Remember how Brexit was going to "destroy" Gibraltar and annihilate its economy?
Oh.
"Territory’s sense of relief as ‘existential threat’ alarm gives way to surging growth"
"Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.”"
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
There will be another vote, first of all on separation of Scotland. If that passes, then it will be a major wake-up call for the rest of the country, will it not?
Nah, it'll hit snooze go back to pushing up some z's for ten, slowly get up, make some tea, and get on with Brexit.
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
There will be another vote, first of all on separation of Scotland. If that passes, then it will be a major wake-up call for the rest of the country, will it not?
I doubt it, Mr. Glenn. I rather suspect that the majority opinion will be on the lines of "Shame, but if that is what they want they can piss-off". Expect the Royal Engineers with several hundred miles of razor wire to be deployed to the border soon after.
Britain Elects @britainelects 1m1 minute ago More Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result: LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7) CON: 32.9% (-26.7) GRN: 10.9% (-29.6) LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)
Who said the LibDem surge was over!
I make that a 38.2% wing!
It's not really meaningful to calculate a swing where one of the parties didn't stand yesterday. You might as well say that there was a 15% swing from Green to SNP.
Certainly the result was positive for the Lib Dems. However, it's a small ward which doesn't have a history of full major-party contests. I wouldn't read anything of national significance into it.
The thing of significance is that the last time a Lib Dem councillor was elected to West Somerset was 2007.
Remember how Brexit was going to "destroy" Gibraltar and annihilate its economy?
Oh.
"Territory’s sense of relief as ‘existential threat’ alarm gives way to surging growth"
"Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.”"
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years.
When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
lol.
7.5% growth
SEVEN POINT FIVE PERCENT
No matter how much flailing Remoaners go on about "we haven't triggered anything yet" blah blah blah you can't get around SEVEN POINT FIVE PERCENT GROWTH. Gibraltar is booming.
I didn't say it wasn't. After all, half the betting industry has moved there to avoid tax.
Remember how Brexit was going to "destroy" Gibraltar and annihilate its economy?
Oh.
"Territory’s sense of relief as ‘existential threat’ alarm gives way to surging growth"
"Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.”"
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years.
When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
Er, we were clearly and repeatedly told that merely voting to Leave would unleash chaos. I struggle to see how triggering Article 50 will do what the Leave vote didn't, but that excuse will shortly be invalid too.
Remember how Brexit was going to "destroy" Gibraltar and annihilate its economy?
Oh.
"Territory’s sense of relief as ‘existential threat’ alarm gives way to surging growth"
"Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.”"
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years.
When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
Er, we were clearly and repeatedly told that merely voting to Leave would unleash chaos. I struggle to see how triggering Article 50 will do what the Leave vote didn't, but that excuse will shortly be invalid too.
No, we were told that leaving would unleash chaos. We don't leave for another 2 years and there's still a not inconsiderable prospect that that will unleash chaos. Especially if Theresa's Brexit gameplan continues to be appeasement of the hard right.
Britain Elects @britainelects 1m1 minute ago More Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result: LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7) CON: 32.9% (-26.7) GRN: 10.9% (-29.6) LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)
Who said the LibDem surge was over!
I make that a 38.2% wing!
It's not really meaningful to calculate a swing where one of the parties didn't stand yesterday. You might as well say that there was a 15% swing from Green to SNP.
Certainly the result was positive for the Lib Dems. However, it's a small ward which doesn't have a history of full major-party contests. I wouldn't read anything of national significance into it.
In all these things the degree of significance you attach is directly linked to how much you like the result.
I'll put more confidence in the May elections, where we get a decent idea about how parties can campaign across large areas of the country at the same time, for first-tier authorities where it matters who wins and where most wards will be contested by all the main parties.
By-elections rarely change anything and both public and parties act accordingly in that knowledge.
Profs Rallings & Thrasher do quite well making May election projections based on local by-elections during the year. With 250+ data points they've got a reasonable amount to go on.
It will be interesting to see how well the by-elections translate. I'm not convinced they will for the Lib Dems, who look as if they're investing much more in by-elections than the other parties. They didn't gain all that much last year, possibly for similar reasons and while I'd expect a better outcome this time - national LD polling is a little better, for a start - I'm not anticipating anything like the storming results we're seeing from week to week.
The basic question is why LD by-election results are not being reflected in national polling (or vice versa). The elections in May can reflect only one at most of those other figures; polls or by-elections.
Precedent suggests there is a reasonable probability that people will see their local election vote as an opportunity to send some sort of message to national government. For local politicians, that's a sad thing, but it's there nevertheless.
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
There will be another vote, first of all on separation of Scotland. If that passes, then it will be a major wake-up call for the rest of the country, will it not?
