So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
So basically Nicola's letter confirms she intends to waste more Holyrood time blethering on about Indy instead of matters the Scottish people deem more important ?
Brave.
Given a set of issues that the SNP seem unable to fix (teacher recruitment, education, health care) talking about something else that gets news coverage avoids dealing with the actual issues.
Fixed for you
Given a set of issues that the Tories seem unable to fix (teacher recruitment, education, health care, immigration, trade talks , deficits ) talking about Brexit all the time gets news coverage and avoids dealing with the actual issues.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
They will throw Gibralter to the wolves, residents better brush up on Spanish and cooking paella.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
No, I was under the illusion that they would act rationally. As Tusk says, Brexit doesn't have to be punitive, leaving the EU is painful enough in itself. So rational self interest says the EU should let the UK leave and swiftly agree a Free Trade deal.
If they wanna act like a bunch of twats, then that does change things. So we crash out, so what. Fuck 'em.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Yeah, but what will your position be by this evening?
Missionary
Spreading the word among young Corbynites, Hallelujah!
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
Whether we are or not is hardly the point. It's not in their interests to treat us like shit anymore than we should treat them like shit. Even if that would hit us more, it doesn't maximise their interests to be outright antagonistic.
Difference is they know we are shit and will treat us accordingly. A hard Brexit's gonna fall.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
It's the rank hypocrisy that gets me.
We broach security co-operation and it's a "threat" that is "bullying" and "antagonistic".
They broach part of our country and it's "a negotiating position" that "might be necessary to get the best deal".
Security co-operation and Gibraltar are staying, Merkel and May are grown ups.
Quite. They can go fuck themselves with five hundred frozen pilchards.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. We've had very senior EU politicians talking about "punishing" or even "damaging" Britain. These are the words of hostile powers, not friends. But if we so much as mention the fact we are, you know, quite helpful on security issues, then apparently we are crazed bullies.
Sure, Britain's tabloids can be excitable and stupid, but I've not heard TMay or Philip Hammond say "we want to hurt the EU," "we want the EU to suffer".
This breakdown in communication is what leads me to Casino's view. This will get very heated very quickly, and could go into meltdown very easily. Nuclear Brexit.
I think the EU would come to regret making an enemy of the UK very quickly. I suspect the order of events will be: 1. Mutual frustration 2. Impasse 3. Anger 4. Diamond Brexit (WTO and nothing else at all) 5. Regret 6. Elections 7. This is nuts 8. Can we talk? 9. Sure - wanna free trade deal? 10. OK
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
It's the rank hypocrisy that gets me.
We broach security co-operation and it's a "threat" that is "bullying" and "antagonistic".
They broach part of our country and it's "a negotiating position" that "might be necessary to get the best deal".
Security co-operation and Gibraltar are staying, Merkel and May are grown ups.
Quite. They can go fuck themselves with five hundred frozen pilchards.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. We've had very senior EU politicians talking about "punishing" or even "damaging" Britain. These are the words of hostile powers, not friends. But if we so much as mention the fact we are, you know, quite helpful on security issues, then apparently we are crazed bullies.
Sure, Britain's tabloids can be excitable and stupid, but I've not heard TMay or Philip Hammond say "we want to hurt the EU," "we want the EU to suffer".
This breakdown in communication is what leads me to Casino's view. This will get very heated very quickly, and could go into meltdown very easily. Nuclear Brexit.
Does the outrage bus route plot a permanent loop round Camden?
They may not have heard it directly from May and Hammond but they've had to listen to plenty from the likes of Farage and his chums out on the lunatic fringe of the Tory party.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
It's the rank hypocrisy that gets me.
We broach security co-operation and it's a "threat" that is "bullying" and "antagonistic".
They broach part of our country and it's "a negotiating position" that "might be necessary to get the best deal".
Security co-operation and Gibraltar are staying, Merkel and May are grown ups.
Quite. They can go fuck themselves with five hundred frozen pilchards.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. We've had very senior EU politicians talking about "punishing" or even "damaging" Britain. These are the words of hostile powers, not friends. But if we so much as mention the fact we are, you know, quite helpful on security issues, then apparently we are crazed bullies.
Sure, Britain's tabloids can be excitable and stupid, but I've not heard TMay or Philip Hammond say "we want to hurt the EU," "we want the EU to suffer".
This breakdown in communication is what leads me to Casino's view. This will get very heated very quickly, and could go into meltdown very easily. Nuclear Brexit.
I think the EU would come to regret making an enemy of the UK very quickly. I suspect the order of events will be: 1. Mutual frustration 2. Impasse 3. Anger 4. Diamond Brexit (WTO and nothing else at all) 5. Regret 6. Elections 7. This is nuts 8. Can we talk? 9. Sure - wanna free trade deal? 10. OK
I love this steadfast loyalty towards Gibraltar. Before we [ and them ] joined the EEC / EU, a British citizen actually needed a work permit to work there. So much for their loyalty.
FPT: Mr. Pulpstar, your jest does raise an interesting question. Obviously we have the enormous issue of the EU, but will we otherwise see a swing back to the governing party? Likewise, has the stigma of voting Conservative disappeared, which might reduce/abolish the shy Conservative factor?
There is almostalways(*) a 'swingback' to the governing party from an aggregate of by-elections or local results
(*) Checked back to 1966-70 government thus far.
Kind of why Copeland was important. It means Labour could lose more than Copeland at the GE. Alot more.
Or it means we are in a suis generis situation and the old observations won't hold. Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Generating theories based on past data is no more than storytelling. For each set of data, multiple stories, each internally consistent, can be told. Swingback is disprovable, with the first instance it does not hold good. But each time swing back happens, all it does in confirm our bias for this story - it proves nothing.
The US economy and superbowl results should with no prior or post information be independent of each other.
By-elections and General Elections and local elections have the common factor of PEOPLE GOING OUT TO FECKING VOTE. I do not see what a model that is clearly coincidence has to do with a voting model based off of actual voting.
