Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If UKIP can’t crack FPTP soon it’ll find itself almost without

13

Comments

  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    USA Today
    New Pew survey: Republicans would trust Trump over GOP congressional leaders https://t.co/q8arargtcL https://t.co/6KgJiv7d7T
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Chris_A said:

    And we can start rejoicing that the disgusting stain of UKIP will be removed from national politics.

    UKIP have persuaded the Conservatives to adopt their principal policy.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    tlg86 said:

    Bojabob said:

    Betting post

    The 7/2 on Leicester to qualify (past Sevilla) looks value.

    They are 2-1 down going into their home leg.

    I've taken it.

    DYOR

    I think I once read a statistic that if the first leg of a European tie was won 2-1 by the home side, it was about 50:50 as to who would qualify. So in that respect those odds do look quite good, but I think Sevilla will score at least once in the second leg.
    There was another similar stat about a side being up at half time vs winning the game. Didn't make any difference IIRC.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048

    So the majority of people in Stoke who, we are told, feel isolated, who feel that politicians don't reflect their views who are left behind did what all like-minded souls do in that situation - stayed at home and didn't bother to vote.

    Surely, with the choice of candidate in this by-election ranging from left-wing Labour, liberal pro-European, UKIP through to the party of Government, they could have found something to justify a trip to the polling station. I would suggest that the problems that lie behind the reason they feel forgotten lies not with politics as a whole.

    Like so much in today's society we just have to accept that a significant number of people simply use their status as the forgotten as a crutch - blaming their own apathy on a convenient scapegoat.

    Turnout was decent enough - 38%, more than Sleaford & North Hykeham which had 20% more GE turnout than Stoke.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,068

    Off-topic:

    Just run my first ever half-marathon. The furthest I've ever run before is nine miles a few weeks ago, and I set out to do 5.5 miles this morning. Once there I felt good, so thought I'd continue to 10k. Felt good after that, so thought I'd try to beat my best distance. At nine miles, thought that I might as well get to ten.

    Then I 'accidentally' headed in a loop away from home, so it was 13.2 miles by the time I got back.

    Woohoo! :)

    2 hours 31 minutes, so a very slow time. But I'm very, very happy. Not bad for someone who was told he'd never walk properly again! (I treat that particular surgeon with a certain amount of contempt).

    I can really recommend couch-to-5k programs for people who think they cannot run. They break you into it very slowly, in such a way that you barely get very out of breath. What's more, they can make it fun.

    Congratulations. I heartily concur. Started couch to 5k at New Year after 30 years of not running. Am now off to do 3k. It is an excellent programme.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    Yes, UKIP must now disband, if only for its own sense of pride. It was never really a proper political party. It served as this strange pseudo-party to which hard-right Tories could threaten to defect, or indeed 'defect', in order to terrify Dave into promising an EU referendum. (Witness how many of its 'defectors' are returning to the Tory fold now the project has been completed.) In that sense I feel a sorry for Nuttall and the other committed UKIP supporters - they genuinely seemed to think they were involved in something authentic.

    It achieved it's goal. We are leaving the EU, the Tories listen to people outside the metropolis, Labour are unelectable, and the LDs are back to being cosy nothingness.

    Just like the old days!
    But if you strip away the tribal party stuff, and the rhetoric aimed at the faithful what difference has it made?

    Labour left office 7 years ago and for a centrist Blairite sort of voter I am struggling to think of any change that has horrified me - have we rolled back devolution, reintroduced fox-hunting or an hereditary HoL, returned to Section 28 on LGBT rights, done away with the minimum wage?

    If you see politics in football terms then if you follow Blue City rather than Red United then you can cheer and hoot at the opposition but what practical difference has there been - even the Tory mantra of sound finances has gone out the window as deficits continue and the National Debt rises inexorably.
    There's a lot of continuity between governments, but I'd say the two big differences between the current government and Blair/Brown are:-

    1. Brexit
    2. Curbs on public spending.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Off-topic:

    Just run my first ever half-marathon. The furthest I've ever run before is nine miles a few weeks ago, and I set out to do 5.5 miles this morning. Once there I felt good, so thought I'd continue to 10k. Felt good after that, so thought I'd try to beat my best distance. At nine miles, thought that I might as well get to ten.

    Then I 'accidentally' headed in a loop away from home, so it was 13.2 miles by the time I got back.

    Woohoo! :)

    2 hours 31 minutes, so a very slow time. But I'm very, very happy. Not bad for someone who was told he'd never walk properly again! (I treat that particular surgeon with a certain amount of contempt).

    I can really recommend couch-to-5k programs for people who think they cannot run. They break you into it very slowly, in such a way that you barely get very out of breath. What's more, they can make it fun.

    Well done you, Mr. Jessup!

    However, as far as I am concerned no programme can ever make running for the sake of it fun. In the mob, when not on operations, we had to run every day except Sunday (the distances varied depending on the weight carried and the time allowed). Stamina training they called it and I hated every minute of it. Essential it may have been, but by the cringe it was tedious. A forced or speed march across Dartmoor (or any of the training grounds) I didn't mind so much but just running was too awful.

    A few years back my quack recommended I took up swimming for exercise. That was even worse. Going up and down a pool for forty minutes was almost the definition of boredom.
  • Options
    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,927
    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    Yes, UKIP must now disband, if only for its own sense of pride. It was never really a proper political party. It served as this strange pseudo-party to which hard-right Tories could threaten to defect, or indeed 'defect', in order to terrify Dave into promising an EU referendum. (Witness how many of its 'defectors' are returning to the Tory fold now the project has been completed.) In that sense I feel a sorry for Nuttall and the other committed UKIP supporters - they genuinely seemed to think they were involved in something authentic.