There is a perfectly acceptable scenario that the people are given the final deal to vote on. Why should that be undemocratic ? If the people like [ the same people ], they can vote for it.
This time they will know for sure if £350m per week is winging its way to the NHS.
Last time , did they know that there was a divorce fee ?
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
Warzone is a bit overtop TFS you are spending to much time on here.They are turning you into your screen name
The thing of significance is that the last time a Lib Dem councillor was elected to West Somerset was 2007.
I accept full responsibility.
A decade ago Auchentennach Fine Pies undertook some "tastings" in West Somerset. The results failed to measure up to our exceptional comestible standards. However it would appear that in our efforts to achieve such gastronomic excellence we unwittingly must have, in marine terminology, fished out the area.
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
Warzone is a bit overtop TFS you are spending to much time on here.They are turning you into your screen name
Ok. It'd be jolly unpleasant. Is that restrained enough?
Britain Elects @britainelects 1m1 minute ago More Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result: LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7) CON: 32.9% (-26.7) GRN: 10.9% (-29.6) LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)
Who said the LibDem surge was over!
I make that a 38.2% wing!
It's not really meaningful to calculate a swing where one of the parties didn't stand yesterday. You might as well say that there was a 15% swing from Green to SNP.
Certainly the result was positive for the Lib Dems. However, it's a small ward which doesn't have a history of full major-party contests. I wouldn't read anything of national significance into it.
In all these things the degree of significance you attach is directly linked to how much you like the result.
I'll put more confidence in the May elections, where we get a decent idea about how parties can campaign across large areas of the country at the same time, for first-tier authorities where it matters who wins and where most wards will be contested by all the main parties.
By-elections rarely change anything and both public and parties act accordingly in that knowledge.
Profs Rallings & Thrasher do quite well making May election projections based on local by-elections during the year. With 250+ data points they've got a reasonable amount to go on.
It will be interesting to see how well the by-elections translate. I'm not convinced they will for the Lib Dems, who look as if they're investing much more in by-elections than the other parties. They didn't gain all that much last year, possibly for similar reasons and while I'd expect a better outcome this time - national LD polling is a little better, for a start - I'm not anticipating anything like the storming results we're seeing from week to week.
The basic question is why LD by-election results are not being reflected in national polling (or vice versa). The elections in May can reflect only one at most of those other figures; polls or by-elections.
Precedent suggests there is a reasonable probability that people will see their local election vote as an opportunity to send some sort of message to national government. For local politicians, that's a sad thing, but it's there nevertheless.
The other reason is that they're more than happy to punish their local representatives for cutting services whilst continuing to vote for national representatives who will sustain the national policies that drive the cuts.
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years. When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
Er, we were clearly and repeatedly told that merely voting to Leave would unleash chaos. I struggle to see how triggering Article 50 will do what the Leave vote didn't, but that excuse will shortly be invalid too.
The threat of immediate chaos was, surely, the brainchild of the Conservative politicians who headed the Remain campaign, wasn`t it? They over-egged the pudding, of course, as Conservative politicians always do, which is why nobody believes them. The Conservatives are a tarnished brand.
Don't you find that buying books in Waterstones is a pain. You find the one you came for and then because there is a "buy 1 get 1 half price" offer you spend half an hour trying to find a second one. Ended up with the Fire Child by S K Tremaine.......
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years. When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
Er, we were clearly and repeatedly told that merely voting to Leave would unleash chaos. I struggle to see how triggering Article 50 will do what the Leave vote didn't, but that excuse will shortly be invalid too.
The threat of immediate chaos was, surely, the brainchild of the Conservative politicians who headed the Remain campaign, wasn`t it? They over-egged the pudding, of course, as Conservative politicians always do, which is why nobody believes them. The Conservatives are a tarnished brand.
I'd say all current political parties are tarnished. Some might buff up again, and some won't. People still vote for them.
It's a daft "charge" to lay at the door of the Brexiteers anyway as a German dominated Europe was always going to happen when they all signed up to the Euro.
Don't you find that buying books in Waterstones is a pain. You find the one you came for and then because there is a "buy 1 get 1 half price" offer you spend half an hour trying to find a second one. Ended up with the Fire Child by S K Tremaine.......
What other book did you purchase at full price for 99p ?
Remember how Brexit was going to "destroy" Gibraltar and annihilate its economy?
Oh.
"Territory’s sense of relief as ‘existential threat’ alarm gives way to surging growth"
"Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.”"
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years.
When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
Er, we were clearly and repeatedly told that merely voting to Leave would unleash chaos. I struggle to see how triggering Article 50 will do what the Leave vote didn't, but that excuse will shortly be invalid too.
