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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reports that Corbyn “has fixed his exit date” sets off betting

SystemSystem Posts: 11,695
edited February 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reports that Corbyn “has fixed his exit date” sets off betting rush on when he’ll go and who’ll replace him

Overnight there has been a bit of a betting flowey following reports that Corbyn has shared with Close colleagues his planned date to leave the LAB leadership. William Hill say thry’ve been forced to take evasive action by slashing their odds for Jeremy Corbyn to cease to be Labour leader during 2017, after a rush of bets for him saw the odds slashed from 2/1 (33% chance) to Even money (50%).

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    First.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First.

    Sneaky!
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,324
    Third
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First.

    Does the word "recuse" exist in your vocabulary?

    First (*following stewards' enquiry).
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    Yes, losing PMQs to Corbyn is as shameful as losing a war to France.

    Just imagine in the debates of 2020, someone like Sir Keir, or Hillary Benn could destroy Theresa May.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First.

    Does the word "recuse" exist in your vocabulary?

    First (*following stewards' enquiry).
    I'm never first on threads that I publish.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,961
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yes, losing PMQs to Corbyn is as shameful as losing a war to France.

    Just imagine in the debates of 2020, someone like Sir Keir, or Hillary Benn could destroy Theresa May.

    Just imagine the humiliation if Copeland remains Labour on the 23rd.

    The 2-1 seems very long ! - 50:50 at best for the Tories.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    So, now we have to have Labour lose the by-elections, to keep him from leaving office with kudos? And so, have to stay in post?

    My head is spinning....

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Betfair have a market in quarters on JC exit date.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.120629015
    Q3 2017 is at 5.3, which covers the scheduled Labour Conference in September.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    If Corbyn won both seats why would he step down any time soon? Of course the latest approval rating polling still shows May with a clear lead over Starmer too and if anything the most likely replacement for Corbyn at the moment is his ideological soulmate John McDonnell
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    I'm also on Miss Long-Bailey at 66/1, I felt quite smug about that until when two of PB's most astute gamblers are on her at 350/1 and 500/1 plus, the bastards.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "An outspoken Saudi royal who hoped to bring “objective” journalism to the Arab world was forced to give up his television venture yesterday, when the channel failed to find a new home after it was shut down in Bahrain."

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/saudi-billionaire-forced-to-close-objective-tv-channel-j7jgf86v9
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yes, losing PMQs to Corbyn is as shameful as losing a war to France.

    Just imagine in the debates of 2020, someone like Sir Keir, or Hillary Benn could destroy Theresa May.

    Lets' not start ****ing each others' *****s just yet (Pulp Fiction). Even if Corbyn goes the constituency for voting on his replacement is the one that chose him in 2015 and 16. I am guessing that he will nominate a successor, who will get elected, and won't be Benn or Starmer.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yes, losing PMQs to Corbyn is as shameful as losing a war to France.

    Just imagine in the debates of 2020, someone like Sir Keir, or Hillary Benn could destroy Theresa May.

    Jon Ashworth and Harriet Harman have both been on manoeuvres. He has union backing, she has the sisterhood.

    I am well covered on both but HH is a proven parliamentary performer, and Ashworth an effective organiser.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    edited February 2017
    It says a a lot about the current Labour party that holding two seats whilst they are in opposition is construed as some some of sort of victory.

    Off the top of my head, Romsey 2000 and Mitchin and Morden in 1982 are the two times the principal opposition have lost seats in by elections.

    Are there more in recent times?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maybe Theresa May will reconsider calling an election this year if the reports about Corbyn standing down before 2020 are true.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "An outspoken Saudi royal who hoped to bring “objective” journalism to the Arab world was forced to give up his television venture yesterday, when the channel failed to find a new home after it was shut down in Bahrain."

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/saudi-billionaire-forced-to-close-objective-tv-channel-j7jgf86v9

    I am sure Bercow will still be more than happy to host Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992
    HYUFD said:

    If Corbyn won both seats why would he step down any time soon? Of course the latest approval rating polling still shows May with a clear lead over Starmer too and if anything the most likely replacement for Corbyn at the moment is his ideological soulmate John McDonnell

    No one really knows who Starmer is though, and McDonnell would struggle to get nominated.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2017
    "A general election in which Theresa May is fighting Keir Starmer, Hilary Benn, Clive Lewis, would be of a totally different magnitude than her facing Jeremy Corbyn."

