Precisely. The one group that politicians of all parties have been very focused on over the last 20 years is pensioners. Back in the 80s and 90s, they were far worse off as a group than the national average; now as a group they are outperforming the national average. Going back to the very start of this argument, that was exactly the point I was trying to make. They have not been forgotten or left behind, but they voted to Leave in big numbers and in all categories.
They are not outperforming the national average. Pensioners are generally fairly poor (and some are very poor). See figure 7 here:
It is true that the gap between pensioners and people in work has narrowed over the past few years, and that they were insulated from the financial fallout of the 2008/9 crash much more than working households were. That is partly because of deliberate policy decisions, most notably by Gordon Brown as it happens, and is probably fair enough, given how far behind they had fallen. The other reason is that (as that graph makes clear) pensioners' income always tends to vary less in good times and bad times compared with working households.
Absolutely, and Dubai is even more so. You're here to work, but they don't owe you anything if you're unemployed or retired - these things they reserve for their citizens, of whom you'll never be one.
In the case of Singapore its not terribly hard to become a citizen, basically you need to have had a job there for five years to get a permanent residency, and then two further years, have a clean record, and be prepared to be involved in their military service requirements. The two catches are there is no dual citizenship, so you have to renounce your birth citizenship, and if you came there in middle age you are unlikely to have enough in your CPF account for a comfortable retirement unless you were making a fortune or make a load of voluntary additional contributions.
@GoodwinMJ: % May Brexit deal "good for Britain" All voters 55% Ukip 84% Leavers 81% w.class 60% London 52% Remainers 32% Wd respect EURef? 62% say yes
Even 56% Remainers think May's Brexit deal would respect the result of the EU referendum. Shows how much a chamber Twitter is.
Butt she doesn't have a deal. She has aspirations.
And if she doesn't get one voters will blame the EU.....
And do you think the other member states of the European Union will or will not agree to the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May is proposing? Net agree: -36
Theresa May also said that "no deal is better than a bad deal". Which of the following best reflects your view? No deal: 48 Bad Deal: 17
Precisely. The one group that politicians of all parties have been very focused on over the last 20 years is pensioners. Back in the 80s and 90s, they were far worse off as a group than the national average; now as a group they are outperforming the national average. Going back to the very start of this argument, that was exactly the point I was trying to make. They have not been forgotten or left behind, but they voted to Leave in big numbers and in all categories.
They are not outperforming the national average. Pensioners are generally fairly poor (and some are very poor). See figure 7 here:
It is true that the gap between pensioners and people in work has narrowed over the past few years, and that they were insulated from the financial fallout of the 2008/9 crash much more than working households were. That is partly because of deliberate policy decisions, most notably by Gordon Brown as it happens, and is probably fair enough, given how far behind they had fallen. The other reason is that (as that graph makes clear) pensioners' income always tends to vary less in good times and bad times compared with working households.
Fair enough, I got my terms wrong. But this is the key point:
Looking separately at retired and non-retired households, the median income for retired households rose by 3.1% between 2014/15 and 2015/16, while the median income for non-retired households was broadly unchanged. The economic downturn had a larger effect on non-retired households, with median income in 2015/16 still 1.2% lower than pre-downturn levels in 2007/08 while the income for retired households grew by 13.0% over the same period.
Pensioners have not been forgotten, they have not been left behind. They have been at the forefront of thinking in Labour, Coalition and Tory governments successively. As you say, given where they were previously that is clearly a good thing - but that was not the argument.
That should be fun. We had our council tax banding (from D to E) for no apparent reason a few years ago; I wish I'd challenged them over it. I'd be tempted to vote in favour if we could abolish the Borough Councils and make Surrey a unitary authority.
Not sure this extra seamer thing has worked out too well... This is a car crash at the moment.
At least you're not watching it in a bar full of Indians!
I went into a meeting this morning when India were 30 for 3.
Meeting finished India were 250/3 twenty odd overs later
Yes, I also went into a meeting when it was 30/3, finished a couple of hours later and went to the bar - which is now very quickly filling up with indians as the message gets around. We're going to have to chase 380 on the evening's dew-soaked pitch.
