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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: London, Second Referendum(s),

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  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,027
    edited March 2017
    Higher Croft (Blackburn) result:
    LAB: 58.2% (+12.1)
    UKIP: 25.0% (-8.3)
    CON: 16.7% (-3.8)

    Lab increased their share.

    Good night all.

    EDIT Sorry. That was last December! It's late.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Don’t go, dugarbandier, your posts are much appreciated.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,027
    edited March 2017
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    Election declared null and void! Hmm?

    "Declared null and void POST-count as the Labour candidate 'was ineligible to stand for election because of his employment status'."
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 5s5 seconds ago
    More
    Declared null and void POST-count as the Labour candidate 'was ineligible to stand for election because of his employment status'.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    nunu said:

    For every person innocent person killed in the west by islamist terror many more innocent mideasterners have been killed by western governments. That is just a uncomfortable truth most posters on here have not/will not admit to because it is uncomfortable.

    A large number of Muslims have been killed by their fellow Muslims, eg. Iran-Iraq War back in the 1980s (8 years long!), and IS car bombs in Iraq right up to the present day.
    Indeed. It is a well established tradition that many religions kill many of their own followers. The results from schisms such as protestant/catholic or sunni/shia, not to mention apostasy, heresy and witchcraft are well documented.

    It is past my bedtime. Goodnight!
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    I do hope that 1) the Tweet about the Blackburn result being invalid is true, and 2) that Ms Moonbeam QC is still up to appreciate it.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2017
    Godfrey Elfwick is hilarious on Twitter.

    https://twitter.com/godfreyelfwick
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    My election law is very rusty now, and many years out of date, but I don't think that Returning Officers have the power to declare a result null and void - after the polls have closed, I think it's a job for m'learned friends (and many of them.)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,728

    Don’t go, dugarbandier, your posts are much appreciated.

    "He'll be back!" :)
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    I do hope that 1) the Tweet about the Blackburn result being invalid is true, and 2) that Ms Moonbeam QC is still up to appreciate it.

    Oh dearie, dearie, dearie me. They're USELESS, aren't they?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,728
    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    For every person innocent person killed in the west by islamist terror many more innocent mideasterners have been killed by western governments. That is just a uncomfortable truth most posters on here have not/will not admit to because it is uncomfortable.

    A large number of Muslims have been killed by their fellow Muslims, eg. Iran-Iraq War back in the 1980s (8 years long!), and IS car bombs in Iraq right up to the present day.
    I am pretty sure the Iraq-Iran war (i.e. a proxy for Shia v Sunni) killed way more Muslims (by Muslims) than anything the West has done, ever

    Approximately 1.5 million died in that war. Now, I've become a harsh and humbled critic of most western intervention in the MENA, but I don't believe we killed anything like that number of Muslims

    For historical context, it is estimated that the great Islamic expansion and conquest of north Africa, Arabia, near Asia and Europe in the 7th-10th centuries killed, proportionately, more people (i.e. non Muslims) than any other geopolitical event in human history
    Is it true that Mohammed was the world's first Islamist?
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    Blackburn Lab candidate was apparently employed by Growth Lancashire, quango part owned by the Council.

    Election appears to have been invalidated.

    600,000 members, none of whom could be arsed to vet the candidate *slow hand clap*
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    For every person innocent person killed in the west by islamist terror many more innocent mideasterners have been killed by western governments. That is just a uncomfortable truth most posters on here have not/will not admit to because it is uncomfortable.

    A large number of Muslims have been killed by their fellow Muslims, eg. Iran-Iraq War back in the 1980s (8 years long!), and IS car bombs in Iraq right up to the present day.
    I am pretty sure the Iraq-Iran war (i.e. a proxy for Shia v Sunni) killed way more Muslims (by Muslims) than anything the West has done, ever

    Approximately 1.5 million died in that war. Now, I've become a harsh and humbled critic of most western intervention in the MENA, but I don't believe we killed anything like that number of Muslims
    Millions died in the Bengal famine during WW2 as a result of the British decision knowingly to withhold grain.

    Nunu is right.

    It's true that the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88 was largely Shia versus Sunni, but it wasn't a "proxy" for the opposition between those religious denominations, given factors such as US and Soviet support for Iraq, Israeli and Syrian support for Iran, the supply of weapons by Britain to both sides, etc.

    Another point: things are scary in London, Paris, and other western European cities, for sure, and a few hundred people have been murdered in terror attacks, but they aren't half as scary as they are in countries such as Tunisia and Libya where Daesh already control territory, and where in some towns (such as Ben Guerdane) it could be "Good morning, you are now living in the caliphate; 20 of your neighbours demurred and you can see their heads on posts - any questions?" at the drop of a hat.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,586
    edited March 2017
    Sorry have some questions to answer...

    Masood spent four years working in the Middle East before returning to the UK and taking a teaching post in Luton, Bedfordshire, it is claimed. In 2012, he set up his own business in the West Midlands, a tutoring business.

    All those CRB checks etc, despite having stabbed somebody in the face, allowed him to get a teaching post. Or somebody turned a blind eye / didn't carry them out.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,951
    Cyan said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    For every person innocent person killed in the west by islamist terror many more innocent mideasterners have been killed by western governments. That is just a uncomfortable truth most posters on here have not/will not admit to because it is uncomfortable.

    A large number of Muslims have been killed by their fellow Muslims, eg. Iran-Iraq War back in the 1980s (8 years long!), and IS car bombs in Iraq right up to the present day.
    I am pretty sure the Iraq-Iran war (i.e. a proxy for Shia v Sunni) killed way more Muslims (by Muslims) than anything the West has done, ever

    Approximately 1.5 million died in that war. Now, I've become a harsh and humbled critic of most western intervention in the MENA, but I don't believe we killed anything like that number of Muslims
    Millions died in the Bengal famine during WW2 as a result of the British decision knowingly to withhold grain.
    I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that......
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,586
    Apparently the terrorist broke into Parliament as gates opened for a car carrying the Metropolitan Police’s Acting Commissioner.

