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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s corrosion is to Labour’s habits as much as to its pol
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s corrosion is to Labour’s habits as much as to its polling
“Damn your principles; stick to your party!” With such lofty dismissiveness did Disraeli once berate a colleague thinking of rebelling. It is not just hard but impossible to think of Jeremy Corbyn using like words, yet they are the currency of every successful parliamentary leader, if not always put so bluntly.
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Despite some very nifty footwork by Theresa May a defeat was always the most likely result. The 'hand of God' which did for England all those years ago has just done it again. The Europeans kept their distance and their dignity. We didn't. Being photographed hand in hand was the moment the world cringed. Here we were friendless clinging on for dear life to a President with the international respect of a dung beetle.
* Either the handholding was agreed with May in advance in which case God help us. Or it was planned by Trump in advance without May's agreement in which case God help us. Or it was spotanious and Trump thinks that's an appropriate way to behave to a guest and collegue in front of the world's media. In which case God help us. My instinct is it was the later. She did subliminally what almost all of us would do. Took the hand via social conditioning in the split second she liminally realised what a bizzare and inappropriate thing it was and how it would look. I almost feel sorry for. We know Trump is a creepy sexual predator. But she volunteered to rush first into the cess put and knew the risks. In fairness to her she did very well in the circumstances to get that far in the visit before falling of the highwire. But she knew there was no safety net.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/28/north-korea-has-restarted-reactor-to-make-plutonium-fresh-images-suggest?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying
I worked with him several times as a VO and remembering him regularly asking whether I wanted him to take a bigger drag on his Gouloise is now a little discomforting.
But what a voice....
And as for "ridicule in the Chanceleries of Europe" I very much doubt it extends to the former Eastern bloc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jpq-2lk8XKY&feature=youtu.be
Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.
The next leader can reassert authority only if he or she has conspicuously played by the conventional rules: leadership by example isn't the main thing. It's the only thing.
Looking forward to Mr Brind's rebuttal!
Because of the widespread misconception that planning is corrupt, as cheerfully and glibly espoused yet again by Dr Fox, most officials understandably go out of their way to apply policies to the letter so they are above suspicion. This of course serves to make the situation worse.
But then what do facts matter these days?
On topic David Herdson is astute. It's a constitutional inovation as well. Imagine if Corbyn was PM and he overturned a PLP no confidence vote by going to the members ? You can be appointed PM on the basis of a positive party vote. But remaining PM after a majority of the Commons didn't have confidence in you on the basis of an extraparliamentry vote... It is a constitutional inovation at least.
One thing about this country, that is interesting, is the lack of corruption. You can become a millionaire overnight, by getting planning permission to build on a field anywhere within 100 miles of London. Yet planning officers are *nearly* always not for sale. In many other places I have visited, they would be all driving Ferraris.
I am not sure why you felt obliged to introduce corruption into it. It is irrelevant to the point being made.
It's a pity that so many think we're living in a Banana Republic. The last index of corruption that I saw placed the UK at #10 globally. For comparison, France was #23.
In terms of David's header, I agree that Labour has a mountain to climb in terms of internal party managment ( and reconciliation!), but this is as nothing compared to the difficulties it faces in reconciling the two wings of its base in the electorate at large.
He slaughtered the very brightest and best the parliamentary Labour party had to offer - a one Mr Owen Smith.
Which would give the life lesson that everyone is on the take, they can all be bought and crude threats and bluster (combined with a smaller amount than they originally demanded) can make them back off... Hmmmmmmm...
If I was helping my wife down some stairs we might well have a very similar posture.
A very interesting piece, Mr. Herdson. There could be a surprisingly swift return to discipline, though.
The PLP was very united (albeit against Corbyn). Labour has a history of sheep-like obedience/strong discipline and I'm sure many would really like to return to that (which requires having a leader worthy of the name).
The counter-argument is when Alexander died. The genuine, then notional, support for his heir gradually slipped away until there was nothing there at all.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/28/stop-brexit-campaign-biggest-uk-biggest-protest-march?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/358555/exclusive-dundee-mp-chris-law-cleared-financial-wrongdoing-four-month-police-probe/
Labour only seem happy to stand on the sidelines, rudderless, without a leader or any real direction.
"Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."
Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.
Edit: What do you call a couple of million snowflakes on the street?
A blizzard.
1m people carrying banners saying "Yes to the Single Market", for example, might nudge some people's Brexitometer.
https://twitter.com/M1keRavenscroft/status/821773985151143940
A viral Washington Post story about State Department resignations is very misleading
http://www.vox.com/world/2017/1/27/14405542/washington-post-state-department-resignations
"You could as easily call the anti Iraq invasion 'anti democratic' in that it had been voted on in parliament."