    Ah, but what would be the membership's price?

    If Labour wishes to redefine as an anti-Brexit party - and there has to be a chance of that happening via a leadership contest - we should bear in mind that Leave won in about 430 seats.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Corbyn has survived a vote of no confidence, mass resignations and a recent voting rebellion. This whispering campaign is just the latest manoeuvre imo, although coming supposedly from the far left of the party is a bit of a novelty.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yes, losing PMQs to Corbyn is as shameful as losing a war to France.

    Just imagine in the debates of 2020, someone like Sir Keir, or Hillary Benn could destroy Theresa May.

    She would not have to agree to them . Would follow Cameron's precedent there.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    First item on WatO Surrey. Not good for Cons.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    AndyJS said:

    Maybe Theresa May will reconsider calling an election this year if the reports about Corbyn standing down before 2020 are true.

    But how does she circumvent the Fixed Termed Parliament Act?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yes, losing PMQs to Corbyn is as shameful as losing a war to France.

    Just imagine in the debates of 2020, someone like Sir Keir, or Hillary Benn could destroy Theresa May.

    She would not have to agree to them . Would follow Cameron's precedent there.
    Dave still took part in the debates.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    FPT: Mr. Animal, I was completely unaware of that!

    The ring-tailed lemur has total female dominance. The African hunting dog (which has the best kill rate of any predator) is unusual because the males stay and the females roam, contrary to the norm. Those (and the male seahorse giving birth) are the oddest gender things I know of animals (well, until you told me of female hyenas).
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2017
    The problem for Labour is that getting rid of Corbyn won't solve the problem of what they stand for and whether they want to compromise with the electorate.

    In any case, there's no leader so bad that you can't find someone worse. Admittedly, it's a tough challenge to find someone worse than Corbyn, but the fact that Rebecca Long-Bailey is being mooted suggests that it's a challenge which Labour intends to take on.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    TOPPING said:

    First item on WatO Surrey. Not good for Cons.

    I Blame JohnO.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,724
    "The New Statesman’s brilliant Stephen Bush has a wry sense of humour, so it is occasionally difficult to know beyond doubt whether or not he is joking. When this week in print he tipped someone called Rebecca Long-Bailey as the likely next leader of the British Labour party I assumed initially that it was a spoof and that no such person exists. But I was wrong. Apparently the Corbynite Ms Long-Bailey is shadow chief secretary to the Treasury in the shadow cabinet. Well, there you go."
    https://reaction.life/can-labour-party-saved-britain-changed-much/
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jimwaterson: Called Surrey council David Hodge to ask if he's aware his texts had been read out at PMQs. "No I’m not, I’m on the other line." *line dead*

    Somebody got through...

    @SkyNewsBreak: Surrey County Council leader has insisted the decision to scrap 15% council tax rise "was ours alone & there has been no deal" with the Govt
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yes, losing PMQs to Corbyn is as shameful as losing a war to France.

    Just imagine in the debates of 2020, someone like Sir Keir, or Hillary Benn could destroy Theresa May.

    Jon Ashworth and Harriet Harman have both been on manoeuvres. He has union backing, she has the sisterhood.

    I am well covered on both but HH is a proven parliamentary performer, and Ashworth an effective organiser.
    But HH is to blame for Corbyn becoming leader in 2015! I am sure MPs know that and will not forgive her ineptitude as Acting Leader.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992
    TOPPING said:

    First item on WatO Surrey. Not good for Cons.

    Will be very important IF a smoking gun is found. With the Nissan deal, a pattern could be said to be emerging.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yes, losing PMQs to Corbyn is as shameful as losing a war to France.

    Just imagine in the debates of 2020, someone like Sir Keir, or Hillary Benn could destroy Theresa May.

