The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
The public already believe that the EU will not do a deal:
By 47% to 38% the public do say they have confidence in Theresa May to negotiate the sort of deal she described, but they do not expect the other member states of the EU to agree to them. Only 20% of people think that the EU will agree to the Brexit deal she wants, 56% think they will not.
And what happens then? Asked about May's statement that "no deal is better than a bad deal" 48% of the public agree, compared to 17% who would rather have a bad deal than no deal at all. 55% of people said that May should be prepared to walk away.
If Copeland canvass returns are so bad, why did Labour call the election today? Handle with extreme care.
Labour has the existing party organisation on the ground - trying to get the elections done quickly gives opposition parties less time to get their act together. Especially Ukip which, rumour has it, is not always a well-oiled machine.
Also, if Labour does lose one or both seats then the results will not be compounded by the anticipated failure in the local Government elections, as would occur if they were deferred until May. The potential for embarrassment in England is limited: the Manchester and Liverpool metro-mayoral votes look so safe that even Corbyn Labour would be hard-pressed to lose them, albeit that the Tories fancy their chances in the West Midlands; and the vast bulk of the shire councils are unfavourable to Labour already. However, Labour is virtually guaranteed to be massacred in Scotland, and could also suffer significant reversals in Wales.
The rumours from Copeland sound entirely plausible, but I think the Tories will win that one so this might just be a case of confirmation bias on my part.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
"I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own."
....
If some people want to use Twitter as an echo chamber for their political views, well why not? It is probably no worse than only reading one newspaper and claiming to be well informed on current affairs.
I think the trouble comes when those people want to be involved in politics. If you start getting involved in politics then you can't live in an echo chamber - you have to confront views which may differ from your own.
What on earth gives you that idea? Look at Jeremy Corbyn, as a starter for ten.
That's exactly my point. Because people like Corbyn want to live in an echo chamber it's a total disaster for the left.
Fair go, Miss. If one wants to succeed in politics then it is necessary to engage with views other than you own to argue, persuasively, for your point of view and to convince others who, perhaps, started off holding a different view. On the other hand, that rather depends on how one measures political success.
Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of the second largest parliamentary group and, apparently, the single most popular party (measured by membership) in the UK and he has neither updated his views nor engaged with those of others for more than thirty years.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
The Democrats should be favourites to regain the House in 2018. But, they may screw it up. Their clear dislike for US voters outside big cities may doom them again.
How you could suggest that when it's being suggested he wants to meet her as soon as possible is beyond me.
I'm suggesting it because it's being reported that Farage will be an advisor to him - something that goes against what the May government wants.
Trump can have however many advisors he wants - it isn't unusual at all for governments to have advisors from all walks of life. So long as he remains just that and not an interlocutor between the US and UK then respect is maintained.
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
The public already believe that the EU will not do a deal:
By 47% to 38% the public do say they have confidence in Theresa May to negotiate the sort of deal she described, but they do not expect the other member states of the EU to agree to them. Only 20% of people think that the EU will agree to the Brexit deal she wants, 56% think they will not.
And what happens then? Asked about May's statement that "no deal is better than a bad deal" 48% of the public agree, compared to 17% who would rather have a bad deal than no deal at all. 55% of people said that May should be prepared to walk away.
I'm well aware of those results. I believe that the reputation of the EU is already so low in the eyes of most voters - a combination of the fact that it was always unloved with the slow motion train wrecks of the Eurozone and migrant crises - that a healthy majority will take the Prime Minister's side if it fails to offer Britain what British voters perceive to be a reasonable Brexit deal. Continuity Remainers can scream all they like: all the Leavers and a decent chunk of the soft, pragmatic Remain vote are going to presume the worst of the EU.
Under such circumstances, the cussedness of the British personality is liable to come to the fore, causing support for the Government to strengthen.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
The Democrats should be favourites to regain the House in 2018. But, they may screw it up. Their clear dislike for US voters outside big cities may doom them again.
Mid terms are almost always votes against the party of the president not for the party of opposition and Nancy Pelosi knows how to win a national election against an incumbent president as she did in 2006
Regarding Copeland: the Telegraph article is consistent with information I've received from a Labour source who is usually very reliable. Nonetheless, I think one should treat it with caution, because it shows only one side of the picture; canvassing tells you how your own support is holding up, but is much less useful for assessing how the other lot's is.
I'm surprised there appears to be no betting market on the date (i.e. year) when Corbyn ceases to be Labour Leader ..... perhaps Shadsy would oblige with one of his specials.
Were Labour to lose Copeland, then I would expect 2017 to edge it as favourite at around 2/1. Other years might be something along the lines of: 2018: 4/1, 2019: 3/1, 2020 or later: 5/2.
But how can he be removed
You appear to be a fan of the 2020 or later option, which I priced as being the current 5/2 second favourite. As regards how he might be removed ...... the most likely manner would seem to be by his resignation.
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
The public already believe that the EU will not do a deal:
By 47% to 38% the public do say they have confidence in Theresa May to negotiate the sort of deal she described, but they do not expect the other member states of the EU to agree to them. Only 20% of people think that the EU will agree to the Brexit deal she wants, 56% think they will not.
And what happens then? Asked about May's statement that "no deal is better than a bad deal" 48% of the public agree, compared to 17% who would rather have a bad deal than no deal at all. 55% of people said that May should be prepared to walk away.