    PC Keith Palmer and another unarmed colleague challenged him — while armed colleagues supposed to be behind them were apparently elsewhere.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,586
    Andrew Neil was even more forthright in his introduction of BBC One's This Week programme as he delivered a defiant message to all would-be terrorists.

    Speaking straight to camera, he said: "Do you have any idea who you are dealing with?

    "This is the country that stood up alone to the might of the Luftwaffe, air force of the greatest evil mankind has ever known.

    "If you think we are now going to be cowed by some pathetic Poundland terrorist in an estate car with a knife then you are as delusional as you are malevolent."
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Cyan said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    For every person innocent person killed in the west by islamist terror many more innocent mideasterners have been killed by western governments. That is just a uncomfortable truth most posters on here have not/will not admit to because it is uncomfortable.

    A large number of Muslims have been killed by their fellow Muslims, eg. Iran-Iraq War back in the 1980s (8 years long!), and IS car bombs in Iraq right up to the present day.
    I am pretty sure the Iraq-Iran war (i.e. a proxy for Shia v Sunni) killed way more Muslims (by Muslims) than anything the West has done, ever

    Approximately 1.5 million died in that war. Now, I've become a harsh and humbled critic of most western intervention in the MENA, but I don't believe we killed anything like that number of Muslims
    Millions died in the Bengal famine during WW2 as a result of the British decision knowingly to withhold grain.
    I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that......
    What a rude way to talk. If you wish to open a discussion, open one.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Sorry have some questions to answer...

    Masood spent four years working in the Middle East before returning to the UK and taking a teaching post in Luton, Bedfordshire, it is claimed. In 2012, he set up his own business in the West Midlands, a tutoring business.

    All those CRB checks etc, despite having stabbed somebody in the face, allowed him to get a teaching post. Or somebody turned a blind eye / didn't carry them out.

    Or he didn't work as a teacher and the students of his IQRA tutoring agency weren't children?

    Andrew Neil's reference to Poundland was idiotic.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,728
    Cyan said:

    I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that......

    What a rude way to talk. If you wish to open a discussion, open one.
    Um, OK:

    Bengal’s winter 1942 ‘aman’ rice crop, the most important one, was well below average. In addition, Bengal was hit by a cyclone and three tidal waves on 16 October 1942. An area of 450 square miles were swept by tidal waves, 400 square miles affected by floods and 3200 square miles damaged by wind and torrential rain, destroying food crops. This killed 14,000[7] people. Reserve stocks in the hands of cultivators, consumers and dealers were destroyed.‘ The homes, livelihood and property of nearly 2.5 million Bengalis were ruined or damaged.’[8] The districts affected were normally an important supplier of food to Greater Calcutta.[9]

    The crop was then hit by a fungus infection, Helminthosporium oryzae, triggered by exceptional weather conditions: this hit the main December 1942 crop and caused serious falls in yield, as much as 50% to 90% in some varieties.[10] This was believed to have had more serious effects on supply than the cyclone.[11] The only evidence by an expert in the subject concludes, 'The only other instance [of disease damage] that bears comparison in loss sustained by a food crop and the human calamity that followed in its wake is the Irish Potato Famine of 1845.'.[12]

    Bengal had been a food importer for the previous decade. Calcutta was normally supplied by Burma. The Allies had suffered a disastrous defeat at Singapore in 1942 against the Japanese military, which then occupied Burma. Burma was the world's largest exporter of rice in the inter-war period.[13] By 1940 15% of India's rice came from Burma.[14] From January 1942 until the end of the war, no Burmese rice reached India.

    Carry-over stocks of grain, the stocks over and above the new crop, usually a protection against food shortages, were well below the normal two months' supply,[15] because the 1941 crop was below average, because of the lack of imports from Burma, because of exports from Bengal to provinces with shortages, and because of compulsory purchases by government for military and civil service use in 1942.[16] Normally the carry-over would give extra supplies, cushioning the effect of a bad crop. Bengal’s food needs rose at the same time from the influx of refugees from Burma: the exact number is not known, but estimates range from 100,000 to 500,000. In addition, a substantial body of troops were stationed in Bengal to defend against the anticipated invasion.



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengal_famine_of_1943
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,728
    Cyan said:

    Sorry have some questions to answer...

    Masood spent four years working in the Middle East before returning to the UK and taking a teaching post in Luton, Bedfordshire, it is claimed. In 2012, he set up his own business in the West Midlands, a tutoring business.

    All those CRB checks etc, despite having stabbed somebody in the face, allowed him to get a teaching post. Or somebody turned a blind eye / didn't carry them out.

    Or he didn't work as a teacher and the students of his IQRA tutoring agency weren't children?

    Andrew Neil's reference to Poundland was idiotic.
    Quite - we normally use references to "Pound Shop" on PB :)
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Cyan said:

    I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that......

