I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
And turnout
And turnout will fall in Copeland too
So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
Are you illiterate? It says the share of support is down by a third and that the vote share is expected to be down in the thirties.
The Conservatives support wasn't down in Sleaford, just their turnout. Turnout will combine with less support not mitigate it in Copeland.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
No I am not illiterate , just a bit more wary of fake news than you are .
More likely to be Labour expectation management, no? Make an opposition hold into some sort of triumph?
I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
And turnout
And turnout will fall in Copeland too
So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
Down a third in terms of share of vote, or absolute number?
Ask the Telegraph - LOL .
If it was absolute number and turnout does go down by half (typical for by elections?) they would trounce the Tories. Given the story is about them potentially losing the seat, I don't think that is the case.
I doubt whether there is much truth in the story , much more like awful expectation management on behalf of the Conservatives .
On present polling Copeland is neck and neck between the Tories and Labour
I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
And turnout
And turnout will fall in Copeland too
So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
Are you illiterate? It says the share of support is down by a third and that the vote share is expected to be down in the thirties.
The Conservatives support wasn't down in Sleaford, just their turnout. Turnout will combine with less support not mitigate it in Copeland.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
No I am not illiterate , just a bit more wary of fake news than you are .
What part do you think is fake?
Probably all of it . I would think it doubtful the Telegraph has any access to Labour's detailed canvass returns in Copeland .;
It's unfair to call people 'illiterate' just because they disagree with you. Far too many political exchanges on this site involve insults when it's quite unnecessary.
I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
And turnout
And turnout will fall in Copeland too
So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
Are you illiterate? It says the share of support is down by a third and that the vote share is expected to be down in the thirties.
The Conservatives support wasn't down in Sleaford, just their turnout. Turnout will combine with less support not mitigate it in Copeland.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
No I am not illiterate , just a bit more wary of fake news than you are .
Claiming the story is fake is one thing, time may tell.
Claiming that vote share down a third means they'll win if another parties vote total is down by half is something completely else. You can't justify that.
It has been rumoured that Theresa May will be going to the US in February. If the by elections are on the 23rd February it would be very bad news for labour if the dates coincide
Do you not think a win in Copeland, a close call (or win) in Stoke would motivate the Tories to go in for the kill.....
It has been rumoured that Theresa May will be going to the US in February. If the by elections are on the 23rd February it would be very bad news for labour if the dates coincide
Do you not think a win in Copeland, a close call (or win) in Stoke would motivate the Tories to go in for the kill.....
in for the kill = early election? I doubt it. We are still too close to the "snap election" May referred to. She'd rather keep an election in her pocket if negotiations go badly.
It's unfair to call people 'illiterate' just because they disagree with you. Far too many political exchanges on this site involve insults when it's quite unnecessary.
I'm sorry if Mark is offended but the article (and repeated posters) said share and he kept repeating it as vote total which means something completely different. I used a strong word to emphasise the point and far worse is said regularly but I don't want to cause offence so sorry if it was taken.
I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
And turnout
And turnout will fall in Copeland too
So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
Are you illiterate? It says the share of support is down by a third and that the vote share is expected to be down in the thirties.
The Conservatives support wasn't down in Sleaford, just their turnout. Turnout will combine with less support not mitigate it in Copeland.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
No I am not illiterate , just a bit more wary of fake news than you are .
More likely to be Labour expectation management, no? Make an opposition hold into some sort of triumph?
Considering the source of the article is said to be Labour canvass returns that's far more likely than it being Tory expectation management.
It's unfair to call people 'illiterate' just because they disagree with you. Far too many political exchanges on this site involve insults when it's quite unnecessary.
I'm sorry if Mark is offended but the article (and repeated posters) said share and he kept repeating it as vote total which means something completely different. I used a strong word to emphasise the point and far worse is said regularly but I don't want to cause offence so sorry if it was taken.
I wasn't offended, I just thought I'd speak on it because of personal experiences on this site of having people hurl insults (which are far worse than what you said) at me.
How utterly depressing. That quite possibly means the end of the Paris Climate Agreement and, with it, the last real change of limiting carbon emissions. If you want your descendants to inherit the family home, best make sure it's on high ground!
Good. Climate change is economic voodoo. We will adapt. The best periods for life on earth - a provable fact in terms of species variety - have been the warmer periods.
