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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour chooses a Corbyn critic to fight Copeland and this and

SystemSystem Posts: 12,264
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour chooses a Corbyn critic to fight Copeland and this and the Stoke Central by-elections could be next month

Labour candidate for Copeland by-election is not a massive fan of Jeremy Corbyn. pic.twitter.com/0EP91ycFjw

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    What? No comments yet?
  • JenSJenS Posts: 91
    If Labour do badly, Corbynistas will blame the candidate. If they do well, Corbyn will take the credit.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Polly on Newsnight whingeing about the incoming Trump. This gives me hope!
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Mortimer said:

    Polly on Newsnight whingeing about the incoming Trump. This gives me hope!

    Who do they have as counterweight? Or couldn't they find anybody as blinkered as she is?
  • Mortimer said:

    Polly on Newsnight whingeing about the incoming Trump. This gives me hope!

    Never heard her not whingeing - the strange thing is everyone is writing Trump off with no upside but what if he confounds everybody and becomes a great US President. Does not seem likely but no one knows.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    weejonnie said:

    Mortimer said:

    Polly on Newsnight whingeing about the incoming Trump. This gives me hope!

    Who do they have as counterweight? Or couldn't they find anybody as blinkered as she is?
    Nigel Farage, come on down!!!
  • Mortimer said:

    weejonnie said:

    Mortimer said:

    Polly on Newsnight whingeing about the incoming Trump. This gives me hope!

    Who do they have as counterweight? Or couldn't they find anybody as blinkered as she is?
    Nigel Farage, come on down!!!
    He's in the US
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    weejonnie said:

    Mortimer said:

    Polly on Newsnight whingeing about the incoming Trump. This gives me hope!

    Who do they have as counterweight? Or couldn't they find anybody as blinkered as she is?
    Nigel Farage, come on down!!!
    He's in the US
    I guess so, it was recorded.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Emily Thornberry on QT saying EU migrants come over here, live 10 to a house, undercut the natives etc etc

    Hope the cheques in the post!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Bromsgrove Norton Conservative hold bur 12% swing to Labour

    Con 219
    Lab 186
    UKIP 82
    Green 20
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Honest question: views on Chris Grayling. I've never really been a fan...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Bromsgrove Norton Conservative hold bur 12% swing to Labour

    Con 219
    Lab 186
    UKIP 82
    Green 20

    Another low turnout yawn in my Pa's old patch. Next!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited January 2017
    Thornberry really doesn't get Qt does she. Not talking over the Chair or questioners is quite basic...
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    Decent result in Bromsgrove for Labour considering opinion polls. Suggest Tory vote vulnerable against solid opposition.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Lionel Shriver is brilliant, OTOH.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606

    Bromsgrove Norton Conservative hold bur 12% swing to Labour

    Con 219
    Lab 186
    UKIP 82
    Green 20

    Yes, decent for Labour for a change. I think you have suggested before that Tory vote may be a bit weak, despite opinion polls saying otherwise. I think you may be right.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Mortimer said:

    Thornberry really doesn't get Qt does she. Not talking over the Chair or questioners is quite basic...

    She just accused Morgan of misquoting her when all he did was quote her
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Isn't one of the great things about the EU that it enables youngsters to work abroad?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2017
    On topic:

    I rather like Gillian Troughton's politics, and they seem not too far from my own, or Tim Farron for that matter!

    I don't think it is so much that the 5 Labour candidates are anti Corbyn, but rather that all the 5 were genuinely local longstanding activists with local roots. These are the people that outperform the national party, as we also see in Bromsgrove tonight too.

    This bodes well for the Labour party in the long run. Corbyn is allowing the grass roots to thrive, and deliberately so. He is killing the Spadocracy.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.

    Agreed. The hunt for drama is strong in Copeland, when all that has happened is the members who liked Jamie Reed have chosen a similar (in some ways) candidate to fight his seat.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.

    And he is quite quick in his congratulations, just as she was to him at the party conference:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/822200313478336512
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Without remotely doubting your veracity I have to say that I find it difficult to believe that there is not more than a simple Brexit story behind this. Surely you either want Portuguese speakers or English speakers in a call centre? And whichever you want determines which country you operate in, and you have no real use for immigrant labour in the way that say fruit growers do?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    isam said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Isn't one of the great things about the EU that it enables youngsters to work abroad? </blockquote

    Yes, one of the great things that will be lost to youngsters forevef.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Well, Portuguese is the world language.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Isn't one of the great things about the EU that it enables youngsters to work abroad?
    I'm welling up!

