Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
I'll have a go at projection using some basic commons sense (SF & DUP won't transfer to each other in general). Two minutes.
The Beeb has a running count too, its the lack of projections that is weird. Especially because earlier round figures are presumably already out.
DUP 29, SF 28, UUP and SDLP 10 each, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV, Ind U, PBP 1 each.
Its a crappy day for political unionism but essentially cyclical. SF has got its vote out well but unionists haven't as well in comparison, nor did they look to vote down the card. Some of it is around the Renewables scheme, some of it is just nationalism getting its vote out better but its doubtful that this election has set a major trend.
Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
I'm watching. As I've said already, I think Fillon will withdraw - or fight on, in some mad dooomed, Corbynista, Japanese-in-the-Solomons way. It's just that it's very hard to see who benefits.
Clearly, Juppe will get a boost. But on examination he is 71, and has a criminal record, and has zero charisma and no chance of reviving France.
I think (and I am almost certainly wrong) that this will come down to Macron v Le Pen.
If Le Pen had a more credible, sensible economic policy, she could actually win.
It's hard to see how any candidate of the centre-right can emerge unscathed from this, even if they do manage to cobble together some deal in which Fillon is given an offer he can't refuse to stand down, Quite possibly they'll end up with a mess in which Fillon hangs on but a lot of support goes to Juppé.
Which means, I think, that you are right, and Macron will be the big gainer from the mess - and therefore, probably the next president.
If Fillon withdraws, then all possiblities are open.
Hypothetical poll without Fillon ealrier today showed Juppe winning the first round, 2 points ahead of Macron, with Le pen being knocked out.
Juppe may be 71 and he may have a criminal record, but I put a poll up last night which showed he was the second most popular politician in France, just 3 points below Macron. Despite his age and despite his dodgy past, it seems the French like him more than most.
Juppe v Macron would, I think be close. One reservation levelled at Macron is his young age and inexperience. I think the French would probably come down on the side of the older, more experienced man, being seen as a safer pair of hands.
Juppe v Le Pen would , on paper, be an easy win for Juppe. However, Le Pen is a very smart political performer and would do well in any TV debates against any opponent. The anti Le Pen vote would probably swing it but In think it would be a lot closer than people might imagine.
Macron v Le Pen, pretty much the same analysis as Juppe v Le Pen
If Fillon refuses to budge, then it will almost certainly be Macron v Le Pen
Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
I'll have a go at projection using some basic commons sense (SF & DUP won't transfer to each other in general). Two minutes.
The Beeb has a running count too, its the lack of projections that is weird. Especially because earlier round figures are presumably already out.
DUP 29, SF 28, UUP and SDLP 10 each, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV, Ind U, PBP 1 each.
Its a crappy day for political unionism but essentially cyclical. SF has got its vote out well but unionists haven't as well in comparison, nor did they look to vote down the card. Some of it is around the Renewables scheme, some of it is just nationalism getting its vote out better but its doubtful that this election has set a major trend.
UUP lost narrowly four seats I expected them to hold narrowly.
DUP 19 UUP 6 SF 23 SDLP 7 All 7 TUV 0 Ind 1 Green 0 PBP 1
Projection
30 DUP 10 UUP 27 SF 11 SDLP 8 All 1 TUV 1 Ind 1 Green 1 PBP
South Belfast final seat projected DUP, could be Green East Londonderry SDLP seat could be Sinn Fein Lagan Valley final seat could be SDLP not DUP as I have projected at the moment.
Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
I'll have a go at projection using some basic commons sense (SF & DUP won't transfer to each other in general). Two minutes.
The Beeb has a running count too, its the lack of projections that is weird. Especially because earlier round figures are presumably already out.
DUP 29, SF 28, UUP and SDLP 10 each, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV, Ind U, PBP 1 each.
Its a crappy day for political unionism but essentially cyclical. SF has got its vote out well but unionists haven't as well in comparison, nor did they look to vote down the card. Some of it is around the Renewables scheme, some of it is just nationalism getting its vote out better but its doubtful that this election has set a major trend.
Nationalism has barely got more than 40% of the vote at various types of election in NI, since the high-water 45% of Euro 1999.
Independent Scotland would likely be in NATO, and we would undoubtedly cooperate on defence issues.
Stationing RAF bases on the north coast? Allowing undersea cables to come onshore? Routine military access thru airspace? Scotland's 250 miles long, and that's an extra 500 miles/45mins on an North Atlantic patrol. North Sea patrols to intercept Russian aircraft would still be OK - we could station Typhoons near Berwick - but the trick for Atlantic patrols is long loiter time, and the extra distance/time would bite.
Berwick? The Air Force of England and Wales would probably reactivate Leeming as a fighter station or just do northern QRA from Coningsby. MARPAT would undoubtedly be based in Waddington.
Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
I'll have a go at projection using some basic commons sense (SF & DUP won't transfer to each other in general). Two minutes.
The Beeb has a running count too, its the lack of projections that is weird. Especially because earlier round figures are presumably already out.
DUP 29, SF 28, UUP and SDLP 10 each, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV, Ind U, PBP 1 each.
Its a crappy day for political unionism but essentially cyclical. SF has got its vote out well but unionists haven't as well in comparison, nor did they look to vote down the card. Some of it is around the Renewables scheme, some of it is just nationalism getting its vote out better but its doubtful that this election has set a major trend.
