Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
The SNP should rename itself the Scottish and Northern Party, create an English branch/partner and stand candidates North of Hull. Independence for Scotland, Devolution for Northern England, moderate patriotic social democracy for everyone.
It would increase Scottish bargaining power and give normal left leaning people someone to vote for
A lot of the SNP's support loathes the English. The SNP itself isn't exactly wildly popular in England either (PB actually commissioned research which covered this point some months ago, IIRC. The SNP got net favourability of around zero amongst Remain voters, but was about as popular as the Black Death amongst Leavers, presumably including the ever-increasing proportion of voters that identify as "more English than British.")
If Scotland does vote for independence then the most satisfying aspect of the whole thing will be watching the conclusive death of the Left as a national force in the rest of the country. If Scotland were magically to secede tomorrow then the Tories would *already* have a Commons majority of 80, before going into a potential General Election with Corbyn as Leader of the Opposition.
Give the Tories another decade or two to shift the political centre further rightwards and, if Scotland leaves and takes its Nationalist bloc with it, nobody to the Left of Nick Clegg, let alone Tony Blair, is likely to become Prime Minister again in any of our lifetimes.
Labour systematically poisoned Scottish public opinion against Westminster's right to govern during the Eighties. It then made an Olympic gold medal winning fuck-up of designing the devolution settlement in the Nineties, and finally it returned third rate MSPs that allowed the Nats to run rings around them during the Noughties.
The destruction of Scottish Labour, and the potential loss of Scotland from the Union, are disasters principally of Labour's very own making - made all the more egregious by the fact that devolution was really only a self-interested party political ploy designed to benefit Labour in the first place. Labour was so smug, complacent, self-absorbed and stupid that it thought that it could rely on Scotland and Wales to keep returning Labour-dominated Governments forever, which would provide sinecure posts for Labour politicians and give the party bases of strength from which to harass future Tory Governments. Well, how's that working out for them, I wonder...?
Labour very largely originated in Scotland, and the end of the Union would rip its heart out and relegate socialism at Westminster to long-term, likely permanent, marginal status. And it would serve them bloody well right.
A left wing party would eventually win, South of the Border. They'd just have to adapt.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
Do you think the EU is not talking to all these countries too? It has far greater negotiating capacity and leverage that Liam Fox and his merry men.
A left wing party would eventually win, South of the Border. They'd just have to adapt.
Yes. Adapt by becoming wet centrists. I mean, it's not wholly inconceivable that the next Government might be something we would recognise as being "of the Left," but it could also be just something of the centre or even the centre-right, just not quite as far to the right as the Conservatives.
At the rate things are going, God alone knows where the next Government may eventually come from. It could be a complete rebuild of Labour, or an alliance of the less daft Labourites and the Lib Dems, or it could come from the Conservative Party becoming overwhelmingly dominant and then splitting into two factions. We are heading somewhat into terra incognita here.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
Do you think the EU is not talking to all these countries too? It has far greater negotiating capacity and leverage that Liam Fox and his merry men.
Yes they are but they are miles away due to the different demands of 27 Nations. It is a bit like a small business which is quick and adaptable against a large corporate who do not have the same ability or flexability. We do not have 27 Parliaments and many regional Parliaments all with an agenda to have to agree before signing off. CEPA is a good example.
The thing is that the ultimate outcome will not be as good as some extreme Brexiters demand nor, with respect, will it be as bad as some extreme remainers expect
Not at all - they are very pro business but have a social agenda at the same time. That is why they are so popular as there is something for everyone. The only issue that will cause a fracture is an Independence referendum that could tear Scotland apart with neither side certain of victory
I think it means they're SDP. In Denmark and Sweden in the 20th.C. the SDP stayed continuously in power for 30 or even 40 years. Might the SDP, er sorry SNP, just put forward something similar?
They'd be content with being the largest party for years, if not a majority govt. They'd huff and puff about independence but never actually quite get there; the finances could be just a little awkward.
I can't see them being confident of victory unless a series of polls average about 55/45%. September 2014 was 55/45% but it was the wrong way round. A defeat could badly knock their reputation for competence.
The economics for indy now are horrendous. They were iffy in 2014, but with oil at $50 a barrel (in perpetuity, apparently) and Scotland's deficit near 10% - Jesus. Indy would be suicide. iScotland would default in months, or have to be bailed out, or impose tax hikes and spending cuts like Greece since 2008.
And that's ignoring the bank/currency issue.
Of course, that doesn't mean Scotland won't vote for it. Emotionally. But there must be some calmer Nats who know that this is NOT the time for indy, economically. Tricky choice.
$150, not $50
Whuh? Oil is staying around $50, or lower. The shale revolution in America, plus electric cars, etc, guarantees this.
And the US will shortly be self-sufficient in fossil fuels.
No-one thought that, following a decade of stagnating Western growth and improvements in technology, the much talked about Peak Oil would end up being a peak of demand rather than a peak of supply.
In my part of the world, lots of people are shitting themselves that the oil price isn't going anywhere north of $60-70 for the next few years.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
The scots will have another referendum and the nats have a good chance of winning it. Brexit is a material change of circumstances and the scots are quite within their rights to reconsider their decision. Most of the people who voted yes last time will do so again. Tactically, they just have to tap in to enough of the remain vote to get them over the line. The demographics are on their side as well, older voters are more likely to be unionist Brexiteers. Of course the polls are not favourable to them at the moment, but all that is likely to change when the campaign starts. It is totally up in the air and you can't assume anything about the result. I doubt very much the prospect of Liam Fox striking a trade deal with New Zealand post 2019 will have any bearing on the decision. As a remoaner its hard to feel strongly about it either way. Time for tories/ brexiteers/ precious unionists to 'suck it up'.
A left wing party would eventually win, South of the Border. They'd just have to adapt.
In most countries politics adapts so that two parties oscillate around the centre and share power. The exceptions are places where there is utter confusion with pure PR (Israel and the Netherlands), and places which had a really traumatic experience resulting in a one party state (South Africa, Japan).
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
Do you think the EU is not talking to all these countries too? It has far greater negotiating capacity and leverage that Liam Fox and his merry men.
Yes they are but they are miles away due to the different demands of 27 Nations. It is a bit like a small business which is quick and adaptable against a large corporate who do not have the same ability or flexability.
No, it's nothing like that. The UK is not a small business but a country of over 60 million people, complex politics, conflicting vested interests and an overstretched civil service dealing with unresolved separatist movements on top of negotiating Brexit.
There's a ludicrous Twitter moments meme saying England have beaten their "fiercest rugby rivals Scotland".
lol.
