America, good luck for the next three four years. You're going to need it.
Don't you mean 8 years ?
Well, it's not guaranteed he'll win a second term.
On the assumption he will be facing someone better than Hilary Clinton next time (and let's face it, a monkey on a stick would be better and probably have fewer legal problems) it's hard to imagine he'll win a second term!
America, good luck for the next three four years. You're going to need it.
Trump wont make four years. He'll be impeached.
My father is convinced he will be assassinated.
V v difficult these days.
Become member of posh Florida golf and country club....make dinner reservations for any Saturday night...claim to be connected to the Russian ambassador...
America, good luck for the next three four years. You're going to need it.
I genuinely don't know how you deal with someone in such an important position who lies as easily as he breathes. It's unprecedented in recent times - he is very clever insofar as he understands that his core support simply believe him without bothering to verify anything he ever says or asking for any evidence. Frightening to think where it could end.
Because she's clearly a powerful figure in his administration and is a much more unifying figure than her father. (This scenario supposes that he survives a full term.)
America, good luck for the next three four years. You're going to need it.
I genuinely don't know how you deal with someone in such an important position who lies as easily as he breathes. It's unprecedented in recent times - he is very clever insofar as he understands that his core support simply believe him without bothering to verify anything he ever says or asking for any evidence. Frightening to think where it could end.
Its the lies that can be so easily fact checked that get me....I had the biggest election win ever...no you didn't...well since Regan...no you didn't...I was talking about Republican win...nope still you didn't...
Most politicians lie, but its the way they tell'em...either leaves wiggle room or are very difficult to establish with 100% certainty it is a lie...but Trump just constantly makes absolute claims which are easy to check.
@Morris_Dancer and @ydoethur thanks! It's hard to believe that it was only Tuesday night/Wednesday morning that many were talking about how his Congress speech could be a turning point.
America, good luck for the next three four years. You're going to need it.
Trump wont make four years. He'll be impeached.
Getting impeached doesn't actually mean he'll have to leave office though, does it?
Only if convicted, which has never happened as it requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate. In practice they generally vote on partisan lines and there is seldom a split that large. Even if it is, that's no guarantee of a conviction. When Clinton was on trial, five Republicans supported him out of the feeling that (a) it had gone too far and (b) the whole thing was a massive distraction that the country should move on from.
No president has ever left office due to impeachment (although Nixon would surely have done so if he hadn't resigned - technically that happened before being impeached, however).
Ms. Apocalypse, nevertheless, the speech (of Trump's) was of interest, because it showed he could deliver one that was broadly respected and more along, shall we say, traditional presidential lines.
Ms. Apocalypse, nevertheless, the speech (of Trump's) was of interest, because it showed he could deliver one that was broadly respected and more along, shall we say, traditional presidential lines.
I liked the Bill Maher gag on Friday that what actually happened was a PWC employee gave the wrong speech to the teleprompter operator.
America, good luck for the next three four years. You're going to need it.
I genuinely don't know how you deal with someone in such an important position who lies as easily as he breathes. It's unprecedented in recent times - he is very clever insofar as he understands that his core support simply believe him without bothering to verify anything he ever says or asking for any evidence. Frightening to think where it could end.
Yep, I totally agree. This whole 'wire tapping' accusation is like a re-run of his voter fraud allegations.
According to Carl Bernstein many Republicans on the hill are very concerned about Trump's mental state.
Because she's clearly a powerful figure in his administration and is a much more unifying figure than her father. (This scenario supposes that he survives a full term.)
From a w*nker to Ivanka? It has a certain ring to it...
I feel some sympathy for the envelope bunglers, but why the hell weren't they paying attention? Mind you, from what I've heard it sounds like the chap reading it saw something seemed wrong and handed it to the lady to read out, which is also dodgy.
Still not as stupid as the F1 qualifying at the start of last season.
Because she's clearly a powerful figure in his administration and is a much more unifying figure than her father. (This scenario supposes that he survives a full term.)
