss" disappears? And that's the no deal that's better than a bad deal?

    And by the way, we now have FREEDOM because we can trash our very own economy?

    No, you're the one making that ridiculous leap.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    Apart from William Glenn, Remainers rarely address the politics of the EU project. We left because it's a political project and we don't like the politics. Arguing over this or that trade arrangement is of relatively marginal importance.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
    But those rates show that Germany's currency has appreciated versus Sterling which surely demolishes any argument that the 'cheap' Euro gives them a competitive advantage over the UK in exports.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    calum said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    and Westminster isn't in session :p
    I'd be there for all the freebies- not sure where Mr M is:

    twitter.com/DavidMundellDCT/status/849976873660567552
    Now I'm lost, what point are you trying to make?
    He should be in the US trying to drum up business !
    Things are that bad that you need to send Mundell out?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020

    HYUFD said:

    The idea that teachers could get through the school syllabus each term with each of their pupils absent for 5.6 weeks a year in termtime is absurd. The whole reason there are set holiday times for schools is so that every class follows the same syllabus and the same timetable, without it the educational system would effectively collapse. The average family takes 2 weeks for their main holiday, that is compromise enough

    The courts just ruled 1 week is too much!
    Strictly the court has just ruled that 1 day is too much. They have upheld the law as it stands and that says that ANY unauthorised absence is sufficient to result in a fine.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
    But those rates show that Germany's currency has appreciated versus Sterling which surely demolishes any argument that the 'cheap' Euro gives them a competitive advantage over the UK in exports.
    Currencies float up and down, William.

    Sterling was over €1.40 to the Euro not just in 1999, but in 2016.

    The Germans enjoy their cheap currency, while the others on that particular chain gang see their economies and social model trashed.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
    It might create a socialist utopia North of the Border, but it would make the Left's job harder South of the Border.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
    But those rates show that Germany's currency has appreciated versus Sterling which surely demolishes any argument that the 'cheap' Euro gives them a competitive advantage over the UK in exports.
    Plenty of articles along the same line:

    http://fortune.com/2014/10/22/why-germany-is-the-eurozones-biggest-free-rider/

    Let's see some counter-examples showing that Germany has been held back by the Euro. :p
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss...
    Have you been taking Trump too seriously again? We don't 'lose' through trade, even if it appears unbalanced.
    Okay, 'we ' don't. Just some of us.Obviously not you.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
    So why did Britain not do even better with the help of a devaluation of 23€cents ?
    The answer lies in our hopeless productivity. Read the article in today's Times: "No sign of solution to the productivity puzzle" On PPP basis , the minimum wage in France is $11.20, Germany $10.30, UK $8.40.

    So, how can they compete ?

    Minutes taken to match value of a British working hour:

    Germany 44.02, France 46.37, UK 60.

    That's how!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    These "but the Euro is weaker than the Deutschmark would have been" arguments are complete horseshit. I work for an exporter btw.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
    It might create a socialist utopia North of the Border, but it would make the Left's job harder South of the Border.
    That's not your problem.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
    So why did Britain not do even better with the help of a devaluation of 23€cents ?
    The answer lies in our hopeless productivity. Read the article in today's Times: "No sign of solution to the productivity puzzle" On PPP basis , the minimum wage in France is $11.20, Germany $10.30, UK $8.40.

    So, how can they compete ?

    Minutes taken to match value of a British working hour:

    Germany 44.02, France 46.37, UK 60.

    That's how!
    Yep, that certainly helps. not having your currency go up in value when you are in an export boom with your immediate neighbours also helps.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    RobD said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    and Westminster isn't in session :p
    I'd be there for all the freebies- not sure where Mr M is:

    twitter.com/DavidMundellDCT/status/849976873660567552
    Now I'm lost, what point are you trying to make?
    He should be in the US trying to drum up business !
    Things are that bad that you need to send Mundell out?
    Would appear so from earlier threads & MSM headlines today ! - Then again maybe things aren't that bad after all
  • Options
    Almost like the delayed 1997 Grand National never happened

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/850083647239663617
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
    So why did Britain not do even better with the help of a devaluation of 23€cents ?
    The answer lies in our hopeless productivity. Read the article in today's Times: "No sign of solution to the productivity puzzle" On PPP basis , the minimum wage in France is $11.20, Germany $10.30, UK $8.40.

    So, how can they compete ?

    Minutes taken to match value of a British working hour:

    Germany 44.02, France 46.37, UK 60.

