Prof John Curtice, the elections expert who oversaw the survey, said those trends still showed ambivalence among yes voters towards Europe. Some could vote to stay in the UK rather than have independence in the EU, he said, while others might not take part.
“There is a risk that linking independence closely to the idea of staying in the EU could alienate some of those who currently back leaving the UK,” Curtice said.
Jim Sillars, a former SNP deputy leader, who voted leave in last June’s EU referendum, said last week he would abstain from the next independence referendum if Sturgeon insisted on joining the single market.
Sturgeon insisted on Monday that the Scottish National party still believed Scotland’s best interests lay in full EU membership, but she and other senior party figures have made clear they could yet drop that plan in order to win the independence vote.
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago More Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-) No: 53% (-)
(via Survation / taken post-FM's speech) Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.
Makes me nervous after the fervour and optimism of a campaign gets underway at some point. Project fear is a real thing, but it doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to point out some fears, but it won't be as effective next time, and yes starts from a higher base.
The more optimistic Davidson will be the main spokesperson for No, not Darling and Sturgeon has clearly got no bounce from her speech
An opposition MSP who's never held executive office gives you more confidence than a former Chancellor of the Exchequer and veteran campaigner?
She is a more effective campaigner yes as seen by her Holyrood campaign last year, Darling was fine for a Project Fear campaign in 2014 but the next No campaign needs to be more positive
And what's her positive message? Vote for the Union and continue to enjoy my witty tweets?
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago More Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-) No: 53% (-)
(via Survation / taken post-FM's speech) Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.
Makes me nervous after the fervour and optimism of a campaign gets underway at some point. Project fear is a real thing, but it doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to point out some fears, but it won't be as effective next time, and yes starts from a higher base.
The more optimistic Davidson will be the main spokesperson for No, not Darling and Sturgeon has clearly got no bounce from her speech
An opposition MSP who's never held executive office gives you more confidence than a former Chancellor of the Exchequer and veteran campaigner?
She is a more effective campaigner yes as seen by her Holyrood campaign last year, Darling was fine for a Project Fear campaign in 2014 but the next No campaign needs to be more positive
And what's her positive message? Vote for the Union and continue to enjoy my witty tweets?
I'm going to love hearing about Ruthy's journey from telling us that the only way to ensure EU membership was to vote No, through vote Remain in the best interests of Scotland, on to must retain access to the European single market to protect the economy, jobs and public services to her final destination of Tessy Brexit and 3 bags full. It'll be fascinating.
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago More Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-) No: 53% (-)
(via Survation / taken post-FM's speech) Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.
Makes me nervous after the fervour and optimism of a campaign gets underway at some point. Project fear is a real thing, but it doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to point out some fears, but it won't be as effective next time, and yes starts from a higher base.
The more optimistic Davidson will be the main spokesperson for No, not Darling and Sturgeon has clearly got no bounce from her speech
An opposition MSP who's never held executive office gives you more confidence than a former Chancellor of the Exchequer and veteran campaigner?
She is a more effective campaigner yes as seen by her Holyrood campaign last year, Darling was fine for a Project Fear campaign in 2014 but the next No campaign needs to be more positive
And what's her positive message? Vote for the Union and continue to enjoy my witty tweets?
Our shared history, culture, language, family ties, ties of trade etc Plus she has a more optimistic tone than Darling
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago More Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-) No: 53% (-)
(via Survation / taken post-FM's speech) Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.
Makes me nervous after the fervour and optimism of a campaign gets underway at some point. Project fear is a real thing, but it doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to point out some fears, but it won't be as effective next time, and yes starts from a higher base.
The more optimistic Davidson will be the main spokesperson for No, not Darling and Sturgeon has clearly got no bounce from her speech
An opposition MSP who's never held executive office gives you more confidence than a former Chancellor of the Exchequer and veteran campaigner?
She is a more effective campaigner yes as seen by her Holyrood campaign last year, Darling was fine for a Project Fear campaign in 2014 but the next No campaign needs to be more positive
And what's her positive message? Vote for the Union and continue to enjoy my witty tweets?
Stay in the 300 year old single market with common language, common currency, open borders and fiscal transfers.....