Frankly, for a man of some skill in the area, I am surprised that you are having difficulty grasping the concept I am offering as a mere caution to overconfidence in statistical findings.
Let's leave it at that.
The six most expensive words in political betting "This time it will be different"
I think "Jim Murphy" were actually the two most expensive words for many
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
Whether we are or not is hardly the point. It's not in their interests to treat us like shit anymore than we should treat them like shit. Even if that would hit us more, it doesn't maximise their interests to be outright antagonistic.
Difference is they know we are shit and will treat us accordingly. A hard Brexit's gonna fall.
It is most likely. But if they hurt themselves simply to treat us like shit, then they are not the rational, noble force they present as and no good deal was ever possible.
A mutually beneficial deal is doable, but the arseholes on both sides need overcoming. My main objection is the idea were the only ones with arseholes, advanced by some with the impression only we are capable of bring unreasonable.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
It's the rank hypocrisy that gets me.
We broach security co-operation and it's a "threat" that is "bullying" and "antagonistic".
They broach part of our country and it's "a negotiating position" that "might be necessary to get the best deal".
Security co-operation and Gibraltar are staying, Merkel and May are grown ups.
Quite. They can go fuck themselves with five hundred frozen pilchards.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. We've had very senior EU politicians talking about "punishing" or even "damaging" Britain. These are the words of hostile powers, not friends. But if we so much as mention the fact we are, you know, quite helpful on security issues, then apparently we are crazed bullies.
Sure, Britain's tabloids can be excitable and stupid, but I've not heard TMay or Philip Hammond say "we want to hurt the EU," "we want the EU to suffer".
This breakdown in communication is what leads me to Casino's view. This will get very heated very quickly, and could go into meltdown very easily. Nuclear Brexit.
I think the EU would come to regret making an enemy of the UK very quickly. I suspect the order of events will be: 1. Mutual frustration 2. Impasse 3. Anger 4. Diamond Brexit (WTO and nothing else at all) 5. Regret 6. Elections 7. This is nuts 8. Can we talk? 9. Sure - wanna free trade deal? 10. OK
Much less than a decade from 1 to 10.
Half a decade of unnecessary pain for both sides, though.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
It's nothing to do with that - the exit deal does apply and it doesn't stop or interrupt anything.
The truth is much simpler. Spain always thought that EU membership on all three sides would make it easier to recapture the Rock through diplomatic means. They see this as their last roll of the dice. As they've said a few times, if this last push fails then their chance has gone forever.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
I think we will find the EU are all mouth and no trousers - there will be some bold words but they will sign up in the end so something fairly reasonable.
One only has to look at Serbia and Ukraine to see that they can be fronted down or ignored and the are toothless to respond.
FPT: Mr. Pulpstar, your jest does raise an interesting question. Obviously we have the enormous issue of the EU, but will we otherwise see a swing back to the governing party? Likewise, has the stigma of voting Conservative disappeared, which might reduce/abolish the shy Conservative factor?
There is almostalways(*) a 'swingback' to the governing party from an aggregate of by-elections or local results
(*) Checked back to 1966-70 government thus far.
Kind of why Copeland was important. It means Labour could lose more than Copeland at the GE. Alot more.
Or it means we are in a suis generis situation and the old observations won't hold. Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Generating theories based on past data is no more than storytelling. For each set of data, multiple stories, each internally consistent, can be told. Swingback is disprovable, with the first instance it does not hold good. But each time swing back happens, all it does in confirm our bias for this story - it proves nothing.
The US economy and superbowl results should with no prior or post information be independent of each other.
By-elections and General Elections and local elections have the common factor of PEOPLE GOING OUT TO FECKING VOTE. I do not see what a model that is clearly coincidence has to do with a voting model based off of actual voting.
Frankly, for a man of some skill in the area, I am surprised that you are having difficulty grasping the concept I am offering as a mere caution to overconfidence in statistical findings.
Let's leave it at that.
The six most expensive words in political betting "This time it will be different"
I think "Jim Murphy" were actually the two most expensive words for many
Ruthie seems to be getting "Jim Murphy" syndrome nowadays. Now she has taken them from 24% to 22% she thinks she will be next FM.
rcs1000 - A quote from Col Kemp - the former Commander of British Forces in Afghanistan
"Indeed, reducing the influence of Nato and the US is the aim for several EU members, especially France and Germany. And if we undercut Nato, that aim will succeed, leading to US retrenchment."
"A centralised army is an indispensable component of the superstate to which the EU is openly committed. It would also provide an excuse for struggling economies to slash defence budgets. Few nations take defence seriously enough to spend even the 2 per cent of GDP required by Nato, a shortcoming criticised by President Obama in Germany last month. An EU army will see these nations cut back even further, cynically pretending that defences are strengthened even as forces and capabilities are merged and downsized."
I read in Spiegel that Germany is preparing for the collapse of Nato - she has approached the UK to see if we will offer a nuclear umbrella to Europe after the US withdraws. TMay's suggestion that we might withdraw from European defence too didn't go down too well a few days ago, but it seems a certainty to me.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
It's the rank hypocrisy that gets me.
We broach security co-operation and it's a "threat" that is "bullying" and "antagonistic".
They broach part of our country and it's "a negotiating position" that "might be necessary to get the best deal".
Security co-operation and Gibraltar are staying, Merkel and May are grown ups.
Quite. They can go fuck themselves with five hundred frozen pilchards.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. We've had very senior EU politicians talking about "punishing" or even "damaging" Britain. These are the words of hostile powers, not friends. But if we so much as mention the fact we are, you know, quite helpful on security issues, then apparently we are crazed bullies.
Sure, Britain's tabloids can be excitable and stupid, but I've not heard TMay or Philip Hammond say "we want to hurt the EU," "we want the EU to suffer".