    What a rude way to talk. If you wish to open a discussion, open one.
    Um, OK:

    Bengal’s winter 1942 ‘aman’ rice crop, the most important one, was well below average. In addition, Bengal was hit by a cyclone and three tidal waves on 16 October 1942. An area of 450 square miles were swept by tidal waves, 400 square miles affected by floods and 3200 square miles damaged by wind and torrential rain, destroying food crops. This killed 14,000[7] people. Reserve stocks in the hands of cultivators, consumers and dealers were destroyed.‘ The homes, livelihood and property of nearly 2.5 million Bengalis were ruined or damaged.’[8] The districts affected were normally an important supplier of food to Greater Calcutta.[9]

    The crop was then hit by a fungus infection, Helminthosporium oryzae, triggered by exceptional weather conditions: this hit the main December 1942 crop and caused serious falls in yield, as much as 50% to 90% in some varieties.[10] This was believed to have had more serious effects on supply than the cyclone.[11] The only evidence by an expert in the subject concludes, 'The only other instance [of disease damage] that bears comparison in loss sustained by a food crop and the human calamity that followed in its wake is the Irish Potato Famine of 1845.'.[12]

    Bengal had been a food importer for the previous decade. Calcutta was normally supplied by Burma. The Allies had suffered a disastrous defeat at Singapore in 1942 against the Japanese military, which then occupied Burma. Burma was the world's largest exporter of rice in the inter-war period.[13] By 1940 15% of India's rice came from Burma.[14] From January 1942 until the end of the war, no Burmese rice reached India.

    Carry-over stocks of grain, the stocks over and above the new crop, usually a protection against food shortages, were well below the normal two months' supply,[15] because the 1941 crop was below average, because of the lack of imports from Burma, because of exports from Bengal to provinces with shortages, and because of compulsory purchases by government for military and civil service use in 1942.[16] Normally the carry-over would give extra supplies, cushioning the effect of a bad crop. Bengal’s food needs rose at the same time from the influx of refugees from Burma: the exact number is not known, but estimates range from 100,000 to 500,000. In addition, a substantial body of troops were stationed in Bengal to defend against the anticipated invasion.



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengal_famine_of_1943
    If you were my student, you'd get zero for that and a warning that if you didn't pull your finger out and do some proper work you'd be out on your ear.

    That blurb doesn't even mention the British decision.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Cyan said:

    Sorry have some questions to answer...

    Masood spent four years working in the Middle East before returning to the UK and taking a teaching post in Luton, Bedfordshire, it is claimed. In 2012, he set up his own business in the West Midlands, a tutoring business.

    All those CRB checks etc, despite having stabbed somebody in the face, allowed him to get a teaching post. Or somebody turned a blind eye / didn't carry them out.

    Or he didn't work as a teacher and the students of his IQRA tutoring agency weren't children?

    Andrew Neil's reference to Poundland was idiotic.
    Quite - we normally use references to "Pound Shop" on PB :)
    What a witty boy. Andrew Neil's courageous words can be summarised as follows:

    "Nearly 80 years ago, Britain won a defensive air battle. And the royal family didn't have to go to Canada after all. Are you listening, Daesh?"
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,586
    edited March 2017
    Cyan said:

    Sorry have some questions to answer...

    Masood spent four years working in the Middle East before returning to the UK and taking a teaching post in Luton, Bedfordshire, it is claimed. In 2012, he set up his own business in the West Midlands, a tutoring business.

    All those CRB checks etc, despite having stabbed somebody in the face, allowed him to get a teaching post. Or somebody turned a blind eye / didn't carry them out.

    Or he didn't work as a teacher and the students of his IQRA tutoring agency weren't children?

    Andrew Neil's reference to Poundland was idiotic.
    Doesn't matter if kids or adults. All reputable TEFL schools undertake DBS checks. He worked for a language school in Luton for 3 years but his own thing.

    But we know the sector of language schools has a had a lot of problems with cowboy operators in the past.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042

    What's Dave up to?

    twitter.com/joannag/status/845116958018170881

    Having dinner?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,064
    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    Election declared null and void! Hmm?

    "Declared null and void POST-count as the Labour candidate 'was ineligible to stand for election because of his employment status'."

    Eh ?

    I thought you only wouldn't stand if you were a bankrupt !
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    Election declared null and void! Hmm?

    "Declared null and void POST-count as the Labour candidate 'was ineligible to stand for election because of his employment status'."

    Eh ?

    I thought you only wouldn't stand if you were a bankrupt !
    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/141784/Part-1-Can-you-stand-for-election-LGEW.pdf

    You cannot be a candidate if at the time of your nomination and on polling day:

    1.3.a - You are employed by the local authority or hold a paid office under the authority (including joint boards or committees). Note that you may be ‘employed by the local authority’ if, for example, you work at certain schools, fire services, police or health services. This list is not exhaustive. For further information, see paragraph 1.20.

    Although can a returning officer declare an election void after it has taken place?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,217

    Sorry have some questions to answer...

    All those CRB checks etc, despite having stabbed somebody in the face, allowed him to get a teaching post. Or somebody turned a blind eye

    Perhaps the person he stabbed in the face?

    5 is going to be busy tracking down all those people who went through his "school".
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,432
    RobD said:

    What's Dave up to?

    twitter.com/joannag/status/845116958018170881

    Having dinner?
    You'll never make a consporacy theorist. ;)

    Clearly he still wants to be a player. He's waiting, like De Gaulle, for his country to come crawling back saying, "We need you!" ;)
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,694
    edited March 2017
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    Election declared null and void! Hmm?

    "Declared null and void POST-count as the Labour candidate 'was ineligible to stand for election because of his employment status'."

    Eh ?

    I thought you only wouldn't stand if you were a bankrupt !
    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/141784/Part-1-Can-you-stand-for-election-LGEW.pdf

    You cannot be a candidate if at the time of your nomination and on polling day:

    1.3.a - You are employed by the local authority or hold a paid office under the authority (including joint boards or committees). Note that you may be ‘employed by the local authority’ if, for example, you work at certain schools, fire services, police or health services. This list is not exhaustive. For further information, see paragraph 1.20.

