One of the main reasons I - as a relatively well off metropolitan londoner - voted to leave, was the fact that even on 75k aged 31 I felt utterly unable to to start a family. My own living standards - and I say this as someone who's relatively well off (though not compared to some posters on here) - are paltry in comparison to those of my parents at my age.
With 300,000 new people coming to the country each year the simple fact is the infrastructure cannot cope. The salary I earn which would have bought a family home a generation ago barely buys a one bedroom grime pit in london these days. Move to the provinces? I'd be lucky to find a job and if I did my income would be cut by half, probably more.
In which other major world capital would 2-3 times average earnings be enough to buy a family home?
I can empathise with your reasons for being frustrated with the economy and your position in it, but hoping to achieve what would be a brutal financial reset by voting for a geopolitical reset seems naive.
You're making a lot of unwarranted assumptions about lots of people on here. A lot of us are worried about our children and the future of this country and would like to have good government and a good opposition and have said so.
Those who were responsible for Brexit were those who took Britain's membership of the EU and the advantages of the EU for Britain for granted for far too long and forgot to think about - let alone articulate convincingly - the case for both. In that vacuum mountebanks like Farage prospered.
One of the main reasons I - as a relatively well off metropolitan londoner - voted to leave, was the fact that even on 75k aged 31 I felt utterly unable to to start a family. My own living standards - and I say this as someone who's relatively well off (though not compared to some posters on here) - are paltry in comparison to those of my parents at my age.
With 300,000 new people coming to the country each year the simple fact is the infrastructure cannot cope. The salary I earn which would have bought a family home a generation ago barely buys a one bedroom grime pit in london these days. Move to the provinces? I'd be lucky to find a job and if I did my income would be cut by half, probably more.
I genuinely don't know if Brexit will be good or bad for my hypothetical children, but they weighed heavily on my mind as I was casting my vote. All I could think was, maybe things can get worse, but since I am already in a position where I am unable to house, feed and educate a family then I might as well gamble and hope that our nation's collective decision to pull the emergency cord will finally lead to something being done.
For me, it was an all-in shove. And I say this as a well-off middle class professional. I imagine quite a few people worse off than me genuinely did say "well it can't get any worse" and they would be quite right.
You're easily in the top 10% of the income distribution. I find it amazing you think you can't afford to start a family.
One of the main reasons I - as a relatively well off metropolitan londoner - voted to leave, was the fact that even on 75k aged 31 I felt utterly unable to to start a family. My own living standards - and I say this as someone who's relatively well off (though not compared to some posters on here) - are paltry in comparison to those of my parents at my age.
With 300,000 new people coming to the country each year the simple fact is the infrastructure cannot cope. The salary I earn which would have bought a family home a generation ago barely buys a one bedroom grime pit in london these days. Move to the provinces? I'd be lucky to find a job and if I did my income would be cut by half, probably more.
In which other major world capital would 2-3 times average earnings be enough to buy a family home?
I can empathise with your reasons for being frustrated with the economy and your position in it, but hoping to achieve what would be a brutal financial reset by voting for a geopolitical reset seems naive.
Dupont-Aignan is a pretty interesting character. He's Eurosceptic without being - and I chose my words carefully - a member of a party with borderline fascist leanings.
France, like so many other European countries, needs sensible Eurosceptics. By which I mean fiscally rational, business friendly Eurosceptics.
He's also a typical French chauvinist so it's not surprising that he would appeal to the same sensibilities in the British.
Presumably that's a different Lutfur Rahman to the one that's banned from office until 2021... though how many people by that name can there be...
Rahman is a very common Bangladeshi surname.
There are a range of little more than a dozen that cover the vast majority of male and female surnames. Females used to have a distinct feminine surname (Nessa, Bibi, Khanom etc) as opposed to males (Ullah, Uddin, Ali, Ahmed etc) though it seems to be dying out a little.
You're making a lot of unwarranted assumptions about lots of people on here. A lot of us are worried about our children and the future of this country and would like to have good government and a good opposition and have said so.
Those who were responsible for Brexit were those who took Britain's membership of the EU and the advantages of the EU for Britain for granted for far too long and forgot to think about - let alone articulate convincingly - the case for both. In that vacuum mountebanks like Farage prospered.
One of the main reasons I - as a relatively well off metropolitan londoner - voted to leave, was the fact that even on 75k aged 31 I felt utterly unable to to start a family. My own living standards - and I say this as someone who's relatively well off (though not compared to some posters on here) - are paltry in comparison to those of my parents at my age.
With 300,000 new people coming to the country each year the simple fact is the infrastructure cannot cope. The salary I earn which would have bought a family home a generation ago barely buys a one bedroom grime pit in london these days. Move to the provinces? I'd be lucky to find a job and if I did my income would be cut by half, probably more.
I genuinely don't know if Brexit will be good or bad for my hypothetical children, but they weighed heavily on my mind as I was casting my vote. All I could think was, maybe things can get worse, but since I am already in a position where I am unable to house, feed and educate a family then I might as well gamble and hope that our nation's collective decision to pull the emergency cord will finally lead to something being done.
For me, it was an all-in shove. And I say this as a well-off middle class professional. I imagine quite a few people worse off than me genuinely did say "well it can't get any worse" and they would be quite right.
True my father worked as a joiner in construction in and around York in the 60s.He had three children and a wife who did not work .They were buying a large three bed semi detached , he owned a car and went on holiday with the family in the UK.Thete is no way anyone in a similar position as him now could afford to buy a house in York.It is no wonder people are pissed off in today's world of work if they are ordinary Joe's trying to earn a living.
You're making a lot of unwarranted assumptions about lots of people on here. A lot of us are worried about our children and the future of this country and would like to have good government and a good opposition and have said so.
Those who were responsible for Brexit were those who took Britain's membership of the EU and the advantages of the EU for Britain for granted for far too long and forgot to think about - let alone articulate convincingly - the case for both. In that vacuum mountebanks like Farage prospered.
One of the main reasons I - as a relatively well off metropolitan londoner - voted to leave, was the fact that even on 75k aged 31 I felt utterly unable to to start a family. My own living standards - and I say this as someone who's relatively well off (though not compared to some posters on here) - are paltry in comparison to those of my parents at my age.
With 300,000 new people coming to the country each year the simple fact is the infrastructure cannot cope. The salary I earn which would have bought a family home a generation ago barely buys a one bedroom grime pit in london these days. Move to the provinces? I'd be lucky to find a job and if I did my income would be cut by half, probably more.
