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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The enthusiasm gap that spells doom for Corbyn and Labour

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    On Trump leadership style:

    https://www.ft.com/content/f168807e-e8a8-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

    As with Corbyn, the 'authentic' leader has difficulty adapting - though one of the commentators falls for the Thatcher 'iron lady' myth - you don't survive over a decade by being inflexible....
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    Labour's problem isn't JC. It's the fact that its selectorate thought that he would make a good leader. The Tories will be able to use that to win the next election - and the one after that, too.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    edited February 2017
    Mine (and possibly Sunil's) dream of May appearing before the EU Council in hologramatic form to execute order 66 article 50 just got one step closer to reality... :D

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38875197
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    edited February 2017
    fitalass said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. So it seems that the Great American kickball thingy might actually be worth watching this year. The one hour version, anyway.

    Lady Gaga was good... But as for the overlong game of American footie, lets just say that the Atlanta Falcons just become honoury members of many a Scotland team....
    Gaga can usually be relied on for a good performance. The story of the match sounds familiar to those who remember Liverpool in 2005 or Man United in 1999. Should definitely be worth a watch later for those of us who live in about the worst possible time zone to have watched it live.
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    Labour's problem isn't JC. It's the fact that its selectorate thought that he would make a good leader. The Tories will be able to use that to win the next election - and the one after that, too.

    That selectorate is epitmoised by McCluskey who supported: Brown, Miliband and JC. My rule of thumb: McCluskey selects Leaders HE likes so they are bound to be inimical to teh mass electorate.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Lyon today: Le Pen addressed 1,400 at the launch of her candidacy. On the other side of town, Macron had a crowd of 8,000.

    I'd have thought she'd have had more luck in blue collar Saint Etienne.
    The Macron insurgency is extraordinary. The Front National has 84,000 members. En Marche has 175,000 - all gotten in a few months. He's pulling in extraordinary crowds at his rallies.

    But I don't really get why. He's a slightly younger Tony Blair. An ex-Rothschild banker, who served under the most unpopular French President in history.
    Member =/= voters...
    And crowds != enthusiasm, etc., etc. (Although I think I distantly recall a US candidate recently where crowd sizes did flow into votes...)

    But these are astonishing numbers for a centrist who formed his own party just a few months ago.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    RobD said:

    It's moments like these that remind me of this great Mitchell & Webb sketch...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VF_uOgyBK1c

    :D

    Take a look at the BetVita ad before the sketch. It's brilliant......
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rkrkrk said:

    @MyBurningEars I think I saw an analysis which suggested the American people tend on average to choose the presidential candidate with the least impressive military record.

    So Obama over McCain, GW over Kerry, Clinton over GHBush, Reagan over Carter... Etc.

    Bush over Dukakis?

    :wink:
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Lyon today: Le Pen addressed 1,400 at the launch of her candidacy. On the other side of town, Macron had a crowd of 8,000.

    I'd have thought she'd have had more luck in blue collar Saint Etienne.
    The Macron insurgency is extraordinary. The Front National has 84,000 members. En Marche has 175,000 - all gotten in a few months. He's pulling in extraordinary crowds at his rallies.

    But I don't really get why. He's a slightly younger Tony Blair. An ex-Rothschild banker, who served under the most unpopular French President in history.
    More Cleggmania than Blair 1997 if you ask me, though I think he could be President I think he is 5 years' too early, the mood is not for a centrist, liberal Europhile at the moment and I still think Fillon will scrape past him to face Le Pen in the runoff helped by the pensioner vote
    The French election is very fluid: there's only about 3% between Hamon, Fillon and Macron. I suspect you are right that Fillon will edge past Macron - although I think you dismiss Macron too easily. Clegg was - if we are going to be frank about this - telegenic, but an empty suit. There was nothing in Clegg's history that would suggest he'd be a good leader: he'd made no great success of anything he'd done. Macron, on the other hand, has a pretty good CV for a 39 year-old.
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    “CAN anyone work this thing?” Paul Nuttall barks, jabbing the touch screen. He rues the day his aides talked him into travelling by self-driving car. “It will make you look prime ministerial,” they said. Bollocks. It just makes him look like a hypocrite after all those speeches about the evils of job-killing robots. This robot just drove him from London to Stoke without crashing—is functioning air-conditioning too much to ask? It is an unusually hot April day. Mr Nuttall grimaces as he spots his signature tweed jacket and flat cap on the seat next to him; shortly he will have to put them on for a photo with constituents.

    Or perhaps his perspiration is just nerves. For the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), and now leader of the opposition, has much to be nervous about. The 2030 election is weeks away.