    Although can a returning officer declare an election void after it has taken place?
    Yes, in 2010 we had a councillor get elected and then the council realised he was ineligible to stand as a result of his employment, and he had to resign for a by-election. The replacement candidate was Wes Streeting, who had stood as a paper candidate in the main elections a few weeks before, and now found himself with a good prospect. A lucky break for him that started his political career.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,217

    Blackburn Lab candidate was apparently employed by Growth Lancashire, quango part owned by the Council.

    Election appears to have been invalidated.

    600,000 members, none of whom could be arsed to vet the candidate *slow hand clap*

    That would have been an interesting encounter.

    "Evening Adam."

    "Evening Bob. What you doing here?"

    "I'm the Returning Officer. You?"

    "The Labour candidate."

    "Oh.....bugger......"
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,217

    RobD said:

    What's Dave up to?

    twitter.com/joannag/status/845116958018170881

    Having dinner?
    You'll never make a consporacy theorist. ;)

    Clearly he still wants to be a player. He's waiting, like De Gaulle, for his country to come crawling back saying, "We need you!" ;)
    Or maybe, not to be outdone by Osborne, Dave was having a job interview for Editor of the Spectator?

    Or maybe, as their mugshots were picked up every media outlet around the world, they were about to discover that the NYPD had never heard of the venerable institution that is the Bullingdon Club.....
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,741
    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,694
    P.s. As I recall it wasn't that the election was declared void, but, if the guy didn't resign, the council would have to pursue it through the courts. For a day or two the word was that the guy wasn't keen, but was clearly eventually persuaded, possibly with the intervention of his political party, since he then resigned.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,217

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,074
    Cyan said:

    Cyan said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    For every person innocent person killed in the west by islamist terror many more innocent mideasterners have been killed by western governments. That is just a uncomfortable truth most posters on here have not/will not admit to because it is uncomfortable.

    A large number of Muslims have been killed by their fellow Muslims, eg. Iran-Iraq War back in the 1980s (8 years long!), and IS car bombs in Iraq right up to the present day.
    I am pretty sure the Iraq-Iran war (i.e. a proxy for Shia v Sunni) killed way more Muslims (by Muslims) than anything the West has done, ever

    Approximately 1.5 million died in that war. Now, I've become a harsh and humbled critic of most western intervention in the MENA, but I don't believe we killed anything like that number of Muslims
    Millions died in the Bengal famine during WW2 as a result of the British decision knowingly to withhold grain.
    I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that......
    What a rude way to talk. If you wish to open a discussion, open one.
    What's rude about that?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,694
    edited March 2017
    A vast proportion of attacks over the 16 years since [9/11] have involved local volunteers attacking local targets. This is true of the conflicts in the Islamic world, where most terrorist casualties are inflicted. In 2010 intelligence officials in Afghanistan were surprised to learn that most Taliban attackers operated within 15 miles of home. The ranks of Boko Haram in Nigeria and al-Shabaab in Somalia are full of Nigerians and Somalis, not foreigners. It is true too in the west.

    In Spain, the Madrid bombings of 2004 were the work of a network of people who lived less than a mile from the station where they killed nearly 200 people. The London bombers of 7 July 2005 were from northern England and the city’s extended suburbs. The killers of off-duty soldier Lee Rigby in south-east London in 2013 lived a short drive from the site of the murder. The brothers who attacked the offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris in January 2015 lived a short drive from their target, while most of the network that attacked the city 11 months later were French, or Francophone Belgian. The Nice attacker was a long-term resident of the port city.


    Info from today's Guardian

    ...But the sad reality is that, though it may be reassuring to blame bad guys, or bad ideas, from a long way away for violence at home, no one should be surprised that the man who attacked one of Britain’s most symbolically charged locations was born in the UK.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,741

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    Have they never stood in that ward before?
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,741
    RobD said:

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    Have they never stood in that ward before?
    I've no idea.
    I was replying to MarqueeMark who said "Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems".
    A better reply would have been Greens down 30%, Tories down 27%, LibDems up 49.7%, which would give a good idea of the relative movement of the parties in this seat.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    RobD said:

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    Have they never stood in that ward before?
    I've no idea.
    I was replying to MarqueeMark who said "Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems".
    A better reply would have been Greens down 30%, Tories down 27%, LibDems up 49.7%, which would give a good idea of the relative movement of the parties in this seat.
    No, it gives pretty much no information.

    This is the problem with the focus on PCBEs - I haven't crunched the numbers, but it seems to me that a comfortable majority of seats have at least one of the two main and two second tier parties either standing where they didn't before or not standing where they did before.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042

    RobD said:

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    Have they never stood in that ward before?
    I've no idea.
    I was replying to MarqueeMark who said "Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems".
    A better reply would have been Greens down 30%, Tories down 27%, LibDems up 49.7%, which would give a good idea of the relative movement of the parties in this seat.
    Yeah, it is interesting that there is very little movement in the polls for them.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,655
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    Election declared null and void! Hmm?

    "Declared null and void POST-count as the Labour candidate 'was ineligible to stand for election because of his employment status'."

    Eh ?

    I thought you only wouldn't stand if you were a bankrupt !
    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/141784/Part-1-Can-you-stand-for-election-LGEW.pdf

    You cannot be a candidate if at the time of your nomination and on polling day:

    1.3.a - You are employed by the local authority or hold a paid office under the authority (including joint boards or committees). Note that you may be ‘employed by the local authority’ if, for example, you work at certain schools, fire services, police or health services. This list is not exhaustive. For further information, see paragraph 1.20.

    Although can a returning officer declare an election void after it has taken place?
    A "joint board" (such as, for example, the old West Midlands Fire Authority to which the West Midlands councils directly nominated representatives under statutory powers, is a very different statutory creature to an independent company of which a local authority is a minority shareholder (along with several other local authorities), which is the case here. The idea that the person is then an "employee" of that minority local authority shareholder is really stretching the law. If there isn't case law which backs the Returning Officer's ruling, which there might well be, then I would expect a court challenge to the disqualification.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,064
    IanB2 said:

    that the man who attacked one of Britain’s most symbolically charged locations was born in the UK.