My favourite Zoomer, who lives in Windsor, has also been busy on Twitter today. Joyous, if not really civic in any way...
Thankyou Brian, for fitting in a few minutes of your time to endorse the cause of Scottish independence from your Manhattan Penthouse, I believe they will be switching to hear the views of Sir Sean from the Bahamas shortly after!
Brian Cox has the weakest handshake I have ever known. It was like being proffered a recently killed herring.
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago More Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-) No: 53% (-)
(via Survation / taken post-FM's speech) Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.
Makes me nervous after the fervour and optimism of a campaign gets underway at some point. Project fear is a real thing, but it doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to point out some fears, but it won't be as effective next time, and yes starts from a higher base.
The more optimistic Davidson will be the main spokesperson for No, not Darling and Sturgeon has clearly got no bounce from her speech
An opposition MSP who's never held executive office gives you more confidence than a former Chancellor of the Exchequer and veteran campaigner?
She is a more effective campaigner yes as seen by her Holyrood campaign last year, Darling was fine for a Project Fear campaign in 2014 but the next No campaign needs to be more positive
And what's her positive message? Vote for the Union and continue to enjoy my witty tweets?
I'm going to love hearing about Ruthy's journey from telling us that the only way to ensure EU membership was to vote No, through vote Remain in the best interests of Scotland, on to must retain access to the European single market to protect the economy, jobs and public services to her final destination of Tessy Brexit and 3 bags full. It'll be fascinating.
Ruthie wont have been the only one on a 'journey'.....shall we take a wee look at the SNP's currency plans......
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago More Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-) No: 53% (-)
(via Survation / taken post-FM's speech) Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.
Makes me nervous after the fervour and optimism of a campaign gets underway at some point. Project fear is a real thing, but it doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to point out some fears, but it won't be as effective next time, and yes starts from a higher base.
The more optimistic Davidson will be the main spokesperson for No, not Darling and Sturgeon has clearly got no bounce from her speech
Even though Davidson is popular with Scots (her appeal is still a bit of a mystery to me, but for whatever reason it's obviously there), I really doubt she or any other politician can move opinion on her own.
After all, some of the areas which most enthusiastically voted for Gordon Brown's Labour in the 2010 election were often the same places that voted for independence in 2014, despite Brown being probably the most high-profile "No" spokesperson in the last days of the referendum. It will surely be the arguments, and events, that sway how the average Scottish person feels about it; the idea that they'll go along with a particular argument, just because a politician they like is advocating it, is a bit silly.
It is not the No campaign who needs to move opinion though as tonight's polls show, it is the Yes campaign that needs to do that, No just needs a leader who can appeal to Tory, Labour and LD unionists and keep them on board and Ruth is probably best able to do that
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago More Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-) No: 53% (-)
(via Survation / taken post-FM's speech) Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.
Makes me nervous after the fervour and optimism of a campaign gets underway at some point. Project fear is a real thing, but it doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to point out some fears, but it won't be as effective next time, and yes starts from a higher base.
Surely Project Fear will be more potent this time due to collapse in the oil price and increase in Scottish deficit.
The best tactic last time was Gordon Brown frightening people that Scottish Government would have to cut the state pension.
Next time the No Campaign will say:
"Huge deficit = Savage cuts to state pension and tax credits"
"Not Mickey Mouse tinkering - life changing stuff"
Galloway called it "Austerity Plus Plus" last time - this time they'll say it'll be miles worse than even that.
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago More Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-) No: 53% (-)
(via Survation / taken post-FM's speech) Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.
Makes me nervous after the fervour and optimism of a campaign gets underway at some point. Project fear is a real thing, but it doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to point out some fears, but it won't be as effective next time, and yes starts from a higher base.
The more optimistic Davidson will be the main spokesperson for No, not Darling and Sturgeon has clearly got no bounce from her speech
I think it would suit the Yes campaign to have a Tory as its main opponent. Gordon Brown would be better.
Unfortunately the bear of small brain isn't actually on tw@tter.
Not fake poohs?
I don't believe that tw@tter handle is active and what I presume is a photoshop has a blue check mark by it ie would have to be the genuine rumbly in the tumbly (re)moaner.