UUP lost narrowly four seats I expected them to hold narrowly.
The hidden side of the election was some signs of UUP transfers to the SDLP and a fall in transfers to the DUP. It may see the SDLP take out what was a likely SF 2nd seat in East Londonderry.
The warp and weft of the United Kingdom is unravelling at a gathering pace. Ten years hence from 2015 GE we could have a united Ireland, an independent Scotland inside the EU leaving just Wales and the Isle of Wight as the English dominions. It's amazing what pride has wrought.
As a Briton first and Englishman second, I certainly do not regard any of the constituent parts of this nation as dominions of England.
Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
But the whole tone of the discussion starts with the premise that the UK will have to had over EUR50bn to Brussels in 2019.
And that's not going to happen.
Quite right, it's not going to happen, and no even vaguely sane person could possibly take it seriously, given the fact that as Richard T points out, our total bill as a full member is only £9bn or so a year.
That being the case, one has to ask what on earth our EU friends are doing bandying around such a bonkers figure. Assuming that they are not so insane as to take it seriously themselves, there are only two possibilities. Either they are deliberately wanting to sabotage the possibility of a sensible deal, or they are playing a dangerous game of souk carpet-bargaining, where they expect to settle for a tenth of their opening offer.
Actually, I think they're serious. Maybe not the full €60 billion, but a substantial chunk of it. As we realistically can't walk away without agreement, the real risk is hitting an impasse and letting the two years drift pass without proper negotiations while the situation deteriorates. I think we need to bite the bullet on this and concoct some kind of project plan for the payments .. It isn't a huge amount of money in the scheme of things and certainly not worth trashing our economy for. This is how things are going to be post Brexit and not just with the EU. Sorry.
Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
I'm watching. As I've said already, I think Fillon will withdraw - or fight on, in some mad dooomed, Corbynista, Japanese-in-the-Solomons way. It's just that it's very hard to see who benefits.
Clearly, Juppe will get a boost. But on examination he is 71, and has a criminal record, and has zero charisma and no chance of reviving France.
I think (and I am almost certainly wrong) that this will come down to Macron v Le Pen.
If Le Pen had a more credible, sensible economic policy, she could actually win.
It's hard to see how any candidate of the centre-right can emerge unscathed from this, even if they do manage to cobble together some deal in which Fillon is given an offer he can't refuse to stand down, Quite possibly they'll end up with a mess in which Fillon hangs on but a lot of support goes to Juppé.
Which means, I think, that you are right, and Macron will be the big gainer from the mess - and therefore, probably the next president.
If Fillon withdraws, then all possiblities are open.
Hypothetical poll without Fillon ealrier today showed Juppe winning the first round, 2 points ahead of Macron, with Le pen being knocked out.
Juppe may be 71 and he may have a criminal record, but I put a poll up last night which showed he was the second most popular politician in France, just 3 points below Macron. Despite his age and despite his dodgy past, it seems the French like him more than most.
Juppe v Macron would, I think be close. One reservation levelled at Macron is his young age and inexperience. I think the French would probably come down on the side of the older, more experienced man, being seen as a safer pair of hands.
Juppe v Le Pen would , on paper, be an easy win for Juppe. However, Le Pen is a very smart political performer and would do well in any TV debates against any opponent. The anti Le Pen vote would probably swing it but In think it would be a lot closer than people might imagine.
Macron v Le Pen, pretty much the same analysis as Juppe v Le Pen
If Fillon refuses to budge, then it will almost certainly be Macron v Le Pen
I don't think they'll be a one-on-one with Le Pen between the rounds. Why? Because Juppe or Macron will be 20-30 points clear, and why risk it? It's only ever the politician that lags in the polls that wants a debate. And I think Macron or Juppe will stand up and say "Yes! I want a debate", while secretly ensuring it doesn't happen.
But the whole tone of the discussion starts with the premise that the UK will have to had over EUR50bn to Brussels in 2019.
And that's not going to happen.
Quite right, it's not going to happen, and no even vaguely sane person could possibly take it seriously, given the fact that as Richard T points out, our total bill as a full member is only £9bn or so a year.
That being the case, one has to ask what on earth our EU friends are doing bandying around such a bonkers figure. Assuming that they are not so insane as to take it seriously themselves, there are only two possibilities. Either they are deliberately wanting to sabotage the possibility of a sensible deal, or they are playing a dangerous game of souk carpet-bargaining, where they expect to settle for a tenth of their opening offer.
Actually, I think they're serious. Maybe not the full €60 billion, but a substantial chunk of it. As we realistically can't walk away without agreement, the real risk is hitting an impasse and letting the two years drift pass without proper negotiations while the situation deteriorates. I think we need to bite the bullet on this and concoct some kind of project plan for the payments .. It isn't a huge amount of money in the scheme of things and certainly not worth trashing our economy for. This is how things are going to be post Brexit and not just with the EU. Sorry.
How did they even come up with the number? Say we leave in mid 2019, that only leaves 1.5 years of our contributions to the currently approved budget they need to recoup. As for pensions contributions.. I know EU pensions are good, but they can't be that good!
Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
I'll have a go at projection using some basic commons sense (SF & DUP won't transfer to each other in general). Two minutes.
The Beeb has a running count too, its the lack of projections that is weird. Especially because earlier round figures are presumably already out.
DUP 29, SF 28, UUP and SDLP 10 each, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV, Ind U, PBP 1 each.