    It achieved it's goal. We are leaving the EU, the Tories listen to people outside the metropolis, Labour are unelectable, and the LDs are back to being cosy nothingness.

    Just like the old days!
    But if you strip away the tribal party stuff, and the rhetoric aimed at the faithful what difference has it made?

    Labour left office 7 years ago and for a centrist Blairite sort of voter I am struggling to think of any change that has horrified me - have we rolled back devolution, reintroduced fox-hunting or an hereditary HoL, returned to Section 28 on LGBT rights, done away with the minimum wage?

    If you see politics in football terms then if you follow Blue City rather than Red United then you can cheer and hoot at the opposition but what practical difference has there been - even the Tory mantra of sound finances has gone out the window as deficits continue and the National Debt rises inexorably.
    Well I quite obviously don't see politics in football terms as I have voted for three different parties this decade! We are leaving the EU, that is the difference UKIP made, and the one that concerned me most, so I am quite happy too.
    I wasn't talking about UKIP I was responding to your comment that "Labour are unelectable, and the LDs are back to being cosy nothingness, Just like the old days!" My point is what practical difference is that making?

    But if you want to discuss UKIP fine, my take is that in 5 years time people will realise that their "Big Idea" (only idea) was as flawed, as incompetent and as simplistic as their party. The only thing that might save Brexit from being a disaster is that it is not UKIP that has responsibility for delivering it.
    I was making a joke that UKIP have got what they wanted... winding the clock back to the old days
    Completely passed me by I'm afraid
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571
    Sean_F said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    Yes, UKIP must now disband, if only for its own sense of pride. It was never really a proper political party. It served as this strange pseudo-party to which hard-right Tories could threaten to defect, or indeed 'defect', in order to terrify Dave into promising an EU referendum. (Witness how many of its 'defectors' are returning to the Tory fold now the project has been completed.) In that sense I feel a sorry for Nuttall and the other committed UKIP supporters - they genuinely seemed to think they were involved in something authentic.

    It achieved it's goal. We are leaving the EU, the Tories listen to people outside the metropolis, Labour are unelectable, and the LDs are back to being cosy nothingness.

    Just like the old days!
    But if you strip away the tribal party stuff, and the rhetoric aimed at the faithful what difference has it made?

    Labour left office 7 years ago and for a centrist Blairite sort of voter I am struggling to think of any change that has horrified me - have we rolled back devolution, reintroduced fox-hunting or an hereditary HoL, returned to Section 28 on LGBT rights, done away with the minimum wage?

    If you see politics in football terms then if you follow Blue City rather than Red United then you can cheer and hoot at the opposition but what practical difference has there been - even the Tory mantra of sound finances has gone out the window as deficits continue and the National Debt rises inexorably.
    There's a lot of continuity between governments, but I'd say the two big differences between the current government and Blair/Brown are:-

    1. Brexit
    2. Curbs on public spending.
    I think the degree of continuity also shows that the scope of real choices open to an elected government are far narrower than is often claimed by the politicians standing for office.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    He lost (it) a long time ago.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    DavidL said:

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    He lost (it) a long time ago.
    Don't knock him, he earnt me £240 in 2 minutes last night.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    He lost (it) a long time ago.
    Don't knock him, he earnt me £240 in 2 minutes last night.
    I was in bed, what did he do?
  • Options

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    Dele Alli.

    Dirtiest/filthiest tackle since Dirk Diggler went 6 months without washing.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    edited February 2017
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    He lost (it) a long time ago.
    Don't knock him, he earnt me £240 in 2 minutes last night.
    I was in bed, what did he do?
    Called Copeland for Labour during QT.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    He lost (it) a long time ago.
    Don't knock him, he earnt me £240 in 2 minutes last night.
    I was in bed, what did he do?
    Called Copeland for Labour during QT.
    To be fair to Dimblebore, anytime over the past 80 years and he’d have been correct…
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    edited February 2017
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    He lost (it) a long time ago.
    Don't knock him, he earnt me £240 in 2 minutes last night.
    I was in bed, what did he do?
    Sent the Tories to 5-6 - around Evens in Copeland, which I assessed as fair value so I was able to balance up my book a bit, not fully but got 240 of green moved over before the surge settled.

    If the price move wouldn't have happened I wouldn't have moved the profit over.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    edited February 2017
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    He lost (it) a long time ago.
    Don't knock him, he earnt me £240 in 2 minutes last night.
    I was in bed, what did he do?
    Called Copeland for Labour which saw Labour become favourites to win Copeland for a few minutes.

    Not that I'm complaining.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    He lost (it) a long time ago.
    Don't knock him, he earnt me £240 in 2 minutes last night.
    I was in bed, what did he do?
    Called Copeland for Labour during QT.
    Based on anything in particular, or just wishful thinking on his part?
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,806
    tlg86 said:

    Bojabob said:

    Betting post

    The 7/2 on Leicester to qualify (past Sevilla) looks value.

    They are 2-1 down going into their home leg.

    I've taken it.

    DYOR

    I think I once read a statistic that if the first leg of a European tie was won 2-1 by the home side, it was about 50:50 as to who would qualify. So in that respect those odds do look quite good, but I think Sevilla will score at least once in the second leg.
    Stats for 1999-2012 two leg ties here:

    http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum/view.php?archive=2012&topic=20120824150854.xml
  • Options
    daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    Sandpit said:

    Applying the Copeland changes to the 2015 result in Baxter gives Con maj 150 (old boundaries), 148 (new boundaries).