    That's how!
    We can boost productivity pretty easily by pushing up unemployment to the level that prevails in the Eurozone.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
    It might create a socialist utopia North of the Border, but it would make the Left's job harder South of the Border.
    That's not your problem.
    But it is yours.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017
    PeterC said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    The point is that the euro is a much weaker currency than would be the DM. This is the sense in which Germany thas benefitted from the euro. Sterling has declined against the euro - it would have declined much more against the DM.
    So why haven't we done better with exports ? Why is it the City of London bails us out ? Why do we have such a large manufacturing deficit ?

    Trade deals as a supplicant will not improve that. Swinging the lead will not do any good.
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/so-long-farewell-young-professionals-response-brexit-jon-davies

    Just had a laugh reading this. Left me totally speechless. In summary: Brexit has led to some uncertainty about his highly paid banking job so he is off to Hong Kong.

    "Taking a step back from the corporate coal face to have a look at what is going on away from the corporate world would be a valuable exercise for anyone. On Monday I was in Madrid for a job interview (and long lunch) with a hedge fund looking for someone to do a spot of freelance fundraising for them in Asia. Wednesday was wine tasting at the Saatchi gallery with my import/export hat on and on Thursday I ended up bagging a last minute invite to the black tie Investors Choice Awards at The Dorchester".

  • Options
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
    So why did Britain not do even better with the help of a devaluation of 23€cents ?
    The answer lies in our hopeless productivity. Read the article in today's Times: "No sign of solution to the productivity puzzle" On PPP basis , the minimum wage in France is $11.20, Germany $10.30, UK $8.40.

    So, how can they compete ?

    Minutes taken to match value of a British working hour:

    Germany 44.02, France 46.37, UK 60.

    That's how!
    Yep, that certainly helps. not having your currency go up in value when you are in an export boom with your immediate neighbours also helps.
    It isn't done to 'laziness' though. The reason for our relatively poor productivity is, I believe, widely understood to be due to poor infrastructure and training. That won't change quckly, inside or outside the EU.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
    It might create a socialist utopia North of the Border, but it would make the Left's job harder South of the Border.
    That's not your problem.
    But it is yours.
    Whenever, Labour won in the UK it also won in Britain apart from 1964 and Feb 1974, I believe.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Nest batch

    Staffs 2013 result
    Con 34 Lab 24 LD 0 UKIP 2 Ind 2
    No boundary changes
    My forecast
    Con 38 Lab 22 LD 1 Ind 1

    Lincs 2013 result
    Con 36 Lab 12 LD 3 UKIP 16 Ind 10
    Boundary changes loses 7 seats new notional 2013 figures
    Con 34 Lab 11 LD 3 UKIP 13 Ind 9
    My forecast
    Con 45 Lab 9 LD 4 UKIP 3 Ind 9

    West Sussex 2013 result
    Con 46 Lab 6 LD 8 UKIP 10 Ind 1
    Boundary changes loses 1 seat ( UKIP ) new notional result
    Con 46 Lab 6 LD 8 UKIP 9 Ind 1
    My forecast
    Con 50 Lab 4 LD 12 UKIP 2 Ind 2

    Surrey 2013 result
    Con 58 Lab 1 LD 9 UKIP 3 Green 1 Ind/Others 9
    No boundary changes
    My forecast
    Con 54 Lab 1 LD 13 UKIP 0 Green 1 Ind/Others 12

    Lancs 2013 result
    Con 35 Lab 39 LD 6 Green 1 Ind 3
    Boundary changes new notional figures
    Con 37 Lab 38 LD 5 Green 1 Ind 3
    My forecast
    Con 40 Lab 31 LD 8 Green 2 Ind 3












  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss...
    Have you been taking Trump too seriously again? We don't 'lose' through trade, even if it appears unbalanced.
    Okay, 'we ' don't. Just some of us.Obviously not you.
    I think rcs1000 has used the example of personal finance to debunk this.

    If you spend £5000 a year on groceries at Tesco, do you have a £5000 trade deficit with Tesco, or have you gained £5000 worth of groceries?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
    It might create a socialist utopia North of the Border, but it would make the Left's job harder South of the Border.
    That's not your problem.
    But it is yours.
    Whenever, Labour won in the UK it also won in Britain apart from 1964 and Feb 1974, I believe.
    Times change. Labour's position in England and Wales is now very bleak, and would be even bleaker without 50 or so Scottish MP's prepared to support a Left Wing government.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
    So why did Britain not do even better with the help of a devaluation of 23€cents ?
    The answer lies in our hopeless productivity. Read the article in today's Times: "No sign of solution to the productivity puzzle" On PPP basis , the minimum wage in France is $11.20, Germany $10.30, UK $8.40.

