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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BREXIT backer George Galloway enters the race for Manchester G

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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    I remember telling @MarkSenior 6 months before the election that Yeovil was vulnerable and he told me that I was an idiot who didn't understand how to read polling data.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    There's nothing secret about decapitation when the Prime Minister campaigns in Yeovil & Twickenham. More fool the LDs for not knowing what was going on on their doorstep.

    Edit - as @TSE has already pointed out!

    It's a bit rich of a LibDem to complain about a 'decapitation' strategy, given that that was what they tried (and fortunately failed) to do in 2005.

    In any case, the Conservative campaign in LibDem seats was an equal-opportunity campaign, targetting head, body, arms, legs and toes without discrimination.

    I'm still unclear what the 'fear and division' referred to. The bitching seems to be about the LibDems losing seats.
    The fear was mostly the "Miliband + SNP" point. It's quite reasonable to campaign on fear when that fear is reasonable. (Just as it was for Remain, I should add, even as someone who went Leave in the end).
  • Trimble's last letter to McGuinness.

    https://twitter.com/EmmaMMcNamara/status/844158149720526848

    In general I think it's a pretty good principle to take the views of people on the spot over those of the long distance fulminators & sermonisers.

    Be that as it may, he was still a murdering c*%$ though.
    If he did good in the years of the peace process, then that is something to be thankful for. That he will soon be rotting in his grave at a relatively young age is also something to be thankful for. Many innocent people didn't get that chance at as long a life as his.
    Whatever floats your boat.
    Ranting on the internet about him being a murdering c*%$ just seems to me to be like those people who hang about outside court & hammer on the side of a security van containing some convicted paedo that they don't know from Adam.
    I don't think I do ranting that much. We'll just have to agree to disagree on the Saintliness of the likes of McGuinness.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    There's nothing secret about decapitation when the Prime Minister campaigns in Yeovil & Twickenham. More fool the LDs for not knowing what was going on on their doorstep.

    Edit - as @TSE has already pointed out!

    It's a bit rich of a LibDem to complain about a 'decapitation' strategy, given that that was what they tried (and fortunately failed) to do in 2005.

    In any case, the Conservative campaign in LibDem seats was an equal-opportunity campaign, targetting head, body, arms, legs and toes without discrimination.

    I'm still unclear what the 'fear and division' referred to. The bitching seems to be about the LibDems losing seats.
    The fear was mostly the "Miliband + SNP" point. It's quite reasonable to campaign on fear when that fear is reasonable. (Just as it was for Remain, I should add, even as someone who went Leave in the end).
    Well that is the difficulty of course. All negative attacks are labelled as project fear, but some amount of fear is usually justifiable, so it comes down to whether those behind the project are overselling it and those opposing it ignoring real fears.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    So much for carefully worded sentiments.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Charles said:

    I remember telling @MarkSenior 6 months before the election that Yeovil was vulnerable and he told me that I was an idiot who didn't understand how to read polling data.

    That is part of the classic PB insult trifecta.

    (a) by Sean T, via a sexual metaphor
    (b) by Mark Senior, over LD polling
    (c) by malcolmg, as a root vegetable
  • This is an abomination worse than pineapple on pizza.

    https://twitter.com/SirSandGoblin/status/843865332980858881
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    This is an abomination worse than pineapple on pizza.

    https://twitter.com/SirSandGoblin/status/843865332980858881

    No butter I see, that would make it indulgent.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373

    Trimble's last letter to McGuinness.

    https://twitter.com/EmmaMMcNamara/status/844158149720526848

    In general I think it's a pretty good principle to take the views of people on the spot over those of the long distance fulminators & sermonisers.

    Be that as it may, he was still a murdering c*%$ though.
    If he did good in the years of the peace process, then that is something to be thankful for. That he will soon be rotting in his grave at a relatively young age is also something to be thankful for. Many innocent people didn't get that chance at as long a life as his.
    Whatever floats your boat.
    Ranting on the internet about him being a murdering c*%$ just seems to me to be like those people who hang about outside court & hammer on the side of a security van containing some convicted paedo that they don't know from Adam.
    I don't think I do ranting that much. We'll just have to agree to disagree on the Saintliness of the likes of McGuinness.
    Since I didn't say, or think, McGuinness was saintly, we don't have to agree to disagree, except perhaps on the wankiness of putting words in people's mouths.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,959
    That's a little odd: the last time that account was used before this was April 2014. A GE and a referendum passed with no tweets, and then this?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    I remember telling @MarkSenior 6 months before the election that Yeovil was vulnerable and he told me that I was an idiot who didn't understand how to read polling data.

    That is part of the classic PB insult trifecta.

    (a) by Sean T, via a sexual metaphor
    (b) by Mark Senior, over LD polling
    (c) by malcolmg, as a root vegetable
    well I've certainly ticked of (b) and (c). I don't remember being insulted by @SeanT but maybe he wasn't up for it any more.
  • People are entitled to their view, and I guess politicians like Heseltine probably think it best to acknowledge the peace process and move on. St Martin was still a murdering c*%$ though!
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Well, I don't suppose Lord Heseltine was on Lord Tebbit's ideal dinner party guest list anyway.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I remember telling @MarkSenior 6 months before the election that Yeovil was vulnerable and he told me that I was an idiot who didn't understand how to read polling data.

    That is part of the classic PB insult trifecta.

    (a) by Sean T, via a sexual metaphor
    (b) by Mark Senior, over LD polling
    (c) by malcolmg, as a root vegetable
    well I've certainly ticked of (b) and (c). I don't remember being insulted by @SeanT but maybe he wasn't up for it any more.
    Sean once told me a speculum removed from Gordon Brown's rectum had more intelligence than me.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    That's a little odd: the last time that account was used before this was April 2014. A GE and a referendum passed with no tweets, and then this?
    No blue tick either, though that may be related to the lack of posts.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    First tweet in three years... controversial

    No blue tick either
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I remember telling @MarkSenior 6 months before the election that Yeovil was vulnerable and he told me that I was an idiot who didn't understand how to read polling data.

    That is part of the classic PB insult trifecta.

