I think we - on pb - have a tendency to overestimate the effect of 'events' on near term voting patterns. In November 2015, France suffered what was probably its worst ever terror attack at the Bataclan Theatre and outside the Stade de France with 130 people killed and close to 400 injured. An attack by Islamic terrorists, where the attackers may have ben able to take advantage of Schengen to get away. What could have been better for Marine Le Pen and the Front National?
Here are the Ifop Polls for Le Pen's share (highest against any LR candidate):
Sept - 29% Oct - 29% Dec - 29%
There was no Bataclan spike for Le Pen.
What about the July 2016 Nice attacks which killed 87 and injured 434?
April - 29% Jun - 30.5% Sept - 30%
Here, the gap of six weeks until the early September poll might hide a bump. But there was certainly no long lasting impact on voting patterns.
The continuing flood of money on her pushes her odds down to a price that represents more than a 25% chance of winning, whereas most sensible people who understand the French voting system would put her chances no higher than 10-15%, that keeps the odds and value of the other contenders artificially high, which is excellent news for serious bettors on this market
From a trading point of view, she is a safe haven for potential profits already generated, because inevitably her price comes down every few days before realism sets in. The only tricky bit is estimating how low she can go before realism sets in and her price is pushed out again.
Yeah, those evil, evil Tories - how dare they raise taxes to fund social care!
The furore over NIC's does : "the only fair taxes are those paid by other people".
The tax rises disproportionately affected journalists. ‘Nuff said.
Knocked my private practice income too, and my private secretary and credit controller, who are also self employed. Fees going up next year as a result, to pass the cost on.
Sorry, we are talking about the increases in National Insurance for the self employed here aren't we? The maximum increase will be, according to figures published on here and elsewhere, a bit more than ten quid a week and you will have to be, earning after legitimate expenses, more than three times the median wage to get clobbered by that much.
Now, you want to tell me that as a senior doctor you would even notice the price of a small round of drinks per week out of your income? Give over. Have to put up fees indeed! And while we are on the subject how much do you pay your secretary and credit controller? Will they even be affected?
I expect that there are those primarily on the right hand edge of the Conservative Party who will regard any increase in taxation as bad. However, for a wealthy man who, from his posts on here, primarily supports left of centre parties and policies to try and say his income will be knocked by a tenner week tax increase looks, shall we say, a bit odd.
Taxation and practice costs are about 65% of my billed PP income, so quite significant costs. My private secretary and credit controller work for several other consultants too. They earn their money, but are squeezed too. In addition there are other recent costs, including room rent at the private hospital etc. Private practice is not as lucrative as it once was, and approaching the point that if I were newly appointed then I wouldn't bother.
I started PP in 2003, when the Labour party started its policy of privatisation and outsourcing, while neglecting expensive chronic care. Everyone needs an escape plan for when it all goes tits up.
I haven't put fees up for 5 years, but next financial year will.
For those of us currently detransitioning it's also a huge worry.
Detransitioning? Sounds like an epithet for an aborted Brexit when a supposedly permanent decision turns out not to solve any of our problems. Let's hope it doesn't affect the country's virility too much.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him until the next general election, not one members' poll has showed Corbyn losing the members' vote and Corbyn has made clear he will lead Labour into the next election
The trend is my friend, not yours. We'll find out soon enough.
The trend is that Corbyn has twice been elected by Labour members and they show no sign of voting against him now, when the Tories got rod of IDS they replaced him with Michael Howard who ran just as a right wing a platform in 2005 and lost, it was only after defeat Tory members gave Cameronism a hearing
and my private secretary and credit controller, who are also self employed. .
Sorry, we are talking about the increases in National Insurance for the self employed here aren't we? The maximum increase will be, according to figures published on here and elsewhere, a bit more than ten quid a week and you will have to be, earning after legitimate expenses, more than three times the median wage to get clobbered by that much.
Now, you want to tell me that as a senior doctor you would even notice the price of a small round of drinks per week out of your income? Give over. Have to put up fees indeed! And while we are on the subject how much do you pay your secretary and credit controller? Will they even be affected?
I expect that there are those primarily on the right hand edge of the Conservative Party who will regard any increase in taxation as bad. However, for a wealthy man who, from his posts on here, primarily supports left of centre parties and policies to try and say his income will be knocked by a tenner week tax increase looks, shall we say, a bit odd.
I'd love to know how that particular post counts as self employed.
When I had a tax inspection a few years back everytbing was in order for self employment, both for myself and my secretary. Doctors often get inspected as we have better records than cash in hand workers.
Interesting, the lack of VAT would make things easier. Lots of "Fillon - style" employment in my industry too, many wives do secretarial and bookkeeping work for a salary just under the 40% income tax bracket. Lots of company meetings take place in nice restaurants too, and on the golf course.
Indeed, Mr. Pit, when I was self employed I was very, very conservative in what I claimed as a business expense and probably paid more tax than I actually needed to as a result. I didn't mind. I slept well and I was less likely to trigger an Inland Revenue inspection. That happened to a mate of mine and, goodness, the stress that caused him and his wife was awful - the revenue people went through his books, accounts and bank statements for years past with a fine tooth comb.
Anyway, despite the very restricted nature of my expense claims I did each year put in a sum for my wife doing secretarial and proof reading work. I did this at the urging of my accountant and justifiably so I felt. Herself did answer the phone, sort out the post, arrange bits of my diary and, most importantly, proof read drafts of documents (she can spot a spelling or grammatical error at one hundred paces).