    So, how can they compete ?

    Minutes taken to match value of a British working hour:

    Germany 44.02, France 46.37, UK 60.

    That's how!
    We can boost productivity pretty easily by pushing up unemployment to the level that prevails in the Eurozone.
    You mean businesses are deliberately employing more people than they need to help people ?

    By the way, unemployment rate in UK = 4.7%. In Germany, 3.9%.

    Oops, German bashing didn't work out either.

    Why don't you admit a simple truth. They are better than us in manufacturing rather than come up with myriad excuses.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    The idea that teachers could get through the school syllabus each term with each of their pupils absent for 5.6 weeks a year in termtime is absurd. The whole reason there are set holiday times for schools is so that every class follows the same syllabus and the same timetable, without it the educational system would effectively collapse. The average family takes 2 weeks for their main holiday, that is compromise enough

    The courts just ruled 1 week is too much!
    Strictly the court has just ruled that 1 day is too much. They have upheld the law as it stands and that says that ANY unauthorised absence is sufficient to result in a fine.
    Indeed and the law is an ass.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983

    Nest batch

    Staffs 2013 result
    Con 34 Lab 24 LD 0 UKIP 2 Ind 2
    No boundary changes
    My forecast
    Con 38 Lab 22 LD 1 Ind 1

    Lincs 2013 result
    Con 36 Lab 12 LD 3 UKIP 16 Ind 10
    Boundary changes loses 7 seats new notional 2013 figures
    Con 34 Lab 11 LD 3 UKIP 13 Ind 9
    My forecast
    Con 45 Lab 9 LD 4 UKIP 3 Ind 9

    West Sussex 2013 result
    Con 46 Lab 6 LD 8 UKIP 10 Ind 1
    Boundary changes loses 1 seat ( UKIP ) new notional result
    Con 46 Lab 6 LD 8 UKIP 9 Ind 1
    My forecast
    Con 50 Lab 4 LD 12 UKIP 2 Ind 2

    Surrey 2013 result
    Con 58 Lab 1 LD 9 UKIP 3 Green 1 Ind/Others 9
    No boundary changes
    My forecast
    Con 54 Lab 1 LD 13 UKIP 0 Green 1 Ind/Others 12

    Lancs 2013 result
    Con 35 Lab 39 LD 6 Green 1 Ind 3
    Boundary changes new notional figures
    Con 37 Lab 38 LD 5 Green 1 Ind 3
    My forecast
    Con 40 Lab 31 LD 8 Green 2 Ind 3












    I think Labour will do worse than that in Staffordshire, and the Lib Dems better in Surrey.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:



    I can't see the average Kipper voter from 2015 being happy with immigration carrying on as now, but being comforted by the fact the British government might technically have the "control" to change it but choose not to.

    IMO, the main reason that so many Kippers have gone back to the Tories since the referendum is precisely because they think May's going to get a big cut in numbers of immigrants as soon as we're officially Out.

    image
    Good god, I hope @tyson doesn't see that!
    ...he says, whilst tagging @tyson
    image
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
    It might create a socialist utopia North of the Border, but it would make the Left's job harder South of the Border.
    That's not your problem.
    But it is yours.
    Whenever, Labour won in the UK it also won in Britain apart from 1964 and Feb 1974, I believe.
    Times change. Labour's position in England and Wales is now very bleak, and would be even bleaker without 50 or so Scottish MP's prepared to support a Left Wing government.
    Moment the idiot is removed, things will change immediately.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss...
    Have you been taking Trump too seriously again? We don't 'lose' through trade, even if it appears unbalanced.
    Okay, 'we ' don't. Just some of us.Obviously not you.
    I think rcs1000 has used the example of personal finance to debunk this.

    If you spend £5000 a year on groceries at Tesco, do you have a £5000 trade deficit with Tesco, or have you gained £5000 worth of groceries?
    You are wasting your time with blinkered arse....s !
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
    So why did Britain not do even better with the help of a devaluation of 23€cents ?
    The answer lies in our hopeless productivity. Read the article in today's Times: "No sign of solution to the productivity puzzle" On PPP basis , the minimum wage in France is $11.20, Germany $10.30, UK $8.40.