I'm well aware of those results. I believe that the reputation of the EU is already so low in the eyes of most voters - a combination of the fact that it was always unloved with the slow motion train wrecks of the Eurozone and migrant crises - that a healthy majority will take the Prime Minister's side if it fails to offer Britain what British voters perceive to be a reasonable Brexit deal. Continuity Remainers can scream all they like: all the Leavers and a decent chunk of the soft, pragmatic Remain vote are going to presume the worst of the EU.
Under such circumstances, the cussedness of the British personality is liable to come to the fore, causing support for the Government to strengthen.
To be honest Tyson she believes in doing the right thing and the right thing is to stand by her word and not call at GE unless A50 is threatened. I believe that the Nation appreciates a politician who puts the Country first rather than political calculations
Remind me, Mr Wales, which of these is Mrs may supposed to be?
Copeland - the one thing, the only thing, Corbyn Labour has been good at is expectation management; so handle the vote story with extreme care. If Labour does lose, though, it would be beyond catastrophic for the leadership and the party as a whole.
The wording of the quotes suggests a source with a definite anti-Corbyn view himself, but the selection of an anti-Corbyn pro-nuclear candidate makes that line of thought more difficult to sustain. I have no direct information but it's too early to call it accurately.
You've already called it for Labour. As you know, both Copeland and Stoke are all about Jeremy. Copeland's CLP has quite rightly tried to mitigate his hugely negative affect, but it may well not be enough. Everyone knows who the Labour leader is.
To be honest Tyson she believes in doing the right thing and the right thing is to stand by her word and not call at GE unless A50 is threatened. I believe that the Nation appreciates a politician who puts the Country first rather than political calculations
Remind me, Mr Wales, which of these is Mrs may supposed to be?
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
The Democrats should be favourites to regain the House in 2018. But, they may screw it up. Their clear dislike for US voters outside big cities may doom them again.
Mid terms are almost always votes against the party of the president not for the party of opposition and Nancy Pelosi knows how to win a national election against an incumbent president as she did in 2006
2006 being six years after the GOP won the Presidency and the penultimate election before the Democrats regained it.
The former claim won't be true until 2022 and there's no guarantee the Dem's are locked in for 2020 which the latter needs.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
The Democrats should be favourites to regain the House in 2018. But, they may screw it up. Their clear dislike for US voters outside big cities may doom them again.
Mid terms are almost always votes against the party of the president not for the party of opposition and Nancy Pelosi knows how to win a national election against an incumbent president as she did in 2006
2006 being six years after the GOP won the Presidency and the penultimate election before the Democrats regained it.
The former claim won't be true until 2022 and there's no guarantee the Dem's are locked in for 2020 which the latter needs.
The only reason the Democrats did not win in 2002 was 9/11. Otherwise the opposition party has won the House at the first mid terms of every President since Carter (and Carter still suffered big losses in 1978)
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
If Trump moves to engage in competitive tax cutting for businesses, then the G20 agreement on the subject made at Antalya is toast. This is very relevant as the German finance minister has been warning Britain not to engage in the competitive cutting of corporation tax, based on the fact that we signed up to this agreement.
An important diplomatic barrier to Britain doing the same thing would therefore be removed. Could come in very handy if the EU chooses to play hardball over trade - in fact, could come in very handy in any event.
As Philip Hammond recently said, Britain follows the European social model but is toward the American end of it. We also have a centre-right Government facing a very weak Opposition. If compelled to do so, we have a lot more political room to hack away at social spending, in order to fund aggressive tax cuts, than is the case in most Continental European societies. Under adverse circumstances, the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
Beyond corporation tax I don't think tax cuts will be that radical but that cut could be crucial in keeping investment here
UK corporation tax down to 12.5% in 2020 ?
Ideally the Government ought to be thinking of abolishing corporation tax. Either that, or cutting it to a low level (no more than 10%) and supplementing that with cuts to employers' National Insurance contributions.
The gap in the public finances could be plugged by a combination of spending cuts, and increases in property taxes. This might cause the ever-inflating property market to cool, which is not necessarily to the taste of a party that likes to keep elements of its core vote happy with continually rising house prices, but needs must - and it's certainly more palatable than raiding the cash benefits paid to the aged, which they must treat as sacrosanct.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
The Democrats should be favourites to regain the House in 2018. But, they may screw it up. Their clear dislike for US voters outside big cities may doom them again.
Mid terms are almost always votes against the party of the president not for the party of opposition and Nancy Pelosi knows how to win a national election against an incumbent president as she did in 2006
The Democrats could still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This is now a party of hard-faced capitalists, combined with ethnic and sexual interest groups, which is a difficult coalition to manage.
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
If Trump moves to engage in competitive tax cutting for businesses, then the G20 agreement on the subject made at Antalya is toast. This is very relevant as the German finance minister has been warning Britain not to engage in the competitive cutting of corporation tax, based on the fact that we signed up to this agreement.
An important diplomatic barrier to Britain doing the same thing would therefore be removed. Could come in very handy if the EU chooses to play hardball over trade - in fact, could come in very handy in any event.
As Philip Hammond recently said, Britain follows the European social model but is toward the American end of it. We also have a centre-right Government facing a very weak Opposition. If compelled to do so, we have a lot more political room to hack away at social spending, in order to fund aggressive tax cuts, than is the case in most Continental European societies. Under adverse circumstances, the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
Beyond corporation tax I don't think tax cuts will be that radical but that cut could be crucial in keeping investment here
UK corporation tax down to 12.5% in 2020 ?
Would be even lower than the 15% Trump is proposing
Fair go, Miss. If one wants to succeed in politics then it is necessary to engage with views other than you own to argue, persuasively, for your point of view and to convince others who, perhaps, started off holding a different view. On the other hand, that rather depends on how one measures political success.
Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of the second largest parliamentary group and, apparently, the single most popular party (measured by membership) in the UK and he has neither updated his views nor engaged with those of others for more than thirty years.
Corbyn is successful when contesting elections where the electorate essentially agrees with him. Given that he doesn't really want to actually be PM, I guess he'll view his position as leading a protest movement as a success. But for many on the left, who generally see winning elections as part of being successful, Corbyn is a total disaster.
@Philip_Thompson I think it's about who Trump has appointed. Theresa May shouldn't have to jostle with Nigel Farage over who influences Trump the most.
The lies of the ‘refugee’ who had an affair with a married charity chief. He wasn't Syrian, he came for a wealthy family, and, most staggering of all, he already had a BRITISH wife
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
The Democrats should be favourites to regain the House in 2018. But, they may screw it up. Their clear dislike for US voters outside big cities may doom them again.
Mid terms are almost always votes against the party of the president not for the party of opposition and Nancy Pelosi knows how to win a national election against an incumbent president as she did in 2006
The Democrats could still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This is now a party of hard-faced capitalists, combined with ethnic and sexual interest groups, which is a difficult coalition to manage.
The Democrats could put up a collection of tree hugging hippies and still win the House if Trump's ratings are in the toilet. The Democrats were just as much a collection of capitalists and minority groups in 2006 but Pelosi led them to a landslide victory. Pelosi is also more ruthless than Ryan in my view and cut the GOP majority even when Trump won his victory
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
If Trump moves to engage in competitive tax cutting for businesses, then the G20 agreement on the subject made at Antalya is toast. This is very relevant as the German finance minister has been warning Britain not to engage in the competitive cutting of corporation tax, based on the fact that we signed up to this agreement.
An important diplomatic barrier to Britain doing the same thing would therefore be removed. Could come in very handy if the EU chooses to play hardball over trade - in fact, could come in very handy in any event.
As Philip Hammond recently said, Britain follows the European social model but is toward the American end of it. We also have a centre-right Government facing a very weak Opposition. If compelled to do so, we have a lot more political room to hack away at social spending, in order to fund aggressive tax cuts, than is the case in most Continental European societies. Under adverse circumstances, the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
Beyond corporation tax I don't think tax cuts will be that radical but that cut could be crucial in keeping investment here
UK corporation tax down to 12.5% in 2020 ?
Ideally the Government ought to be thinking of abolishing corporation tax. Either that, or cutting it to a low level (no more than 10%) and supplementing that with cuts to employers' National Insurance contributions.
The gap in the public finances could be plugged by a combination of spending cuts, and increases in property taxes. This might cause the ever-inflating property market to cool, which is not necessarily to the taste of a party that likes to keep elements of its core vote happy with continually rising house prices, but needs must - and it's certainly more palatable than raiding the cash benefits paid to the aged, which they must treat as sacrosanct.
Employer's NI should be abolished altogether. It is a payroll tax on expenditure rather than a tax on income like almost all other comparable taxes are.
Well fellow posters, I have had a full day watching TV and posting online and both my notepad battery and I need to be re-charged.
It has been a momentus day with so much controversy that you have to pinch yourself to see if this is really happening.
Those on the left must be distraught and those on the right overjoyed
However the majority will be somewhere in the middle which I would suggest is a kind of uneasiness at how today will translate for peace and trade in the future.
Let's all hope that sense prevails on all sides
Good night and my best wishes to all posters no matter which side of the arguments you are on.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
The Democrats should be favourites to regain the House in 2018. But, they may screw it up. Their clear dislike for US voters outside big cities may doom them again.
Not sure they will take the House even then. Unless Trump so poisons the party that he loses the exurbs. Dem distribution of votes is so suboptimal they can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose the House.
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
If Trump moves to engage in competitive tax cutting for businesses, then the G20 agreement on the subject made at Antalya is toast. This is very relevant as the German finance minister has been warning Britain not to engage in the competitive cutting of corporation tax, based on the fact that we signed up to this agreement.
An important diplomatic barrier to Britain doing the same thing would therefore be removed. Could come in very handy if the EU chooses to play hardball over trade - in fact, could come in very handy in any event.
As Philip Hammond recently said, Britain follows the European social model but is toward the American end of it. We also have a centre-right Government facing a very weak Opposition. If compelled to do so, we have a lot more political room to hack away at social spending, in order to fund aggressive tax cuts, than is the case in most Continental European societies. Under adverse circumstances, the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
Beyond corporation tax I don't think tax cuts will be that radical but that cut could be crucial in keeping investment here
UK corporation tax down to 12.5% in 2020 ?
Ideally the Government ought to be thinking of abolishing corporation tax. Either that, or cutting it to a low level (no more than 10%) and supplementing that with cuts to employers' National Insurance contributions.
The gap in the public finances could be plugged by a combination of spending cuts, and increases in property taxes. This might cause the ever-inflating property market to cool, which is not necessarily to the taste of a party that likes to keep elements of its core vote happy with continually rising house prices, but needs must - and it's certainly more palatable than raiding the cash benefits paid to the aged, which they must treat as sacrosanct.
Employer's NI should be abolished altogether. It is a payroll tax on expenditure rather than a tax on income like almost all other comparable taxes are.
NI full stop should be abolished / wrapped in. Osborne started the process of looking at reforming this on the employees side, but kicked it into the long grass.