Its a crappy day for political unionism but essentially cyclical. SF has got its vote out well but unionists haven't as well in comparison, nor did they look to vote down the card. Some of it is around the Renewables scheme, some of it is just nationalism getting its vote out better but its doubtful that this election has set a major trend.
UUP lost narrowly four seats I expected them to hold narrowly.
The hidden side of the election was some signs of UUP transfers to the SDLP and a fall in transfers to the DUP. It may see the SDLP take out what was a likely SF 2nd seat in East Londonderry.
In fact UUP transfers to the SDLP may just deprived the DUP of a seat.
I don't think they'll be a one-on-one with Le Pen between the rounds. Why? Because Juppe or Macron will be 20-30 points clear, and why risk it? It's only ever the politician that lags in the polls that wants a debate. And I think Macron or Juppe will stand up and say "Yes! I want a debate", while secretly ensuring it doesn't happen.
The thing is that the one-on-one debate has been a fixture of French presidential elections going back decades and has seen some of the great rhetorical duels which defined careers.
Chirac could get away with refusing to debate Jean-Marie Le Pen because of the unprecedented nature of that election but I don't think any candidate could get away with ducking a debate with Marine.
A problem which is likely to increase will be the friction between a leftist London and a conservative England.
Of course London is financially dependent upon its most conservative dominated sector - the financial services - which might make things worse.
London is a very heterogeneous city, as one would expect from somewhere of its size, diversity and large wealth inequalities. And there's no reason to suppose that practically everywhere else within a hundred miles of it will remain Tory territory in perpetuity, just because the current Opposition is shit.
There's also no particular reason to imagine that the boundary of Greater London will morph into some kind of political and philospohical watershed, like that between (in Parliamentary terms) largely Conservative England and almost entirely Nationalist Scotland. Besides anything else, when push comes to shove London is not a principality or even a province. It's just a city. A relatively large and important city, but a city nonetheless. And one which has a substantial minority of Conservative MPs and had, until very recently, a Conservative mayor.
Outside of the fantasies of a few particularly crestfallen and delusional hardcore Europhiles, London has neither the need nor the desire to think of itself as a potentially sovereign entity any more than, say, Nuneaton or Wakefield. And it certainly hasn't the right.
I doubt it. Much of it will come back here to committed programmes and projects anyway. For Instance we have forward commitments under CAP - 5 and 10 year management agreements under the Rural Development Programme. These are legal commitments to farmers and land managers. We either pay through CAP or the Treasury funds it.
The dimmer leavers would be wrong to see this as just another opportunity to thumb our nose and moon at the nasty Eurocrats,
The dimmer Europhiles seem to forget we were running a £9 billion a year net contribution to the EU. Even if we commit to covering every penny that came back from the EU from the Treasury we are still making a saving of £9 billion a year.
Oh, the fabled £350m a week has shrunk by half I see.
Given I was one of those pointing out that the £350 million a week was utterly false and indefensible your comment - like so much of what you write - is pointless and ill informed.
Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
I'll have a go at projection using some basic commons sense (SF & DUP won't transfer to each other in general). Two minutes.
The Beeb has a running count too, its the lack of projections that is weird. Especially because earlier round figures are presumably already out.
DUP 29, SF 28, UUP and SDLP 10 each, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV, Ind U, PBP 1 each.
Its a crappy day for political unionism but essentially cyclical. SF has got its vote out well but unionists haven't as well in comparison, nor did they look to vote down the card. Some of it is around the Renewables scheme, some of it is just nationalism getting its vote out better but its doubtful that this election has set a major trend.
UUP lost narrowly four seats I expected them to hold narrowly.
The hidden side of the election was some signs of UUP transfers to the SDLP and a fall in transfers to the DUP. It may see the SDLP take out what was a likely SF 2nd seat in East Londonderry.
In fact UUP transfers to the SDLP may just deprived the DUP of a seat.
There is a general consensus on this site that Mme Le Pen is riding high. But she's actually come back a lot from her highs of 2015. Back then, she regularly polled 31-32% in hypothetical first rounds. Now it's something in the mid-20s. Given the FN's habit of underperforming its opinion poll ratings, it's not inconceivable (albeit it is unlikely) that she could end up at 21-22% of the vote, in which case I think it quite likely that the run-off will be between Macron and Juppe.
I think there is an interesting lesson from the Netherlands. There support for Geert Wilder's PVV was as high as 35-36 seats just a month ago, and reached 42 early last year. Yet it now looks entirely likely that he'll have made very little progress, perhaps advancing from 15 to 22-23 seats.
What a lot of EU countries lack is sensible Eurosceptic, nationalist parties. The FN reeks of antisemitism: people will say they support it because they like their Euroscepticism and nationalism. But when it comes to the ballot box, quite a few people who are sympathetic, remember than Le Pen Snr is a holocaust denier who as recently as 2011 said "La france a trop de juifs". The VVD has a similar problem. Lots of people in the Netherlands want a politician who will curtail Muslim immigration and protect Dutch values. But they want someone who does that without calling Moroccans 'scum'.
I could, of course, be completely wrong. But my guess is that the PVV will be a very damp squib, and that MLP will similarly be a long way off the pace in 2017.
Next time around, of course, could be a very different story.