As for meetings in nice restaurants, I used to claim the travelling expenses to and from but never the costs of the meal, even when I was salaried I never did that.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him until the next general election, not one members' poll has showed Corbyn losing the members' vote and Corbyn has made clear he will lead Labour into the next election
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
I agree on the impact of such events, though they may help GOTV on some quarters.
I detect the wave of populism receeding, not just in Australia, but in the EU too. In part this is fatigue due to overexposure to Trump and the alt.right, in part to the dampening of the migrant crisis, and in part general improvement in economic indicies.
Is the L shaped recovery from the GFC finally reaching an uptick?
Regarding the recovery, the PMIs are at decade highs in the Eurozone, which definitely indicates that the previously tentative recovery is gaining momentum. The Eurozone has one big advantage in this upswing: savings rates are at well above normal levels. If people feel more confident, then they save less, and the economy grows quicker. It's a positive feedback loop that has been almost entirely absent from the Eurozone in the last decade.
As far as populism, I think the rise of Macron in France, D66 in the Netherlands and Citizens in Spain - all uber centrist, pro-EU parties - shows that there is an interesting pendulum at work. The rise of populist movements has created shadows. (D66, it should be noted, topped the poll at the Dutch EU electiosn in 2014.)
As a fund manager, I've always been of the view that the economic cycle is much more powerful than any politician. If there is a cyclical upturn in the Eurozone, then calls to overthrow the existing order will become more muted.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
"Nigel Farage has piled the pressure on Downing Street over a growing electoral fraud inquiry by giving police a dossier about the Tories’ battle to stop him becoming an MP.
Police, who are investigating whether the Tories broke spending laws when they defeated Mr Farage in the 2015 Thanet South campaign, interviewed one of his most senior aides, election strategist Chris Bruni-Lowe, this month.
Mr Bruni-Lowe’s evidence included the astonishing claim that the party’s only MP, Douglas Carswell, passed confidential Ukip data about local voters to the Conservatives to help them defeat Mr Farage."
and my private secretary and credit controller, who are also self employed. .
Sorry, we are talking about the increases in National Insurance for the self employed here aren't we? The maximum increase will be, according to figures published on here and elsewhere, a bit more than ten quid a week and you will have to be, earning after legitimate expenses, more than three times the median wage to get clobbered by that much.
Now, you want to tell me that as a senior doctor you would even notice the price of a small round of drinks per week out of your income? Give over. Have to put up fees indeed! And while we are on the subject how much do you pay your secretary and credit controller? Will they even be affected?
I expect that there are those primarily on the right hand edge of the Conservative Party who will regard any increase in taxation as bad. However, for a wealthy man who, from his posts on here, primarily supports left of centre parties and policies to try and say his income will be knocked by a tenner week tax increase looks, shall we say, a bit odd.
I'd love to know how that particular post counts as self employed.
When I had a tax inspection a few years back everytbing was in order for self employment, both for myself and my secretary. Doctors often get inspected as we have better records than cash in hand workers.
Has the necessary legislation been passed to abandon Class 2 NICs? Or is it tied up with the new, proposed legislation for Class 4 reform?
RLB didn't seem that bad on Marr to me. His attempt to construct an Excel document on live television was a tad ludicrous. Maybe my expectations of the Shad Cab are so low it feels like a triumph that she didn't conspicuously soil herself.
I agree on the impact of such events, though they may help GOTV on some quarters.
I detect the wave of populism receeding, not just in Australia, but in the EU too. In part this is fatigue due to overexposure to Trump and the alt.right, in part to the dampening of the migrant crisis, and in part general improvement in economic indicies.
Is the L shaped recovery from the GFC finally reaching an uptick?
Regarding the recovery, the PMIs are at decade highs in the Eurozone, which definitely indicates that the previously tentative recovery is gaining momentum. The Eurozone has one big advantage in this upswing: savings rates are at well above normal levels. If people feel more confident, then they save less, and the economy grows quicker. It's a positive feedback loop that has been almost entirely absent from the Eurozone in the last decade.
As far as populism, I think the rise of Macron in France, D66 in the Netherlands and Citizens in Spain - all uber centrist, pro-EU parties - shows that there is an interesting pendulum at work. The rise of populist movements has created shadows. (D66, it should be noted, topped the poll at the Dutch EU electiosn in 2014.)
As a fund manager, I've always been of the view that the economic cycle is much more powerful than any politician. If there is a cyclical upturn in the Eurozone, then calls to overthrow the existing order will become more muted.
I don't think the kind of growth rates that people took for granted pre-2000 are coming back, even with a cyclical upturn. That leaves us in a world where for some groups to prosper, others must lose out, rather than one where everyone can grow richer together. Reactions to mass migration, and attempts by the EU to integrate, won't go away either.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
To repeat - the latest poll published last week showed that 50% of Labour members want him to stand down by the next election.
I agree on the impact of such events, though they may help GOTV on some quarters.
I detect the wave of populism receeding, not just in Australia, but in the EU too. In part this is fatigue due to overexposure to Trump and the alt.right, in part to the dampening of the migrant crisis, and in part general improvement in economic indicies.
Is the L shaped recovery from the GFC finally reaching an uptick?
Regarding the recovery, the PMIs are at decade highs in the Eurozone, which definitely indicates that the previously tentative recovery is gaining momentum. The Eurozone has one big advantage in this upswing: savings rates are at well above normal levels. If people feel more confident, then they save less, and the economy grows quicker. It's a positive feedback loop that has been almost entirely absent from the Eurozone in the last decade.
