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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on whether Diane Abbott will be Shadow Home Secretary at the end of 2017
William Hill have a market up whether or not Diane Abbott will be Shadow Home Secretary at the end of 2017. It has been a difficult few weeks for her, particularly over the Article 50 votes, so I can understand why William Hill have put up this market. I’ve spent a few hours trying to work out what the best option is, and I still can’t decide. I think if I had to choose I’d take the 3/1 but it is no bet for me because of that.
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This is worth a look
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/19/trevor-phillips-i-dont-care-about-offending-people-has-political-correctness-gone-mad-channel-4?CMP=share_btn_tw
http://www.dailywire.com/news/13590/there-isnt-just-one-bubble-there-are-least-two-and-ben-shapiro#exit-modal
"...Here’s the truth: both sides are now in a bubble.
Right now, Trump enjoys an 84 percent approval rating from Republicans and those who lean Republican, according to Pew Research; he gets just 8 percent approval from Democrats and those who lean that way. By contrast, at this point in their presidencies, Reagan had a 39 percent approval rating among Democrats; George H.W. Bush had a 46 percent approval rating among Democrats; Obama had a 37 percent approval rating from Republicans. This is the most polarized electorate in modern American history.
Quinnipiac pegs the polarization even more starkly: according to their polling, Trump has a 91 percent favorable rating among Republicans but a 3 percent favorable rating among Democrats. And we’re still less than a month in.
That’s because everybody is now seeing the news through the prism of revenge. That's not due to Trump. This has been brewing for years...
I can't see Corbyn moving her... He doesn't have enough people who want to be in his shadow cabinet as it is...
So I think she will stay... But 2/9 isn't very tempting odds.
It isn't a recipe for a healthy America going forwards.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/444985/mainstream-media-too-comfortable-factual-errors
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39015879
While the images are rather funny, is this really front page news material for a respected broadcaster like the BBC?
But these days anything about Trump people will click on....
It may be that the front page is delivered differently to different countries.
On a slightly different note, there's another headline: "Trump & Bingham into Welsh Open final". Who knew that the POTUS was so good at snooker?
However the new media tend to far, far worse, for the same reasons and more.
Their goal is to make up plausible lies and make money from clicks.
Demagogues like Hitler spoke to massive crowds at rallies, but only those there got the ‘benefit’ of it. Those who were not had to read about it or watch extracts at the cinema. Trump can, and does, use the TV and internet, to speak to anyone who cares to watch.
Last night’s effort was chilling.
Though there are some excellent specialist websites out there; in technology, ARSTechnica and Anandtech are two that seem to actually perform analysis. Both can have excellent comments below the line - though Anandtech seems to be slipping slightly in terms of analysis.
Arstechnica is excellent for another reason: as well as discussing what is in a paper, they actually link to the paper so the reader can make up their own minds. I *wish* the BBC would do that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27939865
I doubt similar tech would appeal to UK voters; it may in the US.
What's worrying are the approval ratings. Not surprising that 80-90% of Democrats oppose him. But 80-90% Republicans actually approve of him ? After seeing what has happened in the last month ?
I remember people saying after Pence was selected that he is one from the religious right. I will tell you, people will be only too happy to see him take over.
Although I suspect that simultaneous election rallies, a bit like the big TV participatory events ...... Last Night of the Proms and so on ....... are more likely to be the way we’ll go.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-39016582
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/08/irish-border-checks-impossible-after-brexit-says-ambassador-daniel-mulhall?client=safari
In fact, we could go a bit further. No need to have customs check in Heathrow, Dover.......
https://phys.org/news/2017-02-french-presidential-campaign-high-tech-hologram.html
As to "Immigration control" I think you'll find you already need photo ID to pass between Ireland and the UK - unless you want to swim. As the Irish ambassador points out, why go to the faff of flying to Dublin, driving to Belfast then flying to the UK when you can fly directly to Stansted? Unless you think we're going to be issuing visas for European visitors?
Another point: High tariff item. What will stop the importer having it pass through Ireland into Northern Ireland ?
EDIT: Just gone in via a VPN to access it as if I were in the USA. I can see the small item under "Other news" on the first page. Apologies.
Again. Weird. I have a comment, posted it, but it never showed.
Anyway.