I don't think they'll be a one-on-one with Le Pen between the rounds. Why? Because Juppe or Macron will be 20-30 points clear, and why risk it? It's only ever the politician that lags in the polls that wants a debate. And I think Macron or Juppe will stand up and say "Yes! I want a debate", while secretly ensuring it doesn't happen.
The thing is that the one-on-one debate has been a fixture of French presidential elections going back decades and has seen some of the great rhetorical duels which defined careers.
Chirac could get away with refusing to debate Jean-Marie Le Pen because of the unprecedented nature of that election but I don't think any candidate could get away with ducking a debate with Marine.
She is a much smarter cookie than her father and if they did try and dodge a tv debate against her, she would use that to maximum advantage.
I don't think they'll be a one-on-one with Le Pen between the rounds. Why? Because Juppe or Macron will be 20-30 points clear, and why risk it? It's only ever the politician that lags in the polls that wants a debate. And I think Macron or Juppe will stand up and say "Yes! I want a debate", while secretly ensuring it doesn't happen.
The thing is that the one-on-one debate has been a fixture of French presidential elections going back decades and has seen some of the great rhetorical duels which defined careers.
Chirac could get away with refusing to debate Jean-Marie Le Pen because of the unprecedented nature of that election but I don't think any candidate could get away with ducking a debate with Marine.
Not only will Juppe/Macron avoid a one-on-one with Le Pen, they will manage to make it sound like it is all due to her making unreasonable demands.
Can't see any projections for final seat totals in NI on the BBC or anywhere else? Does anyone have one?
I understand it's a different voting system but if this was a General Election then by the point we've got over 80% of seats declared there is a reasonable projection of what the totals will be.
I'll have a go at projection using some basic commons sense (SF & DUP won't transfer to each other in general). Two minutes.
The Beeb has a running count too, its the lack of projections that is weird. Especially because earlier round figures are presumably already out.
DUP 29, SF 28, UUP and SDLP 10 each, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV, Ind U, PBP 1 each.
Its a crappy day for political unionism but essentially cyclical. SF has got its vote out well but unionists haven't as well in comparison, nor did they look to vote down the card. Some of it is around the Renewables scheme, some of it is just nationalism getting its vote out better but its doubtful that this election has set a major trend.
UUP lost narrowly four seats I expected them to hold narrowly.
The hidden side of the election was some signs of UUP transfers to the SDLP and a fall in transfers to the DUP. It may see the SDLP take out what was a likely SF 2nd seat in East Londonderry.
In fact UUP transfers to the SDLP may just deprived the DUP of a seat.
Looks like a fair number of the UUP prefer the moderate centre left over the right right.
Not only will Juppe/Macron avoid a one-on-one with Le Pen, they will manage to make it sound like it is all due to her making unreasonable demands.
This isn't like the UK where there is no tradition of debates and so every detail has to be negotiated. The Presidential debate is as much a part of French culture as it is of American culture, and the format has been the same for a long time.
How did they even come up with the number? Say we leave in mid 2019, that only leaves 1.5 years of our contributions to the currently approved budget they need to recoup. As for pensions contributions.. I know EU pensions are good, but they can't be that good!
Part of it I think covers the period up to 2020, so we're full members anyway. Part of it is for multiyear projects go on past our exit date. The EU argues that as those projects went ahead on the assumption that the budget would be shared by all the signatories we're on the hook for it. It doesn't actually matter because the EU can't enforce any of this after we leave. We don't have an explicit obligation to pay a particular amount, nor is there an arbitration court that will hear the case if we don't pay after we leave. So it's up to us whether we agree to do so. Being semi-optional makes it worse in a way because it exposes the fact we are in a weak negotiating position. We could say a flat No but that wouldn't be to our advantage. We could say No and drag it out and then end up paying in the end anyway. There's no point to that because we would be wasting precious negotiating time and capital. And actually it's not a huge amount of money if you spread it out over years and get something back for it in terms of access to the EU market or whatever...
1. The EU's unfunded pension liabilities that we are probably responsible for a portion of. This is bandied around as being about EUR20bn, but I think that number is calculated by adding up the (undiscounted) total future payments. This will likely be 'solved' by us taking responsibility for MEP and British Eurocrat pensions, and will therefore not involve any actual transfers of money.
2. The money in the EU budget to 2021 that we signed off on when the UK budget approved the five year plan last year. The EU claims that as we approved this, we are responsible for a portion of it. I suspect that the compromise here is that, as we'll want a transitional agreement, that we pay (making up numbers here) EUR 5bn in 2019, 2020 and 2021. This isn't the total amount but it's close.
3. The final EUR20bn that is claimed will be offset against EU assets of EUR140bn. The proportion of ownership is somewhat hazy (should recent joiners be eligible for a major portion?, what about net benificiaries of EU largess?)
Put together this means we'll be responsible for some pensions, pay a transitional membership fee that'll be less than half what we were previously paying, and agree to swap remaining liabilities for assets. The EU will tell their voters we paid EUR60bn, and Mrs May will say we paid nothing.
How did they even come up with the number? Say we leave in mid 2019, that only leaves 1.5 years of our contributions to the currently approved budget they need to recoup. As for pensions contributions.. I know EU pensions are good, but they can't be that good!