No offence to Scotland, but how can you be *fierce rivals* with a team that you nearly always beat? Scotland haven't defeated England since 2008 - nearly a decade ago. And their last victory at Twickenham was in... 1983.
But that raises the question, which nation is England's big rugby rival?
I'd say Australia. With Wales or France next?
Gotta be the Convicts - as with cricket - or the Frogs' Legs.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
These trade deals are overblown. The average tariff between the US and the EU is less than 3%. What a trade deal could do is remove non-trade barriers. But then again, when Trump says "America first", is he lying ?
Regarding AUS and NZ, it is ironic we are leaving a free trade zone of 450m people and celebrating an "early" deal with a country of 4m and another of 22m.
And the US will shortly be self-sufficient in fossil fuels.
No-one thought that, following a decade of stagnating Western growth and improvements in technology, the much talked about Peak Oil would end up being a peak of demand rather than a peak of supply.
In my part of the world, lots of people are shitting themselves that the oil price isn't going anywhere north of $60-70 for the next few years.
The US won't actually be self-sufficient in fossil fuels for quite some time (if ever). Off the top of my head, they consume 17m barrels of oil a day, and produce about 9.5m. Now, that's up a long way from under 6m in 2010, but it's also a fair way off consumption.
Of course, consumption should come down with the rise of electric cars and increased efficiency, while production should rise, but we're at least five years away from self-sufficiency. And more likely, US success drives down the price of oil, which means that US production tops out at 11-12m/barrels per day.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
The scots will have another referendum and the nats have a good chance of winning it. Brexit is a material change of circumstances and the scots are quite within their rights to reconsider their decision. Most of the people who voted yes last time will do so again. Tactically, they just have to tap in to enough of the remain vote to get them over the line. The demographics are on their side as well, older voters are more likely to be unionist Brexiteers. Of course the polls are not favourable to them at the moment, but all that is likely to change when the campaign starts. It is totally up in the air and you can't assume anything about the result. I doubt very much the prospect of Liam Fox striking a trade deal with New Zealand post 2019 will have any bearing on the decision. As a remoaner its hard to feel strongly about it either way. Time for tories/ brexiteers/ precious unionists to 'suck it up'.
We will see and you may be right - but then if you are wrong Nicola will be toast
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
These trade deals are overblown. The average tariff between the US and the EU is less than 3%. What a trade deal could do is remove non-trade barriers. But then again, when Trump says "America first", is he lying ?
Regarding AUS and NZ, it is ironic we are leaving a free trade zone of 450m people and celebrating an "early" deal with a country of 4m and another of 22m.
We shouldn't forget that if we play the next few years badly (which is entirely possible), then we will also be walking away from the existing free trade deals the EU has with (off the top of my head): Israel, Canada, South Korea, Colombia, and Peru (as well as a bunch of small countries.)
Of course, we needn't fuck this up. We can do a great job of Brexit. But I've not felt terribly assured so far.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
Do you think the EU is not talking to all these countries too? It has far greater negotiating capacity and leverage that Liam Fox and his merry men.
Yes they are but they are miles away due to the different demands of 27 Nations. It is a bit like a small business which is quick and adaptable against a large corporate who do not have the same ability or flexability.
No, it's nothing like that. The UK is not a small business but a country of over 60 million people, complex politics, conflicting vested interests and an overstretched civil service dealing with unresolved separatist movements on top of negotiating Brexit.
Desperate we may be. Nimble we are not.
The governing party can't even agree to a pretty tokenistic and symbolic rise in national insurance when there is an enormous budget deficit and multiple crisis in the healthcare system. Match fit for Brexit? ha ha ha
And the US will shortly be self-sufficient in fossil fuels.
No-one thought that, following a decade of stagnating Western growth and improvements in technology, the much talked about Peak Oil would end up being a peak of demand rather than a peak of supply.
In my part of the world, lots of people are shitting themselves that the oil price isn't going anywhere north of $60-70 for the next few years.
That's the thing about transitions, people in general (even experts) do not see them coming until they start to happen. It is starting to look like a lot of people were wrong about fossil fuels.
Coal usage has collapsed in the UK, nuclear is being abandoned by many countries, gas usage has shot up, shale oil and gas are proving to be much more resilient than expected, electric cars rather than hybrids now look like they will be the replacement for petrol, solar is crazy cheap, and offshore wind is capable of providing a hell of a lot of energy.
I'm not even remotely pessimistic about climate change now, it now looks like we will avoid the worst case scenarios.
The energy business of 20-30 years time is going to be a very different one.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
The scots will have another referendum and the nats have a good chance of winning it. Brexit is a material change of circumstances and the scots are quite within their rights to reconsider their decision. Most of the people who voted yes last time will do so again. Tactically, they just have to tap in to enough of the remain vote to get them over the line. The demographics are on their side as well, older voters are more likely to be unionist Brexiteers. Of course the polls are not favourable to them at the moment, but all that is likely to change when the campaign starts. It is totally up in the air and you can't assume anything about the result. I doubt very much the prospect of Liam Fox striking a trade deal with New Zealand post 2019 will have any bearing on the decision. As a remoaner its hard to feel strongly about it either way. Time for tories/ brexiteers/ precious unionists to 'suck it up'.
We will see and you may be right - but then if you are wrong Nicola will be toast
Yep, if they lose next time, even by the smallest margin, the nats are finished.
And the US will shortly be self-sufficient in fossil fuels.
No-one thought that, following a decade of stagnating Western growth and improvements in technology, the much talked about Peak Oil would end up being a peak of demand rather than a peak of supply.
In my part of the world, lots of people are shitting themselves that the oil price isn't going anywhere north of $60-70 for the next few years.
The US won't actually be self-sufficient in fossil fuels for quite some time (if ever). Off the top of my head, they consume 17m barrels of oil a day, and produce about 9.5m. Now, that's up a long way from under 6m in 2010, but it's also a fair way off consumption.
Of course, consumption should come down with the rise of electric cars and increased efficiency, while production should rise, but we're at least five years away from self-sufficiency. And more likely, US success drives down the price of oil, which means that US production tops out at 11-12m/barrels per day.
Pretty much agree with that. I'd heard around 2020, certainly if you ignore Canadian imports and net off the rising LNG exports.
Huge numbers of layoffs in L&G in the wider sandpit over the winter, not that most of them will have to worry too much for a little while. The locals and support industries are seriously worried though.
And the US will shortly be self-sufficient in fossil fuels.
No-one thought that, following a decade of stagnating Western growth and improvements in technology, the much talked about Peak Oil would end up being a peak of demand rather than a peak of supply.