    I'm sure they can employ her in Portugal if she'll go
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    Bromsgrove Norton Conservative hold bur 12% swing to Labour

    Con 219
    Lab 186
    UKIP 82
    Green 20

    No UKIP candidate last time
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    An interesting proposal http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-38669588 not sure it will quite work though as very expensive drugs for which there are a handful of cases (Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome for example) will get through, but those cheaper drugs for which there are large numbers of cases (new antiretrovirals for HIV, or hepatitis for example) will not.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Mortimer said:

    Honest question: views on Chris Grayling. I've never really been a fan...

    Grayling is a prize arse in a government not short of them. Toss up between him and IDS as to who is the bigger.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2017
    chestnut said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Well, Portuguese is the world language.

    Sixth biggest in the world, 3 places behind English.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,767
    isam said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Isn't one of the great things about the EU that it enables youngsters to work abroad?
    Well, the one thing that both the UK and EU governments (so to speak) are agreed on is that both are currently pursuing policies to increase the number of jobs in the EU...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:
    aimed at anyone in particular?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,767
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Without remotely doubting your veracity I have to say that I find it difficult to believe that there is not more than a simple Brexit story behind this. Surely you either want Portuguese speakers or English speakers in a call centre? And whichever you want determines which country you operate in, and you have no real use for immigrant labour in the way that say fruit growers do?
    You're assuming that there are no English speakers in Lisbon
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017

    isam said:
    aimed at anyone in particular?
    A twitter person who has announced he won't be tweeting tmrw in protest at trump and in sympathy w Hillary... the link I provided seems to have been thrown down the memory hole
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,767
    Mortimer said:

    Honest question: views on Chris Grayling. I've never really been a fan...

    Best Homer Simpson impersonator evah...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    isam said:
    aimed at anyone in particular?
    A twitter person who has announced he won't be tweeting tmrw in protest at trump and in sympathy w Hillary... the link I provided seems to have been thrown down the memory hole
    How will we cope!!?
  • Today is the day the left go into collective grief.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:
    aimed at anyone in particular?
    A twitter person who has announced he won't be tweeting tmrw in protest at trump and in sympathy w Hillary... the link I provided seems to have been thrown down the memory hole
    How will we cope!!?
    I know! What a... wally!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2017

    Today is the day the left go into collective grief.

    Not me sunshine! its popcorn time watching the Trumpsters jig around his mood swings as he trashes his own policies. America will be a laughing stock.

    Swamp the Drain!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Absolutely brilliant!!!

    The SNP bloke on this week just said that, as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain, the SNP would vote against a50 to reflect the wishes of their constituents

    Then in the next breath he said he hoped labour MPs would 'develop a backbone' & vote against it... not reflecting the wishes of their constituents!!! Classic stuff
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    The American Dan Hodges?

    マイル Retweeted
    Frank Luntz
    Nov 8
    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz
    In case I wasn't clear enough from my previous tweets:

    Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. #ElectionNight
  • isam said:

    Absolutely brilliant!!!

    The SNP bloke on this week just said that, as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain, the SNP would vote against a50 to reflect the wishes of their constituents

    Then in the next breath he said he hoped labour MPs would 'develop a backbone' & vote against it... not reflecting the wishes of their constituents!!! Classic stuff

    Did all Labour constituencies vote leave? I hadn't realised.
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    Troughton's an ex-hospital doctor and St John's ambulance driver, she describes her husband as "in the nuclear supply chain" - seems to tick all the boxes. Labour will be campaigning on the NHS, the NHS and the NHS, and not much else. Definitely tipped the odds in their favour.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017

    isam said:

    Absolutely brilliant!!!

    The SNP bloke on this week just said that, as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain, the SNP would vote against a50 to reflect the wishes of their constituents

    Then in the next breath he said he hoped labour MPs would 'develop a backbone' & vote against it... not reflecting the wishes of their constituents!!! Classic stuff

    Did all Labour constituencies vote leave? I hadn't realised.
    No, but, to defeat the bill, MPs whose constituencies voted Leave would have to vote it down, & that's what he called for, having justified his own party voting it down by 'reflecting the wishes of their constituents'

    Jess Phillips immediately pulled him up and he had no answer

    I'm sure you knew that xxxx
  • isam said:

    Absolutely brilliant!!!

    The SNP bloke on this week just said that, as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain, the SNP would vote against a50 to reflect the wishes of their constituents

    Then in the next breath he said he hoped labour MPs would 'develop a backbone' & vote against it... not reflecting the wishes of their constituents!!! Classic stuff

    Did all Labour constituencies vote leave? I hadn't realised.
    Video invite, hun!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548

    Today is the day the left go into collective grief.

    Not sure this is a left-right thing, presuming you are talking about Trump. He is a populist, if anything. Or more likely just a representative of himself and only himself. I may not agree with the Right on some things but I generally operate under the idea that they believe in the basics of normal government.