This breakdown in communication is what leads me to Casino's view. This will get very heated very quickly, and could go into meltdown very easily. Nuclear Brexit.
I think the EU would come to regret making an enemy of the UK very quickly. I suspect the order of events will be: 1. Mutual frustration 2. Impasse 3. Anger 4. Diamond Brexit (WTO and nothing else at all) 5. Regret 6. Elections 7. This is nuts 8. Can we talk? 9. Sure - wanna free trade deal? 10. OK
Much less than a decade from 1 to 10.
Half a decade of unnecessary pain for both sides, though.
Many of us have felt that way for 40 years. It's a trifle. Some like to paint diamond Brexit as us eating our dead and tumbleweed rolling down the streets in a post-apocalyptic wilderness. Bollocks. It'll be like having one of our regular recessions. Or less.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
It's project Fuck You, Britain. And it might end calamitously for all sides.
I can't see how it will end badly, people will still buy things they want to buy and visit places they want to.
Opportunity cost. Trade might have been freer, commerce might have benefited all parties more. Rates of economic growth will be slowed, probably not to the point of tipping anyone into recession. It's difficult to get too exercised about on a rational level.
I love this steadfast loyalty towards Gibraltar. Before we [ and them ] joined the EEC / EU, a British citizen actually needed a work permit to work there. So much for their loyalty.
I wonder what will happen on Brexit.
That's a bit misleading. Everyone has to apply for a work permit, residency permit and ID card. These all expire and need to be renewed complete with a pile of paperwork, even if you are born here.
I love this steadfast loyalty towards Gibraltar. Before we [ and them ] joined the EEC / EU, a British citizen actually needed a work permit to work there. So much for their loyalty.
I wonder what will happen on Brexit.
That's a bit misleading. Everyone has to apply for a work permit, residency permit and ID card. These all expire and need to be renewed complete with a pile of paperwork, even if you are born here.
Sounds like a lot of bureaucracy and red tape. No wonder you want to leave the EU so you can get rid of it all.
I love this steadfast loyalty towards Gibraltar. Before we [ and them ] joined the EEC / EU, a British citizen actually needed a work permit to work there. So much for their loyalty.
I wonder what will happen on Brexit.
That's a bit misleading. Everyone has to apply for a work permit, residency permit and ID card. These all expire and need to be renewed complete with a pile of paperwork, even if you are born here.
What if you don't reapply for a residency permit, even if you were born there?
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
I think we will find the EU are all mouth and no trousers - there will be some bold words but they will sign up in the end so something fairly reasonable.
One only has to look at Serbia and Ukraine to see that they can be fronted down or ignored and the are toothless to respond.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
It's the rank hypocrisy that gets me.
We broach security co-operation and it's a "threat" that is "bullying" and "antagonistic".
They broach part of our country and it's "a negotiating position" that "might be necessary to get the best deal".
Security co-operation and Gibraltar are staying, Merkel and May are grown ups.
Quite. They can go fuck themselves with five hundred frozen pilchards.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. We've had very senior EU politicians talking about "punishing" or even "damaging" Britain. These are the words of hostile powers, not friends. But if we so much as mention the fact we are, you know, quite helpful on security issues, then apparently we are crazed bullies.
Sure, Britain's tabloids can be excitable and stupid, but I've not heard TMay or Philip Hammond say "we want to hurt the EU," "we want the EU to suffer".
This breakdown in communication is what leads me to Casino's view. This will get very heated very quickly, and could go into meltdown very easily. Nuclear Brexit.
The problem is and has always been that the EU doesn't do flexible or pragmatic. If it did we wouldn't be leaving.
Look at their response to rise of anti-EU sentiment on Holland,France, Italy, Greece...It isn't hmm perhaps we need to listen...No it's more ever closer EU needed and less powers for those countries. Too much EU is never the problem , the problems are too little EU.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
It's the rank hypocrisy that gets me.
We broach security co-operation and it's a "threat" that is "bullying" and "antagonistic".
They broach part of our country and it's "a negotiating position" that "might be necessary to get the best deal".
Security co-operation and Gibraltar are staying, Merkel and May are grown ups.
Quite. They can go fuck themselves with five hundred frozen pilchards.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. We've had very senior EU politicians talking about "punishing" or even "damaging" Britain. These are the words of hostile powers, not friends. But if we so much as mention the fact we are, you know, quite helpful on security issues, then apparently we are crazed bullies.
Sure, Britain's tabloids can be excitable and stupid, but I've not heard TMay or Philip Hammond say "we want to hurt the EU," "we want the EU to suffer".
This breakdown in communication is what leads me to Casino's view. This will get very heated very quickly, and could go into meltdown very easily. Nuclear Brexit.
I think the EU would come to regret making an enemy of the UK very quickly. I suspect the order of events will be: 1. Mutual frustration 2. Impasse 3. Anger 4. Diamond Brexit (WTO and nothing else at all) 5. Regret 6. Elections 7. This is nuts 8. Can we talk? 9. Sure - wanna free trade deal? 10. OK
Much less than a decade from 1 to 10.
Half a decade of unnecessary pain for both sides, though.
Many of us have felt that way for 40 years. It's a trifle. Some like to paint diamond Brexit as us eating our dead and tumbleweed rolling down the streets in a post-apocalyptic wilderness. Bollocks. It'll be like having one of our regular recessions. Or less.
Of course if we get Diamond Hard Brexit there are advantages. We won't have to give them a fucking centime.
Indeed. That nice Mrs May was dead right when she said no deal is alot better than a bad deal. I suspect she means it. She tends to mean what she says. Shame Dave wasn't the same really.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
Sounds an idea.
I can't imagine the Irish are happy with that clause from Spain. Threatening sanctions (effectively) and one assumes playing administrative silly buggers with border crossings etc might have echoes elsewhere.