I genuinely don't know if Brexit will be good or bad for my hypothetical children, but they weighed heavily on my mind as I was casting my vote. All I could think was, maybe things can get worse, but since I am already in a position where I am unable to house, feed and educate a family then I might as well gamble and hope that our nation's collective decision to pull the emergency cord will finally lead to something being done.
For me, it was an all-in shove. And I say this as a well-off middle class professional. I imagine quite a few people worse off than me genuinely did say "well it can't get any worse" and they would be quite right.
If you don't mind me asking, how much were you parents earning at your age, roughly?
Considerably less, adjusted for inflation - but more than enough to afford a three bedroom detached in a leafy suburb.
Dupont-Aignan is at 4.5% in the latest Ifop poll. Data was gathered on 18-20 March, so presumably some was collected before his interview walkout on Saturday evening. Expect his next poll score to be higher. The video of his walkout has had 12 million hits at Facebook.
In tonight's debate among the leading five, it will be interesting to watch how Macron plays his recent conversion to the reintroduction of conscription.
Full details of the new Ifop
Round 1 Le Pen 26% Macron 25% Fillon 18% Hamon 12.5% Melenchon 11.5% Dupont-Aignan 4.5%
What is it with Cyan and Dupont-Aignan? Have you backed him at 1000/1 or something?
Apologies. I thought my obsession might eventually annoy people. I'll try to shut up about him now I've backed him at an average price of around 500. Got some more on today at 700. I could hardly believe he was available at that price after his walkout coup became so big on Facebook, but Betfair isn't lawfully available in France. I've no intention of getting out even if he joins the peloton, so I'm not talking my book - just sharing the fun.
The ICM poll is really disastrous for Labour , and certainly adds to to the mountain of evidence that the present leadership is leading the party to catastrophe. Hopefully Labour will suffer a bloodbath on May 4th – and feel relieved that no election is now likely this year.
@kyf_100 - one of the stranger things about the referendum is that, in my opinion, those working in London and the South East have more to complain about than the provinces. I only work in London because I can live with my parents and commute from Woking, but if that option wasn't available I'd be long gone. At some point, people will begin to vote with their feet.
You're easily in the top 10% of the income distribution. I find it amazing you think you can't afford to start a family.
I can't even afford a 2 bedroom flat.
My well paid media job doesn't exist outside of London, I would be lucky to make 30k anywhere else in the country.
I'll take your word for it on the lack of non London jobs... But at that salary you can definitely afford a 2 bed flat in London. I found 284 properties within 5 miles of London bridge for £350k or less on right move.
If you want a four bedroom with a house... Then yes you're looking at a heavy commute into London from commuter belt.
This debate should be interesting, but I am sceptical it will move much. We tend to see that debates get increasingly diluted in effect, the more people there are. Far harder to identify the real winners and losers.
It's a weird setup, with all the candidates facing each other in a circle, rather than facing out towards the audience like in the UK / US debates.
FPT Casino Royale said; 'But, will these leads hold for another three years?
Next year, and 2019, will be pivotal years. But, even if Labour chuck out Corbyn post-Brexit one wonders whether they can claw this deficit back inside 12 months.
You can't fatten a pig on market day.'
Who knows ? I suspect that if an election were to take place whilst the Tories would win a big majority , its magnitude would fall short of these poll predictions. In practice, massive poll leads have never quite materialised - looking back to 1983 - 1997 - 2001 - or indeed as far back as 1966. Three years before the 2005 election Labour was enjoying poll leads as wide as 23%. Whilst Labour did go on to win in May 2005, its lead in the popular vote was a mere 3%.
They say that you learn more from defeat than victory. But, there is no inkling of greater knowledge in the thoughts of Don Brind, and other Remainers.
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
Since then we had a referendum and the British people voted to leave?
You see the SNP like to ignore democratic mandates.
Telling the reaction that the mere posting of a photo inspires.
GIN's point isn't valid?
So strange that the Remainers have it in for May. Given she was a committed IN campaigner, it should be for us Leavers to be suspicious, but we like to meet halfway in the spirit of unity ☺
Since then we had a referendum and the British people voted to leave?
You see the SNP like to ignore democratic mandates.
Telling the reaction that the mere posting of a photo inspires.
GIN's point isn't valid?
So strange that the Remainers have it in for May. Given she was a committed IN campaigner, it should be for us Leavers to be suspicious, but we like to meet halfway in the spirit of unity ☺
@kyf_100 - one of the stranger things about the referendum is that, in my opinion, those working in London and the South East have more to complain about than the provinces. I only work in London because I can live with my parents and commute from Woking, but if that option wasn't available I'd be long gone. At some point, people will begin to vote with their feet.
I have always thought how does London keep going .As the place needs all the ordinary jobs doing .Where do all the nurses postal workers cleaners poliice fire service etc live or afford to travel in ?
@kyf_100 - one of the stranger things about the referendum is that, in my opinion, those working in London and the South East have more to complain about than the provinces. I only work in London because I can live with my parents and commute from Woking, but if that option wasn't available I'd be long gone. At some point, people will begin to vote with their feet.
I have always thought how does London keep going .As the place needs all the ordinary jobs doing .Where do all the nurses postal workers cleaners poliice fire service etc live or afford to travel in ?
London accounts for a quarter of the UK's housing benefit bill.
It's fairly easy to rent a one bed flat for £1,000 a month in a reasonable suburb in London. The issue is starting a family and buying a property.
Only the pretty well off and the benefits class can afford a family. Mr and Mrs Average in the middle are stuffed.
Miliband was right with the squeezed middle, but failed to acknowledge both sides of the squeeze.
The ICM poll is really disastrous for Labour , and certainly adds to to the mountain of evidence that the present leadership is leading the party to catastrophe. Hopefully Labour will suffer a bloodbath on May 4th – and feel relieved that no election is now likely this year.
Although there isn't much for Labour to lose in these elections, and they are likely to dominate the City Mayoralties. Labour will limit damage through PR too. They are already decimated in Scotland and the Shires, so won't matter to them.
Next year, 2018, will be the big one for them - lots of local elections where Labour are in charge or there are marginals. Time will tell.
They say that you learn more from defeat than victory. But, there is no inkling of greater knowledge in the thoughts of Don Brind, and other Remainers.
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
I doubt that Brexit is going to good for the people you are talking about. We will see in about five years or so though i guess.