There's a small, but not completely negligible, chance that burning all accessible fossil fuels will turn the Earth into another Venus. Our descendants may have some difficulties adapting to that.
during the carboniferous period co2 levels were 1800ppm almost 5 times more than now, if we were going to turn into venus we would have already done so
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
It has been rumoured that Theresa May will be going to the US in February. If the by elections are on the 23rd February it would be very bad news for labour if the dates coincide
Do you not think a win in Copeland, a close call (or win) in Stoke would motivate the Tories to go in for the kill.....
It would depend. I do not think Theresa May will call an election unless she is unable to serve A50 or the HOL causes a delay.
The Country does not want one and neither does she
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
"It would be easy to blame Jeremy Corbyn for losing the heartlands, but it would be wrong. This quiet crisis predates his leadership by decades.
"Corbyn, says the Labour pollster James Morris, is not the source of the party’s problem, but rather the final straw for voters who were already losing patience. ‘From the point of view of someone who lives on an estate in Hull, his utopian, cosmopolitan, internationalist, anti-military non–patriotic beliefs are all what they already think of the Labour party. Ed Miliband had his own problems, but he wasn’t the personification of everything that was wrong with the Labour party and none of the good things.’
"Morris and others have conducted focus groups in constituencies across the party’s heartlands and have found voters running out of reasons to stay with Labour. ‘The only thing that is propping up the party is a social norm, and if that cracks, then it becomes a snowball, and that’s what happened in Scotland,’ says Morris. Another source working with MPs frets that he cannot see the floor to the Labour vote any more. In Copeland, it is retaining voters from the general election at a rate of 65 per cent — in the Oldham vote, that rate was around 80 per cent. Labour once believed voters in Scotland would always stay loyal. After the 2014 referendum, that assumption was proved wrong. Now its MPs are beginning to worry the same will happen in northern England and the Midlands."
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
A bit too early I think for the funeral party........DJT has shown the way for the left; gloves off, unabashed...and not I repeat NOT, talking about minorities, sexuality or migrants and how horrible Brexit or GOP....a starter for ten....
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was a labour supporter the thought the conservatives could win the seat by thousands would put me in despair
I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
/blockquote>
I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
And turnout
And turnout will fall in Copeland too
So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
Are you illiterate? It says the share of support is down by a third and that the vote share is expected to be down in the thirties.
The Conservatives support wasn't down in Sleaford, just their turnout. Turnout will combine with less support not mitigate it in Copeland.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
No I am not illiterate , just a bit more wary of fake news than you are .
Claiming the story is fake is one thing, time may tell.
Claiming that vote share down a third means they'll win if another parties vote total is down by half is something completely else. You can't justify that.
But Labour's vote share was 42% there in 2015. Knocking a third off that would put Labour on 28% - not the low 30s
It has been rumoured that Theresa May will be going to the US in February. If the by elections are on the 23rd February it would be very bad news for labour if the dates coincide
Do you not think a win in Copeland, a close call (or win) in Stoke would motivate the Tories to go in for the kill.....
It would depend. I do not think Theresa May will call an election unless she is unable to serve A50 or the HOL causes a delay.
The Country does not want one and neither does she
I think you are right in your opinion, but very short termist.... I do genuinely think that May would find a large majority and a five year mandate incredibly helpful. What is she going to lose? Seriously? She could turn a GE around in a couple of months next year around the May elections which will be disruptive anyhow.. Very, very tempting.....
If I was close to her, I would be that little devil on her shoulder saying go for it
The Copeland by-election appears certain to be won by either Labour or the Tories. Placing a combination bet on both these parties at the prevailing odds, provides an opportunity to make a 15.83% return over the coming weeks, whichever is the victor:
Stake 35.64% on Labour at 3.25 with BetFred. Stake 64.36% on the Tories at 1.80 with Hills, Betway or Boylesports.
DYOR and check those odds carefully which are subject to change at any time.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was a labour supporter the thought the conservatives could win the seat by thousands would put me in despair
I have been in utter despair since Corbyn's 2016 election and ever since.....Copeland would be like a very welcome mercy killing......
The Copeland by-election appears certain to be won by either Labour or the Tories. Placing a combination bet on both these parties at the prevailing odds, provides an opportunity to make a 15.83% return over the coming weeks, whichever is the victor:
Stake 35.64% on Labour at 3.25 with BetFred. Stake 64 .36% on the Tories at 1.80 with Hills, Betway or Boylesports.