    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716043-dispatch-2030-how-slow-death-labour-might-happen?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/howtheslowdeathoflabourmighthappen
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    daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    “CAN anyone work this thing?” Paul Nuttall barks, jabbing the touch screen. He rues the day his aides talked him into travelling by self-driving car. “It will make you look prime ministerial,” they said. Bollocks. It just makes him look like a hypocrite after all those speeches about the evils of job-killing robots. This robot just drove him from London to Stoke without crashing—is functioning air-conditioning too much to ask? It is an unusually hot April day. Mr Nuttall grimaces as he spots his signature tweed jacket and flat cap on the seat next to him; shortly he will have to put them on for a photo with constituents.

    Or perhaps his perspiration is just nerves. For the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), and now leader of the opposition, has much to be nervous about. The 2030 election is weeks away.


    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716043-dispatch-2030-how-slow-death-labour-might-happen?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/howtheslowdeathoflabourmighthappen

    The end of Nuttall's political career will start on 24th Feb 2017. IMO, UKIP will be well behind Labour in the Stoke Central by-election. The bigger risk for Labour is the Copeland by-election. UKIP are an incompetent Dad's Army, with little rationale once A50 is invoked.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited February 2017
    Shows the tactical ineptitude of Corbyn. When miraculously he finds himself on the same wavelength as over 70% of Labour voters he does a volte face. The man who put the LESS into USE..LESS.
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    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Lyon today: Le Pen addressed 1,400 at the launch of her candidacy. On the other side of town, Macron had a crowd of 8,000.

    I'd have thought she'd have had more luck in blue collar Saint Etienne.
    The Macron insurgency is extraordinary. The Front National has 84,000 members. En Marche has 175,000 - all gotten in a few months. He's pulling in extraordinary crowds at his rallies.

    But I don't really get why. He's a slightly younger Tony Blair. An ex-Rothschild banker, who served under the most unpopular French President in history.
    More Cleggmania than Blair 1997 if you ask me, though I think he could be President I think he is 5 years' too early, the mood is not for a centrist, liberal Europhile at the moment and I still think Fillon will scrape past him to face Le Pen in the runoff helped by the pensioner vote
    The French election is very fluid: there's only about 3% between Hamon, Fillon and Macron. I suspect you are right that Fillon will edge past Macron - although I think you dismiss Macron too easily. Clegg was - if we are going to be frank about this - telegenic, but an empty suit. There was nothing in Clegg's history that would suggest he'd be a good leader: he'd made no great success of anything he'd done. Macron, on the other hand, has a pretty good CV for a 39 year-old.
    You think Fillon will be able to weather the storm and stay in the race?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Lyon today: Le Pen addressed 1,400 at the launch of her candidacy. On the other side of town, Macron had a crowd of 8,000.

    I'd have thought she'd have had more luck in blue collar Saint Etienne.
    The Macron insurgency is extraordinary. The Front National has 84,000 members. En Marche has 175,000 - all gotten in a few months. He's pulling in extraordinary crowds at his rallies.

    But I don't really get why. He's a slightly younger Tony Blair. An ex-Rothschild banker, who served under the most unpopular French President in history.
    More Cleggmania than Blair 1997 if you ask me, though I think he could be President I think he is 5 years' too early, the mood is not for a centrist, liberal Europhile at the moment and I still think Fillon will scrape past him to face Le Pen in the runoff helped by the pensioner vote
    The French election is very fluid: there's only about 3% between Hamon, Fillon and Macron. I suspect you are right that Fillon will edge past Macron - although I think you dismiss Macron too easily. Clegg was - if we are going to be frank about this - telegenic, but an empty suit. There was nothing in Clegg's history that would suggest he'd be a good leader: he'd made no great success of anything he'd done. Macron, on the other hand, has a pretty good CV for a 39 year-old.
    You think Fillon will be able to weather the storm and stay in the race?
    I think it's more likely than not. (Assuming nothing new comes out, of course.)
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    For some very funny probability comparisons with the election, Nate_Cohn is superb
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    daodao said:

    “CAN anyone work this thing?” Paul Nuttall barks, jabbing the touch screen. He rues the day his aides talked him into travelling by self-driving car. “It will make you look prime ministerial,” they said. Bollocks. It just makes him look like a hypocrite after all those speeches about the evils of job-killing robots. This robot just drove him from London to Stoke without crashing—is functioning air-conditioning too much to ask? It is an unusually hot April day. Mr Nuttall grimaces as he spots his signature tweed jacket and flat cap on the seat next to him; shortly he will have to put them on for a photo with constituents.

    Or perhaps his perspiration is just nerves. For the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), and now leader of the opposition, has much to be nervous about. The 2030 election is weeks away.