They say that you learn more from defeat than victory. But, there is no inkling of greater knowledge in the thoughts of Don Brind, and other Remainers.
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
I do wonder how much the much vaunted EU regional funding actually reached where it was meant to go and how much instead went to quangocrats in Cardiff, Bristol, Newcastle etc.
Early signs Nicola may have made a big misjudged of the mood.
I cannot remember when a UK PM was more popular than any Scots leader
Good job or Favourability?
More than 2,000 Scots said that TM and Ruth were doing a good job
Just featured on Sky news from Scotland
Ta.
I think Ruth is doing a Good Job as Leader of SCons, but I am not favourable towards her.
Do you thing Ruth Davidson who said voting No to Indy was the best way to guarantee EU membership, campaigned for Remain and said that staying in the single market was vital is doing a good job of pretending this didn't happen?
One of the main reasons I - as a relatively well off metropolitan londoner - voted to leave, was the fact that even on 75k aged 31 I felt utterly unable to to start a family. My own living standards - and I say this as someone who's relatively well off (though not compared to some posters on here) - are paltry in comparison to those of my parents at my age.
With 300,000 new people coming to the country each year the simple fact is the infrastructure cannot cope. The salary I earn which would have bought a family home a generation ago barely buys a one bedroom grime pit in london these days. Move to the provinces? I'd be lucky to find a job and if I did my income would be cut by half, probably more.
I genuinely don't know if Brexit will be good or bad for my hypothetical children, but they weighed heavily on my mind as I was casting my vote. All I could think was, maybe things can get worse, but since I am already in a position where I am unable to house, feed and educate a family then I might as well gamble and hope that our nation's collective decision to pull the emergency cord will finally lead to something being done.
For me, it was an all-in shove. And I say this as a well-off middle class professional. I imagine quite a few people worse off than me genuinely did say "well it can't get any worse" and they would be quite right.
Lots of people, every day, commute to London from places like Tonbridge, High Wycombe, Hemel Hemstead etc. Places with good schools etc where you can quite easily buy a three bedroom semi and bring up a family on a single London income. You can easily borrow £300k plus on a single income of £75k per annum. You could buy a big 2 bed flat in one of these places with a 10k deposit on a 95% LTV mortgage which is what, 2 months wages? even if you have loads of other debt, you could still get a mortgage. Unless you have bad credit, ccj's etc. I am earning significanntly less than half of your income (in the very outer London commuter belt), and manage to bring up a family and i'd say we're probably in the wealthiest 20% of people in the town where we live. Some people did vote leave out of economic desperation and I fully sympathise with them, but not with you. To try and be polite as possible I think you need to think your position through a bit more and look in to your options.
Jon Craig - Sky - said that the journalist had been in the corridor where the labour party were holding their meeting. Everyone in the corridor could hear them shouting at each other, Mr Watson apparently had a face like thunder, at one point the MPs rounded on Corbyn, Ian Austin told him to look in the mirror, Wes Streeting said he was leading the party off a cliff, Emily Thornberry shouted at Sweeting to calm down, Pat McFadden told the leader he was useless, Lord Watson told Seamus Milne he was a disgrace and one official said the mood in the meeting was brutal and not prettty.
Mandleson came out and said the atmosphere was like 1985 when militant tendency where attempting a takeover, Neil Kinnock came out and said it was worse than that.
They say that you learn more from defeat than victory. But, there is no inkling of greater knowledge in the thoughts of Don Brind, and other Remainers.
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
I assume that you therefore believe there will be a lot less poor people once we leave the EU. I watch with interest.
Likely voters Place of Birth - Yes/No Scotland:52/48 England: 24/76 Other: 25/75
Latest PanelBase poll Likely voters Place of Birth - Yes/No Scotland - 45/55 England - 27/73 Other - 50/50
Yes Lead 2014/2017 Scotland: +4/-10 England: -52/-46 Other: -50/0
That is a big old swing away from Yes in the Scotland sample, a small swing towards Yes amongst English born and an huuuuge swing to Yes in the small Other category.
Other goes from making up 3.5% of the Yes vote in 2014 to 8.6% now.
The SNP's challenge is to get the Scotland Category back to 52/48. If the could the most recent Panelbase goes from 44/56 to 50/50
Lots of people, every day, commute to London from places like Tonbridge, High Wycombe, Hemel Hemstead etc. Places with good schools etc where you can quite easily buy a three bedroom semi and bring up a family on a single London income. You can easily borrow £300k plus on a single income of £75k per annum. You could buy a big 2 bed flat in one of these places with a 10k deposit on a 95% LTV mortgage which is what, 2 months wages? even if you have loads of other debt, you could still get a mortgage. Unless you have bad credit, ccj's etc. I am earning significanntly less than half of your income (in the very outer London commuter belt), and manage to bring up a family and i'd say we're probably in the wealthiest 20% of people in the town where we live. Some people did vote leave out of economic desperation and I fully sympathise with them, but not with you. To try and be polite as possible I think you need to think your position through a bit more and look in to your options.
My options are as follows:
1. To accept that my children will never have the quality of life I enjoyed, the education I received, or the security that I had (what happens to all those single income families with huge mortgages in dormitory towns when the housing bubble / economy goes pop, anyway?).
2. To not have kids.
Just as at the ballot box in the referendum I had two options:
1. A lever that said "everything is fine, carry on as normal"
2. A lever that said "everything is not fine, do something, do anything, the whole system is broken".
I have thought my position through quite a lot in recent months and indeed years and I stand my my decision on both counts.
To be as polite as possible, I do not want your sympathy. I voted for change.
Hearing some of the economics regarding mortgages, salary and also hearing how much my mate pays in childcare costs - the return to interest rate normality is going to be very very painful for alot of people.
Early signs Nicola may have made a big misjudged of the mood.
I cannot remember when a UK PM was more popular than any Scots leader
Good job or Favourability?
More than 2,000 Scots said that TM and Ruth were doing a good job
Just featured on Sky news from Scotland
Ta.
I think Ruth is doing a Good Job as Leader of SCons, but I am not favourable towards her.
Do you thing Ruth Davidson who said voting No to Indy was the best way to guarantee EU membership, campaigned for Remain and said that staying in the single market was vital is doing a good job of pretending this didn't happen?
Err, yeah, I guess so.
While all her former work colleagues and friends in the media studiously fail to ask her any questions about her contradictory positions or her chutzpath laden attempt to take credit for opposition to Named Person when she ordered her party to abstain she will continue to do a good job.