The Gibraltar stuff apart, Tusk's statement was pretty sensible and left enough wiggle room to do a reasonable deal.
rcs1000 - A quote from Col Kemp - the former Commander of British Forces in Afghanistan
"Indeed, reducing the influence of Nato and the US is the aim for several EU members, especially France and Germany. And if we undercut Nato, that aim will succeed, leading to US retrenchment."
"A centralised army is an indispensable component of the superstate to which the EU is openly committed. It would also provide an excuse for struggling economies to slash defence budgets. Few nations take defence seriously enough to spend even the 2 per cent of GDP required by Nato, a shortcoming criticised by President Obama in Germany last month. An EU army will see these nations cut back even further, cynically pretending that defences are strengthened even as forces and capabilities are merged and downsized."
I read in Spiegel that Germany is preparing for the collapse of Nato - she has approached the UK to see if we will offer a nuclear umbrella to Europe after the US withdraws. TMay's suggestion that we might withdraw from European defence too didn't go down too well a few days ago, but it seems a certainty to me.
As a Brit, I think it would be a good idea nuke wise. If the German's have asked for that, then Merkel needs to bitch slap Juncker etc into line.
Well given that the Vote Remain campaign said Voting Leave will mean "instant recession, an immediate surge in unemployment, etc etc" then yes, the Vote Remain campaign managed to look ridiculous within mere WEEKS of the referendum.
Talking about dating badly, how's it going with your latest 21 year old, Sean?
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
It's the rank hypocrisy that gets me.
We broach security co-operation and it's a "threat" that is "bullying" and "antagonistic".
They broach part of our country and it's "a negotiating position" that "might be necessary to get the best deal".
Security co-operation and Gibraltar are staying, Merkel and May are grown ups.
Quite. They can go fuck themselves with five hundred frozen pilchards.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. We've had very senior EU politicians talking about "punishing" or even "damaging" Britain. These are the words of hostile powers, not friends. But if we so much as mention the fact we are, you know, quite helpful on security issues, then apparently we are crazed bullies.
Sure, Britain's tabloids can be excitable and stupid, but I've not heard TMay or Philip Hammond say "we want to hurt the EU," "we want the EU to suffer".
This breakdown in communication is what leads me to Casino's view. This will get very heated very quickly, and could go into meltdown very easily. Nuclear Brexit.
Does the outrage bus route plot a permanent loop round Camden?
They may not have heard it directly from May and Hammond but they've had to listen to plenty from the likes of Farage and his chums out on the lunatic fringe of the Tory party.
Farage isn't even an MP, and the nutters are clearly nutters. Meanwhile the actual French president has said "there must be a threat, there must be a price" on Brexit.
Imagine TMay saying "there must be a threat to the EU, there must be a price they pay"
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
We voted to make Gibraltar's future a bilateral issue to be talked about by Spain and the UK. That is what will happen. There's a reason why Gibraltar voted to Remain.
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
It seems various aspects of leaving the EU are a continual surprise to the hard-case brexiteers. We can't have our cake and it eat.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
After decades of being half-committed to the whole project and often being the contrary problem child, we have now kicked a hole in their budget and said "We're off". What did you expect them to do? Kiss us?
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
It's the rank hypocrisy that gets me.
We broach security co-operation and it's a "threat" that is "bullying" and "antagonistic".
They broach part of our country and it's "a negotiating position" that "might be necessary to get the best deal".
Security co-operation and Gibraltar are staying, Merkel and May are grown ups.
Quite. They can go fuck themselves with five hundred frozen pilchards.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. We've had very senior EU politicians talking about "punishing" or even "damaging" Britain. These are the words of hostile powers, not friends. But if we so much as mention the fact we are, you know, quite helpful on security issues, then apparently we are crazed bullies.
Sure, Britain's tabloids can be excitable and stupid, but I've not heard TMay or Philip Hammond say "we want to hurt the EU," "we want the EU to suffer".
This breakdown in communication is what leads me to Casino's view. This will get very heated very quickly, and could go into meltdown very easily. Nuclear Brexit.
Does the outrage bus route plot a permanent loop round Camden?
They may not have heard it directly from May and Hammond but they've had to listen to plenty from the likes of Farage and his chums out on the lunatic fringe of the Tory party.
Farage isn't even an MP, and the nutters are clearly nutters. Meanwhile the actual French president has said "there must be a threat, there must be a price" on Brexit.
Imagine TMay saying "there must be a threat to the EU, there must be a price they pay"
The attitude of the EU since last June has convinced me that this is no longer a club we want to be a member of.
Yes totally. As more has come out I've been quietly horrified how far we are (were) "in". But the mindset and utter lack of any introspection on our leaving or their flaws is notable. Maybe they just really don't care or see the need, in which case fair enough, but it shows to me we need out. The whole way out.
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
There was a joke in Russia that in retaliation for Western sanctions, Putin threatened to bomb Voronezh. We're going to give him some stiff competition in cutting off our nose to spite our face.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
We voted to make Gibraltar's future a bilateral issue to be talked about by Spain and the UK. That is what will happen. There's a reason why Gibraltar voted to Remain.
The government's position on Gibraltar has been very clear, it won't do anything against the wishes of the people there. I can't see that changing.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
After decades of being half-committed to the whole project and often being the contrary problem child, we have now kicked a hole in their budget and said "We're off". What did you expect them to do? Kiss us?
The very posters who before the referendum assured us that negotiations would be a formality are the posters who are now manning the pillboxes.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
After decades of being half-committed to the whole project and often being the contrary problem child, we have now kicked a hole in their budget and said "We're off". What did you expect them to do? Kiss us?
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
After decades of being half-committed to the whole project and often being the contrary problem child, we have now kicked a hole in their budget and said "We're off". What did you expect them to do? Kiss us?
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
It seems various aspects of leaving the EU are a continual surprise to the hard-case brexiteers. We can't have our cake and it eat.
Voters were clearly and repeatedly told Gibraltar's position would be threatened by Brexit. They decided it did not matter enough to vote to Remain. That's democracy for you.