    Adding in a 4 point further swing "back", as someone suggested overnight, gives 226 or 234...

    A majority of 234 on the new boundaries would be completely epic - 417 seats out of 600 :D
    Then if Scotland decides to become a minor province of the Greater German Reich ("independence" I believe their politicians call it) 417 out of 547.
    Not wanting to be part of a Großdeutsches Reich, which is what the EU is becoming, was one of the principal reasons I supported UKIP from 2014-6 and voted leave. However, now that Brexit is happening, UKIP is disintregating into a Dad's Army farce following Farage's departure, and the Tory toff has been replaced by a sensible lady, there is no reason to support UKIP any more. Mr Nuttall is a Walter Mitty character and is a worse leader than Corbyn, who at least appears to be a decent bloke, if incompetent.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,283

    Well done you, Mr. Jessup!

    However, as far as I am concerned no programme can ever make running for the sake of it fun. In the mob, when not on operations, we had to run every day except Sunday (the distances varied depending on the weight carried and the time allowed). Stamina training they called it and I hated every minute of it. Essential it may have been, but by the cringe it was tedious. A forced or speed march across Dartmoor (or any of the training grounds) I didn't mind so much but just running was too awful.

    A few years back my quack recommended I took up swimming for exercise. That was even worse. Going up and down a pool for forty minutes was almost the definition of boredom.

    It's probably the difference between *having* to do something because you are ordered to, and doing it for fun. Before the little 'un came along I'd think nothing of putting a 40-pound rucksack on my back and hiking for a couple of weeks. But I'd have no itinerary; I could do long or short days according to my wishes.

    Listening to podcasts helps massively, something you probably were not allowed to do in the army. I'm currently binging on astronomycast.
    http://www.astronomycast.com/
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    sarissa said:

    tlg86 said:

    Bojabob said:

    Betting post

    The 7/2 on Leicester to qualify (past Sevilla) looks value.

    They are 2-1 down going into their home leg.

    I've taken it.

    DYOR

    I think I once read a statistic that if the first leg of a European tie was won 2-1 by the home side, it was about 50:50 as to who would qualify. So in that respect those odds do look quite good, but I think Sevilla will score at least once in the second leg.
    Stats for 1999-2012 two leg ties here:

    http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum/view.php?archive=2012&topic=20120824150854.xml
    Very interesting, thank you.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Are Long-Bailey and Rayner on that list?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    edited February 2017
    dr_spyn said:

    Are Long-Bailey and Rayner on that list?
    No, only the people on the screen grab they asked about
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,156

    Well done you, Mr. Jessup!

    However, as far as I am concerned no programme can ever make running for the sake of it fun. In the mob, when not on operations, we had to run every day except Sunday (the distances varied depending on the weight carried and the time allowed). Stamina training they called it and I hated every minute of it. Essential it may have been, but by the cringe it was tedious. A forced or speed march across Dartmoor (or any of the training grounds) I didn't mind so much but just running was too awful.

    A few years back my quack recommended I took up swimming for exercise. That was even worse. Going up and down a pool for forty minutes was almost the definition of boredom.

    It's probably the difference between *having* to do something because you are ordered to, and doing it for fun. Before the little 'un came along I'd think nothing of putting a 40-pound rucksack on my back and hiking for a couple of weeks. But I'd have no itinerary; I could do long or short days according to my wishes.

    Listening to podcasts helps massively, something you probably were not allowed to do in the army. I'm currently binging on astronomycast.
    http://www.astronomycast.com/
    I have a cousin (female) who does long distance runs. Competitive ones too. She’s believed by the rest of the family to be a changeling, although to be fair her paternal grandfather was, prior to being severely wounded in WWII, a fine athlete.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    He lost (it) a long time ago.
    Don't knock him, he earnt me £240 in 2 minutes last night.
    I was in bed, what did he do?
    Called Copeland for Labour during QT.
    Based on anything in particular, or just wishful thinking on his part?
    Seemed to have come from the aether.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    edited February 2017

    dr_spyn said:

    Are Long-Bailey and Rayner on that list?
    No, only the people on the screen grab they asked about
    Seems utterly pointless. Brown, Blair Abbott??

    Khan won't be able to until at least 2020, which leaves only Ummna, Benn and McDonnell there, and I wouldn't really put those in the top 3 of possible next leaders.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    The PLP strategy has been decent recently. Essentially they ran silent and deep, which makes Corbyn entirely own the Copeland defeat.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    dr_spyn said:

    Are Long-Bailey and Rayner on that list?
    No, the people on the screen grab they only asked about
    Seems utterly pointless. Brown, Blair Abbott??

    Khan won't be able to until at least 2020, which leaves only Ummna, Benn and McDonnell there, and I wouldn't really put those in the top 3 of possible next leaders.

    Probably more interested in people who would be recognised, and then internally assessing the kind of politics that that person represents.

  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    If you want to watch CPAC live - Trump up next

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44NAEVYsJvQ
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,283
    edited February 2017

    Well done you, Mr. Jessup!

    However, as far as I am concerned no programme can ever make running for the sake of it fun. In the mob, when not on operations, we had to run every day except Sunday (the distances varied depending on the weight carried and the time allowed). Stamina training they called it and I hated every minute of it. Essential it may have been, but by the cringe it was tedious. A forced or speed march across Dartmoor (or any of the training grounds) I didn't mind so much but just running was too awful.

    A few years back my quack recommended I took up swimming for exercise. That was even worse. Going up and down a pool for forty minutes was almost the definition of boredom.