No, we were told that leaving would unleash chaos. We don't leave for another 2 years and there's still a not inconsiderable prospect that that will unleash chaos. Especially if Theresa's Brexit gameplan continues to be appeasement of the hard right.
No, we were told by some that simply voting Leave would unleash chaos (it hasn't) and we were told by others that triggering A50 would unleash chaos (are you expecting chaos next week?)
No! This car crash will be slow and drawn out, and the scale of casualties will correspond to the hardness of Brexit.
Don't you find that buying books in Waterstones is a pain. You find the one you came for and then because there is a "buy 1 get 1 half price" offer you spend half an hour trying to find a second one.
I love that! I have got some great books that way.
Remember how Brexit was going to "destroy" Gibraltar and annihilate its economy?
Oh.
"Territory’s sense of relief as ‘existential threat’ alarm gives way to surging growth"
"Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.”"
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years.
When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
Er, we were clearly and repeatedly told that merely voting to Leave would unleash chaos. I struggle to see how triggering Article 50 will do what the Leave vote didn't, but that excuse will shortly be invalid too.
No, we were told that leaving would unleash chaos. We don't leave for another 2 years and there's still a not inconsiderable prospect that that will unleash chaos. Especially if Theresa's Brexit gameplan continues to be appeasement of the hard right.
Not quite true there, Mr. Monksfield. George Osborne said that if we voted out he would have to introduce a special budget with all sorts of drastic cuts and interest rates would have to shoot up. Well that didn't need to happen. Ah, but those predictions were based on Article 50 being triggered, well it is going to be next week. So will Mr. Hammond be rushing back to the Commons with an emergency budget? I doubt it somehow.
The list of major companies that have announced big investment plans in the UK since the Referendum rather suggests that the people with real money who make real decisions are quite comfortable with the direction HMG is taking us.
I'd say all current political parties are tarnished. Some might buff up again, and some won't. People still vote for them.
Who else do we have?
That's my point. PClipp continually says the Tories are dead. But they still get voted for. Same as Labour. Whoever you vote for, the bloody government get it!
Just had a look at the Newbury hunter chase. Ben Ridley made no attempt to get his mount going and he must have heard the other runners approaching.
Two thoughts - perhaps the horse had a problem and Ridley couldn't ask him for more effort or Ridley was exhausted and couldn't do any more to help the horse. If the former and the course vet confirms the horse had a problem, Ridley will be exonerated and rightly so. If the latter,
Either way, far too blatant to be malevolent and the horse was 33/1 so I imagine more punters benefited than lost out though I imagine the bookies and connections weren't too happy.
Remember how Brexit was going to "destroy" Gibraltar and annihilate its economy?
Oh.
"Territory’s sense of relief as ‘existential threat’ alarm gives way to surging growth"
"Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.”"
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years.
When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
Er, we were clearly and repeatedly told that merely voting to Leave would unleash chaos. I struggle to see how triggering Article 50 will do what the Leave vote didn't, but that excuse will shortly be invalid too.
No, we were told that leaving would unleash chaos. We don't leave for another 2 years and there's still a not inconsiderable prospect that that will unleash chaos. Especially if Theresa's Brexit gameplan continues to be appeasement of the hard right.
No, we were told by some that simply voting Leave would unleash chaos (it hasn't) and we were told by others that triggering A50 would unleash chaos (are you expecting chaos next week?)
No! This car crash will be slow and drawn out, and the scale of casualties will correspond to the hardness of Brexit.
Remember how Brexit was going to "destroy" Gibraltar and annihilate its economy?
Oh.
"Territory’s sense of relief as ‘existential threat’ alarm gives way to surging growth"
"Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.”"
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years.
When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
Er, we were clearly and repeatedly told that merely voting to Leave would unleash chaos. I struggle to see how triggering Article 50 will do what the Leave vote didn't, but that excuse will shortly be invalid too.
No, we were told that leaving would unleash chaos. We don't leave for another 2 years and there's still a not inconsiderable prospect that that will unleash chaos. Especially if Theresa's Brexit gameplan continues to be appeasement of the hard right.
No, we were told by some that simply voting Leave would unleash chaos (it hasn't) and we were told by others that triggering A50 would unleash chaos (are you expecting chaos next week?)
No! This car crash will be slow and drawn out, and the scale of casualties will correspond to the hardness of Brexit.
What's the timescale, and what does the apocalypse look like? I'm genuinely interested. You post here with such certainty, as do others, and some leavers as well. I don't have a clue, but I feel it will be neither as good, nor as bad as people seem to want.
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
Warzone is a bit overtop TFS you are spending to much time on here.They are turning you into your screen name
Ok. It'd be jolly unpleasant. Is that restrained enough?