    Trump is mercurial - that is the fundamental issue.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    A short election campaign sort of plays into Labour's plan, but a dark, wet and cold period in which the voters are reluctant to get out (Stoke C has not had a great history for turnout I believe) plays into the protest vote hands, as Stoke C's TH has gone onto a highly paid arts job is not likely to impress voters so I think that the benefit to Labour could be minimal if or (when) the mud starts flying. Its likely to be dirty, but then again this vote will sit with those who backed Brexit, getting them out to vote will be key and although I don't rate Doc Nuttal's chances the middle class vote may go anywhere (if they decide to vote).........leaves it quite open.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Absolutely brilliant!!!

    The SNP bloke on this week just said that, as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain, the SNP would vote against a50 to reflect the wishes of their constituents

    Then in the next breath he said he hoped labour MPs would 'develop a backbone' & vote against it... not reflecting the wishes of their constituents!!! Classic stuff

    Did all Labour constituencies vote leave? I hadn't realised.
    No, but, to defeat the bill, MPs whose constituencies voted Leave would have to vote it down, & that's what he called for, having justified his own party voting it down by 'reflecting the wishes of their constituents'

    Jess Phillips immediately pulled him up and he had no answer

    I'm sure you knew that xxxx
    As I recall he said that he hoped as many Labour MPs as possible would discover some back bone and vote against Article 50. In the context of the three line whip that was being discussed, this would refer to a goodly number of Labour mps whose constituencies voted remain.

    I notice on Facebook that the young and dumb use the xxxx thing quite a bit in their interactions. Presumably you're getting a bit past qualifying in at least one of those categories.
  • That fishy Brexit honeymoon didn't last long.

    https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/822242220363411458
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    Listening to Portillo talking about trade on This Week I'm reminded of why he did such a terrible job as Shadow Chancellor against Brown. He doesn't seem to have any deep understanding of what he's talking about.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    As the Daily Mail reminds us of ultra-vile child abuse in Belgium (by "Europe's elite"), indicating that the Battle for Brexit will be extremely dirty (which isn't to say the elite in Belgium haven't got it coming to them), it also publishes a piece by perjurer Jonathan Aitken proclaiming that "Donald Trump will be our number one ally". So Britain's pulling out of NATO then? Because that treaty says Poland, Turkey, etc., are Britain's allies, not its "number two" allies.

    When I read that "Donald Trump will be our number one ally", I have the image of a supplicant holding onto someone's trouser leg declaring "I'm your best friend".
  • Listening to Portillo talking about trade on This Week I'm reminded of why he did such a terrible job as Shadow Chancellor against Brown. He doesn't seem to have any deep understanding of what he's talking about.

    He certainly seemed very keen on repeating that the EU was a protectionist rather than a free market as if it was the greatest piece of economic insight of the age.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    Didn't Jean-Luc Mélenchon perform well in the Ipsos poll? Imagine if he comes second to Le Pen in the first round. Not likely, but possible. Marine Le Pen's father came second with 16.9% in 2002, and Mélenchon has climbed to around 14% in poll-land. France is more likely to follow the US and Britain, but just imagine - it could follow Spain, Greece, and Portugal. But if Mélenchon does come second he might withdraw, allowing a lower-placed candidate to carry the torch against Le Pen in the second round.

    I won't be surprised if Mélenchon beats Macron. The centre is a hard place to polarise from, and polarisation is what it's all about.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Listening to Portillo talking about trade on This Week I'm reminded of why he did such a terrible job as Shadow Chancellor against Brown. He doesn't seem to have any deep understanding of what he's talking about.

    He certainly seemed very keen on repeating that the EU was a protectionist rather than a free market as if it was the greatest piece of economic insight of the age.
    It's common for commentators to use "protectionist" as a dirty word without saying what's wrong with a bit of market protection.
  • Does Amazon have a bbc trust style complaints department? Because after this week's grand tour there could be a few people looking for its address.
  • Dromedary said:

    As the Daily Mail reminds us of ultra-vile child abuse in Belgium (by "Europe's elite"), indicating that the Battle for Brexit will be extremely dirty (which isn't to say the elite in Belgium haven't got it coming to them), it also publishes a piece by perjurer Jonathan Aitken proclaiming that "Donald Trump will be our number one ally". So Britain's pulling out of NATO then? Because that treaty says Poland, Turkey, etc., are Britain's allies, not its "number two" allies.

    When I read that "Donald Trump will be our number one ally", I have the image of a supplicant holding onto someone's trouser leg declaring "I'm your best friend".

    That's because you're immature. It's been policy for almost the entire post war period that the UK and USA have a Special Relationship over and above NATO. See intelligence sharing aka Five Eyes for where this is meaningfully put into action and not just words.