    It's probably the difference between *having* to do something because you are ordered to, and doing it for fun. Before the little 'un came along I'd think nothing of putting a 40-pound rucksack on my back and hiking for a couple of weeks. But I'd have no itinerary; I could do long or short days according to my wishes.

    Listening to podcasts helps massively, something you probably were not allowed to do in the army. I'm currently binging on astronomycast.
    http://www.astronomycast.com/
    I have a cousin (female) who does long distance runs. Competitive ones too. She’s believed by the rest of the family to be a changeling, although to be fair her paternal grandfather was, prior to being severely wounded in WWII, a fine athlete.
    I'm not an athlete. I'm not fast, but I do have endurance. A tortoise rather than a hare.

    It runs in my family too: my paternal grandfather was a great cyclist pre-war. He described pushing a tandem up Jacob's Ladder on Kinder Scout (or the route thereof) with a mate. Or of regularly setting off on a Saturday morning from home in Derby, cycling up to Blackpool, spending the night there, and then cycling back on Sunday. Needless to say, traffic wasn't as bad as it is now.
  • Options
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Mawbs, yes, the new, deliciously orange McLaren has been compared to both Arrows and Spyker.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    Some strong and heartfelt words from Prentiss about how Copeland must be the final warning for Labour...but will words turn to action if things do not improve, and how will that action manifest? When must the final lesson be heeded before it is too late?
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Some strong and heartfelt words from Prentiss about how Copeland must be the final warning for Labour...but will words turn to action if things do not improve, and how will that action manifest? When must the final lesson be heeded before it is too late?

    A donors' strike might force Corbyn out.
  • Options

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    Dele Alli.

    Dirtiest/filthiest tackle since Dirk Diggler went 6 months without washing.
    Nah.... Gazza 2
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    Perhaps it will emerge in years to come that UKIP was a Tory front all along. It certainly suits them to keep it going, siphoning off Labour voted that the Tories cannot win, allowing them through the middle.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    He lost (it) a long time ago.
    Don't knock him, he earnt me £240 in 2 minutes last night.
    I was in bed, what did he do?
    Sent the Tories to 5-6 - around Evens in Copeland, which I assessed as fair value so I was able to balance up my book a bit, not fully but got 240 of green moved over before the surge settled.

    If the price move wouldn't have happened I wouldn't have moved the profit over.
    Lucky no one saw him eat that pie on camera too....
  • Options

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    Dele Alli.

    Dirtiest/filthiest tackle since Dirk Diggler went 6 months without washing.
    Nah.... Gazza 2
    The 1991 FA Cup challenge?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,283
    The difference between the 'hard' left and right are very noticeable. The right got itself energised, formed a party, and actually changed the future direction of the country without ever gaining power.

    The left got their man into the leadership of the Labour party and then said 'meh'.

    Where's their fight? Where's their ambition? Where's their belief?
  • Options

    Biggest loser last night - David Dimbleby?

    Dele Alli.

    Dirtiest/filthiest tackle since Dirk Diggler went 6 months without washing.
    Nah.... Gazza 2
    The 1991 FA Cup challenge?
    correct
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    The PLP strategy has been decent recently. Essentially they ran silent and deep, which makes Corbyn entirely own the Copeland defeat.

    That's not strategy. That's the brace position.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Pulpstar said:

    The PLP strategy has been decent recently. Essentially they ran silent and deep, which makes Corbyn entirely own the Copeland defeat.

    I agree entirely with this. They gave him the rope, and he has hanged himself by the neck until, well, nearly dead. But he won't go, and he will lead the Labour party to the biggest catastrophe in their history. At least I very much hope that is what happens, and a decent political force takes over from the stinking cadaver that is left rotting.
  • Options
    Ian Lavery, MP:

    "Jeremy Corbyn is one of the most popular politicians in the country at this moment in time. "

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/24/stoke-and-copeland-byelections-corbyn-allies-blame-disunity-for-labours-historic-defeat-politics-live

    14.00
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,156

    Well done you, Mr. Jessup!

    However, as far as I am concerned no programme can ever make running for the sake of it fun. In the mob, when not on operations, we had to run every day except Sunday (the distances varied depending on the weight carried and the time allowed). Stamina training they called it and I hated every minute of it. Essential it may have been, but by the cringe it was tedious. A forced or speed march across Dartmoor (or any of the training grounds) I didn't mind so much but just running was too awful.

    A few years back my quack recommended I took up swimming for exercise. That was even worse. Going up and down a pool for forty minutes was almost the definition of boredom.

    It's probably the difference between *having* to do something because you are ordered to, and doing it for fun. Before the little 'un came along I'd think nothing of putting a 40-pound rucksack on my back and hiking for a couple of weeks. But I'd have no itinerary; I could do long or short days according to my wishes.

    Listening to podcasts helps massively, something you probably were not allowed to do in the army. I'm currently binging on astronomycast.
    http://www.astronomycast.com/
    I have a cousin (female) who does long distance runs. Competitive ones too. She’s believed by the rest of the family to be a changeling, although to be fair her paternal grandfather was, prior to being severely wounded in WWII, a fine athlete.
    I'm not an athlete. I'm not fast, but I do have endurance. A tortoise rather than a hare.

