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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » N Ireland’s election: the road to nowhere?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » N Ireland’s election: the road to nowhere?
Normalcy does not suit Northern Irish politics. A political structure designed to overcome the legacy of the seventeenth century (with a good deal of success, it has to be said), is in severe danger of being incapable of handling the practicalities of the twenty-first.
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Highly highly likely the DUP take at least 1.
The greens DO NOT want a DUP candidate eliminated next.
The unionist vote in this election didn't go anywhere as near tribal as normal which, added on to increase republican turnout has seen Unionists ship more seats than expected. The Unionists have long had a rebellious streak. If they don't like whats going on on their own side, they stick the boot in.
Scotslass hasn't a notion. Differential turnout and the desire on the part of many Unionists to kick the DUP up the arse this time has not changed the fundamentals in the space of 12 months from the last election.
Have no doubt, gun to the head choice, and we know all about putting guns to the head over here, there isn't a hope in hell of some kind of breakaway from the UK anytime soon.
There's a big difference this time: the candidates will have debated each other on TV before the first round. That hasn't happened before. If one of the two who make the run-off then refuses a one-on-one debate, they will look very chicken. "Met me once? Couldn't handle it?" is a strong message. This is the reason that the between-rounds debate will happen.
In any case, there's the big FN march in Paris on 1 May.
Meanwhile it is by no means a certainty that the left won't get someone into the second round. If they could show some kind of unity, now when the right looks so divided, they would look great.
Thus this pure tribal, business as usual for voters idea didnt happen on the unionist side
But Y0kel's comments are correct.
David Herdson writes an accurate piece, but in the end advocates a pretty standard English view of NI politics; how, for example, should pressure "be brought to bear on the DUP and Sinn Fein to share power, either with each other or with smaller parties"?
Green: 6344 (+894 (45%) from 514 Alliance and 1476 SDLP transfers) = 832 needed.
DUP1: 4726 (+11) = 2450 needed
DUP2: 4695 (+19) = 2481 needed
UUP: 4648 (+310) = 2528 needed
The elimination of the UUP candidate means 4648 votes to redistribute (note, there were 3863 UUP 1st prefs and 703 TUV, also 200 Conservatives so not too many non-Unionists here).
In S Down the UUP candidate's preferences broke:
60% DUP
20% Alliance
13% SDLP
7% - null
The combinations are 2 * DUP or 1 Green, 1 DUP.
Two get 2 DUPs, the second DUP must overcome the Green.
Hence 6394 - 4695 = 1649.
For this to happen, then, and assuming the DUP votes split evenly (seems reasonable, as they are neck and neck), and 10% of votes are not redistributed, hence 4183 votes to redistribute:
4183g + 1649 < 0.5 * 4183(1-g)
hence
4183g +1649 = 2091.5 - 2091.5g
hence
6274.5g = 442.5
hence
g > 7%
I.e. Greens pick up less than 300 of the ~4200 votes to be redistributed from the UUP.
On an STV basis they should beat 7% of nth preferences from UUP voters, and hence are elected with one of the DUP. Considering that they picked up almost half of the SDLP & Alliance voters (albeit that there was no nationalist choice), 7% does not seem a difficult barrier to overcome.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39161954
Could well push UUP ahead of DUP.
Paul Reilly has his 4th and 5th seat mixed up but this looks very plausible to me.
Alot of people on twitter getting the maths of South Belfast wrong, mind... most of those predicting UUP/Green which is more or less impossible.
The BBC don't have 'Sinn Fein have got away with murder' which came up on their coverage earlier.
3863 - 1st pref
66- Conservative (200 votes) 2nd pref
295 - TUV (a similar number going to DUP)
97 - confused Alliance/SDLP voters (4000 total) who didn't transfer to second Alliance/SDLP candidate
310 - surplus of 500 Alliance & 1500 SDLP voters after electing their candidates
Hence that gives:
407 Alliance/SDLP voters who presumably would NOT transfer to DUP after elimination of UUP
4294 TUV/Conservative/UUP voters who would break in large part to the DUP
Given the Greens only need around 300 votes to get elected, the presence of 400 Alliance/SDLP voters in the UUP total means they have done it for sure, as the remaining 'hard' Unionist contingent will give at least some votes to the Greens.