Not that anyone has indicated that they've been listening, but I've said this for weeks. SNP style wipeout is more likely to happen to Labour in the Midlands than the NE or NW.
The Midlands are a very mixed bag. I don't see any signs whatever of a Labour wipeout in the East Midlands (though I do see the Tories doing well), while I don't have any personal impression of the West Midlands. Comparing trends, in, say, Birmingham and Nottingham (let alone, say, Lincolnshire) is unwise.
But I do think UKIP is a busted flush, especially in the "hammer of the Labour vote" guise that it's currently adopting, and if Nuttall cares to take on Stoke, we will find that very clearly demonstrated.
Until very late in the day, you thought you were going to regain Broxtowe, Nick.
Dhoni’s out. Mr Sandpit’s bar will have gone quiet!
England will have to go some to match this score, India seem to have the most extraordinary batting strength at the moment.
England's problem is that they are very poor at taking wickets in the middle overs so good starts are not capitalised on. They can really bat but they put themselves under pressure and the wickets tumble. England will need a couple of centurions themselves to get close to this but India are so much more dangerous with the ball.
Not that anyone has indicated that they've been listening, but I've said this for weeks. SNP style wipeout is more likely to happen to Labour in the Midlands than the NE or NW.
The Midlands are a very mixed bag. I don't see any signs whatever of a Labour wipeout in the East Midlands (though I do see the Tories doing well), while I don't have any personal impression of the West Midlands. Comparing trends, in, say, Birmingham and Nottingham (let alone, say, Lincolnshire) is unwise.
But I do think UKIP is a busted flush, especially in the "hammer of the Labour vote" guise that it's currently adopting, and if Nuttall cares to take on Stoke, we will find that very clearly demonstrated.
Until very late in the day, you thought you were going to regain Broxtowe, Nick.
Broxtowe will be interesting next time - it is subject to boundary review changes (if they pass). So will be a different seat next time. Some of the bits on edge of nottingham that are near the university will merge with Nottingham S iirc.
That should be fun. We had our council tax banding (from D to E) for no apparent reason a few years ago; I wish I'd challenged them over it. I'd be tempted to vote in favour if we could abolish the Borough Councils and make Surrey a unitary authority.
No apparent reason? That's odd. We had ours changed and we investigated and it turned out that one of our neighbours had complained that our rating didn't reflect the true situation wrt to our house and his/her own. We never found out who - it is all anonymous. We had had an extension built at the back of house.
"Germany's finance minister has warned the UK against turning itself into a corporate tax haven in order to boost the country's competitiveness after Brexit."
That should be fun. We had our council tax banding (from D to E) for no apparent reason a few years ago; I wish I'd challenged them over it. I'd be tempted to vote in favour if we could abolish the Borough Councils and make Surrey a unitary authority.
I'd make JohnO Governor of Surrey, he'd get it all sorted out.
"Germany's finance minister has warned the UK against turning itself into a corporate tax haven in order to boost the country's competitiveness after Brexit."
What's it got to do with him ?
Germany is shit-scared of the UK becoming a bigger Switzerland on the border of the EU.
As others have said this morning, the banks talking about relocating to France won't be putting much more than a paper office there with all the employment regulations they'd have to face. The actual work and the profits - and the taxes paid - aren't leaving London anytime soon.
Not sure this extra seamer thing has worked out too well... This is a car crash at the moment.
At least you're not watching it in a bar full of Indians!
I went into a meeting this morning when India were 30 for 3.
Meeting finished India were 250/3 twenty odd overs later
Yes, I also went into a meeting when it was 30/3, finished a couple of hours later and went to the bar - which is now very quickly filling up with indians as the message gets around. We're going to have to chase 380 on the evening's dew-soaked pitch.
When I was a bachelor I lived all alone I worked at the weaver's trade And the only, only thing that I did that was wrong Was to woo a fair young maid
I wooed her in the winter time Part of the summer too And the only, only thing that I did that was wrong Was to keep her from the foggy, foggy dew
One night she knelt close by my side When I was fast asleep She threw her arms around my neck And then began to weep
She wept, she cried, she tore her hair Ah, me, what could I do? So all night long, I held her in my arms Just to keep her from the foggy, foggy dew
That should be fun. We had our council tax banding (from D to E) for no apparent reason a few years ago; I wish I'd challenged them over it. I'd be tempted to vote in favour if we could abolish the Borough Councils and make Surrey a unitary authority.