In my part of the world, lots of people are shitting themselves that the oil price isn't going anywhere north of $60-70 for the next few years.
The US won't actually be self-sufficient in fossil fuels for quite some time (if ever). Off the top of my head, they consume 17m barrels of oil a day, and produce about 9.5m. Now, that's up a long way from under 6m in 2010, but it's also a fair way off consumption.
Of course, consumption should come down with the rise of electric cars and increased efficiency, while production should rise, but we're at least five years away from self-sufficiency. And more likely, US success drives down the price of oil, which means that US production tops out at 11-12m/barrels per day.
Where will the Electric cars get their energy from ? OK, from the wall socket. Where doe sthat come from.
The cars would be marginally more efficient but unless we move to renewable in a big way [ which we are, luckily ] oil and gas will still be dominant. Trump might bring in some coal but it is too expensive.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
These trade deals are overblown. The average tariff between the US and the EU is less than 3%. What a trade deal could do is remove non-trade barriers. But then again, when Trump says "America first", is he lying ?
Regarding AUS and NZ, it is ironic we are leaving a free trade zone of 450m people and celebrating an "early" deal with a country of 4m and another of 22m.
We shouldn't forget that if we play the next few years badly (which is entirely possible), then we will also be walking away from the existing free trade deals the EU has with (off the top of my head): Israel, Canada, South Korea, Colombia, and Peru (as well as a bunch of small countries.)
Of course, we needn't fuck this up. We can do a great job of Brexit. But I've not felt terribly assured so far.
Not only the existing trade deals the EU has, but every future one it signs too.
Every door we knock on, the EU will already be there. If we can't outrun them, then the free trading 'global Brexit' case evaporates into thin air. Brexiteers seem to think that we will enter into an outside world in which Europe will no longer influence our outcomes - this is a grotesque error.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
Do you think the EU is not talking to all these countries too? It has far greater negotiating capacity and leverage that Liam Fox and his merry men.
Yes they are but they are miles away due to the different demands of 27 Nations. It is a bit like a small business which is quick and adaptable against a large corporate who do not have the same ability or flexability.
No, it's nothing like that. The UK is not a small business but a country of over 60 million people, complex politics, conflicting vested interests and an overstretched civil service dealing with unresolved separatist movements on top of negotiating Brexit.
Desperate we may be. Nimble we are not.
Lot more nimble than the EU and, no we are not desperate as you say
There's a ludicrous Twitter moments meme saying England have beaten their "fiercest rugby rivals Scotland".
lol.
No offence to Scotland, but how can you be *fierce rivals* with a team that you nearly always beat? Scotland haven't defeated England since 2008 - nearly a decade ago. And their last victory at Twickenham was in... 1983.
But that raises the question, which nation is England's big rugby rival?
I'd say Australia. With Wales or France next?
In 1972 England lost to Ireland in Dublin, we were the only home nation team who would travel to Dublin. The John Pullin Quote "We maybe rubbish but we always turn up" is still talked about in the Irish capital.
People forget that every Labour majority since the war would still have been a Labour majority without Scotland.
In fact, in Labour's disastrous 2015 election, there was a swing to Labour in England.
Yes, and Ed even took a handful of seats from the Tories in England. It was the LD collapse to the Tories made for the majority, although Labour were a long way from power thanks to the disaster in Scotland.
There's a ludicrous Twitter moments meme saying England have beaten their "fiercest rugby rivals Scotland".
lol.
No offence to Scotland, but how can you be *fierce rivals* with a team that you nearly always beat? Scotland haven't defeated England since 2008 - nearly a decade ago. And their last victory at Twickenham was in... 1983.
But that raises the question, which nation is England's big rugby rival?
And the US will shortly be self-sufficient in fossil fuels.
No-one thought that, following a decade of stagnating Western growth and improvements in technology, the much talked about Peak Oil would end up being a peak of demand rather than a peak of supply.
In my part of the world, lots of people are shitting themselves that the oil price isn't going anywhere north of $60-70 for the next few years.
That's the thing about transitions, people in general (even experts) do not see them coming until they start to happen. It is starting to look like a lot of people were wrong about fossil fuels.
Coal usage has collapsed in the UK, nuclear is being abandoned by many countries, gas usage has shot up, shale oil and gas are proving to be much more resilient than expected, electric cars rather than hybrids now look like they will be the replacement for petrol, solar is crazy cheap, and offshore wind is capable of providing a hell of a lot of energy.
I'm not even remotely pessimistic about climate change now, it now looks like we will avoid the worst case scenarios.
The energy business of 20-30 years time is going to be a very different one.
And probably much more diversified - in the UK at least.
Twenty years ago we would have had - coal, gas, nuclear as the dominant sources of electricity supply (*). In ten years, we shall have: wind (offshore and onshore), gas (CCGT), nuclear, solar, solar PV, plus limited wave and tidal power.
It's odd in a way: between the 1930s and 1970s we moved away from small power plants in every town (Derby's power station was right in the centre, next to the Silk Mill) to massive plants, often in the multiple-GW range. We're now moving back to a much more distributed power system with generally much smaller generators, often of just a few MW.
(*) I'm guessing that's correct, and in the correct order, for the mid-90s.
There's a ludicrous Twitter moments meme saying England have beaten their "fiercest rugby rivals Scotland".
lol.
No offence to Scotland, but how can you be *fierce rivals* with a team that you nearly always beat? Scotland haven't defeated England since 2008 - nearly a decade ago. And their last victory at Twickenham was in... 1983.
But that raises the question, which nation is England's big rugby rival?
I'd say Australia. With Wales or France next?
Australia. No contest.
This is going to be a rare topic with almost unanimity on PB. It does not matter what the sport is the Australians always put up a fight, it's one of their best traits.. Every match in every sport against the Aussies matters.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
These trade deals are overblown. The average tariff between the US and the EU is less than 3%. What a trade deal could do is remove non-trade barriers. But then again, when Trump says "America first", is he lying ?
Regarding AUS and NZ, it is ironic we are leaving a free trade zone of 450m people and celebrating an "early" deal with a country of 4m and another of 22m.
We shouldn't forget that if we play the next few years badly (which is entirely possible), then we will also be walking away from the existing free trade deals the EU has with (off the top of my head): Israel, Canada, South Korea, Colombia, and Peru (as well as a bunch of small countries.)
Of course, we needn't fuck this up. We can do a great job of Brexit. But I've not felt terribly assured so far.