    Should we withdraw from Five Eyes and other agreements we have had for decades so that we can treat Turkey as an equitably number one ally?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,767
    @MaxPB
    MaxPB said:

    [snip]

    Before I forget, congrats on your engagement. I hope you and your fiancee will be very happy together
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Post hoc proctor hoc
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Mortimer said:

    Honest question: views on Chris Grayling. I've never really been a fan...

    Nor I. Lumbering dolt.......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Lisbon is the place to go if you want a call centre job:

    http://www.dw.com/en/lisbon-call-center-boom-draws-eu-guest-workers/a-18269637

    Unfortunately as its drawing in expats its unlikely to help with Portugal's 28% youth unemployment rate....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.

    Definitely progress - if Corbyn leave a Labour party in the hands of local MPs he'll leave one a lot better equipped for the future. As Fox observes, the death of the spadocracy.....wonder why the Tories haven't selected yet.....I suspect May's instincts are closer to Corbyn's than Cameron's ('A list, anyone?) on this.....
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,412

    Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.

    Definitely progress - if Corbyn leave a Labour party in the hands of local MPs he'll leave one a lot better equipped for the future. As Fox observes, the death of the spadocracy.....wonder why the Tories haven't selected yet.....I suspect May's instincts are closer to Corbyn's than Cameron's ('A list, anyone?) on this.....
    I'm not sure May is so tolerant of MPs who disagree with her.

    IMO this should also demonstrate to the non Corbyn wing of the party that there is a place for them... There isn't some kind of secret takeover plot.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    edited January 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.

    Definitely progress - if Corbyn leave a Labour party in the hands of local MPs he'll leave one a lot better equipped for the future. As Fox observes, the death of the spadocracy.....wonder why the Tories haven't selected yet.....I suspect May's instincts are closer to Corbyn's than Cameron's ('A list, anyone?) on this.....
    I'm not sure May is so tolerant of MPs who disagree with her.
    Evidence?

    She has much stronger links with the Constituency Associations than Cameron ever did.....

    And while we're complimenting Corbyn on his open approach, there could be an alternative explanation.....he just doesn't think Parliament that important to the movement
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    A short election campaign sort of plays into Labour's plan, but a dark, wet and cold period in which the voters are reluctant to get out (Stoke C has not had a great history for turnout I believe) plays into the protest vote hands, as Stoke C's TH has gone onto a highly paid arts job is not likely to impress voters so I think that the benefit to Labour could be minimal if or (when) the mud starts flying. Its likely to be dirty, but then again this vote will sit with those who backed Brexit, getting them out to vote will be key and although I don't rate Doc Nuttal's chances the middle class vote may go anywhere (if they decide to vote).........leaves it quite open.

    according to wiki, the lowest turnout of all in 2015 GE. I think the voters were already unimpressed with TH, so not sure whether that will be a factor. Whether the GE UKIP voters turn out or not could be instructive. (Will the BNP field a candidate? Do they offically exist again?)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    edited January 2017
    It's a Victory for Eck!

    THE senior STV journalist who was allegedly “gagged” by the SNP has resigned.
    Digital politics and comment editor Stephen Daisley is to leave his job later this month.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15029547.Journalist_in_SNP__gagging__row_quits_STV/

    Welcome to 'civic' SNPland......

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148

    It's a Victory for Eck!

    THE senior STV journalist who was allegedly “gagged” by the SNP has resigned.
    Digital politics and comment editor Stephen Daisley is to leave his job later this month.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15029547.Journalist_in_SNP__gagging__row_quits_STV/

    Welcome to 'civic' SNPland......

    Good news for Yes, undoubtedly!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Deliberate attack on Melbourne pedestrians by car driver - one confirmed dead, other reports three...

    http://www.itv.com/news/2017-01-20/three-dead-and-20-injured-after-car-ploughs-into-pedestrians/

    Police saying not terror related, one witness claims driver chanting Allahu Akbar
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    RobD said:

    It's a Victory for Eck!

    THE senior STV journalist who was allegedly “gagged” by the SNP has resigned.
    Digital politics and comment editor Stephen Daisley is to leave his job later this month.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15029547.Journalist_in_SNP__gagging__row_quits_STV/

    Welcome to 'civic' SNPland......

