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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » French polling watchdog intervenes after Russian report that Fillon’s now ahead in polls
French polling watchdog issues warning after Russian news report claims Fillon regains lead. He's 3rd https://t.co/d4TLEo9qRk
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I've laid the snot out of Fillon.
Does Mike Smithson have security clearance?
We should be told.
Let's practice war on Spain first before taking on Russia.
We could call on our Portugese allies, with whom we have never been at war.
Macron +++
Melenchon +
Le Pen -
Fillon ---
Is my assessment of the situation.
The first casualty of war is the truth?
OR
The war plan has to be abandonned after the first shot is fired?
Mike Smithson, double agent 001?
I await my ban.
Trump is going to solve North Korea by himself:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39475178
The last post has more than one meaning.
Actually it gets even worse, I think Mike also worked at Cambridge University too.
I'm not particularly in favour of Trident by the way.
Putin presumably likes their love of Russia but not too keen on the USSR angle?
That would be a... bold move.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15167347.SNP_politicians_appear_50_times_on_Kremlin_channels/
Corbyn is a Russian placement - that went wrong.
The power of PB.com
Once again, this site turns into a subset of Twitter.
In addition, while we debate pointlessly something that will never happen, the main news features something much worse which could well happen and that's a showdown between America and North Korea and that is something about which to be worried.
Yes, it could be Howard-style sabre rattling from Trump in advance of Xi Jinping's visit to Washington (and that won't impress the Chinese one iota) but clearly Sino-American relations are affected to an extent by the status of North Korea.
The status quo probably suits China fairly well and America to a degree and any change to that will ideally continue to be mutually beneficial. Clearly, Beijing would prefer a friendly regime in Pyongyang and that's understandable so we can probably forget about a re-unified Korea for now.
Unilateral American action seems unwise but can't be ruled out - a multi-lateral approach perhaps with a view to overthrowing the Juche regime and replacing it with something that would still call itself Communist but be effectively a Beijing puppet could begin the de-escalation of tension along the Korean border. The Chinese aren't going to accept a pro-American and potentially hostile force along its border with Korea - they didn't before, why would they now ?
It would be welcome if Washington and Beijing could then agree a joint rescue and recovery mission (perhaps under the UN) for the North Korean people whose suffering under the Juche movement has been as extreme as anything inflicted on human beings by other human beings since the end of WW2.
Unfortunately, it seems the balance between China and America requires the North Korean people to continue to suffer.
The problem is that Kim Jong-un has the capability to launch an artillery barrage on Seoul, and probably would. Overt military action would be successful, ultimately, but there'd be a very heavy price to pay.
If some leading generals could be got on-side, that might work (more internal coup than external invasion), but that's also fraught with risk.
Or, the situation can simply be tolerated. It's somewhat volatile, though. And North Korea has widespread brutality, as well as a number of concentration camps.
“You can always count on the Americans Trump to do the right wrong thing after they have he hasn't tried every anything else.”
https://order-order.com/2017/04/03/mystery-of-tim-farrons-twitter-profile-picture/
Ride-hailing app blames new law and court ruling that it is an illegal taxi service"
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/uber-to-shut-down-its-business-in-denmark-1.3027563
I wonder what the Somalilianders think of this situation, being what appears to be a relatively stable nation which no one will recognise, which is a similar situation to being a discrete population by choice under another state. A few others like that, although most places are recognised as real countries by at least one other state.
Also you can amalgamate national governments and still have nations. I can't remember where it was but there was some weird messed-up country somewhere that used to describe itself as "two nations under one crown".
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/hard-brexit-article-50-archives-britain-blow-up-channel-tunnel-nuclear-bomb-a7662711.html
"The first reference found in the secret files to destruction using a nuclear bomb comes in November 1959 ..."
I may have to change my description of Brexit to 1959 Mk.II rather than 1957 Mk.II
.How do the French vote? Is it on paper or by machine?'
Paper ballots
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-39479476
The Brexiteers will no doubt be telling us that they will invade Scotland in order to protect Scotland from the belligerent Scots.
That means though that there is some potential for things to unwind for Macron if a challenger from the left does emerge. It's quite plausible now to see Melenchon's surge continuing as people give up on Hamon. So support on the left consolidates around Melenchon, so that Hamon declines into single figures allowing Melenchon to consistently poll in the high teens. At that point, there is the prospect of Melenchon adding a couple of % more from Macron to get him into the bottom 20s, at Macron's expense. At that point we have effectively a three way contest for who is to join Le Pen in the second round - Macron, Fillon or Melenchon.
Meanwhile the Russian poll is bunkum and could quite easily help Macron by identifying Fillon as the Kremlin's candidate.
Interesting...
Never underestimate the ability of the French left to lose elections.
Not exactly a place where you would expect to see Britain First holding a meeting.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/apr/03/markets-manufacturing-recovery-uk-factories-eurozone-unemployment-business-live?page=with:block-58e20132e4b01ea2330beb4e#block-58e20132e4b01ea2330beb4e
Unemployment is falling too.
With our biggest export market doing so well, it's no surprise we are too, I guess.
A Somalian asylum seeker has been charged with raping two disabled men in a care home and murdering one of their wives in Germany.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4374836/Somalian-asylum-seeker-rapes-two-elderly-disabled-men.html
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/dad-five-branded-racist-fined-10137782
"A dad-of-five has been branded a racist and banned from attending football matches for three years after calling a Scottish steward a "teuchter"."
If this country is experiencing a wave of organised rape by Asian men on white British underage girls is it helpful really to not report properly? Should the TV and radio talking heads have said nothing at all about the actually important angle of the case? Or is this just too socially difficult / just don't go there territory? There is a simple way for us to fight Islamic nutters and their mindset - just enforce the law and report it openly.
And given that Melenchon's surge came on the back of the last tv debate and we are on the eve of another tv debate, Melenchon is certainly one to keep very much onside. If he can go level with or even overtake Fillon in just one (non Russian) poll, then the resultant media publicity will see his odds crash.