Two thirds of citizens in Scotland that were not born there do not hold citizenship.
Polish born = 76,000 - 1.4% of population.
Today's MORI had No six points clear before weighting, and it is ipsos-Mori (remain to win by 8, Miliband in front until a fortnight before the GE).
Although MORI's final IndyRef poll was a 2% lead for No, compared with the final 11% lead.
Nah Ipsos Mori's final Indyref poll gave No a 6% lead.
Ipsos MORI is delighted to be the joint closest of the final polls on the Scottish independence referendum. Our final poll for The Evening Standard put No on 53% and Yes on 47%, compared with a final result of 55% for No and 45% for Yes. This is well within the margin of error for polls of this sample size.
Two thirds of citizens in Scotland that were not born there do not hold citizenship.
Polish born = 76,000 - 1.4% of population.
Today's MORI had No six points clear before weighting, and it is ipsos-Mori (remain to win by 8, Miliband in front until a fortnight before the GE).
Although MORI's final IndyRef poll was a 2% lead for No, compared with the final 11% lead.
Nah Ipsos Mori's final Indyref poll gave No a 6% lead.
Ipsos MORI is delighted to be the joint closest of the final polls on the Scottish independence referendum. Our final poll for The Evening Standard put No on 53% and Yes on 47%, compared with a final result of 55% for No and 45% for Yes. This is well within the margin of error for polls of this sample size.
I personally met two kinds of EU citizens living in Scotland during the Referendum: those who chose not to vote as they thought it was none of their business and those who were voting No as they'd been told the Nazi SNP would throw them out of the country.
Two thirds of citizens in Scotland that were not born there do not hold citizenship.
Polish born = 76,000 - 1.4% of population.
Today's MORI had No six points clear before weighting, and it is ipsos-Mori (remain to win by 8, Miliband in front until a fortnight before the GE).
Although MORI's final IndyRef poll was a 2% lead for No, compared with the final 11% lead.
Nah Ipsos Mori's final Indyref poll gave No a 6% lead.
Ipsos MORI is delighted to be the joint closest of the final polls on the Scottish independence referendum. Our final poll for The Evening Standard put No on 53% and Yes on 47%, compared with a final result of 55% for No and 45% for Yes. This is well within the margin of error for polls of this sample size.
SE NICs need reform .A huge number of very highly paid people are abusing the current system.
I think that's right. And another group who get away scot free is people who go on working after 65 (like me). Like everyone else, I benefit from a variety of things partly funded by NI, and I pay higher rate tax. Why do people like me pay not a penny in NI?
The Tories are not going to take on pensioners while they represent their key source of votes.
Nick is right, both in terms of what is right, and what is politically possible. I'm of an age where I know a lot of people of pensionable age who are still working (many of them highly paid). I don't think a single one of them would object to paying NI. In fact, it normally comes as a complete surprise to them when they find they don't have to pay NI when they continue working after retirement age.
In political terms, it's a no-brainer. It completely baffles me that no major party advocates fixing this quite absurd anomaly.
Given her own arbitrary timeline was the end of this month, IIRC, then a report to move it up to 'get on' with it would surely be a distraction measure.
Very interesting leaking of Dave's private polling from 2015
The reason Cameron was so resolute on this point was because the Tories had commissioned post-election polling from Crosby-Textor-Fullbrook asking the public what they expected of the government.
CTF found that the key voter desire was for the government to deliver on promises. Whatever sophistry they now spin voters understood the Tory tax lock promise was no VAT, National Insurance or income tax rises. Theresa May was sat opposite David Cameron when he delivered his pollster’s key message whilst waving the manifesto in front of her – she is now defying Dave’s warning and allowing Hammond to trash the Tory brand…
Very interesting leaking of Dave's private polling from 2015
The reason Cameron was so resolute on this point was because the Tories had commissioned post-election polling from Crosby-Textor-Fullbrook asking the public what they expected of the government.