    Good news for Yes, undoubtedly!
    If only the BBC would have the guts to hire him - Daisley went after politicians of any stripe - and being in government the SNP more than most. The SNP also had the thinnest skins.....
  • Ignore the headline, this is really good news post-Brexit vote. Long may it continue. If it does, one of my big concerns will be assuaged. The key is to ensure a supply of flexible, high-quality staff. Freedom of movement really helps with that. Before initiating a visa system and putting hard limits on immigration numbers the government must take time to understand the dynamics of the high-tech sector (especially start-ups):

    http://upflow.co/l/eOW6/startups-shun-silicon-roundabout-2017-1r=US&IR=T



  • Dromedary said:

    As the Daily Mail reminds us of ultra-vile child abuse in Belgium (by "Europe's elite"), indicating that the Battle for Brexit will be extremely dirty (which isn't to say the elite in Belgium haven't got it coming to them), it also publishes a piece by perjurer Jonathan Aitken proclaiming that "Donald Trump will be our number one ally". So Britain's pulling out of NATO then? Because that treaty says Poland, Turkey, etc., are Britain's allies, not its "number two" allies.

    When I read that "Donald Trump will be our number one ally", I have the image of a supplicant holding onto someone's trouser leg declaring "I'm your best friend".

    That's because you're immature. It's been policy for almost the entire post war period that the UK and USA have a Special Relationship over and above NATO. See intelligence sharing aka Five Eyes for where this is meaningfully put into action and not just words.

    Should we withdraw from Five Eyes and other agreements we have had for decades so that we can treat Turkey as an equitably number one ally?

    We need to be careful about sharing intelligence with the Trump regime given he is totally untrustworthy and may have links to the Russian regime. The strategic interests of the US may well be diametrically opposed to our own. We want a strong NATO, a fully-functioning EU and as much free trade as possible. Trump doesn't.

  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Lisbon is the place to go if you want a call centre job:

    http://www.dw.com/en/lisbon-call-center-boom-draws-eu-guest-workers/a-18269637

    Unfortunately as its drawing in expats its unlikely to help with Portugal's 28% youth unemployment rate....
    Those jobs will go to the Portuguese youth in 2019 when the Brits are thrown out/invited to leave in response to what we will be doing to our EU nationals.
  • Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.

    Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.

    Corbyn did try to interfere and he failed. His supporters largely sit in front of computers. Thet don't get involved at CLP level.
    https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/822215830947725312
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Ally_B said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Lisbon is the place to go if you want a call centre job:

    http://www.dw.com/en/lisbon-call-center-boom-draws-eu-guest-workers/a-18269637

    Unfortunately as its drawing in expats its unlikely to help with Portugal's 28% youth unemployment rate....
    Those jobs will go to the Portuguese youth in 2019 when the Brits are thrown out/invited to leave in response to what we will be doing to our EU nationals.
    We're deporting them, are we?

    News to Mrs May!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148

    Ally_B said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Lisbon is the place to go if you want a call centre job:

    http://www.dw.com/en/lisbon-call-center-boom-draws-eu-guest-workers/a-18269637

    Unfortunately as its drawing in expats its unlikely to help with Portugal's 28% youth unemployment rate....
    Those jobs will go to the Portuguese youth in 2019 when the Brits are thrown out/invited to leave in response to what we will be doing to our EU nationals.
    We're deporting them, are we?

    News to Mrs May!
    The same Mrs May who wanted an early deal to secure their rights but was rebuffed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.

    Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.

    Corbyn did try to interfere and he failed. His supporters largely sit in front of computers. Thet don't get involved at CLP level.
    https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/822215830947725312
    “If it is an election on the NHS, we’ll win. If it’s an election on Corbyn, we’re f—-d.”

    That’s what one local Labour source told Business Insider on Thursday when we asked them what could win or lose the crucial Copeland by-election for the party......

    ....councillor Gillian Troughton is a leading candidate among local Labour members to stand in the by-election. Troughton won a Cumbria County Council by-election in 2015 and is well-respected locally. “She has a strong handle on the big issues in the seat,” a Labour campaigner told Business Insider.

    Holliday, like Troughton, enjoys an advantage in that she’s widely-known in Copeland....

    However, a possible Achilles heel is her support for Corbyn. Holliday describes herself as centre-left and pro-nuclear, but supported the anti-nuclear, socialist veteran in the party’s most recent leadership election. Copeland isn’t a progressive Labour seat in metropolitan London. It’s a traditional, pro-Leave, working-class seat with widespread concern about immigration. “We don’t do Corbyn here,”


    http://www.businessinsider.co.id/corbyn-candidate-rachel-holliday-joins-race-to-be-labours-copeland-byelection-mp-2017-1/#3ZpJJLwXvkIGHAlI.99
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017

    Dromedary said:

    As the Daily Mail reminds us of ultra-vile child abuse in Belgium (by "Europe's elite"), indicating that the Battle for Brexit will be extremely dirty (which isn't to say the elite in Belgium haven't got it coming to them), it also publishes a piece by perjurer Jonathan Aitken proclaiming that "Donald Trump will be our number one ally". So Britain's pulling out of NATO then? Because that treaty says Poland, Turkey, etc., are Britain's allies, not its "number two" allies.