DYOR and check those odds carefully which are subject to change at any time.
Hah I am on this bet effectively, for almost 2k lol
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was a labour supporter the thought the conservatives could win the seat by thousands would put me in despair
I have been in utter despair since Corbyn's 2016 election and ever since.....Copeland would be like a very welcome mercy killing......
I've been in utter despair ever since Ed Miliband got elected Labour leader in September 2010.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was a labour supporter the thought the conservatives could win the seat by thousands would put me in despair
I have been in utter despair since Corbyn's 2016 election and ever since.....Copeland would be like a very welcome mercy killing......
I've been in utter despair ever since Ed Miliband got elected Labour leader in September 2010.
This is getting like the YorkshireMan's Python sketch...but I've been in utter despair since Gordon Brown's coronation in 2008, so there......
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was a labour supporter the thought the conservatives could win the seat by thousands would put me in despair
I have been in utter despair since Corbyn's 2016 election and ever since.....Copeland would be like a very welcome mercy killing......
I've been in utter despair ever since Ed Miliband got elected Labour leader in September 2010.
This is getting like the YorkshireMan's Python sketch...but I've been in utter despair since Gordon Brown's coronation in 2008, so there......
You win. When Blair went into Iraq I was 10/11 years old. So yeah, I wasn't really interested in politics at that age....
I suspect serious canvassing will only have started in Copeland in the last week or so, so I doubt the accuracy of this story.That's not to say the the Tories will not win.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was a labour supporter the thought the conservatives could win the seat by thousands would put me in despair
I have been in utter despair since Corbyn's 2016 election and ever since.....Copeland would be like a very welcome mercy killing......
I've been in utter despair ever since Ed Miliband got elected Labour leader in September 2010.
This is getting like the YorkshireMan's Python sketch...but I've been in utter despair since Gordon Brown's coronation in 2008, so there......
@GeorgeTakei: The peaceful transfer of power is a thing of beauty. One moment Barack Obama is leader of the Free World. A moment later it's Angela Merkel.
It has been rumoured that Theresa May will be going to the US in February. If the by elections are on the 23rd February it would be very bad news for labour if the dates coincide
Do you not think a win in Copeland, a close call (or win) in Stoke would motivate the Tories to go in for the kill.....
It would depend. I do not think Theresa May will call an election unless she is unable to serve A50 or the HOL causes a delay.
The Country does not want one and neither does she
I think you are right in your opinion, but very short termist.... I do genuinely think that May would find a large majority and a five year mandate incredibly helpful. What is she going to lose? Seriously? She could turn a GE around in a couple of months next year around the May elections which will be disruptive anyhow.. Very, very tempting.....
If I was close to her, I would be that little devil on her shoulder saying go for it
To be honest Tyson she believes in doing the right thing and the right thing is to stand by her word and not call at GE unless A50 is threatened.
I believe that the Nation appreciates a politician who puts the Country first rather than political calculations
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was a labour supporter the thought the conservatives could win the seat by thousands would put me in despair
Can you not grasp that many Labour supporters want a bad result to get rid of Corbyn? I am convinced he will not lead Labour into the next GE and Tory strategy appears to be resting rather complacently on the assumption that he will.
Is it really credible that the Tories might win it? That would be a hell of a coup.
It occurs to me that this is a terrible prospect, Labour might actually do something about Corbyn. Boris needs to say something very rude about Merkel ASAP.
Copeland - the one thing, the only thing, Corbyn Labour has been good at is expectation management; so handle the vote story with extreme care. If Labour does lose, though, it would be beyond catastrophic for the leadership and the party as a whole.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was a labour supporter the thought the conservatives could win the seat by thousands would put me in despair
I have been in utter despair since Corbyn's 2016 election and ever since.....Copeland would be like a very welcome mercy killing......
Well only if it brought labour to it's senses but how do you get him out - Miliband was not only a loser but his £3 membership ruse sounded the end of labour as we know it
Copeland - the one thing, the only thing, Corbyn Labour has been good at is expectation management; so handle the vote story with extreme care. If Labour does lose, though, it would be beyond catastrophic for the leadership and the party as a whole.
but it would be very, very funny.
However, it would be no bad thing if Corbyn was defenestrated soon afterwards.
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was a labour supporter the thought the conservatives could win the seat by thousands would put me in despair
Can you not grasp that many Labour supporters want a bad result to get rid of Corbyn? I am convinced he will not lead Labour into the next GE and Tory strategy appears to be resting rather complacently on the assumption that he will.