Stage 9 = DUP bod getting elected I assume.
Update your calculations.
Stage 6:
Alliance 514 surplus
SDLP 1476 votes
Stage 7 here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-constituencies/N06000003
Green +894
UUP +310
DUP1 +19
DUP2 +11
That's from the SDLP.
If the Alliance votes go:
Green +200
UUP +200
DUP1 + 20
DUP2 +20
Then the votes are something like:
Green: 6550
UUP: 4850
DUP1: 4750
DUP2: 4725
In that case DUP2 is eliminated, DUP1 goes to something like 9300, and there are ~2100 votes to redistribute.
And then there is a similar equation the Greens need something like 6% of the DUP's transfers to keep the UUP out.
So still in fact likely Green & DUP, just that DUP & DUP is an impossibility.
Thus it's a nailed-on Green + DUP. UUP cannot win.
Stage 10 will be Stalford's excess transferred.
Which is essentially impossible.
7176 less 612.48 non transferable votes.
This election is a virtual deadheat between unionism and nationalism both in first preferences where the DUP was about 1000 ahead of SF and in seats in the Assembly where the designated unionists will be at most 2 up on the Nationalists.
This represents a major shift in the psychology of the North and the underlying reason is not the arrogance and incompetence of the DUP but the impact of BREXIT.
The school mam of a Prime Minister is presiding over the end of the United Kingdom and for many of the contributers to this site it is a great deal later than you think. And no number of patronising May lectures to the troublesome Celts will put these particular genies back in the bottle.
Well it is in the sense that the complete plonker Brokenshire was actually caught out canvassing for the Tory candidates. And he wants to be an honest broker? Truly ridiculous individual.
I take from your comments (and from the Prime Minister's truly absurd speech today) that Central Office is beginning to panic
7176 less 612.48 non transferable votes."
No, it's 6971.
There were 43,052 votes.
7176 was the quota. 3 candidates reached it.
612.48 votes were non-transferrable
hence 43052 - 7176*3 - 612.48 = 20911.52
20911.52 / (2 remaining seats + 1) = 6971
The other way of calculating it is to sum the current vote totals for the four remaining candidates, which gives the same 20912.52 and also therefore 6971.
If it was 6563, the Greens would have been declared the winner already.
In practice, the number of NTs will obviously rise from the DUP's large surplus from eliminating their 2nd candidate, and therefore the effective quota will be lower than 6971.
Noone tweets the stage 9 picture though
As I understand it, stage 9 is complete when DUP1 got over the line.
DUP1 had 4728.5 votes and has received most of the 4703.26 votes from DUP1.
The quota is still 7176. Now DUP1 has more than 2000 surplus votes. The votes eligible for redistribution are the votes received in the last round only.
Now the last bundle received by DUP1 is ~4600 votes, but the surplus is let's say 2200. We now need to count the full 4600 votes and find out how many are transferrable to UUP and Green. If, say 4400 are transferrable, then that means each party receive exactly half (2200 surplus / 4400 transferrable) of the votes that were actually dedicated to them in the bundle just transferred.
Will be interesting to see the final tally to see how many DUP transfers the UUP was short..
Problem for SF-SDLP-All is that the FM must come from the largest party.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvrcEjlSDvA
According to the Sydney Morning Herald, that's $37,400 of recruitment campaign right there.
I particularly enjoyed this scene-by-scene analysis.
https://youtu.be/wWBQP-bxfX0
The problem for Ms Sturgeon is that it’s very hard to argue we need a referendum because we’re being dragged out the EU, then offer anything short of an immediate return. Voters will wonder why Brexit makes a referendum imperative, yet reversing Brexit isn’t a priority. It would lay Ms Sturgeon open to the charge that she is using Brexit simply to engineer a referendum she wanted all along. Her opponents certainly wouldn’t stay silent about that.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/15133487.Tom_Gordon__Sometimes_it___s_the_silence_that_is_the_most_telling/
It's amazing how a 9% deficit can concentrate the mind.....