    So, how can they compete ?

    Minutes taken to match value of a British working hour:

    Germany 44.02, France 46.37, UK 60.

    That's how!
    We can boost productivity pretty easily by pushing up unemployment to the level that prevails in the Eurozone.
    You mean businesses are deliberately employing more people than they need to help people ?

    By the way, unemployment rate in UK = 4.7%. In Germany, 3.9%.

    Oops, German bashing didn't work out either.

    Why don't you admit a simple truth. They are better than us in manufacturing rather than come up with myriad excuses.
    No, they employ people because it's cheap to do so, and cheap to make people redundant. That's why we're a magnet that draws workers from countries that have high unemployment rates.
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    surbiton said:

    PeterC said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    The point is that the euro is a much weaker currency than would be the DM. This is the sense in which Germany thas benefitted from the euro. Sterling has declined against the euro - it would have declined much more against the DM.
    So why haven't we done better with exports ? Why is it the City of London bails us out ? Why do we have such a large manufacturing deficit ?

    Trade deals as a supplicant will not improve that. Swinging the lead will not do any good.
    You are right about the weakness of our export effort - foe whch there are many reasons. Sterling was quite strong against the euro 1998 - 2006.

    The point I was making was just about Germany - the euro has made their exports more competitive tan would otherwise have been the case. They have also contained inflation and invested for improved productivity.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017

    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss...
    Have you been taking Trump too seriously again? We don't 'lose' through trade, even if it appears unbalanced.
    Okay, 'we ' don't. Just some of us.Obviously not you.
    I think rcs1000 has used the example of personal finance to debunk this.

    If you spend £5000 a year on groceries at Tesco, do you have a £5000 trade deficit with Tesco, or have you gained £5000 worth of groceries?
    If you've lost your job, you don't have £5000.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:



    I can't see the average Kipper voter from 2015 being happy with immigration carrying on as now, but being comforted by the fact the British government might technically have the "control" to change it but choose not to.

    IMO, the main reason that so many Kippers have gone back to the Tories since the referendum is precisely because they think May's going to get a big cut in numbers of immigrants as soon as we're officially Out.

    image
    Good god, I hope @tyson doesn't see that!
    ...he says, whilst tagging @tyson
    image
    *innocent face*
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
    It might create a socialist utopia North of the Border, but it would make the Left's job harder South of the Border.
    That's not your problem.
    But it is yours.
    Whenever, Labour won in the UK it also won in Britain apart from 1964 and Feb 1974, I believe.
    Times change. Labour's position in England and Wales is now very bleak, and would be even bleaker without 50 or so Scottish MP's prepared to support a Left Wing government.
    Moment the idiot is removed, things will change immediately.
    Labour's problems run deeper than Corbyn.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:


    Tell that to the government and the teaching unions.

    A week isn't an especially long time either. If circumstances require it why not 5.6 weeks? If it's appropriate to take 5.6 weeks holiday throughout the year, why should those denied holidays during school holidays be denied that?

    The idea that teachers could get through the school syllabus each term with each of their pupils absent for 5.6 weeks a year in termtime is absurd. The whole reason there are set holiday times for schools is so that every class follows the same syllabus and the same timetable, without it the educational system would effectively collapse. The average family takes 2 weeks for their main holiday, that is compromise enough
    Some kids manage to get through the school year homeschooled and absent for 52 weeks a year. The teacher should.be able to plow on with the syllabus so long as the absent family guarantees to.catch up it doesn't matter if it was for 1, 2, 13 or 52 weeks.

    Forget a day or a week, if a child moves here from the southern hemisphere they either jump ahead six months or are held back six months. I skipped ahead 18 months of schooling when I was young and it did me no harm. Later on I skipped another year for maths and was doing at 13 the maths of a 16 year old. Some children are different to others. Some families are different to others.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
    It might create a socialist utopia North of the Border, but it would make the Left's job harder South of the Border.
    That's not your problem.
    But it is yours.
    Whenever, Labour won in the UK it also won in Britain apart from 1964 and Feb 1974, I believe.
    Times change. Labour's position in England and Wales is now very bleak, and would be even bleaker without 50 or so Scottish MP's prepared to support a Left Wing government.
    An independent Scotland would inevitably see a revived centre right as would be necessary to make it viable and also relieve Labour of the threat of being tagged as 'the SNP's puppet' of all the arguments for Scottish independence the idea it would help the Scottish left and the English right is by far the weakest
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    nielh said:

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/so-long-farewell-young-professionals-response-brexit-jon-davies

    Just had a laugh reading this. Left me totally speechless. In summary: Brexit has led to some uncertainty about his highly paid banking job so he is off to Hong Kong.