I heard one Blairite saying as much, in private, just recently. They may be keeping their head down but that doesn't mean they have stopped wishing for Corbyn to fail.
@GeorgeTakei: The peaceful transfer of power is a thing of beauty. One moment Barack Obama is leader of the Free World. A moment later it's Angela Merkel.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
35% lost of 42.3% would not keep them in the low 30s unless they expect the vote to be down for other parties too.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
35% lost of 42.3% would not keep them in the low 30s unless they expect the vote to be down for other parties too.
Yes, they're clearly making assumptions about turnout being down. It will be, but by how much?
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
"I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own."
Might I suggest people use Twitter and create from it what they want. My own Twitter feed has very little politics but quite a lot about history, sheep (including sheep dogs), cats, some military/naval stuff, free ranged versus all year round housed dairy cows, and of course Llamas. All sorts of different opinions being expressed about all those thing some of which I agree with and some I do not.
If some people want to use Twitter as an echo chamber for their political views, well why not? It is probably no worse than only reading one newspaper and claiming to be well informed on current affairs.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
I'm hoping the Democrats do very well in 2018. The thing is with twitter, it's that a home for both the extreme left and the extreme right. I've seen many of those belonging to the hard-right on twitter. I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own.
It is no secret that the biggest political users of Twitter in the UK are Corbynistas, Cybernats and Kippers
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
"I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own."
....
If some people want to use Twitter as an echo chamber for their political views, well why not? It is probably no worse than only reading one newspaper and claiming to be well informed on current affairs.
I think the trouble comes when those people want to be involved in politics. If you start getting involved in politics then you can't live in an echo chamber - you have to confront views which may differ from your own.
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
If Trump moves to engage in competitive tax cutting for businesses, then the G20 agreement on the subject made at Antalya is toast. This is very relevant as the German finance minister has been warning Britain not to engage in the competitive cutting of corporation tax, based on the fact that we signed up to this agreement.
An important diplomatic barrier to Britain doing the same thing would therefore be removed. Could come in very handy if the EU chooses to play hardball over trade - in fact, could come in very handy in any event.
As Philip Hammond recently said, Britain follows the European social model but is toward the American end of it. We also have a centre-right Government facing a very weak Opposition. If compelled to do so, we have a lot more political room to hack away at social spending, in order to fund aggressive tax cuts, than is the case in most Continental European societies. Under adverse circumstances, the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
I'm surprised there appears to be no betting market on the date (i.e. year) when Corbyn ceases to be Labour Leader ..... perhaps Shadsy would oblige with one of his specials.
Were Labour to lose Copeland, then I would expect 2017 to edge it as favourite at around 2/1. Other years might be something along the lines of: 2018: 4/1, 2019: 3/1, 2020 or later: 5/2.
Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was a labour supporter the thought the conservatives could win the seat by thousands would put me in despair
I have been in utter despair since Corbyn's 2016 election and ever since.....Copeland would be like a very welcome mercy killing......
Well only if it brought labour to it's senses but how do you get him out - Miliband was not only a loser but his £3 membership ruse sounded the end of labour as we know it
Corbyn has a mandate from members, doubt they will care if the Tories win Copeland especially as Labour are still likely to hold Stoke on the same day
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
"I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own."
....
If some people want to use Twitter as an echo chamber for their political views, well why not? It is probably no worse than only reading one newspaper and claiming to be well informed on current affairs.
I think the trouble comes when those people want to be involved in politics. If you start getting involved in politics then you can't live in an echo chamber - you have to confront views which may differ from your own.
What on earth gives you that idea? Look at Jeremy Corbyn, as a starter for ten.
Copeland - the one thing, the only thing, Corbyn Labour has been good at is expectation management; so handle the vote story with extreme care. If Labour does lose, though, it would be beyond catastrophic for the leadership and the party as a whole.
The wording of the quotes suggests a source with a definite anti-Corbyn view himself, but the selection of an anti-Corbyn pro-nuclear candidate makes that line of thought more difficult to sustain. I have no direct information but it's too early to call it accurately.
I'm surprised there appears to be no betting market on the date (i.e. year) when Corbyn ceases to be Labour Leader ..... perhaps Shadsy would oblige with one of his specials.