CTF found that the key voter desire was for the government to deliver on promises. Whatever sophistry they now spin voters understood the Tory tax lock promise was no VAT, National Insurance or income tax rises. Theresa May was sat opposite David Cameron when he delivered his pollster’s key message whilst waving the manifesto in front of her – she is now defying Dave’s warning and allowing Hammond to trash the Tory brand…
None of this would have happened in the first place without Dave's absurd manifesto commitment to keep all taxes down and cut IHT while supporting the NHS and social care, something had to give
What bunch of wimps. We're fucked with Brexit if this is the level of backing down May performs when under the most minute particle of pressure.
Well, it is the Mail. The headline was either going to be 'May crushes NI rebels' or 'May retreats after just 24 hours'. Probably both in successive editions, and neither much related to reality.
Did anyone watch the Laura Kuenssberg Brexit documentary, btw?
Quite a scary but plausible suggestion was made in it: The Brexit negotiations (such as they are) might be over within WEEKS of Article 50 being triggered. The scenario being that the EU demand £50bn or something, the UK responds "no way", then the EU says "in that case we have nothing more to discuss", and we suddenly come out with no deal or preparation time at all.
The 24hrs News cycle, social media, and partisan point scoring paralyses politics in this country. Oh for a leader who just says "Fuck it, I'm doing it because I think its right. Vote for someone else if you don't like it"
Did anyone watch the Laura Kuenssberg Brexit documentary, btw?
Quite a scary but plausible suggestion was made in it: The Brexit negotiations (such as they are) might be over within WEEKS of Article 50 being triggered. The scenario being that the EU demand £50bn or something, the UK responds "no way", then the EU says "in that case we have nothing more to discuss", and we suddenly come out with no deal or preparation time at all.
Government lawyers have already said there is no obligation to provide that high a sum without a deal and I expect most voters will say 'Sod off EU then!'
The 24hrs News cycle, social media, and partisan point scoring paralyses politics in this country. Oh for a leader who just says "Fuck it, I'm doing it because I think its right. Vote for someone else if you don't like it"
Did anyone watch the Laura Kuenssberg Brexit documentary, btw?
Quite a scary but plausible suggestion was made in it: The Brexit negotiations (such as they are) might be over within WEEKS of Article 50 being triggered. The scenario being that the EU demand £50bn or something, the UK responds "no way", then the EU says "in that case we have nothing more to discuss", and we suddenly come out with no deal or preparation time at all.
good. a 2 year divorce shows EU is utterly unfit for purpose. The home for the Liberal elite
What bunch of wimps. We're fucked with Brexit if this is the level of backing down May performs when under the most minute particle of pressure.
Read the smallprint, there is no retreat she has just delayed it to the autumn to shut the hysterical headless chicken press up
I can picture you saying in 12 months time that she's not retreating, just delaying her demand for a job offer for EU citizens...
Brexit negotiations will probably still be ongoing in 12 months time and as I said earlier she will not retreat on free movement controls even in the form of a job offer or she will lose over half her voters to UKIP
The 24hrs News cycle, social media, and partisan point scoring paralyses politics in this country. Oh for a leader who just says "Fuck it, I'm doing it because I think its right. Vote for someone else if you don't like it"
It is what Trump has done in the USA.
Well I can see why it worked. Why do politicians try to be all things to all people? It is bullshit!
Why couldn't Corbyn just say he hated Nuclear power in Copeland for instance? We all knew it, but he just couldn't say it... UKIP are getting a bit like it too it seems. Just go for it free market style!
So on OGH's 'first electoral test following the budget' which is the subject of this thread the Tories have held off the LDs in Exton, perhaps May and Hammond have even got a post budget bounce?
Did anyone watch the Laura Kuenssberg Brexit documentary, btw?
Quite a scary but plausible suggestion was made in it: The Brexit negotiations (such as they are) might be over within WEEKS of Article 50 being triggered. The scenario being that the EU demand £50bn or something, the UK responds "no way", then the EU says "in that case we have nothing more to discuss", and we suddenly come out with no deal or preparation time at all.