    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716043-dispatch-2030-how-slow-death-labour-might-happen?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/howtheslowdeathoflabourmighthappen

    The end of Nuttall's political career will start on 24th Feb 2017.
    I agree - I doubt Nuttall will win Stoke - and if not him there now, who, where when?

    I think the Bregret is still strong in The Economist (not least because many of their predictions of catastrophe have yet to come true). Labour is a strong brand and will ultimately recover, and I doubt May will be in office in 2029 either....
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    The vote of the membership to keep Corbyn in place all so recently is looking increasingly bizarre as even the faithful lose faith. In the last local elections Labour did better than expected, actually making modest gains against their polling. Corbyn is going to need the same again. If current polling or Kieran's "enthusiasm gap" is reflected in the results the pressure on him to stand down will be immense.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
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    Labour's problem isn't JC. It's the fact that its selectorate thought that he would make a good leader. The Tories will be able to use that to win the next election - and the one after that, too.

    That selectorate is epitmoised by McCluskey who supported: Brown, Miliband and JC. My rule of thumb: McCluskey selects Leaders HE likes so they are bound to be inimical to teh mass electorate.

    True enough, but there's more. The average voter asks "what's in it for me" - the typical Labour activist feels ashamed to own that emotion - so the rest of the electorate wishes there weren't any Labour voters. Neither personalities or policies have any effect upon this emotional base.

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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Works out to be a bit under £500/hour.
    Is that unreasonable for a QC?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,008
    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Strange article for one reason in particular. All the way through Sir Keith Starmer is described as ‘Sir Starmer”.
    AFAIK its either 'Sir Keith Starmer’ or 'Sir Keith’.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Works out to be a bit under £500/hour.
    Is that unreasonable for a QC?
    I've a slight qualm about a shadow minister charging for work that falls within his brief, but the rate usnt unreasonable
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Works out to be a bit under £500/hour.
    Is that unreasonable for a QC?
    That is not the outrageous part.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited February 2017
    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Works out to be a bit under £500/hour.
    Is that unreasonable for a QC?
    I've a slight qualm about a shadow minister charging for work that falls within his brief, but the rate usnt unreasonable
    He did the work in Dec 2015.

    He was a backbencher at the time wasn't he?
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    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting to see the polling detail, Mr. Pedley. So, what you appear to be saying, in shorthand, is that Corbyn = Alderaan and May = the Death Star?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Labour ground game in Copeland looksstrong.

    https://twitter.com/BarbaraACannon/status/828383753433124864
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited February 2017

    Labour ground game in Copeland looksstrong.

    ht://twitter.com/BarbaraACannon/status/828383753433124864

    They'll be fine. Amazing what the fear of losing can do to give a shot in the arm to the wavering. Harder to sit out in practice even if one felt prepared to do so in theory.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017

    I agree - I doubt Nuttall will win Stoke - and if not him there now, who, where when?

    I think the Bregret is still strong in The Economist (not least because many of their predictions of catastrophe have yet to come true). Labour is a strong brand and will ultimately recover, and I doubt May will be in office in 2029 either....

    I dont think Nuttal and the Kippers are going anywhere while BrExit seems to be firmish and on track. If Article 50 starts getting delayed from legal tomfoolery or chicanery in the HoL, and the narrative that the elite are trying to "steal" the referendum result from the people starts to have currency then the UKIP message will start to resonate with the public again. If the end result is really EEA with a job offer then UKIP will be back on full song and probably over 20% in the polls.

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Pong,

    "An outragous comment indeed."

    With absolutely no authority whatsoever, I bestow upon you the title of "Snowflake of the day."

    In the lexicon of Tory MPs' comments, this is negligible.

    Google Gerald Nabarro. On second thoughts, better not, your head might explode.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,327
    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Davies is a on known loose cannon
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    The front page of the FT doesn't seem to be getting much of a pb airing.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Works out to be a bit under £500/hour.
    Is that unreasonable for a QC?
    That is not the outrageous part.
    What is the outrageous bit?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Works out to be a bit under £500/hour.
    Is that unreasonable for a QC?
    I've a slight qualm about a shadow minister charging for work that falls within his brief, but the rate usnt unreasonable
    He did the work in Dec 2015.

    He was a backbencher at the time wasn't he?
    Didn't see the date. If he was a backbencher & it was all properly disclosed then there's no issue.
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    I agree - I doubt Nuttall will win Stoke - and if not him there now, who, where when?

    I think the Bregret is still strong in The Economist (not least because many of their predictions of catastrophe have yet to come true). Labour is a strong brand and will ultimately recover, and I doubt May will be in office in 2029 either....

    I dont think Nuttal and the Kippers are going anywhere while BrExit seems to be firmish and on track. If Article 50 starts getting delayed from legal tomfoolery or chicanery in the HoL, and the narrative that the elite are trying to "steal" the referendum result from the people starts to have currency then the UKIP message will start to resonate with the public again. If the end result is really EEA with a job offer then UKIP will be back on full song and probably over 20% in the polls.