    "Taking a step back from the corporate coal face to have a look at what is going on away from the corporate world would be a valuable exercise for anyone. On Monday I was in Madrid for a job interview (and long lunch) with a hedge fund looking for someone to do a spot of freelance fundraising for them in Asia. Wednesday was wine tasting at the Saatchi gallery with my import/export hat on and on Thursday I ended up bagging a last minute invite to the black tie Investors Choice Awards at The Dorchester".

    He is not unusual...

    "Organised by the Evolve Media Group, they say 8,000 people registered to attended at London and Solihull in Birmingham - a massive 70% leap on pre-Brexit events."

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/brexit-fall-out-sees-rush-12032712


    "In the 49 days following the Brexit vote more than 10,000 British nationals registered their interest – compared with 4,599 during the same period the year before."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/22/brexit-sparks-rush-for-new-zealand-as-emigration-inquiries-hit-record-high

    And another in the Huff Post... "But there are many unhappy at the referendum result, with a quarter of adults saying they had considered quitting Britain and emigrating. That figure rose significantly from 26% to 43% among young people."


  • Options

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:



    I can't see the average Kipper voter from 2015 being happy with immigration carrying on as now, but being comforted by the fact the British government might technically have the "control" to change it but choose not to.

    IMO, the main reason that so many Kippers have gone back to the Tories since the referendum is precisely because they think May's going to get a big cut in numbers of immigrants as soon as we're officially Out.

    image
    Good god, I hope @tyson doesn't see that!
    ...he says, whilst tagging @tyson
    image
    I lost count of the number of people tagging me here and on twitter today about Mark Reckless joining the Tories.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Scott_P said:
    Boris has always been unashamedly pro-immigration. I respect him for that.
    Better than a two-faced Janus who speaks for restricting immigration to get votes and then seeks free movement in office.
    I thought he was that as well.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170

    HYUFD said:


    Tell that to the government and the teaching unions.

    A week isn't an especially long time either. If circumstances require it why not 5.6 weeks? If it's appropriate to take 5.6 weeks holiday throughout the year, why should those denied holidays during school holidays be denied that?

    The idea that teachers could get through the school syllabus each term with each of their pupils absent for 5.6 weeks a year in termtime is absurd. The whole reason there are set holiday times for schools is so that every class follows the same syllabus and the same timetable, without it the educational system would effectively collapse. The average family takes 2 weeks for their main holiday, that is compromise enough
    Some kids manage to get through the school year homeschooled and absent for 52 weeks a year. The teacher should.be able to plow on with the syllabus so long as the absent family guarantees to.catch up it doesn't matter if it was for 1, 2, 13 or 52 weeks.

    Forget a day or a week, if a child moves here from the southern hemisphere they either jump ahead six months or are held back six months. I skipped ahead 18 months of schooling when I was young and it did me no harm. Later on I skipped another year for maths and was doing at 13 the maths of a 16 year old. Some children are different to others. Some families are different to others.
    You can only homeschool if you are sufficiently educated to tutor your pupils (and councils are legally able to check the quality of your tutoring) and while it may be relatively easy for those with parents with degrees and even postgraduate degrees to help their children to catch up that is by no means the case with those with parents who may have few if any educational qualifications and it is those children the law was designed to help
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss...
    Have you been taking Trump too seriously again? We don't 'lose' through trade, even if it appears unbalanced.
    Okay, 'we ' don't. Just some of us.Obviously not you.
    I think rcs1000 has used the example of personal finance to debunk this.

    If you spend £5000 a year on groceries at Tesco, do you have a £5000 trade deficit with Tesco, or have you gained £5000 worth of groceries?
    If you've lost your job, you don't have £5000.
    5th lowest unemployment in EU

    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Unemployment_rates,_seasonally_adjusted,_February_2017_(%)_F2.png
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170

    nielh said:

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/so-long-farewell-young-professionals-response-brexit-jon-davies

    Just had a laugh reading this. Left me totally speechless. In summary: Brexit has led to some uncertainty about his highly paid banking job so he is off to Hong Kong.