... and the EU comes away with £0, massive disruption to their commerce, huge write-downs on their investments in the UK, utter confusion over the rights of their citizens here, disruption to their anti-terrorism and defence efforts, and no access to their main source of financial expertise and capital-raising.
One has to hope that they are not completely bonkers.
Did anyone watch the Laura Kuenssberg Brexit documentary, btw?
Quite a scary but plausible suggestion was made in it: The Brexit negotiations (such as they are) might be over within WEEKS of Article 50 being triggered. The scenario being that the EU demand £50bn or something, the UK responds "no way", then the EU says "in that case we have nothing more to discuss", and we suddenly come out with no deal or preparation time at all.
Surely no-one would respond "No way". They'd be enquiring what was being offered in return for such vast largesse, wouldn't they?
So on OGH's 'first electoral test following the budget' which is the subject of this thread the Tories have held off the LDs in Exton, perhaps May and Hammond have even got a post budget bounce?
The 24hrs News cycle, social media, and partisan point scoring paralyses politics in this country. Oh for a leader who just says "Fuck it, I'm doing it because I think its right. Vote for someone else if you don't like it"
I reckon everyone's just over-excited, like tired children, and seizing on anything that crops up to get in a paddy about.
The 24hrs News cycle, social media, and partisan point scoring paralyses politics in this country. Oh for a leader who just says "Fuck it, I'm doing it because I think its right. Vote for someone else if you don't like it"
I reckon everyone's just over-excited, like tired children, and seizing on anything that crops up to get in a paddy about.
Everything is a headline nowadays, it is so tiresome
I don't like to use the phrase, but all this razzamatazz and sensationalism... it's just not British!
If Le Pen's support collapses, where do her votes go? I don't reckon either Fillon or Macron would take many. Mélenchon and Dupont-Aignan might get some though.
The French ambassador to Japan says in Le Monde that he will refuse to serve if Le Pen becomes president. I wonder who will pay his pension? The French ambassador to the US writes in the Washington Post that the election of Le Pen would be a "total disaster". All we need now is a statement by the French ambassador to the EU and we'd have a triple! If I were a journalist I'd call his office and ask whether he agrees with his two ambassadorial colleagues.
If Le Pen's support collapses, where do her votes go? I don't reckon either Fillon or Macron would take many.
The French ambassador to Japan says in Le Monde that he will refuse to serve if Le Pen becomes president. I wonder who will pay his pension? The French ambassador to the US writes in the Washington Post that the election of Le Pen would be a "total disaster".
Well at least if she does win we won't have to worry about Brexit because the EU will collapse within 5 minutes anyway! Macron is the most likely winner but the consequences of a Le Pen win would be huge for the EU and for NATO and would also most likely be a hammer blow for global free trade
Did anyone watch the Laura Kuenssberg Brexit documentary, btw?
Quite a scary but plausible suggestion was made in it: The Brexit negotiations (such as they are) might be over within WEEKS of Article 50 being triggered. The scenario being that the EU demand £50bn or something, the UK responds "no way", then the EU says "in that case we have nothing more to discuss", and we suddenly come out with no deal or preparation time at all.
... and the EU comes away with £0, massive disruption to their commerce, huge write-downs on their investments in the UK, utter confusion over the rights of their citizens here, disruption to their anti-terrorism and defence efforts, and no access to their main source of financial expertise and capital-raising.
One has to hope that they are not completely bonkers.
What is to stop the EU putting a dire deal (no deal) on the table in the hope we change our mind in the 24-month A50 transition? Surely that is exactly what game theory suggests they should do
The 24hrs News cycle, social media, and partisan point scoring paralyses politics in this country. Oh for a leader who just says "Fuck it, I'm doing it because I think its right. Vote for someone else if you don't like it"
Yes, that's part of Corbyn's appeal for me. But...