    When I read that "Donald Trump will be our number one ally", I have the image of a supplicant holding onto someone's trouser leg declaring "I'm your best friend".

    That's because you're immature. It's been policy for almost the entire post war period that the UK and USA have a Special Relationship over and above NATO. See intelligence sharing aka Five Eyes for where this is meaningfully put into action and not just words.

    Should we withdraw from Five Eyes and other agreements we have had for decades so that we can treat Turkey as an equitably number one ally?
    "Immature" indeed :) That's not an alliance; that's a protectorate. Only one of the two countries put its nuclear weapons on the other's territory, and only one keeps two enormous electronic spy bases (perhaps mature people call them something different?) on the other's territory too - in one case clicking their fingers and having the indigenous population evacuated, although that wasn't considered necessary to do in North Yorkshire.

    I'd love to see Britain withdraw from both NATO and UKUSA. The latter was only officially admitted to exist nearly 60 years after it was agreed - talk about ignominy! Britain to the US may have been number one poodle for a time; now I don't think it's even that, for all the importance of the money-laundering network centred on the City of London and with an infrastructure spanning many outposts. The attitude in the Foreign Office has long been that the Yanks have the tech and can sling guns whereas the Brits have the brains and can understand the fuzzywuzzies' and tribal leaders' minds. Strange then that most countries' elites mostly prefer to send their brats to Ivy League universities rather than to Britain's two, if they get the chance. Who laughs at whom behind whose backs? Where we agree is that the relationship involves far more than NATO, but I wouldn't call it an "alliance".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Dromedary said:

    Didn't Jean-Luc Mélenchon perform well in the Ipsos poll? Imagine if he comes second to Le Pen in the first round. Not likely, but possible. Marine Le Pen's father came second with 16.9% in 2002, and Mélenchon has climbed to around 14% in poll-land. France is more likely to follow the US and Britain, but just imagine - it could follow Spain, Greece, and Portugal. But if Mélenchon does come second he might withdraw, allowing a lower-placed candidate to carry the torch against Le Pen in the second round.

    I won't be surprised if Mélenchon beats Macron. The centre is a hard place to polarise from, and polarisation is what it's all about.

    I think Melanchon has a ceiling at c. 14-15%, which makes it difficult, but not impossible to make the second round.

    If Hollande had been the Socalist candidate, Sarkozy the LR one, and Bayrou had stood, you could easily have had five candidates in the teens (Hollande, Sarkozy, Macron, Melechon and Bayrou), and he could easily have made second.

    But with both Fillon and Le Pen having floors in the low 20s, I don't see how he can make it into the final, unless he were able to pick up Socialist voters who went tactically for him to avoid a Fillon-Le Pen run off. Which, while possible, seems relatively unlikely.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Charles said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Post hoc proctor hoc
    I think you missed an 'ergo' in there.

    Yesterday, I heard a story (whether true or not is another matter) that Goldman was going to substantially reduce its London footprint. The European back-office was going to Warsaw, sales & trading for the bulk of European clients would go to Frankfurt, and a number of investment banking jobs would be moved back to the US.

    I don't know the veracity of the story, although the source is a plausible one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Dromedary said:

    Listening to Portillo talking about trade on This Week I'm reminded of why he did such a terrible job as Shadow Chancellor against Brown. He doesn't seem to have any deep understanding of what he's talking about.

    He certainly seemed very keen on repeating that the EU was a protectionist rather than a free market as if it was the greatest piece of economic insight of the age.
    It's common for commentators to use "protectionist" as a dirty word without saying what's wrong with a bit of market protection.
    Protectionism moves power from the individual (to make their own choice about whom to buy from) to the group.

    It also tends to lead to corporatism, where chosen industries are 'protected' from foreign competition, to the benefit of the owners of those businesses, and the detriment of consumers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912

    Deliberate attack on Melbourne pedestrians by car driver - one confirmed dead, other reports three...

    http://www.itv.com/news/2017-01-20/three-dead-and-20-injured-after-car-ploughs-into-pedestrians/

    Police saying not terror related, one witness claims driver chanting Allahu Akbar

    It's the difference between "inspired by" and "organised by"...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    tlg86 said:
    The perfect symbol of the Trump transition would have been a line of tanks rolling across a bridge, which promptly collapses under their weight.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    edited January 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Dromedary said:

    Listening to Portillo talking about trade on This Week I'm reminded of why he did such a terrible job as Shadow Chancellor against Brown. He doesn't seem to have any deep understanding of what he's talking about.