    She would not have to agree to them . Would follow Cameron's precedent there.
    Dave still took part in the debates.
    Only a single debate in 2015.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: Corbyn spokesman says he is "confident" Shadow Cabinet members will vote for A50 tonight. On Diane Abbott, he says: "She's now better".
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,031
    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT: Mr. Animal, I was completely unaware of that!

    The ring-tailed lemur has total female dominance. The African hunting dog (which has the best kill rate of any predator) is unusual because the males stay and the females roam, contrary to the norm. Those (and the male seahorse giving birth) are the oddest gender things I know of animals (well, until you told me of female hyenas).

    Paddy Ashdown was the only trained killer in the Commons. Mrs Thatcher was a natural.

    Or something like that.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,110
    Rebecca Long-Bailey's conference speech last year was a better stab at the citizenship point that May tried to make in her own address.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aegMjp37KXo
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It says a a lot about the current Labour party that holding two seats whilst they are in opposition is construed as some some of sort of victory.

    Off the top of my head, Romsey 2000 and Mitchin and Morden in 1982 are the two times the principal opposition have lost seats in by elections.

    Are there more in recent times?

    Glasgow Govan in November 1988 won by Jim Sillars.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,660
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Corbyn spokesman says he is "confident" Shadow Cabinet members will vote for A50 tonight. On Diane Abbott, he says: "She's now better".

    BBC News just showed Lewis saying he hasn't decided yet...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    OldKingCole said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT: Mr. Animal, I was completely unaware of that!

    The ring-tailed lemur has total female dominance. The African hunting dog (which has the best kill rate of any predator) is unusual because the males stay and the females roam, contrary to the norm. Those (and the male seahorse giving birth) are the oddest gender things I know of animals (well, until you told me of female hyenas).

    Paddy Ashdown was the only trained killer in the Commons. Mrs Thatcher was a natural.

    Or something like that.
    Charles Kennedy: Paddy Ashdown is the only party leader who’s a trained killer. Although, to be fair, Mrs Thatcher was self-taught.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    King Cole, an old line, but a good one.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,848
    Jezza's going nowehere. Why would he when he's so overwhelmingly popular?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    She is pretty hopeless. Not something that has really occured to many of us while Corbyn took our eyes off the ball. It would be interesting if she had to face a proper opposition leader
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    GIN1138 said:

    Jezza's going nowehere. Why would he when he's so overwhelmingly popular?

    And of course 21st Century Socialism is sweeping the nation....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    On topic, I was also doing a thread on Miss Long-Bailey.

    I found some doozies about her.

    She said she wouldn't be surprised if MI5 were behind plots to topple Corbyn and she also said if she became Chancellor 'God help the world if that happened'
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    TOPPING said:

    First item on WatO Surrey. Not good for Cons.

    Guido's got a copy of the messages. seems an awfully one sided conversation.
    https://order-order.com/2017/02/08/read-leaked-surrey-text-messages-full/
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    First item on WatO Surrey. Not good for Cons.

    Guido's got a copy of the messages. seems an awfully one sided conversation.
    https://order-order.com/2017/02/08/read-leaked-surrey-text-messages-full/
    https://twitter.com/nsoamesmp/status/829315938143072257
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,031
    edited February 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT: Mr. Animal, I was completely unaware of that!

    The ring-tailed lemur has total female dominance. The African hunting dog (which has the best kill rate of any predator) is unusual because the males stay and the females roam, contrary to the norm. Those (and the male seahorse giving birth) are the oddest gender things I know of animals (well, until you told me of female hyenas).

    Paddy Ashdown was the only trained killer in the Commons. Mrs Thatcher was a natural.

    Or something like that.
    Charles Kennedy: Paddy Ashdown is the only party leader who’s a trained killer. Although, to be fair, Mrs Thatcher was self-taught.
    Ah, how we miss Charles Kennedy

    Mr D, thanks.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    edited February 2017
    Government could really be in trouble if there's substance to these Surrey texts - huge scandal if there's clear evidence of additional funding due to being a Tory council.