Yes sounds more like the usual UK situation most people though would shrug their shoulders and get on with their life.There will not be a revolution or warzone over the EU.
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
Warzone is a bit overtop TFS you are spending to much time on here.They are turning you into your screen name
Ok. It'd be jolly unpleasant. Is that restrained enough?
Yes sounds more like the usual UK situation most people though would shrug their shoulders and get on with their life.There will not be a revolution or warzone over the EU.
Not even the tinsiest bit of window smashing and shouting?
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
Warzone is a bit overtop TFS you are spending to much time on here.They are turning you into your screen name
Ok. It'd be jolly unpleasant. Is that restrained enough?
Yes sounds more like the usual UK situation most people though would shrug their shoulders and get on with their life.There will not be a revolution or warzone over the EU.
I doubt there would be a revolution over the departure of Scotland or N Ireland either.
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
Warzone is a bit overtop TFS you are spending to much time on here.They are turning you into your screen name
Ok. It'd be jolly unpleasant. Is that restrained enough?
Yes sounds more like the usual UK situation most people though would shrug their shoulders and get on with their life.There will not be a revolution or warzone over the EU.
I doubt there would be a revolution over the departure of Scotland or N Ireland either.
You genuinely don't think that the referendum just being overturned without a vote wouldn't cause trouble?
I'd say all current political parties are tarnished. Some might buff up again, and some won't. People still vote for them.
Who else do we have?
That's my point. PClipp continually says the Tories are dead. But they still get voted for. Same as Labour. Whoever you vote for, the bloody government get it!
The Tories are not dead yet. I think how well they survive will depend on the final form of Brexit and a soft Brexit or 10 year intermediate deal could cause big divisions.
Labour is busy contemplating its navel. If it can get rid of Corbyn and do a Kinnock style purge I think it will recover substantially (but enough to win) before 2020.
I have no idea about the Lib Dems. The SNP and Ulster parties are irrelevant simply because they can never get more than a few dozen seats even on a 100% turnout.
We have a default govt simply because no one else is electable.
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
Warzone is a bit overtop TFS you are spending to much time on here.They are turning you into your screen name
Ok. It'd be jolly unpleasant. Is that restrained enough?
Yes sounds more like the usual UK situation most people though would shrug their shoulders and get on with their life.There will not be a revolution or warzone over the EU.
Not even the tinsiest bit of window smashing and shouting?
Yes possibly at the extremes but hard to see the over forties who care so much rioting they would be frightened of their jobs.
Remember how Brexit was going to "destroy" Gibraltar and annihilate its economy?
Oh.
"Territory’s sense of relief as ‘existential threat’ alarm gives way to surging growth"
"Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.”"
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years.
When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
Er, we were clearly and repeatedly told that merely voting to Leave would unleash chaos. I struggle to see how triggering Article 50 will do what the Leave vote didn't, but that excuse will shortly be invalid too.
No, we were told that leaving would unleash chaos. We don't leave for another 2 years and there's still a not inconsiderable prospect that that will unleash chaos. Especially if Theresa's Brexit gameplan continues to be appeasement of the hard right.
No, we were told by some that simply voting Leave would unleash chaos (it hasn't) and we were told by others that triggering A50 would unleash chaos (are you expecting chaos next week?)
No! This car crash will be slow and drawn out, and the scale of casualties will correspond to the hardness of Brexit.
"He said the numbers involved were “in the hundreds of people as opposed to anything much greater than that” and would also involve hiring people in the remaining 27 EU countries ."
So they're going to move a few hundred people, possibly, and it will be done slowly over years.
The City makes hundreds of new jobs every day.
I've no doubt Brexit will dent London as a financial centre, but it ain't gonna be the apocalypse some predicted (hoped?), and London has a history of bouncing back very quickly, anyway
Av GS staffer earns >£300k - many of new jobs in the 27 would've been new City jobs !!
On the possible outcomes of Brexit, this is interesting, too. The rich now think Brexit will be good for the UK economy, long term.
"UBS found that 83% of millionaires aged 18 to 34 thought Brexit would have a positive impact on their long-term financial planning. This compared with 70% of 35- to 44-year-olds feeling positive about the impact of Brexit on their finances, and 74% of over-64-year-olds.
According to polling data from YouGov, 75% of 18- to 24-year-olds voted to remain in the EU.
Three-quarters of the millionaires surveyed by UBS said they thought Brexit would have a positive impact on the overall UK economy in the long term, despite the collapse in the value of the pound since the referendum and concerns that it may be more difficult for the UK to trade goods and service after it leaves the EU."
You genuinely don't think that the referendum just being overturned without a vote wouldn't cause trouble?