I wouldn't back the bet. It's certainly a credible outcome, but the odds are rubbish and you have to wait nearly 10 months.
If Tiny Trump shows in Germany the BBC might get prosecuted under their Kaiser era law!
There are no checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Same country. If there are going to be no checks between Ireland and Northern Ireland, then effectively there will be no checks between the EU [ Ireland ] and Britain.
P.S. I don't know how I maintain my properties without going there.
there are lots of checks still
However, the EU has always had very high tariffs on a number of things, especially food, to protect its main customers and force the single market more firmly together.
Therefore, if there are controls it is likely to be the EU trying to protect its own barriers to entry and avoid say, American or Indian companies sending their goods tariff free into the EU via Belfast and Londonderry. Although neither we nor the Irish will like it, I'm not sure there's much we can do particularly if they decide to play silly buggers in the exit negotiations.
you'll save yourself hundreds of euros
nobody stops you
So, let me put it this way. If a Romanian flew into Dublin, then took a bus ride to Belfast and then took a flight or the ferry to Britain and found himself a job [ illegally ] , you would have no problem with that ?
You can imagine a similar route for high tariff goods
As for the Romanian that's what happens today and the EU wont agree to us restricting access to benefits in the way Germany does.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/26/germany-scrap-law-bans-insulting-foreign-leaders/
Labour at a UK level should have branded itself the party for Remain voters.
Those who wished to stay in the EU may have formed a minority but it is a sizeable one and Labour’s decision to ignore them may yet prove fatal.
Labour MPs who have now agreed to play their part in ensuring a swift Brexit are fools if they believe there is anything to be gained electorally from their position.
Voters who wanted the UK out of Europe can get the red-blooded, full-fat version of isolationism from the Tory right and Ukip. By comparison, Labour’s Brexit vision – we’ll support it but we don’t like it – lacks oomph.
Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-why-blair-speech-heralds-birth-of-a-new-party-1-4370418
I'm also slightly puzzled (albeit also flattered, of course) that you felt the need to respond to it twice. Just one minor correction to your first point - I am not English. The clue is in the user name...
Thanks Miss Vance, Mr. StClare, Mr. Jessop.
cigarettes anyone ?
The Irish are riding the wrong horse.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/establishment-running-away-from-brexit-plan-truth-35462897.html
The bravado in this headline doesn't conceal the concern at the customs union;
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/0217/853499-david-murphy-uk-triumph-of-optimism-over-realism/
The nearest thing I can equate it to is Scottish nationalists. Everything, no matter what, becomes justification for the outcome desired, so there may well be plenty of sense behind the position, maybe it is the best idea, but when everything is treated with equal seriousness - be it a luvvie being stupid, too many puff pieces or actual bias or incompetence - it somewhat undermines the message outside the core, since that's always the message.
See also 'the NHS is in crisis' (when isn't it?).
And before they angrily mock and dismiss me, could any nationalists note I specified 'maybe' there's plenty of sense and maybe even the best ideas coming from such people, it was about how the message, any message, can oversaturate depending on how it is transmitted.
For 10 months now, Labour has been in remarkably constant decline. Alienating another 1% of the electorate every 6 or 7 weeks. https://t.co/fKBQ0ATRe7
The main one is Corbyn going, which seems less likely than two weeks ago before Walter Nutty's Stoke shenanigans, but still a fair chance, and there's several other entirely plausible ways it could occur.
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/02/16/brexit-customs-unions-and-borders/
With that I am off. Have a good week everyone!
Still a couple of months to go, of course.
Now you might argue that the Crown Jewels list needs updating/abolishing, but the BBC's should care more about keeping more sport on free to air television rather than securing events that they think should be on the BBC rather than a commercial free to air rival.
The problem for the EU would be that in the event of putting tariffs on UK goods the boom in cross border.... traffic would be immense. And once in Ireland, the goods would be almost impossible to stop.
The immigration issue is pretty much a non-issue. A number of people smugglers have tried getting people into Ireland and pointing them in the direction of the border. Once in NI, they have found there is a small, small problem. Leaving NI to get to the main land. Without valid papers which allow you to be in NI in the first place, getting on a plane or a boat just doesn't happen. The border at the NI ports and Belfast airport works - simply because it has to.. to keep track of certain amusing people.
Being a permanent resident of Portadown strangely fails to appeal to the "refugees".