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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: SCOTLAND SPECIAL+ more on Northern Ireland)
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Similarly on the EU 'we found that on some of the measures [on Euroscepticism] the attitudes of Scots and those living in England and Wales was indistinguishable...Scots have always been as Eurosceptic as voters in England and in Wales"
"The fact that Scots are Eurosceptic comes as no surprise at all"
So unless you have data, a bit less of this 'Scotland and rUK are drifting apart' - its what the SNP would like you to believe - but its not true....
If European Union membership is the reason for a referendum, what is the point of holding one if the plan isn’t go back in?
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sturgeon-s-grounds-for-a-new-referendum-have-given-way-beneath-her-xdqzj65wm
Remember that "Once in a lifetime" was less than three years ago.
Nicola Sturgeon's referendum plans were rapidly unravelling last night as it emerged she is to abandon the SNP's policy of rejoining the EU immediately amid record Euroscepticism in Scotland.
Just a day after the Scottish First Minister demanded a second vote on independence, senior Nationalist sources told reporters Ms Sturgeon would instead try to join the European Free Trade Association, whose members include Norway and Iceland.
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/sturgeon-abandons-plan-for-scotland-to-stay-in-eu-35536090.html
And if they hadn't it would have been 'intransigence and lack of flexibility - bad for BREXIT negotiations...'
News organisations aren't fond of 'government controversy taken out and shot' stories....
A separate Scotland would face years outside the EU single market, it has emerged after Iceland warned it could not start applying to join the European Free Trade Association until it is independent.
Gudlaugur Thor Thordarson, the Icelandic Foreign Minister, said only sovereign states can be considered for membership under the organisation’s rules.
He said this “complicates matters” for Scotland if it were to seek entry any earlier, for example, the period between a Yes vote in a referendum and the point at which it actually left the United Kingdom.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/16/iceland-scotland-could-not-start-applying-efta-independence/
But, but, but, a Spanish MEP.....
wee Mrs McTurnip was sounding a bit shrill this week
Gerry sues the Beeb, maybe he can use Jezza as a character witness
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/adams-suing-bbc-over-claims-he-sanctioned-killing-35536069.html
A thoughtful opposition would have offered unequivocal support for the NI rise and split the Tories. Luckily we don't have a thoughtful Opposition, although with all that's to come in the next couple of years having some decent politicians holding their feet to the fire should be welcomed. Hopefully this is a wake up to the PM call not to be complacent.
Thanks in particular to @Pulpstar and @rcs1000 for putting me onto the Dutch opportunity.
The SNP have decided yet again to put their domestic obligations as a Government on hold in favour of concentrating on the UK Brexit last July in the hope that it would push a Yes vote over the line in the polls. And they have thrown everything including the kitchen sink of Sturgeon's personal reputation as a politician in a bid to drive a grudge and grievance wedge between the rest of the UK and Scotland over the last eight months. They failed, and more importantly, they forgot that the loss of their majority at Holyrood was a clear message from the Scottish electorate that it was now time to get on with the day job of focusing on the economy and running public services.
When Scotland voted in the Holyrood election last year, we were in no doubt that we were facing an EU Referendum just two months later. And yet the SNP led by new Leader Nicola Sturgeon still failed to retain the majority the party had achieved in 2011. How quickly we forget that the whole campaign that delivered that result ended up being framed around the need to provide a strong opposition to hold the SNP Government to account on both constitutional and domestic issues.
And while Scotland saw a huge increase in political engagement during that last two year Indepedence campaign, be in no doubt about just how incredible nasty and divisive the campaign was towards the end, pitting family and friends against each other. The EU Referendum campaign or result never came close to matching that or Nicola Sturgeon's hysterical rhetoric in the aftermath because the ties to the Union still remain far stronger than those to the EU we only joined four decades ago. And another key point, Scotland has its first local elections in six years this May because this is the first time we could fit them in seperately!! The whole country is facing activist/voter fatigue!
£500 million a year is a bagatelle in comparison. And we all knew that the populist right of the Conservative party is unappeasable, didn't we? Rather than constantly paying them Danegeld, Theresa May should have called an early election and given herself the space to govern as she thinks fit.
So her second worst mistake, stilll remediable, is not to have called a general election yet.
That said, hopefully we'll see Osborne and Gove back on the front benches after they've served their penance - they're too talented to be permanently exiled.
(1) The main centre-right party always seems to be slightly under-estimated in polls. (See also the Conservatives, and the PP).
(2) If a party has consistently underperformed its poll scores, it is likely to do so again.
(3) There is no overarching narrative. Each country and election is different.
Edit to add: bleached, swept back, blonde hair looks weird and does not add to your appeal to voters.
Well, he'd know all about that......
OGH Trump of Bedford Town
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Napoleon_of_Notting_Hill
If Tezza has to call a General Election because the Tory majority is "illegal", does that mean triggering Article 50 is "not in compliance with our constitutional requirements" ?
@MichaelLCrick: Conservative registered treasurer Simon Day referred to Met Police over whether he "knowingly or recklessly" made a false declaration
By the way, these potential cases against Conservative MPs make it harder for Theresa May to orchestrate an early general election. She wouldn't want candidates who were subsequently going to be disqualified from office but she won't know what's happening to them until the investigation is concluded.
Wilders has advanced, though not as far as polls or the concerned commentariat suggested, as have the Greens.
The furthest right and the furthest left? Therefore, some evidence of growing polarisation within the Netherlands?
Nope, can't think of one.
The latest crisis facing the SNP Government.
The Herald - Care homes face crisis due to chronic underfunding and dozens could close
Twitter
David Clegg@davieclegg Mar 14
Meanwhile, back to the SNP's "top priority".
John Swinney's local high school is asking the parents to teach maths.
Former Scottish Labour Leader Iain Gray...
Iain Gray@IainGrayMSP Mar 14
Iain Gray Retweeted David Clegg
Dear John, it's 30 years since I taught maths, but, hate to see you stuck, & you have that indyref2 on your mind, you've got my number.....
I think the clearest sign in all of this was a rejection of traditional left wing politics (both PvdA and Socialists down).
I suspect that if you looked at the way in which English people and those in other parts of Europe view key issues there would be a large degree of agreement, too. But in this day and age, small differences matter. Why? Because our political leaderships find it easier to focus on, and emphasise, these. Who can forget the Tory electoral campaign of 2015, which essentially revolved around telling English voters that if they were not careful appalling Scots would be ruling over them.
Gets us to 71 seats, so 4 more needed from somewhere.
Seems like a lot of MPs will plead dumb over this stuff, so it's the reckless requirement they'll be vulnerable under.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/842161838741696513
I look forward to Wee Patrick's speech...
"We bitterly oppose the Tories removing Scotland from the EU against our will, so we will wholeheartedly support the SNP stance to not be members instead"
The rules established by Parliament for political parties and their finances are there to ensure transparency and accountability.
Where the rules are not followed, it undermines voters’ confidence in our democratic processes, which is why political parties need to take their responsibilities under the legislation seriously."
Incompetence or worse?
https://www.facebook.com/TheRawStory/videos/10154338097642235/