Presumably that's a different Lutfur Rahman to the one that's banned from office until 2021... though how many people by that name can there be...
I went to the Collombe d'Or in St Paul de Vence last Thursday and some one said several Manchester Councillors were there having been to Cannes to study ideas for the Northern Powerhouse. I'd like to believe it but it sounded a bit far fetched even for councillors (though there was a large table of English men)
The most interesting thing about today's debate, not one Tory criticised George Osborne.
They know Ozzy is going to be leader, possibly in the very near future.
Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the George; He is trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored; He hath loosed the fateful lightning of His terrible swift sword: His brilliance is marching on.
He's depriving FIVE people of potential livelihoods!
Early signs Nicola may have made a big misjudged of the mood.
I cannot remember when a UK PM was more popular than any Scots leader
Well clearly she isn't or Ruth would now be First Minister.
The fact is that this is the first Scots only poll that I have seen in decades that puts the UK PM and the Scots opposition leader ahead of the first minister
They say that you learn more from defeat than victory. But, there is no inkling of greater knowledge in the thoughts of Don Brind, and other Remainers.
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
I doubt that Brexit is going to good for the people you are talking about. We will see in about five years or so though i guess.
The big losers in this will ultimately be the London businesses and BTL landlords who can only make their money with the existence of a european servant class.
Pret A Manger pay £16k a year - in London. No wonder 65% of their staff are 'skilled' european sandwich makers and kettle boilers.
What Londoner could build a family and get a home on that money?
They say that you learn more from defeat than victory. But, there is no inkling of greater knowledge in the thoughts of Don Brind, and other Remainers.
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
I assume that you therefore believe there will be a lot less poor people once we leave the EU. I watch with interest.
I am not making any predictions. I am explaining to Don Brind why Remain lost.
It is indicative of the mood of the Remainers that they don't say, "the EU failed, let me tell you how it can be reformed to do a better job."
They just say, "Things will be worse under Brexit.".
@kyf_100 - one of the stranger things about the referendum is that, in my opinion, those working in London and the South East have more to complain about than the provinces. I only work in London because I can live with my parents and commute from Woking, but if that option wasn't available I'd be long gone. At some point, people will begin to vote with their feet.
I have always thought how does London keep going .As the place needs all the ordinary jobs doing .Where do all the nurses postal workers cleaners poliice fire service etc live or afford to travel in ?
London accounts for a quarter of the UK's housing benefit bill.
It's fairly easy to rent a one bed flat for £1,000 a month in a reasonable suburb in London. The issue is starting a family and buying a property.
Only the pretty well off and the benefits class can afford a family. Mr and Mrs Average in the middle are stuffed.
Miliband was right with the squeezed middle, but failed to acknowledge both sides of the squeeze.
As you say there aren't many areas in London where you can still find a lot of lower-middle class families.
Lots of people, every day, commute to London from places like Tonbridge, High Wycombe, Hemel Hemstead etc. Places with good schools etc where you can quite easily buy a three bedroom semi and bring up a family on a single London income. You can easily borrow £300k plus on a single income of £75k per annum. You could buy a big 2 bed flat in one of these places with a 10k deposit on a 95% LTV mortgage which is what, 2 months wages? even if you have loads of other debt, you could still get a mortgage. Unless you have bad credit, ccj's etc. I am earning significanntly less than half of your income (in the very outer London commuter belt), and manage to bring up a family and i'd say we're probably in the wealthiest 20% of people in the town where we live. Some people did vote leave out of economic desperation and I fully sympathise with them, but not with you. To try and be polite as possible I think you need to think your position through a bit more and look in to your options.
My options are as follows:
1. To accept that my children will never have the quality of life I enjoyed, the education I received, or the security that I had (what happens to all those single income families with huge mortgages in dormitory towns when the housing bubble / economy goes pop, anyway?).
2. To not have kids.
Just as at the ballot box in the referendum I had two options:
1. A lever that said "everything is fine, carry on as normal"
2. A lever that said "everything is not fine, do something, do anything, the whole system is broken".
I have thought my position through quite a lot in recent months and indeed years and I stand my my decision on both counts.
To be as polite as possible, I do not want your sympathy. I voted for change.
I hate to tell you but anyone who has kids takes a hit to their financial well being
but you get lots of benefits in other ways
just have em and let Alistair Meeks pay for them in higher taxes :-)
Early signs Nicola may have made a big misjudged of the mood.
I cannot remember when a UK PM was more popular than any Scots leader
Good job or Favourability?
More than 2,000 Scots said that TM and Ruth were doing a good job
Just featured on Sky news from Scotland
Ta.
I think Ruth is doing a Good Job as Leader of SCons, but I am not favourable towards her.
Do you thing Ruth Davidson who said voting No to Indy was the best way to guarantee EU membership, campaigned for Remain and said that staying in the single market was vital is doing a good job of pretending this didn't happen?
Err, yeah, I guess so.
As a bettor you should know she was right on a probability adjusted basis
Jon Craig - Sky - said that the journalist had been in the corridor where the labour party were holding their meeting. Everyone in the corridor could hear them shouting at each other, Mr Watson apparently had a face like thunder, at one point the MPs rounded on Corbyn, Ian Austin told him to look in the mirror, Wes Streeting said he was leading the party off a cliff, Emily Thornberry shouted at Sweeting to calm down, Pat McFadden told the leader he was useless, Lord Watson told Seamus Milne he was a disgrace and one official said the mood in the meeting was brutal and not prettty.
Mandleson came out and said the atmosphere was like 1985 when militant tendency where attempting a takeover, Neil Kinnock came out and said it was worse than that.
Complete breakup of labour must be coming
This is not even news. They will all just fight each other to the death to get control of the labour party. For the Corbynites a party with 50 MP's is preferable to being expelled and having no parliamentary platform. The moderates and right wing element of the party have too much tribal loyalty to the labour party brand to split or create a new party. It is just a battle of mutually assured destruction.
Hearing some of the economics regarding mortgages, salary and also hearing how much my mate pays in childcare costs - the return to interest rate normality is going to be very very painful for alot of people.
They say that you learn more from defeat than victory. But, there is no inkling of greater knowledge in the thoughts of Don Brind, and other Remainers.
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
I do wonder how much the much vaunted EU regional funding actually reached where it was meant to go and how much instead went to quangocrats in Cardiff, Bristol, Newcastle etc.