    It runs in my family too: my paternal grandfather was a great cyclist pre-war. He described pushing a tandem up Jacob's Ladder on Kinder Scout (or the route thereof) with a mate. Or of regularly setting off on a Saturday morning from home in Derby, cycling up to Blackpool, spending the night there, and then cycling back on Sunday. Needless to say, traffic wasn't as bad as it is now.
    I don’t know about before War, of course, but in the early to mid 50’s I used regularly to cycle a 25 mile round trip to and from school. That was along a major A road too; no way would that be safe today.
    People used to do time trial along the A127 in my youth, too!
  • Options

    Ian Lavery, MP:

    "Jeremy Corbyn is one of the most popular politicians in the country at this moment in time. "

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/24/stoke-and-copeland-byelections-corbyn-allies-blame-disunity-for-labours-historic-defeat-politics-live

    14.00

    In the same way dysentery is popular?
  • Options
    Last September was peak Corbyn. The result was 313,209 votes to 193,229. Essentially 60,000 people need to change their minds. Given what has happened since the election and a better alternative candidate it really is not beyond the bounds of possibility - especially if the unions are actively against him.
  • Options

    Ian Lavery, MP:

    "Jeremy Corbyn is one of the most popular politicians in the country at this moment in time. "

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/24/stoke-and-copeland-byelections-corbyn-allies-blame-disunity-for-labours-historic-defeat-politics-live

    14.00

    but even more genius is this from that piece... an issue unique to Copeland

    The issues in Copeland weren’t about Jeremy Corbyn. The issues in Copeland were about jobs and about the economy. People were worried about those.
  • Options

    Ian Lavery, MP:

    "Jeremy Corbyn is one of the most popular politicians in the country at this moment in time. "

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/24/stoke-and-copeland-byelections-corbyn-allies-blame-disunity-for-labours-historic-defeat-politics-live

    14.00

    In the same way dysentery is popular?
    To be fair, he does go on to say:

    "The issues in Copeland weren’t about Jeremy Corbyn. The issues in Copeland were about jobs and about the economy. People were worried about those."

    Quite right, Ian. That's why the Conservative won.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,156
    IanB2 said:

    Perhaps it will emerge in years to come that UKIP was a Tory front all along. It certainly suits them to keep it going, siphoning off Labour voted that the Tories cannot win, allowing them through the middle.


    There are some odd somethings crawling out from a few stones; what about the national .... UK-wide ....... Leave advert by the DUP funded by an anonymous donor.
    Before any Leaver complains, there was some dodgy Remain funding, too.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108
    kle4 said:

    Some strong and heartfelt words from Prentiss about how Copeland must be the final warning for Labour...but will words turn to action if things do not improve, and how will that action manifest? When must the final lesson be heeded before it is too late?

    What chance the next catastrophic performance (May locals?) produces no more than another 'final, and we mean final this time' warning? When will they actually *DO* something about the problem?
  • Options
    RobCRobC Posts: 398
    It can't be long before Carswell returns to the Tory party. The only reason to stay on in Ukip presumably is if he feels T May might somehow back track on the full Brexit. In the meantime I suspect at least some Lib Dem party tacticians will be as keen as the Tories to see Corbyn remain as Lab leader and ensure the mini revival continues. Others though may be sniffing out realignment opportunities.
  • Options
    I hope no pbers lost their shirts listening to dimblebore performance on QT last night.
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    The difference between the 'hard' left and right are very noticeable. The right got itself energised, formed a party, and actually changed the future direction of the country without ever gaining power.

    The left got their man into the leadership of the Labour party and then said 'meh'.

    Where's their fight? Where's their ambition? Where's their belief?

    As usual on the left the real fight is forgotten in the narcissism of small differences for the much more interesting fight between the People's Front for Judia and the Judean People's Front. The kippers are a bunch of buffoons, but at least they are mostly pulling in the same direction.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How does one attach a photo please?

    Afternoon Ms Cyclefree – if the photo is on the net, just cut'n'paste the URL location and embed. If it is a photo on your PC, you’ll need to upload to a social media site.
    Ah OK thanks. Am not on social media so you will all have to do without the sight of Mrs May campaigning amongst an enthusiastic crowd in the main (the only) square in Millom, a place even more remote than Whitehaven and right at the bottom of the Copeland constituency.

    Whatever you may think of her, the fact that she is willing to make this sort of effort speaks well of her.

    Now, all she has to do is stop those bloody pylons being plastered all across the Whicham valley.........

    Email it to me and I'll upload it on here.
    Have just done so.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Some strong and heartfelt words from Prentiss about how Copeland must be the final warning for Labour...but will words turn to action if things do not improve, and how will that action manifest? When must the final lesson be heeded before it is too late?

    What chance the next catastrophic performance (May locals?) produces no more than another 'final, and we mean final this time' warning? When will they actually *DO* something about the problem?
    Quite. The failed coup has stung the MPs, they won't want to try again unless assured of success, but someone has to actually put their head above the parapet, someone Corbyn cannot ignore. It has to be the unions, en masse. Even if they think he believes and says the right things, if he damages the cause what good does that do their members?
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    The difference between the 'hard' left and right are very noticeable. The right got itself energised, formed a party, and actually changed the future direction of the country without ever gaining power.

    The left got their man into the leadership of the Labour party and then said 'meh'.

    Where's their fight? Where's their ambition? Where's their belief?

    As usual on the left the real fight is forgotten in the narcissism of small differences for the much more interesting fight between the People's Front for Judia and the Judean People's Front. The kippers are a bunch of buffoons, but at least they are mostly pulling in the same direction.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Sean_Kemp: Sad, but after the way he's been treated by the locals it wouldn't surprise me if Paul Nuttall decided to sell his place in Stoke.
  • Options
    Paddy Power have the election odds out for the NIA. I'm going to try and put something together but first look is that they have not been very well thought out.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @christopherhope: Jeremy Corbyn's day has just got worse. The train which was meant to take him to Stoke for his belated victory lap has been cancelled.
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: Jeremy Corbyn's day has just got worse. The train which was meant to take him to Stoke for his belated victory lap has been cancelled.