    As for Long-Bailey, looks like Corbyn in a dress to me. The interviews I've seen of her make her look badly out of her depth. She's only been an MP for 18 months I think - very unfair to force her into such a complicated role rather than getting good experience as an MP first. They could do a lot worse than Harriet Harman though.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,724
    Tissue_Price said:

    "A general election in which Theresa May is fighting Keir Starmer, Hilary Benn, Clive Lewis, would be of a totally different magnitude than her facing Jeremy Corbyn."

    Ah, but what would be the membership's price?

    If Labour wishes to redefine as an anti-Brexit party - and there has to be a chance of that happening via a leadership contest - we should bear in mind that Leave won in about 430 seats.

    Yes, but we haven't seen the £350million/week for the NHS yet and we have seen the petrol price rise, still awaiting inflation rise.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    A lot of people seem to rate Starmer, I just don't see it. He is one of the least charismatic MPs in the HoC. Even Gordon Brown offered the occasional smile or warmth. Hilary Benn? That's laughable. Lewis seems to be an affable fellow, but I've not seen any evidence that he could be a competent leader. Granted, though, that any of them would be better than Corbyn, but any single MP (apart from maybe Diane Abbott) from Labour would be an immediate improvement.

    Who cares? Corbyn and Labour are utterly irrelevant.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,848
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jezza's going nowehere. Why would he when he's so overwhelmingly popular?

    And of course 21st Century Socialism is sweeping the nation....
    Well it's not sweeping the nation but it's sweeping the Labour Party.

    Jezza is overwhelmingly popular with his members and has won two landslide leadership elections "back to back".

    He's going nowhere. Why should he?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Jason said:

    A lot of people seem to rate Starmer, I just don't see it. He is one of the least charismatic MPs in the HoC. Even Gordon Brown offered the occasional smile or warmth. Hilary Benn? That's laughable. Lewis seems to be an affable fellow, but I've not seen any evidence that he could be a competent leader. Granted, though, that any of them would be better than Corbyn, but any single MP (apart from maybe Diane Abbott) from Labour would be an immediate improvement.

    Who cares? Corbyn and Labour are utterly irrelevant.

    The more I see of Starmer, the less trouble I have sleeping....
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892

    OT. A review on "Moorside" the extraordinary story of the disappearance of Shannon Matthews. About a community geographically not far from any of us but with as much in common as the man in the moon.

    (First episode on I player second episode next week)


    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/feb/08/the-moorside-review-sheridan-smith-finds-a-new-way-into-the-familiar-awful-shannon-matthews-story
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,031
    Jason said:

    A lot of people seem to rate Starmer, I just don't see it. He is one of the least charismatic MPs in the HoC. Even Gordon Brown offered the occasional smile or warmth. Hilary Benn? That's laughable. Lewis seems to be an affable fellow, but I've not seen any evidence that he could be a competent leader. Granted, though, that any of them would be better than Corbyn, but any single MP (apart from maybe Diane Abbott) from Labour would be an immediate improvement.

    Who cares? Corbyn and Labour are utterly irrelevant.

    Lewis is ex-Sandhurst. Admittedly as a Territorial, but he served in Afghanistan.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Tissue_Price said:

    "A general election in which Theresa May is fighting Keir Starmer, Hilary Benn, Clive Lewis, would be of a totally different magnitude than her facing Jeremy Corbyn."

    Ah, but what would be the membership's price?

    If Labour wishes to redefine as an anti-Brexit party - and there has to be a chance of that happening via a leadership contest - we should bear in mind that Leave won in about 430 seats.

    I wonder in how many seats Leave would be ahead on general election turnout levels. Fewer than 430, I'd imagine.

    If @AndyJS is around, could his arm be twisted to look at this (on a quick and dirty basis)?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    I now really hope that the Tories lose control of Surrey County Council this May. I don't care if that means the Lib Dems having more power, quite frankly the Tories (both in Westminster and in Kingston) have made a complete mess of the last few weeks. The rest of the country already has a low opinion of us (see Dr Fox's comments on this) and this will only make things worse. :(

    Here's what Robert Peston has found out:

    Hodge said he “swears on the bible there was no sweetheart deal”.