    ... and able to add to their 100 plus MPs.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    CD13 said:

    Mr Pong,

    "An outragous comment indeed."

    With absolutely no authority whatsoever, I bestow upon you the title of "Snowflake of the day."

    In the lexicon of Tory MPs' comments, this is negligible.

    Barking up the wrong tree re snow flakiness. But no matter how much one defends the right to say offensive or outrageous things, hob forbid you have an opinion that someone did say some thing outrageous.

    Personally I think contenders for snowflake awards must not only be outraged by commentary they need to be trying to stop others saying things, since the whole point is they are fragile and in need of protection from bad words.

    Merely criticising the words of others is not on the same level, that's merely reacting, even if you feel it is overreacting.
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    The front page of the FT doesn't seem to be getting much of a pb airing.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/828358442066780162
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    Labour ground game in Copeland looksstrong.

    https://twitter.com/BarbaraACannon/status/828383753433124864

    CCHQ is phoning every evening in Copeland now and co ordinating with the volunteers on the ground it will be close
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Lyon today: Le Pen addressed 1,400 at the launch of her candidacy. On the other side of town, Macron had a crowd of 8,000.

    I'd have thought she'd have had more luck in blue collar Saint Etienne.
    The Macron insurgency is extraordinary. The Front National has 84,000 members. En Marche has 175,000 - all gotten in a few months. He's pulling in extraordinary crowds at his rallies.

    But I don't really get why. He's a slightly younger Tony Blair. An ex-Rothschild banker, who served under the most unpopular French President in history.
    Member =/= voters...
    And crowds != enthusiasm, etc., etc. (Although I think I distantly recall a US candidate recently where crowd sizes did flow into votes...)

    But these are astonishing numbers for a centrist who formed his own party just a few months ago.
    It is Cleggmania more than anything else however Fillon's older voters are more likely to turnout to vote than Macron's younger ones
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    kl4,

    "even if you feel it is overreacting."

    Surely overreacting is the epitome of snowflakery? Anyway, it's early in the day, so I'm sure it will be overtaken.

    Can I take offence at your measured reply? That should put me in the lead.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Lyon today: Le Pen addressed 1,400 at the launch of her candidacy. On the other side of town, Macron had a crowd of 8,000.

    I'd have thought she'd have had more luck in blue collar Saint Etienne.
    The Macron insurgency is extraordinary. The Front National has 84,000 members. En Marche has 175,000 - all gotten in a few months. He's pulling in extraordinary crowds at his rallies.

    But I don't really get why. He's a slightly younger Tony Blair. An ex-Rothschild banker, who served under the most unpopular French President in history.
    More Cleggmania than Blair 1997 if you ask me, though I think he could be President I think he is 5 years' too early, the mood is not for a centrist, liberal Europhile at the moment and I still think Fillon will scrape past him to face Le Pen in the runoff helped by the pensioner vote
    The French election is very fluid: there's only about 3% between Hamon, Fillon and Macron. I suspect you are right that Fillon will edge past Macron - although I think you dismiss Macron too easily. Clegg was - if we are going to be frank about this - telegenic, but an empty suit. There was nothing in Clegg's history that would suggest he'd be a good leader: he'd made no great success of anything he'd done. Macron, on the other hand, has a pretty good CV for a 39 year-old.
    I still think 2022 is more likely for him than 2017
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Works out to be a bit under £500/hour.
    Is that unreasonable for a QC?
    That is not the outrageous part.
    What is the outrageous bit?
    That the MP is a tosser who would flippantly suggest Gibraltar bugger off to Spain in reaction to the story. Flippant, probably not literal, and he can say what the hell he likes. But I am presumably free to think even non literally that is an uncalled for reaction.

    I'm happy to substitute stupid for outrageous, as the reverse snowflake bus is coming into the station (where people act appalled at the snowflake sensitivity of others while displaying hyper sensitivity, overreaction and mischaracterisation to sustain their own outrage themselves) and I cannot rebut that nonsense right now (time wise).

    Good day.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    kle4 said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Pong,

    "An outragous comment indeed."

    With absolutely no authority whatsoever, I bestow upon you the title of "Snowflake of the day."

    In the lexicon of Tory MPs' comments, this is negligible.

    Barking up the wrong tree re snow flakiness. But no matter how much one defends the right to say offensive or outrageous things, hob forbid you have an opinion that someone did say some thing outrageous.

    Personally I think contenders for snowflake awards must not only be outraged by commentary they need to be trying to stop others saying things, since the whole point is they are fragile and in need of protection from bad words.