We also opened our doors to Eastern Europe when France and Germany said Non. Etc etc etc. All this is so quickly and easily overlooked.
Yes but we did it out of self-interest, not altruism. We thought we were stealing an economic march on France and Germany, and in some respects we were.
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
Mr. Observer, or those who voted Leave believed the UK would not crumble before Spain, and would respect the right of the people of Gibraltar to determine whose flag flies over them.
Mr. T, quite. Our departure, as someone else posted here yesterday, removes the non-eurozone nations' QMV blocking minority, and means Germany has lost a major partner in fiscal sanity. Club Med is now relatively more powerful to a significant degree.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
We voted to make Gibraltar's future a bilateral issue to be talked about by Spain and the UK. That is what will happen. There's a reason why Gibraltar voted to Remain.
The government's position on Gibraltar has been very clear, it won't do anything against the wishes of the people there. I can't see that changing.
Yep - I agree. All that is happening now is what we were told would happen if we voted to Leave.
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
It seems various aspects of leaving the EU are a continual surprise to the hard-case brexiteers. We can't have our cake and it eat.
Voters were clearly and repeatedly told Gibraltar's position would be threatened by Brexit. They decided it did not matter enough to vote to Remain. That's democracy for you.
They were? I would have thought a detail like that would have been a footnote in the campaign.
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
It seems various aspects of leaving the EU are a continual surprise to the hard-case brexiteers. We can't have our cake and it eat.
Voters were clearly and repeatedly told Gibraltar's position would be threatened by Brexit. They decided it did not matter enough to vote to Remain. That's democracy for you.
Gibraltar's position is threatened by Spain, with or without Brexit.
There's a difference between not having cake to eat and having the table smashed to bits. The sensible will avoid the latter, but idiots on both sides are happy for it to occur even if they get hut by chunks too. Punitive, antagonistic behaviour is not the same as arguing your corner hard. It was always going to be hard, and contrary to comments the sensible never denied that.
We also opened our doors to Eastern Europe when France and Germany said Non. Etc etc etc. All this is so quickly and easily overlooked.
Yes but we did it out of self-interest, not altruism. We thought we were stealing an economic march on France and Germany, and in some respects we were.
So, again, *anything* Britain does is "selfish", whereas anything the EU does is "principled and honourable". Whenever Britain says "look we co-operate on security", we're crazy bullies, whenever an EU president says "Britain must suffer" they're being honest and clear.
.
This part at least is a fair criticism of the more extreme.
Presumably, when Article 50 was drafted, it was envisaged that a member State would have the right to withdraw from the EU. Given that was the case, there can be no reasonable grounds for bitterness towards this country for exercising its rights under the Lisbon Treaty - provided always that we comply with our legal obligations towards the rest of the EU.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
Sounds an idea.
I can't imagine the Irish are happy with that clause from Spain. Threatening sanctions (effectively) and one assumes playing administrative silly buggers with border crossings etc might have echoes elsewhere.
The Gibraltar stuff apart, Tusk's statement was pretty sensible and left enough wiggle room to do a reasonable deal.
Quite aside from the fact that the Irish will be desperate for the UK to get a good deal. This Gibraltar play makes that harder.
Doesn't help that both Blair and Corbyn are mapped completely wrongly. Blair was no Sound Money kind of Thatcherite. We had two years of 'prudence for a purpose' and then he let Gordo rip. Top middle for him I think. Or maybe a bit lower. Corbyn. Libertarian! He's a commie FFS! Middle left for Corbyn. Or higher. (Maybe alot higher). They're not in opposite corners of the whole map, they're in opposite corners of the red quadrant.
I love this steadfast loyalty towards Gibraltar. Before we [ and them ] joined the EEC / EU, a British citizen actually needed a work permit to work there. So much for their loyalty.
I wonder what will happen on Brexit.
That's a bit misleading. Everyone has to apply for a work permit, residency permit and ID card. These all expire and need to be renewed complete with a pile of paperwork, even if you are born here.
What if you don't reapply for a residency permit, even if you were born there?
Do they throw you off the top?
LOL a while ago mine expired for a year or so. Nobody noticed. But it comes alongside the ID card and sooner or later you need that for your MOT or to visit the hospital or open a bank account or some other interaction with officialdom.
And then you have to rush around a bit getting passport-sized photos etc! Technically it's an offence to be more than 6 months adrift.
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
It seems various aspects of leaving the EU are a continual surprise to the hard-case brexiteers. We can't have our cake and it eat.
Voters were clearly and repeatedly told Gibraltar's position would be threatened by Brexit. They decided it did not matter enough to vote to Remain. That's democracy for you.
Gibraltar's position is threatened by Spain, with or without Brexit.
It was much less of an issue while we were part of the EU, hence Gibraltar's overwhelming Remain vote. Clearly, it was not a big issue for voters in the UK. That said, Spain will not invade and Gibraltar will remain British for as long as Gibraltarians wish it.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
Sounds an idea.
I can't imagine the Irish are happy with that clause from Spain. Threatening sanctions (effectively) and one assumes playing administrative silly buggers with border crossings etc might have echoes elsewhere.
The Gibraltar stuff apart, Tusk's statement was pretty sensible and left enough wiggle room to do a reasonable deal.
Quite aside from the fact that the Irish will be desperate for the UK to get a good deal. This Gibraltar play makes that harder.
Yes that's my point. Hopefully storm in a teacup, and as others pointed out given it's so tiny we can chuck money at them to compensate. Just like to be a fly on the wall when Enda Kenny's next in Madrid.
One of my favourites was when Osborne did his last budget and said he was aiming to finish off the Lib Dems. What the press office say? We're not worried - he's missed all his other targets.
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
You seem to have forgotten your own rather embarrassing meltdown over the equally anodyne British paper just a couple of days ago.