@election_data: Just a reminder, before YouGov's poll tomorrow, that 47% of ,Labour members told me Mr Corbyn should step down if Tories lead by 20%
Well well. It would seem, contrary to the media reports, people quite like the idea of a tax-raising Budget.
PAYE employees realise how much more tax (And if the 'bedroom tax' can be called a tax then NI sure as hell can be) they're paying now. The cat is out the bag.
Sounds like a whopping YouGov on its way. 20% lead?
Tory vote actually held up ok in W Oxon - without knowing more about the 33% Indy from 2016 difficult to say what the underlying swing is. But Tory losses to LDs and gains from Lab seem to be the SOP at the moment.
The 24hrs News cycle, social media, and partisan point scoring paralyses politics in this country. Oh for a leader who just says "Fuck it, I'm doing it because I think its right. Vote for someone else if you don't like it"
Yes, that's part of Corbyn's appeal for me. But...
The 24hrs News cycle, social media, and partisan point scoring paralyses politics in this country. Oh for a leader who just says "Fuck it, I'm doing it because I think its right. Vote for someone else if you don't like it"
Yes, that's part of Corbyn's appeal for me. But...
Sounds like a whopping YouGov on its way. 20% lead?
Tory vote actually held up ok in W Oxon - without knowing more about the 33% Indy from 2016 difficult to say what the underlying swing is. But Tory losses to LDs and gains from Lab seem to be the SOP at the moment.
If Le Pen's support collapses, where do her votes go? I don't reckon either Fillon or Macron would take many.
Dupont-Aignon, non? Dupont-Aignan?
I'm trying to hold back from talking about Dupont-Aignan too much, but boy will I enjoy doing a Nigel Farage impression and saying to everyone "You're not laughing at me now" if he wins
Did anyone watch the Laura Kuenssberg Brexit documentary, btw?
Quite a scary but plausible suggestion was made in it: The Brexit negotiations (such as they are) might be over within WEEKS of Article 50 being triggered. The scenario being that the EU demand £50bn or something, the UK responds "no way", then the EU says "in that case we have nothing more to discuss", and we suddenly come out with no deal or preparation time at all.
Government lawyers have already said there is no obligation to provide that high a sum without a deal and I expect most voters will say 'Sod off EU then!'
Lets hope for all our sakes it wasn't the same government lawyers that assured us Mrs May had the right to trigger A50 without parliamentary approval
Sounds like a whopping YouGov on its way. 20% lead?
Tory vote actually held up ok in W Oxon - without knowing more about the 33% Indy from 2016 difficult to say what the underlying swing is. But Tory losses to LDs and gains from Lab seem to be the SOP at the moment.
The 24hrs News cycle, social media, and partisan point scoring paralyses politics in this country. Oh for a leader who just says "Fuck it, I'm doing it because I think its right. Vote for someone else if you don't like it"
Yes, that's part of Corbyn's appeal for me. But...
But, as I said in my edit, he didn't have the bollocks to just say what he thought re nuclear in Copeland, or on Brexit. This is his BIG chance, his free hit, his time to shine and he is not even going for it, just alienating EVERYONE!!
@election_data: Just a reminder, before YouGov's poll tomorrow, that 47% of ,Labour members told me Mr Corbyn should step down if Tories lead by 20%
Well well. It would seem, contrary to the media reports, people quite like the idea of a tax-raising Budget.
PAYE employees realise how much more tax (And if the 'bedroom tax' can be called a tax then NI sure as hell can be) they're paying now. The cat is out the bag.
I'm still bemused why there's so much fuss about this thing hitting WELL-PAID self-employed people who can well afford the hit, while so little fuss about the business rates fiasco, which actually is going to force small High Street businesses (and their generally lower-paid workers) to go under.
Did anyone watch the Laura Kuenssberg Brexit documentary, btw?