    Merely criticising the words of others is not on the same level, that's merely reacting, even if you feel it is overreacting.
    I don't disagree... But if you adopt that definition of a snowflake I think you will find there aren't actually that many around.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    The front page of the FT doesn't seem to be getting much of a pb airing.

    htps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/828358442066780162
    "Brexit already having negative effect, say top business leaders
    Half of survey respondents pessimistic while May faces rebellion over Article 50 bill."

    may be the headline referred to. The editors seem to have come to the very reasonable view that this story is too unnewsworthy to make the front of paper edition.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Works out to be a bit under £500/hour.
    Is that unreasonable for a QC?
    That is not the outrageous part.
    What is the outrageous bit?
    That the MP is a tosser who would flippantly suggest Gibraltar bugger off to Spain in reaction to the story. Flippant, probably not literal, and he can say what the hell he likes. But I am presumably free to think even non literally that is an uncalled for reaction.

    I'm happy to substitute stupid for outrageous, as the reverse snowflake bus is coming into the station (where people act appalled at the snowflake sensitivity of others while displaying hyper sensitivity, overreaction and mischaracterisation to sustain their own outrage themselves) and I cannot rebut that nonsense right now (time wise).

    Good day.
    That's why I asked.... I misunderstood and thought you meant Starter was being outrageous for giving Gibraltar advice on Brexit.

    I agree on David Davies.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    The front page of the FT doesn't seem to be getting much of a pb airing.

    htps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/828358442066780162
    "Brexit already having negative effect, say top business leaders
    Half of survey respondents pessimistic while May faces rebellion over Article 50 bill."

    may be the headline referred to. The editors seem to have come to the very reasonable view that this story is too unnewsworthy to make the front of paper edition.
    The original story does appear to have been dropped rather quickly. Also regulars PBers should know by now that a front page that is 12hrs old would be on the previous thread.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Unless it is this:

    "Britain’s courgettes and lettuces will soon return
    An appreciation of international trade should accompany seeing greens back on shelf"

    I can't get through the paywall to see this, but I assume the message is Brexit -> no more out of season lettuce, which is odd as the shortage was weather-driven.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,327
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The front page of the FT doesn't seem to be getting much of a pb airing.

    htps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/828358442066780162
    "Brexit already having negative effect, say top business leaders
    Half of survey respondents pessimistic while May faces rebellion over Article 50 bill."

    may be the headline referred to. The editors seem to have come to the very reasonable view that this story is too unnewsworthy to make the front of paper edition.
    Good call I'd have buried it also
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The front page of the FT doesn't seem to be getting much of a pb airing.

    htps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/828358442066780162
    "Brexit already having negative effect, say top business leaders
    Half of survey respondents pessimistic while May faces rebellion over Article 50 bill."

    may be the headline referred to. The editors seem to have come to the very reasonable view that this story is too unnewsworthy to make the front of paper edition.
    Top business leaders were overwhelmingly for Remain, their workers and small businessmen rather less so
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited February 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Unless it is this:

    "Britain’s courgettes and lettuces will soon return
    An appreciation of international trade should accompany seeing greens back on shelf"

    I can't get through the paywall to see this, but I assume the message is Brexit -> no more out of season lettuce, which is odd as the shortage was weather-driven.

    Weather IN EUROPE. I assume if we go hard Brexit we can import food more freely from wherever - thus increasing security of food supply.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,293
    Labour's problem goes much wider and deeper than Corbyn, who at least has the advantage of offering something different and apparently genuine, that has the support of most Labour members. It is a nonsense to think they would be any better off under Owen Smith or Argclu.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Patrick said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Unless it is this:

    "Britain’s courgettes and lettuces will soon return
    An appreciation of international trade should accompany seeing greens back on shelf"

    I can't get through the paywall to see this, but I assume the message is Brexit -> no more out of season lettuce, which is odd as the shortage was weather-driven.

    Weather IN EUROPE. I assume if we go hard Brexit we can import food from wherever - thus increasing security of food supply.
    Precisely. And you only have to look at the names for this stuff - courgette, zucchini - to see that it has no place on the Englishman's table. Turnips for us.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    The front page of the FT doesn't seem to be getting much of a pb airing.

    Yes, the piece about Chinese capital controls and its implications for exchange rates are globally significant.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    The front page of the FT doesn't seem to be getting much of a pb airing.

    htps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/828358442066780162
    "Brexit already having negative effect, say top business leaders
    Half of survey respondents pessimistic while May faces rebellion over Article 50 bill."

    may be the headline referred to. The editors seem to have come to the very reasonable view that this story is too unnewsworthy to make the front of paper edition.