Part of it I think covers the period up to 2020, so we're full members anyway. Part of it is for multiyear projects go on past our exit date. The EU argues that as those projects went ahead on the assumption that the budget would be shared by all the signatories we're on the hook for it. It doesn't actually matter because the EU can't enforce any of this after we leave. We don't have an explicit obligation to pay a particular amount, nor is there an arbitration court that will hear the case if we don't pay after we leave. So it's up to us whether we agree to do so. Being semi-optional makes it worse in a way because it exposes the fact we are in a weak negotiating position. We could say a flat No but that wouldn't be to our advantage. We could say No and drag it out and then end up paying in the end anyway. There's no point to that because we would be wasting precious negotiating time and capital. And actually it's not a huge amount of money if you spread it out over years and get something back for it in terms of access to the EU market or whatever...
So we should just roll over and pay the full amount because they told us to? I'm of the view that it gives us a bit of leverage in negotiation. Yes we'll pay something, but I doubt it'll be anywhere near the 60bn euros demanded.
How did they even come up with the number? Say we leave in mid 2019, that only leaves 1.5 years of our contributions to the currently approved budget they need to recoup. As for pensions contributions.. I know EU pensions are good, but they can't be that good!
Part of it I think covers the period up to 2020, so we're full members anyway. Part of it is for multiyear projects go on past our exit date. The EU argues that as those projects went ahead on the assumption that the budget would be shared by all the signatories we're on the hook for it. It doesn't actually matter because the EU can't enforce any of this after we leave. We don't have an explicit obligation to pay a particular amount, nor is there an arbitration court that will hear the case if we don't pay after we leave. So it's up to us whether we agree to do so. Being semi-optional makes it worse in a way because it exposes the fact we are in a weak negotiating position. We could say a flat No but that wouldn't be to our advantage. We could say No and drag it out and then end up paying in the end anyway. There's no point to that because we would be wasting precious negotiating time and capital. And actually it's not a huge amount of money if you spread it out over years and get something back for it in terms of access to the EU market or whatever...
I don't think it's true to say there's no abritration court. As regards the pensions part, there is a clear path to us being sued, and probably losing.
However, there is some odd details missing from the story. Came to the UK 2001, at some point worked as a carer, then no details of under what guise he came here, why he is being deported etc etc etc, other than won't say because of fear of consequences for his family.
I am not going to lift a finger to stop Scotland becoming independent, or for northern ireland to become part of the Irish republic. It is entirely up to them as far as I am concerned. Democracy doesn't stop at Brexit. The english have spoken and have to live with the consequences of their decision.
DUP 28 UUP 10 SF 27 SDLP 12 All 8 TUV 1 Ind 1 Green 1 PBP 1
Only South Belfast to go which will either be Green or DUP.
If you look at South Belfast much will depend on Michael Henderson (UUP) transfers. If the UUP pattern goes as elsewhere you may not see the DUP get as much as expected but equally you'd not be sure of a high transfer to the Greens.
All to play for in a constituency where straight out Unionists should get two (Bradshaw could wear a sash on a good day).
I am not going to lift a finger to stop Scotland becoming independent, or for northern ireland to become part of the Irish republic. It is entirely up to them as far as I am concerned. Democracy doesn't stop at Brexit. The english have spoken and have to live with the consequences of their decision.
Where does democracy stop? I would suggest that even in the event of a Yes vote some parts of Scotland should be given the option of remaining with the rUK - just as the six Ulster counties were in the early 1920s. It is not difficult to imagine the Orkneys & Shetlands preferring such an option - and that might also may well be true of the Border areas covered by Dumfrieshire - Roxburgh and Berwickshire.
I am not going to lift a finger to stop Scotland becoming independent, or for northern ireland to become part of the Irish republic. It is entirely up to them as far as I am concerned. Democracy doesn't stop at Brexit. The english have spoken and have to live with the consequences of their decision.
No it doesn't - and I'd like to help convince them to democratically decide not to become independent or join with the Irish republic. That is in no way hindering their democratic right, I'm just entreating them to not leave. It's up to them, but we're allowed to express our views on it.
And for the last time, the welsh also voted to Brexit.
I am not going to lift a finger to stop Scotland becoming independent, or for northern ireland to become part of the Irish republic. It is entirely up to them as far as I am concerned. Democracy doesn't stop at Brexit. The english have spoken and have to live with the consequences of their decision.
We, the English, have chosen to be self governing, and to make our own laws once again. If the Northern Irish, Welsh and Scots find this too idea disturbing and alarming, and can only conceive of a life of distracted imperial governance from Brussels and Frankfurt, then so be it.
East Londonderry: DUP/UUP/TUV/PUP/Independent Unionist: 56.5% 3 (provisional - should be 2 DUP plus 1 independent unionist) SDLP/SF: 33.7% 2 (provisional should be 1 SF & 1 SDLP)
Note the UUP are about as popular as the PUP in Belfast, so the unionists ended up with a minority of the seats here, whereas the SF/SDLP vote is more evenly distributed (29.4 to 13.1 as opposed to 32.1 to 5.8 UUP and 4.9 for PUP)
Belfast S:
SDLP/SF: 37.1% (2 elected so far) DUP/UUP/TUV: 31.6% All: 13.0% (1 elected so far)
I am not going to lift a finger to stop Scotland becoming independent, or for northern ireland to become part of the Irish republic. It is entirely up to them as far as I am concerned. Democracy doesn't stop at Brexit. The english have spoken and have to live with the consequences of their decision.
We, the English, have chosen to be self governing, and to make our own laws once again. If the Northern Irish, Welsh and Scots find this too idea disturbing and alarming, and can only conceive of a life of distracted imperial governance from Brussels and Frankfurt, then so be it.