To be honest Tyson she believes in doing the right thing and the right thing is to stand by her word and not call at GE unless A50 is threatened. I believe that the Nation appreciates a politician who puts the Country first rather than political calculations
Remind me, Mr Wales, which of these is Mrs may supposed to be?
Both
But if she put the country first, she would not be scuppering the economy by taking us out of the single market.
Theresa May is just playing at politics, and her top priority is her own image and her own political future.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
The Democrats should be favourites to regain the House in 2018. But, they may screw it up. Their clear dislike for US voters outside big cities may doom them again.
Mid terms are almost always votes against the party of the president not for the party of opposition and Nancy Pelosi knows how to win a national election against an incumbent president as she did in 2006
The Democrats could still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This is now a party of hard-faced capitalists, combined with ethnic and sexual interest groups, which is a difficult coalition to manage.
The Democrats could put up a collection of tree hugging hippies and still win the House if Trump's ratings are in the toilet. The Democrats were just as much a collection of capitalists and minority groups in 2006 but Pelosi led them to a landslide victory. Pelosi is also more ruthless than Ryan in my view and cut the GOP majority even when Trump won his victory
Things are now more ideological. Back in 2006, the Democrats were willing to run fairly conservative candidates (the Blue Dogs) in marginal seats. Now, they're in no mood to make concessions.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
The Democrats should be favourites to regain the House in 2018. But, they may screw it up. Their clear dislike for US voters outside big cities may doom them again.
Not sure they will take the House even then. Unless Trump so poisons the party that he loses the exurbs. Dem distribution of votes is so suboptimal they can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose the House.
If the mood is for change and for a protest vote against Trump they will win the popular vote comfortably and gain control as they did in 2006
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
If Trump moves to engage in competitive tax cutting for businesses, then the G20 agreement on the subject made at Antalya is toast. This is very relevant as the German finance minister has been warning Britain not to engage in the competitive cutting of corporation tax, based on the fact that we signed up to this agreement.
An important ace of EU intransigence.
Beyond corporation tax I don't think tax cuts will be that radical but that cut could be crucial in keeping investment here
UK corporation tax down to 12.5% in 2020 ?
Ideally the Government ought to be thinking of abolishing corporation tax. Either that, or cutting it to a low level (no more than 10%) and supplementing that with cuts to employers' National Insurance contributions.
The gap in the public finances could be plugged by a combination of spending cuts, and increases in property taxes. This might cause the ever-inflating property market to cool, which is not necessarily to the taste of a party that likes to keep elements of its core vote happy with continually rising house prices, but needs must - and it's certainly more palatable than raiding the cash benefits paid to the aged, which they must treat as sacrosanct.
Employer's NI should be abolished altogether. It is a payroll tax on expenditure rather than a tax on income like almost all other comparable taxes are.
NI full stop should be abolished / wrapped in. Osborne started the process of looking at reforming this on the employees side, but kicked it into the long grass.
No it should be returned to its original goal of funding pensions and most unemployment benefit
To be honest Tyson she believes in doing the right thing and the right thing is to stand by her word and not call at GE unless A50 is threatened. I believe that the Nation appreciates a politician who puts the Country first rather than political calculations
Remind me, Mr Wales, which of these is Mrs may supposed to be?
Both
But if she put the country first, she would not be scuppering the economy by taking us out of the single market.
Theresa May is just playing at politics, and her top priority is her own image and her own political future.
Rubbish - she is taking us out of Europe as mandated and is gaining popularity by doing what the majority want her to do
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
The Democrats should be favourites to regain the House in 2018. But, they may screw it up. Their clear dislike for US voters outside big cities may doom them again.
Mid terms are almost always votes against the party of the president not for the party of opposition and Nancy Pelosi knows how to win a national election against an incumbent president as she did in 2006
The Democrats could still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This is now a party of hard-faced capitalists, combined with ethnic and sexual interest groups, which is a difficult coalition to manage.
The Democrats could put up a collection of tree hugging hippies and still win the House even when Trump won his victory
Things are now more ideological. Back in 2006, the Democrats were willing to run fairly conservative candidates (the Blue Dogs) in marginal seats. Now, they're in no mood to make concessions.
Those seats would probably have mainly gone Democrat anyway given the national swing but even now a North Carolina Democrat is still a slightly different beast from a Massachusetts or California Democrat. However the biggest Democratic gains are likely to be in the West rather than the South
If Copeland canvass returns are so bad, why did Labour call the election today? Handle with extreme care.
It seems a bit odd. If it is very clear to local party workers on the ground that the seat is 'lost' ,why would there have been a disagreement with national party HQ as to the timing of the by election? One day of poor results on May 4th would surely be preferable to having two such days.
So if the Dems absolutely sweep the all the above West, they pick up 30 seats. Admittedly, that is more than the 24 they need.
But in the real world, that is simply not going to happen. Most of the remaining GOP seats in the states are pretty safe. Picking up 1/3 of the GOP seats in the above states would be a great outing, but would only give them 10.
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
Although US companies actual cash tax rate is closer to 20% than the official 35%. The Trump plan removes the tax deductability of interest, removes a lot of loopholes, and lowers the tax rate. In total, the effect is likely to be mildly revenue negative, and mildly stimulatory, but not as much as the headline would suggest.
Don't know if you heard it, but one of the little kids was constantly moaning "I want to go home" Shep Smith wryly noted that the kid was voicing what we were all feeling ...
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
What you mean those $200k an hour speaking fees weren't $200k an hour due to the quality of the speeches given?
The speaking fees were small beer - it's the big overseas donations that dried up.