As far as populism, I think the rise of Macron in France, D66 in the Netherlands and Citizens in Spain - all uber centrist, pro-EU parties - shows that there is an interesting pendulum at work. The rise of populist movements has created shadows. (D66, it should be noted, topped the poll at the Dutch EU electiosn in 2014.)
As a fund manager, I've always been of the view that the economic cycle is much more powerful than any politician. If there is a cyclical upturn in the Eurozone, then calls to overthrow the existing order will become more muted.
I don't think the kind of growth rates that people took for granted pre-2000 are coming back, even with a cyclical upturn. That leaves us in a world where for some groups to prosper, others must lose out, rather than one where everyone can grow richer together. Reactions to mass migration, and attempts by the EU to integrate, won't go away either.
I don't disagree with you regarding reactions, but most people, most of the time, are concerned mostly with their economic circumstances. If people feel comfortable and employed, they are much less likely to consider radical political alternatives.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
To repeat - the latest poll published last week showed that 50% of Labour members want him to stand down by the next election.
To repeat - The latest poll last week showed Labour members would re elect Corbyn if he stood again and more wanted him to lead Labour into the next general election than stand down now
I don't disagree with you regarding reactions, but most people, most of the time, are concerned mostly with their economic circumstances. If people feel comfortable and employed, they are much less likely to consider radical political alternatives.
It depends how you define radical. In the early 90s giving Labour a huge landslide majority would have seemed reckless. It was partly the return of the feel-good factor by 1997 that gave people the confidence to elect Blair.
Benign economic conditions don't necessarily mean that the status quo wins.
I don't disagree with you regarding reactions, but most people, most of the time, are concerned mostly with their economic circumstances. If people feel comfortable and employed, they are much less likely to consider radical political alternatives.
It depends how you define radical. In the early 90s giving Labour a huge landslide majority would have seemed reckless. It was partly the return of the feel-good factor by 1997 that gave people the confidence to elect Blair.
Benign economic conditions don't necessarily mean that the status quo wins.
A centrist political party won in 1997, not a radical one.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him until the next general election, not one members' poll has showed Corbyn losing the members' vote and Corbyn has made clear he will lead Labour into the next election
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
Excluding Don't Knows more than 53% indicated they want Corbyn to stand down before the election.
I don't disagree with you regarding reactions, but most people, most of the time, are concerned mostly with their economic circumstances. If people feel comfortable and employed, they are much less likely to consider radical political alternatives.
It depends how you define radical. In the early 90s giving Labour a huge landslide majority would have seemed reckless. It was partly the return of the feel-good factor by 1997 that gave people the confidence to elect Blair.
Benign economic conditions don't necessarily mean that the status quo wins.
A centrist political party won in 1997, not a radical one.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
To repeat - the latest poll published last week showed that 50% of Labour members want him to stand down by the next election.
To repeat - The latest poll last week showed Labour members would re elect Corbyn if he stood again and more wanted him to lead Labour into the next general election than stand down now
But would not wish him to continue until the General Election.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
To repeat - the latest poll published last week showed that 50% of Labour members want him to stand down by the next election.
To repeat - The latest poll last week showed Labour members would re elect Corbyn if he stood again and more wanted him to lead Labour into the next general election than stand down now
It's a race against the clock for Labour. There is effectively now only three years to next GE at the maximum. A new leader needs at least a few months to bed in etc. So Corbyn has to go by Autumn 2019 at the absolute latest to avoid a wipeout. Given the the leadership election needs two or three months (unless Watson just becomes interim leader over the GE), then ousting Corbyn needs to be done by Spring 2019 by my reckoning. Sane Labour have two years max.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him until the next general election, not one members' poll has showed Corbyn losing the members' vote and Corbyn has made clear he will lead Labour into the next election
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
Excluding Don't Knows more than 53% indicated they want Corbyn to stand down before the election.
You can't exclude DKs and the fact remains when asked who they want to lead Labour into the next election Corbyn was ahead by miles, he will stand again, there is no candidate who can beat him, you are stuck with Corbyn at the next general election, tough
I agree on the impact of such events, though they may help GOTV on some quarters.
I detect the wave of populism receeding, not just in Australia, but in the EU too. In part this is fatigue due to overexposure to Trump and the alt.right, in part to the dampening of the migrant crisis, and in part general improvement in economic indicies.
Is the L shaped recovery from the GFC finally reaching an uptick?
Regarding the recovery, the PMIs are at decade highs in the Eurozone, which definitely indicates that the previously tentative recovery is gaining momentum. The Eurozone has one big advantage in this upswing: savings rates are at well above normal levels. If people feel more confident, then they save less, and the economy grows quicker. It's a positive feedback loop that has been almost entirely absent from the Eurozone in the last decade.
As far as populism, I think the rise of Macron in France, D66 in the Netherlands and Citizens in Spain - all uber centrist, pro-EU parties - shows that there is an interesting pendulum at work. The rise of populist movements has created shadows. (D66, it should be noted, topped the poll at the Dutch EU electiosn in 2014.)
As a fund manager, I've always been of the view that the economic cycle is much more powerful than any politician. If there is a cyclical upturn in the Eurozone, then calls to overthrow the existing order will become more muted.
I don't think the kind of growth rates that people took for granted pre-2000 are coming back, even with a cyclical upturn. That leaves us in a world where for some groups to prosper, others must lose out, rather than one where everyone can grow richer together. Reactions to mass migration, and attempts by the EU to integrate, won't go away either.
I don't disagree with you regarding reactions, but most people, most of the time, are concerned mostly with their economic circumstances. If people feel comfortable and employed, they are much less likely to consider radical political alternatives.