Further to The Tines story that 'government lawyers' have concluded that a £50bn Brexit bill is unenforceable - so have a Lords Committee:
On the basis of the legal opinions we have considered we conclude that, as a matter of EU law, Article 50 TEU allows the UK to leave the EU without being liable for outstanding financial obligations under the EU budget and related financial instruments, unless a withdrawal agreement is concluded which resolves this issue.
159. Pension liabilities affect the rights accrued by individuals (including many UK nationals) through service with the EU institutions. Nevertheless, since the pension scheme is run entirely through the EU’s annual budgets, the same legal principles apply in respect of any UK liability as apply in respect of the EU budget generally. The political and economic consequences of the UK’s not responding to claims under the EU budget, noted above, apply also to pensions.
160.We also note that no special arrangement has been made for countries on accession, to reflect the fact that their nationals have little or no pension entitlement: pensions are liabilities of the EU, not individual Member States, and the nationality of pensioners is, as a matter of law, irrelevant.
SF doing very well UUP not actually worse, but losing out badly from the fall from 6 to 5 members SDLP not improving but benefiting from being not SF. DUP toxic to everyone not DUP & TUV
The BBC have it (inevitably) as a 'disaster for Unionism'
SF doing very well UUP not actually worse, but losing out badly from the fall from 6 to 5 members SDLP not improving but benefiting from being not SF. DUP toxic to everyone not DUP & TUV
The BBC have it (inevitably) as a 'disaster for Unionism'
The elimination of the UUP candidate means 4648 votes to redistribute (note, there were 3863 UUP 1st prefs and 703 TUV, also 200 Conservatives so not too many non-Unionists here).
In S Down the UUP candidate's preferences broke:
60% DUP 20% Alliance 13% SDLP 7% - null
The combinations are 2 * DUP or 1 Green, 1 DUP.
Two get 2 DUPs, the second DUP must overcome the Green.
Hence 6394 - 4695 = 1649.
For this to happen, then, and assuming the DUP votes split evenly (seems reasonable, as they are neck and neck), and 10% of votes are not redistributed, hence 4183 votes to redistribute:
Comments
Hypothetical poll without Fillon ealrier today showed Juppe winning the first round, 2 points ahead of Macron, with Le pen being knocked out.
Juppe may be 71 and he may have a criminal record, but I put a poll up last night which showed he was the second most popular politician in France, just 3 points below Macron. Despite his age and despite his dodgy past, it seems the French like him more than most.
Juppe v Macron would, I think be close. One reservation levelled at Macron is his young age and inexperience. I think the French would probably come down on the side of the older, more experienced man, being seen as a safer pair of hands.
Juppe v Le Pen would , on paper, be an easy win for Juppe. However, Le Pen is a very smart political performer and would do well in any TV debates against any opponent. The anti Le Pen vote would probably swing it but In think it would be a lot closer than people might imagine.
Macron v Le Pen, pretty much the same analysis as Juppe v Le Pen
If Fillon refuses to budge, then it will almost certainly be Macron v Le Pen
Arlene Foster needs to eat a bit of humble pie.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/frances-future-depends-on-one-question--and-one-man/2017/03/03/cd155a92-ffa2-11e6-8f41-ea6ed597e4ca_story.html
Where we are now (I think)
DUP 19
UUP 6
SF 23
SDLP 7
All 7
TUV 0
Ind 1
Green 0
PBP 1
Projection
30 DUP
10 UUP
27 SF
11 SDLP
8 All
1 TUV
1 Ind
1 Green
1 PBP
South Belfast final seat projected DUP, could be Green
East Londonderry SDLP seat could be Sinn Fein
Lagan Valley final seat could be SDLP not DUP as I have projected at the moment.
With Iris Robinson and Arlene Foster the DUP seem to get some dreadful women.
.. It isn't a huge amount of money in the scheme of things and certainly not worth trashing our economy for. This is how things are going to be post Brexit and not just with the EU. Sorry.
Chirac could get away with refusing to debate Jean-Marie Le Pen because of the unprecedented nature of that election but I don't think any candidate could get away with ducking a debate with Marine.
There's also no particular reason to imagine that the boundary of Greater London will morph into some kind of political and philospohical watershed, like that between (in Parliamentary terms) largely Conservative England and almost entirely Nationalist Scotland. Besides anything else, when push comes to shove London is not a principality or even a province. It's just a city. A relatively large and important city, but a city nonetheless. And one which has a substantial minority of Conservative MPs and had, until very recently, a Conservative mayor.
Outside of the fantasies of a few particularly crestfallen and delusional hardcore Europhiles, London has neither the need nor the desire to think of itself as a potentially sovereign entity any more than, say, Nuneaton or Wakefield. And it certainly hasn't the right.
I think there is an interesting lesson from the Netherlands. There support for Geert Wilder's PVV was as high as 35-36 seats just a month ago, and reached 42 early last year. Yet it now looks entirely likely that he'll have made very little progress, perhaps advancing from 15 to 22-23 seats.
What a lot of EU countries lack is sensible Eurosceptic, nationalist parties. The FN reeks of antisemitism: people will say they support it because they like their Euroscepticism and nationalism. But when it comes to the ballot box, quite a few people who are sympathetic, remember than Le Pen Snr is a holocaust denier who as recently as 2011 said "La france a trop de juifs". The VVD has a similar problem. Lots of people in the Netherlands want a politician who will curtail Muslim immigration and protect Dutch values. But they want someone who does that without calling Moroccans 'scum'.