Brexit in itself is a lot of short term pain and uncertainty. In the long term we can only make a success of it if we radically restructure our economy, develop new sectors of the economy, and increase skills and productivity. But in no way is it certain that this will happen. The quality of public discussion in the referendum itself and subsequently about things like 1) the NHS and 2) national insurance for the self employed makes me very pessimistic that we are in any way able to make the type of changes we need to.
A left wing party would eventually win, South of the Border. They'd just have to adapt.
In most countries politics adapts so that two parties oscillate around the centre and share power. The exceptions are places where there is utter confusion with pure PR (Israel and the Netherlands), and places which had a really traumatic experience resulting in a one party state (South Africa, Japan).
Yes, that just about nails it. You can only win power in a democracy by promising more than you can deliver. Eventually your disappointed supporters shift to the other lot.
There's a ludicrous Twitter moments meme saying England have beaten their "fiercest rugby rivals Scotland".
lol.
No offence to Scotland, but how can you be *fierce rivals* with a team that you nearly always beat? Scotland haven't defeated England since 2008 - nearly a decade ago. And their last victory at Twickenham was in... 1983.
But that raises the question, which nation is England's big rugby rival?
I'd say Australia. With Wales or France next?
Australia. No contest.
This is going to be a rare topic with almost unanimity on PB. It does not matter what the sport is the Australians always put up a fight, it's one of their best traits.. Every match in every sport against the Aussies matters.
The only significant sport off the top of my head that Australia isn't England/GB's biggest rival is football.
There's a ludicrous Twitter moments meme saying England have beaten their "fiercest rugby rivals Scotland".
lol.
No offence to Scotland, but how can you be *fierce rivals* with a team that you nearly always beat? Scotland haven't defeated England since 2008 - nearly a decade ago. And their last victory at Twickenham was in... 1983.
But that raises the question, which nation is England's big rugby rival?
I'd say Australia. With Wales or France next?
Australia. No contest.
This is going to be a rare topic with almost unanimity on PB. It does not matter what the sport is the Australians always put up a fight, it's one of their best traits.. Every match in every sport against the Aussies matters.
The only significant sport off the top of my head that Australia isn't England/GB's biggest rival is football.
The Australian Labor Party could teach ours a thing or two about political defenestration.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
These trade deals are overblown. The average tariff between the US and the EU is less than 3%. What a trade deal could do is remove non-trade barriers. But then again, when Trump says "America first", is he lying ?
Regarding AUS and NZ, it is ironic we are leaving a free trade zone of 450m people and celebrating an "early" deal with a country of 4m and another of 22m.
We shouldn't forget that if we play the next few years badly (which is entirely possible), then we will also be walking away from the existing free trade deals the EU has with (off the top of my head): Israel, Canada, South Korea, Colombia, and Peru (as well as a bunch of small countries.)
Of course, we needn't fuck this up. We can do a great job of Brexit. But I've not felt terribly assured so far.
Brexit in itself is a lot of short term pain and uncertainty. In the long term we can only make a success of it if we radically restructure our economy, develop new sectors of the economy, and increase skills and productivity. But in no way is it certain that this will happen. The quality of public discussion in the referendum itself and subsequently about things like 1) the NHS and 2) national insurance for the self employed makes me very pessimistic that we are in any way able to make the type of changes we need to.
If things aren't explained properly you get the results like this week and the self employed.
It's also a matter of WTF was he thinking come November the Taylor review on employment should have its initial findings and from there you will have a valid argument to state those tax changes.
There's a ludicrous Twitter moments meme saying England have beaten their "fiercest rugby rivals Scotland".
lol.
No offence to Scotland, but how can you be *fierce rivals* with a team that you nearly always beat? Scotland haven't defeated England since 2008 - nearly a decade ago. And their last victory at Twickenham was in... 1983.
But that raises the question, which nation is England's big rugby rival?
I'd say Australia. With Wales or France next?
Australia. No contest.
This is going to be a rare topic with almost unanimity on PB. It does not matter what the sport is the Australians always put up a fight, it's one of their best traits.. Every match in every sport against the Aussies matters.
The only significant sport off the top of my head that Australia isn't England/GB's biggest rival is football.
And, rather like the Americans, they have their own funny version of football which no-one else understands!
There's a ludicrous Twitter moments meme saying England have beaten their "fiercest rugby rivals Scotland".
lol.
No offence to Scotland, but how can you be *fierce rivals* with a team that you nearly always beat? Scotland haven't defeated England since 2008 - nearly a decade ago. And their last victory at Twickenham was in... 1983.
But that raises the question, which nation is England's big rugby rival?
I'd say Australia. With Wales or France next?
Australia. No contest.
This is going to be a rare topic with almost unanimity on PB. It does not matter what the sport is the Australians always put up a fight, it's one of their best traits.. Every match in every sport against the Aussies matters.
The only significant sport off the top of my head that Australia isn't England/GB's biggest rival is football.
The Australian Labor Party could teach ours a thing or two about political defenestration.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
These trade deals are overblown. The average tariff between the US and the EU is less than 3%. What a trade deal could do is remove non-trade barriers. But then again, when Trump says "America first", is he lying ?
Regarding AUS and NZ, it is ironic we are leaving a free trade zone of 450m people and celebrating an "early" deal with a country of 4m and another of 22m.
We shouldn't forget that if we play the next few years badly (which is entirely possible), then we will also be walking away from the existing free trade deals the EU has with (off the top of my head): Israel, Canada, South Korea, Colombia, and Peru (as well as a bunch of small countries.)
Of course, we needn't fuck this up. We can do a great job of Brexit. But I've not felt terribly assured so far.
Not only the existing trade deals the EU has, but every future one it signs too.
Every door we knock on, the EU will already be there. If we can't outrun them, then the free trading 'global Brexit' case evaporates into thin air. Brexiteers seem to think that we will enter into an outside world in which Europe will no longer influence our outcomes - this is a grotesque error.
Everything will influence our outcomes. Including a butterfly flapping its wings in Bombay.
There's a ludicrous Twitter moments meme saying England have beaten their "fiercest rugby rivals Scotland".
lol.
No offence to Scotland, but how can you be *fierce rivals* with a team that you nearly always beat? Scotland haven't defeated England since 2008 - nearly a decade ago. And their last victory at Twickenham was in... 1983.
But that raises the question, which nation is England's big rugby rival?
I'd say Australia. With Wales or France next?
Australia. No contest.
This is going to be a rare topic with almost unanimity on PB. It does not matter what the sport is the Australians always put up a fight, it's one of their best traits.. Every match in every sport against the Aussies matters.
The only significant sport off the top of my head that Australia isn't England/GB's biggest rival is football.
And, rather like the Americans, they have their own funny version of football which no-one else understands!
I understand that it has the best officials' signals of any sport.