    (a) by Sean T, via a sexual metaphor
    (b) by Mark Senior, over LD polling
    (c) by malcolmg, as a root vegetable
    well I've certainly ticked of (b) and (c). I don't remember being insulted by @SeanT but maybe he wasn't up for it any more.
    You're exempted as Sean has actually met you :smile:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373

    That's a little odd: the last time that account was used before this was April 2014. A GE and a referendum passed with no tweets, and then this?
    Maybe the sight of the auld enemy Tebbit got him going..
  • Trimble's last letter to McGuinness.

    https://twitter.com/EmmaMMcNamara/status/844158149720526848

    In general I think it's a pretty good principle to take the views of people on the spot over those of the long distance fulminators & sermonisers.

    Be that as it may, he was still a murdering c*%$ though.
    If he did good in the years of the peace process, then that is something to be thankful for. That he will soon be rotting in his grave at a relatively young age is also something to be thankful for. Many innocent people didn't get that chance at as long a life as his.
    Whatever floats your boat.
    Ranting on the internet about him being a murdering c*%$ just seems to me to be like those people who hang about outside court & hammer on the side of a security van containing some convicted paedo that they don't know from Adam.
    I don't think I do ranting that much. We'll just have to agree to disagree on the Saintliness of the likes of McGuinness.
    Since I didn't say, or think, McGuinness was saintly, we don't have to agree to disagree, except perhaps on the wankiness of putting words in people's mouths.
    Lots of wankiness around today.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    If that Heseltine tweet is genuine, it's another case where Theresa May's opponents haven't helped themselves! cf. Gove, Leadsom, the Labour Party...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Floater said:
    Why do people delete their personal twitter accounts? It seems like people are still able to find proof of various things, and all it does it show they do indeed have something to hide when someone uncovers something. Because if they didn't think what they had said on there was worthy of being shamed, why delete them? Live with what you've written and defend it when the opponents bring it up, or apologise, it'll save time from doing that anyway, but looking shifty because you deleted things.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Floater said:
    isamic and isalmic

    spelling by angela raynor.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    HYUFD said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/mar/21/death-martin-mcguinness-reaction-politics-live?page=with:block-58d110dce4b01ea2330ba927#block-58d110dce4b01ea2330ba927

    "De Volkskrant, a respected Dutch newspaper, has published a long article about the negotiating strategy the EU will adopt during Brexit. It appears under the headline:

    Dit is de geheime EU-strategie voor scheiding van de Britten

    or, as Google Translate puts it,

    This is the secret EU Strategy for separation from the British

    And that article says it is based on information provided by insiders about what it says is the draft negotiating strategy that has been drawn up. It says these will come out when Theresa May presses the “Brexitknop” (Brexit button?). Based on feeding it through Google Translate, here are the key points.

    The EU will insist access to the internal market depends upon accepting the four freedoms, including freedom of movement, de Volkskrant claims.

    The EU will propose a deal guaranteeing the reciprocal rights of EU nationals in the UK and Britons in EU countries, de Volkskrant claims.

    The EU will demand an exit “bill”, de Volkskrant claims. Interestingly, it says that David Cameron is partly responsible for the possible demand being so high. Cameron demanded cuts to the EU budget for 2014-20. But, in return for spending going down in the early years, planned spending in the future rose sharply. There is an argument now that the UK is obliged to contribute to those future spending commitments.

    The EU will demand that the UK loses some of its existing trade advantages, de Volkskrant claims.

    The EU has yet to decide whether to allow talks on the withdrawal deal and talks on the future trade deal to take place in parallel, as the UK wants, or sequentially, de Volkskrant says.

    If the UK tries to leave without a deal, the EU could take it to court at the Hague to try to recover the money it thinks is owed, de Volkskrant says.

    Only six people, including Donald Tusk, the European council president, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, have seen the 10-page draft negotiating guidelines, de Volkskrant claims."

    Given immigration control in the form of work permits is non negotiable from the UK government perspective we are certainly leaving the single market/internal market and I doubt we will get a Free Trade Agreement either by the time we leave, at most we will get some bilateral agreements in areas like financial services and car manufacturing in return for some continued EU budget contributions. In other areas of the economy, including agriculture, we most likely go to WTO terms
    Not a great outlook, then.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Trimble's last letter to McGuinness.

    https://twitter.com/EmmaMMcNamara/status/844158149720526848

    In general I think it's a pretty good principle to take the views of people on the spot over those of the long distance fulminators & sermonisers.

    Be that as it may, he was still a murdering c*%$ though.
    If he did good in the years of the peace process, then that is something to be thankful for. That he will soon be rotting in his grave at a relatively young age is also something to be thankful for. Many innocent people didn't get that chance at as long a life as his.
    Whatever floats your boat.
    Ranting on the internet about him being a murdering c*%$ just seems to me to be like those people who hang about outside court & hammer on the side of a security van containing some convicted paedo that they don't know from Adam.
    I don't think I do ranting that much. We'll just have to agree to disagree on the Saintliness of the likes of McGuinness.
    Since I didn't say, or think, McGuinness was saintly, we don't have to agree to disagree, except perhaps on the wankiness of putting words in people's mouths.
    Lots of wankiness around today.
    How you behave while reading PB up to you I guess! :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689

    Well, I don't suppose Lord Heseltine was on Lord Tebbit's ideal dinner party guest list anyway.
    I certainly doubt Tebbit would get as glowing praise from Heseltine on his passing. Though personally I would give McGuinness credit for his role in the peace process despite his terrorist past
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    There was much criticism of the Lib Dem campaign team at the time - without up to date polling they simply had no idea what was going on on the ground. The Tories were polling daily and even though the party on the ground in places like Torbay and in places like Yeovil were asking for more help it all fell on deaf ears...there was an over-reliance on the incumbency effect which in Yeovil in particular was pointless because David Laws was spending much of his time in London and away from the constituency.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I wasn't aware that "Tiocfaidh ár lá" means "our day will come" referring to a united Ireland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiocfaidh_ár_lá

    It seems improbable that Heseltine would be in favour of that, though I may have missed something?
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Well, I don't suppose Lord Heseltine was on Lord Tebbit's ideal dinner party guest list anyway.
    does the Irish bit at the end say.."what a c**t"
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I wasn't aware that "Tiocfaidh ár lá" means "our day will come" referring to a united Ireland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiocfaidh_ár_lá

    It seems improbable that Heseltine would be in favour of that, though I may have missed something?

    Fake news?

    Either that or senile dementia
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    I wasn't aware that "Tiocfaidh ár lá" means "our day will come" referring to a united Ireland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiocfaidh_ár_lá

    It seems improbable that Heseltine would be in favour of that, though I may have missed something?

    Fake news?