No apparent reason? That's odd. We had ours changed and we investigated and it turned out that one of our neighbours had complained that our rating didn't reflect the true situation wrt to our house and his/her own. We never found out who - it is all anonymous. We had had an extension built at the back of house.
Well we haven't touched our house since we moved there in 1994. But I suspect someone who knew our property was band D reported this to the council. It's done now so nothing we can do, but I'm sure as hell my parents won't be voting in favour of this. They're 70 and 68 and I know that this money wouldn't go to help them as they get older anyway. We'll be made to sell the house if they ever needed looking after.
"Germany's finance minister has warned the UK against turning itself into a corporate tax haven in order to boost the country's competitiveness after Brexit."
What's it got to do with him ?
The best thing since 23rd June is the sense of relief I feel - this sort of interference is no more.
"Germany's finance minister has warned the UK against turning itself into a corporate tax haven in order to boost the country's competitiveness after Brexit."
What's it got to do with him ?
When do we give Germany the bill for their poisonous cars?
Interesting trend in CSEW, serious offences up slightly - though the absolute numbers are low - whereas petty crime down. (Excluding the new cybercrime offences.)
Paul Joseph Watson published fake news after falling for a hoax, say it ain't so.
A man based in Scotland has revealed to BuzzFeed News how he tricked the right-wing conspiracy site Infowars into publishing a completely fake report about president-elect Donald Trump.
Markus Muir, a 27-year-old marketing professional from Glasgow, sent direct messages on Twitter to Infowars editor-at-large Paul Joseph Watson claiming BuzzFeed News and CNN were due to release harmful footage of Trump.
The report, which has now been shared over 15,000 times on Facebook, directly quoted the messages, which claimed the footage of Trump showed him using the n-word in a previously unseen outtake of The Apprentice.
Muir, who claimed in the messages to work for NBC, has revealed he was the single source for the report in the form of an account which he set up solely for the prank. He said Watson did not ask for any evidence that he worked for NBC or about how he gained the information.
Paul Joseph Watson published fake news after falling for a hoax, say it ain't so.
A man based in Scotland has revealed to BuzzFeed News how he tricked the right-wing conspiracy site Infowars into publishing a completely fake report about president-elect Donald Trump.
Markus Muir, a 27-year-old marketing professional from Glasgow, sent direct messages on Twitter to Infowars editor-at-large Paul Joseph Watson claiming BuzzFeed News and CNN were due to release harmful footage of Trump.
The report, which has now been shared over 15,000 times on Facebook, directly quoted the messages, which claimed the footage of Trump showed him using the n-word in a previously unseen outtake of The Apprentice.
Muir, who claimed in the messages to work for NBC, has revealed he was the single source for the report in the form of an account which he set up solely for the prank. He said Watson did not ask for any evidence that he worked for NBC or about how he gained the information.
"Germany's finance minister has warned the UK against turning itself into a corporate tax haven in order to boost the country's competitiveness after Brexit."
What's it got to do with him ?
Germany is shit-scared of the UK becoming a bigger Switzerland on the border of the EU.
As others have said this morning, the banks talking about relocating to France won't be putting much more than a paper office there with all the employment regulations they'd have to face. The actual work and the profits - and the taxes paid - aren't leaving London anytime soon.
Any significant bank will already have a sizeable office in France.
"Germany's finance minister has warned the UK against turning itself into a corporate tax haven in order to boost the country's competitiveness after Brexit."
What's it got to do with him ?
Germany is shit-scared of the UK becoming a bigger Switzerland on the border of the EU.
As others have said this morning, the banks talking about relocating to France won't be putting much more than a paper office there with all the employment regulations they'd have to face. The actual work and the profits - and the taxes paid - aren't leaving London anytime soon.
We have already ruled out becoming a bigger Switzerland on the border of the EU.
Is Surrey a real county? Or did it go the way of Middlesex?
It is very much a real county, thank you very much! What did they teach you a Fen Poly?