I could tell you. The net EU subsidy for Welsh citizens is £79 p.a. Call it eighty quid a year. It's not a lot. As stated, a good deal of the funding went to bodies who know how to play the grant game - e.g. Cardiff and Swansea universities.
You're easily in the top 10% of the income distribution. I find it amazing you think you can't afford to start a family.
I can't even afford a 2 bedroom flat.
My well paid media job doesn't exist outside of London, I would be lucky to make 30k anywhere else in the country.
I'll take your word for it on the lack of non London jobs... But at that salary you can definitely afford a 2 bed flat in London. I found 284 properties within 5 miles of London bridge for £350k or less on right move.
If you want a four bedroom with a house... Then yes you're looking at a heavy commute into London from commuter belt.
Reading to Paddington (~40 miles) takes 25-30 mins., i.e. same as a tube journey Paddington to Liverpool St. I'd start looking at nationalrail.co.uk for commute times and find out if season ticket holders can use these express trains. I assume they can.
Jon Craig - Sky - said that the journalist had been in the corridor where the labour party were holding their meeting. Everyone in the corridor could hear them shouting at each other, Mr Watson apparently had a face like thunder, at one point the MPs rounded on Corbyn, Ian Austin told him to look in the mirror, Wes Streeting said he was leading the party off a cliff, Emily Thornberry shouted at Sweeting to calm down, Pat McFadden told the leader he was useless, Lord Watson told Seamus Milne he was a disgrace and one official said the mood in the meeting was brutal and not prettty.
Mandleson came out and said the atmosphere was like 1985 when militant tendency where attempting a takeover, Neil Kinnock came out and said it was worse than that.
Complete breakup of labour must be coming
This is not even news. They will all just fight each other to the death to get control of the labour party. For the Corbynites a party with 50 MP's is preferable to being expelled and having no parliamentary platform. The moderates and right wing element of the party have too much tribal loyalty to the labour party brand to split or create a new party. It is just a battle of mutually assured destruction.
It is news when it is a report of tonight's meeting in the HOC
@kyf_100 - one of the stranger things about the referendum is that, in my opinion, those working in London and the South East have more to complain about than the provinces. I only work in London because I can live with my parents and commute from Woking, but if that option wasn't available I'd be long gone. At some point, people will begin to vote with their feet.
I have always thought how does London keep going .As the place needs all the ordinary jobs doing .Where do all the nurses postal workers cleaners poliice fire service etc live or afford to travel in ?
London accounts for a quarter of the UK's housing benefit bill.
It's fairly easy to rent a one bed flat for £1,000 a month in a reasonable suburb in London. The issue is starting a family and buying a property.
Only the pretty well off and the benefits class can afford a family. Mr and Mrs Average in the middle are stuffed.
Miliband was right with the squeezed middle, but failed to acknowledge both sides of the squeeze.
As you say there aren't many areas in London where you can still find a lot of lower-middle class families.
Bexley, Bromley, Newham, Enfield, Havering, Redbridge, Croydon, Waltham Forest, Sutton, Hillingdon there are a few but all in Outer London. Everyone else moves to Kent, Essex, Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Hertfordshire etc if they want to start a family
You're easily in the top 10% of the income distribution. I find it amazing you think you can't afford to start a family.
I can't even afford a 2 bedroom flat.
My well paid media job doesn't exist outside of London, I would be lucky to make 30k anywhere else in the country.
I'll take your word for it on the lack of non London jobs... But at that salary you can definitely afford a 2 bed flat in London. I found 284 properties within 5 miles of London bridge for £350k or less on right move.
If you want a four bedroom with a house... Then yes you're looking at a heavy commute into London from commuter belt.
Reading to Paddington (~40 miles) takes 25-30 mins., i.e. same as a tube journey Paddington to Liverpool St. I'd start looking at nationalrail.co.uk for commute times and find out if season ticket holders can use these express trains. I assume they can.
Yes, since GWR is the only company providing services on the... Great Western.
The average mortgage repayment hasn't really changed despite falling rates. Bear that in mind for the obvious collorary when rates rise.
Are you referring to the whole economy or individually?
I would also say that we should factor in fixes.
I took a re-mortgage deal in July 2008 - silly me. I sat on an expensive fix for a while, but then took a big cut on my payments (20%) and would expect to get in again before the upward spiral which must surely come soon.
They say that you learn more from defeat than victory. But, there is no inkling of greater knowledge in the thoughts of Don Brind, and other Remainers.
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
I do wonder how much the much vaunted EU regional funding actually reached where it was meant to go and how much instead went to quangocrats in Cardiff, Bristol, Newcastle etc.
I could tell you. The net EU subsidy for Welsh citizens is £79 p.a. Call it eighty quid a year. It's not a lot. As stated, a good deal of the funding went to bodies who know how to play the grant game - e.g. Cardiff and Swansea universities.
After receiving Objective 1 funding for West Wales and the Valleys, the Welsh politicians spent £6 billion on regeneration of West Wales and the Valleys
... and, incredibly, at the end, the GDP per head of population had gone down. They spent all that Objective 1 money, and West Wales and the Valleys became poorer.
A lot of the money was wasted, some lost in fraud (see e.g., AWEMA).
You're easily in the top 10% of the income distribution. I find it amazing you think you can't afford to start a family.
I can't even afford a 2 bedroom flat.
My well paid media job doesn't exist outside of London, I would be lucky to make 30k anywhere else in the country.
I'll take your word for it on the lack of non London jobs... But at that salary you can definitely afford a 2 bed flat in London. I found 284 properties within 5 miles of London bridge for £350k or less on right move.
If you want a four bedroom with a house... Then yes you're looking at a heavy commute into London from commuter belt.
Reading to Paddington (~40 miles) takes 25-30 mins., i.e. same as a tube journey Paddington to Liverpool St. I'd start looking at nationalrail.co.uk for commute times and find out if season ticket holders can use these express trains. I assume they can.
They can, but the Intercity 125 was not designed for such purposes so I understand that it's not much fun. Furthermore, property prices on the Crossrail route has been going up a lot in the Thames Valley. It feels like Essex is the final frontier and the lines into Liverpool Street and Fenchurch Street are the ones with the highest passenger growth at the moment.
They say that you learn more from defeat than victory. But, there is no inkling of greater knowledge in the thoughts of Don Brind, and other Remainers.
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
I do wonder how much the much vaunted EU regional funding actually reached where it was meant to go and how much instead went to quangocrats in Cardiff, Bristol, Newcastle etc.