    The interesting piece is surely the strong performance of the Eurozone, confirmed by the recent PMIs. With the UK's biggest export market performing more strongly than expected, lots of private borrowing and a beneficial exchange rate, no wonder the UK economy is performing above expectation.

  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    I agree - I doubt Nuttall will win Stoke - and if not him there now, who, where when?

    I think the Bregret is still strong in The Economist (not least because many of their predictions of catastrophe have yet to come true). Labour is a strong brand and will ultimately recover, and I doubt May will be in office in 2029 either....

    I dont think Nuttal and the Kippers are going anywhere while BrExit seems to be firmish and on track. If Article 50 starts getting delayed from legal tomfoolery or chicanery in the HoL, and the narrative that the elite are trying to "steal" the referendum result from the people starts to have currency then the UKIP message will start to resonate with the public again. If the end result is really EEA with a job offer then UKIP will be back on full song and probably over 20% in the polls.

    I'm sure you're right. It's time for them to change their USP and forget the EU and become an out and out racist/nationalist Party. Huge constituency for one just looking for a home.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Patrick said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Unless it is this:

    "Britain’s courgettes and lettuces will soon return
    An appreciation of international trade should accompany seeing greens back on shelf"

    I can't get through the paywall to see this, but I assume the message is Brexit -> no more out of season lettuce, which is odd as the shortage was weather-driven.

    Weather IN EUROPE. I assume if we go hard Brexit we can import food from wherever - thus increasing security of food supply.
    Precisely. And you only have to look at the names for this stuff - courgette, zucchini - to see that it has no place on the Englishman's table. Turnips for us.
    Funny, I thought courgette and zucchini were the same thing!
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    matt said:

    The front page of the FT doesn't seem to be getting much of a pb airing.

    Yes, the piece about Chinese capital controls and its implications for exchange rates are globally significant.
    explain pls
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:

    The front page of the FT doesn't seem to be getting much of a pb airing.

    Yes, the piece about Chinese capital controls and its implications for exchange rates are globally significant.
    explain pls
    It's intended to stop the slide in RMB (and has done). As this goes to the US argument around undervalued currencies this has a direct feed in to that conversation

    It's been in place and having an appreciable impact since November so odd that journalists have only picked up on it now.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Blue_rog said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Patrick said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Unless it is this:

    "Britain’s courgettes and lettuces will soon return
    An appreciation of international trade should accompany seeing greens back on shelf"

    I can't get through the paywall to see this, but I assume the message is Brexit -> no more out of season lettuce, which is odd as the shortage was weather-driven.

    Weather IN EUROPE. I assume if we go hard Brexit we can import food from wherever - thus increasing security of food supply.
    Precisely. And you only have to look at the names for this stuff - courgette, zucchini - to see that it has no place on the Englishman's table. Turnips for us.
    Funny, I thought courgette and zucchini were the same thing!
    They are.
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    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209
  • Options

    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    Another idiot who thinks that trade with the EU will just stop because we leave.
  • Options
    It's still astonishing to me that any Tory leader beats any Labour leader on the "in touch" question.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Patrick said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Unless it is this:

    "Britain’s courgettes and lettuces will soon return
    An appreciation of international trade should accompany seeing greens back on shelf"

    I can't get through the paywall to see this, but I assume the message is Brexit -> no more out of season lettuce, which is odd as the shortage was weather-driven.

    Weather IN EUROPE. I assume if we go hard Brexit we can import food from wherever - thus increasing security of food supply.
    Precisely. And you only have to look at the names for this stuff - courgette, zucchini - to see that it has no place on the Englishman's table. Turnips for us.
    Funny, I thought courgette and zucchini were the same thing!
    They are.
    as I now discover the Yuan and RMB are one and the same!
  • Options

    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    Another idiot who thinks that trade with the EU will just stop because we leave.
    Will it improve or decline?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    edited February 2017
    Might help highlight understanding of strengths & weaknesses in Remain & Leave votes. Ward by ward material, though not full pattern of returns.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

    I can see that Labour has split vote in Bristol for starters. Council estates in South Leave, Remain North of River.
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    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    Another idiot who thinks that trade with the EU will just stop because we leave.

    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    Another idiot who thinks that trade with the EU will just stop because we leave.

    No, Richard: merely pointing out that a trade deal with a protectionist US will not compensate for what we'll lose by leaving the Single Market. And that our European friends will know that. I am sorry you don't understand.

  • Options
    Mr. Trump, a man of flexible ideology but fixed habits....

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/05/us/politics/trump-white-house-aides-strategy.html
  • Options

    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    Another idiot who thinks that trade with the EU will just stop because we leave.
    Will it improve or decline?

    It will become more time consuming and more expensive. That will mean companies will have less cash and time to invest elsewhere. It's why so many will take steps to stay inside the Single Market, meaning they will create opportunities in the EU that otherwise would have been created here.