    Adrian from Kent, born overwheminlgy likely to christian parents !
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,066
    Sean_F said:

    Cyan said:

    Cyan said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    For every person innocent person killed in the west by islamist terror many more innocent mideasterners have been killed by western governments. That is just a uncomfortable truth most posters on here have not/will not admit to because it is uncomfortable.

    A large number of Muslims have been killed by their fellow Muslims, eg. Iran-Iraq War back in the 1980s (8 years long!), and IS car bombs in Iraq right up to the present day.
    I am pretty sure the Iraq-Iran war (i.e. a proxy for Shia v Sunni) killed way more Muslims (by Muslims) than anything the West has done, ever

    Approximately 1.5 million died in that war. Now, I've become a harsh and humbled critic of most western intervention in the MENA, but I don't believe we killed anything like that number of Muslims
    Millions died in the Bengal famine during WW2 as a result of the British decision knowingly to withhold grain.
    I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that......
    What a rude way to talk. If you wish to open a discussion, open one.
    What's rude about that?
    If you read the history, the reply is very restrained.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,217

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    I have no idea of past voting history in this ward. Rejoice at the notion that the LibDems actually managed ot find a candidate, if you must. But if the LibDems managed to poll 75% previously, it would be a very meh result.

    Are you really that pig-shit thick? Or just desperate for anything to suggest that the national polling average of the LibDems is W-A-Y off beam at 9%?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,694

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    Election declared null and void! Hmm?

    "Declared null and void POST-count as the Labour candidate 'was ineligible to stand for election because of his employment status'."

    Eh ?

    I thought you only wouldn't stand if you were a bankrupt !
    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/141784/Part-1-Can-you-stand-for-election-LGEW.pdf

    You cannot be a candidate if at the time of your nomination and on polling day:

    1.3.a - You are employed by the local authority or hold a paid office under the authority (including joint boards or committees). Note that you may be ‘employed by the local authority’ if, for example, you work at certain schools, fire services, police or health services. This list is not exhaustive. For further information, see paragraph 1.20.

    Although can a returning officer declare an election void after it has taken place?
    A "joint board" (such as, for example, the old West Midlands Fire Authority to which the West Midlands councils directly nominated representatives under statutory powers, is a very different statutory creature to an independent company of which a local authority is a minority shareholder (along with several other local authorities), which is the case here. The idea that the person is then an "employee" of that minority local authority shareholder is really stretching the law. If there isn't case law which backs the Returning Officer's ruling, which there might well be, then I would expect a court challenge to the disqualification.
    Are we sure it was the ERO who acted? Quite possibly the guy resigned once he realised; there have been a few such cases recently and party agents should know the rules.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,694
    edited March 2017

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    I have no idea of past voting history in this ward. Rejoice at the notion that the LibDems actually managed ot find a candidate, if you must. But if the LibDems managed to poll 75% previously, it would be a very meh result.

    Are you really that pig-shit thick? Or just desperate for anything to suggest that the national polling average of the LibDems is W-A-Y off beam at 9%?
    Looking at the council website, there may have been a rewarding recently, as the historic results give the Ward name as Dunster. For Dunster, at District Council level it has been a Tory-Independent run off for years, with no LibDem candidate back to 1995. The Tories usually win. There was a LibDem candidate in the 2013 county council elections but he came fourth with about 8% - the Tories won with about 40% with UKIP second on about 28% (all figures done roughly in my head). Note that despite a very promising second place four years ago, UKIP didn't even bother this time.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,432
    Britain might need a Mayday loan.

    https://twitter.com/brexit/status/845177010016022528
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042

    Britain might need a Mayday loan.

    twitter.com/brexit/status/845177010016022528

    How shocking- one side of a negotiation puts the price as high as they can go.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,694
    RobD said:

    Britain might need a Mayday loan.

    twitter.com/brexit/status/845177010016022528

    How shocking- one side of a negotiation puts the price as high as they can go.
    Hasn't he unilaterally dropped by £10 billion?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Britain might need a Mayday loan.

    twitter.com/brexit/status/845177010016022528

    How shocking- one side of a negotiation puts the price as high as they can go.
    Hasn't he unilaterally dropped by £10 billion?
    Hah!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,432
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Britain might need a Mayday loan.

    twitter.com/brexit/status/845177010016022528

    How shocking- one side of a negotiation puts the price as high as they can go.
    Hasn't he unilaterally dropped by £10 billion?
    I think it's a euro/pound conversion.

    Sounds like he's in good humour:

    https://twitter.com/dannyctkemp/status/845178842725572609
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    On Theresa May's style, so different from her immediate predecessors:

    http://www.politico.eu/article/submarine-theresa-mays-terror-attack-westminster-london-crisis-management/
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,741

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    I have no idea of past voting history in this ward. Rejoice at the notion that the LibDems actually managed ot find a candidate, if you must. But if the LibDems managed to poll 75% previously, it would be a very meh result.

    Are you really that pig-shit thick? Or just desperate for anything to suggest that the national polling average of the LibDems is W-A-Y off beam at 9%?
    I'm just looking at the facts and hoping that others can view them logically or at least defend their views rationally.
    Try not to be so rude in future.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042
    Government ministers privately liken her to Angela Merkel and believe she has the capacity, like the German chancellor, to lead her country for a decade

    Just how many Weetabix does May prefer for breakfast? :p
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,058
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: practice 1 and 2 has happened but the F1 points spread market still isn't up. Will set about writing the pre-qualifying article, although that will entail finding the practice results on the official site as the BBC hasn't been bothered to put them up. Bit lax.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    that the man who attacked one of Britain’s most symbolically charged locations was born in the UK.