    Either that or senile dementia
    Looks like a hack to me - the account seems pretty genuine before this tweet...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    edited March 2017

    I wasn't aware that "Tiocfaidh ár lá" means "our day will come" referring to a united Ireland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiocfaidh_ár_lá

    It seems improbable that Heseltine would be in favour of that, though I may have missed something?

    Stretching it a bit, but the reunification of Ireland due to Brexit angle?
  • I wasn't aware that "Tiocfaidh ár lá" means "our day will come" referring to a united Ireland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiocfaidh_ár_lá

    It seems improbable that Heseltine would be in favour of that, though I may have missed something?

    Stretching it a bit, but the reunification of Ireland due to Brexit angle?
    Has Putin hacked Hezza?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2017

    isam said:

    I wasn't aware that "Tiocfaidh ár lá" means "our day will come" referring to a united Ireland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiocfaidh_ár_lá

    It seems improbable that Heseltine would be in favour of that, though I may have missed something?

    Fake news?

    Either that or senile dementia
    Looks like a hack to me - the account seems pretty genuine before this tweet...
    Good to see he follows @celebsbreaking anyway
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    If that Heseltine tweet is genuine, it's another case where Theresa May's opponents haven't helped themselves! cf. Gove, Leadsom, the Labour Party...

    Heseltine's gone full Shirley Williams of late.

    Underpants on the head and pencils up the nose o'clock.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    If that Heseltine tweet is genuine, it's another case where Theresa May's opponents haven't helped themselves! cf. Gove, Leadsom, the Labour Party...

    Heseltine's gone full Shirley Williams of late.

    Underpants on the head and pencils up the nose o'clock.
    If he keeps on like this, the only harmony in the Conservative party will be the stuff he sprays on his Barnet (R)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257

    Charles said:

    I remember telling @MarkSenior 6 months before the election that Yeovil was vulnerable and he told me that I was an idiot who didn't understand how to read polling data.

    That is part of the classic PB insult trifecta.

    (a) by Sean T, via a sexual metaphor
    (b) by Mark Senior, over LD polling
    (c) by malcolmg, as a root vegetable
    I've had all three.

    If you're a Leaver there's (d) by Alastair Meeks, various metaphorical or literal insults, over the EU referendum as well.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,385
    Pro_Rata said:



    Rough numbers for GtMan at GE2015 give:

    CON 30
    LAB 41
    LD 9
    UKIP 16
    OTH 4

    So, falls to Tories with 5.5% swing, and today's polls indicate UNS of around 6% from Labour since GE2015.

    I think there are some straws in favour of Labour: swing resilient Labour heartlands, local government election, Burnham name recognition: to keep Labour the favourite, but you wouldn't like to guarantee it, especially with the Kipper inclined transfers in the almost certain Lab/Con second round.

    In the spirit of the day I would like to deny all I said yesterday and hope everyone forgets how bad I was.

    The above were not actually rough numbers for GE2015, they were Electoral Calculus predictions for a GE based on current polls, and what is more I had previously used the numbers as such! Suggestion of any trading bet value was similarly wide of the mark. I take comfort in my opinion that Labour would still get over the line - it just felt wrong. Such brain phase is why DYOR is such a common acronym on here...

    Interesting to note that based on the same GE prediction numbers, West Midlands currently sits at CON 36 LAB 37 with Electoral Calculus.

    On topic: Gorton, like Mr Meeks, I just don't see the challenge here either. A lot of WWC areas in Gorton who are nowhere near as likely to give Galloway a hearing as more Muslim areas were during Iraq. Equally with the LDs, I'm sure they will push hard, but their council by election successes have been fairly shire/suburban, and I've not seen much evidence that they've won back the student base that they would be relying on in a place like Gorton. The students now were already secondary school age at the time of Clegg's pledge, so the folk memory will remain for a few years yet.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    isam said:

    I wasn't aware that "Tiocfaidh ár lá" means "our day will come" referring to a united Ireland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiocfaidh_ár_lá

    It seems improbable that Heseltine would be in favour of that, though I may have missed something?

    Fake news?

    Either that or senile dementia
    Looks like a hack to me - the account seems pretty genuine before this tweet...
    I notice 21 March is the old fraud's birthday - 84 today. Maybe one glass of Moet too many.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    AAAaarrggghhh
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    (e) by Tyson, when he's tired and emotional, being compared to a fascist or Nazi
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    Charles said:

    PAW said:

    Casino_Royale - plenty of UK job agencies are active in Europe, and large firms such as Tesco had their own agencies there - I think you will find that immigration is an organised business and your proposal of limiting immigration to those with job offers would have very limited effect.

    I think you'd have the standard requirement of needing to prove that you had tried to recruit in the UK and the EU candidate was better than all UK candidate because...
    Cutting red tape, eh?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I don't have much sympathy for the view that "society is to blame" when people carry out depraved acts.

    A contributing factor that needs addressing, but as plenty of people don't commit such acts in the same situation, the person is still principally responsible and doesn't get a great deal of sympathy, though can be easier to understand.
    The perpetrator is ultimately responsible, but the social background can act as an enabler or an encouragement. None of us grow in vacuum.

    For a more recent example look at the racists who saw Brexit as justification for attacking perceived immigrants. They were always racists, and they were responsible, but once they thought society was on their side it gave them the nerve to act.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,352
    edited March 2017

    Floater said:
    isamic and isalmic

    spelling by angela raynor.
    Probably looking for something to put on Corbyn's chips.

    (If she is spelt with an "e" :-) )
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    MattW said:

    Floater said:
    isamic and isalmic

    spelling by angela raynor.
    Probably looking for something to put on Corbyn's chips.

    (If she is spelt with an "o" :-) )
    Does isamic terrorism mean being forced to watch Enoch Powell videos on YouTube night and day?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    Meanwhile in education news, school sends out standing order forms to all parents. Next nearest school 12 miles away, so not much "choice" round here. Extremely Tory area.
    http://www.hexham-courant.co.uk/news/hexham/Cash-strapped-Hexham-schools-ask-parents-for-donations-8185d738-311d-4748-9f96-58b528b76cec-ds
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I don't have much sympathy for the view that "society is to blame" when people carry out depraved acts.

    A contributing factor that needs addressing, but as plenty of people don't commit such acts in the same situation, the person is still principally responsible and doesn't get a great deal of sympathy, though can be easier to understand.
    The perpetrator is ultimately responsible, but the social background can act as an enabler or an encouragement. None of us grow in vacuum.