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago More Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-) No: 53% (-)
(via Survation / taken post-FM's speech) Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.
Makes me nervous after the fervour and optimism of a campaign gets underway at some point. Project fear is a real thing, but it doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to point out some fears, but it won't be as effective next time, and yes starts from a higher base.
The more optimistic Davidson will be the main spokesperson for No, not Darling and Sturgeon has clearly got no bounce from her speech
I think it would suit the Yes campaign to have a Tory as its main opponent. Gordon Brown would be better.
Davidson has better poll ratings in Scotland than Gordon Brown but of course he will be involved too, I doubt Davidson will actually be designated the official No spokesperson but she should participate in the debates against Sturgeon
The important question is whether someone has the whole shebang - and this is part of a drip drip, or if this is a one off photocopy of a form from some accountants desk or whatever.
It's important because there's £4k available to back "Trump to leave before end of first term" at evens on BF.
I'd rather lay than back that right now - but that calculation could well change if the whole lot is about to be dumped or drip-leaked.
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago More Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-) No: 53% (-)
(via Survation / taken post-FM's speech) Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.
Makes me nervous after the fervour and optimism of a campaign gets underway at some point. Project fear is a real thing, but it doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to point out some fears, but it won't be as effective next time, and yes starts from a higher base.
The more optimistic Davidson will be the main spokesperson for No, not Darling and Sturgeon has clearly got no bounce from her speech
I think it would suit the Yes campaign to have a Tory as its main opponent. Gordon Brown would be better.
Davidson has better poll ratings in Scotland than Gordon Brown but of course he will be involved too, I doubt Davidson will actually be designated the official No spokesperson but she should participate in the debates against Sturgeon
I doubt that there will be a single Better Together Campaign again - Labour will have learnt its lesson from that. Any debates will probably involve contributions from all political parties - and certainly Davidson would represent the Tories.
FFS 20 min rant by the presenter about Trump with zero evidence for her suspisions about all sorts of things, then the revelation it is only a portion of the 2005 return, not the full thing...Then an ad break...
So they don't know really anything under the headline figures of income and total tax paid...No context about if the write downs etc are all proper and above board
And the "expert" they have on says nothing dodgy for somebody in his position.
Comments
“There is a risk that linking independence closely to the idea of staying in the EU could alienate some of those who currently back leaving the UK,” Curtice said.
Jim Sillars, a former SNP deputy leader, who voted leave in last June’s EU referendum, said last week he would abstain from the next independence referendum if Sturgeon insisted on joining the single market.
Sturgeon insisted on Monday that the Scottish National party still believed Scotland’s best interests lay in full EU membership, but she and other senior party figures have made clear they could yet drop that plan in order to win the independence vote.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/15/eurosceptic-views-in-scotland-pose-dilemma-for-nicola-sturgeon
https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/841803660560629761
The best tactic last time was Gordon Brown frightening people that Scottish Government would have to cut the state pension.
Next time the No Campaign will say:
"Huge deficit = Savage cuts to state pension and tax credits"
"Not Mickey Mouse tinkering - life changing stuff"
Galloway called it "Austerity Plus Plus" last time - this time they'll say it'll be miles worse than even that.
https://twitter.com/yashar/status/841804402952396800
The important question is whether someone has the whole shebang - and this is part of a drip drip, or if this is a one off photocopy of a form from some accountants desk or whatever.
It's important because there's £4k available to back "Trump to leave before end of first term" at evens on BF.
I'd rather lay than back that right now - but that calculation could well change if the whole lot is about to be dumped or drip-leaked.
https://twitter.com/poohbearquote/status/497502593154035712
Elena CresciVerified account @elenacresci
a tweet claiming a Swedish boy was attacked by "Islamic terrorists" for having blue eyes is using a pic of a girl who was attacked by a dog
So they don't know really anything under the headline figures of income and total tax paid...No context about if the write downs etc are all proper and above board
And the "expert" they have on says nothing dodgy for somebody in his position.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/snp/news/84244/independence-could-set-scotlands-economy-back-10-years
https://twitter.com/AndrewWilson/status/841783373836226560