    Adrian from Kent, born overwheminlgy likely to christian parents !
    It looks increasingly probable that he is from the same generic background as the two from Romford that killed Lee Rigby and Trevor from Leytonstone who C4 originally pointed the finger at..
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,694

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    I have no idea of past voting history in this ward. Rejoice at the notion that the LibDems actually managed ot find a candidate, if you must. But if the LibDems managed to poll 75% previously, it would be a very meh result.

    Are you really that pig-shit thick? Or just desperate for anything to suggest that the national polling average of the LibDems is W-A-Y off beam at 9%?
    I'm just looking at the facts and hoping that others can view them logically or at least defend their views rationally.
    Try not to be so rude in future.
    And it isn't so difficult to understand. People are happy to give May a go and, dedicated remainers aside, get on with Brexit and all, but they want her to listen to the silent majority in the centre and a LibDem vote is a useful way of sending that message, given that most voters won't go near Labour while it is tearing itself apart. That rather garbled summary is entirely consistent with some excellent LibDem by-election results and a national poll rating only creeping slowly upwards to 10-12%.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Barnier: there is no price to leave
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Higher Croft (Blackburn): Election declared null and void?

    How exciting, we don’t get many of those…
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,320
    chestnut said:

    Barnier: there is no price to leave
    A difference of terminology presumably. Calling it an exit bill is more likely to piss us off and play hard ball than saying accounts will be settled.
  • Options
    O/T With Piers Morgan silenced for 24 hours today for Comic Relief, here's hoping Arsene Wenger signs a new contract today with the Gooners.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,217

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    I have no idea of past voting history in this ward. Rejoice at the notion that the LibDems actually managed ot find a candidate, if you must. But if the LibDems managed to poll 75% previously, it would be a very meh result.

    Are you really that pig-shit thick? Or just desperate for anything to suggest that the national polling average of the LibDems is W-A-Y off beam at 9%?
    I'm just looking at the facts and hoping that others can view them logically or at least defend their views rationally.
    Try not to be so rude in future.
    Terms like "Is that really difficult for you to understand ?" are likely to be met with equally abrupt language!

    Thank you for being arsed to look at the past history of the seat. But really, these local results show not very much that can be extrapolated to a wider picture, other than 1) the LibDems Bradford phone bank operation can cope with one seat a week b) a local GP as a candidate will greatly boost your vote.

    Six weeks today we will be running the fine tooth comb over a set of national results that WILL tell us something meaningful. How about we all just wait until then?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,217
    Fine. We'll pay it off at thirty quid a week....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,356
    edited March 2017
    Juncker and the EU start off saying the UK has to pay £50 billion, the UK start saying legally they have to pay virtually nothing, they end up in the middle
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,477

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
    Higher Croft (Blackburn):
    LAB: 59.6% (-10.4)
    UKIP: 22.6% (+22.6)
    CON: 17.8% (-12.2)

    Lab candidate disqualified. Second by-election likely.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    I have no idea of past voting history in this ward. Rejoice at the notion that the LibDems actually managed ot find a candidate, if you must. But if the LibDems managed to poll 75% previously, it would be a very meh result.

    Are you really that pig-shit thick? Or just desperate for anything to suggest that the national polling average of the LibDems is W-A-Y off beam at 9%?
    I'm just looking at the facts and hoping that others can view them logically or at least defend their views rationally.
    Try not to be so rude in future.
    Terms like "Is that really difficult for you to understand ?" are likely to be met with equally abrupt language!

    Thank you for being arsed to look at the past history of the seat. But really, these local results show not very much that can be extrapolated to a wider picture, other than 1) the LibDems Bradford phone bank operation can cope with one seat a week b) a local GP as a candidate will greatly boost your vote.

    Six weeks today we will be running the fine tooth comb over a set of national results that WILL tell us something meaningful. How about we all just wait until then?
    Brexiteers: 'Is that really difficult for you to understand' = 'Are you really that pig-shit thick'.
    A worldview in a nutshell.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,356
    edited March 2017
    As Foreign Secretary Boris finally has his own special branch officers to match Dave's, even if they are not for doing the job the latter used to do
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,381
    edited March 2017
    kle4 said:



    Although people should ignore pleas to get off the site at least. Thats just mr t being mr t.

    Quite so. SeanT has a right to his freedom of opinion. So do Beverley C and everyone else. The site has always had a majority of contributors who oppose bullying and attempts to silence people with different opinions, and it's important that we maintain that.

    To be specific: SeanT needs to stop trying to intimidate other posters into stopping posting. If he doesn't, he should himself be suspended. And I don't say that lightly, because I actually enjoy reading most of his posts.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,058
    Bit of a tetchy thread (glad to see Mr. Carp is back, and hope neither Mr. Dugarbandier nor Mrs C leave).

    F1: still writing the pre-qualifying article but I have noticed Something of some interest. May possibly be helpful for betting, but, even if not, it's quite interesting.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,211
    Nine months ago today:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/24/cameron-resigns/

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/24/now-corbyn-could-becoming-under-pressure/

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/24/the-first-challenge-for-the-brexit-team-dealing-with-buyers-remorse/

    Perhaps someone could make a list of all the banks which had apparently already started relocating to Dublin / Paris / Frankfurt and all the factories which were apparently going to be closed down.

    And then we can see what has actually happened since.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,082
    The equivalent of three and a half year's gross or five year's net contributions. Not really a very strong argument against Brexit is it. Leave and you have to pay £10 billion a year for five years, stay and you have to pay £10 billion a year (and rising) for ever.

    Remainiacs really do have some dumb arguments.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,200

    kle4 said:



    Although people should ignore pleas to get off the site at least. Thats just mr t being mr t.