    For a more recent example look at the racists who saw Brexit as justification for attacking perceived immigrants. They were always racists, and they were responsible, but once they thought society was on their side it gave them the nerve to act.

    And reprehensible though it is they represent a tiny, tiny proportion of the population.

    99.99%+ committed no such attacks.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I blame the Northern Ireland educational system and its segregated schools

    My view of faith schools is similar to your own but I think you overestimate their effect - the counterfactual to the schools ceasing to be formally segregated, isn't that the schools would have become integrated, but that they would have become informally segregated.
    ...
    There has been some sociological research into "Integration" in schools in West Yorkshire, where if I recall correctly one of the main findings was that even at those schools where white and Asian students both attended in significant numbers, "mixing" mostly occurred in the outer circles of friendship groups.
    ...
    What you say about the Bradford experiment is interesting and I will not argue about the difference between mixing generally and the circles of friendship groups, but any form of integration / mixing / whatever removes the context that "they" are evil or different or monsters. Even if you do not mix much you soon learn that "they" are, in many ways, just like you. People.

    There are no easy answers in Northern Ireland but as long as we allow the ghettos to persist then it will always be a powder keg. The one good thing about the EU in the Irish context was that everyone could agree that they were part of Europe. It defused the whole thing rather well as it allowed an alternate identity that was more neutral compared to the old British/Irish divide.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I remember telling @MarkSenior 6 months before the election that Yeovil was vulnerable and he told me that I was an idiot who didn't understand how to read polling data.

    That is part of the classic PB insult trifecta.

    (a) by Sean T, via a sexual metaphor
    (b) by Mark Senior, over LD polling
    (c) by malcolmg, as a root vegetable
    well I've certainly ticked of (b) and (c). I don't remember being insulted by @SeanT but maybe he wasn't up for it any more.
    You're exempted as Sean has actually met you :smile:
    He said that I was 25 years younger than he expected!

    I'm not sure if that is a compliment or not...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I don't have much sympathy for the view that "society is to blame" when people carry out depraved acts.

    A contributing factor that needs addressing, but as plenty of people don't commit such acts in the same situation, the person is still principally responsible and doesn't get a great deal of sympathy, though can be easier to understand.
    The perpetrator is ultimately responsible, but the social background can act as an enabler or an encouragement. None of us grow in vacuum.

    For a more recent example look at the racists who saw Brexit as justification for attacking perceived immigrants. They were always racists, and they were responsible, but once they thought society was on their side it gave them the nerve to act.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/03/17/talk-of-a-nonexistent-tide-of-hate-against-eu-migrants-does-nothing-to-help-their-cause/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Charles, a long time ago, in another place, I was regularly mistaken for being in my 30s or 40s, or even older, when I was around 18 or 20.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990

    Floater said:
    isamic and isalmic

    spelling by angela raynor.
    Aren't they types of vinegar?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Charles said:

    I remember telling @MarkSenior 6 months before the election that Yeovil was vulnerable and he told me that I was an idiot who didn't understand how to read polling data.

    That is part of the classic PB insult trifecta.

    (a) by Sean T, via a sexual metaphor
    (b) by Mark Senior, over LD polling
    (c) by malcolmg, as a root vegetable
    (a) Sean has insulted me, but it was non-sexual. Raddled old heifer IIRC...
    (b) Who is Mark Senior?
    (c) malcolmg and I rarely "speak" because everything he says is wrong. Except last week when he and I agreed twice.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I remember telling @MarkSenior 6 months before the election that Yeovil was vulnerable and he told me that I was an idiot who didn't understand how to read polling data.

    That is part of the classic PB insult trifecta.

    (a) by Sean T, via a sexual metaphor
    (b) by Mark Senior, over LD polling
    (c) by malcolmg, as a root vegetable
    well I've certainly ticked of (b) and (c). I don't remember being insulted by @SeanT but maybe he wasn't up for it any more.
    You're exempted as Sean has actually met you :smile:
    He said that I was 25 years younger than he expected!

    I'm not sure if that is a compliment or not...
    I've had the same feedback, multiple times.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Beverley_C

    " It defused the whole thing rather well as it allowed an alternate identity that was more neutral compared to the old British/Irish divide."

    Did it really? I must have missed the bit where the people in the "Ghettos" decided that they were European and the criminal godfathers who run those "Ghettos" decided that they no longer had a beef with their opposite numbers because after all we are all European.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    There was much criticism of the Lib Dem campaign team at the time - without up to date polling they simply had no idea what was going on on the ground. The Tories were polling daily and even though the party on the ground in places like Torbay and in places like Yeovil were asking for more help it all fell on deaf ears...there was an over-reliance on the incumbency effect which in Yeovil in particular was pointless because David Laws was spending much of his time in London and away from the constituency.
    Is that right? I thought that the Lib Dems *did* have a decent idea what was happening on the ground in late March / April but couldn't shift resources quickly enough to make a difference - which given the number of seats under attack (which would mitigate against activists heading into target seats), and election spending limits isn't too surprising.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    There was much criticism of the Lib Dem campaign team at the time - without up to date polling they simply had no idea what was going on on the ground. The Tories were polling daily and even though the party on the ground in places like Torbay and in places like Yeovil were asking for more help it all fell on deaf ears...there was an over-reliance on the incumbency effect which in Yeovil in particular was pointless because David Laws was spending much of his time in London and away from the constituency.
    Is that right? I thought that the Lib Dems *did* have a decent idea what was happening on the ground in late March / April but couldn't shift resources quickly enough to make a difference - which given the number of seats under attack (which would mitigate against activists heading into target seats), and election spending limits isn't too surprising.
    Maybe hiring a few Battlebuses would've saved a few seats !
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    @Beverley_C

    " It defused the whole thing rather well as it allowed an alternate identity that was more neutral compared to the old British/Irish divide."

    Did it really? I must have missed the bit where the people in the "Ghettos" decided that they were European and the criminal godfathers who run those "Ghettos" decided that they no longer had a beef with their opposite numbers because after all we are all European.

    Try comparing the last 20 years in N.I. to the 20 years before that. Bombs, murders, etc...

    Every society has its Godfathers.

    The EU made the border an irrelevance. It altered the concept of a way Ireland could be united via the EU whilst still being Ireland and Ulster.