I think most people simply do not care. This place (PB) is unusual compared to the general population. I think it would also depend on the reason for it being overturned. If, during the A50 period we were haemorrhaging 50,000 jobs a month to Europe I think the overturning may be welcomed.
If it is overturning for no discernible reason then I would expect some civil unrest but no civil war
If there is to be referendum on the final deal should voters have to prove they've read all 500 pages of the deal before they are allowed in to the voting booth?
You are probably correct, but the ECJ has yet to rule on the reversibility of A50
This isn't a threat or in any way a "suck it up losers!" post, but I'd be genuinely fearful of civil unrest on a wide scale if A50 gets overturned. It'd be carnage. I think Brexit has to happen now, for the good of the country. By all means have a party that wants to go back in and campaign on that, but if you think the country is divided now, it'd be a warzone if the referendum got overturned without another vote.
Warzone is a bit overtop TFS you are spending to much time on here.They are turning you into your screen name
Ok. It'd be jolly unpleasant. Is that restrained enough?
Yes sounds more like the usual UK situation most people though would shrug their shoulders and get on with their life.There will not be a revolution or warzone over the EU.
I doubt there would be a revolution over the departure of Scotland or N Ireland either.
You genuinely don't think that the referendum just being overturned without a vote wouldn't cause trouble?
I think it would cause an immense hoo-ha. I very much doubt it would cause trouble on the streets though. However, the party or parties that had conspired to such a result may expect a significant hit at the ballot box, which probably for the politicians is even worse (they can ignore rioting, they cannot ignore being voted out of office).
However, Mr. Stopper, we are into the realms of make believe. The UK is leaving the EU, the PM has set out the framework of the deal that she wants (and, I think, will mostly get) the rest is a bunch of people jerking-off in their sad fantasies.
On how the Brexit negotiations might pan out, the most encouraging article I've seen recently is this one, which seems to have gone entirely unnoticed:
I've no doubt Brexit will dent London as a financial centre, but it ain't gonna be the apocalypse some predicted (hoped?), and London has a history of bouncing back very quickly, anyway
The deal for the new Deutsche Bank London HQ was sealed recently, which they won't even move into until 2023.
I'd say all current political parties are tarnished. Some might buff up again, and some won't. People still vote for them.
Who else do we have?
That's my point. PClipp continually says the Tories are dead. But they still get voted for. Same as Labour. Whoever you vote for, the bloody government get it!
Voting Tory over Labour made an absolute difference to the future of this country in 2015.
The system works when the major parties respond to public pressure for change, but not if they collectively ignore it.
Damn it. I'm away for a short time and Mr. Royale gets in the historical reference before me.
Oh well.
Mr. Topping, I'm distinctly not a millionaire. Presumably my opinion gets weighted up, if Mr. T's gets weighted down for his vile conduct in being financially successful?
On how the Brexit negotiations might pan out, the most encouraging article I've seen recently is this one, which seems to have gone entirely unnoticed:
Remember how Brexit was going to "destroy" Gibraltar and annihilate its economy?
Oh.
"Territory’s sense of relief as ‘existential threat’ alarm gives way to surging growth"
"Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.”"
Er, we haven't left yet so the consequences haven't manifested, and indeed won't for several years.
When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
Er, we were clearly and repeatedly told that merely voting to Leave would unleash chaos. I struggle to see how triggering Article 50 will do what the Leave vote didn't, but that excuse will shortly be invalid too.
No, we were told that leaving would unleash chaos. We don't leave for another 2 years and there's still a not inconsiderable prospect that that will unleash chaos. Especially if Theresa's Brexit gameplan continues to be appeasement of the hard right.
The written words of Cameron and Osborne:
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more.
Under all scenarios the economy shrinks, the value of the pound falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, wages are hit, and as a result - government borrowing goes up. '
Take a look at the PB threads in the week after the Referendum where we were treated to endless tweets about every fall in share prices and speculation that a bank is going to relocate from London.
On how the Brexit negotiations might pan out, the most encouraging article I've seen recently is this one, which seems to have gone entirely unnoticed:
Equivalence is a point in time. Let's say 29 March 2019. And it doesn't apply to several sectors in financial services. But leave that aside, what we end up with is the ECB having to review periodically our rules & regs to ensure that we are compliant with prevailing EU financial services regs. I'm sure some will see that as a taking back control but it is a sub-par EEA situation and we would just be passengers on the ECB EU regs train.
Not to say it might not be the best of a bad job, just that people ought to be aware of who would be driving the train.
Damn it. I'm away for a short time and Mr. Royale gets in the historical reference before me.
Oh well.
Mr. Topping, I'm distinctly not a millionaire. Presumably my opinion gets weighted up, if Mr. T's gets weighted down for his vile conduct in being financially successful?