    He certainly seemed very keen on repeating that the EU was a protectionist rather than a free market as if it was the greatest piece of economic insight of the age.
    It's common for commentators to use "protectionist" as a dirty word without saying what's wrong with a bit of market protection.
    Protectionism moves power from the individual (to make their own choice about whom to buy from) to the group.

    It also tends to lead to corporatism, where chosen industries are 'protected' from foreign competition, to the benefit of the owners of those businesses, and the detriment of consumers.
    The next paragraph of that is that corporatism leads naturally to corruption, because there is now a lot of money in getting politicians to choose your industry to be protected from competition (while also forcing your suppliers to remain unprotected to keep your own costs down).

    After that comes George Monbiot's Pollution Paradox:
    https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/822072394680586240
    ...except in this case we're not talking about dirty companies, we're talking about shitty, inefficient ones.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited January 2017
    Morning all.

    Taking part in Donald Trump's inauguration today is the Talladega Marching Tornadoes, a 'historically black college marching band' according to Aunty. - Not a Tank or Missile Launcher in sight unfortunately, the inauguration day will be all the poorer for it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912

    rcs1000 said:

    Dromedary said:

    Listening to Portillo talking about trade on This Week I'm reminded of why he did such a terrible job as Shadow Chancellor against Brown. He doesn't seem to have any deep understanding of what he's talking about.

    He certainly seemed very keen on repeating that the EU was a protectionist rather than a free market as if it was the greatest piece of economic insight of the age.
    It's common for commentators to use "protectionist" as a dirty word without saying what's wrong with a bit of market protection.
    Protectionism moves power from the individual (to make their own choice about whom to buy from) to the group.

    It also tends to lead to corporatism, where chosen industries are 'protected' from foreign competition, to the benefit of the owners of those businesses, and the detriment of consumers.
    The next paragraph of that is that corporatism leads naturally to corruption, because there is now a lot of money in getting politicians to choose your industry to be protected from competition (while also forcing your suppliers to remain unprotected to keep your own costs down).

    After that comes George Monbiot's Pollution Paradox:
    https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/822072394680586240
    ...except in this case we're not talking about dirty companies, we're talking about shitty, inefficient ones.
    I'm not normally a Monbiot fan, but that's an excellent quote.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dromedary said:

    Listening to Portillo talking about trade on This Week I'm reminded of why he did such a terrible job as Shadow Chancellor against Brown. He doesn't seem to have any deep understanding of what he's talking about.

    He certainly seemed very keen on repeating that the EU was a protectionist rather than a free market as if it was the greatest piece of economic insight of the age.
    It's common for commentators to use "protectionist" as a dirty word without saying what's wrong with a bit of market protection.
    Protectionism moves power from the individual (to make their own choice about whom to buy from) to the group.

    It also tends to lead to corporatism, where chosen industries are 'protected' from foreign competition, to the benefit of the owners of those businesses, and the detriment of consumers.
    The next paragraph of that is that corporatism leads naturally to corruption, because there is now a lot of money in getting politicians to choose your industry to be protected from competition (while also forcing your suppliers to remain unprotected to keep your own costs down).

    After that comes George Monbiot's Pollution Paradox:
    https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/822072394680586240
    ...except in this case we're not talking about dirty companies, we're talking about shitty, inefficient ones.
    I'm not normally a Monbiot fan, but that's an excellent quote.
    This is as old as story as the hills. Another way to assess the situation is to see which companies have large offices in the DC Metro area. Those that need to lobby are all here - those that don't are not.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,412

    rkrkrk said:

    Whatever people say about Corbyn, it has to be conceded that he doesn't pressure local parties to pick his supporters - I haven't heard any suggestion at all that Copeland members got leaned on, and the choice seems a reasonable one. The Tories seem undecided whether to attack her as "far left" (their first reaction) or gloat that she's not. She should IMO be odds-on and the 2.76 on Betfair is now value.

    Definitely progress - if Corbyn leave a Labour party in the hands of local MPs he'll leave one a lot better equipped for the future. As Fox observes, the death of the spadocracy.....wonder why the Tories haven't selected yet.....I suspect May's instincts are closer to Corbyn's than Cameron's ('A list, anyone?) on this.....
    I'm not sure May is so tolerant of MPs who disagree with her.
    Evidence?

    She has much stronger links with the Constituency Associations than Cameron ever did.....

    And while we're complimenting Corbyn on his open approach, there could be an alternative explanation.....he just doesn't think Parliament that important to the movement
    I was thinking of her spat with Nicky Morgan and the fairly brutal way she removed Osborne and others from power at the first opportunity.