    If it had been allowed to continue for another 40 years then perhaps the "Irish Question" would have finally receded into the history books. We will never know.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    But why only from certain airports / countries ? If it is a security , it should be for all flights.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    MattW said:

    Floater said:
    isamic and isalmic

    spelling by angela raynor.
    Probably looking for something to put on Corbyn's chips.

    (If she is spelt with an "o" :-) )
    Does isamic terrorism mean being forced to watch Enoch Powell videos on YouTube night and day?
    If only people would!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    There was much criticism of the Lib Dem campaign team at the time - without up to date polling they simply had no idea what was going on on the ground. The Tories were polling daily and even though the party on the ground in places like Torbay and in places like Yeovil were asking for more help it all fell on deaf ears...there was an over-reliance on the incumbency effect which in Yeovil in particular was pointless because David Laws was spending much of his time in London and away from the constituency.
    Why would the LDs need polling in places like Yeovil ? I thought they did the pavements for donkeys years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    F1: coverage times suggest Mr. Eagles was right about the race starting at 6am, rather than 5am, due to the clocks changing:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39271750

    Weirdly, the radio show does start at 5am. An hour of radio build-up does not sound great.
  • F1: coverage times suggest Mr. Eagles was right about the race starting at 6am, rather than 5am, due to the clocks changing:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39271750

    Weirdly, the radio show does start at 5am. An hour of radio build-up does not sound great.

    I'm always right.

    You'd learn so much if you accepted that simple axiom.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @Beverley_C

    " It defused the whole thing rather well as it allowed an alternate identity that was more neutral compared to the old British/Irish divide."

    Did it really? I must have missed the bit where the people in the "Ghettos" decided that they were European and the criminal godfathers who run those "Ghettos" decided that they no longer had a beef with their opposite numbers because after all we are all European.

    Try comparing the last 20 years in N.I. to the 20 years before that. Bombs, murders, etc...

    Every society has its Godfathers.

    The EU made the border an irrelevance. It altered the concept of a way Ireland could be united via the EU whilst still being Ireland and Ulster.

    If it had been allowed to continue for another 40 years then perhaps the "Irish Question" would have finally receded into the history books. We will never know.
    Actually, Mrs. C. the community I live in isn't dominated by criminal gangsters. Such a thing in the UK is very rare. It certainly existed and still, I think, exists in NI far more than elsewhere.

    However, I am still trying to seek evidence for your explanation that the existence of and an embracement of a European identity affected matters in NI. If you could point towards some I should be grateful.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    There was much criticism of the Lib Dem campaign team at the time - without up to date polling they simply had no idea what was going on on the ground. The Tories were polling daily and even though the party on the ground in places like Torbay and in places like Yeovil were asking for more help it all fell on deaf ears...there was an over-reliance on the incumbency effect which in Yeovil in particular was pointless because David Laws was spending much of his time in London and away from the constituency.
    Why would the LDs need polling in places like Yeovil ? I thought they did the pavements for donkeys years.
    I suspect Lib Dems weren't used to people lying to them when canvassing, because they'd never been in power and unpopular before.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited March 2017
    surbiton said:

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    But why only from certain airports / countries ? If it is a security , it should be for all flights.
    it's allegedly to address gaps in foreign airport security. It doesn't apply to US carriers flying from those airports.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/us/politics/tsa-ban-electronics-laptops-cabin.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257

    @Beverley_C

    " It defused the whole thing rather well as it allowed an alternate identity that was more neutral compared to the old British/Irish divide."

    Did it really? I must have missed the bit where the people in the "Ghettos" decided that they were European and the criminal godfathers who run those "Ghettos" decided that they no longer had a beef with their opposite numbers because after all we are all European.

    Try comparing the last 20 years in N.I. to the 20 years before that. Bombs, murders, etc...

    Every society has its Godfathers.

    The EU made the border an irrelevance. It altered the concept of a way Ireland could be united via the EU whilst still being Ireland and Ulster.

    If it had been allowed to continue for another 40 years then perhaps the "Irish Question" would have finally receded into the history books. We will never know.
    Actually, Mrs. C. the community I live in isn't dominated by criminal gangsters. Such a thing in the UK is very rare. It certainly existed and still, I think, exists in NI far more than elsewhere.

    However, I am still trying to seek evidence for your explanation that the existence of and an embracement of a European identity affected matters in NI. If you could point towards some I should be grateful.
    I very much doubt a hard border will be put in place on the island of Ireland. And I'm not seeing much evidence for a rekindling of hostilities either.

    The Good Friday Agreement was about much more than the EU.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,385
    edited March 2017

    I blame the Northern Ireland educational system and its segregated schools

    My view of faith schools is similar to your own but I think you overestimate their effect - the counterfactual to the schools ceasing to be formally segregated, isn't that the schools would have become integrated, but that they would have become informally segregated.
    ...
    There has been some sociological research into "Integration" in schools in West Yorkshire, where if I recall correctly one of the main findings was that even at those schools where white and Asian students both attended in significant numbers, "mixing" mostly occurred in the outer circles of friendship groups.
    ...
    What you say about the Bradford experiment is interesting and I will not argue about the difference between mixing generally and the circles of friendship groups, but any form of integration / mixing / whatever removes the context that "they" are evil or different or monsters. Even if you do not mix much you soon learn that "they" are, in many ways, just like you. People.

    There are no easy answers in Northern Ireland but as long as we allow the ghettos to persist then it will always be a powder keg. The one good thing about the EU in the Irish context was that everyone could agree that they were part of Europe. It defused the whole thing rather well as it allowed an alternate identity that was more neutral compared to the old British/Irish divide.

    There is no one integration / mixing model. My secondary school was around 20% South Asian, though slightly more Hindu than Muslim, and friendship groups were commonly mixed with all groups participating well - my own group mixed all types. My siblings, only a few years later, went to another secondary school with a more recent wave of Bangladeshi immigrants, a group had been somewhat more segregated at a primary school where they made up 90+% of the pupils, and mixing was nowhere near as good.

    Looking at my children's current schools, the integration is generally really good, and yet I cannot be at all confident that they will never encounter a kid who goes on to become an Islamic fundamentalist of some description. And there are places elsewhere within the LEA where there are serious integration problems.