    At least he won't have to worry about finding somewhere to sit.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: Jeremy Corbyn's day has just got worse. The train which was meant to take him to Stoke for his belated victory lap has been cancelled.

    Jezza doesn't have a lot of luck with trains....If only they were re-nationized
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: Jeremy Corbyn's day has just got worse. The train which was meant to take him to Stoke for his belated victory lap has been cancelled.

    At least he won't have to worry about finding somewhere to sit.
    I am sure it would have been "ram-packed"
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, well - so much for the European Arrest Warrant. A French trader charged by the SFO in relation to the rigging of Euribor (like Libor) cannot, according to the French courts, be extradited even under the EAW because what he did happened on French territory and wasn't outlawed when it happened.

    Interesting for two reasons: odd to suggest that conspiracy to commit fraud was not illegal in France in 2005. And it sends out a very poor signal re the French authorities' willingness to police their financial system.

    Also an interesting question of where what he did had effect. So if he was trading in London registered bonds, even from Paris, did that not have effect here? I would have thought so.

    ESMA are very quickly going to look pretty ridiculous if they seek to exclude London from the regulation of financial trading across the Continent. The pressure to accept UK regulation as equivalent (effectively allowing the Single Passport) can only be helped by idiocies like this.
    This - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-22/ex-socgen-trader-fends-off-arrest-warrant-in-u-k-euribor-case - is the relevant article.

    It's one reason why I'm skeptical about France's claims that it can replace the UK as Europe's financial centre.

    Being seen as a place where a trader can get away with this sort of behavior is not - or should not be - an advantage. The bad smell emanating from traders such as this attaches itself to everyone.
  • Options
    #faketraintimetable
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    edited February 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How does one attach a photo please?

    Afternoon Ms Cyclefree – if the photo is on the net, just cut'n'paste the URL location and embed. If it is a photo on your PC, you’ll need to upload to a social media site.
    Ah OK thanks. Am not on social media so you will all have to do without the sight of Mrs May campaigning amongst an enthusiastic crowd in the main (the only) square in Millom, a place even more remote than Whitehaven and right at the bottom of the Copeland constituency.

    Whatever you may think of her, the fact that she is willing to make this sort of effort speaks well of her.

    Now, all she has to do is stop those bloody pylons being plastered all across the Whicham valley.........

    Email it to me and I'll upload it on here.
    Have just done so.
    Will post them in a few mins
  • Options

    The difference between the 'hard' left and right are very noticeable. The right got itself energised, formed a party, and actually changed the future direction of the country without ever gaining power.

    The left got their man into the leadership of the Labour party and then said 'meh'.

    Where's their fight? Where's their ambition? Where's their belief?

    The far left is not interested in defeating the Tories. It's enemy is the centre-left. What the far left wants is to turn the Labour party into something akin to a mass movement with MP-delegates in the Commons as an added extra. It's ambition is for the workers to seize power through protest and uprising. It really is. Obviously, that is never going to happen, so it is currently stuck, hoping that something will turn up.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,294

    Off-topic:

    Just run my first ever half-marathon. The furthest I've ever run before is nine miles a few weeks ago, and I set out to do 5.5 miles this morning. Once there I felt good, so thought I'd continue to 10k. Felt good after that, so thought I'd try to beat my best distance. At nine miles, thought that I might as well get to ten.

    Then I 'accidentally' headed in a loop away from home, so it was 13.2 miles by the time I got back.

    Woohoo! :)

    2 hours 31 minutes, so a very slow time. But I'm very, very happy. Not bad for someone who was told he'd never walk properly again! (I treat that particular surgeon with a certain amount of contempt).

    I can really recommend couch-to-5k programs for people who think they cannot run. They break you into it very slowly, in such a way that you barely get very out of breath. What's more, they can make it fun.

    Well done you, Mr. Jessup!

    However, as far as I am concerned no programme can ever make running for the sake of it fun. In the mob, when not on operations, we had to run every day except Sunday (the distances varied depending on the weight carried and the time allowed). Stamina training they called it and I hated every minute of it. Essential it may have been, but by the cringe it was tedious. A forced or speed march across Dartmoor (or any of the training grounds) I didn't mind so much but just running was too awful.

    A few years back my quack recommended I took up swimming for exercise. That was even worse. Going up and down a pool for forty minutes was almost the definition of boredom.
    To make swimming interesting, get a waterproof MP3 player and download podcasts. I listen to Planet Money, Freakonomics Radio, and the PB podcast while I swim
  • Options
    The first Cyclefree picimage
  • Options
    Gareth Snell comes across as an absolute moron.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048

    Paddy Power have the election odds out for the NIA. I'm going to try and put something together but first look is that they have not been very well thought out.

    Should I back the Tories in Foyle ?

    300-1..
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: Jeremy Corbyn's day has just got worse. The train which was meant to take him to Stoke for his belated victory lap has been cancelled.

    At least he won't have to worry about finding somewhere to sit.
    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/835047101637804032
  • Options
    The second Cyclefree picture

    image
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just run my first ever half-marathon. The furthest I've ever run before is nine miles a few weeks ago, and I set out to do 5.5 miles this morning. Once there I felt good, so thought I'd continue to 10k. Felt good after that, so thought I'd try to beat my best distance. At nine miles, thought that I might as well get to ten.