Were Labour to lose Copeland, then I would expect 2017 to edge it as favourite at around 2/1. Other years might be something along the lines of: 2018: 4/1, 2019: 3/1, 2020 or later: 5/2.
@tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
Twitter has killed the Labour and the Democrat party. Both are now ghettoised - mentally, not physically.
The far left have been around long before twitter. I also don't think the Democrat party have been 'killed'. I expect the Democrats to actually be a decent opposition - not in the least because Schumer is a fairly reasonable guy, unlike Corbyn.
Just my two cents.
Obama won in 2012 despite Twitter. Ironically losing the White House is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats and gives tham a chance in 2018 of taking Congress they would not have had under President Hillary. By contrast Trump's win was great for him but may be less so for the GOP
"I think twitter in general is just a home for those who don't want to hear any opinion which challenges their own."
....
If some people want to use Twitter as an echo chamber for their political views, well why not? It is probably no worse than only reading one newspaper and claiming to be well informed on current affairs.
I think the trouble comes when those people want to be involved in politics. If you start getting involved in politics then you can't live in an echo chamber - you have to confront views which may differ from your own.
What on earth gives you that idea? Look at Jeremy Corbyn, as a starter for ten.
That's exactly my point. Because people like Corbyn want to live in an echo chamber it's a total disaster for the left.
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
If Trump moves to engage in competitive tax cutting for businesses, then the G20 agreement on the subject made at Antalya is toast. This is very relevant as the German finance minister has been warning Britain not to engage in the competitive cutting of corporation tax, based on the fact that we signed up to this agreement.
An important diplomatic barrier to Britain doing the same thing would therefore be removed. Could come in very handy if the EU chooses to play hardball over trade - in fact, could come in very handy in any event.
As Philip Hammond recently said, Britain follows the European social model but is toward the American end of it. We also have a centre-right Government facing a very weak Opposition. If compelled to do so, we have a lot more political room to hack away at social spending, in order to fund aggressive tax cuts, than is the case in most Continental European societies. Under adverse circumstances, the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
Beyond corporation tax I don't think tax cuts will be that radical but that cut could be crucial in keeping investment here
Copeland - the one thing, the only thing, Corbyn Labour has been good at is expectation management; so handle the vote story with extreme care. If Labour does lose, though, it would be beyond catastrophic for the leadership and the party as a whole.
The wording of the quotes suggests a source with a definite anti-Corbyn view himself, but the selection of an anti-Corbyn pro-nuclear candidate makes that line of thought more difficult to sustain. I have no direct information but it's too early to call it accurately.
If compelled to do so, we have a lot more political room to hack away at social spending, in order to fund aggressive tax cuts, than is the case in most Continental European societies. Under adverse circumstances, the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
How utterly depressing. That quite possibly means the end of the Paris Climate Agreement and, with it, the last real change of limiting carbon emissions. If you want your descendants to inherit the family home, best make sure it's on high ground!
Good. Climate change is economic voodoo. We will adapt. The best periods for life on earth - a provable fact in terms of species variety - have been the warmer periods.
There's a small, but not completely negligible, chance that burning all accessible fossil fuels will turn the Earth into another Venus. Our descendants may have some difficulties adapting to that.
during the carboniferous period co2 levels were 1800ppm almost 5 times more than now, if we were going to turn into venus we would have already done so
Nope, because the sun was a bit dimmer in those days.
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
If Trump moves to engage in competitive tax cutting for businesses, then the G20 agreement on the subject made at Antalya is toast. This is very relevant as the German finance minister has been warning Britain not to engage in the competitive cutting of corporation tax, based on the fact that we signed up to this agreement.
An important diplomatic barrier to Britain doing the same thing would therefore be removed. Could come in very handy if the EU chooses to play hardball over trade - in fact, could come in very handy in any event.
As Philip Hammond recently said, Britain follows the European social model but is toward the American end of it. We also have a centre-right Government facing a very weak Opposition. If compelled to do so, we have a lot more political room to hack away at social spending, in order to fund aggressive tax cuts, than is the case in most Continental European societies. Under adverse circumstances, the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
Beyond corporation tax I don't think tax cuts will be that radical but that cut could be crucial in keeping investment here
@GeorgeTakei: The peaceful transfer of power is a thing of beauty. One moment Barack Obama is leader of the Free World. A moment later it's Angela Merkel.
Merkel just lost out to Theresa May
Have to say, whatever his politics, Takei is consistently funny. Shame they did not use this to greater effect on Star Trek.