Unhappiness builds up in the good times, even then, before boiling over in the hard times.
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
To repeat - the latest poll published last week showed that 50% of Labour members want him to stand down by the next election.
To repeat - The latest poll last week showed Labour members would re elect Corbyn if he stood again and more wanted him to lead Labour into the next general election than stand down now
It's a race against the clock for Labour. There is effectively now only three years to next GE at the maximum. A new leader needs at least a few months to bed in etc. So Corbyn has to go by Autumn 2019 at the absolute latest to avoid a wipeout. Given the the leadership election needs two or three months (unless Watson just becomes interim leader over the GE), then ousting Corbyn needs to be done by Spring 2019 by my reckoning. Sane Labour have two years max.
I am sure that if necessary the NEC could hurry up the process so as to have it completed within six weeks or so. Even in the days when the leadership was in the hands of the PLP the process took nearly a month. Gaitskell died on 18th January 1963 with Wilson being elected Leader on 14th February.
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Is it direct? Or is it one of these where you have to go to Norway first?
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him until the next general election, not one members' poll has showed Corbyn losing the members' vote and Corbyn has made clear he will lead Labour into the next election
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
Excluding Don't Knows more than 53% indicated they want Corbyn to stand down before the election.
You can't exclude DKs and the fact remains when asked who they want to lead Labour into the next election Corbyn was ahead by miles, he will stand again, there is no candidate who can beat him, you are stuck with Corbyn at the next general election, tough
Unhappiness builds up in the good times, even then, before boiling over in the hard times.
The last time the developed world had a sustained period of economic hardship, with rising inflation and unemployment, and when people proclaimed the end of plenty was the 1970s.
There was terrorism then too. Indeed, there were many more terrorist deaths in Europe at that time than there are now.
And there was a rise in support for those with radical solutions. (Go back and reread Anthony Well's excellent What if Gordon Banks Had Played.)
Yet the 1980s saw economic growth return in the US and Europe, and support for radical change receded. Of course, one day there will be serious enough problems of one kind or another, and someone who wants to overthrow the old order will get elected. But I think we are likely moving away from that now. Of course, I could be completely wrong, and if the Eurozone does return to recession, then I cannot see it surviving the next decade.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him until the next general election, not one members' poll has showed Corbyn losing the members' vote and Corbyn has made clear he will lead Labour into the next election
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
Excluding Don't Knows more than 53% indicated they want Corbyn to stand down before the election.
You can't exclude DKs and the fact remains when asked who they want to lead Labour into the next election Corbyn was ahead by miles, he will stand again, there is no candidate who can beat him, you are stuck with Corbyn at the next general election, tough
I am sorry that you appear to be so autistic.
I am sorry you can't read, 40% of Labour members would re elect Corbyn as leader, 15% ahead of second placed Cooper and 16% ahead of third placed Umunna and Starmer and 18% ahead of fourth placed McDonnell https://mobile.twitter.com/election_data/status/838660251377360896
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him until the next general election, not one members' poll has showed Corbyn losing the members' vote and Corbyn has made clear he will lead Labour into the next election
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
Excluding Don't Knows more than 53% indicated they want Corbyn to stand down before the election.
You can't exclude DKs and the fact remains when asked who they want to lead Labour into the next election Corbyn was ahead by miles, he will stand again, there is no candidate who can beat him, you are stuck with Corbyn at the next general election, tough
I am sorry that you appear to be so autistic.
I am sorry you can't read, 40% of Labour members would re elect Corbyn as leader, 15% ahead of second placed Cooper and 16% ahead of third placed Umunna and Starmer and 18% ahead of fourth placed McDonnell https://mobile.twitter.com/election_data/status/838660251377360896
In other words 60% did not select him even when invited to select up to four options.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
To repeat - the latest poll published last week showed that 50% of Labour members want him to stand down by the next election.
To repeat - The latest poll last week showed Labour members would re elect Corbyn if he stood again and more wanted him to lead Labour into the next general election than stand down now
It's a race against the clock for Labour. There is effectively now only three years to next GE at the maximum. A new leader needs at least a few months to bed in etc. So Corbyn has to go by Autumn 2019 at the absolute latest to avoid a wipeout. Given the the leadership election needs two or three months (unless Watson just becomes interim leader over the GE), then ousting Corbyn needs to be done by Spring 2019 by my reckoning. Sane Labour have two years max.
Even in the event a moderate replaced Corbyn May would still beat them comfortably, the left would blame it on abandoning Corbynism and Labour are back to square 1 again. At least the Tories had the common sense in 2003 to replace IDS with the equally right wing Michael Howard to give the moderate Cameron a clean slate after the 2005 general election defeat
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him until the next general election, not one members' poll has showed Corbyn losing the members' vote and Corbyn has made clear he will lead Labour into the next election
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
Excluding Don't Knows more than 53% indicated they want Corbyn to stand down before the election.
You can't exclude DKs and the fact remains when asked who they want to lead Labour into the next election Corbyn was ahead by miles, he will stand again, there is no candidate who can beat him, you are stuck with Corbyn at the next general election, tough
I am sorry that you appear to be so autistic.
I am sorry you can't read, 40% of Labour members would re elect Corbyn as leader, 15% ahead of second placed Cooper and 16% ahead of third placed Umunna and Starmer and 18% ahead of fourth placed McDonnell https://mobile.twitter.com/election_data/status/838660251377360896
In other words 60% did not select him even when invited to select up to four options.