    Then I 'accidentally' headed in a loop away from home, so it was 13.2 miles by the time I got back.

    Woohoo! :)

    2 hours 31 minutes, so a very slow time. But I'm very, very happy. Not bad for someone who was told he'd never walk properly again! (I treat that particular surgeon with a certain amount of contempt).

    I can really recommend couch-to-5k programs for people who think they cannot run. They break you into it very slowly, in such a way that you barely get very out of breath. What's more, they can make it fun.

    Well done you, Mr. Jessup!

    However, as far as I am concerned no programme can ever make running for the sake of it fun. In the mob, when not on operations, we had to run every day except Sunday (the distances varied depending on the weight carried and the time allowed). Stamina training they called it and I hated every minute of it. Essential it may have been, but by the cringe it was tedious. A forced or speed march across Dartmoor (or any of the training grounds) I didn't mind so much but just running was too awful.

    A few years back my quack recommended I took up swimming for exercise. That was even worse. Going up and down a pool for forty minutes was almost the definition of boredom.
    To make swimming interesting, get a waterproof MP3 player and download podcasts. I listen to Planet Money, Freakonomics Radio, and the PB podcast while I swim
    Freakonomics podcast is top notch.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,927
    Sean_F said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    Yes, UKIP must now disband, if only for its own sense of pride. It was never really a proper political party. It served as this strange pseudo-party to which hard-right Tories could threaten to defect, or indeed 'defect', in order to terrify Dave into promising an EU referendum. (Witness how many of its 'defectors' are returning to the Tory fold now the project has been completed.) In that sense I feel a sorry for Nuttall and the other committed UKIP supporters - they genuinely seemed to think they were involved in something authentic.

    It achieved it's goal. We are leaving the EU, the Tories listen to people outside the metropolis, Labour are unelectable, and the LDs are back to being cosy nothingness.

    Just like the old days!
    But if you strip away the tribal party stuff, and the rhetoric aimed at the faithful what difference has it made?

    Labour left office 7 years ago and for a centrist Blairite sort of voter I am struggling to think of any change that has horrified me - have we rolled back devolution, reintroduced fox-hunting or an hereditary HoL, returned to Section 28 on LGBT rights, done away with the minimum wage?

    If you see politics in football terms then if you follow Blue City rather than Red United then you can cheer and hoot at the opposition but what practical difference has there been - even the Tory mantra of sound finances has gone out the window as deficits continue and the National Debt rises inexorably.
    There's a lot of continuity between governments, but I'd say the two big differences between the current government and Blair/Brown are:-

    1. Brexit
    2. Curbs on public spending.
    But Brexit wasn't down to the government, it was the referendum. If it had been up to the Tory government we would not have left, Even May doesn't support Leaving she is just implementing the result and trying to make the best of it.

    As for curbs on public spending Labour would be getting the dog's abuse if it were running the current deficit.

    It's really all about partisan cheering and rhetoric for the core vote, In reality nothing much really changes. What did the "hated" Labour government do during its 13 years in office that has been actually reversed in the last 7 years?
  • Options

    Gareth Snell comes across as an absolute moron.

    It might have something to with the fact that he is a moron!
  • Options

    The difference between the 'hard' left and right are very noticeable. The right got itself energised, formed a party, and actually changed the future direction of the country without ever gaining power.

    The left got their man into the leadership of the Labour party and then said 'meh'.

    Where's their fight? Where's their ambition? Where's their belief?

    As usual on the left the real fight is forgotten in the narcissism of small differences for the much more interesting fight between the People's Front for Judia and the Judean People's Front. The kippers are a bunch of buffoons, but at least they are mostly pulling in the same direction.
    https://twitter.com/PhilipCJames/status/835096962340958208
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    Yes, UKIP must now disband, if only for its own sense of pride. It was never really a proper political party. It served as this strange pseudo-party to which hard-right Tories could threaten to defect, or indeed 'defect', in order to terrify Dave into promising an EU referendum. (Witness how many of its 'defectors' are returning to the Tory fold now the project has been completed.) In that sense I feel a sorry for Nuttall and the other committed UKIP supporters - they genuinely seemed to think they were involved in something authentic.

    It achieved it's goal. We are leaving the EU, the Tories listen to people outside the metropolis, Labour are unelectable, and the LDs are back to being cosy nothingness.

    Just like the old days!
    But if you strip away the tribal party stuff, and the rhetoric aimed at the faithful what difference has it made?

    Labour left office 7 years ago and for a centrist Blairite sort of voter I am struggling to think of any change that has horrified me - have we rolled back devolution, reintroduced fox-hunting or an hereditary HoL, returned to Section 28 on LGBT rights, done away with the minimum wage?

    If you see politics in football terms then if you follow Blue City rather than Red United then you can cheer and hoot at the opposition but what practical difference has there been - even the Tory mantra of sound finances has gone out the window as deficits continue and the National Debt rises inexorably.
    There's a lot of continuity between governments, but I'd say the two big differences between the current government and Blair/Brown are:-

    1. Brexit
    2. Curbs on public spending.
    But Brexit wasn't down to the government, it was the referendum. If it had been up to the Tory government we would not have left, Even May doesn't support Leaving she is just implementing the result and trying to make the best of it.

    As for curbs on public spending Labour would be getting the dog's abuse if it were running the current deficit.