Is she that powerful? The reports in the press seem to indicate that the guys running the show so far are Bannon and Miller.
I agree that's she a much more unifying figure though.
Surely, if Trump doesn't survive the next four years, it will be Pence who gets to be POTUS. If it's not him then Paul Ryan (or whoever else is speaker of the house). The only way I see it being Ivanka is if she runs in the primaries and wins.
Because she's clearly a powerful figure in his administration and is a much more unifying figure than her father. (This scenario supposes that he survives a full term.)
From a w*nker to Ivanka? It has a certain ring to it...
It would be terribly ironic if an indirect consequence of Clinton's failed campaign is that Ivanka Trump becomes the first female President.
I feel some sympathy for the envelope bunglers, but why the hell weren't they paying attention? Mind you, from what I've heard it sounds like the chap reading it saw something seemed wrong and handed it to the lady to read out, which is also dodgy.
Still not as stupid as the F1 qualifying at the start of last season.
The way the envelope bunglers have been treated frustrates me. Yes, they mucked up, but failures are almost never the result of one person's actions, but a combination of a series of causal factors that culminate in their actions.
As an example, I bet next year the envelopes and the cards inside will have much clearer descriptions of what the f they're for. But it's easier to blame the individuals ...
America, good luck for the next three four years. You're going to need it.
I genuinely don't know how you deal with someone in such an important position who lies as easily as he breathes. It's unprecedented in recent times - he is very clever insofar as he understands that his core support simply believe him without bothering to verify anything he ever says or asking for any evidence. Frightening to think where it could end.
Yep, I totally agree. This whole 'wire tapping' accusation is like a re-run of his voter fraud allegations.
According to Carl Bernstein many Republicans on the hill are very concerned about Trump's mental state.
Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, predicted that Trump would win well before anyone thought it was conceivable, let alone likely. This is what he said:
"I see a flamethrower, the flamethrower guy wins in a stick fight…
"The idea of the Master Wizard Hypothesis says there are some people in the world, living people, masters of persuasion, they’ve got a linguistic gift for influencing people. And they are using actual techniques.
"What I [see] in Trump is someone who was highly trained. A lot of the things that the media were reporting as sort of random insults and bluster and just Trump being Trump, looked to me like a lot of deep technique that I recognized from the fields of hypnosis and persuasion."
I believe that Adams was, in the last sentence, referring to Cialdini's seminal work on 'compliance professionals', his book the Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion . It has sat on my bookshelf for a while, but recent events have persuaded me to read it. I am beginning to think that Adams was onto something. Trump uses a lot of flamethrowers.
PS Important addition to the Adams quote:
"So his complete ignoring of facts are actually part of the persuasion because he doesn’t give you targets. He doesn’t give you details of his policies, usually. So he’s reducing the number of targets while making you feel good and focusing on the things he wants. So it’s not about facts, it’s about focus and attention."
Because she's clearly a powerful figure in his administration and is a much more unifying figure than her father. (This scenario supposes that he survives a full term.)
Is she that powerful? The reports in the press seem to indicate that the guys running the show so far are Bannon and Miller.
I agree that's she a much more unifying figure though.
Surely, if Trump doesn't survive the next four years, it will be Pence who gets to be POTUS. If it's not him then Paul Ryan (or whoever else is speaker of the house). The only way I see it being Ivanka is if she runs in the primaries and wins.
Yes, it will be Pence if Trump is 'got' ( I don;t think he will be).
Ivanka is an idea straight out of Don Brind fantasy land.
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
On the other hand photographic evidence has emerged
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
On the other hand photographic evidence has emerged
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
On the other hand photographic evidence has emerged
Tremendous article in today's Sunday Times by David Goodhart. Classifies people as Somewheres or Anywheres: reckoning that those who support national identity and putting our country first to be about 60% of our population, 'Anywheres' prioritising internationalism etc at around 25%.