Comments
Claiming that vote share down a third means they'll win if another parties vote total is down by half is something completely else. You can't justify that.
Despite BrexitDo you believe political leaks don't happen? I'd like to sell you a bridge if so (if that language isn't too offensive).
The Country does not want one and neither does she
Just my two cents.
"It would be easy to blame Jeremy Corbyn for losing the heartlands, but it would be wrong. This quiet crisis predates his leadership by decades.
"Corbyn, says the Labour pollster James Morris, is not the source of the party’s problem, but rather the final straw for voters who were already losing patience. ‘From the point of view of someone who lives on an estate in Hull, his utopian, cosmopolitan, internationalist, anti-military non–patriotic beliefs are all what they already think of the Labour party. Ed Miliband had his own problems, but he wasn’t the personification of everything that was wrong with the Labour party and none of the good things.’
"Morris and others have conducted focus groups in constituencies across the party’s heartlands and have found voters running out of reasons to stay with Labour. ‘The only thing that is propping up the party is a social norm, and if that cracks, then it becomes a snowball, and that’s what happened in Scotland,’ says Morris. Another source working with MPs frets that he cannot see the floor to the Labour vote any more. In Copeland, it is retaining voters from the general election at a rate of 65 per cent — in the Oldham vote, that rate was around 80 per cent. Labour once believed voters in Scotland would always stay loyal. After the 2014 referendum, that assumption was proved wrong. Now its MPs are beginning to worry the same will happen in northern England and the Midlands."
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
Labour won the seat with 42.3% of the vote, so I'd suggest the 35% figure is a percentage and not a percentage point figure. Otherwise they'd be looking at a single digit vote share!
If I was close to her, I would be that little devil on her shoulder saying go for it
The Copeland by-election appears certain to be won by either Labour or the Tories. Placing a combination bet on both these parties at the prevailing odds, provides an opportunity to make a 15.83% return over the coming weeks, whichever is the victor:
Stake 35.64% on Labour at 3.25 with BetFred.
Stake 64.36% on the Tories at 1.80 with Hills, Betway or Boylesports.
DYOR and check those odds carefully which are subject to change at any time.
US prosecutors want an order to seize $14bn (£11.3bn) of his assets.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38696925
No not Trump, he isn't that rich (or a criminal...this one just for the lawyers, waves)...."El Chapo"
Ummm
@elliotttimes: Exc Theresa May lining up trip to Washington on Thursday - only Netanyahu ahead in the queue. twitter.com/hendopolis/sta…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/front_page/1207748.stm
I should probably be more grateful to Gordon Brown, that move must have earnt me at least a grand.
@GeorgeTakei: The peaceful transfer of power is a thing of beauty. One moment Barack Obama is leader of the Free World. A moment later it's Angela Merkel.
I believe that the Nation appreciates a politician who puts the Country first rather than political calculations
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/822570102952513536
http://www.al.com/news/anniston-gadsden/index.ssf/2017/01/talladega_college_band_donatio.html
However, it would be no bad thing if Corbyn was defenestrated soon afterwards.
The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/bringing-back-jobs-and-growth
Your fanboi routine gets funnier every day
Applaud (sic)
PS - my wife has always accused me of being a stirrer and gave me the biggest spoon she could find for my 60th
Not that I disagree about not trusting this story, it is clearly Labour expectation management.
If some people want to use Twitter as an echo chamber for their political views, well why not? It is probably no worse than only reading one newspaper and claiming to be well informed on current affairs.
https://twitter.com/MsHustlee/status/822516007352893441
An important diplomatic barrier to Britain doing the same thing would therefore be removed. Could come in very handy if the EU chooses to play hardball over trade - in fact, could come in very handy in any event.
As Philip Hammond recently said, Britain follows the European social model but is toward the American end of it. We also have a centre-right Government facing a very weak Opposition. If compelled to do so, we have a lot more political room to hack away at social spending, in order to fund aggressive tax cuts, than is the case in most Continental European societies. Under adverse circumstances, the Government should be reasonably successful in deflecting the blame for any unpopular cuts, by invoking the doctrine of necessity in the face of EU intransigence.
Were Labour to lose Copeland, then I would expect 2017 to edge it as favourite at around 2/1. Other years might be something along the lines of: 2018: 4/1, 2019: 3/1, 2020 or later: 5/2.
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/photo/1