Fraser Nelson an illustration of how out of it you can become if you talk only to your own pals down in London. He said the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon were "tanking". Today's MORI poll shows Sturgeon as easily the most popular leader and independence at 50 per cent and the SNP set for another massive victory in the local elections!
Nelson is a Scot who went down to London to make his fortune and spends his time talking Scotland down. Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh is a Londoner who came to Scotland and spends her time talking Scotland up.
WHEN ARE PEOPLE GOING TO LEARN THAT MAY CAN'T "CALL" A GENERAL ELECTION!!!!!!1111
I don't know how much value I can add having sunk seven pints - but through my haze I can see you are right about that.
At this point May should vote for no confidence against herself and she would still crush Corbyn with a 80 seat majority.
We could even put abolishing all employee NI in the manifesto (with income tax rate changes to "compensate").
Yes. With Corbyn in charge the Tories could suggest compulsory training courses on the Moon for all headteachers paid for by a 10% supplement on income tax, and still win.
I'm very appreciative of all the work Harry does on these threads but I'm glad not to be pricing up these contests on the basis of some of his estimates! Where did that Derby result come from!
WHEN ARE PEOPLE GOING TO LEARN THAT MAY CAN'T "CALL" A GENERAL ELECTION!!!!!!1111
I don't know how much value I can add having sunk seven pints - but through my haze I can see you are right about that.
At this point May should vote for no confidence against herself and she would still crush Corbyn with a 80 seat majority.
We could even put abolishing all employee NI in the manifesto (with income tax rate changes to "compensate").
Yes. With Corbyn in charge the Tories could suggest compulsory training courses on the Moon for all headteachers paid for by a 10% supplement on income tax, and still win.
One of the benefits of a thumping majority should be the chance to do the "right" stuff (e.g. tax simplification) that is usually too difficult [I'm not sure your lunar academy qualifies, though]. Though a surplus rather than a deficit helps enormously...
I'm very appreciative of all the work Harry does on these threads but I'm glad not to be pricing up these contests on the basis of some of his estimates! Where did that Derby result come from!
A YouGov poll for The Times found that the measure was backed by 47 per cent of voters, while 33 per cent thought that it was the wrong priority. Fifty-five per cent believed that Mr Hammond had broken the manifesto pledge.
A YouGov poll for The Times found that the measure was backed by 47 per cent of voters, while 33 per cent thought that it was the wrong priority. Fifty-five per cent believed that Mr Hammond had broken the manifesto pledge.
Interesting - tbh no one at work seems unduly bothered.
Mrs May's Tories now have a 5% bigger lead over Corbyn Labour than Thatcher's Tories had over Foot Labour in 1983 if that poll is correct, if there was an election tomorrow she would slaughter Labour
Mrs May's Tories now have a 5% bigger lead over Corbyn Labour than Thatcher's Tories had over Foot Labour in 1983 if that poll is correct, if there was an election tomorrow she would slaughter Labour
The 19% lead is the biggest Tory lead with YouGov in eight years.
Normal people that seem to understand the public are in charge. Hammond & May could be the dependable bank manager and headmistress in an old English town.
That would be the biggest lead in voteshare terms by any party leader since Baldwin's victory for his national government in 1931 and Corbyn Labour would still be doing 5% worse than Arthur Henderson Labour did then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1931
The 19% lead is the biggest Tory lead with YouGov in eight years.
Normal people that seem to understand the public are in charge. Hammond & May could be the dependable bank manager and headmistress in an old English town.
The 19% lead is the biggest Tory lead with YouGov in eight years.
Normal people that seem to understand the public are in charge. Hammond & May could be the dependable bank manager and headmistress in an old English town.
Mrs May's Tories now have a 5% bigger lead over Corbyn Labour than Thatcher's Tories had over Foot Labour in 1983 if that poll is correct, if there was an election tomorrow she would slaughter Labour
Not quite. The Tory lead in 1983 was 15.2% in GB - Con 43.5% Lab 28.3%
The 19% lead is the biggest Tory lead with YouGov in eight years.
Normal people that seem to understand the public are in charge. Hammond & May could be the dependable bank manager and headmistress in an old English town.
Indeed - people think May's policies are essentially the same as Cameron's but she has the added attraction of appearing diligent, hard working and relatively more ordinary / normal.
As opposed to Cameron appearing complacent, lazy and posh / out of touch.
Of course when it came to the crunch enough people backed Cameron (because they trusted him on policy and recognised his exceptional leadership qualities) but May's personal qualities make it easier for marginal voters to vote Con.