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
It seems various aspects of leaving the EU are a continual surprise to the hard-case brexiteers. We can't have our cake and it eat.
Voters were clearly and repeatedly told Gibraltar's position would be threatened by Brexit. They decided it did not matter enough to vote to Remain. That's democracy for you.
Gibraltar's position is threatened by Spain, with or without Brexit.
It was much less of an issue while we were part of the EU, hence Gibraltar's overwhelming Remain vote. Clearly, it was not a big issue for voters in the UK. That said, Spain will not invade and Gibraltar will remain British for as long as Gibraltarians wish it.
And the Gibraltarians have realised they can prosper, mightily, outside the EU. This years's estimated GDP growth - 7.5%
The bigger point is that the EU has allowed Spain a veto over the final deal, on this point, and they are expected to make some mad Gibraltar demand at the last minute. So it seriously raises the chances of Crash Bang Brexit.
I thought the text referred to agreements made after Brexit, not the exit deal itself? Or has that been clarified.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
We voted to make Gibraltar's future a bilateral issue to be talked about by Spain and the UK. That is what will happen. There's a reason why Gibraltar voted to Remain.
The government's position on Gibraltar has been very clear, it won't do anything against the wishes of the people there. I can't see that changing.
Yep - I agree. All that is happening now is what we were told would happen if we voted to Leave.
Correct - hence the big remain vote on the Rock. Spain will try it on but I suspect little will change there. It's actually the most godawful dump of a place to be fair - just an hour or so away are the beautiful and much cheaper jewels of Jerez and Cadiz!
I see that the North Korean Leave strand is strong this afternoon. If the Leavers are this febrile after an anodyne draft statement of negotiating principles, they're going to be firing nukes by the time substantive negotiations start.
It seems various aspects of leaving the EU are a continual surprise to the hard-case brexiteers. We can't have our cake and it eat.
Voters were clearly and repeatedly told Gibraltar's position would be threatened by Brexit. They decided it did not matter enough to vote to Remain. That's democracy for you.
Gibraltar's position is threatened by Spain, with or without Brexit.
It was much less of an issue while we were part of the EU, hence Gibraltar's overwhelming Remain vote. Clearly, it was not a big issue for voters in the UK. That said, Spain will not invade and Gibraltar will remain British for as long as Gibraltarians wish it.
And the Gibraltarians have realised they can prosper, mightily, outside the EU. This years's estimated GDP growth - 7.5%
The bigger point is that the EU has allowed Spain a veto over the final deal, on this point, and they are expected to make some mad Gibraltar demand at the last minute. So it seriously raises the chances of Crash Bang Brexit.
Spain was always going to have that. But it's all talk.
I wonder if Corbyn will cal for Gibaltar to be given to Spain.
I wonder if Gibraltar will call for Gibraltar to be given EU membership? This would make it immune from the Spanish forever and keep it in the EU. The Catalonia Question would not apply as Gib is already legally separate from the UK (being a colony).
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
We voted to make Gibraltar's future a bilateral issue to be talked about by Spain and the UK. That is what will happen. There's a reason why Gibraltar voted to Remain.
The government's position on Gibraltar has been very clear, it won't do anything against the wishes of the people there. I can't see that changing.
Yep - I agree. All that is happening now is what we were told would happen if we voted to Leave.
Correct - hence the big remain vote on the Rock. Spain will try it on but I suspect little will change there. It's actually the most godawful dump of a place to be fair - just an hour or so away are the beautiful and much cheaper jewels of Jerez and Cadiz!
maybe we could offer the Spaniards a deal and swap Scotland for Catalonia
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
We voted to make Gibraltar's future a bilateral issue to be talked about by Spain and the UK. That is what will happen. There's a reason why Gibraltar voted to Remain.
The government's position on Gibraltar has been very clear, it won't do anything against the wishes of the people there. I can't see that changing.
Yep - I agree. All that is happening now is what we were told would happen if we voted to Leave.
Correct - hence the big remain vote on the Rock. Spain will try it on but I suspect little will change there. It's actually the most godawful dump of a place to be fair - just an hour or so away are the beautiful and much cheaper jewels of Jerez and Cadiz!
La Linea and Algeciras nearby Gibraltar are real dumps though.
I wonder if Corbyn will cal for Gibaltar to be given to Spain.
I wonder if Gibraltar will call for Gibraltar to be given EU membership? This would make it immune from the Spanish forever and keep it in the EU. The Catalonia Question would not apply as Gib is already legally separate from the UK (being a colony).
I don't believe we can just let them go independent without asking Spain if they want them back under the terms of the Treaty.
I wonder if Corbyn will cal for Gibaltar to be given to Spain.
I wonder if Gibraltar will call for Gibraltar to be given EU membership? This would make it immune from the Spanish forever and keep it in the EU. The Catalonia Question would not apply as Gib is already legally separate from the UK (being a colony).
I don't believe we can just let them go independent without asking Spain if they want them back under the terms of the Treaty.
Think they have first dibs under the Treaty of Utrecht otherwise it might've become a Monaco of the Costa del Sol years ago.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
We voted to make Gibraltar's future a bilateral issue to be talked about by Spain and the UK. That is what will happen. There's a reason why Gibraltar voted to Remain.
The government's position on Gibraltar has been very clear, it won't do anything against the wishes of the people there. I can't see that changing.
Yep - I agree. All that is happening now is what we were told would happen if we voted to Leave.
Correct - hence the big remain vote on the Rock. Spain will try it on but I suspect little will change there. It's actually the most godawful dump of a place to be fair - just an hour or so away are the beautiful and much cheaper jewels of Jerez and Cadiz!
maybe we could offer the Spaniards a deal and swap Scotland for Catalonia
There is no Labour line on anything anymore. It's not just the time it takes. Look what happened when they asked Corbyn about Labour's view on Scottish independence.
Their only Scottish MP was incandescent as was Kesia Dugdale. If the leadership say the first thing that comes into their heads they can't really be described as a party. It wasn't Milne who did it but Corbyn
And this is the point.