The real worry is Brexit, which has the capacity to knock everything over if it isn't handled with extreme care. Nothing I have seen suggests that it is going to be handled with even moderate care.
Are the 27 votes for Roger Lomas, the Conservative candidate in West Tyrone, the lowest for a government candidate in a national election?
Clearly this devastating result should ensure Prime Minister May offers her resignation to the Queen tout suite, if that's ok with TSE ....
Edit .... not implying from my last sentence that TSE is an old queen .... on the other hand ....
Bravo!
I argued that we should remain in Europe. Now it’s time to deal with the facts as they stand. And the fact is, with Britain set to pull the Article 50 trigger, we need a hefty dose of “Brealism” to take advantage of the opportunities ahead.
As a Kiwi with British roots I have no personal axe to grind, but the experience of New Zealand can shed light on the choices facing this country. And as the chief executive of Aviva, the UK’s largest insurer, with a substantial international business, I can see Brexit presenting global trading opportunities for the UK.
The current debate is disfigured by absolutist positions.
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/i-supported-remain-but-now-we-all-need-a-hefty-dose-of-brealism-a3480111.html
The performance of the DUP under Arlene Fraser both prior to the election and during the campaign has been abysmal but the tribal nature of NI politics mean she has not been treated nearly as harshly as she or her party deserves. It is particularly disappointing to see the lack of progress on the part of the UUP.
How do we get from here to "normal" politics? I am not sure but I am not sure the rest of the UK should be bending over to make the Assembly work. It is time that the local politicians were held more to account.
Downing Street is “deeply worried” about the outcome of a police investigation into claims of expenses fraud during the 2015 general election.
Senior figures fear that the results of up to half a dozen constituency votes could be declared void — causing hurried by-elections — if prosecutors decide to make an example of the party. Criminal charges against key individuals are also possible.
At one stage 24 investigations were taking place into seats where the Tories were suspected of spending more on their campaign than the legal limit. It is believed that this has been reduced to fewer than a dozen investigations in which the police believe the evidence warrants further examination.
Yesterday a police source said that files were expected to be sent to the Crown Prosecution Service within weeks.
Key figures, including Nick Timothy, Theresa May’s chief of staff, have been dragged into the controversy even though they have not been accused of wrongdoing. Mr Timothy worked on the campaign in South Thanet, where the party stood against Nigel Farage
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-fraud-inquiry-rocks-no-10-w8r5cdmn2
PB sources have also reported concern within the Tory HQ about other seats [apart from Thanet South]
Quite where this would go electorally is hard to say but it looks set to be one of the big domestic political stories of 2017.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/12/08/guido-says-the-tories-are-bracing-themselves-for-charges-over-thanet-south/
Why is everyone so worried about this £50 billion figure? Nobody ever pays fines in Europe. Just look at the French and their highly illegal ban on our beef, for which they have never paid a penny (and the cost of that comes to around £30 billion for us, incidentally).
The irony of that one is especially damning given France had over twice as many cases of BSE as Britain did - and still has it!
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/busted-29-tories-how-broke-7467603
I sent you this yesterday
"Malc If you're around I'm curious what your attitude is now towards independence. You voted Brexit but Nicola's whole strategy is based around rejoining Europe possibly going as far as using the Euro"
Is it a case of the lesser of two evils?
Should Foster have resigned over the heating scandal?
I believe we will have a referendum and hopefully get the correct result this time. England has been getting more and more xenophobic as shown on here and I believe we would be far better out of it now looking after our own affairs and part of the EU.
Moreover both figures are probably gross underestimates - in Britain there are guesses that maybe 2 million cattle had it, in France maybe 4 million. But because farmers and abbatoirs spent a long time trying to hide the full extent of it it's difficult to know for sure how far it went.