Unhappiness builds up in the good times, even then, before boiling over in the hard times.
The last time the developed world had a sustained period of economic hardship, with rising inflation and unemployment, and when people proclaimed the end of plenty was the 1970s.
There was terrorism then too. Indeed, there were many more terrorist deaths in Europe at that time than there are now.
And there was a rise in support for those with radical solutions. (Go back and reread Anthony Well's excellent What if Gordon Banks Had Played.)
Yet the 1980s saw economic growth return in the US and Europe, and support for radical change receded. Of course, one day there will be serious enough problems of one kind or another, and someone who wants to overthrow the old order will get elected. But I think we are likely moving away from that now. Of course, I could be completely wrong, and if the Eurozone does return to recession, then I cannot see it surviving the next decade.
For all the problems, the Seventies saw much better growth in incomes than we can expect today.
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Is it direct? Or is it one of these where you have to go to Norway first?
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Although compulsory parachute wearing is a worry along with the exhaustive pre-flight dingy drills ....
Unhappiness builds up in the good times, even then, before boiling over in the hard times.
The last time the developed world had a sustained period of economic hardship, with rising inflation and unemployment, and when people proclaimed the end of plenty was the 1970s.
There was terrorism then too. Indeed, there were many more terrorist deaths in Europe at that time than there are now.
And there was a rise in support for those with radical solutions. (Go back and reread Anthony Well's excellent What if Gordon Banks Had Played.)
Yet the 1980s saw economic growth return in the US and Europe, and support for radical change receded. Of course, one day there will be serious enough problems of one kind or another, and someone who wants to overthrow the old order will get elected. But I think we are likely moving away from that now. Of course, I could be completely wrong, and if the Eurozone does return to recession, then I cannot see it surviving the next decade.
For all the problems, the Seventies saw much better growth in incomes than we can expect today.
They saw the savings of millions of people utterly decimated though. A different kind of hardship.
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Is it direct? Or is it one of these where you have to go to Norway first?
Like Wow, one feels it's a test to see how much people will suffer for very low fares. It will be interesting to see if low cost long haul will work this time.
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Is it direct? Or is it one of these where you have to go to Norway first?
Like Wow, one feels it's a test to see how much people will suffer for very low fares. It will be interesting to see if low cost long haul will work this time.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour membersdefeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him untilour into the next election
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
Excluding Don't Knows more than 53% indicated they want Corbyn to stand down before the election.
You can't exclude DKs and the fact remains when asked who they want to lead Labour into the next election Corbyn was ahead by miles, he will stand again, there is no candidate who can beat him, you are stuck with Corbyn at the next general election, tough
I am sorry that you appear to be so autistic.
I am sorry you can't read, 40% of Labour members would re elect Corbyn as leader, 15% ahead of second placed Cooper and 16% ahead of third placed Umunna and Starmer and 18% ahead of fourth placed McDonnell https://mobile.twitter.com/election_data/status/838660251377360896
In other words 60% did not select him even when invited to select up to four options.
Yep - 40% does not secure a Round One victory. Then it's all about transfers. Where do Corbyn's come from? The trend is clearly not his friend. With two more sets of elections to come in the next 14 monthd, his support is only going to continue to fall. The unions will pull the trigger in June 2018. He'll be an unpleasant memory by the October.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
To repeat - the latest poll published last week showed that 50% of Labour members want him to stand down by the next election.
To repeat - The latest poll last week showed Labour members would re elect Corbyn if he stood again and more wanted him to lead Labour into the next general election than stand down now
snip
Even in the event a moderate replaced Corbyn May would still beat them comfortably, the left would blame it on abandoning Corbynism and Labour are back to square 1 again. At least the Tories had the common sense in 2003 to replace IDS with the equally right wing Michael Howard to give the moderate Cameron a clean slate after the 2005 general election defeat
"Even in the event a moderate replaced Corbyn May would still beat them comfortably"
I don't think that is a given. Assuming a good leader, moderate and PM-looking, could quickly turn around some decent policy platforms and a manifesto, then all could easily be to play for.
Don't forgot if Brexit goes badly the mess will start to appear in 2019/20. Plus the NHS could bite Tories very badly.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Cor
Was that of Labour membersdefeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him untilour into the next election
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
Excluding Don't Knows more than 53% indicated they want Corbyn to stand down before the election.
You can't exclude DKs and the fact remains when asked who they want to lead Labour into the next election Corbyn was ahead by miles, hlection, tough
I am sorry that you appear to be so autistic.
I am sorry you can't read, 40% of Labour members would re elect Corbyn as leader, 15% ahead of second placed Cooper and 16% ahead of third placed Umunna and Starmer and 18% ahead of fourth placed McDonnell https://mobile.twitter.com/election_data/status/838660251377360896
In other words 60% did not select him even when invited to select up to four options.
Yep - 40% does not secure a Round One victory. Then it's all about transfers. Where do Corbyn's come from? The trend is clearly not his friend. With two more sets of elections to come in the next 14 monthd, his support is only going to continue to fall. The unions will pull the trigger in June 2018. He'll be an unpleasant memory by the October.
Add Corbyn and McDonnell's totals together and you get to 62%, almost exactly the same total he got last September and with no electoral college anymore the unions have no vote
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
Excluding Don't Knows more than 53% indicated they want Corbyn to stand down before the election.
I am sorry that you appear to be so autistic.
I am sorry you can't read, 40% of Labour members would re elect Corbyn as leader, 15% ahead of second placed Cooper and 16% ahead of third placed Umunna and Starmer and 18% ahead of fourth placed McDonnell https://mobile.twitter.com/election_data/status/838660251377360896
In other words 60% did not select him even when invited to select up to four options.