    "Taking a step back from the corporate coal face to have a look at what is going on away from the corporate world would be a valuable exercise for anyone. On Monday I was in Madrid for a job interview (and long lunch) with a hedge fund looking for someone to do a spot of freelance fundraising for them in Asia. Wednesday was wine tasting at the Saatchi gallery with my import/export hat on and on Thursday I ended up bagging a last minute invite to the black tie Investors Choice Awards at The Dorchester".

    He is not unusual...

    "Organised by the Evolve Media Group, they say 8,000 people registered to attended at London and Solihull in Birmingham - a massive 70% leap on pre-Brexit events."

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/brexit-fall-out-sees-rush-12032712


    "In the 49 days following the Brexit vote more than 10,000 British nationals registered their interest – compared with 4,599 during the same period the year before."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/22/brexit-sparks-rush-for-new-zealand-as-emigration-inquiries-hit-record-high

    And another in the Huff Post... "But there are many unhappy at the referendum result, with a quarter of adults saying they had considered quitting Britain and emigrating. That figure rose significantly from 26% to 43% among young people."


    New Zealand is about the same size as the UK with 1/15 of the population, a few Brits moving there may help both nations
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    Freggles said:

    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss...
    Have you been taking Trump too seriously again? We don't 'lose' through trade, even if it appears unbalanced.
    Okay, 'we ' don't. Just some of us.Obviously not you.
    I think rcs1000 has used the example of personal finance to debunk this.

    If you spend £5000 a year on groceries at Tesco, do you have a £5000 trade deficit with Tesco, or have you gained £5000 worth of groceries?
    If you've lost your job, you don't have £5000.
    5th lowest unemployment in EU

    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Unemployment_rates,_seasonally_adjusted,_February_2017_(%)_F2.png
    Ours? Yes, it's very good.

    We have more job vacancies than Germany, fewer part time jobs and a much smaller number of registered and long term unemployed.

    Perhaps there is an explanation in there about 'productivity'.

    A while back we were regularly regaled with tales of Obama's jobs miracle - when in reality many people were simply dropping out of the labour market altogether which massaged the figures. The term was 'discouraged' I believe.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
    It might create a socialist utopia North of the Border, but it would make the Left's job harder South of the Border.
    That's not your problem.
    But it is yours.
    Whenever, Labour won in the UK it also won in Britain apart from 1964 and Feb 1974, I believe.
    Times change. Labour's position in England and Wales is now very bleak, and would be even bleaker without 50 or so Scottish MP's prepared to support a Left Wing government.
    An independent Scotland would inevitably see a revived centre right as would be necessary to make it viable and also relieve Labour of the threat of being tagged as 'the SNP's puppet' of all the arguments for Scottish independence the idea it would help the Scottish left and the English right is by far the weakest
    I don't favour Scottish independence. But, a lot of its support seems to be based on the view that while England is irretrievably lost to the Right, Scotland can still be a beacon of socialism.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    edited April 2017
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Scottish party leader swaning around the US during term time !

    twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184

    A bit of a difference between party leader and first minister, surely? :smiley:
    Yes, one did it whilst parliament was sitting and the other didn't
    Well, it has been a relatively light legislative session... :p
    Wonder where Mundel is this week?

    https://twitter.com/SeafoodFromScot/status/850040477743276032
    Independence cannot come too soon.
    It might create a socialist utopia North of the Border, but it would make the Left's job harder South of the Border.
    That's not your problem.
    But it is yours.
    Whenever, Labour won in the UK it also won in Britain apart from 1964 and Feb 1974, I believe.
    Times change. Labour's position in England and Wales is now very bleak, and would be even bleaker without 50 or so Scottish MP's prepared to support a Left Wing government.
    An independent Scotland would inevitably see a revived centre right as would be necessary to make it viable and also relieve Labour of the threat of being tagged as 'the SNP's puppet' of all the arguments for Scottish independence the idea it would help the Scottish left and the English right is by far the weakest
    I don't favour Scottish independence. But, a lot of its support seems to be based on the view that while England is irretrievably lost to the Right, Scotland can still be a beacon of socialism.
    Yes and both arguments are wrong, the Scottish Tories have now overtaken Scottish Labour and Labour did better in England in 2015 than in Scotland for the first time ever
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020

    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss...
    Have you been taking Trump too seriously again? We don't 'lose' through trade, even if it appears unbalanced.
    Okay, 'we ' don't. Just some of us.Obviously not you.
    I think rcs1000 has used the example of personal finance to debunk this.

    If you spend £5000 a year on groceries at Tesco, do you have a £5000 trade deficit with Tesco, or have you gained £5000 worth of groceries?
    With due apologies to RCS, the example is balls.