    But he concedes the texts he sent were supposed to go to Nick King, the special adviser to Sajid Javid.

    Instead they went - by mistake - to a Labour councillor, Hodge told me. He is furious because he feels that the honour code of members of the Local Government Association, that they don’t leak against each other, has been breached by the leaker ...

    Hodge told me he remains deeply concerned by what he described as the “crisis in social care” - which he says is a huge contributor to the shortage of beds in hospitals, with old people unable to leave hospitals because the money isn’t available to care for them outside.

    He says that the reason he called off the referendum is that he is persuaded the government is working on proposals that may put social care on a more sustainable footing.

    I think there is only one Labour councillor on SCC so it shouldn't be too difficult to work out who it is. Quite frankly Hodge should resign over this, utter incompetence.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    It requires someone with direct physical access to one of the mobile phones to leak text messages, does it not?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @tlg86 If ever you wanted an example that the Home Counties are not suffering from not having a devolved figurehead, this is it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    "A general election in which Theresa May is fighting Keir Starmer, Hilary Benn, Clive Lewis, would be of a totally different magnitude than her facing Jeremy Corbyn."

    Ah, but what would be the membership's price?

    If Labour wishes to redefine as an anti-Brexit party - and there has to be a chance of that happening via a leadership contest - we should bear in mind that Leave won in about 430 seats.

    I wonder in how many seats Leave would be ahead on general election turnout levels. Fewer than 430, I'd imagine.

    If @AndyJS is around, could his arm be twisted to look at this (on a quick and dirty basis)?
    EU referendum turnout was higher than for the general election
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Corbyn won both seats why would he step down any time soon? Of course the latest approval rating polling still shows May with a clear lead over Starmer too and if anything the most likely replacement for Corbyn at the moment is his ideological soulmate John McDonnell

    No one really knows who Starmer is though, and McDonnell would struggle to get nominated.

    The only way McDonnell - or anyone from the far left - will become Labour leader is if the nomination thresholds are changed by conference. A vote is due this year. If the plan is rejected, as is likely, then Corbyn will be the last far left leader Labour ever has.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It requires someone with direct physical access to one of the mobile phones to leak text messages, does it not?

    Believe they were sent to the wrong Nick. Not inspiring much confidence in the leader of Surrey CC.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2017
    OldKingCole said:

    Jason said:

    A lot of people seem to rate Starmer, I just don't see it. He is one of the least charismatic MPs in the HoC. Even Gordon Brown offered the occasional smile or warmth. Hilary Benn? That's laughable. Lewis seems to be an affable fellow, but I've not seen any evidence that he could be a competent leader. Granted, though, that any of them would be better than Corbyn, but any single MP (apart from maybe Diane Abbott) from Labour would be an immediate improvement.

    Who cares? Corbyn and Labour are utterly irrelevant.

    Lewis is ex-Sandhurst. Admittedly as a Territorial, but he served in Afghanistan.
    And sacked by the local bbc for being as thick as pig shit.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It requires someone with direct physical access to one of the mobile phones to leak text messages, does it not?

    No it. Is on an Apple device.

    I can access my texts on non mobile phones too.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    "A general election in which Theresa May is fighting Keir Starmer, Hilary Benn, Clive Lewis, would be of a totally different magnitude than her facing Jeremy Corbyn."

    Ah, but what would be the membership's price?

    If Labour wishes to redefine as an anti-Brexit party - and there has to be a chance of that happening via a leadership contest - we should bear in mind that Leave won in about 430 seats.

    I wonder in how many seats Leave would be ahead on general election turnout levels. Fewer than 430, I'd imagine.

    If @AndyJS is around, could his arm be twisted to look at this (on a quick and dirty basis)?
    EU referendum turnout was higher than for the general election
    Yes, that is my point.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/829306403210854401
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It requires someone with direct physical access to one of the mobile phones to leak text messages, does it not?

    No it. Is on an Apple device.