I believe though often the big oversea donation came in shortly after Bill would visit a country to give one of what must have been stellar (given the rate charged) speeches....and coincidentally often the country he would visit, and then receive massive donations, happen to have some issue that somebody powerful in US politics could assist with.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
She'll have to up her performance - she became a clown questioning Mike Pompeo on climate change during his CIA confirmation hearing.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
So if the Dems absolutely sweep the all the above West, they pick up 30 seats. Admittedly, that is more than the 24 they need.
But in the real world, that is simply not going to happen. Most of the remaining GOP seats in the states are pretty safe. Picking up 1/3 of the GOP seats in the above states would be a great outing, but would only give them 10.
Absolute worse case for GOP, losing all seats less than R +5:
Regarding Copeland: the Telegraph article is consistent with information I've received from a Labour source who is usually very reliable. Nonetheless, I think one should treat it with caution, because it shows only one side of the picture; canvassing tells you how your own support is holding up, but is much less useful for assessing how the other lot's is.
Strikes me that it is early days - "Before the game is afoot thou still let’st slip."
So if the Dems absolutely sweep the all the above West, they pick up 30 seats. Admittedly, that is more than the 24 they need.
But in the real world, that is simply not going to happen. Most of the remaining GOP seats in the states are pretty safe. Picking up 1/3 of the GOP seats in the above states would be a great outing, but would only give them 10.
Given on a big national swing to the Democrats they would also make reasonable gains in the Midwest and Northeast 10 in the West would help carry them to at least 25 and a majority
I don't understand why so many conservatives are embracing Trump, purely because he pisses off "liberal left snowflakes" , when Trump's entire mandate is equally a repudiation of everything conservatives (or cuckservatives, as the alt-righties would have it) stand for.
I'm not entirely sure I want to join in tonight: Brits banging on about American politics is not really interesting without a betting market involved, and the rest is just BrexteersWanking.com. However, there is one thing I want to share with you: the fact that if you do Trump's speech in a Bane accent ("pfeeple ouff Gothwam"!) it's...oddly fitting.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
I'm not entirely sure I want to join in tonight: Brits banging on about American politics is not really interesting without a betting market involved, and the rest is just BrexteersWanking.com. However, there is one thing I want to share with you: the fact that if you do Trump's speech in a Bane accent ("pfeeple ouff Gothwam"!) it's...oddly fitting.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
If Warren runs she will get it
Indicating that Democrats forget nothing and learn nothing.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
If Warren runs she will get it
If Warren runs, there's a good chance she won't. The Democrats need to go:
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
That's a good pick
Cuimo will be lucky to make it until 2020 without being indicted. Preet Bharara has him firmly in his sights.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
If Warren runs she will get it
If Warren runs, there's a good chance she won't. The Democrats need to go:
I'm not entirely sure I want to join in tonight: Brits banging on about American politics is not really interesting without a betting market involved, and the rest is just BrexteersWanking.com. However, there is one thing I want to share with you: the fact that if you do Trump's speech in a Bane accent ("pfeeple ouff Gothwam"!) it's...oddly fitting.
If you've been paying attention, I've just suggested a POTUS bet, albeit one which won't be settled for a further four year! Compared with Cuomo's odds of becoming the 2020 Democratic Nominee, which are as short as 10/1, his 80/1 odds (now 75/1) against becoming POTUS looks even better value.
I don't trust leaked canvass data. Sometimes it's true but it's far too easy to lie and play expectation management for reports to be reliable.
That said, if the expectation management is anticipating losing a seat held since 1935 to the government in a by-election, that alone says quite a lot.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
If Warren runs she will get it
Don't agree - she had every chance to get involved this time around, but somehow never showed the necessary determination or ambition - her time has now probably passed.
I don't understand why so many conservatives are embracing Trump, purely because he pisses off "liberal left snowflakes" , when Trump's entire mandate is equally a repudiation of everything conservatives (or cuckservatives, as the alt-righties would have it) stand for.
One absolutely horrible thing I have realised over the years is that the principles that parties (and their members and cheerleaders) profess to believe are simply bullshit: they are whatever postfacto rationalisations are available at the time to justify what they have already intended to do to defend their tribe. So pissing off liberal left snowflakes is an entirely valid reason to vote for him, even if his protectionism betrays everything their economy minded free-market principles stand for...because they never really believed them in the first place.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
If Warren runs she will get it
If Warren runs, there's a good chance she won't. The Democrats need to go:
1. outside the Beltway 2. Young 3. Centrist.
Warren scores 0/3.
The Democrats are fed up with centrists after Hillary and normally the young outsider comes after the President's final term not when they are up for re election, then an experienced figure is favoured, more often than not a Senator, Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater etc
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
That's a good pick
Cuimo will be lucky to make it until 2020 without being indicted. Preet Bharara has him firmly in his sights.
Does that guy ever sleep...he seems to be constantly taking people down in big complex cases.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
If Warren runs she will get it
If Warren runs, there's a good chance she won't. The Democrats need to go:
1. outside the Beltway 2. Young 3. Centrist.
Warren scores 0/3.
Too far out to say. But I suspect America will be looking for someone who's fundamental characteristic is that they are stable and who will steady the ship quickly and will restore dignity to the office.
There will be a yearning for someone like Ike after a rollercoaster four years.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
Another New Yorker? I can see the argument for Cuomo but I wonder about someone like Roy Cooper of North Carolina?
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
If Warren runs she will get it
If Warren runs, there's a good chance she won't. The Democrats need to go:
1. outside the Beltway 2. Young 3. Centrist.