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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790


    as I now discover the Yuan and RMB are one and the same!

    "Renminbi" means "people's currency". Yusan is the unit. So Renminbi and Yuan are a bit like Sterling and Pound.

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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    Seriously?

    The tory party have gone nuts. A conservative PM with authority would reprimand an MP for that comment.

    The perils of a tiny majority....
    An outragous comment indeed.
    Strange article for one reason in particular. All the way through Sir Keith Starmer is described as ‘Sir Starmer”.
    AFAIK its either 'Sir Keith Starmer’ or 'Sir Keith’.
    Is he Keir's brother?

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
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    How not to do it: today in Spain the ex-leader of the Catalonian regional government goes on trial for holding a non-binding independence referendum. It is a gift to the Catalonian nationalists at a time when support for independence has been stalling. Once agian, Madrid is showing that it is the separatists' best friend.
    Directo | Empieza el juicio a Mas, Ortega y Rigau por la consulta del 9-N
    http://elpais.com/politica/2017/02/06/actualidad/1486361695_958190.html
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,156
    edited February 2017
    Not sure Budweiser is the best advert for immigration, but props to Anheuser-Busch for trying.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/827941158710083584
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    Not sure Budweiser is the best advert for immigration, but props to Anheuser-Busch for trying.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/827941158710083584

    Great ad, shit product. But retweeted across the world many thousands of times over - so job done.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    56% of UK exports now go outside the EU. The UK voted Leave and it is pointless trying to re fight the referendum
  • Options

    How not to do it: today in Spain the ex-leader of the Catalonian regional government goes on trial for holding a non-binding independence referendum. It is a gift to the Catalonian nationalists at a time when support for independence has been stalling. Once agian, Madrid is showing that it is the separatists' best friend.
    Directo | Empieza el juicio a Mas, Ortega y Rigau por la consulta del 9-N
    http://elpais.com/politica/2017/02/06/actualidad/1486361695_958190.html

    Michael Fallon-esque..
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited February 2017

    today in Spain the ex-leader of the Catalonian regional government goes on trial for holding a non-binding independence referendum.

    Cameron and Osborne.

    LOCK THEM UP
  • Options

    today in Spain the ex-leader of the Catalonian regional government goes on trial for holding a non-binding independence referendum.

    Cameron and Osborne.

    LOCK THEM UP
    ©PB Brexitories
  • Options

    today in Spain the ex-leader of the Catalonian regional government goes on trial for holding a non-binding independence referendum.

    Cameron and Osborne.

    LOCK THEM UP
    Bring back the Like button.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    HYUFD said:

    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    56% of UK exports now go outside the EU. The UK voted Leave and it is pointless trying to re fight the referendum
    There is always a point in holding politicians to account. Saying 'the argument stops now' just betrays insecurity.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    56% of UK exports now go outside the EU. The UK voted Leave and it is pointless trying to re fight the referendum

    I agree. But we have a Brexit deal to negotiate. We need one that does the least harm to the UK's economy. When assessing whether that's being achieved it's good to have some context.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    56% of UK exports now go outside the EU. The UK voted Leave and it is pointless trying to re fight the referendum
    There is always a point in holding politicians to account. Saying 'the argument stops now' just betrays insecurity.
    The politicians are just respecting the electorate's decision they mostly opposed
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    56% of UK exports now go outside the EU. The UK voted Leave and it is pointless trying to re fight the referendum
    There is always a point in holding politicians to account. Saying 'the argument stops now' just betrays insecurity.
    Good point. Leavers really seem to want all discussion to stop, that's the opposite of what has to happen.
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    dr_spyn said:
    Except 9% say its neither, so presumably, wouldn't kick up too much fuss if there was 1p on tax for NHS. That brings it roughly equal with the 'unacceptables'.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    dr_spyn said:
    Encouraging those who can afford it to take out insurance would help
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    President Trump has made very clear that America First means more auto and pharma production taking place in the US:
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/828514954584158209

    56% of UK exports now go outside the EU. The UK voted Leave and it is pointless trying to re fight the referendum
    There is always a point in holding politicians to account. Saying 'the argument stops now' just betrays insecurity.
    The politicians are just respecting the electorate's decision they mostly opposed

    Yes, we are leaving - we all know and respect that. The job of the government now is to get the best Brexit deal possible for the UK.

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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Encouraging those who can afford it to take out insurance would help

    I don't think that would really impact the resource issue. We have the situation where a LOT more people are going to hospitals. We need to address the reason for that first.
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    Alastair Cook has stepped down as England captain.

    Hopefully we'll have a Yorkshireman as Captain.
  • Options
    @HYUFD

    Clearly, the NHS simply can't cope. It's model requires real terms increases in funding pretty much every year to be sustainable but we don't have the cash.