    Quite so. SeanT has a right to his freedom of opinion. So do Beverley C and everyone else. The site has always had a majority of contributors who oppose bullying and attempts to silence people with different opinions, and it's important that we maintain that.

    To be specific: SeanT needs to stop trying to intimidate other posters into stopping posting. If he doesn't, he should himself be suspended. And I don't say that lightly, because I actually enjoy reading most of his posts.
    When SeanT puts his mind to it, he has an excellent in invective. He really doesn’t need to descend to abuse.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,803
    More fun at clown central, as staff leave:

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/84505/fresh-blow-jeremy-corbyn-three-more

    Apparently, Prescott stopped from writing speeches as he had "failed to find Jeremy's voice".

    Looking forward to Private Eye on that one.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,258

    kle4 said:



    Although people should ignore pleas to get off the site at least. Thats just mr t being mr t.

    Quite so. SeanT has a right to his freedom of opinion. So do Beverley C and everyone else. The site has always had a majority of contributors who oppose bullying and attempts to silence people with different opinions, and it's important that we maintain that.

    To be specific: SeanT needs to stop trying to intimidate other posters into stopping posting. If he doesn't, he should himself be suspended. And I don't say that lightly, because I actually enjoy reading most of his posts.
    I agree. Beverley C was talking complete b******* but I'll defend her right to say it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,356
    Lord Heseltine says Brexit is like finally letting the Nazis win the Second World War
    https://mobile.twitter.com/politicshome/status/845183407705526272
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The equivalent of three and a half year's gross or five year's net contributions. Not really a very strong argument against Brexit is it. Leave and you have to pay £10 billion a year for five years, stay and you have to pay £10 billion a year (and rising) for ever.

    Remainiacs really do have some dumb arguments.
    The fact are extant liabilities are so high just shows how expensive our EU membership is, nothing more than that

    The Economist had an interesting article on the breakdown of the bill. The largest part of the bill is money the EU had already spent but wasn't budgeted for. The second-largest part is money for the future that has been budgeted for but not spent yet.

    I don't see how the EU can reasonably demand both. If the UK has committed simply to what was budgeted regardless of future changes (the future commitments) then I don't see how we're commited to the unbudgeted expenditure. If we're liable to unbudgeted expenditure then the budget was just a guideline so I don't see how we're pre-committed to future expenditure.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit
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    All this 'exit bill' stuff from the EU seems, conveniently, to ignore completely the asset side of the ledger we have with the EU. All the shit we've been paying for for decades.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,803

    kle4 said:



    Although people should ignore pleas to get off the site at least. Thats just mr t being mr t.

    Quite so. SeanT has a right to his freedom of opinion. So do Beverley C and everyone else. The site has always had a majority of contributors who oppose bullying and attempts to silence people with different opinions, and it's important that we maintain that.

    To be specific: SeanT needs to stop trying to intimidate other posters into stopping posting. If he doesn't, he should himself be suspended. And I don't say that lightly, because I actually enjoy reading most of his posts.
    When SeanT puts his mind to it, he has an excellent in invective. He really doesn’t need to descend to abuse.
    To be fair to SeanT he has a demanding day job :smiley:
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,386

    The equivalent of three and a half year's gross or five year's net contributions. Not really a very strong argument against Brexit is it. Leave and you have to pay £10 billion a year for five years, stay and you have to pay £10 billion a year (and rising) for ever.

    Remainiacs really do have some dumb arguments.
    Also:

    1. This is their opening gambit.
    2. Any transition arrangement payments will be offset against this.
    3. It doesn't include a share of assets.
    4. We'll likely simply take British retirees onto our own books.

    The actual cash exit payment will likely be less than £15bn. (I would guess it will probably be more like £10-12bn.)
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Patrick said:

    All this 'exit bill' stuff from the EU seems, conveniently, to ignore completely the asset side of the ledger we have with the EU. All the shit we've been paying for for decades.

    Actually the exit bill is a net figure after taking into account the asset side. The asset side isn't very high though as most of the expenditure is just that, expenditure and not investment.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,217
    Perhaps our continental friends are showing us how to deal with the exit bill.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4275962/120-diners-flee-restaurant-without-paying-2-000-bill.html
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    Patrick said:

    All this 'exit bill' stuff from the EU seems, conveniently, to ignore completely the asset side of the ledger we have with the EU. All the shit we've been paying for for decades.

    The EU is doing its impression of a Clip Joint.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,915

    Patrick said:

    All this 'exit bill' stuff from the EU seems, conveniently, to ignore completely the asset side of the ledger we have with the EU. All the shit we've been paying for for decades.

    The EU is doing its impression of a Clip Joint.
    Not forgetting of course the unsigned accounts.

    Perhaps they could present their bill with a fully signed off set of audited accounts
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    Lord Heseltine says Brexit is like finally letting the Nazis win the Second World War
    https://mobile.twitter.com/politicshome/status/845183407705526272

    Although the Nazis had a fine line in uniforms I'm not too sure that even TSE, PB's fashion guru and notorious Remoaner, would agree with Hezza on that tweet.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,058
    Mr. W, to be fair to Lord Heseltine, it's quite easy to confuse holding a referendum on a political decision with a Blitzkrieg invasion.

    I can't tell you the number of times I mistook a leafletting volunteer for a squad of Panzers.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042

    Mr. W, to be fair to Lord Heseltine, it's quite easy to confuse holding a referendum on a political decision with a Blitzkrieg invasion.

    I can't tell you the number of times I mistook a leafletting volunteer for a squad of Panzers.

    Labour's ground game in 2010 = Operation Barbarossa? It all makes sense... :smiley:
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787



    kle4 said:



    Although people should ignore pleas to get off the site at least. Thats just mr t being mr t.