Henning wehn does a good gag about england thinking germany is our biggest rival...When to be a rival you actually have to have a chance of winning...Therefore for germans it's the dutch.
Henning wehn does a good gag about england thinking germany is our biggest rival...When to be a rival you actually have to have a chance of winning...Therefore for germans it's the dutch.
Since reunification, two wins each and one draw.
Argentina have only beaten England in the Hand of God game and the 1998 world cup on penalties.
Henning wehn does a good gag about england thinking germany is our biggest rival...When to be a rival you actually have to have a chance of winning...Therefore for germans it's the dutch.
We've won every game in Germany this millennium. 10-4 over three.
Henning wehn does a good gag about england thinking germany is our biggest rival...When to be a rival you actually have to have a chance of winning...Therefore for germans it's the dutch.
Since reunification, two wins each and one draw.
Argentina have only beaten England in the Hand of God game and the 1998 world cup on penalties.
Both of which have firmly established them as cheats. Maradona, Simeone....
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
These trade deals are overblown. The average tariff between the US and the EU is less than 3%. What a trade deal could do is remove non-trade barriers. But then again, when Trump says "America first", is he lying ?
Regarding AUS and NZ, it is ironic we are leaving a free trade zone of 450m people and celebrating an "early" deal with a country of 4m and another of 22m.
We shouldn't forget that if we play the next few years badly (which is entirely possible), then we will also be walking away from the existing free trade deals the EU has with (off the top of my head): Israel, Canada, South Korea, Colombia, and Peru (as well as a bunch of small countries.)
Of course, we needn't fuck this up. We can do a great job of Brexit. But I've not felt terribly assured so far.
We voted to leave the EU to control immigration and regain sovereignty, the need to do trade deals is a side effect of Brexit but not the reason for it
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
Henning wehn does a good gag about england thinking germany is our biggest rival...When to be a rival you actually have to have a chance of winning...Therefore for germans it's the dutch.
Since reunification, two wins each and one draw.
Argentina have only beaten England in the Hand of God game and the 1998 world cup on penalties.
Both of which have firmly established them as cheats. Maradona, Simeone....
"Me, I'm dishonest, and a dishonest man you can always trust to be dishonest. Honestly it's the honest ones you have to watch out for, you never can predict if they're going to do something incredibly stupid." - Capt. Jack Sparrow.
Did Zurich to Abu Dhabi on Etihad and spent the evening in the city. Abu Dhabi is extremely boring. Etihad business class is extremely good. The best I've been on I think. Next stop Bombay/Mumbai.
It wasn't even that expensive for the business ticket. £950 return for ZRH to BOM. Not sure if it is just cheap in general or I got a decent offer.
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
These trade deals are overblown. The average tariff between the US and the EU is less than 3%. What a trade deal could do is remove non-trade barriers. But then again, when Trump says "America first", is he lying ?
Regarding AUS and NZ, it is ironic we are leaving a free trade zone of 450m people and celebrating an "early" deal with a country of 4m and another of 22m.
We shouldn't forget that if we play the next few years badly (which is entirely possible), then we will also be walking away from the existing free trade deals the EU has with (off the top of my head): Israel, Canada, South Korea, Colombia, and Peru (as well as a bunch of small countries.)
Of course, we needn't fuck this up. We can do a great job of Brexit. But I've not felt terribly assured so far.
We voted to leave the EU to control immigration and regain sovereignty, the need to do trade deals is a side effect of Brexit but not the reason for it
I don't disagree with any of that. We can control immigration, regain sovereignty, and become more prosperous.
We can also become a great deal poorer if we play the next five years poorly. Sovereignty is a means to an end; it's a recognition that - ninty-nine times out of a hundred - we are the best people to determine our needs and our future.
My concern is that failing to recognise that Brexit is a process not an event, leads to decisions that will make us all poorer.
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
Presidents often order appointees of the previous administration to resign but the decision to replace so many in one swoop raised eyebrows.
Trump asked 46 to resign. Clinton asked 95 to resign.
Trump bad. Clinton good.
There is nothing unusual about federal prosecutors being asked to resign. Obama did it, Bush did it, Clinton did it, and I'm sure Bush I and Reagan did too.
The only thing slightly odd about this is that this specific prosecutor, the one for Southern NYC, met with Trump soon after his election, and appeared to have gotten his full support. (Which, given he'd made a habit of going after Democrat donors on Wall Street is perhaps no surprise.)
My concern is that failing to recognise that Brexit is a process not an event, leads to decisions that will make us all poorer.
Is leaving the EU even a necessary condition for arriving at something close to your ideal end point, or did you see it primarily as a catalyst that so far is showing no sign of being effective?
Brexit is seen as an event rather than a process because there was no possible coherent plan for leaving the EU that would have received majority support, and there still isn't.
Did Zurich to Abu Dhabi on Etihad and spent the evening in the city. Abu Dhabi is extremely boring. Etihad business class is extremely good. The best I've been on I think. Next stop Bombay/Mumbai.
It wasn't even that expensive for the business ticket. £950 return for ZRH to BOM. Not sure if it is just cheap in general or I got a decent offer.
Indeed. Etihad is excellent. All the gulf states are incredibly boring as destinations.
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
Presidents often order appointees of the previous administration to resign but the decision to replace so many in one swoop raised eyebrows.
Trump asked 46 to resign. Clinton asked 95 to resign.
Yes but this guy has a exceptional reputation and was initially asked to stay on.
Pointing out that the number is not unusual, despite what the BBC claim.
Sorry I see what you mean. Yes, it is like that report that said all 7 senior officials in a (can't remember which) department had resigned, and it was later revealed that a) there were way more people than those that had resigned, b) it was standard for all to resign and no guarantee to get rehired and c) 2 of them was well past retirement age and stated before the election they were going regardless.
Did Zurich to Abu Dhabi on Etihad and spent the evening in the city. Abu Dhabi is extremely boring. Etihad business class is extremely good. The best I've been on I think. Next stop Bombay/Mumbai.
It wasn't even that expensive for the business ticket. £950 return for ZRH to BOM. Not sure if it is just cheap in general or I got a decent offer.
Indeed. Etihad is excellent. All the gulf states are incredibly boring as destinations.
My gf has helpfully pointed out that the ticket is massively subsidised. So hurrah for oil money and crazy Arab business plans. Long may it last if I can travel this well, this cheaply for my personal holidays. I think we spent $120 on dinner and $20 on taxi fare. Not sure if we were worth subsidising. Our stop over on the way back is only one hour and neither of us are big shoppers.
People forget that every Labour majority since the war would still have been a Labour majority without Scotland.