I could, of course, be completely wrong. But my guess is that the PVV will be a very damp squib, and that MLP will similarly be a long way off the pace in 2017.
Next time around, of course, could be a very different story.
28 DUP
10 UUP
27 SF
12 SDLP
8 All
1 TUV
1 Ind
1 Green
1 PBP
With South Belfast giving either Green #2 or DUP #29.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/837693603766022145
https://twitter.com/DavidMundellDCT/status/837806917963628548
There are roughly three components to it:
1. The EU's unfunded pension liabilities that we are probably responsible for a portion of. This is bandied around as being about EUR20bn, but I think that number is calculated by adding up the (undiscounted) total future payments. This will likely be 'solved' by us taking responsibility for MEP and British Eurocrat pensions, and will therefore not involve any actual transfers of money.
2. The money in the EU budget to 2021 that we signed off on when the UK budget approved the five year plan last year. The EU claims that as we approved this, we are responsible for a portion of it. I suspect that the compromise here is that, as we'll want a transitional agreement, that we pay (making up numbers here) EUR 5bn in 2019, 2020 and 2021. This isn't the total amount but it's close.
3. The final EUR20bn that is claimed will be offset against EU assets of EUR140bn. The proportion of ownership is somewhat hazy (should recent joiners be eligible for a major portion?, what about net benificiaries of EU largess?)
Put together this means we'll be responsible for some pensions, pay a transitional membership fee that'll be less than half what we were previously paying, and agree to swap remaining liabilities for assets. The EU will tell their voters we paid EUR60bn, and Mrs May will say we paid nothing.
DUP 28
UUP 10
SF 27
SDLP 12
All 8
TUV 1
Ind 1
Green 1
PBP 1
Only South Belfast to go which will either be Green or DUP.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/03/man-who-saved-two-children-from-house-fire-to-be-deported-from-uk
However, there is some odd details missing from the story. Came to the UK 2001, at some point worked as a carer, then no details of under what guise he came here, why he is being deported etc etc etc, other than won't say because of fear of consequences for his family.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OapQJyp9kk0OVHVKRz7RKVXzYE4kp9vhdC5DGG-hddQ/edit?usp=sharing
Dallat not confirmed in Londonderry but he is ~ 70 ahead of Sinn Fein with only DUP excess transfers to slot in - so very very likely.
Democracy doesn't stop at Brexit. The english have spoken and have to live with the consequences of their decision.
https://twitter.com/DelaneyMan/status/837751167539118083
All to play for in a constituency where straight out Unionists should get two (Bradshaw could wear a sash on a good day).
And for the last time, the welsh also voted to Brexit.
SF/SDLP: 51.9% 3 seats
UUP/DUP/TUV: 42.9% - 2 seats
Newry & Armagh
SF/SDLP: 64.7% - 4seats
UUP/DUP: 31.0% - 1 seat
West Tyrone
SF/SDLP: 62.3% 4 seats
UUP/DUP/TUV: 30.5% - 1 seat
South Down:
SF/SDLP: 63.8% 4 seats
DUP/UUP/TUV: 25.5% 1 seat
Upper Bann
UUP/DUP/TUV: 55.4% 3 seats
SDLP/SF: 37.7% 2 seats
Lagan Valley:
All: 13.5% 1 seat
DUP/UUP/TUV: 69.6% 3 seats
SDLP/SF: 12.4% 1 seat
South Antrim:
DUP/UUP/TUV: 57.7% (3 seats)
SF/SDLP: 25.8% (1 seat)
All: 12.5% 1 seat
East Antrim:
DUP/UUP/TUV/UKIP(!): 66.0% (4 seats)
Alliance: 16.0% (1 seat)
SF/SDLP: 14.0% nothing
North Antrim:
DUP/UUP: 57.7% (3 seats)
SF/SDLP: 25.8% (1 seat)
Alliance: 12.5% (1 seat)
East Londonderry:
DUP/UUP/TUV/PUP/Independent Unionist: 56.5% 3 (provisional - should be 2 DUP plus 1 independent unionist)
SDLP/SF: 33.7% 2 (provisional should be 1 SF & 1 SDLP)
At Stage 9:
(Independent Unionist already elected)
quota 6979
DUP1: 8056 (elected 1097 surplus)
DUP2: 7801 (elected 842 surplus)
leaving
SF1 6320
SDLP 5298
SF2 5211
At Stage 10, nobody will reach quota, only plausible ordering:
SF1
SDLP
SF2
Hence SF2 eliminated and SF1 & SDLP elected
Foyle:
SF/SDLP: 68.4% 4
DUP/UUP 17.1% 1
Belfast E:
DUP/UUP/PUP/TUV: 59.6% (3 elected)
Alliance: 31.4% (2 candidates stood and duly elected)
SF/SDLP: 3.5% (!)