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
On the other hand photographic evidence has emerged
FPT Artist said: 'It doesn't seem encouraging at all to me. Things were going OK for Corbyn in February 2016, if you look at the YouGov's during the last leadership contest, the released figures from Election Data so far don't show much of a drop at all. Corbyn would still win against a moderate by roughly 55/45, unbelievable. '
A Yougov poll of Labour members at the end of August 2016 showed 52% wanting to see him lead Labour into the next election. 41% did not. Today's poll has only 44% wanting him as leader at the election compared with 50% who do not. That represents a 9% swing against Corbyn in 6 months when Don't Knows are excluded.Pretty close to a tipping point I would think.
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
On the other hand photographic evidence has emerged
twitter.com/45jonnyboy/status/838352840393306113
LOL.
LOL indeed.
Is that his real decor? It's hideous. Almost an impeachable offence on its own!
"it would break a few irony meters if Fillon quit the race for alleged financial impropriety and was replaced as Les Republicans candidate by someone with a conviction for misuse of public funds"
It would suggest that LR aren't taking the big decisions concerning who represents LR.
Whether Fillon stays in or withdraws, the question is what will happen to his support. Will it stay with the LR candidate, whether it's him or someone else, or might it leak in someone else's direction? If there's a classic "men in dark suits" stabbing, populism may win out.
"Si on retire Fillon, les gens voteront pour un petit candidat au premier tour, Dupont Aignan et Le Pen au deuxième tour", estime cette femme de 68 ans, pour qui "l'autorité judiciaire confisque la démocratie en empêchant Fillon de parler de son programme."
"If they pull Fillon out of the race, people will vote for a small candidate in the first round, Dupont-Aignan, and for Le Pen in the second Round", said this woman, 68, for whom "the judges are undermining democracy by preventing Fillon from speaking about his programme" (emphasis added)
I doubt that Dupont-Aignan will even need 10% in the polls to get into the TF1 TV debate on 20 March. 7-8% should be enough.
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
On the other hand photographic evidence has emerged
twitter.com/45jonnyboy/status/838352840393306113
LOL.
LOL indeed.
We're talking here about the biggest, loosest gun on the planet. And should he keep an eye on Arnold Schwarzenegger too?
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
On the other hand photographic evidence has emerged
twitter.com/45jonnyboy/status/838352840393306113
LOL.
LOL indeed.
Is that his real decor? It's hideous. Almost an impeachable offence on its own!
Have you never seen the footage of his penthouse...The whole place is like that.
America, good luck for the next three four years. You're going to need it.
I genuinely don't know how you deal with someone in such an important position who lies as easily as he breathes. It's unprecedented in recent times - he is very clever insofar as he understands that his core support simply believe him without bothering to verify anything he ever says or asking for any evidence. Frightening to think where it could end.
Yep, I totally agree. This whole 'wire tapping' accusation is like a re-run of his voter fraud allegations.
According to Carl Bernstein many Republicans on the hill are very concerned about Trump's mental state.
Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, predicted that Trump would win well before anyone thought it was conceivable, let alone likely. This is what he said:
"I see a flamethrower, the flamethrower guy wins in a stick fight…
"The idea of the Master Wizard Hypothesis says there are some people in the world, living people, masters of persuasion, they’ve got a linguistic gift for influencing people. And they are using actual techniques.
"What I [see] in Trump is someone who was highly trained. A lot of the things that the media were reporting as sort of random insults and bluster and just Trump being Trump, looked to me like a lot of deep technique that I recognized from the fields of hypnosis and persuasion."
I believe that Adams was, in the last sentence, referring to Cialdini's seminal work on 'compliance professionals', his book the Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion . It has sat on my bookshelf for a while, but recent events have persuaded me to read it. I am beginning to think that Adams was onto something. Trump uses a lot of flamethrowers.
PS Important addition to the Adams quote:
"So his complete ignoring of facts are actually part of the persuasion because he doesn’t give you targets. He doesn’t give you details of his policies, usually. So he’s reducing the number of targets while making you feel good and focusing on the things he wants. So it’s not about facts, it’s about focus and attention."