Wrong. In 1964 and both elections in 1974 the Conservatives would have had overall majorities without Scotland.
True for 1964 - but I don't think the Tories would have had an overall majority in October 1974.
I make it Con 278, Lab 261 for Oct 1974, with 282 required for a majority.
In Feb 74 it was Con 276, Lab 261. So no majority for the Tories there either.
The Tories only had 276 in October 1974 - including over 15 in Scotland.
You've forgotten the twelve Ulster Unionists who took the Conservative whip until the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985. That pushes it up to 288 in February and 272 in October. Labour would however have had 276 so they would still have been the largest party except that there would have been no election. My mistake.
Scots ref: possibly the only time I have ever agreed with Jezza Corbyn. Of course, it's fine. And Scotland should vote Yes.
Your posts suggest you think that BREXIT is bonkers. BREXIT is a walk in the park compared to Scottish independence.
Well said!!
As we make our way in the World and sign trade deals outside Europe, NZ confirming today we will have an early deal with them and Aus, you do have to wonder when all the talk of UK Companies relocating to Europe, the reverse may well happen and European Companies open in the UK to benefit from our trade deals, particularly if we get a US trade deal quickly.
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
These trade deals are overblown. The average tariff between the US and the EU is less than 3%. What a trade deal could do is remove non-trade barriers. But then again, when Trump says "America first", is he lying ?
Regarding AUS and NZ, it is ironic we are leaving a free trade zone of 450m people and celebrating an "early" deal with a country of 4m and another of 22m.
We shouldn't forget that if we play the next few years badly (which is entirely possible), then we will also be walking away from the existing free trade deals the EU has with (off the top of my head): Israel, Canada, South Korea, Colombia, and Peru (as well as a bunch of small countries.)
Of course, we needn't fuck this up. We can do a great job of Brexit. But I've not felt terribly assured so far.
We voted to leave the EU to control immigration and regain sovereignty, the need to do trade deals is a side effect of Brexit but not the reason for it
I don't disagree with any of that. We can control immigration, regain sovereignty, and become more prosperous.
We can also become a great deal poorer if we play the next five years poorly. Sovereignty is a means to an end; it's a recognition that - ninty-nine times out of a hundred - we are the best people to determine our needs and our future.
My concern is that failing to recognise that Brexit is a process not an event, leads to decisions that will make us all poorer.
We most probably will be slightly poorer in the short term but the voters were warned about that and still decided to vote Leave anyway to regain control
People forget that every Labour majority since the war would still have been a Labour majority without Scotland.
Wrong. In 1964 and both elections in 1974 the Conservatives would have had overall majorities without Scotland.
True for 1964 - but I don't think the Tories would have had an overall majority in October 1974.
I make it Con 278, Lab 261 for Oct 1974, with 282 required for a majority.
In Feb 74 it was Con 276, Lab 261. So no majority for the Tories there either.
The Tories only had 276 in October 1974 - including over 15 in Scotland.
You've forgotten the twelve Ulster Unionists who took the Conservative whip until the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985. That pushes it up to 288 in February and 272 in October. Labour would however have had 276 so they would still have been the largest party except that there would have been no election. My mistake.
No, they only took the Conservative whip until 1972.
People forget that every Labour majority since the war would still have been a Labour majority without Scotland.
Wrong. In 1964 and both elections in 1974 the Conservatives would have had overall majorities without Scotland.
True for 1964 - but I don't think the Tories would have had an overall majority in October 1974.
I make it Con 278, Lab 261 for Oct 1974, with 282 required for a majority.
In Feb 74 it was Con 276, Lab 261. So no majority for the Tories there either.
The Tories only had 276 in October 1974 - including over 15 in Scotland.
You've forgotten the twelve Ulster Unionists who took the Conservative whip until the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985. That pushes it up to 288 in February and 272 in October. Labour would however have had 276 so they would still have been the largest party except that there would have been no election. My mistake.
No, they only took the Conservative whip until 1972.
They had their own whips but followed conservative votes. That's why they resigned en bloc in 1985.
Did Zurich to Abu Dhabi on Etihad and spent the evening in the city. Abu Dhabi is extremely boring. Etihad business class is extremely good. The best I've been on I think. Next stop Bombay/Mumbai.
It wasn't even that expensive for the business ticket. £950 return for ZRH to BOM. Not sure if it is just cheap in general or I got a decent offer.
Indeed. Etihad is excellent. All the gulf states are incredibly boring as destinations.
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
My concern is that failing to recognise that Brexit is a process not an event, leads to decisions that will make us all poorer.
Is leaving the EU even a necessary condition for arriving at something close to your ideal end point, or did you see it primarily as a catalyst that so far is showing no sign of being effective?
Brexit is seen as an event rather than a process because there was no possible coherent plan for leaving the EU that would have received majority support, and there still isn't.
We, as a country, have never bought into the "Europe as a political union" ideal that is a part and parcel of the EU. We stayed a member, and an unhappy one at that, because we thought it construed economic benefits upon us.
I believe in the free movements of goods, services, labour and capital. But I also believe that states should be allowed to discriminate in favour of their own citizens. And I do not believe that we we signed up to the constant denuding of national sovereignty.
I am likely to be disappointed, in that my beliefs and goals will not be met. But I think the alternative is probably worse: staying inside a political union with which we are profoundly unhappy is corrosive to public trust.
We can make a success of Brexit. The best way to do that is to recognise that the people we are walking away from will likely be our political and economic allies, not our enemies. Am I confident we will make a success of Brexit right now? Not really. Liam Fox and Boris Johnson have both lived down to my expectations. David Davis is doing rather better. But they are all constrained by a political narrative that expects that two years from the invocation of Article 50 that all questions will be resolved. Cold turkey is rarely an enjoyable experience.
People forget that every Labour majority since the war would still have been a Labour majority without Scotland.
In fact, in Labour's disastrous 2015 election, there was a swing to Labour in England.
Tories 330 Labour 232
which was Labour and Ed's big mistake. The Tories took the marginals. Labour wasn't broken and he didn't need to go madly left. But they did. And I'm glad
This is GE voting intention in Scotland so far this year, mainly from subsamples in GB polls (which each have a margin of error of about 8 points) but with one Panelbase Scotland-only poll from January included (margin of error: about 3 points). Trend lines have been added.
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
Presidents often order appointees of the previous administration to resign but the decision to replace so many in one swoop raised eyebrows.
Trump asked 46 to resign. Clinton asked 95 to resign.
Trump bad. Clinton good.
There is nothing unusual about federal prosecutors being asked to resign. Obama did it, Bush did it, Clinton did it, and I'm sure Bush I and Reagan did too.