Even if Milne had the abilities, contacts and passion of Alistair Campbell in his prime - which he doesn't, to put it mildly - he would still be incapable of operating because he'd be undermined by his leader.
How often have we seen a Lab front-bencher undercut by the leader either spouting off in advance of agreeing a line, or riffing off-key after one's been agreed?
All too often the sequence would be:
9am media asked for Lab line on event; 9.20am Lab office responds; 10am morning news bulletin includes Lab line in coverage 11am Corbyn asked for view; 11.01am Corbyn gives view which contradicts line; 11.05am media contact Lab office seeking clarification 11.30am Lab office issues new statement seeking to paper over the cracks 11.40am Further queries from media as to why Lab has U-turned. noon and subsequently: media leads story with 'Labour split'.
In any case, a competent media chief wouldn't stay in the Labour office because it would be too damaging to his/her reputation. Milne is the symptom, not the cause.
One of my favourites was when Osborne did his last budget and said he was aiming to finish off the Lib Dems. What the press office say? We're not worried - he's missed all his other targets.
Although he did hit the Lib Dems when he wasn't aiming at them (or at least, when he was only expecting to blow the doors off).
I wonder if Corbyn will cal for Gibaltar to be given to Spain.
I wonder if Gibraltar will call for Gibraltar to be given EU membership? This would make it immune from the Spanish forever and keep it in the EU. The Catalonia Question would not apply as Gib is already legally separate from the UK (being a colony).
I don't believe we can just let them go independent without asking Spain if they want them back under the terms of the Treaty.
Think they have first dibs under the Treaty of Utrecht otherwise it might've become a Monaco of the Costa del Sol years ago.
Unlike Spain, we abide by international treaties...
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
Why do you think that is not the plan ? Are you still under the illusion that we are very important ?
It's the rank hypocrisy that gets me.
We broach security co-operation and it's a "threat" that is "bullying" and "antagonistic".
They broach part of our country and it's "a negotiating position" that "might be necessary to get the best deal".
Security co-operation and Gibraltar are staying, Merkel and May are grown ups.
Quite. They can go fuck themselves with five hundred frozen pilchards.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. We've had very senior EU politicians talking about "punishing" or even "damaging" Britain. These are the words of hostile powers, not friends. But if we so much as mention the fact we are, you know, quite helpful on security issues, then apparently we are crazed bullies.
Sure, Britain's tabloids can be excitable and stupid, but I've not heard TMay or Philip Hammond say "we want to hurt the EU," "we want the EU to suffer".
This breakdown in communication is what leads me to Casino's view. This will get very heated very quickly, and could go into meltdown very easily. Nuclear Brexit.
I think the EU would come to regret making an enemy of the UK very quickly. I suspect the order of events will be: 1. Mutual frustration 2. Impasse 3. Anger 4. Diamond Brexit (WTO and nothing else at all) 5. Regret 6. Elections 7. This is nuts 8. Can we talk? 9. Sure - wanna free trade deal? 10. OK
Much less than a decade from 1 to 10.
Dad's army is being mustered as we speak
That's funny!
Nothing quite like watching the PB faithful round the campfire.....
A way to get around the Gibraltar issue if needs be would be to just make it a full incorporated part of the United Kingdom. Give them a Member of Parliament and keep it fully devolved. Can't be treated differently then.
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
After decades of being half-committed to the whole project and often being the contrary problem child, we have now kicked a hole in their budget and said "We're off". What did you expect them to do? Kiss us?
When has the EU ever kept to their budget?
When has the UK government ever kept to their budget? Ministry of Defence contract anyone?
Doesn't help that both Blair and Corbyn are mapped completely wrongly. Blair was no Sound Money kind of Thatcherite. We had two years of 'prudence for a purpose' and then he let Gordo rip. Top middle for him I think. Or maybe a bit lower. Corbyn. Libertarian! He's a commie FFS! Middle left for Corbyn. Or higher. (Maybe alot higher). They're not in opposite corners of the whole map, they're in opposite corners of the red quadrant.
A way to get around the Gibraltar issue if needs be would be to just make it a full incorporated part of the United Kingdom. Give them a Member of Parliament and keep it fully devolved. Can't be treated differently then.
Someone else suggested this down-thread. Is there a legal basis for this argument?
I'm coming round to the Casino Royale view of Brexit. It's possible the EU is going to overplay its hand (which is fairly stupid, given that their hand is already strong), they will antagonise us too much, and we will crash out, with no deal.
Brace position.
After decades of being half-committed to the whole project and often being the contrary problem child, we have now kicked a hole in their budget and said "We're off". What did you expect them to do? Kiss us?
When has the EU ever kept to their budget?
When has the UK government ever kept to their budget? Ministry of Defence contract anyone?
The UK government budget has been in surplus from time to time, and hasn't defaulted on any debt during it's existence.
So has the Gibraltar story been dismissed as Project Fear?
Project Fume.
The EU are really annoyed with us.
Is there something I'm not getting? I thought the whole Gibraltar thing was all about whether or not the UK's exit deal applied to Gibraltar or not, and not whether or not the agreement could proceed?
If so, it's a non-issue. Any sabre-rattling by Spain can be dealt with easily in one of two ways, according to the taste of the Gibraltarian people:
1. Offer them a vote on joining the UK. If Gibraltar decides to become a constituent part of the UK rather than an overseas territory, then the exit deal automatically applies to it. And why not? France already has several remote overseas departments that count as an integral part of the country. 2. If Gibraltar doesn't want to join the UK, then throw so much money at it that any problems caused by Spain are more than compensated for. There are only about thirty thousand people there. How expensive can it be?
We voted to make Gibraltar's future a bilateral issue to be talked about by Spain and the UK. That is what will happen. There's a reason why Gibraltar voted to Remain.