Did I miss the referendum about it? Just shows that MP s aren't as clever as they suppose.
They're welcome to protest, but protesting about a democratic vote by the people seems a little odd. Well, it does to me.
And those placards? No votes for people we disagree with? Stop the oldies voting?
"Some people's Brexitometer."
You're right.
Placards reading "Yes to the Common Market, No to the EU." would work well.
I don't believe for a second the nonsense Trump is saying, and the counter is always well there has only been something in the order of 10's of proved cases.
However, the reality is probably that in a massive country like US, even with more checks and balances when you got to vote than here, that there is some underlying level of dodgy voting going on.
But the immediate OTT reaction against Trump's claims and continually stating there is NO voter fraud means if he manages to find some small level, he will be able to claim see I told you so, fake media at it again and now we need to put in place all these extra checks which many claim reduces Democrat leaning voters.
How many of this vast multitude of protesters will have delivered leaflets for Remain, I wonder? Putting in the footwork when it might have made a difference.
I'm of course an example of archetypal whip discipline - I revolted 35 times in 13 years, which isn't a lot, about 3 times a year although there are several votes every day. I accept David's general thesis as a starting point - both government and, more subtly, opposition only work well if there is a coherent approach. I think it's reasonable to argue your corner, try to get compromises and then give your party the benefit of any doubt. The exception is if you really care about something and/or your constituents do, and a problem is that Brexit is such a gut issue for many (both ways) that it does feel like a case where exceptions are called for. It works both ways - I kmow a prominent MP for a Leave-voting patch, an arch-critic of Corbyn, who admires his A50 3-line whip and thinks it shows genuine gutsy respect for constituents who voted Leave. It's on a basis of "OK, I will say he did well on this" rather than "I now think he's great" but it's progress in reducing the level of hostility. Equally I know people like Roger who are utterly appalled.
On corruption, I also think the system is largely bribe-free: it used not to be, with lots of famous scandals, but they seem to have been successfully squeezed out. Many planning officials do of course retain personal inclinations - some like to be helpful, some like to resist. They're, um, human. On the whole, if consuilted in advance, they try to help.
"Some people's Brexitometer." Agree. The EEA/EFTA model. It's a big ask but I agree people could register their support for it.
"Well what a fucking rat bag that Corbyn turned out to be eh? I thought the reason for the opposition was to oppose the Government! Maybe I was just being naive, anyway to hell with him.... Just another appeaser in the end!"
This can't be good for him
(1) Status quo bias
(2) Lack of European identity in the UK
(3) Requirement to join the euro
(4) Requirement to join Schengen
But I wonder if Corbyn has actually been so awful that it may actually help his successor maintain discipline. Corbyn and his team don't have any understanding that the leader's role is to set out what a Labour Government would do, rather than regurgitating half formed opinions soaked up from much cleverer people in 1984, and for that you need to agree a programme to do that. Frontbenchers routinely find out about new proposals or groups in their policy area mid-interview, while backbenchers are testily ordered to do what Corbyn says, not what he did for 30 years, or to suffer Momentum retaliation.
Anything bringing a degree of order, stability and normality after that will be embraced hungrily. And it is fairly likely that whoever comes in will be particularly attentive to those aspects, as it's been so bitter and agonising - even for many MPs traditionally quite close to Corbyn on the ideological aspects.
And in all probability that will also be what the overwhelming percentage of people on the march will want.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10212070450062249&set=gm.803364096479052&type=3&theater
And myself
It's also pretty clear that by and large Corbynistas do not get involved in CLP issues. That's why the PLP will remain mainly soft rather than hard left. In terms of discipline, my sense is that MPs will be relieved to return to relative normality. A new leader will have the full CLP to choose from to fill shadow posts because he/she will not carry Corbyn's baggage. That will be immensely helpful to unity. The ongoing rebels will return to being the cabal of hard leftists who always did it.
Then the really hard work will begin. Labour has wasted seven years, so far. Its aim at the next GE can only be to deny Ms May an overall majority and build from there. It'll take time, but with Corbyn gone it will be possible. The PM is now hand in hand with the US president. That will help.
"Now she holds the hand that grabbed the pussy."
Now let me see ... Nixon went to China, Blair supped with Ghadafi, The Queen shook hands with McGuinness ... That is statesmanlike.
But Trump is obviously far worse than those. Who does he rank with then? Hitler? Stalin?
A touch of hyperbole, perhaps?
For all the shambles he's presided over, there hasn't been a high-profile electoral one, yet. He's consistently outperformed expectations. That's not to say he's done well: he hasn't. Net losses in local elections is a good indicator that things are far from well. But he's always surpassed minium expectations. If that changes, Corbyn will be under a lot more pressure.