Warren scores 0/3.
The Democrats are fed up with centrists after Hillary and normally the young outsider comes after the President's final term not when they are up for re election, then an experienced figure is favoured, more often than not a Senator, Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater etc
How many of those won? The exception in 1992 is notable.
I don't understand why so many conservatives are embracing Trump, purely because he pisses off "liberal left snowflakes" , when Trump's entire mandate is equally a repudiation of everything conservatives (or cuckservatives, as the alt-righties would have it) stand for.
One absolutely horrible thing I have realised over the years is that the principles that parties (and their members and cheerleaders) profess to believe are simply bullshit: they are whatever postfacto rationalisations are available at the time to justify what they have already intended to do to defend their tribe. So pissing off liberal left snowflakes is an entirely valid reason to vote for him, even if his protectionism betrays everything their economy minded free-market principles stand for...because they never really believed them in the first place.
The Tories have done it all in double quick time with the single market.
I'm not entirely sure I want to join in tonight: Brits banging on about American politics is not really interesting without a betting market involved, and the rest is just BrexteersWanking.com. However, there is one thing I want to share with you: the fact that if you do Trump's speech in a Bane accent ("pfeeple ouff Gothwam"!) it's...oddly fitting.
Stretching the definition of the word plagiarise just a tad...
If you interleave your fingers, bring your palms towards each other, put them over your mouth and mush your voish in a Sean Connery way, it sounds really good. Make Gotham Great Again!
I don't understand why so many conservatives are embracing Trump, purely because he pisses off "liberal left snowflakes" , when Trump's entire mandate is equally a repudiation of everything conservatives (or cuckservatives, as the alt-righties would have it) stand for.
Trump appeals to nationalist conservatives like Farage not libertarian conservatives like Hannan
I'm not entirely sure I want to join in tonight: Brits banging on about American politics is not really interesting without a betting market involved, and the rest is just BrexteersWanking.com. However, there is one thing I want to share with you: the fact that if you do Trump's speech in a Bane accent ("pfeeple ouff Gothwam"!) it's...oddly fitting.
If you've been paying attention, I've just suggested a POTUS bet, albeit one which won't be settled for a further four year! Compared with Cuomo's odds of becoming the 2020 Democratic Nominee, which are as short as 10/1, his 80/1 odds (now 75/1) against becoming POTUS looks even better value.
Play fair: there was rather a lot of shit to wade thru. I am interested in the leaked canvassing reports, tho...
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
If Warren runs she will get it
If Warren runs, there's a good chance she won't. The Democrats need to go:
1. outside the Beltway 2. Young 3. Centrist.
Warren scores 0/3.
The Democrats are fed up with centrists after Hillary and normally the young outsider comes after the President's final term not when they are up for re election, then an experienced figure is favoured, more often than not a Senator, Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater etc
How many of those won? The exception in 1992 is notable.
Clinton won after 12 years of the GOP in the White House not 4. I am not saying Warren is the best candidate for the Democrats but the most likely, as I said in the last thread I think the Democrats will take the House in 2018 but pick Warren and ensure Trump's re election in 2020 but we shall see and obviously early days
I'm not entirely sure I want to join in tonight: Brits banging on about American politics is not really interesting without a betting market involved, and the rest is just BrexteersWanking.com. However, there is one thing I want to share with you: the fact that if you do Trump's speech in a Bane accent ("pfeeple ouff Gothwam"!) it's...oddly fitting.
If you've been paying attention, I've just suggested a POTUS bet, albeit one which won't be settled for a further four year! Compared with Cuomo's odds of becoming the 2020 Democratic Nominee, which are as short as 10/1, his 80/1 odds (now 75/1) against becoming POTUS looks even better value.
Play fair: there was rather a lot of shit to wade thru. I am interested in the leaked canvassing reports, tho...
I don't understand why so many conservatives are embracing Trump, purely because he pisses off "liberal left snowflakes" , when Trump's entire mandate is equally a repudiation of everything conservatives (or cuckservatives, as the alt-righties would have it) stand for.
I think the simple answer to that is that they're scared.
They're drawn to Trump because he a) has power and b) tells them their fears are true. That trumps any ideological conviction they may otherwise hold.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
If Warren runs she will get it
If Warren runs, there's a good chance she won't. The Democrats need to go:
1. outside the Beltway 2. Young 3. Centrist.
Warren scores 0/3.
The Democrats are fed up with centrists after Hillary and normally the young outsider comes after the President's final term not when they are up for re election, then an experienced figure is favoured, more often than not a Senator, Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater etc
How many of those won? The exception in 1992 is notable.
Clinton won after 12 years of the GOP in the White House not 4. I am not saying Warren is the best candidate for the Democrats but the most likely, as I said in the last thread I think the Democrats will take the House in 2018 but pick Warren and ensure Trump's re election in 2020 but we shall see and obviously early days
True, but it was still GHW Bush's re-election bid rather than an open contest - and at the time decisions needed to be made on whether to run or not, Bush was incredibly popular in the aftermath of the Gulf War.
Re Warren, I agree with PfP: if she really wanted it, she should have run this time and her age will count against her. That said, what's in a party's best interests and what a party does are two different things. Even so, I don't think she'll run and if she does, I don't think she'll get it.
I'm not entirely sure I want to join in tonight: Brits banging on about American politics is not really interesting without a betting market involved, and the rest is just BrexteersWanking.com. However, there is one thing I want to share with you: the fact that if you do Trump's speech in a Bane accent ("pfeeple ouff Gothwam"!) it's...oddly fitting.