The notions that Trump's lies are a diversionary tactic isn't something that his critics don't know. The trouble with this strategy, isn't that it doesn't shift the focus away from 'bad stories', it just creates a new bad story to focus on.
Also, and in regard to Russia story it certainly isn't a sustainable strategy long-term. That story just keeps coming back, and no amount of diverting has really changed that. It certainly didn't help save Michael Flynn.
America, good luck for the next three four years. You're going to need it.
Trump wont make four years. He'll be impeached.
Getting impeached doesn't actually mean he'll have to leave office though, does it?
Only if convicted, which has never happened as it requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate. In practice they generally vote on partisan lines and there is seldom a split that large. Even if it is, that's no guarantee of a conviction. When Clinton was on trial, five Republicans supported him out of the feeling that (a) it had gone too far and (b) the whole thing was a massive distraction that the country should move on from.
No president has ever left office due to impeachment (although Nixon would surely have done so if he hadn't resigned - technically that happened before being impeached, however).
He will do all right and get re-elected. He is now calling Obama's bluff, he was sneaking about spying on people, Democrats all over the Russians. They are scumbagas and hopefully Trump causes plenty of hassle for them over the next 4 or 8 years.
"it would break a few irony meters if Fillon quit the race for alleged financial impropriety and was replaced as Les Republicans candidate by someone with a conviction for misuse of public funds"
It would suggest that LR aren't taking the big decisions concerning who represents LR.
Whether Fillon stays in or withdraws, the question is what will happen to his support. Will it stay with the LR candidate, whether it's him or someone else, or might it leak in someone else's direction? If there's a classic "men in dark suits" stabbing, populism may win out.
"Si on retire Fillon, les gens voteront pour un petit candidat au premier tour, Dupont Aignan et Le Pen au deuxième tour", estime cette femme de 68 ans, pour qui "l'autorité judiciaire confisque la démocratie en empêchant Fillon de parler de son programme."
"If they pull Fillon out of the race, people will vote for a small candidate in the first round, Dupont-Aignan, and for Le Pen in the second Round", said this woman, 68, for whom "the judges are undermining democracy by preventing Fillon from speaking about his programme" (emphasis added)
I doubt that Dupont-Aignan will even need 10% in the polls to get into the TF1 TV debate on 20 March. 7-8% should be enough.
I like M. D-A, who manages to be Eurosceptic without being antisemitic, and who doesn't believe that France's biggest problems are a lack of government regulation and too much free trade.
If Fillon does depart for Juppe, M. D-A will not doubt gain somewhat; but how much? 2% 3%?
I also suspect that M. D-A may split the French Eurosceptic vote. If Mme Le Pen loses 5 points to D-A, you could easily end up with a Macron-Juppe last two.
FPT Artist said: 'It doesn't seem encouraging at all to me. Things were going OK for Corbyn in February 2016, if you look at the YouGov's during the last leadership contest, the released figures from Election Data so far don't show much of a drop at all. Corbyn would still win against a moderate by roughly 55/45, unbelievable. '
A Yougov poll of Labour members at the end of August 2016 showed 52% wanting to see him lead Labour into the next election. 41% did not. Today's poll has only 44% wanting him as leader at the election compared with 50% who do not. That represents a 9% swing against Corbyn in 6 months when Don't Knows are excluded.Pretty close to a tipping point I would think.
It's only going one way. He was supported by 72% of members in February 2016; it's 54% now.
Frankly, I'd be surprised if Obama wasn't snooping in some way on the Trump campaign. This is the US that we're talking about. Of course, Trump was undoubtedly reciprocating. Why is anyone up in arms about this?
French stuff - if Juppe gets the gig, would we expect both Macron and Le Pen's odds to lengthen?
Things we know about Juppe: he's quite poor in debates; he's hardly untainted from a corruption perspective; he's arguing for no real change except a little more competence; he's been a competent mayor of Bordeaux.
He's also personally popular and competes with Macron for the centre ground.
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
On the other hand photographic evidence has emerged
twitter.com/45jonnyboy/status/838352840393306113
LOL.