Last count was
All2 7269 (elected)
DUP1 6275
UUP 6049
DUP2 4891
DUP3 4600
PUP 3149 (eliminated)
And Stage 9
UUP elected from Alliance transfers
DUP1 elected
Thus Stage 10:
DUP2 elected
Belfast N:
DUP/PUP/UUP: 42.8% (2)
SDLP/SF: 42.5% (3)
Note the UUP are about as popular as the PUP in Belfast, so the unionists ended up with a minority of the seats here, whereas the SF/SDLP vote is more evenly distributed (29.4 to 13.1 as opposed to 32.1 to 5.8 UUP and 4.9 for PUP)
Belfast S:
SDLP/SF: 37.1% (2 elected so far)
DUP/UUP/TUV: 31.6%
All: 13.0% (1 elected so far)
Currently
SDLP: 8652 (elected)
All: 7690 (elected)
Green: 5450 (1726 short)
DUP1 4715
DUP2 4676
UUP 4338
7176 quota
Thus transfers:
SDLP 1476
All: 514
Splitting something like:
DUP: 20
UUP: 300
Green: 1400
Hence something like:
Green: 6850
DUP1 4725
DUP2 4690
UUP: 4638
UUP could over take DUP, but it doesn't matter - if the order is:
Green
DUP1
DUP2
UUP, the UUP are eliminated and the DUP are elected
And if the order is
Green
UUP
DUP1
DUP2
then the elimination of DUP2 gets DUP1 massively ahead of UUP, and again they are elected.
So the final outcome is Green & DUP
Belfast W:
SF/SDLP: 70.4% (4) 4 SF listed and 4 elected
Trotskyists: 14.9% (1)
DUP/UUP: 11.3%
Mid Ulster:
SF/SDLP: 65.7% (4 elected)
DUP/UUP/TUV: 30.9% (1 elected)
North Down:
DUP/UUP: 49.0% (3 elected)
Green: 18.6% (1 elected)
All: 13.7% (1 elected)
SDLP/SF: 3.4%
South Down:
SF/SDLP: 63.8% 4 elected
DUP/UUP/TUV: 25.5% 1 elected
Strangford:
DUP/UUP/TUV: 62.4% 4 elected
All: 15.0% 1 elected
SF/SDLP: 10.8%
Current standings:
SF: 26
DUP: 26
SDLP: 11
UUP: 10
APNI: 8
Green: 1
Trots: 1
Independent Unionist: 1
TUV: 1
Remaining seats: 5
Belfast S - 2 should be 1 Green & 1DUP
E Londonderry - 2 - must be SF + SDLP
Belfast E - 1 impossible for other than DUP
Hence final outcome:
DUP: 28
SF: 27
SDLP: 12
UUP: 10
APNI: 8
Green: 2
Trots: 1
Independent Unionist: 1
TUV: 1
On the basis of the legal opinions we have considered we conclude that, as a matter of EU law, Article 50 TEU allows the UK to leave the EU without being liable for outstanding financial obligations under the EU budget and related financial instruments, unless a withdrawal agreement is concluded which resolves this issue.
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/12507.htm#_idTextAnchor038
159. Pension liabilities affect the rights accrued by individuals (including many UK nationals) through service with the EU institutions. Nevertheless, since the pension scheme is run entirely through the EU’s annual budgets, the same legal principles apply in respect of any UK liability as apply in respect of the EU budget generally. The political and economic consequences of the UK’s not responding to claims under the EU budget, noted above, apply also to pensions.
160.We also note that no special arrangement has been made for countries on accession, to reflect the fact that their nationals have little or no pension entitlement: pensions are liabilities of the EU, not individual Member States, and the nationality of pensioners is, as a matter of law, irrelevant.
2016 -
DUP 29.2% vote 35.2% seats
SF 24%/25.9%
UUP 12.6%/14.8%
SDLP 12%/11.1%
All 7%/7.4%
2017:
DUP: 28.1%(-1.1%)/31.1%
SF: 27.9%(+3.9%)/30%
UUP: 12.9%(+0.3%)/9.3%
SDLP: 11.9%(-0.1%)/11.1%
All: 9.1%/7.4%
The main features:
SF doing very well
UUP not actually worse, but losing out badly from the fall from 6 to 5 members
SDLP not improving but benefiting from being not SF.
DUP toxic to everyone not DUP & TUV
The BBC have it (inevitably) as a 'disaster for Unionism'
Muriel Gray not impressed:
https://twitter.com/ArtyBagger/status/837808569932214272
Green: 6344 (+894 (45%) from 514 Alliance and 1476 SDLP transfers) = 832 needed.
DUP1: 4726 (+11) = 2450 needed
DUP2: 4695 (+19) = 2481 needed
UUP: 4648 (+310) = 2528 needed
The elimination of the UUP candidate means 4648 votes to redistribute (note, there were 3863 UUP 1st prefs and 703 TUV, also 200 Conservatives so not too many non-Unionists here).
In S Down the UUP candidate's preferences broke:
60% DUP
20% Alliance
13% SDLP
7% - null
The combinations are 2 * DUP or 1 Green, 1 DUP.
Two get 2 DUPs, the second DUP must overcome the Green.
Hence 6394 - 4695 = 1649.
For this to happen, then, and assuming the DUP votes split evenly (seems reasonable, as they are neck and neck), and 10% of votes are not redistributed, hence 4183 votes to redistribute:
4183g + 1649 < 0.5 * 4183(1-g)
hence
4183g +1649 = 2091.5 - 2091.5g
hence
6274.5g = 442.5
hence
g > 7%
I.e. Greens pick up less than 300 of the ~4200 votes to be redistributed from the UUP.
On an STV basis they should beat 7% and hence are elected with one of the DUP.