Stretching the definition of the word plagiarise just a tad...
If you interleave your fingers, bring your palms towards each other, put them over your mouth and mush your voish in a Sean Connery way, it sounds really good. Make Gotham Great Again!
I picture Trump as Ronnie Cox in Total Recall (original and best version!):
"Because I have one of the greatest jobs in the solar system. As long as the Trumpinium keeps flowing, I can do anything I want. Anything! In fact, the only thing I worry about is, one day, if the Democrats win, it all might end."
I'm not entirely sure I want to join in tonight: Brits banging on about American politics is not really interesting without a betting market involved, and the rest is just BrexteersWanking.com. However, there is one thing I want to share with you: the fact that if you do Trump's speech in a Bane accent ("pfeeple ouff Gothwam"!) it's...oddly fitting.
If you've been paying attention, I've just suggested a POTUS bet, albeit one which won't be settled for a further four year! Compared with Cuomo's odds of becoming the 2020 Democratic Nominee, which are as short as 10/1, his 80/1 odds (now 75/1) against becoming POTUS looks even better value.
Play fair: there was rather a lot of shit to wade thru. I am interested in the leaked canvassing reports, tho...
Are you playing the by-election yet ?
I might not be able to. One thing last year taught me is that I can occasionally be good at predicting the outcome of an election, but it requires quite a lot of reading up about past similar elections: so last year I'd done quite a lot of work on the EU ref and so could make an informed stab, but I was busy on something else for the POTUS election so my bet was just for insurance purposes. This year I figure I can do the German federal and (possibly!) the French presidential.
However, I am keen in leaked canvassing. Of all the predictors in UK elections, leaked canvasses (months out), postal vote sampling (weeks out) and vote verification (minutes out) are to my mind the most promising. So discussion of same is interesting to me.
Following on from OGH's shrewd pick of Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee in 2020 and to go on to become the next POTUS that year, I've been been doing a little long shot punting myself, this time crossing the USA to the East Coast, where my 80/1 pick to become POTUS in 2020 is the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo. Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration! DYOR.
If Warren runs she will get it
If Warren runs, there's a good chance she won't. The Democrats need to go:
1. outside the Beltway 2. Young 3. Centrist.
Warren scores 0/3.
The Democrats are fed up with centrists after Hillary and normally the young outsider comes after the President's final term not when they are up for re election, then an experienced figure is favoured, more often than not a Senator, Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater etc
How many of those won? The exception in 1992 is notable.
Clinton won after 12 years of the GOP in the White House not 4. I am not saying Warren is the best candidate for the Democrats but the most likely, as I said in the last thread I think the Democrats will take the House in 2018 but pick Warren and ensure Trump's re election in 2020 but we shall see and obviously early days
True, but it was still GHW Bush's re-election bid rather than an open contest - and at the time decisions needed to be made on whether to run or not, Bush was incredibly popular in the aftermath of the Gulf War.
Re Warren, I agree with PfP: if she really wanted it, she should have run this time and her age will count against her. That said, what's in a party's best interests and what a party does are two different things. Even so, I don't think she'll run and if she does, I don't think she'll get it.
It was the recession which really did for GHW Bush. Warren was not going to challenge Hillary but the field is clear for 2020 and if you add Sanders and Warren's poll ratings in early polls you have a clear majority of Democratic primary voters
I'm not entirely sure I want to join in tonight: Brits banging on about American politics is not really interesting without a betting market involved, and the rest is just BrexteersWanking.com. However, there is one thing I want to share with you: the fact that if you do Trump's speech in a Bane accent ("pfeeple ouff Gothwam"!) it's...oddly fitting.
Stretching the definition of the word plagiarise just a tad...
If you interleave your fingers, bring your palms towards each other, put them over your mouth and mush your voish in a Sean Connery way, it sounds really good. Make Gotham Great Again!
I picture Trump as Ronnie Cox in Total Recall (original and best version!):
"Because I have one of the greatest jobs in the solar system. As long as the Trumpinium keeps flowing, I can do anything I want. Anything! In fact, the only thing I worry about is, one day, if the Democrats win, it all might end."
And if memory serves, Cox (yes, that one) in "Total Recall" had a somewhat implausible backcomb...
How utterly depressing. That quite possibly means the end of the Paris Climate Agreement and, with it, the last real change of limiting carbon emissions. If you want your descendants to inherit the family home, best make sure it's on high ground!
Good. Climate change is economic voodoo. We will adapt. The best periods for life on earth - a provable fact in terms of species variety - have been the warmer periods.
There's a small, but not completely negligible, chance that burning all accessible fossil fuels will turn the Earth into another Venus. Our descendants may have some difficulties adapting to that.
during the carboniferous period co2 levels were 1800ppm almost 5 times more than now, if we were going to turn into venus we would have already done so
Nope, because the sun was a bit dimmer in those days.
source for that oh thats right you cant quote one because no one knows
Comments
By 47% to 38% the public do say they have confidence in Theresa May to negotiate the sort of deal she described, but they do not expect the other member states of the EU to agree to them. Only 20% of people think that the EU will agree to the Brexit deal she wants, 56% think they will not.