Sadly Morris your opinion doesn't get weighted up because having voted to overturn the prevailing order and cock a snook at the establishment, it will be the less well off leavers that find themselves still disadvantaged, and still in thrall to the establishment, the millionaires, the elite, etc.
I think it will go down like a lead balloon for her.
Those already voting for Le Pen won't care, Macron voters will care but won't vote for her anyway. In terms of the runoff some Fillon voters may be put off but then again some Hamon and Melenchon voters are likely to have a soft spot for Putin
Equivalence is a point in time. Let's say 29 March 2019. And it doesn't apply to several sectors in financial services. But leave that aside, what we end up with is the ECB having to review periodically our rules & regs to ensure that we are compliant with prevailing EU financial services regs. I'm sure some will see that as a taking back control but it is a sub-par EEA situation and we would just be passengers on the ECB EU regs train.
Not to say it might not be the best of a bad job, just that people ought to be aware of who would be driving the train.
All that is true, but to me the most important thing about that article wasn't the detail of how it might work, but the recognition - at least in Holland - that it's very much in the EU27's own interests to make it work.
Equivalence is a point in time. Let's say 29 March 2019. And it doesn't apply to several sectors in financial services. But leave that aside, what we end up with is the ECB having to review periodically our rules & regs to ensure that we are compliant with prevailing EU financial services regs. I'm sure some will see that as a taking back control but it is a sub-par EEA situation and we would just be passengers on the ECB EU regs train.
Not to say it might not be the best of a bad job, just that people ought to be aware of who would be driving the train.
All that is true, but to me the most important thing about that article wasn't the detail of how it might work, but the recognition - at least in Holland - that it's very much in the EU27's own interests to make it work.
Yes that's true. I think it's in everyone's interest to make it work. And he's right - upon leaving we would be 100% equivalent but from then on we would be subject to continued review (in practice I'm sure this would not be so onerous).
But for people who voted Leave to take back control my exasperation is that we have handed back absolute control to the EU27 on financial services. Perhaps that's what they wanted and in any case it's a price worth paying but it really is a palm to forehead moment.
... But for people who voted Leave to take back control my exasperation is that we have handed back absolute control to the EU27 on financial services. Perhaps that's what they wanted and in any case it's a price worth paying but it really is a palm to forehead moment.
Well, some of us pointed that out before the referendum - I seem to recall some excellent posts by your good self on the subject.
More generally, I'm moderately confident that the City won't be too badly damaged - it's looking as though the worst-case scenarios aren't going to happen (fingers crossed). I'm much more worried about the car industry.
On the possible outcomes of Brexit, this is interesting, too. The rich now think Brexit will be good for the UK economy, long term.
"UBS found that 83% of millionaires aged 18 to 34 thought Brexit would have a positive impact on their long-term financial planning. This compared with 70% of 35- to 44-year-olds feeling positive about the impact of Brexit on their finances, and 74% of over-64-year-olds.
According to polling data from YouGov, 75% of 18- to 24-year-olds voted to remain in the EU.
Three-quarters of the millionaires surveyed by UBS said they thought Brexit would have a positive impact on the overall UK economy in the long term, despite the collapse in the value of the pound since the referendum and concerns that it may be more difficult for the UK to trade goods and service after it leaves the EU."
Given they only polled those with at least $1 million worth of liquid assets excluding their homes whether Brexit is a success or failure doesn't matter to them, if it is that is a bonus and if it isn't they can just move to New York or Paris
Apologies for not being able to remember who it was, but when discussing the upcoming Motogp season someone suggested that Jorge Lorenzo always beats his teammate. Well, Jorge has not had a good start to the season by missing out on the Top 10 in FP2 which means he has to go through Quali 1 tomorrow. His teammate, Andrea Dovizioso made it safely through.
Early days, but I'd suggest it will be a long season for Jorge while Mark Marquez and Maverick Vinales battle for the tittle.
... But for people who voted Leave to take back control my exasperation is that we have handed back absolute control to the EU27 on financial services. Perhaps that's what they wanted and in any case it's a price worth paying but it really is a palm to forehead moment.
Well, some of us pointed that out before the referendum - I seem to recall some excellent posts by your good self on the subject.
More generally, I'm moderately confident that the City won't be too badly damaged - it's looking as though the worst-case scenarios aren't going to happen (fingers crossed). I'm much more worried about the car industry.
Kind of you to say and yes we shall see.
Meanwhile, on topic for PB. Please tell me it was a PB contributor I saw yesterday on the tube reading a thick, dusty tome entitled: The Railways - Nation, Network and People. Please tell me it was...
Discussing a health bill without a female in the room. Not even making tea.