The only thing slightly odd about this is that this specific prosecutor, the one for Southern NYC, met with Trump soon after his election, and appeared to have gotten his full support. (Which, given he'd made a habit of going after Democrat donors on Wall Street is perhaps no surprise.)
That's being spun in all directions of course.
There's a theory that he's a bit too fond of the cameras. He took advantage of the blanket request to publicly rather than privately remind the Administration of the previous conversation. Therefore Trump would be forced to stick with the resignation thing and Bharara gets to look like a martyr before a run for office in November.
Wild conspiracy theory or him playing the politics game? No idea either way, personally, but as a plan it's got merit.
People forget that every Labour majority since the war would still have been a Labour majority without Scotland.
Wrong. In 1964 and both elections in 1974 the Conservatives would have had overall majorities without Scotland.
True for 1964 - but I don't think the Tories would have had an overall majority in October 1974.
I make it Con 278, Lab 261 for Oct 1974, with 282 required for a majority.
In Feb 74 it was Con 276, Lab 261. So no majority for the Tories there either.
The Tories only had 276 in October 1974 - including over 15 in Scotland.
You've forgotten the twelve Ulster Unionists who took the Conservative whip until the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985. That pushes it up to 288 in February and 272 in October. Labour would however have had 276 so they would still have been the largest party except that there would have been no election. My mistake.
No - even post 1970 the Ulster Unionists only held eight of the NI seats - others being Gerry Fitt - Bernadette Devlin - Ian Paisley - and the MP for Fermanagh & S Tyrone. From 1972 the remaining Ulster Unionists ceased to take the Tory Whip.
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
People forget that every Labour majority since the war would still have been a Labour majority without Scotland.
Wrong. In 1964 and both elections in 1974 the Conservatives would have had overall majorities without Scotland.
True for 1964 - but I don't think the Tories would have had an overall majority in October 1974.
I make it Con 278, Lab 261 for Oct 1974, with 282 required for a majority.
In Feb 74 it was Con 276, Lab 261. So no majority for the Tories there either.
The Tories only had 276 in October 1974 - including over 15 in Scotland.
You've forgotten the twelve Ulster Unionists who took the Conservative whip until the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985. That pushes it up to 288 in February and 272 in October. Labour would however have had 276 so they would still have been the largest party except that there would have been no election. My mistake.
No, they only took the Conservative whip until 1972.
They had their own whips but followed conservative votes. That's why they resigned en bloc in 1985.
Correction, it was 1974, in protest against Sunningdale.
We, as a country, have never bought into the "Europe as a political union" ideal that is a part and parcel of the EU. We stayed a member, and an unhappy one at that, because we thought it construed economic benefits upon us.
I am likely to be disappointed, in that my beliefs and goals will not be met. But I think the alternative is probably worse: staying inside a political union with which we are profoundly unhappy is corrosive to public trust.
Your argument always boils down to psychology: we don't like it (although you never state your personal feelings).
I think this psychological problem will be solved by having our own constitution, and sense of identity, reconfigured by the loss of Scotland and NI, and shedding the remaining baggage of the era when Britain was a world power in its own right.
We, as a country, have never bought into the "Europe as a political union" ideal that is a part and parcel of the EU. We stayed a member, and an unhappy one at that, because we thought it construed economic benefits upon us.
I am likely to be disappointed, in that my beliefs and goals will not be met. But I think the alternative is probably worse: staying inside a political union with which we are profoundly unhappy is corrosive to public trust.
Your argument always boils down to psychology: we don't like it (although you never state your personal feelings).
I think this psychological problem will be solved by having our own constitution, and sense of identity, reconfigured by the loss of Scotland and NI, and shedding the remaining baggage of the era when Britain was a world power in its own right.
Give it a fucking rest mate. No one believes your deluded rants, the remainers on here just egg you on because we find you irritating. Not even 1 of them believes that we should join the Eurozone and become part of the EU superstate.
Did Zurich to Abu Dhabi on Etihad and spent the evening in the city. Abu Dhabi is extremely boring. Etihad business class is extremely good. The best I've been on I think. Next stop Bombay/Mumbai.
It wasn't even that expensive for the business ticket. £950 return for ZRH to BOM. Not sure if it is just cheap in general or I got a decent offer.
Indeed. Etihad is excellent. All the gulf states are incredibly boring as destinations.
My gf has helpfully pointed out that the ticket is massively subsidised. So hurrah for oil money and crazy Arab business plans. Long may it last if I can travel this well, this cheaply for my personal holidays. I think we spent $120 on dinner and $20 on taxi fare. Not sure if we were worth subsidising. Our stop over on the way back is only one hour and neither of us are big shoppers.
Have dinner at the Oberoi Mumbai. It's just an incredible experience. Surrounded by the worlds worst poverty and most excessive wealth, all within 1km.
I know this sounds awful, but.,... it is quite something. They put gold leaf on the curry and outside there are people living on a dollar a day. I felt so guilty i went outside and just gave people money. As much as i could,
If you want a memorable evening that is it. And the Indians are charming, poor to rich. A wild place.
The food in the hotel is surprisingly mediocre. Curry with gold leaf is worse than just curry. You can get better street food outside. Nonetheless it is a unique and brilliant experience and gives you weird hope for the future of India's poor. I reckon they will be the new China. Given half a chance. And good luck to them.
We're booked there for three nights, Sean. Then a quick stop over to visit my family, then to the Lake Palace, and then up to Darjeeling. Ending the three week trip with week in Kovalam at The Leela. It's pretty much a greatest hits tour of India because she's never been before.
Comments
The big problem for Nicola is that she has no way of knowing just where the UK will be in 2018 and to announce a referendum this year could just rebound on her at which point she will have thrown away her career on a gamble. Far better to wait to see how thinks pan out before showing her hand
http://www.euronews.com/2017/03/10/eu-capitalising-on-free-trade-interest-amid-gloom-over-trump-policies
At the rate things are going, God alone knows where the next Government may eventually come from. It could be a complete rebuild of Labour, or an alliance of the less daft Labourites and the Lib Dems, or it could come from the Conservative Party becoming overwhelmingly dominant and then splitting into two factions. We are heading somewhat into terra incognita here.
Well done to the security services on that one.
The thing is that the ultimate outcome will not be as good as some extreme Brexiters demand nor, with respect, will it be as bad as some extreme remainers expect
When sober, I'm reasonably au fait with the energy industry.
No-one thought that, following a decade of stagnating Western growth and improvements in technology, the much talked about Peak Oil would end up being a peak of demand rather than a peak of supply.