LOL indeed.
Is that his real decor? It's hideous. Almost an impeachable offence on its own!
Yes, that really is what the inside of his apartment looks like. (It's been on The Apprentice a number of times.)
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
On the other hand photographic evidence has emerged
twitter.com/45jonnyboy/status/838352840393306113
LOL.
LOL indeed.
Is that his real decor? It's hideous. Almost an impeachable offence on its own!
For me the names Ozymandias and Midas pop up. Wishful day dreaming no doubt.
Mr. 1000, Macron-Juppe would be a nice result (not for huge stakes, but every little helps).
I've just been continually selling Le Pen. The only time I was scared was when it looked like Hamon might take enough votes from Melanchon to make the second round. (Le Pen would beat Hamon.)
But right now (and I reserve the right to change my mind), I don't see how she doesn't lose by 20 points plus.
Interesting use of words...bit like the rebuttal of Obama.
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
On the other hand photographic evidence has emerged
twitter.com/45jonnyboy/status/838352840393306113
LOL.
LOL indeed.
Is that his real decor? It's hideous. Almost an impeachable offence on its own!
Yes, that really is what the inside of his apartment looks like. (It's been on The Apprentice a number of times.)
FPT Artist said: 'It doesn't seem encouraging at all to me. Things were going OK for Corbyn in February 2016, if you look at the YouGov's during the last leadership contest, the released figures from Election Data so far don't show much of a drop at all. Corbyn would still win against a moderate by roughly 55/45, unbelievable. '
A Yougov poll of Labour members at the end of August 2016 showed 52% wanting to see him lead Labour into the next election. 41% did not. Today's poll has only 44% wanting him as leader at the election compared with 50% who do not. That represents a 9% swing against Corbyn in 6 months when Don't Knows are excluded.Pretty close to a tipping point I would think.
Wouldn't that still be 53/47 and even then it may be overstated by people who don't want him to go immediately. The +17 approval in today's poll means there hasn't been a sea change against Corbyn just days/weeks after a terrible election result and supporting the Tories on Brexit.
Turkey's president has compared German officials to Nazis, in the latest escalation in a war of words. Recep Tayyip Erdogan hit out after German authorities cancelled rallies designed to woo ethnic Turkish voters in Germany ahead of a key referendum.
"Your practices are not different from the Nazi practices of the past," Mr Erdogan said.
Voters will be asked whether they back a new constitution, which would transform the country from a parliamentary republic to a presidential one.
That would give Mr Erdogan, as president, new powers over the budget, appointment of ministers and judges, and the power to dismiss parliament, among others.
FPT Artist said: 'It doesn't seem encouraging at all to me. Things were going OK for Corbyn in February 2016, if you look at the YouGov's during the last leadership contest, the released figures from Election Data so far don't show much of a drop at all. Corbyn would still win against a moderate by roughly 55/45, unbelievable. '
A Yougov poll of Labour members at the end of August 2016 showed 52% wanting to see him lead Labour into the next election. 41% did not. Today's poll has only 44% wanting him as leader at the election compared with 50% who do not. That represents a 9% swing against Corbyn in 6 months when Don't Knows are excluded.Pretty close to a tipping point I would think.
Wouldn't that still be 53/47 and even then it may be overstated by people who don't want him to go immediately. The +17 approval in today's poll means there hasn't been a sea change against Corbyn just days/weeks after a terrible election result and supporting the Tories on Brexit.
There will be an ocean change after we lose Gorton. Or, there will be another party. The Democrats.
Frankly, I'd be surprised if Obama wasn't snooping in some way on the Trump campaign. This is the US that we're talking about. Of course, Trump was undoubtedly reciprocating. Why is anyone up in arms about this?
Because the Democrats are vilifying Trump daily instead of just slinking off and licking their wounds.