    It's really all about partisan cheering and rhetoric for the core vote, In reality nothing much really changes. What did the "hated" Labour government do during its 13 years in office that has been actually reversed in the last 7 years?
    A Labour government would never have offered such a referendum. Labour would have made cuts after 2009, but they would have relied even more on higher taxes than the current government has.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,927
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    Yes, UKIP must now disband, if only for its own sense of pride. It was never really a proper political party. It served as this strange pseudo-party to which hard-right Tories could threaten to defect, or indeed 'defect', in order to terrify Dave into promising an EU referendum. (Witness how many of its 'defectors' are returning to the Tory fold now the project has been completed.) In that sense I feel a sorry for Nuttall and the other committed UKIP supporters - they genuinely seemed to think they were involved in something authentic.

    It achieved it's goal. We are leaving the EU, the Tories listen to people outside the metropolis, Labour are unelectable, and the LDs are back to being cosy nothingness.

    Just like the old days!
    But if you strip away the tribal party stuff, and the rhetoric aimed at the faithful what difference has it made?

    Labour left office 7 years ago and for a centrist Blairite sort of voter I am struggling to think of any change that has horrified me - have we rolled back devolution, reintroduced fox-hunting or an hereditary HoL, returned to Section 28 on LGBT rights, done away with the minimum wage?

    If you see politics in football terms then if you follow Blue City rather than Red United then you can cheer and hoot at the opposition but what practical difference has there been - even the Tory mantra of sound finances has gone out the window as deficits continue and the National Debt rises inexorably.
    There's a lot of continuity between governments, but I'd say the two big differences between the current government and Blair/Brown are:-

    1. Brexit
    2. Curbs on public spending.
    I think the degree of continuity also shows that the scope of real choices open to an elected government are far narrower than is often claimed by the politicians standing for office.

    Precisely, I read someone down thread saying it would be "epic" if the Tories won 400 seats at the next GE and I thought, yes, but what practical difference is it actually going to make?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,426
    edited February 2017

    The difference between the 'hard' left and right are very noticeable. The right got itself energised, formed a party, and actually changed the future direction of the country without ever gaining power.

    The left got their man into the leadership of the Labour party and then said 'meh'.

    Where's their fight? Where's their ambition? Where's their belief?

    As usual on the left the real fight is forgotten in the narcissism of small differences for the much more interesting fight between the People's Front for Judia and the Judean People's Front. The kippers are a bunch of buffoons, but at least they are mostly pulling in the same direction.
    UKIP/AFL wasn't formed as a right wing party, and the the internecine squabbles as Farage took control were pretty angry. Also, I'm not sure if one elected member punching another counts as mostly pulling in the same direction.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    edited February 2017
    Does the LOTO have to be British.
    Wonder if Labour could import some foreign talent, does that Bayrou chap (Now he has ruled himself out the French elecs) speak English - could he be their Wenger :D ?
    Obama is another possibility, though I doubt he is interested in the job to put it mildly.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2017
    To be fair, she is doing what UKIP want. There is no need for parties to exist for the sake of it, its about getting things done, not just being a brand

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/835104955967160320
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    Great stuff from Dimblebore :)

    Conservatives 2.08 4.00 Back 23-Feb-17 23:15 4.32
    Conservatives 2.08 28.00 Back 23-Feb-17 23:16 30.24
    Conservatives 2.08 35.00 Back 23-Feb-17 23:16 37.80
    Conservatives 2.02 85.00 Back 23-Feb-17 23:16 86.70
    Conservatives 1.75 100.00 Back 23-Feb-17 23:18 75.49
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329
    As I predicted, Trump does not care about Brexit. Expect him to say some very unhelpful things when the going gets tough.

    https://twitter.com/reuters/status/834904047056482308
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    isam said:

    To be fair, she is doing what UKIP want. There is no need for parties to exist for the sake of it, its about getting things done, not just being a brand

    That sort of attitude is not acceptable on PB!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, well - so much for the European Arrest Warrant. A French trader charged by the SFO in relation to the rigging of Euribor (like Libor) cannot, according to the French courts, be extradited even under the EAW because what he did happened on French territory and wasn't outlawed when it happened.

    Interesting for two reasons: odd to suggest that conspiracy to commit fraud was not illegal in France in 2005. And it sends out a very poor signal re the French authorities' willingness to police their financial system.

    Also an interesting question of where what he did had effect. So if he was trading in London registered bonds, even from Paris, did that not have effect here? I would have thought so.

    ESMA are very quickly going to look pretty ridiculous if they seek to exclude London from the regulation of financial trading across the Continent. The pressure to accept UK regulation as equivalent (effectively allowing the Single Passport) can only be helped by idiocies like this.
    This - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-22/ex-socgen-trader-fends-off-arrest-warrant-in-u-k-euribor-case - is the relevant article.

    It's one reason why I'm skeptical about France's claims that it can replace the UK as Europe's financial centre.

    Being seen as a place where a trader can get away with this sort of behavior is not - or should not be - an advantage. The bad smell emanating from traders such as this attaches itself to everyone.
    Surely the whole point of the EAW is that the merits of the case don't get discussed, only that the correct process has been followed by the (in this case British) authorities in making the request. Or is this slightly different because it has to consider the EAW as it was a decade ago?
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Does the LOTO have to be British.
    Wonder if Labour could import some foreign talent, does that Bayrou chap (Now he has ruled himself out the French elecs) speak English - could he be their Wenger :D ?
    Obama is another possibility, though I doubt he is interested in the job to put it mildly.

    If they can hang on for a few weeks, Ed Milliband's hero François Hollande should be available.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    Not hard to read between the lines regarding Trump and the EU.

    Essentially he couldn't give a shit how Europe organises itself as that is their business, not his.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: After last night, you can walk from coast to coast across the north of England and only go through Conservative constituencies
This discussion has been closed.