    Really, integration should start as early as possible. It is a natural instinct to form communities, but housing policy should discourage such communities becoming knotted so tightly that they do not have any need to mix.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ruth Davidson accusing others of rushing to the microphone with the angry face on and the same old complaints is a comment that betrays a certain lack of reflection.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    edited March 2017

    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    There was much criticism of the Lib Dem campaign team at the time - without up to date polling they simply had no idea what was going on on the ground. The Tories were polling daily and even though the party on the ground in places like Torbay and in places like Yeovil were asking for more help it all fell on deaf ears...there was an over-reliance on the incumbency effect which in Yeovil in particular was pointless because David Laws was spending much of his time in London and away from the constituency.
    Why would the LDs need polling in places like Yeovil ? I thought they did the pavements for donkeys years.
    I suspect Lib Dems weren't used to people lying to them when canvassing, because they'd never been in power and unpopular before.
    Don't forget the contribution of Lord Ashcroft.

    His constituency polling chimed in with the Lib Dem private polling.

    Well Question 2 anyway.

    It was the greatest black ops since Operation Fortitude, albeit inadvertently by his Lordship.

    Dave and Sir Lynton were very grateful for his Lordship's help



  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Don't forget the contribution of Lord Ashcroft.

    His constituency polling chimed in with the Lib Dem private polling.

    Well Question 2 anyway.

    It was the greatest black ops since Operation Fortitude, albeit inadvertently by his Lordship.

    Dave and Sir Lynton were very grateful for his Lordship's help

    The LD's didn't smell the coffee until May 8th.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944

    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    There was much criticism of the Lib Dem campaign team at the time - without up to date polling they simply had no idea what was going on on the ground. The Tories were polling daily and even though the party on the ground in places like Torbay and in places like Yeovil were asking for more help it all fell on deaf ears...there was an over-reliance on the incumbency effect which in Yeovil in particular was pointless because David Laws was spending much of his time in London and away from the constituency.
    Why would the LDs need polling in places like Yeovil ? I thought they did the pavements for donkeys years.
    I suspect Lib Dems weren't used to people lying to them when canvassing, because they'd never been in power and unpopular before.
    ... and yet their Richmond park canvass returns were pretty close to the result.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    There was much criticism of the Lib Dem campaign team at the time - without up to date polling they simply had no idea what was going on on the ground. The Tories were polling daily and even though the party on the ground in places like Torbay and in places like Yeovil were asking for more help it all fell on deaf ears...there was an over-reliance on the incumbency effect which in Yeovil in particular was pointless because David Laws was spending much of his time in London and away from the constituency.
    Why would the LDs need polling in places like Yeovil ? I thought they did the pavements for donkeys years.
    I suspect Lib Dems weren't used to people lying to them when canvassing, because they'd never been in power and unpopular before.
    ... and yet their Richmond park canvass returns were pretty close to the result.
    When they were neither in power nor unpopular [relatively!]. QED.
  • Dexter is dead. Colin Dexter, that is, author of Inspector Morse.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    There was much criticism of the Lib Dem campaign team at the time - without up to date polling they simply had no idea what was going on on the ground. The Tories were polling daily and even though the party on the ground in places like Torbay and in places like Yeovil were asking for more help it all fell on deaf ears...there was an over-reliance on the incumbency effect which in Yeovil in particular was pointless because David Laws was spending much of his time in London and away from the constituency.
    Why would the LDs need polling in places like Yeovil ? I thought they did the pavements for donkeys years.
    I suspect Lib Dems weren't used to people lying to them when canvassing, because they'd never been in power and unpopular before.
    ... and yet their Richmond park canvass returns were pretty close to the result.
    they're very good. 2015 was abberation. doesn't mean people will vote for the liars.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    ...It certainly existed and still, I think, exists in NI far more than elsewhere.

    Of course. That is a direct consequence of the history of the place. Given enough time that could change.

    However, I am still trying to seek evidence for your explanation that the existence of and an embracement of a European identity affected matters in NI. If you could point towards some I should be grateful.

    Google is your friend Mr Llama. It is not too hard to dig out political figures over there that believe that the EU made a big difference. Here are a couple that took about 30 seconds to find....

    "George Mitchell, the US Senator who brokered the Good Friday agreement 18 years ago and helped bring calm to a chaotic Northern Ireland, claimed leaving the EU could limit hopes of further cooperation to the region.

    He said: "I believe that the European Union was an important factor that led the United Kingdom and Ireland to co-operate in establishing a process that led to the Good Friday Agreement and I think the UK being out of the European Union may reduce the prospect for further co-operation."


    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/772221/Brexit-EU-referendum-Irish-peace-process-good-friday-agreement-George-Mitchell


    and from the Torygraph... "In wider terms membership of the European Union has enabled the dilution of the concept of sovereignty in Ireland, led to the Irish Republic’s claim to the six counties comprising Northern Ireland being dropped and in turn, has helped to reduce the stakes in the old battles between Irish unification and UK unionism. The devolution arrangements have helped to ease tensions and build growing confidence."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12161332/Could-Brexit-disturb-the-peace-in-Northern-Ireland.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    SeanT said:

    Tim_B said:

    surbiton said:

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    But why only from certain airports / countries ? If it is a security , it should be for all flights.
    it's allegedly to address gaps in foreign airport security. It doesn't apply to US carriers flying from those airports.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/us/politics/tsa-ban-electronics-laptops-cabin.html
    They've completely fucked Etihad and Emirates though. These airlines specialise in long haul. Who is going to go longhaul without a laptop, iPad, tablet, for ten hours, if you CAN take them on a rival airline.

    I do lots of long haul. I watch TV and movies on my iPad, and do work on my laptop.
    You'll have to use quill, ink & vellum :>
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990

    @Beverley_C

    " It defused the whole thing rather well as it allowed an alternate identity that was more neutral compared to the old British/Irish divide."

    Did it really? I must have missed the bit where the people in the "Ghettos" decided that they were European and the criminal godfathers who run those "Ghettos" decided that they no longer had a beef with their opposite numbers because after all we are all European.

    Try comparing the last 20 years in N.I. to the 20 years before that. Bombs, murders, etc...

    Every society has its Godfathers.

    The EU made the border an irrelevance. It altered the concept of a way Ireland could be united via the EU whilst still being Ireland and Ulster.

    If it had been allowed to continue for another 40 years then perhaps the "Irish Question" would have finally receded into the history books. We will never know.
    Actually, Mrs. C. the community I live in isn't dominated by criminal gangsters.
    Aren't most gangsters criminals?
  • @Beverley_C

    " It defused the whole thing rather well as it allowed an alternate identity that was more neutral compared to the old British/Irish divide."