Wendy's is adding self-service ordering kiosks "to at least 1,000 restaurants, or about 15% of its stores," reports the Los Angeles Times, while McDonald's and Panera Bread are now planning to add kiosks to every restaurant. "Lots of restaurants, not just fast-food chains, are really trying to mitigate the costs of higher wages," says one market research firm, while also citing a survey which found 40% of millennials willing to use kiosks (compared to 30% of restaurant-goers overall).
But in some cases this means more work for human employees. Quartz points out that McDonalds doesn't plan to reduce its workforce after installing kiosks, and Panera Bread "has said that at some locations where it has ordering kiosks, it has actually increased human hours to help the kitchen keep up with the higher number of orders that come in through the more efficient ordering system."
"it would break a few irony meters if Fillon quit the race for alleged financial impropriety and was replaced as Les Republicans candidate by someone with a conviction for misuse of public funds"
It would suggest that LR aren't taking the big decisions concerning who represents LR.
Whether Fillon stays in or withdraws, the question is what will happen to his support. Will it stay with the LR candidate, whether it's him or someone else, or might it leak in someone else's direction? If there's a classic "men in dark suits" stabbing, populism may win out.
"Si on retire Fillon, les gens voteront pour un petit candidat au premier tour, Dupont Aignan et Le Pen au deuxième tour", estime cette femme de 68 ans, pour qui "l'autorité judiciaire confisque la démocratie en empêchant Fillon de parler de son programme."
"If they pull Fillon out of the race, people will vote for a small candidate in the first round, Dupont-Aignan, and for Le Pen in the second Round", said this woman, 68, for whom "the judges are undermining democracy by preventing Fillon from speaking about his programme" (emphasis added)
I doubt that Dupont-Aignan will even need 10% in the polls to get into the TF1 TV debate on 20 March. 7-8% should be enough.
I like M. D-A, who manages to be Eurosceptic without being antisemitic, and who doesn't believe that France's biggest problems are a lack of government regulation and too much free trade.
If Fillon does depart for Juppe, M. D-A will not doubt gain somewhat; but how much? 2% 3%?
I also suspect that M. D-A may split the French Eurosceptic vote. If Mme Le Pen loses 5 points to D-A, you could easily end up with a Macron-Juppe last two.
"it would break a few irony meters if Fillon quit the race for alleged financial impropriety and was replaced as Les Republicans candidate by someone with a conviction for misuse of public funds"
It would suggest that LR aren't taking the big decisions concerning who represents LR.
Whether Fillon stays in or withdraws, the question is what will happen to his support. Will it stay with the LR candidate, whether it's him or someone else, or might it leak in someone else's direction? If there's a classic "men in dark suits" stabbing, populism may win out.
"Si on retire Fillon, les gens voteront pour un petit candidat au premier tour, Dupont Aignan et Le Pen au deuxième tour", estime cette femme de 68 ans, pour qui "l'autorité judiciaire confisque la démocratie en empêchant Fillon de parler de son programme."
"If they pull Fillon out of the race, people will vote for a small candidate in the first round, Dupont-Aignan, and for Le Pen in the second Round", said this woman, 68, for whom "the judges are undermining democracy by preventing Fillon from speaking about his programme" (emphasis added)
I doubt that Dupont-Aignan will even need 10% in the polls to get into the TF1 TV debate on 20 March. 7-8% should be enough.
I like M. D-A, who manages to be Eurosceptic without being antisemitic, and who doesn't believe that France's biggest problems are a lack of government regulation and too much free trade.
If Fillon does depart for Juppe, M. D-A will not doubt gain somewhat; but how much? 2% 3%?
I also suspect that M. D-A may split the French Eurosceptic vote. If Mme Le Pen loses 5 points to D-A, you could easily end up with a Macron-Juppe last two.
Turkey's president has compared German officials to Nazis, in the latest escalation in a war of words. Recep Tayyip Erdogan hit out after German authorities cancelled rallies designed to woo ethnic Turkish voters in Germany ahead of a key referendum.
"Your practices are not different from the Nazi practices of the past," Mr Erdogan said.
Voters will be asked whether they back a new constitution, which would transform the country from a parliamentary republic to a presidential one.