Only real proper counties should be allowed to play first class cricket, thus Yorkshire won last year's county championship
Strange how Yorkshire competes as one county. They should split it in to North, West and East Yorkshire (South Yorkshire, which is not a proper county, would be excluded).
I was at uni with a guy from Howden. I used to point out to him that he was born in Humberside and would, therefore, never be a proper Yorkshireman. He didn't like me pointing this out.
Is Surrey a real county? Or did it go the way of Middlesex?
It is very much a real county, thank you very much! What did they teach you a Fen Poly?
Only real proper counties should be allowed to play first class cricket, thus Yorkshire won last year's county championship
Strange how Yorkshire competes as one county. They should split it in to North, West and East Yorkshire (South Yorkshire, which is not a proper county, would be excluded).
I was at uni with a guy from Howden. I used to point out to him that he was born in Humberside and would, therefore, never be a proper Yorkshireman. He didn't like me pointing this out.
Ah yes Humberside, they have a better university than Cowley Tech.
"Germany's finance minister has warned the UK against turning itself into a corporate tax haven in order to boost the country's competitiveness after Brexit."
What's it got to do with him ?
The best thing since 23rd June is the sense of relief I feel - this sort of interference is no more.
Corporation Tax 'Harmonisation' ('sic - increases) and Tobin Tax - roll on!
"Germany's finance minister has warned the UK against turning itself into a corporate tax haven in order to boost the country's competitiveness after Brexit."
What's it got to do with him ?
Germany is shit-scared of the UK becoming a bigger Switzerland on the border of the EU.
As others have said this morning, the banks talking about relocating to France won't be putting much more than a paper office there with all the employment regulations they'd have to face. The actual work and the profits - and the taxes paid - aren't leaving London anytime soon.
We have already ruled out becoming a bigger Switzerland on the border of the EU.
When? I thought we were keeping our options open.
Remember that Switzerland is NOT in the Single Market if that's what you mean.
"Germany's finance minister has warned the UK against turning itself into a corporate tax haven in order to boost the country's competitiveness after Brexit."
What's it got to do with him ?
Germany is shit-scared of the UK becoming a bigger Switzerland on the border of the EU.
As others have said this morning, the banks talking about relocating to France won't be putting much more than a paper office there with all the employment regulations they'd have to face. The actual work and the profits - and the taxes paid - aren't leaving London anytime soon.
We have already ruled out becoming a bigger Switzerland on the border of the EU.
So all your posts about 'a race to the bottom' since Hammond's Die Welt interview?????
Discussions are now largely focussing on the divorce proceedings from the EU, as one would naturally expect.
But painting a picture of what a future independent UK will look like, and how it will use its powers, is an interesting one. And a very important one.
Given how the biggest concerns about Brexit are that we lose influence and we lose economic wealth and growth, I'd love to have a national conversation about this or - failing that - a similar visionary speech by May, as to just what HMG thinks we'll do on that.
I have my own ideas, but so far we have Global Britain and a promised industrial strategy. Of course, much of that will hinge off just what exactly the UK-EU relationship ends up at, but by no means all of it.
As far as I can tell HMG's current plans are to go hell for leather in striking trade deals left, right and centre, and promote UK trade globally, but linked to an industrial strategy that recognises our strategic strengths, and aligns our education and immigration policies to them. Without dropping our existing rights and worker protections.
I've seen a bit less on foreign policy, except snippets such as we will still be a strong partner on regional European security, promote free trade worldwide and something about "Empires of the mind" from Boris, which I assume is the UK proactively promoting its values worldwide.
A fair point to judge the success of this - or whether its on track to be just as/even more than successful as the old model - is probably in 10-15 years time, I'd say roundabout 2030.
Villi Wilson Trump has asked all these congressional boycotters for their tickets back so that he can give them to some of the thousands that want to go https://t.co/G5ROrb61My
Is Surrey a real county? Or did it go the way of Middlesex?
It is very much a real county, thank you very much! What did they teach you a Fen Poly?
Only real proper counties should be allowed to play first class cricket, thus Yorkshire won last year's county championship
Strange how Yorkshire competes as one county. They should split it in to North, West and East Yorkshire (South Yorkshire, which is not a proper county, would be excluded).