    If you work for Tesco and buy your £5000 worth of groceries at Sainsbury and pay Sainsbury a subscription to allow you to do so AND Sainsbury use that money to help other customers buy from them instead of from Tesco then you are doing yourself no favours at all and may well find yourself out of a job in short order.

    That is what the trade deficit with the EU via Single Market membership actually means.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/850094137382711300

    To be fair, he was up for it until EICIPM got in the way :p
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020

    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss...
    Have you been taking Trump too seriously again? We don't 'lose' through trade, even if it appears unbalanced.
    Okay, 'we ' don't. Just some of us.Obviously not you.
    I think rcs1000 has used the example of personal finance to debunk this.

    If you spend £5000 a year on groceries at Tesco, do you have a £5000 trade deficit with Tesco, or have you gained £5000 worth of groceries?
    With due apologies to RCS, the example is balls.

    If you work for Tesco and buy your £5000 worth of groceries at Sainsbury and pay Sainsbury a subscription to allow you to do so AND Sainsbury use that money to help other customers buy from them instead of from Tesco then you are doing yourself no favours at all and may well find yourself out of a job in short order.

    That is what the trade deficit with the EU via Single Market membership actually means.
    And I can say Robert is talking balls because I happen to know he is out of the country at the moment so probably won't notice :)
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Tell that to the government and the teaching unions.

    A week isn't an especially long time either. If circumstances require it why not 5.6 weeks? If it's appropriate to take 5.6 weeks holiday throughout the year, why should those denied holidays during school holidays be denied that?

    The idea that teachers could get through the school syllabus each term with each of their pupils absent for 5.6 weeks a year in termtime is absurd. The whole reason there are set holiday times for schools is so that every class follows the same syllabus and the same timetable, without it the educational system would effectively collapse. The average family takes 2 weeks for their main holiday, that is compromise enough
    Some kids manage to get through the school year homeschooled and absent for 52 weeks a year. The teacher should.be able to plow on with the syllabus so long as the absent family guarantees to.catch up it doesn't matter if it was for 1, 2, 13 or 52 weeks.

    Forget a day or a week, if a child moves here from the southern hemisphere they either jump ahead six months or are held back six months. I skipped ahead 18 months of schooling when I was young and it did me no harm. Later on I skipped another year for maths and was doing at 13 the maths of a 16 year old. Some children are different to others. Some families are different to others.
    You can only homeschool if you are sufficiently educated to tutor your pupils (and councils are legally able to check the quality of your tutoring) and while it may be relatively easy for those with parents with degrees and even postgraduate degrees to help their children to catch up that is by no means the case with those with parents who may have few if any educational qualifications and it is those children the law was designed to help
    And this is the problem! The law treats everyone as a moron rather than having discretion. It acts as if everyone is unable to help their kids catch up and everyone is able to take holidays outside of term time. Both assumptions are fallacious.

    If the law was what it used to be... give discretion to head teachers to make reasonable decisions then that would be sane.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017
    Credit where credit is due...

    Corbyn's VAT on private school fees to fund free dinners for state primary school kids has come across pretty well overall. The right wing outrage doesn't pass the sniff test. It's a sensible policy and it's odd the mail/telegraph lot seem intent on using up all their ammo before the battle has begun.

    "It doesn't add up" umm, yes it obviously does. There will probably be corbyn policies which don't add up, but this ain't one of them.

    Crucially, it appeals very much to Theresa May's new urban brexit centre ground constituency, which corbyn needs to break up - TM should recognise that and nick the policy, perhaps when the school funding crunch starts to bite.

    Well, modify it a bit, but the main thing is don't let the corbyn/rightwing media reaction to him push you into a corner - the privileged must make a fair contribution to society.

    You don't disagree, do you Theresa?
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    Because "no deal" IS the bad deal.

    The current deal is the bad deal.

    Our deal at the moment is a £100bn trade loss...
    Have you been taking Trump too seriously again? We don't 'lose' through trade, even if it appears unbalanced.
    Okay, 'we ' don't. Just some of us.Obviously not you.
    I think rcs1000 has used the example of personal finance to debunk this.

    If you spend £5000 a year on groceries at Tesco, do you have a £5000 trade deficit with Tesco, or have you gained £5000 worth of groceries?
    With due apologies to RCS, the example is balls.