    I can access my texts on non mobile phones too.
    Oh, Apple. That explains it. Presumably he somehow forwarded the whole thread to the mystery 'Nick'.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    OldKingCole said:

    Jason said:

    A lot of people seem to rate Starmer, I just don't see it. He is one of the least charismatic MPs in the HoC. Even Gordon Brown offered the occasional smile or warmth. Hilary Benn? That's laughable. Lewis seems to be an affable fellow, but I've not seen any evidence that he could be a competent leader. Granted, though, that any of them would be better than Corbyn, but any single MP (apart from maybe Diane Abbott) from Labour would be an immediate improvement.

    Who cares? Corbyn and Labour are utterly irrelevant.

    Lewis is ex-Sandhurst. Admittedly as a Territorial, but he served in Afghanistan.
    So he knows the words to the National Anthem then. That already makes him vastly better than the incumbent.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    AlastairMeeks said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    "A general election in which Theresa May is fighting Keir Starmer, Hilary Benn, Clive Lewis, would be of a totally different magnitude than her facing Jeremy Corbyn."

    Ah, but what would be the membership's price?

    If Labour wishes to redefine as an anti-Brexit party - and there has to be a chance of that happening via a leadership contest - we should bear in mind that Leave won in about 430 seats.

    I wonder in how many seats Leave would be ahead on general election turnout levels. Fewer than 430, I'd imagine.

    If @AndyJS is around, could his arm be twisted to look at this (on a quick and dirty basis)?
    EU referendum turnout was higher than for the general election
    Yes, that is my point.
    If Labour tried to reverse Brexit turnout at the next general election would likely be about as high as EU ref
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    People should not be using txt messages to discuss such things, surely? Bizarre.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    tpfkar said:

    Government could really be in trouble if there's substance to these Surrey texts - huge scandal if there's clear evidence of additional funding due to being a Tory council.

    As for Long-Bailey, looks like Corbyn in a dress to me. The interviews I've seen of her make her look badly out of her depth. She's only been an MP for 18 months I think - very unfair to force her into such a complicated role rather than getting good experience as an MP first. They could do a lot worse than Harriet Harman though.

    Long experience in the HoC hasn't done Corbyn much good :grin:
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Mortimer said:

    People should not be using txt messages to discuss such things, surely? Bizarre.

    Nor should the tweet stuff that could be used against them, but people still do on a regular basis.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    h
    SouthamObserver said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Corbyn won both seats why would he step down any time soon? Of course the latest approval rating polling still shows May with a clear lead over Starmer too and if anything the most likely replacement for Corbyn at the moment is his ideological soulmate John McDonnell

    No one really knows who Starmer is though, and McDonnell would struggle to get nominated.

    The only way McDonnell - or anyone from the far left - will become Labour leader is if the nomination thresholds are changed by conference. A vote is due this year. If the plan is rejected, as is likely, then Corbyn will be the last far left leader Labour ever has.
    Over 40 MPs backed Corbyn when he was challenged last September
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,232
    Mortimer said:

    People should not be using txt messages to discuss such things, surely? Bizarre.

    You don't think 'such things' is the big problem here?

    Totally unbizarre.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mortimer said:

    People should not be using txt messages to discuss such things, surely? Bizarre.

    Well quite.

    Nowadays they should be setting up dedicated whatsapp groups.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    “Surrey’s decision not to proceed with a 15% council tax increase was ours alone and there has been no deal between Surrey County Council and the Government. However, I am confident that the Government now understands the real pressures in adult social care and the need for a lasting solution.”

    Hostage to fortune...
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2017
    Typos in article:
    Meyers ==> May
    pined ==> pained
    EDIT: also ratings ==> rating
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    You'll all understand that if I weren't crying, I'd be laughing. Loudly.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    AlastairMeeks said:

    @tlg86 If ever you wanted an example that the Home Counties are not suffering from not having a devolved figurehead, this is it.

    The problem is we don't know what, if any, deal has been done. As many pointed out at the time, the 15% figure seemed ridiculously high and did not seem serious. I still can't believe that they ever intended to have a referendum. Perhaps the strategy was to eek out more money from central government, but that's backfired quite spectacularly.