Compared to domestic public spending, EU funding is peanuts in poorer areas of the UK.
That Sky News report on the Scottish poll suggests that Nicola has seriously overreached with her demands regarding a future referendum. The journos who reported how she'd ambushed May etc etc also have egg on face. Adam Boulton in yesterday's Sunday Times was claiming Nicola had "comprehensively outplayed" May on the referendum. Maybe not eh Adam?
Melenchon has a lot more passion than Hamon in his way of speaking. If I was hesitating between the two, Melenchon would be more persuasive based on this.
So far i've found MLP to be coming across as if she is irritated. Not sure it's a good look. Her and Melenchon seem to be having the most heated direct exchanges so far - could risk freezing the centrist candidates out somewhat.
I couldn't agree more with Don. The lost years of the Osborne/Cameron government directly led to the despair that led to Brexit. Now, of course, it is going to get far, far worse for those on the poverty-line as Brexit destroys our already fragile economy. I expect to see the country fall even further behind over the next twenty years. It's very very sad but when my kids leave school over the next decade I may well encourage them to go abroad. This country is in serious, serious trouble. The posters on here will be fine of course. You can continue your conversations about the best way to invest your piles of cash. One of the great truisms of life is that the rich never suffer, and most of the posters on here are rich. But its you and people like you who will be responsible, along with the self-indulgent rich left-wingers who have kept Corbyn in. Oh for a viable moderate government. Strap yourselves in, it's going to be a rough ride.
You sound depressed, and you sound - to be honest - like you need cheering up.
I'm drinking an extremely fine Barolo. £60 a bottle. And it is genuinely delicious. So somewhere out there people are enjoying themselves. Remember that thought, and hold on to it. Life goes on. And it's not all bad.
It feels like Labour MPs are starting to give up their vow of silence against Corbyn. Either out of frustration or a realisation that it hasn't had led to any significant shift amongst members.
Le Pen is absolutely smashing it on immigration. Macron could only answer in terms of what "we" the EU should do (oh dear); Fillon said he was for quotas in the constitution (yawn); and Mélenchon was awful, claiming that all migrants are forced migrants, that France doesn't take as many as Germany and Sweden, and that they should all be welcomed - and something about climate change migrants (for goodness sake!).
Le Pen is absolutely smashing it on immigration. Macron could only answer in terms of what "we" the EU should do (oh dear); Fillon said he was for quotas in the constitution (yawn); and Mélenchon was awful, claiming that all migrants are forced migrants, that France doesn't take as many as Germany and Sweden, and that they should all be welcomed - and something about climate change migrants (for goodness sake!).
That Sky News report on the Scottish poll suggests that Nicola has seriously overreached with her demands regarding a future referendum. The journos who reported how she'd ambushed May etc etc also have egg on face. Adam Boulton in yesterday's Sunday Times was claiming Nicola had "comprehensively outplayed" May on the referendum. Maybe not eh Adam?
Scotland is slowly polarising into the SNP v the Tories.
The latest panelbase has both 55+ and ABC1 - the people most likely to vote - nearly neck and neck. . The Tories are ahead with Leavers.
Obviously, there will be no-go areas for the Tory vote - the East Ham's and Bootle's of Scotland, but it looks competitive beyond.
I wonder what Scotland's VI (excl Glasgow) looks like?
It feels like Labour MPs are starting to give up their vow of silence against Corbyn. Either out of frustration or a realisation that it hasn't had led to any significant shift amongst members.
Those figures are highly suspect though. They might all be from Scottish Tories or something.
After all, where else in Scotland are you likely to find 320 people who think Corbyn is doing a good job?
They can, but the Intercity 125 was not designed for such purposes so I understand that it's not much fun. Furthermore, property prices on the Crossrail route has been going up a lot in the Thames Valley. It feels like Essex is the final frontier and the lines into Liverpool Street and Fenchurch Street are the ones with the highest passenger growth at the moment.
Different line but I have friends who commute in who have lost their jobs due to Southern Fail and I knew a few who only hung on by the skin of their teeth.
I also have friends who live on the outskirts of London my age and on my salary and who are bringing up their kids in a tiny two bed shoebox and spending every penny they earn on childcare.
My point was never 'poor me, I can't afford kids', it was simply to point out that my parents were on much more modest salaries and afforded me a better standard of living than I ever could for my own kids, as expressed by others here, those of us in the middle are "just about managing" and see the system as broken. Those on lower salaries must surely be in a far worse spot and therefore truly have nothing to lose.
Publicly no-one in my industry will own up to voting leave but privately many have expressed those sentiments to me.
While I find a ten quid bottle of wine to be 99% as good as most sixty quid ones, there is more to living than "just about managing".
Jon Craig - Sky - said that the journalist had been in the corridor where the labour party were holding their meeting. Everyone in the corridor could hear them shouting at each other, Mr Watson apparently had a face like thunder, at one point the MPs rounded on Corbyn, Ian Austin told him to look in the mirror, Wes Streeting said he was leading the party off a cliff, Emily Thornberry shouted at Sweeting to calm down, Pat McFadden told the leader he was useless, Lord Watson told Seamus Milne he was a disgrace and one official said the mood in the meeting was brutal and not prettty.
Mandleson came out and said the atmosphere was like 1985 when militant tendency where attempting a takeover, Neil Kinnock came out and said it was worse than that.
Complete breakup of labour must be coming
This is not even news. They will all just fight each other to the death to get control of the labour party. For the Corbynites a party with 50 MP's is preferable to being expelled and having no parliamentary platform. The moderates and right wing element of the party have too much tribal loyalty to the labour party brand to split or create a new party. It is just a battle of mutually assured destruction.
Here's a Brighton and Hove Councillor who seems to be lacking in tribal loyalty:
Lots of people, every day, commute to London from places like Tonbridge, High Wycombe, Hemel Hemstead etc. Places with good schools etc where you can quite easily buy a three bedroom semi and bring up a family on a single London income. You can easily borrow £300k plus on a single income of £75k per annum. You could buy a big 2 bed flat in one of these places with a 10k deposit on a 95% LTV mortgage which is what, 2 months wages? even if you have loads of other debt, you could still get a mortgage. Unless you have bad credit, ccj's etc. I am earning significanntly less than half of your income (in the very outer London commuter belt), and manage to bring up a family and i'd say we're probably in the wealthiest 20% of people in the town where we live. Some people did vote leave out of economic desperation and I fully sympathise with them, but not with you. To try and be polite as possible I think you need to think your position through a bit more and look in to your options.