    Did it really? I must have missed the bit where the people in the "Ghettos" decided that they were European and the criminal godfathers who run those "Ghettos" decided that they no longer had a beef with their opposite numbers because after all we are all European.

    Try comparing the last 20 years in N.I. to the 20 years before that. Bombs, murders, etc...

    Every society has its Godfathers.

    The EU made the border an irrelevance. It altered the concept of a way Ireland could be united via the EU whilst still being Ireland and Ulster.

    If it had been allowed to continue for another 40 years then perhaps the "Irish Question" would have finally receded into the history books. We will never know.
    Actually, Mrs. C. the community I live in isn't dominated by criminal gangsters.
    Aren't most gangsters criminals?
    Only the ones that get caught.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    SeanT said:

    Tim_B said:

    surbiton said:

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    But why only from certain airports / countries ? If it is a security , it should be for all flights.
    it's allegedly to address gaps in foreign airport security. It doesn't apply to US carriers flying from those airports.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/us/politics/tsa-ban-electronics-laptops-cabin.html
    They've completely fucked Etihad and Emirates though. These airlines specialise in long haul. Who is going to go longhaul without a laptop, iPad, tablet, for ten hours, if you CAN take them on a rival airline.

    I do lots of long haul. I watch TV and movies on my iPad, and do work on my laptop.
    I'm sure that's not a coincidence.

    America First.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990

    Don't forget the contribution of Lord Ashcroft.

    His constituency polling chimed in with the Lib Dem private polling.

    Well Question 2 anyway.

    It was the greatest black ops since Operation Fortitude, albeit inadvertently by his Lordship.

    Dave and Sir Lynton were very grateful for his Lordship's help

    The LD's didn't smell the coffee until May 8th.
    David Laws' book, 'Coalition', suggests that they did realise what was hitting them and that Lib Dem HQ was pulling resource from hopeless holds into what they thought were hopeful holds (as best they could), but that they were always running to catch up.

    The Tories made a similar error in 2001, when it identified target seats too far down the list, with the result that not only were they not taken but neither were those with the smallest Labour majorities which CCO (as it still was) had decided, wrongly, could be won on local efforts alone.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944

    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    "Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. "

    Don't you feel a bit queasy about supporting a party whose leader says that the result of a democratic election, won by a moderate centre-right party, with roots going back centuries and led by a conspicuously moderate and decent leader, meant that 'fear and division had won'?
    Nope. Remember the campaign.
    I do. Surely it would be fairer to suggest that fear lost?
    Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
    "Competence not chaos" - that was a joke!
    Secret decapitation of LibDems who had supported them in coalition.
    Wasn't bloody secret.

    When Dave campaigned in Yeovil, 400 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house, Paddy and the Lib Dems thought it confirmed Dave, George, Andrew Feldman, and Sir Lynton (pbuh) didn't have a flipping clue about campaigning or winning.
    There was much criticism of the Lib Dem campaign team at the time - without up to date polling they simply had no idea what was going on on the ground. The Tories were polling daily and even though the party on the ground in places like Torbay and in places like Yeovil were asking for more help it all fell on deaf ears...there was an over-reliance on the incumbency effect which in Yeovil in particular was pointless because David Laws was spending much of his time in London and away from the constituency.
    Why would the LDs need polling in places like Yeovil ? I thought they did the pavements for donkeys years.
    I suspect Lib Dems weren't used to people lying to them when canvassing, because they'd never been in power and unpopular before.
    ... and yet their Richmond park canvass returns were pretty close to the result.
    When they were neither in power nor unpopular [relatively!]. QED.
    Polls were wrong in 2015, canvass returns also - except the Tory ones?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited March 2017

    @Beverley_C

    " It defused the whole thing rather well as it allowed an alternate identity that was more neutral compared to the old British/Irish divide."

    Did it really? I must have missed the bit where the people in the "Ghettos" decided that they were European and the criminal godfathers who run those "Ghettos" decided that they no longer had a beef with their opposite numbers because after all we are all European.

    Try comparing the last 20 years in N.I. to the 20 years before that. Bombs, murders, etc...

    Every society has its Godfathers.

    The EU made the border an irrelevance. It altered the concept of a way Ireland could be united via the EU whilst still being Ireland and Ulster.

    If it had been allowed to continue for another 40 years then perhaps the "Irish Question" would have finally receded into the history books. We will never know.
    Actually, Mrs. C. the community I live in isn't dominated by criminal gangsters.
    Aren't most gangsters criminals?
    But there are apparently none in England, so this must be Fake News :) ... or else they have all been caught :D

    List of 145 'toxic' career criminals unveiled as police warn 'if you mix with them, we're watching you'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2332467/SOCA-unveils-career-criminal-list-includes-British-Godfather.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    Trump indicates that his policy on foreign trade will essentially be to bully others with the USA's large stack. When you're bullied by someone with a much bigger stack in poker, although you might not want to you generally have to fold. The EU's stack is considerably larger than Britain's.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    Can they not add a ban on people taking fecking huge suitcases as hand luggage and taking up all of the space in the overhead bins?

    (It used to be called a 'hat rack'!)
  • ChaosOdinChaosOdin Posts: 67

    @Beverley_C

    " It defused the whole thing rather well as it allowed an alternate identity that was more neutral compared to the old British/Irish divide."

    Did it really? I must have missed the bit where the people in the "Ghettos" decided that they were European and the criminal godfathers who run those "Ghettos" decided that they no longer had a beef with their opposite numbers because after all we are all European.

    Try comparing the last 20 years in N.I. to the 20 years before that. Bombs, murders, etc...

    Every society has its Godfathers.

    The EU made the border an irrelevance. It altered the concept of a way Ireland could be united via the EU whilst still being Ireland and Ulster.

    If it had been allowed to continue for another 40 years then perhaps the "Irish Question" would have finally receded into the history books. We will never know.
    Actually, Mrs. C. the community I live in isn't dominated by criminal gangsters.
    Aren't most gangsters criminals?
    But there are apparently none in England, so this must be Fake News :) ... or else they have all been caught :D

    List of 145 'toxic' career criminals unveiled as police warn 'if you mix with them, we're watching you'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2332467/SOCA-unveils-career-criminal-list-includes-British-Godfather.html
    My dad, who is a policeman and worked in the major incident squad (murders) for most of his career has a wheelbarrow that he got for free that gangsters in Manchester used to transport dead bodies.