And what happens then? Asked about May's statement that "no deal is better than a bad deal" 48% of the public agree, compared to 17% who would rather have a bad deal than no deal at all. 55% of people said that May should be prepared to walk away.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/public-back-brexit-plan-think-eu-will-nix-it/
Also, if Labour does lose one or both seats then the results will not be compounded by the anticipated failure in the local Government elections, as would occur if they were deferred until May. The potential for embarrassment in England is limited: the Manchester and Liverpool metro-mayoral votes look so safe that even Corbyn Labour would be hard-pressed to lose them, albeit that the Tories fancy their chances in the West Midlands; and the vast bulk of the shire councils are unfavourable to Labour already. However, Labour is virtually guaranteed to be massacred in Scotland, and could also suffer significant reversals in Wales.
The rumours from Copeland sound entirely plausible, but I think the Tories will win that one so this might just be a case of confirmation bias on my part.
Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of the second largest parliamentary group and, apparently, the single most popular party (measured by membership) in the UK and he has neither updated his views nor engaged with those of others for more than thirty years.
Under such circumstances, the cussedness of the British personality is liable to come to the fore, causing support for the Government to strengthen.
The former claim won't be true until 2022 and there's no guarantee the Dem's are locked in for 2020 which the latter needs.
The gap in the public finances could be plugged by a combination of spending cuts, and increases in property taxes. This might cause the ever-inflating property market to cool, which is not necessarily to the taste of a party that likes to keep elements of its core vote happy with continually rising house prices, but needs must - and it's certainly more palatable than raiding the cash benefits paid to the aged, which they must treat as sacrosanct.
@Philip_Thompson I think it's about who Trump has appointed. Theresa May shouldn't have to jostle with Nigel Farage over who influences Trump the most.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4141602/Lies-migrant-affair-Care4Calais-boss.html
Its quite some story...including claims that the charity were made aware of this a long time ago.
It has been a momentus day with so much controversy that you have to pinch yourself to see if this is really happening.
Those on the left must be distraught and those on the right overjoyed
However the majority will be somewhere in the middle which I would suggest is a kind of uneasiness at how today will translate for peace and trade in the future.
Let's all hope that sense prevails on all sides
Good night and my best wishes to all posters no matter which side of the arguments you are on.
Theresa May is just playing at politics, and her top priority is her own image and her own political future.
I have no idea how Trump will want to play it. But buy American, hire American suggests that you wouldn't want any kind of a deal at all?
Surrounded by all of his killing men.
Telling us who, why, where and when,
President Kill wants killing again.
Hooray, ring out the bells,
King Conscience is dead.
Hooray, now back in your cells,
We've President Kill instead.
Here comes President Kill again.
Broadcasting from his killing den.
Dressed in pounds and dollars and yen,
President Kill wants killing again.
Hooray, hang out the flags,
Queen Caring is dead.
Hooray, we'll stack body bags,
For President Kill instead.
Ain't democracy wonderful?
Them Russians can't win!
Ain't democracy wonderful?
Lets us vote someone like that in.
Here comes President Kill again,
From pure White House to Number 10.
Taking lives with a smoking pen,
President Kill wants killing again.
Hooray, everything's great,
Now President Kill is dead.
Hooray, I'll bet you can't wait,
To vote for President Kill instead...
US House delegations:
CA: 53 (39 Dem, 14 GOP)
WA: 10 (6 Dem, 4 GOP)
OR: 5 (4 Dem, 1 GOP)
AZ: 9 (4 Dem, 5 GOP)
CO: 7 (3 Dems, 4 GOP)
NM: 3 (2 Dem, 1 GOP)
NV: 4 (3 Dem, 1 GOP)
So if the Dems absolutely sweep the all the above West, they pick up 30 seats. Admittedly, that is more than the 24 they need.
But in the real world, that is simply not going to happen. Most of the remaining GOP seats in the states are pretty safe. Picking up 1/3 of the GOP seats in the above states would be a great outing, but would only give them 10.
http://media.nbcnewyork.com/images/620*413/GettyImages-632223148.jpg
http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/the-clinton-foundation-is-dead-but-the-case-against-hillary-isnt/
Remember folks, you heard it here first, exactly four years before his inauguration!
DYOR.
CA = 7
WA = 2
OR = 0
AZ = 2
CO = 1
NM = 0
NV = 0
So Dem pickup of 12 in the West.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12009844/Labour-support-at-ballot-box-could-be-halved-at-Oldham-by-election-polling-suggests.html
We all know how that turned out of course.
* But we are transferring power from Washington D.C. and giving it back to you... the people. For too long a small group in our nation’s capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have born the cost.
* We take Gotham from the corrupt. The rich. The oppressors of generations who've kept you down with the myth of opportunity. And we give it to you, the people...
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/copeland-by-election/winner
1. outside the Beltway
2. Young
3. Centrist.
Warren scores 0/3.
I'm not rushing to take the 12-1 on her.
That said, if the expectation management is anticipating losing a seat held since 1935 to the government in a by-election, that alone says quite a lot.
There will be a yearning for someone like Ike after a rollercoaster four years.
They're drawn to Trump because he a) has power and b) tells them their fears are true. That trumps any ideological conviction they may otherwise hold.
Re Warren, I agree with PfP: if she really wanted it, she should have run this time and her age will count against her. That said, what's in a party's best interests and what a party does are two different things. Even so, I don't think she'll run and if she does, I don't think she'll get it.
"Because I have one of the greatest jobs in the solar system. As long as the Trumpinium keeps flowing, I can do anything I want. Anything! In fact, the only thing I worry about is, one day, if the Democrats win, it all might end."
However, I am keen in leaked canvassing. Of all the predictors in UK elections, leaked canvasses (months out), postal vote sampling (weeks out) and vote verification (minutes out) are to my mind the most promising. So discussion of same is interesting to me.