    But yes, you're right, everything is rosy in GU21.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Alan Simpson of writing duo Galton and Simpson has died at the age of 87, his manager has said.
    The pair created sitcoms including Hancock's Half Hour and Steptoe and Son.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941
    HYUFD said:

    h

    SouthamObserver said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Corbyn won both seats why would he step down any time soon? Of course the latest approval rating polling still shows May with a clear lead over Starmer too and if anything the most likely replacement for Corbyn at the moment is his ideological soulmate John McDonnell

    No one really knows who Starmer is though, and McDonnell would struggle to get nominated.

    The only way McDonnell - or anyone from the far left - will become Labour leader is if the nomination thresholds are changed by conference. A vote is due this year. If the plan is rejected, as is likely, then Corbyn will be the last far left leader Labour ever has.
    Over 40 MPs backed Corbyn when he was challenged last September

    No, they didn't, They just did not back a leadership contest.

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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Sandpit said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Jason said:

    A lot of people seem to rate Starmer, I just don't see it. He is one of the least charismatic MPs in the HoC. Even Gordon Brown offered the occasional smile or warmth. Hilary Benn? That's laughable. Lewis seems to be an affable fellow, but I've not seen any evidence that he could be a competent leader. Granted, though, that any of them would be better than Corbyn, but any single MP (apart from maybe Diane Abbott) from Labour would be an immediate improvement.

    Who cares? Corbyn and Labour are utterly irrelevant.

    Lewis is ex-Sandhurst. Admittedly as a Territorial, but he served in Afghanistan.
    So he knows the words to the National Anthem then. That already makes him vastly better than the incumbent.
    Corbyn knows the words, he just has trouble with 'God', 'Queen' and 'victorious'.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,660
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/829306403210854401

    David Hodge CBE - "Can't Bloody Email"
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Hang on, we're talking about *this* Rebecca Long-Bailey?
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=nGyIAqr9zBs
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    SouthamObserver said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Corbyn won both seats why would he step down any time soon? Of course the latest approval rating polling still shows May with a clear lead over Starmer too and if anything the most likely replacement for Corbyn at the moment is his ideological soulmate John McDonnell

    No one really knows who Starmer is though, and McDonnell would struggle to get nominated.

    The only way McDonnell - or anyone from the far left - will become Labour leader is if the nomination thresholds are changed by conference. A vote is due this year. If the plan is rejected, as is likely, then Corbyn will be the last far left leader Labour ever has.
    The other route is after a General Election, when the PLP composition might have changed due to losses and retirements / deselections.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992
    Anorak said:

    Typos in article:
    Meyers ==> May
    pined ==> pained
    EDIT: also ratings ==> rating

    Flowery for flurry?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It requires someone with direct physical access to one of the mobile phones to leak text messages, does it not?

    No it. Is on an Apple device.

    I can access my texts on non mobile phones too.
    Oh, Apple. That explains it. Presumably he somehow forwarded the whole thread to the mystery 'Nick'.
    *A friend* who was divorced recently said sharing an apple ID on their iPhones/iPads with his wife was the biggest mistake of that marriage.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Mortimer said:

    People should not be using txt messages to discuss such things, surely? Bizarre.

    It's a mistake even quite clever people make. I thought Creases Huhne had a real chance of beating the points rap, and then he gets convicted largely on the basis of his own txts to his bolshy son. And it's amazing how often in murder trials the victim is killed by substance X and the accused has been googling "Substance X lethal dose" in the months before the killing.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Anorak said:

    Typos in article:
    Meyers ==> May
    pined ==> pained
    EDIT: also ratings ==> rating

    Also:
    flowey ==> flurry
    Close ==> close
    Even ==> even
    JC's ==> JC
    he planned exit data ==> his planned exit date
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    JohnO said:

    You'll all understand that if I weren't crying, I'd be laughing. Loudly.

    Could be worse, you could have been the one sending the text messages.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    dixiedean said:

    Anorak said:

    Typos in article:
    Meyers ==> May
    pined ==> pained
    EDIT: also ratings ==> rating

    Flowery for flurry?
    OGH appears to have been in a bit of a rush with this one :)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    Anyone know what time tonight's vote is so I know what time I might be needed to write a thread.