That would give Mr Erdogan, as president, new powers over the budget, appointment of ministers and judges, and the power to dismiss parliament, among others.
FPT Artist said: 'It doesn't seem encouraging at all to me. Things were going OK for Corbyn in February 2016, if you look at the YouGov's during the last leadership contest, the released figures from Election Data so far don't show much of a drop at all. Corbyn would still win against a moderate by roughly 55/45, unbelievable. '
A Yougov poll of Labour members at the end of August 2016 showed 52% wanting to see him lead Labour into the next election. 41% did not. Today's poll has only 44% wanting him as leader at the election compared with 50% who do not. That represents a 9% swing against Corbyn in 6 months when Don't Knows are excluded.Pretty close to a tipping point I would think.
Wouldn't that still be 53/47 and even then it may be overstated by people who don't want him to go immediately. The +17 approval in today's poll means there hasn't been a sea change against Corbyn just days/weeks after a terrible election result and supporting the Tories on Brexit.
Not all Brexiteers voted Tory - yours truly voted Labour in 2015
I presume the same knobbers who think Germaine Greer is a disgrace to the causes of feminism and equality.
Probably not imo.
Anyhoo, the Beeboids have misreported certain details - trolling for outrage-clicks as per, perhaps? The top on the cover isn't seethrough:
I'd say Watson's problem is that she is positioning herself as an English version of Charlotte Church, burbling on about a kind of hectoring feminism that most people rejected some time ago.
Comments
Your puns may be in contravention of the Geneva Convention.
Edited extra bit: vast yawning chasm between Baroin's back and lay prices on Betfair (36/85).
America, good luck for the next
threefour years. You're going to need it.@TSE, there's No Limit to your dodgy '90s music references.
Picking between Trump and Pence is like deciding whether you want to eat vomit or faeces.
Sorry to hear you are ill, get well soon.
https://twitter.com/Dbussereau/status/838396691585826816
https://twitter.com/Dbussereau/status/838398474412507136
@williamglenn Why do you say that?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/baguette-postbox-trend-taking-france-storm/
Most politicians lie, but its the way they tell'em...either leaves wiggle room or are very difficult to establish with 100% certainty it is a lie...but Trump just constantly makes absolute claims which are easy to check.
No president has ever left office due to impeachment (although Nixon would surely have done so if he hadn't resigned - technically that happened before being impeached, however).
According to Carl Bernstein many Republicans on the hill are very concerned about Trump's mental state.
I feel some sympathy for the envelope bunglers, but why the hell weren't they paying attention? Mind you, from what I've heard it sounds like the chap reading it saw something seemed wrong and handed it to the lady to read out, which is also dodgy.
Still not as stupid as the F1 qualifying at the start of last season.
They have that sinking Fillon
They should sing for their Juppe.
I agree that's she a much more unifying figure though.
Surely, if Trump doesn't survive the next four years, it will be Pence who gets to be POTUS. If it's not him then Paul Ryan (or whoever else is speaker of the house). The only way I see it being Ivanka is if she runs in the primaries and wins.
"Juppe, Juppe and away in my Beautiful Fillon"
As an example, I bet next year the envelopes and the cards inside will have much clearer descriptions of what the f they're for. But it's easier to blame the individuals ...
"I see a flamethrower, the flamethrower guy wins in a stick fight…
"The idea of the Master Wizard Hypothesis says there are some people in the world, living people, masters of persuasion, they’ve got a linguistic gift for influencing people. And they are using actual techniques.
"What I [see] in Trump is someone who was highly trained. A lot of the things that the media were reporting as sort of random insults and bluster and just Trump being Trump, looked to me like a lot of deep technique that I recognized from the fields of hypnosis and persuasion."
I believe that Adams was, in the last sentence, referring to Cialdini's seminal work on 'compliance professionals', his book the Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion . It has sat on my bookshelf for a while, but recent events have persuaded me to read it. I am beginning to think that Adams was onto something. Trump uses a lot of flamethrowers.