I'm not in the least bit surprised.
Recently, I got an invite to a Women's Day Event organized by a well known law firm. They had a panel to discuss issues relating to women: the panel consisted of 1 man and 3 women. So far, so good.
But.
The man was a neuroscientist. The three women were women who had set up companies making ethnically sourced baby clothes, clothes for professional women and an internet cleaning company.
When I pointed out that women succeeded in and were interested in matters others than babies, clothes and cleaning there was some clearing of throats and apologetic explanations.
Next year - if they have any sense - they'll have as a speaker a professional woman who's made a success in an overwhelmingly male environment, for instance.
It just shows (again) how far Trump is away from being any kind of conventional politician and how plain weird American Republicans are as a set (or sect, take your pick). I find it remarkable that no one thought, you know, the optics of this are not going to be optimal. I also find it remarkable that such a party is not even further behind with women than they currently are.
Bloody hell, even (some) conservatives on PB think the GOP are well....odd. I saw the story earlier today, but didn't think that my thoughts on it would gain much agreement on this site, so I decided it wasn't worth posting. Glad to see I wasn't the only one who thought that the GOP should have had women in the room discussing healthcare.
On how the Brexit negotiations might pan out, the most encouraging article I've seen recently is this one, which seems to have gone entirely unnoticed:
... But for people who voted Leave to take back control my exasperation is that we have handed back absolute control to the EU27 on financial services. Perhaps that's what they wanted and in any case it's a price worth paying but it really is a palm to forehead moment.
Well, some of us pointed that out before the referendum - I seem to recall some excellent posts by your good self on the subject.
More generally, I'm moderately confident that the City won't be too badly damaged - it's looking as though the worst-case scenarios aren't going to happen (fingers crossed). I'm much more worried about the car industry.
Kind of you to say and yes we shall see.
Meanwhile, on topic for PB. Please tell me it was a PB contributor I saw yesterday on the tube reading a thick, dusty tome entitled: The Railways - Nation, Network and People. Please tell me it was...
I'm not sure that the US Constitution has worked very well, because it (like the European one) fudged the federal/confederal choices, to the point that you could say that a 6-year civil war was fought over how to interpret it. It is still fundmaentally broken, in that (a) it's undemocratic, giving small states disproportionate Senate representation and electoral college representation (which is why Clinton got a popular majority and Trump got an EC majority) (b) it delegates the fixing of bouyndaries to partisan local bodies who routinely gerrymander (c) the separation of powers only works to the extent of preventing bad things from happening, but builds in deadlocks which make it difficult to progress in any direction, as Trump is now finding despite a majority in both Houses
I agree that these fundamntal issues need to be thought through. A problem in Europe has been tat the people who set up the system did intend it to evolve federally, but the big country governments really don't want to lose their power, so the Parliament is sidelined by the Council at every opportunity. A decision to be federal or not is relaly needed to avoid endless fudges.
----
(a) and (c) are features not bugs. The framers wanted to stop autocracy and wanted to make sure that even small states got equal representation. Both are good things.
The idea that US democracy is fundamentally broken is a curious one, mind.
And I thought that the Lisbon Treaty was not meant to be a constitution. Or is it only one when it is used to show how much better it is than the US one?
(a) Is a feature or more accurately a necessary compromise to get the Constitution passed. People who criticise the EU for being a talking shop unlike the more decisive Americans don't realise it took ten years of argument and deadlock before a number of delegates thought they needed to take thing by the horns because it was getting embarrassing.
(c) Is a feature that presumes a good-will for a compromise satisfactory to everyone. In practice it's a recipe for deadlock, as we have seen in the past several decades.
Just received the Leave.EU weekly missive. Arron Banks' divorce from UKIP seems complete.
He says: "I count my blessings that we are leaving the European Union every day, but the country still faces serious problems that successive governments have not only failed to address, but aggravated: mass immigration, housing, income inequality and security to name but a few.
These challenges will continue to be unsolved until a united force in British politics emerges equipped with a vision of how our country should be run. UKIP may yet become that force, and I wish them well. But I am in no mood to wait, which is why we have decided to launch a new movement, The Patriotic Alliance."
Pity that the name Patriotic Alliance is shared with a South African party whose founder is a convicted bank robber.
Britain Elects @britainelects 1m1 minute ago More Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result: LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7) CON: 32.9% (-26.7) GRN: 10.9% (-29.6) LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)
Who said the LibDem surge was over!
I make that a 38.2% wing!
It's not really meaningful to calculate a swing where one of the parties didn't stand yesterday. You might as well say that there was a 15% swing from Green to SNP.
Certainly the result was positive for the Lib Dems. However, it's a small ward which doesn't have a history of full major-party contests. I wouldn't read anything of national significance into it.