The government's position on Gibraltar has been very clear, it won't do anything against the wishes of the people there. I can't see that changing.
Yep - I agree. All that is happening now is what we were told would happen if we voted to Leave.
Correct - hence the big remain vote on the Rock. Spain will try it on but I suspect little will change there. It's actually the most godawful dump of a place to be fair - just an hour or so away are the beautiful and much cheaper jewels of Jerez and Cadiz!
La Linea and Algeciras nearby Gibraltar are real dumps though.
They are similar to Gibraltar except cheaper with better quality restaurants. Many local Spaniards from there would however be out of work if they could not go to their jobs in Gibraltar every day.
Comments
Given a set of issues that the Tories seem unable to fix (teacher recruitment, education, health care, immigration, trade talks , deficits ) talking about Brexit all the time gets news coverage and avoids dealing with the actual issues.
1. Mutual frustration
2. Impasse
3. Anger
4. Diamond Brexit (WTO and nothing else at all)
5. Regret
6. Elections
7. This is nuts
8. Can we talk?
9. Sure - wanna free trade deal?
10. OK
Much less than a decade from 1 to 10.
They may not have heard it directly from May and Hammond but they've had to listen to plenty from the likes of Farage and his chums out on the lunatic fringe of the Tory party.
I wonder what will happen on Brexit.
A mutually beneficial deal is doable, but the arseholes on both sides need overcoming. My main objection is the idea were the only ones with arseholes, advanced by some with the impression only we are capable of bring unreasonable.
The truth is much simpler. Spain always thought that EU membership on all three sides would make it easier to recapture the Rock through diplomatic means. They see this as their last roll of the dice. As they've said a few times, if this last push fails then their chance has gone forever.
One only has to look at Serbia and Ukraine to see that they can be fronted down or ignored and the are toothless to respond.
"Indeed, reducing the influence of Nato and the US is the aim for several EU members, especially France and Germany. And if we undercut Nato, that aim will succeed, leading to US retrenchment."
"A centralised army is an indispensable component of the superstate to which the EU is openly committed. It would also provide an excuse for struggling economies to slash defence budgets. Few nations take defence seriously enough to spend even the 2 per cent of GDP required by Nato, a shortcoming criticised by President Obama in Germany last month. An EU army will see these nations cut back even further, cynically pretending that defences are strengthened even as forces and capabilities are merged and downsized."
I read in Spiegel that Germany is preparing for the collapse of Nato - she has approached the UK to see if we will offer a nuclear umbrella to Europe after the US withdraws. TMay's suggestion that we might withdraw from European defence too didn't go down too well a few days ago, but it seems a certainty to me.
What if you don't reapply for a residency permit, even if you were born there?
Do they throw you off the top?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tItgGcWVHw
Mr. PAW, why would the Germans approach us and not the French for a nuclear umbrella?
Look at their response to rise of anti-EU sentiment on Holland,France, Italy, Greece...It isn't hmm perhaps we need to listen...No it's more ever closer EU needed and less powers for those countries. Too much EU is never the problem , the problems are too little EU.
I can't imagine the Irish are happy with that clause from Spain. Threatening sanctions (effectively) and one assumes playing administrative silly buggers with border crossings etc might have echoes elsewhere.
The Gibraltar stuff apart, Tusk's statement was pretty sensible and left enough wiggle room to do a reasonable deal.
You are shown 2 doors. Behind one is the French military and the other is the British military.
Which one do you ask to help you?
If the German's have asked for that, then Merkel needs to bitch slap Juncker etc into line.
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN07134
https://youtu.be/sRJby3PCfbo
Mr. T, quite. Our departure, as someone else posted here yesterday, removes the non-eurozone nations' QMV blocking minority, and means Germany has lost a major partner in fiscal sanity. Club Med is now relatively more powerful to a significant degree.
Gibraltar's position is threatened by Spain, with or without Brexit.
Me neither...
Isn't it a parody tweet?
Blair was no Sound Money kind of Thatcherite. We had two years of 'prudence for a purpose' and then he let Gordo rip. Top middle for him I think. Or maybe a bit lower.
Corbyn. Libertarian! He's a commie FFS! Middle left for Corbyn. Or higher. (Maybe alot higher).
They're not in opposite corners of the whole map, they're in opposite corners of the red quadrant.
And then you have to rush around a bit getting passport-sized photos etc! Technically it's an offence to be more than 6 months adrift.
Didn't Peter Hain come out with somesuch nonsense in the past?
One of my favourites was when Osborne did his last budget and said he was aiming to finish off the Lib Dems. What the press office say? We're not worried - he's missed all his other targets.
http://www.felix-monge.fr/table-d-architecte-à-volets.html
Mr. Brooke, I suspect they'd just give him back.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2090845/Tony-Blair-signed-secret-deal-Gibraltar-Spain.html
Even if Milne had the abilities, contacts and passion of Alistair Campbell in his prime - which he doesn't, to put it mildly - he would still be incapable of operating because he'd be undermined by his leader.
How often have we seen a Lab front-bencher undercut by the leader either spouting off in advance of agreeing a line, or riffing off-key after one's been agreed?
All too often the sequence would be:
9am media asked for Lab line on event;
9.20am Lab office responds;
10am morning news bulletin includes Lab line in coverage
11am Corbyn asked for view;
11.01am Corbyn gives view which contradicts line;
11.05am media contact Lab office seeking clarification
11.30am Lab office issues new statement seeking to paper over the cracks
11.40am Further queries from media as to why Lab has U-turned.
noon and subsequently: media leads story with 'Labour split'.
In any case, a competent media chief wouldn't stay in the Labour office because it would be too damaging to his/her reputation. Milne is the symptom, not the cause.
Nothing quite like watching the PB faithful round the campfire.....
'Someone's Laughing Lord, Kumbaya......'
The EU's behaviour shows that their negotiating position is much weaker than expected. Why use these stupid games, if they had real negotiating power?