Mrs May's Tories now have a 5% bigger lead over Corbyn Labour than Thatcher's Tories had over Foot Labour in 1983 if that poll is correct, if there was an election tomorrow she would slaughter Labour
Not quite. The Tory lead in 1983 was 15.2% in GB - Con 43.5% Lab 28.3%
Depends which figures you look at but whichever you take it is still a comfortably bigger lead for May over Corbyn than Thatcher had over Foot on tonight's poll
Mrs May's Tories now have a 5% bigger lead over Corbyn Labour than Thatcher's Tories had over Foot Labour in 1983 if that poll is correct, if there was an election tomorrow she would slaughter Labour
Not quite. The Tory lead in 1983 was 15.2% in GB - Con 43.5% Lab 28.3%
Depends which figures you look at but whichever you take it is still a comfortably bigger lead for May over Corbyn than Thatcher had over Foot on tonight's poll
As has been pointed out to you several times before, the pollsters use GB figures!
Mrs May's Tories now have a 5% bigger lead over Corbyn Labour than Thatcher's Tories had over Foot Labour in 1983 if that poll is correct, if there was an election tomorrow she would slaughter Labour
Not quite. The Tory lead in 1983 was 15.2% in GB - Con 43.5% Lab 28.3%
Depends which figures you look at but whichever you take it is still a comfortably bigger lead for May over Corbyn than Thatcher had over Foot on tonight's poll
As has been pointed out to you several times before, the pollsters use GB figures!
Regardless of whether UK or GB figures May now has a bigger lead than Thatcher did then
Mrs May's Tories now have a 5% bigger lead over Corbyn Labour than Thatcher's Tories had over Foot Labour in 1983 if that poll is correct, if there was an election tomorrow she would slaughter Labour
Not quite. The Tory lead in 1983 was 15.2% in GB - Con 43.5% Lab 28.3%
Depends which figures you look at but whichever you take it is still a comfortably bigger lead for May over Corbyn than Thatcher had over Foot on tonight's poll
As has been pointed out to you several times before, the pollsters use GB figures!
Regardless of whether UK or GB figures May now has a bigger lead than Thatcher did then
The biggest lead Thatcher polled was 27%, just after the Falklands.
Get rid of the utterly useless Jezza and McIRA and replace them with Nandy and Chuka and the game changes, almost overnight.
It was a mile wide when she was only ten points up in the polls. Must be at least two miles wide by now
The width of her support will extend to several miles while ever the likes of @NickPalmer continue to prop up the Corbynite regime - the true enemy of working people. The only solace is it won't get any deeper.
Mrs May's Tories now have a 5% bigger lead over Corbyn Labour than Thatcher's Tories had over Foot Labour in 1983 if that poll is correct, if there was an election tomorrow she would slaughter Labour
Not quite. The Tory lead in 1983 was 15.2% in GB - Con 43.5% Lab 28.3%
Depends which figures you look at but whichever you take it is still a comfortably bigger lead for May over Corbyn than Thatcher had over Foot on tonight's poll
As has been pointed out to you several times before, the pollsters use GB figures!
Regardless of whether UK or GB figures May now has a bigger lead than Thatcher did then
The biggest lead Thatcher polled was 27%, just after the Falklands.
True though I was looking at the actual general election result
CON 391 LAB 172 LD 8 (titters) UKIP 0 GRN 1 SNP 56
Majority of 132.
Just a bit of fun, of course..
I suspect it would be worse for SNP (slightly) and Lab (a good deal), and better for Con and LD.
LDs are making a recovery where it matters, while Con is making inroads into exactly the demographics that would deliver northern and midlands seats by the bucketload. Con would also stand a decent chance of gaining half a dozen or so seats in Scotland.
The 19% lead is the biggest Tory lead with YouGov in eight years.
Normal people that seem to understand the public are in charge. Hammond & May could be the dependable bank manager and headmistress in an old English town.
Indeed - people think May's policies are essentially the same as Cameron's but she has the added attraction of appearing diligent, hard working and relatively more ordinary / normal.
As opposed to Cameron appearing complacent, lazy and posh / out of touch.
Of course when it came to the crunch enough people backed Cameron (because they trusted him on policy and recognised his exceptional leadership qualities) but May's personal qualities make it easier for marginal voters to vote Con.
I think May embodies what people (not all Tory voters) like about the Conservatives: sensible, appearing to put the country ahead of political games, careful with the purse-strings but at the same time not un-caring about normal people. Like isam says, she puts in mind the headmistress who's strict and works the pupils hard, but ultimately wants the best for them.