The thing of significance is that the last time a Lib Dem councillor was elected to West Somerset was 2007.
Comments
When will Brexit Pollyannas get this?
48% of PB said pass - REMAIN
Sorry ....
This time they will know for sure if £350m per week is winging its way to the NHS.
Last time , did they know that there was a divorce fee ?
A decade ago Auchentennach Fine Pies undertook some "tastings" in West Somerset. The results failed to measure up to our exceptional comestible standards. However it would appear that in our efforts to achieve such gastronomic excellence we unwittingly must have, in marine terminology, fished out the area.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5STLUQqGtU
Is it too late for a second referendum ?
The list of major companies that have announced big investment plans in the UK since the Referendum rather suggests that the people with real money who make real decisions are quite comfortable with the direction HMG is taking us.
Just had a look at the Newbury hunter chase. Ben Ridley made no attempt to get his mount going and he must have heard the other runners approaching.
Two thoughts - perhaps the horse had a problem and Ridley couldn't ask him for more effort or Ridley was exhausted and couldn't do any more to help the horse. If the former and the course vet confirms the horse had a problem, Ridley will be exonerated and rightly so. If the latter,
Either way, far too blatant to be malevolent and the horse was 33/1 so I imagine more punters benefited than lost out though I imagine the bookies and connections weren't too happy.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/21/goldman-sachs-staff-london-brexit-frankfurt-paris
Labour is busy contemplating its navel. If it can get rid of Corbyn and do a Kinnock style purge I think it will recover substantially (but enough to win) before 2020.
I have no idea about the Lib Dems. The SNP and Ulster parties are irrelevant simply because they can never get more than a few dozen seats even on a 100% turnout.
We have a default govt simply because no one else is electable.
Let me guess you think Brexit will be good for the UK also. And you are a millionaire.
Too funny.
If it is overturning for no discernible reason then I would expect some civil unrest but no civil war
However, Mr. Stopper, we are into the realms of make believe. The UK is leaving the EU, the PM has set out the framework of the deal that she wants (and, I think, will mostly get) the rest is a bunch of people jerking-off in their sad fantasies.
http://www.cityam.com/261598/dutch-government-commissioned-report-has-stressed
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/23/deutsche-bank-commits-london-securing-new-hq/
The system works when the major parties respond to public pressure for change, but not if they collectively ignore it.
Oh well.
Mr. Topping, I'm distinctly not a millionaire. Presumably my opinion gets weighted up, if Mr. T's gets weighted down for his vile conduct in being financially successful?
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more.
Under all scenarios the economy shrinks, the value of the pound falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, wages are hit, and as a result - government borrowing goes up. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/
Take a look at the PB threads in the week after the Referendum where we were treated to endless tweets about every fall in share prices and speculation that a bank is going to relocate from London.
There was no "We haven't left yet" excuses then.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/page/2/
Not to say it might not be the best of a bad job, just that people ought to be aware of who would be driving the train.
But for people who voted Leave to take back control my exasperation is that we have handed back absolute control to the EU27 on financial services. Perhaps that's what they wanted and in any case it's a price worth paying but it really is a palm to forehead moment.
That photo should be printed and sent to every house east of the Bann if we have a second referendum.
More generally, I'm moderately confident that the City won't be too badly damaged - it's looking as though the worst-case scenarios aren't going to happen (fingers crossed). I'm much more worried about the car industry.
Early days, but I'd suggest it will be a long season for Jorge while Mark Marquez and Maverick Vinales battle for the tittle.
Meanwhile, on topic for PB. Please tell me it was a PB contributor I saw yesterday on the tube reading a thick, dusty tome entitled: The Railways - Nation, Network and People. Please tell me it was...
http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/theresa-may-is-britains-first-catholic-prime-minister-says-michael-gove/
https://www.ft.com/content/61221dd4-d8c4-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e
Gove: Not worth publishing...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/27/theresa-may-says-christian-faith-helps-make-difficult-decisions/
(c) Is a feature that presumes a good-will for a compromise satisfactory to everyone. In practice it's a recipe for deadlock, as we have seen in the past several decades.
He says: "I count my blessings that we are leaving the European Union every day, but the country still faces serious problems that successive governments have not only failed to address, but aggravated: mass immigration, housing, income inequality and security to name but a few.
These challenges will continue to be unsolved until a united force in British politics emerges equipped with a vision of how our country should be run. UKIP may yet become that force, and I wish them well. But I am in no mood to wait, which is why we have decided to launch a new movement, The Patriotic Alliance."
Pity that the name Patriotic Alliance is shared with a South African party whose founder is a convicted bank robber.