Quite a scary but plausible suggestion was made in it: The Brexit negotiations (such as they are) might be over within WEEKS of Article 50 being triggered. The scenario being that the EU demand £50bn or something, the UK responds "no way", then the EU says "in that case we have nothing more to discuss", and we suddenly come out with no deal or preparation time at all.
Government lawyers have already said there is no obligation to provide that high a sum without a deal and I expect most voters will say 'Sod off EU then!'
Lets hope for all our sakes it wasn't the same government lawyers that assured us Mrs May had the right to trigger A50 without parliamentary approval
Comments
If it was a choice between kicking the Tories for a very short term hit, or doing the right thing, I think we all know which way a Labour MP would go.
I met only 1 EU Citizen voting Yes.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/839961067165982720
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/839962030618660864
Congress Warns Donald Trump: Stop Deleting Your Tweets
By doing so, Trump and his staff may be violating federal record keeping laws.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-tweets-archived_us_58c1a8d3e4b0d1078ca51126?section=politics
If it is the line which is the problem it is the responsibility of a publically owned company not a private company
In political terms, it's a no-brainer. It completely baffles me that no major party advocates fixing this quite absurd anomaly.
Treasury apparently saying May's advisers have "anti-Tory ideas".
Boris - EU can forget vast payments into their budget.
Then why did they try to stop people's tax credits mere WEEKS after winning an election on a promise to leave tax credits alone...
The reason Cameron was so resolute on this point was because the Tories had commissioned post-election polling from Crosby-Textor-Fullbrook asking the public what they expected of the government.
CTF found that the key voter desire was for the government to deliver on promises. Whatever sophistry they now spin voters understood the Tory tax lock promise was no VAT, National Insurance or income tax rises. Theresa May was sat opposite David Cameron when he delivered his pollster’s key message whilst waving the manifesto in front of her – she is now defying Dave’s warning and allowing Hammond to trash the Tory brand…
https://order-order.com/2017/03/09/tory-internal-polling-showed-keeping-promises-was-key-desire-of-public/
"People are making a big deal out of nothing, I'm not really bothered, give them some wiggle room"
Quite a scary but plausible suggestion was made in it: The Brexit negotiations (such as they are) might be over within WEEKS of Article 50 being triggered. The scenario being that the EU demand £50bn or something, the UK responds "no way", then the EU says "in that case we have nothing more to discuss", and we suddenly come out with no deal or preparation time at all.
Commons considering EU Lords amendments on Monday straight after Defence Questions and 10 Minute motion. So looks like approx 4pm start.
Lords timetable not yet known - not sure if it could go back to the Lords on Monday evening - I guess Tuesday more likely.
Con 238
LDem 123
UKIP 39
West Oxon is a LDem gain from Con
Why couldn't Corbyn just say he hated Nuclear power in Copeland for instance? We all knew it, but he just couldn't say it... UKIP are getting a bit like it too it seems. Just go for it free market style!
One has to hope that they are not completely bonkers.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/839980244627009536
I don't like to use the phrase, but all this razzamatazz and sensationalism... it's just not British!
The French ambassador to Japan says in Le Monde that he will refuse to serve if Le Pen becomes president. I wonder who will pay his pension? The French ambassador to the US writes in the Washington Post that the election of Le Pen would be a "total disaster". All we need now is a statement by the French ambassador to the EU and we'd have a triple! If I were a journalist I'd call his office and ask whether he agrees with his two ambassadorial colleagues.
Another great example of Corbynism reaching the parts that other factions of the Labour movement cannot reach.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/839983350936920064
Tory vote actually held up ok in W Oxon - without knowing more about the 33% Indy from 2016 difficult to say what the underlying swing is. But Tory losses to LDs and gains from Lab seem to be the SOP at the moment.
@britainelects
Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield (W. Oxfordshire):
LD: 46.7% (+34.0)
CON: 41.5% (+3.8)
LAB: 5.8% (-4.5)
GRN: 3.1% (-2.8)
UKIP: 2.9% (+2.9)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/839986183132323840