Cameron sometimes had a few of those qualities, but most of the time, he (and Osborne all of the time) embodied what people disliked about the party: uncaring about anyone less privileged or who depended on public services, nasty, always playing political games.
That YouGov poll was conducted entirely after the budget.
But some before the negative headlines this morning?
Why should people be influenced by such headlines. Is the nation thick ?
It's all about the narrative, and the headlines feed into that.
Whateasily lead sheep the people are. No wonder Cummings stuck such crap about £350 million for the NHS on the side of a bus.
It was an effective strategy - the remain camp didn't have a response. When they countered it by saying "but it's only £150mn a week!" it still sounded like a lot of money.
The @YouGov@thetimes poll more voters believed that a government led by Corbyn would be better at reducing the number of people in poverty.
Under the leadership of Comrade Corbyn there would be no poverty ever, anywhere, just as there is not in North Korea of course, everyone's life would be planned to perfection by the Great Leader!
That YouGov poll was conducted entirely after the budget.
But some before the negative headlines this morning?
Why should people be influenced by such headlines. Is the nation thick ?
It's all about the narrative, and the headlines feed into that.
Whateasily lead sheep the people are. No wonder Cummings stuck such crap about £350 million for the NHS on the side of a bus.
It was an effective strategy - the remain camp didn't have a response. When they countered it by saying "but it's only £150mn a week!" it still sounded like a lot of money.
When I worked on Romford Market as a schoolboy my boss always used to get the teas in for us and the stall next door, and the stallholder next door used to say he'd chip in half at the end of the week, but always "forgot"
One day when he hadn't paid his dues for a fortnight or so, my boss asked for the £25 he owed him. Quick as a flash he said "it's only £21"... bang! He had his dough!
Comments
Fraser Nelson an illustration of how out of it you can become if you talk only to your own pals down in London. He said the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon were "tanking". Today's MORI poll shows Sturgeon as easily the most popular leader and independence at 50 per cent and the SNP set for another massive victory in the local elections!
Nelson is a Scot who went down to London to make his fortune and spends his time talking Scotland down. Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh is a Londoner who came to Scotland and spends her time talking Scotland up.
I know which one I prefer.
Hurrah.
Voters sent a message I guess
https://twitter.com/olivercoppard/status/839988278921199616
https://twitter.com/olivercoppard/status/839988278921199616
Up 2% from last week
Have to say that serves McDonnell & Corbyn right for being so damn opportunistic, opposing something they obviously would privately support.
Politicians lie - same old same old
But we are paye
They'll all sell their soul for a headline or a sound bite
I'm not even allowed on PB for the next 4 days.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
Con 44 (+2) Lab 25 (nc) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 11 (-1)
Fieldwork Wed & Thu of this week
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1931
CON 391
LAB 172
LD 8 (titters)
UKIP 0
GRN 1
SNP 56
Majority of 132.
Just a bit of fun, of course..
As opposed to Cameron appearing complacent, lazy and posh / out of touch.
Of course when it came to the crunch enough people backed Cameron (because they trusted him on policy and recognised his exceptional leadership qualities) but May's personal qualities make it easier for marginal voters to vote Con.
https://twitter.com/lizleffman/status/839995539307540482
Get rid of the utterly useless Jezza and McIRA and replace them with Nandy and Chuka and the game changes, almost overnight.
Of course local byelections are still telling a different story.
The @YouGov @thetimes poll more voters believed that a government led by Corbyn would be better at reducing the number of people in poverty.
I want to see consistent 25 point Tory leads to trigger a Jezza challenge/resignation.
Jezza is such a joke he can preside over 19pt government leads when economic confidence is -29%.
Of course it's Corbyn's favourite topic - but MORI Issues Index consistently shows it way down the list of most people's concerns.
Goodnight all.
(Which is to say, only in an extraordinary set of circumstances - though we do live in extraordinary times).
LDs are making a recovery where it matters, while Con is making inroads into exactly the demographics that would deliver northern and midlands seats by the bucketload. Con would also stand a decent chance of gaining half a dozen or so seats in Scotland.
Cameron sometimes had a few of those qualities, but most of the time, he (and Osborne all of the time) embodied what people disliked about the party: uncaring about anyone less privileged or who depended on public services, nasty, always playing political games.
Labour had 31% leads in early 1999
One day when he hadn't paid his dues for a fortnight or so, my boss asked for the £25 he owed him. Quick as a flash he said "it's only £21"... bang! He had his dough!
Waltham Cross
CON gain from Lab
9 March 2017
Conservative 650 41.0 -3.5
Labour 646 40.8 -14.8
UKIP 200 12.6 12.6
Lib Dem 89 5.6 5.6