    Quite so. SeanT has a right to his freedom of opinion. So do Beverley C and everyone else. The site has always had a majority of contributors who oppose bullying and attempts to silence people with different opinions, and it's important that we maintain that.

    To be specific: SeanT needs to stop trying to intimidate other posters into stopping posting. If he doesn't, he should himself be suspended. And I don't say that lightly, because I actually enjoy reading most of his posts.
    When SeanT puts his mind to it, he has an excellent in invective. He really doesn’t need to descend to abuse.
    To be fair to SeanT he has a demanding day job :smiley:
    PB Student Liaison(s) Officer ?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. W, to be fair to Lord Heseltine, it's quite easy to confuse holding a referendum on a political decision with a Blitzkrieg invasion.

    I can't tell you the number of times I mistook a leafletting volunteer for a squad of Panzers.

    That's because your parents, in a bizarre initiation ritual, repeatedly dropped a wiffle stick on your head as a child ....
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,741

    Yesterday a poster on here was saying that LibDem victories seemed to have stalled:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
    LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
    CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
    GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) from Conservative.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
    GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
    IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
    CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
    IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
    LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Green GAIN Leominster South (Herefordshire) from Independent.

    Still difficult to know much about the relative movement of the LibDems using as your measuring stick seats where they didn't stand last time.... Dunster was previously a Tory-Green two-horse race. Not many of them around!
    Coming from not standing to 49.7% is not a bad effort. Is that really difficult for you to understand ?
    I have no idea of past voting history in this ward. Rejoice at the notion that the LibDems actually managed ot find a candidate, if you must. But if the LibDems managed to poll 75% previously, it would be a very meh result.

    Are you really that pig-shit thick? Or just desperate for anything to suggest that the national polling average of the LibDems is W-A-Y off beam at 9%?
    I'm just looking at the facts and hoping that others can view them logically or at least defend their views rationally.
    Try not to be so rude in future.
    Terms like "Is that really difficult for you to understand ?" are likely to be met with equally abrupt language!

    Thank you for being arsed to look at the past history of the seat. But really, these local results show not very much that can be extrapolated to a wider picture, other than 1) the LibDems Bradford phone bank operation can cope with one seat a week b) a local GP as a candidate will greatly boost your vote.

    Six weeks today we will be running the fine tooth comb over a set of national results that WILL tell us something meaningful. How about we all just wait until then?
    Brexiteers: 'Is that really difficult for you to understand' = 'Are you really that pig-shit thick'.
    A worldview in a nutshell.
    'Is that really difficult for you to understand' is a paraphrase of your own words
    "Still difficult to know much..."
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,058
    Mr. W, my wiffle stick was never abused by my parents. What a crude and horrendous untruth to assert!

    Mr. D, ve haff vays of losing our votes.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,803
    JackW said:



    kle4 said:



    Although people should ignore pleas to get off the site at least. Thats just mr t being mr t.

    Quite so. SeanT has a right to his freedom of opinion. So do Beverley C and everyone else. The site has always had a majority of contributors who oppose bullying and attempts to silence people with different opinions, and it's important that we maintain that.

    To be specific: SeanT needs to stop trying to intimidate other posters into stopping posting. If he doesn't, he should himself be suspended. And I don't say that lightly, because I actually enjoy reading most of his posts.
    When SeanT puts his mind to it, he has an excellent in invective. He really doesn’t need to descend to abuse.
    To be fair to SeanT he has a demanding day job :smiley:
    PB Student Liaison(s) Officer ?
    :lol:
  • Options

    Mr. W, to be fair to Lord Heseltine, it's quite easy to confuse holding a referendum on a political decision with a Blitzkrieg invasion.

    I can't tell you the number of times I mistook a leafletting volunteer for a squad of Panzers.

    Was it the way they clicked their heels together and shouting jawohl?

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sky News reporting that the "JustGiving" page for murdered PC Keith Palmer's family has reached over £422k :

    https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/Keith-palmer
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,074

    Mr. W, to be fair to Lord Heseltine, it's quite easy to confuse holding a referendum on a political decision with a Blitzkrieg invasion.

    I can't tell you the number of times I mistook a leafletting volunteer for a squad of Panzers.

    Modern Britain is obviously the society portrayed in The Man in the High Castle.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2017
    Prison-Conversion-Luton-East London-Saudi Arabia-Birmingham... if only there had been some clues

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/845192715302199296
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    Of course Hezza, as ever, has it precisely backwards. For 500 years our foreign policy has been to oppose the creation of a superstate on the continent of Europe. We like nation states not monsters. We have always come in on the side of those fighting against a would-be superpower. We fought the Holy Roman Empire. We fought the Spanish in Elizabeth I' s time. We fought Napoleon. We fought the Nazis. And now we fight the EU. T'was ever thus.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,475

    Bit of a tetchy thread (glad to see Mr. Carp is back, and hope neither Mr. Dugarbandier nor Mrs C leave).

    F1: still writing the pre-qualifying article but I have noticed Something of some interest. May possibly be helpful for betting, but, even if not, it's quite interesting.

    Morning, Mr. D.
    I'm a little disappointed with the (lack of) speed of the Ferraris. Vettel muttering about setup problems, but it doesn't look promising for the competitive championship I was hoping for.
    (OTOH, my Hamilton championship bet looks more than solid.)
    I look forward to your 'Something'.

    And yes, tetchy indeed. Just for the record, Mr. T is a writer not without merit, but he is frequently a veritable arse.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,058
    Mr. B, that's very similar to my own views currently.

    A few markets I want to see aren't up yet. I'll wait a little while (it's for the race rather than qualifying) and if they don't emerge I'll just add that bit to the pre-race article.
This discussion has been closed.