    Not a huge amount of evidence though I admit.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,412
    tlg86 said:
    A tank falling through crumbling road infrastructure into a swamp would have been a very neat political metaphor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    Morning. Given that Labour have now chosen a sensible local candidate, they should really be the favourites to retain the seat. Still 2.6 on Betfair, against 1.8 for the Tories.
  • MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dromedary said:

    Listening to Portillo talking about trade on This Week I'm reminded of why he did such a terrible job as Shadow Chancellor against Brown. He doesn't seem to have any deep understanding of what he's talking about.

    He certainly seemed very keen on repeating that the EU was a protectionist rather than a free market as if it was the greatest piece of economic insight of the age.
    It's common for commentators to use "protectionist" as a dirty word without saying what's wrong with a bit of market protection.
    Protectionism moves power from the individual (to make their own choice about whom to buy from) to the group.

    It also tends to lead to corporatism, where chosen industries are 'protected' from foreign competition, to the benefit of the owners of those businesses, and the detriment of consumers.
    The next paragraph of that is that corporatism leads naturally to corruption, because there is now a lot of money in getting politicians to choose your industry to be protected from competition (while also forcing your suppliers to remain unprotected to keep your own costs down).

    After that comes George Monbiot's Pollution Paradox:
    https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/822072394680586240
    ...except in this case we're not talking about dirty companies, we're talking about shitty, inefficient ones.
    I'm not normally a Monbiot fan, but that's an excellent quote.
    This is as old as story as the hills. Another way to assess the situation is to see which companies have large offices in the DC Metro area. Those that need to lobby are all here - those that don't are not.

    Google is lobbyist number one. Bore huge fruit under Obama. Starting to work with Trump: the ex-Google head of the US Patent and Trademark Office appointed by Obama is remaining in place under the new Administration. That's a massive win for her old employer and one that will save it billions of dollars a year.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Post hoc proctor hoc
    I think you missed an 'ergo' in there.

    Yesterday, I heard a story (whether true or not is another matter) that Goldman was going to substantially reduce its London footprint. The European back-office was going to Warsaw, sales & trading for the bulk of European clients would go to Frankfurt, and a number of investment banking jobs would be moved back to the US.

    I don't know the veracity of the story, although the source is a plausible one.
    Indie reporting German press:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-goldman-sachs-move-half-london-jobs-3000-employees-new-york-europe-eu-frankfurt-a7534776.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Post hoc proctor hoc
    I think you missed an 'ergo' in there.

    Yesterday, I heard a story (whether true or not is another matter) that Goldman was going to substantially reduce its London footprint. The European back-office was going to Warsaw, sales & trading for the bulk of European clients would go to Frankfurt, and a number of investment banking jobs would be moved back to the US.

    I don't know the veracity of the story, although the source is a plausible one.
    Indie reporting German press:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-goldman-sachs-move-half-london-jobs-3000-employees-new-york-europe-eu-frankfurt-a7534776.html
    I think finance in Europe will become much more like the US - that is much more spread out, without one city having such complete dominance.

    We'll probably most feel the negative effect in ancillary services: i.e. other businesses that were headquartered in London so as to be near the source of so much financial services activity. (Accounting, law, etc.)

    I wouldn't like to be long prime London property. Oops.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    rcs1000 said:

    Dromedary said:

    Listening to Portillo talking about trade on This Week I'm reminded of why he did such a terrible job as Shadow Chancellor against Brown. He doesn't seem to have any deep understanding of what he's talking about.

    He certainly seemed very keen on repeating that the EU was a protectionist rather than a free market as if it was the greatest piece of economic insight of the age.
    It's common for commentators to use "protectionist" as a dirty word without saying what's wrong with a bit of market protection.
    Protectionism moves power from the individual (to make their own choice about whom to buy from) to the group.

    It also tends to lead to corporatism, where chosen industries are 'protected' from foreign competition, to the benefit of the owners of those businesses, and the detriment of consumers.
    one of the problems with that is defining what is to the detriment of consumers
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    I've never heard of that before, needing a court order to get someone out of hospital. Does this happen from time to time in England? Why on earth did they feed him?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Heard tonight a friend's daughter is losing her job because her call centre is being relocated to Lisbon following Brexit.

    Real jobs, real lives.

    Post hoc proctor hoc
    I think you missed an 'ergo' in there.

    Yesterday, I heard a story (whether true or not is another matter) that Goldman was going to substantially reduce its London footprint. The European back-office was going to Warsaw, sales & trading for the bulk of European clients would go to Frankfurt, and a number of investment banking jobs would be moved back to the US.

    I don't know the veracity of the story, although the source is a plausible one.
    Indie reporting German press:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-goldman-sachs-move-half-london-jobs-3000-employees-new-york-europe-eu-frankfurt-a7534776.html
    Were they and others of a similar ilk not having a meeting with May at Davos yesterday? Presumably wanting more attention/favours/influence.
This discussion has been closed.