In my part of the world, lots of people are shitting themselves that the oil price isn't going anywhere north of $60-70 for the next few years.
Most of the people who voted yes last time will do so again. Tactically, they just have to tap in to enough of the remain vote to get them over the line. The demographics are on their side as well, older voters are more likely to be unionist Brexiteers.
Of course the polls are not favourable to them at the moment, but all that is likely to change when the campaign starts. It is totally up in the air and you can't assume anything about the result.
I doubt very much the prospect of Liam Fox striking a trade deal with New Zealand post 2019 will have any bearing on the decision. As a remoaner its hard to feel strongly about it either way.
Time for tories/ brexiteers/ precious unionists to 'suck it up'.
Desperate we may be. Nimble we are not.
Regarding AUS and NZ, it is ironic we are leaving a free trade zone of 450m people and celebrating an "early" deal with a country of 4m and another of 22m.
Of course, consumption should come down with the rise of electric cars and increased efficiency, while production should rise, but we're at least five years away from self-sufficiency. And more likely, US success drives down the price of oil, which means that US production tops out at 11-12m/barrels per day.
Of course, we needn't fuck this up. We can do a great job of Brexit. But I've not felt terribly assured so far.
Match fit for Brexit?
ha ha ha
Coal usage has collapsed in the UK, nuclear is being abandoned by many countries, gas usage has shot up, shale oil and gas are proving to be much more resilient than expected, electric cars rather than hybrids now look like they will be the replacement for petrol, solar is crazy cheap, and offshore wind is capable of providing a hell of a lot of energy.
I'm not even remotely pessimistic about climate change now, it now looks like we will avoid the worst case scenarios.
The energy business of 20-30 years time is going to be a very different one.
Huge numbers of layoffs in L&G in the wider sandpit over the winter, not that most of them will have to worry too much for a little while. The locals and support industries are seriously worried though.
The cars would be marginally more efficient but unless we move to renewable in a big way [ which we are, luckily ] oil and gas will still be dominant. Trump might bring in some coal but it is too expensive.
Every door we knock on, the EU will already be there. If we can't outrun them, then the free trading 'global Brexit' case evaporates into thin air. Brexiteers seem to think that we will enter into an outside world in which Europe will no longer influence our outcomes - this is a grotesque error.
Twenty years ago we would have had - coal, gas, nuclear as the dominant sources of electricity supply (*). In ten years, we shall have: wind (offshore and onshore), gas (CCGT), nuclear, solar, solar PV, plus limited wave and tidal power.
It's odd in a way: between the 1930s and 1970s we moved away from small power plants in every town (Derby's power station was right in the centre, next to the Silk Mill) to massive plants, often in the multiple-GW range. We're now moving back to a much more distributed power system with generally much smaller generators, often of just a few MW.
(*) I'm guessing that's correct, and in the correct order, for the mid-90s.
Labour 232
Brexit in itself is a lot of short term pain and uncertainty. In the long term we can only make a success of it if we radically restructure our economy, develop new sectors of the economy, and increase skills and productivity.
But in no way is it certain that this will happen. The quality of public discussion in the referendum itself and subsequently about things like 1) the NHS and 2) national insurance for the self employed makes me very pessimistic that we are in any way able to make the type of changes we need to.
Scotland + Northern Ireland deficit = £25bn
It's also a matter of WTF was he thinking come November the Taylor review on employment should have its initial findings and from there you will have a valid argument to state those tax changes.
Wednesday was half baked and utterly pointless.
Including a butterfly flapping its wings in Bombay.
https://youtu.be/B6aI32Q-jsE
https://youtu.be/WwzQVlpYxMU
In Feb 74 it was Con 276, Lab 261. So no majority for the Tories there either.
Argentina have only beaten England in the Hand of God game and the 1998 world cup on penalties.
They've won every time they've played here, mind.
High profile US prosecutor Bharara says he was fired
A New York federal prosecutor who refused to resign when he and 45 other prosecutors were asked to by the Trump administration says he has been sacked.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39243529
This guy have brought a lot of big cases and from what i know without a whiff of favouritism.
It wasn't even that expensive for the business ticket. £950 return for ZRH to BOM. Not sure if it is just cheap in general or I got a decent offer.
Trump asked 46 to resign. Clinton asked 95 to resign.
Trump bad. Clinton good.
We can also become a great deal poorer if we play the next five years poorly. Sovereignty is a means to an end; it's a recognition that - ninty-nine times out of a hundred - we are the best people to determine our needs and our future.
My concern is that failing to recognise that Brexit is a process not an event, leads to decisions that will make us all poorer.
The only thing slightly odd about this is that this specific prosecutor, the one for Southern NYC, met with Trump soon after his election, and appeared to have gotten his full support. (Which, given he'd made a habit of going after Democrat donors on Wall Street is perhaps no surprise.)
Brexit is seen as an event rather than a process because there was no possible coherent plan for leaving the EU that would have received majority support, and there still isn't.
I believe in the free movements of goods, services, labour and capital. But I also believe that states should be allowed to discriminate in favour of their own citizens. And I do not believe that we we signed up to the constant denuding of national sovereignty.
I am likely to be disappointed, in that my beliefs and goals will not be met. But I think the alternative is probably worse: staying inside a political union with which we are profoundly unhappy is corrosive to public trust.
We can make a success of Brexit. The best way to do that is to recognise that the people we are walking away from will likely be our political and economic allies, not our enemies. Am I confident we will make a success of Brexit right now? Not really. Liam Fox and Boris Johnson have both lived down to my expectations. David Davis is doing rather better. But they are all constrained by a political narrative that expects that two years from the invocation of Article 50 that all questions will be resolved. Cold turkey is rarely an enjoyable experience.
This is GE voting intention in Scotland so far this year, mainly from subsamples in GB polls (which each have a margin of error of about 8 points) but with one Panelbase Scotland-only poll from January included (margin of error: about 3 points). Trend lines have been added.
There's a theory that he's a bit too fond of the cameras. He took advantage of the blanket request to publicly rather than privately remind the Administration of the previous conversation. Therefore Trump would be forced to stick with the resignation thing and Bharara gets to look like a martyr before a run for office in November.
Wild conspiracy theory or him playing the politics game?
No idea either way, personally, but as a plan it's got merit.
http://hotair.com/archives/2017/03/11/trump-to-us-attorney-preet-bharara-youre-fired/
I think this psychological problem will be solved by having our own constitution, and sense of identity, reconfigured by the loss of Scotland and NI, and shedding the remaining baggage of the era when Britain was a world power in its own right.
Where is this all going to end
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