In other words 62% backed Corbyn or McDonnell
In truth, they are likely to be the same people expressing their other options
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Cor
Was that of Labour membersdefeat
Members.
We're stuck with him until the autumn of next year.
Nope you are stuck with him untilour into the next election
The latest Yougov survey of the members showed 50% want Corbyn to step down before the election compared with 44% wanting him to remain leader.
So still not a majority and the poll also showed they would still re elect him if he stood again
Excluding Don't Knows more than 53% indicated they want Corbyn to stand down before the election.
You can't exclude DKs and the fact remains when asked who they want to lead Labour into the next election Corbyn was ahead by miles, hlection, tough
I am sorry that you appear to be so autistic.
I am sorry you can't read, 40% of Labour members would re elect Corbyn as leader, 15% ahead of second placed Cooper and 16% ahead of third placed Umunna and Starmer and 18% ahead of fourth placed McDonnell https://mobile.twitter.com/election_data/status/838660251377360896
In other words 60% did not select him even when invited to select up to four options.
Yep - 40% does not secure a Round One victory. Then it's all about transfers. Where do Corbyn's come from? The trend is clearly not his friend. With two more sets of elections to come in the next 14 monthd, his support is only going to continue to fall. The unions will pull the trigger in June 2018. He'll be an unpleasant memory by the October.
Add Corbyn and McDonnell's totals together and you get to 62%, almost exactly the same total he got last September and with no electoral college anymore the unions have no vote
Four choices. Hard to believe anyone would go for McDonnell and not Corbyn.
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Is it direct? Or is it one of these where you have to go to Norway first?
Like Wow, one feels it's a test to see how much people will suffer for very low fares. It will be interesting to see if low cost long haul will work this time.
There has been a few attempts at this, none of which have lasted. In the noughties, I used to use Zoom to get to Canada very cheaply...their prices were insanely cheap, no wonder they went busto.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
Was that of Labour members or voters? Corbyn of course has now said he is staying leader until the next general election regardless so you are stuck with him until then, the likes of Umunna will have to wait until a Corbyn defeat
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
To repeat - the latest poll published last week showed that 50% of Labour members want him to stand down by the next election.
To repeat - The latest poll last week showed Labour members would re elect Corbyn if he stood again and more wanted him to lead Labour into the next general election than stand down now
snip
Even in the event a moderate replaced Corbyn May would still beat them comfortably, the left defeat
"Even in the event a moderate replaced Corbyn May would still beat them comfortably"
I don't think that is a given. Assuming a good leader, moderate and PM-looking, could quickly turn around some decent policy platforms and a manifesto, then all could easily be to play for.
Don't forgot if Brexit goes badly the mess will start to appear in 2019/20. Plus the NHS could bite Tories very badly.
Nope Copeland showed that, the voters voted Leave and they want to see it through. As I said Labour electing a moderate now would be like the Tories electing Cameron in 2003 only to be defeated in 2005
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
To repeat - the latest poll published last week showed that 50% of Labour members want him to stand down by the next election.
To repeat - The latest poll last week showed Labour members would re elect Corbyn if he stood again and more wanted him to lead Labour into the next general election than stand down now
snip
Even in the event a moderate replaced Corbyn May would still beat them comfortably, the left would blame it on abandoning Corbynism and Labour are back to square 1 again. At least the Tories had the common sense in 2003 to replace IDS with the equally right wing Michael Howard to give the moderate Cameron a clean slate after the 2005 general election defeat
"Even in the event a moderate replaced Corbyn May would still beat them comfortably"
I don't think that is a given. Assuming a good leader, moderate and PM-looking, could quickly turn around some decent policy platforms and a manifesto, then all could easily be to play for.
Don't forgot if Brexit goes badly the mess will start to appear in 2019/20. Plus the NHS could bite Tories very badly.
I also suspect that Starmer - Jarvis - or Benn are far more voter friendly than Michael Howard ever was, so Labour could hope to exceed the late 2003 - 2005 Tory recovery.
Have Labour abandoned the £3 a vote thing? Or can a load of Tories, Greens and Trots join in again and secure his re-election?
They (the NEC) decided last year that although the concept of allowing anyone to join was set in stone, the price wasn't. And so it was £25 to participate in the 2016 contest. Can't see it being £3 again, but would be funny if it was.
Have Labour abandoned the £3 a vote thing? Or can a load of Tories, Greens and Trots join in again and secure his re-election?
They (the NEC) decided last year that although the concept of allowing anyone to join was set in stone, the price wasn't. And so it was £25 to participate in the 2016 contest. Can't see it being £3 again, but would be funny if it was.
I remember that meeting, where Jezza like a total numpty left the meeting and then they carried on voting on measures that were disadvantageous to him.
The poll of Labour members shows clear and continuous movement away from Corbyn. But unless Len loses - which he won't - we are stuck with him for another year.
Once this is all over the Labour party owes a deep and sincere apology to the British people.
The poll of Labour members also showed Corbyn still Labour members preferred leader and McDonnell his preferred successor
It showed clear, large-scale and continuous movement away from Corbyn. The voting process also makes it next to impossible for McDonnell to succeed him. Yesterday's poll in the Times actually showed Keir Starmer as the preferred successor, with McDonnell tied with Chukka Umanna.
He is likely to be challenged again next year and the chances of that being successful are probably high if present trends continue.