My options are as follows:
1. To accept that my children will never have the quality of life I enjoyed, the education I received, or the security that I had (what happens to all those single income families with huge mortgages in dormitory towns when the housing bubble / economy goes pop, anyway?).
2. To not have kids.
Just as at the ballot box in the referendum I had two options:
1. A lever that said "everything is fine, carry on as normal"
2. A lever that said "everything is not fine, do something, do anything, the whole system is broken".
I have thought my position through quite a lot in recent months and indeed years and I stand my my decision on both counts.
To be as polite as possible, I do not want your sympathy. I voted for change.
On a scale of 1-10 how much confidence do you have that Theresa May and co are actually going to deliver what you voted for? Because it rather looks to me like - once the shock treatment to the economy is completed - the independently wealthy will do well out of Brexit, the intellectual middle classes (Academic, cultural industries etc) will lose drastically from severence of ties with the EU, the trend towards the hollowing out of the middle class due to automation will continue unabated, the poor will be completely screwed with the removal of what social protections they had, and politically we will have some sort of authoritarian rule where no dissent will be tolerated. So basically you just voted to give a blank cheque to the tories to rewrite the constitution in a way that suits themselves.
They say that you learn more from defeat than victory. But, there is no inkling of greater knowledge in the thoughts of Don Brind, and other Remainers.
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
I do wonder how much the much vaunted EU regional funding actually reached where it was meant to go and how much instead went to quangocrats in Cardiff, Bristol, Newcastle etc.
Compared to domestic public spending, EU funding is peanuts in poorer areas of the UK.
Certainly but that doesn't stop the EU having their logo and boasts about funding provided on big boards by development sites around the country.
And its interesting how many people are panicky about the loss of EU handouts - I suspect they benefit rather more than the average local.
Early signs Nicola may have made a big misjudged of the mood.
I cannot remember when a UK PM was more popular than any Scots leader
Good job or Favourability?
More than 2,000 Scots said that TM and Ruth were doing a good job
Just featured on Sky news from Scotland
Ta.
I think Ruth is doing a Good Job as Leader of SCons, but I am not favourable towards her.
Do you thing Ruth Davidson who said voting No to Indy was the best way to guarantee EU membership, campaigned for Remain and said that staying in the single market was vital is doing a good job of pretending this didn't happen?
Err, yeah, I guess so.
As a bettor you should know she was right on a probability adjusted basis
Yeah, she (and all the others spouting those lines) was definitely aiming at bettors working on a probability adjusted basis.
@kyf_100 - one of the stranger things about the referendum is that, in my opinion, those working in London and the South East have more to complain about than the provinces. I only work in London because I can live with my parents and commute from Woking, but if that option wasn't available I'd be long gone. At some point, people will begin to vote with their feet.
I have always thought how does London keep going .As the place needs all the ordinary jobs doing .Where do all the nurses postal workers cleaners poliice fire service etc live or afford to travel in ?
London accounts for a quarter of the UK's housing benefit bill.
It's fairly easy to rent a one bed flat for £1,000 a month in a reasonable suburb in London. The issue is starting a family and buying a property.
Only the pretty well off and the benefits class can afford a family. Mr and Mrs Average in the middle are stuffed.
Miliband was right with the squeezed middle, but failed to acknowledge both sides of the squeeze.
As you say there aren't many areas in London where you can still find a lot of lower-middle class families.
Hillingdon Harrow Havering Redbridge Bexley Bromley Sutton Chingford South Croydon
Areas which have a much higher number of Conservative and Leave voters.
Comments
I can empathise with your reasons for being frustrated with the economy and your position in it, but hoping to achieve what would be a brutal financial reset by voting for a geopolitical reset seems naive.
There are a range of little more than a dozen that cover the vast majority of male and female surnames. Females used to have a distinct feminine surname (Nessa, Bibi, Khanom etc) as opposed to males (Ullah, Uddin, Ali, Ahmed etc) though it seems to be dying out a little.
My well paid media job doesn't exist outside of London, I would be lucky to make 30k anywhere else in the country.
And that was in their twenties.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/councillor-in-the-clear-over-attack-claim-891264
If you want a four bedroom with a house... Then yes you're looking at a heavy commute into London from commuter belt.
https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/843885653691678720
It's a weird setup, with all the candidates facing each other in a circle, rather than facing out towards the audience like in the UK / US debates.
The shortlist is made up by 4 Manchester Cllrs and a former Cllr now (soon to be ex) MEP
Cllr Nasrin Ali ( Levenshulme Ward)
Cllr Yasmin Dar (Moston ward)
Cllr Amina Lone (Hulme ward)
Cllr Luthfur Rahman (Longsight Ward)
Afzal Khan (former cllr in Cheetham ward)
Levenshulme and Longsight are in Gorton constituency. Boston and Hulme are in Central constituency. Cheetham is in Blackley and Broughton
Casino Royale said;
'But, will these leads hold for another three years?
Next year, and 2019, will be pivotal years. But, even if Labour chuck out Corbyn post-Brexit one wonders whether they can claw this deficit back inside 12 months.
You can't fatten a pig on market day.'
Who knows ? I suspect that if an election were to take place whilst the Tories would win a big majority , its magnitude would fall short of these poll predictions. In practice, massive poll leads have never quite materialised - looking back to 1983 - 1997 - 2001 - or indeed as far back as 1966.
Three years before the 2005 election Labour was enjoying poll leads as wide as 23%. Whilst Labour did go on to win in May 2005, its lead in the popular vote was a mere 3%.
Early signs Nicola may have made a big misjudged of the mood.
I cannot remember when a UK PM was more popular than any Scots leader
I did well out of the EU. I received substantial grants from them. Others did well out if the EU, mainly middle-class professionals.
But, we were heavily outnumbered by the people who did badly out of the EU, faced increased competition for housing, increased competition for jobs and so on. By and large, these were poor people.
The claim is that Wales did well out of the EU, and so it did in one sense. Funding for an Arts Centre here and there, Swansea University's Bay campus, restoration of heritage sites, and so on. But, there was precious little to improve the life of someone without a job living in a damp terrace in a decaying Valley town. In fact, they saw their factories relocate to Eastern Europe from the Valleys.
Bertolt Brecht could have told Don Brind why Remain lost: "You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
"You've forgotten what an immense number of poor people there are".
Every Remainer should repeat it until they have learnt it.
Imagine the squealing if Boris or Gove were PM!