PS Important addition to the Adams quote:
"So his complete ignoring of facts are actually part of the persuasion because he doesn’t give you targets. He doesn’t give you details of his policies, usually. So he’s reducing the number of targets while making you feel good and focusing on the things he wants. So it’s not about facts, it’s about focus and attention."
Ivanka is an idea straight out of Don Brind fantasy land.
French stuff - if Juppe gets the gig, would we expect both Macron and Le Pen's odds to lengthen?
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
https://twitter.com/45jonnyboy/status/838352840393306113
Chimes with my experience....
That's obviously not faked. Look at the angle Obama's hanging at; it's impossible to fake that even with the best green-screens in Holywood ...
Artist said:
'It doesn't seem encouraging at all to me. Things were going OK for Corbyn in February 2016, if you look at the YouGov's during the last leadership contest, the released figures from Election Data so far don't show much of a drop at all. Corbyn would still win against a moderate by roughly 55/45, unbelievable. '
A Yougov poll of Labour members at the end of August 2016 showed 52% wanting to see him lead Labour into the next election. 41% did not. Today's poll has only 44% wanting him as leader at the election compared with 50% who do not. That represents a 9% swing against Corbyn in 6 months when Don't Knows are excluded.Pretty close to a tipping point I would think.
It would suggest that LR aren't taking the big decisions concerning who represents LR.
Whether Fillon stays in or withdraws, the question is what will happen to his support. Will it stay with the LR candidate, whether it's him or someone else, or might it leak in someone else's direction? If there's a classic "men in dark suits" stabbing, populism may win out.
Le Parisien quote someone at today's pro-Fillon demo:
"Si on retire Fillon, les gens voteront pour un petit candidat au premier tour, Dupont Aignan et Le Pen au deuxième tour", estime cette femme de 68 ans, pour qui "l'autorité judiciaire confisque la démocratie en empêchant Fillon de parler de son programme."
"If they pull Fillon out of the race, people will vote for a small candidate in the first round, Dupont-Aignan, and for Le Pen in the second Round", said this woman, 68, for whom "the judges are undermining democracy by preventing Fillon from speaking about his programme" (emphasis added)
I doubt that Dupont-Aignan will even need 10% in the polls to get into the TF1 TV debate on 20 March. 7-8% should be enough.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-39173159
Also, and in regard to Russia story it certainly isn't a sustainable strategy long-term. That story just keeps coming back, and no amount of diverting has really changed that. It certainly didn't help save Michael Flynn.
If Fillon does depart for Juppe, M. D-A will not doubt gain somewhat; but how much? 2% 3%?
I also suspect that M. D-A may split the French Eurosceptic vote. If Mme Le Pen loses 5 points to D-A, you could easily end up with a Macron-Juppe last two.
He's also personally popular and competes with Macron for the centre ground.
But right now (and I reserve the right to change my mind), I don't see how she doesn't lose by 20 points plus.
I'm green on her, but only a little. Juppe (relatively) a lot, and Macron quite a lot.
"Your practices are not different from the Nazi practices of the past," Mr Erdogan said.
Voters will be asked whether they back a new constitution, which would transform the country from a parliamentary republic to a presidential one.
That would give Mr Erdogan, as president, new powers over the budget, appointment of ministers and judges, and the power to dismiss parliament, among others.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39173296
Dictator....
But in some cases this means more work for human employees. Quartz points out that McDonalds doesn't plan to reduce its workforce after installing kiosks, and Panera Bread "has said that at some locations where it has ordering kiosks, it has actually increased human hours to help the kitchen keep up with the higher number of orders that come in through the more efficient ordering system."
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/17/03/05/0344244/more-fast-food-restaurants-are-now-automating
Anyhoo, the Beeboids have misreported certain details - trolling for outrage-clicks as per, perhaps? The top on the cover isn't seethrough:
I'd say Watson's problem is that she is positioning herself as an English version of Charlotte Church, burbling on about a kind of hectoring feminism that most people rejected some time ago.