    Yes, yes, we could lop another 2p on income tax to pay for it and social care but 6-8 years down the line that won't be sufficient either whilst putting a real drag on the whole economy.

    Pensions/NHS/social care are all linked (and linked the the oldies) and we really need to reduce the burdens and entitlements and up the levels of economic activity of the over 60s.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Patrick said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Unless it is this:

    "Britain’s courgettes and lettuces will soon return
    An appreciation of international trade should accompany seeing greens back on shelf"

    I can't get through the paywall to see this, but I assume the message is Brexit -> no more out of season lettuce, which is odd as the shortage was weather-driven.

    Weather IN EUROPE. I assume if we go hard Brexit we can import food from wherever - thus increasing security of food supply.
    Precisely. And you only have to look at the names for this stuff - courgette, zucchini - to see that it has no place on the Englishman's table. Turnips for us.
    Perhaps we should eat baby marrows...
  • Options

    How not to do it: today in Spain the ex-leader of the Catalonian regional government goes on trial for holding a non-binding independence referendum. It is a gift to the Catalonian nationalists at a time when support for independence has been stalling. Once agian, Madrid is showing that it is the separatists' best friend.
    Directo | Empieza el juicio a Mas, Ortega y Rigau por la consulta del 9-N
    http://elpais.com/politica/2017/02/06/actualidad/1486361695_958190.html

    Michael Fallon-esque..
    That's Sir Michael Fallon to you, he also goes by the name of Malleus Scotorum Gentem
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    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Lyon today: Le Pen addressed 1,400 at the launch of her candidacy. On the other side of town, Macron had a crowd of 8,000.

    https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/828159701007351808
    Macron's easy to like. We don't know much about him but Europe could do with another charismatic leader to complement Merkel.

    In the hypothetical case that the British economy tanks and Brexit is visibly reponsible and within a year of triggering article 50 it becomes obvious that this is happening.....

    I wonder what the chances are that at that point the UK government would try to reverse the decision?
    Nil.

    Get over it.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,008

    Alastair Cook has stepped down as England captain.

    Hopefully we'll have a Yorkshireman as Captain.

    I think Root’s nailed on as Captain, isn’t he.

    Could mean we have Cookie back at Essex a bit more, although he still wants to carry on as an England player.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    @HYUFD

    Clearly, the NHS simply can't cope. It's model requires real terms increases in funding pretty much every year to be sustainable but we don't have the cash.

    Yes, yes, we could lop another 2p on income tax to pay for it and social care but 6-8 years down the line that won't be sufficient either whilst putting a real drag on the whole economy.

    Pensions/NHS/social care are all linked (and linked the the oldies) and we really need to reduce the burdens and entitlements and up the levels of economic activity of the over 60s.

    Logan's Run
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Patrick said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Unless it is this:

    "Britain’s courgettes and lettuces will soon return
    An appreciation of international trade should accompany seeing greens back on shelf"

    I can't get through the paywall to see this, but I assume the message is Brexit -> no more out of season lettuce, which is odd as the shortage was weather-driven.

    Weather IN EUROPE. I assume if we go hard Brexit we can import food from wherever - thus increasing security of food supply.
    Precisely. And you only have to look at the names for this stuff - courgette, zucchini - to see that it has no place on the Englishman's table. Turnips for us.
    Perhaps we should eat baby marrows...
    :lol:
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    @HYUFD

    Clearly, the NHS simply can't cope. It's model requires real terms increases in funding pretty much every year to be sustainable but we don't have the cash.

    Yes, yes, we could lop another 2p on income tax to pay for it and social care but 6-8 years down the line that won't be sufficient either whilst putting a real drag on the whole economy.

    Pensions/NHS/social care are all linked (and linked the the oldies) and we really need to reduce the burdens and entitlements and up the levels of economic activity of the over 60s.

    Yes but that economic activity still needs to pay for insurance or increased NI
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    edited February 2017

    Alastair Cook has stepped down as England captain.

    Hopefully we'll have a Yorkshireman as Captain.

    I think Root’s nailed on as Captain, isn’t he.

    Could mean we have Cookie back at Essex a bit more, although he still wants to carry on as an England player.
    All the truly great England captains are from Yorkshire, apart Douglas Jardine, who was Scotland and he was awesome. The Aussies are still whining about him to this day.

    Root's awesomeness is nailed on because he's from Sheffield
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Blue_rog said:

    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Encouraging those who can afford it to take out insurance would help

    I don't think that would really impact the resource issue. We have the situation where a LOT more people are going to hospitals. We need to address the reason for that first.
    Charging for non urgent healthcare and cosmetic surgery would help
This discussion has been closed.