    It was scheduled to be destroyed but he thought it was a waste of a perfectly good wheelbarrow.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    SeanT said:

    Tim_B said:

    surbiton said:

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    But why only from certain airports / countries ? If it is a security , it should be for all flights.
    it's allegedly to address gaps in foreign airport security. It doesn't apply to US carriers flying from those airports.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/us/politics/tsa-ban-electronics-laptops-cabin.html
    They've completely fucked Etihad and Emirates though. These airlines specialise in long haul. Who is going to go longhaul without a laptop, iPad, tablet, for ten hours, if you CAN take them on a rival airline.

    I do lots of long haul. I watch TV and movies on my iPad, and do work on my laptop.
    Great for slacker business travellers - can't do any work, so will have to just sit there necking G&T and looking out of the window!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Don't forget the contribution of Lord Ashcroft.

    His constituency polling chimed in with the Lib Dem private polling.

    Well Question 2 anyway.

    It was the greatest black ops since Operation Fortitude, albeit inadvertently by his Lordship.

    Dave and Sir Lynton were very grateful for his Lordship's help

    The LD's didn't smell the coffee until May 8th.
    David Laws' book, 'Coalition', suggests that they did realise what was hitting them and that Lib Dem HQ was pulling resource from hopeless holds into what they thought were hopeful holds (as best they could), but that they were always running to catch up.

    The Tories made a similar error in 2001, when it identified target seats too far down the list, with the result that not only were they not taken but neither were those with the smallest Labour majorities which CCO (as it still was) had decided, wrongly, could be won on local efforts alone.
    Yes - I was just making an Ashcroft gag really! There were, as you say, some signs from inside the LD campaign that they were starting to realise how bad it might be.

    Hitting the sweet spot with targets is tough, but the Tories nailed it last time. It doesn't help if you have to pretend to target seats for a hypothetical majority - and tbf it looked like both parties were doing that at one stage. But once Ed was campaigning in North Warwickshire (target #1) that game was pretty much up.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Polls were wrong in 2015, canvass returns also - except the Tory ones?

    I think the Tories were surprised at just how good the result was, but their private polling / canvassing etc. was pointing towards it. The public polling was tempering their expectation, not least because everyone's working assumption is normally that your own polling tends to sugarcoat the true picture.

    I think the SNP were pretty clear by the end that everything was in play.
  • Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Tim_B said:

    surbiton said:

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    But why only from certain airports / countries ? If it is a security , it should be for all flights.
    it's allegedly to address gaps in foreign airport security. It doesn't apply to US carriers flying from those airports.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/us/politics/tsa-ban-electronics-laptops-cabin.html
    They've completely fucked Etihad and Emirates though. These airlines specialise in long haul. Who is going to go longhaul without a laptop, iPad, tablet, for ten hours, if you CAN take them on a rival airline.

    I do lots of long haul. I watch TV and movies on my iPad, and do work on my laptop.
    You'll have to use quill, ink & vellum :>
    Report on Bloomberg says Etihad and Emirates are excluded and not affected
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    SeanT said:

    Tim_B said:

    surbiton said:

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    But why only from certain airports / countries ? If it is a security , it should be for all flights.
    it's allegedly to address gaps in foreign airport security. It doesn't apply to US carriers flying from those airports.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/us/politics/tsa-ban-electronics-laptops-cabin.html
    They've completely fucked Etihad and Emirates though. These airlines specialise in long haul. Who is going to go longhaul without a laptop, iPad, tablet, for ten hours, if you CAN take them on a rival airline.

    I do lots of long haul. I watch TV and movies on my iPad, and do work on my laptop.

    They are also going to make the US a lot less attractive for people from elsewhere, too. The US is setting itself up to be seen as a place that offers nothing but an intensely hostile welcome to travellers from abroad. It's not a good look.

    As no-one is going to put a laptop in the hold of a plane, the US has really buggered these airlines. It looks like a protection racket.

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    From a quick Vanillaforums search, it doesn't appear as though anyone has yet quoted Corbyn's words about McGuinness.

    "Martin McGuinness played an immeasurable role in bringing about peace in Ireland, after years as a key protagonist in the tragedy of the conflict.

    "Martin played an absolutely crucial role in bringing about the Good Friday Agreement and a peace process which, despite difficulties, remains an example throughout the world of what can be achieved when the will is there.

    "As we reflect on his role, the past 20 years have shown us that if there is leadership and the will on all sides, we can achieve change."

    ..

    "a key protagonist in the tragedy", rather mealy-mouthed to say the least.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Tim_B said:

    surbiton said:

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    But why only from certain airports / countries ? If it is a security , it should be for all flights.
    it's allegedly to address gaps in foreign airport security. It doesn't apply to US carriers flying from those airports.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/us/politics/tsa-ban-electronics-laptops-cabin.html
    They've completely fucked Etihad and Emirates though. These airlines specialise in long haul. Who is going to go longhaul without a laptop, iPad, tablet, for ten hours, if you CAN take them on a rival airline.

    I do lots of long haul. I watch TV and movies on my iPad, and do work on my laptop.
    You'll have to use quill, ink & vellum :>
    Report on Bloomberg says Etihad and Emirates are excluded and not affected
    Bugger. There goes my slacker excuse...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Tim_B said:

    surbiton said:

    UK due to announce a ban on laptops and other electronic devices on certain flights, following similar US move

    But why only from certain airports / countries ? If it is a security , it should be for all flights.
    it's allegedly to address gaps in foreign airport security. It doesn't apply to US carriers flying from those airports.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/us/politics/tsa-ban-electronics-laptops-cabin.html
    They've completely fucked Etihad and Emirates though. These airlines specialise in long haul. Who is going to go longhaul without a laptop, iPad, tablet, for ten hours, if you CAN take them on a rival airline.

    I do lots of long haul. I watch TV and movies on my iPad, and do work on my laptop.
    Great for slacker business travellers - can't do any work, so will have to just sit there necking G&T and looking out of the window!
    First and Business travellers tend not to be slackers, though. Lots of them go Biz or First BECAUSE they have room, space and quiet to work. No laptop? No work? Watch endless episodes of Big Bang Theory instead? Or fly BA, or Qantas, or, of course, an American airline, and carry on working.

    This has the potential to destroy the Gulf Airlines overnight. Brutal.

    I never, ever work on planes. Flying Biz to HK this Friday. I will drink some wine, read a book, watch some telly and, hopefully, get some sleep. Plenty of time to work on the other side.

This discussion has been closed.