    Diane Abbott is ruining my social life.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It requires someone with direct physical access to one of the mobile phones to leak text messages, does it not?

    No it. Is on an Apple device.

    I can access my texts on non mobile phones too.
    Oh, Apple. That explains it. Presumably he somehow forwarded the whole thread to the mystery 'Nick'.
    *A friend* who was divorced recently said sharing an apple ID on their iPhones/iPads with his wife was the biggest mistake of that marriage.
    Is that the same friend who had a dilemma about a mobile phone a couple of evenings ago?
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    OldKingCole said:

    Jason said:

    A lot of people seem to rate Starmer, I just don't see it. He is one of the least charismatic MPs in the HoC. Even Gordon Brown offered the occasional smile or warmth. Hilary Benn? That's laughable. Lewis seems to be an affable fellow, but I've not seen any evidence that he could be a competent leader. Granted, though, that any of them would be better than Corbyn, but any single MP (apart from maybe Diane Abbott) from Labour would be an immediate improvement.

    Who cares? Corbyn and Labour are utterly irrelevant.

    Lewis is ex-Sandhurst. Admittedly as a Territorial, but he served in Afghanistan.
    That's very admirable. Doesn't make him a political leader, though. Of course, in today's world of identity politics, he does have that advantage.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    Anorak said:

    dixiedean said:

    Anorak said:

    Typos in article:
    Meyers ==> May
    pined ==> pained
    EDIT: also ratings ==> rating

    Flowery for flurry?
    OGH appears to have been in a bit of a rush with this one :)
    He's still poorly, and auto-correct is the bane of threads.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Mortimer said:

    People should not be using txt messages to discuss such things, surely? Bizarre.

    Not the first politician to have something he thought was private get made public, and won't be the last either. He should have double checked the recipient with a call before sending anything politically sensitive.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JohnO said:

    You'll all understand that if I weren't crying, I'd be laughing. Loudly.

    Could be worse, you could have been the one sending the text messages.
    What are these "text" messages of which you speak?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JohnO said:

    You'll all understand that if I weren't crying, I'd be laughing. Loudly.

    It must be very difficult for you when your friends and/or colleagues are involved.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    "A general election in which Theresa May is fighting Keir Starmer, Hilary Benn, Clive Lewis, would be of a totally different magnitude than her facing Jeremy Corbyn."

    Ah, but what would be the membership's price?

    If Labour wishes to redefine as an anti-Brexit party - and there has to be a chance of that happening via a leadership contest - we should bear in mind that Leave won in about 430 seats.

    I wonder in how many seats Leave would be ahead on general election turnout levels. Fewer than 430, I'd imagine.

    If @AndyJS is around, could his arm be twisted to look at this (on a quick and dirty basis)?
    The referendum turnout (72.2%) was quite similar to a GE (66.4% in 2015). I'm sure it would be possible to model the seats by demographic and the relative turnouts of the two polls to try to simulate what would have happened if you drop the turnout by 5.8% but I doubt it'd make much difference.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone know what time tonight's vote is so I know what time I might be needed to write a thread.

    Diane Abbott is ruining my social life.

    8pm
    Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/08/brexit-debate-vote-live-theresa-may-pmqs/
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,539
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It requires someone with direct physical access to one of the mobile phones to leak text messages, does it not?

    No it. Is on an Apple device.

    I can access my texts on non mobile phones too.
    Oh, Apple. That explains it. Presumably he somehow forwarded the whole thread to the mystery 'Nick'.
    *A friend* who was divorced recently said sharing an apple ID on their iPhones/iPads with his wife was the biggest mistake of that marriage.
    Is that the same friend who had a dilemma about a mobile phone a couple of evenings ago?
    Yes, basically, at one point, any friend who sent me a message from their iPhone or iPad, said messages were also going to my wife's iPhone as well as my phone.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    Tissue_Price said:

    JohnO said:

    You'll all understand that if I weren't crying, I'd be laughing. Loudly.

    It must be very difficult for you when your friends and/or colleagues are involved.
    Yes, seriously, I have known David Hodge well for many years and he is a thoroughly good egg.
This discussion has been closed.