    If you work for Tesco and buy your £5000 worth of groceries at Sainsbury and pay Sainsbury a subscription to allow you to do so AND Sainsbury use that money to help other customers buy from them instead of from Tesco then you are doing yourself no favours at all and may well find yourself out of a job in short order.

    That is what the trade deficit with the EU via Single Market membership actually means.
    And I can say Robert is talking balls because I happen to know he is out of the country at the moment so probably won't notice :)
    You might be out of luck there.
    It's only after full Brexit that the internet will stop at the Channel :)
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Next batch

    Leics 2013 result
    Con 30 Lab 10 LD 13 UKIP 2
    Minor boundary changes
    My forecast
    Con 32 Lab 8 LD 15

    Cumbria 2013 result
    Con 26 Lab 35 LD 16 Ind 7
    No boundary changes
    My forecast
    Con 28 Lab 29 LD 19 Ind 8

    Notts 2013 result
    Con 21 Lab 34 LD 8 Ind 4
    Boundary changes new notional result
    Con 22 Lab 33 LD 7 Ind 4
    My forecast
    Con 25 Lab 28 LD 5 Ind 8

    Warwks 2013 result
    Con 26 Lab 22 LD 9 Green 2 Ind 3
    Boundary changes 4 fewer seats new notional result
    Con 24 Lab 21 LD 7 Green 2 Ind 3
    My forecast
    Con 24 Lab 18 LD 10 Green 2 Ind 3

    Essex 2013 result
    Con 42 Lab 9 LD 9 UKIP 9 Green 2 Ind 4
    No boundary changes
    My forecast
    Con 42 Lab 9 LD 14 UKIP 3 Green 2 Ind 5
  • Options
    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    88% was always on offer. The EU did not prevent Germany from becoming the world's no.1 exporter. Stop making excuses.

    88% is not in offer in the terms we can secure, and the Germans have wangled themselves a lovely angle on currency.
    Oh yes, repeat that again. You do not know how ignorant you are.

    Jan 4, 1999 £1 = €1.4067

    Yesterday £1 = 1.1703

    Relative to the pound, it is the Euro which has appreciated.

    I think you will find it is sterling which is the sick currency and the UK has had the advantage of the weaker currency for exports. German exports are despite having the stronger currency.

    You are saying Germany has done well despite the Euro? Well, it's a view.
    Received wisdom is often wrong. People seem to have quickly forgotten that at the time Germany joined the Euro it was called the sick man of Europe and there was a lot of angst about it having gone in at a rate that was too high. They had to go through a phase of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness.
    But we are quoting exchange rates now. Germany undoubtedly benefits from the current arrangement.
    So why did Britain not do even better with the help of a devaluation of 23€cents ?
    The answer lies in our hopeless productivity. Read the article in today's Times: "No sign of solution to the productivity puzzle" On PPP basis , the minimum wage in France is $11.20, Germany $10.30, UK $8.40.

    So, how can they compete ?

    Minutes taken to match value of a British working hour:

    Germany 44.02, France 46.37, UK 60.

    That's how!
    When i were a lad, if you wanted your car washed, you went through a car washing machine at a garage, with big spinning mechanical brushes. Now, the norm in many areas is a hand car wash from European immigrants for a fiver. So there is at least one instance where unskilled immigration has sent us backwards technologically and reduced our productivity.
  • Options
    Pong said:

    Credit where credit is due...

    Corbyn's VAT on private school fees to fund free dinners for state primary school kids has come across pretty well overall. The right wing outrage doesn't pass the sniff test. It's a sensible policy and it's odd the mail/telegraph lot seem intent on using up all their ammo before the battle has begun.

    "It doesn't add up" umm, yes it obviously does. There will probably be corbyn policies which don't add up, but this ain't one of them.

    Crucially, it appeals very much to Theresa May's new urban brexit centre ground constituency, which corbyn needs to break up - TM should recognise that and nick the policy, perhaps when the school funding crunch starts to bite.

    Well, modify it a bit, but the main thing is don't let the corbyn/rightwing media reaction to him push you into a corner - the privileged must make a fair contribution to society.

    You don't disagree, do you Theresa?

    She just disregards him as he has no hope just like this policy
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,608
    edited April 2017
    Pong said:

    Credit where credit is due...

    the privileged must make a fair contribution to society.

    We already do.

    U.K.'s Top 1% of Earners Now Paying a Quarter of All Income Tax

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-27/u-k-s-top-1-of-earners-now-paying-a-quarter-of-all-income-tax
This discussion has been closed.