By who? Over 60% of Labour members re elected him just 6 months ago and the latest polls show they would re elect him too, you are stuck with Corbynism at the next general election, tough
To repeat - the latest poll published last week showed that 50% of Labour members want him to stand down by the next election.
To repeat - The latest poll last week showed Labour members would re elect Corbyn if he stood again and more wanted him to lead Labour into the next general election than stand down now
snip
Even in the event a moderate replaced Corbyn May would still beat them comfortably, the left would blame it on abandoning Corbynism and Labour are back to 05 general election defeat
"Even in the event a moderate replaced Corbyn May would still beat them comfortably"
I don't think that is a given. Assuming a good leader, moderate and PM-looking, could quickly turn around some decent policy platforms and a manifesto, then all could easily be to play for.
Don't forgot if Brexit goes badly the mess will start to appear in 2019/20. Plus the NHS could bite Tories very badly.
I also suspect that Starmer - Jarvis - or Benn are far more voter friendly than Michael Howard ever was, so Labour could hope to exceed the late 2003 - 2005 Tory recovery.
May is also more popular than Blair was in 2003 and she is doing something the voters voted for, Brexit, unlike Blair with the Iraq War
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Is it direct? Or is it one of these where you have to go to Norway first?
Like Wow, one feels it's a test to see how much people will suffer for very low fares. It will be interesting to see if low cost long haul will work this time.
No new polls in Netherlands except Peil's daily tracker (VVD lead the PVV by 2)
What I haven't noted before is that - if there is a polling shock - it might actually mean that nieither the PVV or VVD wins. Some of hte polls show 24/22/22/20/17/15* - quite an extraordinary position.
* A reminder Dutch polls are done out of 150 seats.
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Is it direct? Or is it one of these where you have to go to Norway first?
Like Wow, one feels it's a test to see how much people will suffer for very low fares. It will be interesting to see if low cost long haul will work this time.
My friend took them to New York, got a brand new plane apparently.
Norwegian have a very aggressive strategy, taking on the big boys. A bit shit or bust, but so far it appears to be working.
BA's response is to cram more seats into a chunk of their 777s and take away the free tea and biccies from short haul flights. Their parent, IAG, is also starting 'low cost' long haul from Barcelona head to head with Norwegian.
So it is good news for the price sensitive passenger, but bad news for BA regulars who prefer a bit of product differentiation over a race to the bottom.
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Is it direct? Or is it one of these where you have to go to Norway first?
Like Wow, one feels it's a test to see how much people will suffer for very low fares. It will be interesting to see if low cost long haul will work this time.
My friend took them to New York, got a brand new plane apparently.
Norwegian have a very aggressive strategy, taking on the big boys. A bit shit or bust, but so far it appears to be working.
BA's response is to cram more seats into a chunk of their 777s and take away the free tea and biccies from short haul flights. Their parent, IAG, is also starting 'low cost' long haul from Barcelona head to head with Norwegian.
So it is good news for the price sensitive passenger, but bad news for BA regulars who prefer a bit of product differentiation over a race to the bottom.
Yes, good luck to Norwegian, they seem to have got the product right, which is a good starting point against the legacy carriers such as BA.
The incumbents have a lot of inertia from business customers, who value schedule (flights per day), negotiated company pricing and - above all - loyalty points!
Norwegian don't have hundreds of layers of head office management, legacy pensions and loads of different types of plane, they do have good prices and the best new aircraft around in the 787. They've also realised that it's better to complete against the old carriers in Europe and the US, rather than try and take on the new Establishment in the Gulf and Asia. Wish them well!
No new polls in Netherlands except Peil's daily tracker (VVD lead the PVV by 2)
What I haven't noted before is that - if there is a polling shock - it might actually mean that nieither the PVV or VVD wins. Some of hte polls show 24/22/22/20/17/15* - quite an extraordinary position.
* A reminder Dutch polls are done out of 150 seats.
Yes, I've been drawing attention for some days to Betfair's odds being way out of line for a potential shock - punters seem to think that either VVD or PVV are sure to win. They probably will, but the odds of up to 50-1 against the other possibiloities are nuts.
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Is it direct? Or is it one of these where you have to go to Norway first?
Like Wow, one feels it's a test to see how much people will suffer for very low fares. It will be interesting to see if low cost long haul will work this time.
My friend took them to New York, got a brand new plane apparently.
I've flown Norwegian in economy to the US and back a couple of times, and they're great. There's reasonably space, the food is pleasant, the in-flight entertainment options are remarkable, the planes have nice touches like the window tinting options, and it's way cheaper than its rivals. Seems an obvious choice to me.
Totally off topic, I've just booked Norwegian Air to LA, and their Premium product looks unbelievable value. Sure, it's not BA Club World or Virgin Upper Class, but it's spacious and costs 80% less. Indeed, it's less than a Premium Economy ticket from either of those guys, and you get a much larger seat with much more recline.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
Is it direct? Or is it one of these where you have to go to Norway first?
Like Wow, one feels it's a test to see how much people will suffer for very low fares. It will be interesting to see if low cost long haul will work this time.
My friend took them to New York, got a brand new plane apparently.
Norwegian have a very aggressive strategy, taking on the big boys. A bit shit or bust, but so far it appears to be working.
BA's response is to cram more seats into a chunk of their 777s and take away the free tea and biccies from short haul flights. Their parent, IAG, is also starting 'low cost' long haul from Barcelona head to head with Norwegian.
So it is good news for the price sensitive passenger, but bad news for BA regulars who prefer a bit of product differentiation over a race to the bottom.