" I dont aspire to be Mrs Merkel's vice chancellor"
lol
Just featured on Sky news from Scotland
It's fairly easy to rent a one bed flat for £1,000 a month in a reasonable suburb in London. The issue is starting a family and buying a property.
Only the pretty well off and the benefits class can afford a family. Mr and Mrs Average in the middle are stuffed.
Miliband was right with the squeezed middle, but failed to acknowledge both sides of the squeeze.
http://www.france24.com/en/livefeed
Next year, 2018, will be the big one for them - lots of local elections where Labour are in charge or there are marginals. Time will tell.
I think Ruth is doing a Good Job as Leader of SCons, but I am not favourable towards her.
We will see in about five years or so though i guess.
Err, yeah, I guess so.
You can easily borrow £300k plus on a single income of £75k per annum.
You could buy a big 2 bed flat in one of these places with a 10k deposit on a 95% LTV mortgage which is what, 2 months wages? even if you have loads of other debt, you could still get a mortgage. Unless you have bad credit, ccj's etc.
I am earning significanntly less than half of your income (in the very outer London commuter belt), and manage to bring up a family and i'd say we're probably in the wealthiest 20% of people in the town where we live.
Some people did vote leave out of economic desperation and I fully sympathise with them, but not with you. To try and be polite as possible I think you need to think your position through a bit more and look in to your options.
Mandleson came out and said the atmosphere was like 1985 when militant tendency where attempting a takeover, Neil Kinnock came out and said it was worse than that.
Complete breakup of labour must be coming
P/S shall TSE be awarded when he reaches the 50k mark?
Panelbase eve of Poll poll for 2014
Likely voters
Place of Birth - Yes/No
Scotland:52/48
England: 24/76
Other: 25/75
Latest PanelBase poll
Likely voters
Place of Birth - Yes/No
Scotland - 45/55
England - 27/73
Other - 50/50
Yes Lead 2014/2017
Scotland: +4/-10
England: -52/-46
Other: -50/0
That is a big old swing away from Yes in the Scotland sample, a small swing towards Yes amongst English born and an huuuuge swing to Yes in the small Other category.
Other goes from making up 3.5% of the Yes vote in 2014 to 8.6% now.
The SNP's challenge is to get the Scotland Category back to 52/48. If the could the most recent Panelbase goes from 44/56 to 50/50
1. To accept that my children will never have the quality of life I enjoyed, the education I received, or the security that I had (what happens to all those single income families with huge mortgages in dormitory towns when the housing bubble / economy goes pop, anyway?).
2. To not have kids.
Just as at the ballot box in the referendum I had two options:
1. A lever that said "everything is fine, carry on as normal"
2. A lever that said "everything is not fine, do something, do anything, the whole system is broken".
I have thought my position through quite a lot in recent months and indeed years and I stand my my decision on both counts.
To be as polite as possible, I do not want your sympathy. I voted for change.
Pret A Manger pay £16k a year - in London. No wonder 65% of their staff are 'skilled' european sandwich makers and kettle boilers.
What Londoner could build a family and get a home on that money?
It is indicative of the mood of the Remainers that they don't say, "the EU failed, let me tell you how it can be reformed to do a better job."
They just say, "Things will be worse under Brexit.".
but you get lots of benefits in other ways
just have em and let Alistair Meeks pay for them in higher taxes :-)
Is there any single result which is so horrible for Labour that it brings down Corbyn ?
Some possibilities:
Con gain Cardiff
Con gain Cumbria
Con gain Doncaster
Con gain Northumberland
Con gain Tees Valley
Labour lose Durham
Labour losing all ten councils they hold in Wales
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2017
I would also say that we should factor in fixes.
I took a re-mortgage deal in July 2008 - silly me. I sat on an expensive fix for a while, but then took a big cut on my payments (20%) and would expect to get in again before the upward spiral which must surely come soon.
... and, incredibly, at the end, the GDP per head of population had gone down. They spent all that Objective 1 money, and West Wales and the Valleys became poorer.
A lot of the money was wasted, some lost in fraud (see e.g., AWEMA).
So far i've found MLP to be coming across as if she is irritated. Not sure it's a good look. Her and Melenchon seem to be having the most heated direct exchanges so far - could risk freezing the centrist candidates out somewhat.
Fillon and Macron a bit meh so far.
It feels like Labour MPs are starting to give up their vow of silence against Corbyn. Either out of frustration or a realisation that it hasn't had led to any significant shift amongst members.
The latest panelbase has both 55+ and ABC1 - the people most likely to vote - nearly neck and neck. . The Tories are ahead with Leavers.
Obviously, there will be no-go areas for the Tory vote - the East Ham's and Bootle's of Scotland, but it looks competitive beyond.
I wonder what Scotland's VI (excl Glasgow) looks like?
After all, where else in Scotland are you likely to find 320 people who think Corbyn is doing a good job?
I also have friends who live on the outskirts of London my age and on my salary and who are bringing up their kids in a tiny two bed shoebox and spending every penny they earn on childcare.
My point was never 'poor me, I can't afford kids', it was simply to point out that my parents were on much more modest salaries and afforded me a better standard of living than I ever could for my own kids, as expressed by others here, those of us in the middle are "just about managing" and see the system as broken. Those on lower salaries must surely be in a far worse spot and therefore truly have nothing to lose.
Publicly no-one in my industry will own up to voting leave but privately many have expressed those sentiments to me.
While I find a ten quid bottle of wine to be 99% as good as most sixty quid ones, there is more to living than "just about managing".
O reason not the need, and all that.
https://youtu.be/yn4IpyVViw4
http://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2017/03/20/brighton-and-hove-councillor-resigns-from-labour-party/
Because it rather looks to me like - once the shock treatment to the economy is completed - the independently wealthy will do well out of Brexit, the intellectual middle classes (Academic, cultural industries etc) will lose drastically from severence of ties with the EU, the trend towards the hollowing out of the middle class due to automation will continue unabated, the poor will be completely screwed with the removal of what social protections they had, and politically we will have some sort of authoritarian rule where no dissent will be tolerated.
So basically you just voted to give a blank cheque to the tories to rewrite the constitution in a way that suits themselves.
And its interesting how many people are panicky about the loss of EU handouts - I suspect they benefit rather more than the average local.
Harrow
Havering
Redbridge
Bexley
Bromley
Sutton
Chingford
South Croydon
Areas which have a much higher number of Conservative and Leave voters.