Yes, good luck to Norwegian, they seem to have got the product right, which is a good starting point against the legacy carriers such as BA.
The incumbents have a lot of inertia from business customers, who value schedule (flights per day), negotiated company pricing and - above all - loyalty points!
Norwegian don't have hundreds of layers of head office management, legacy pensions and loads of different types of plane, they do have good prices and the best new aircraft around in the 787. They've also realised that it's better to complete against the old carriers in Europe and the US, rather than try and take on the new Establishment in the Gulf and Asia. Wish them well!
It's the right strategy. All American airlines are absolutely shite. Most European airlines are bland as f*ck. Asians do it well.
When I had a tax inspection a few years back everytbing was in order for self employment, both for myself and my secretary. Doctors often get inspected as we have better records than cash in hand workers.
I locked myself out the other day and had a locksmith round. He openly offered me the choice of paying more with VAT or less without paperwork. I frowned and said curtly "The legal option with proper paperwork" and left it at that. Was he committing an offence by making the unsolicitied offer (there was a witness - a family friend)? Would HMRC prosecute on that basis? (And is it wise to make an enemy of a local locksmith?)
Comments
The continuing flood of money on her pushes her odds down to a price that represents more than a 25% chance of winning, whereas most sensible people who understand the French voting system would put her chances no higher than 10-15%, that keeps the odds and value of the other contenders artificially high, which is excellent news for serious bettors on this market
From a trading point of view, she is a safe haven for potential profits already generated, because inevitably her price comes down every few days before realism sets in. The only tricky bit is estimating how low she can go before realism sets in and her price is pushed out again.
I started PP in 2003, when the Labour party started its policy of privatisation and outsourcing, while neglecting expensive chronic care. Everyone needs an escape plan for when it all goes tits up.
I haven't put fees up for 5 years, but next financial year will.
Anyway, despite the very restricted nature of my expense claims I did each year put in a sum for my wife doing secretarial and proof reading work. I did this at the urging of my accountant and justifiably so I felt. Herself did answer the phone, sort out the post, arrange bits of my diary and, most importantly, proof read drafts of documents (she can spot a spelling or grammatical error at one hundred paces).
As for meetings in nice restaurants, I used to claim the travelling expenses to and from but never the costs of the meal, even when I was salaried I never did that.
As far as populism, I think the rise of Macron in France, D66 in the Netherlands and Citizens in Spain - all uber centrist, pro-EU parties - shows that there is an interesting pendulum at work. The rise of populist movements has created shadows. (D66, it should be noted, topped the poll at the Dutch EU electiosn in 2014.)
As a fund manager, I've always been of the view that the economic cycle is much more powerful than any politician. If there is a cyclical upturn in the Eurozone, then calls to overthrow the existing order will become more muted.
Police, who are investigating whether the Tories broke spending laws when they defeated Mr Farage in the 2015 Thanet South campaign, interviewed one of his most senior aides, election strategist Chris Bruni-Lowe, this month.
Mr Bruni-Lowe’s evidence included the astonishing claim that the party’s only MP, Douglas Carswell, passed confidential Ukip data about local voters to the Conservatives to help them defeat Mr Farage."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4305218/Farage-accuses-Tories-secret-poll-plot.html
https://youtu.be/DRQ2YDWVQw8
Benign economic conditions don't necessarily mean that the status quo wins.
I shall report back as to how good it is.
There was terrorism then too. Indeed, there were many more terrorist deaths in Europe at that time than there are now.
And there was a rise in support for those with radical solutions. (Go back and reread Anthony Well's excellent What if Gordon Banks Had Played.)
Yet the 1980s saw economic growth return in the US and Europe, and support for radical change receded. Of course, one day there will be serious enough problems of one kind or another, and someone who wants to overthrow the old order will get elected. But I think we are likely moving away from that now. Of course, I could be completely wrong, and if the Eurozone does return to recession, then I cannot see it surviving the next decade.
https://mobile.twitter.com/election_data/status/838660251377360896
If it means ridding of us the current identity politics driven lunacy that infests the Left (and increasingly the Right), then I do sincerely hope so.
https://www.norwegian.com/uk/travel-info/on-board/premium-cabin/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPjJFv1NDBg
I don't think that is a given. Assuming a good leader, moderate and PM-looking, could quickly turn around some decent policy platforms and a manifesto, then all could easily be to play for.
Don't forgot if Brexit goes badly the mess will start to appear in 2019/20. Plus the NHS could bite Tories very badly.
Have Labour abandoned the £3 a vote thing? Or can a load of Tories, Greens and Trots join in again and secure his re-election?
What I haven't noted before is that - if there is a polling shock - it might actually mean that nieither the PVV or VVD wins. Some of hte polls show 24/22/22/20/17/15* - quite an extraordinary position.
* A reminder Dutch polls are done out of 150 seats.
BA's response is to cram more seats into a chunk of their 777s and take away the free tea and biccies from short haul flights. Their parent, IAG, is also starting 'low cost' long haul from Barcelona head to head with Norwegian.
So it is good news for the price sensitive passenger, but bad news for BA regulars who prefer a bit of product differentiation over a race to the bottom.
The incumbents have a lot of inertia from business customers, who value schedule (flights per day), negotiated company pricing and - above all - loyalty points!
Norwegian don't have hundreds of layers of head office management, legacy pensions and loads of different types of plane, they do have good prices and the best new aircraft around in the 787. They've also realised that it's better to complete against the old carriers in Europe and the US, rather than try and take on the new Establishment in the Gulf and Asia. Wish them well!