I was at uni with a guy from Howden. I used to point out to him that he was born in Humberside and would, therefore, never be a proper Yorkshireman. He didn't like me pointing this out.
Ah yes Humberside, they have a better university than Cowley Tech.
Whoever said Cowley Tech originally, please note I am stealing that.
Devastating article by Hardman on Labour's potential complete collapse in heartlands such as Stoke Central.
"‘The only thing that is propping up the party is a social norm, and if that cracks, then it becomes a snowball"
"Corbyn, says the Labour pollster James Morris, is not the source of the party’s problem, but rather the final straw for voters who were already losing patience."
Yes you could dismiss this as just a hatchet job from Spectator, but a) Hardman isn't that kind of reporter and b) John Harris of Guardian would write pretty much the same article.
Betting wise, I'm glad I'm betting against Labour in both by-election seats. When will the Party and its witless metropolitan new supporters put down their lattes and wake up?
Not that anyone has indicated that they've been listening, but I've said this for weeks. SNP style wipeout is more likely to happen to Labour in the Midlands than the NE or NW.
Again, I reckon this is spot on: especially if Labour goes into the election with a pro-IRA leader. Memories of the Birmingham pub bombings run long and deep in the West Midlands.
First thing my Pa mentioned after Labour leadership election. He was from Bromsgrove.
Comments
Interestingly there seem to be a range of voices on the EU side, from Macho-Man Verhofstadt to pragmatic Tusk.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2016
It is true that the gap between pensioners and people in work has narrowed over the past few years, and that they were insulated from the financial fallout of the 2008/9 crash much more than working households were. That is partly because of deliberate policy decisions, most notably by Gordon Brown as it happens, and is probably fair enough, given how far behind they had fallen. The other reason is that (as that graph makes clear) pensioners' income always tends to vary less in good times and bad times compared with working households.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/822042252268736512
Meeting finished India were 250/3 twenty odd overs later
Nutall needs to stand in Stoke to get UKIP some airtime regardless of the by-election outcome.
And do you think the other member states of the European Union will or will not agree to the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May is proposing?
Net agree: -36
Theresa May also said that "no deal is better than a bad deal". Which of the following best reflects your view?
No deal: 48
Bad Deal: 17
Looking separately at retired and non-retired households, the median income for retired households rose by 3.1% between 2014/15 and 2015/16, while the median income for non-retired households was broadly unchanged.
The economic downturn had a larger effect on non-retired households, with median income in 2015/16 still 1.2% lower than pre-downturn levels in 2007/08 while the income for retired households grew by 13.0% over the same period.
Pensioners have not been forgotten, they have not been left behind. They have been at the forefront of thinking in Labour, Coalition and Tory governments successively. As you say, given where they were previously that is clearly a good thing - but that was not the argument.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xalfiwu0ed/TimesResults_170118_VI_Trackers_MaySpeech_W.pdf
What's it got to do with him ?
As others have said this morning, the banks talking about relocating to France won't be putting much more than a paper office there with all the employment regulations they'd have to face. The actual work and the profits - and the taxes paid - aren't leaving London anytime soon.
When I was a bachelor I lived all alone
I worked at the weaver's trade
And the only, only thing that I did that was wrong
Was to woo a fair young maid
I wooed her in the winter time
Part of the summer too
And the only, only thing that I did that was wrong
Was to keep her from the foggy, foggy dew
One night she knelt close by my side
When I was fast asleep
She threw her arms around my neck
And then began to weep
She wept, she cried, she tore her hair
Ah, me, what could I do?
So all night long, I held her in my arms
Just to keep her from the foggy, foggy dew
Burl Ives
Right to leave 46%
Wrong to leave 42%
A man based in Scotland has revealed to BuzzFeed News how he tricked the right-wing conspiracy site Infowars into publishing a completely fake report about president-elect Donald Trump.
Markus Muir, a 27-year-old marketing professional from Glasgow, sent direct messages on Twitter to Infowars editor-at-large Paul Joseph Watson claiming BuzzFeed News and CNN were due to release harmful footage of Trump.
The report, which has now been shared over 15,000 times on Facebook, directly quoted the messages, which claimed the footage of Trump showed him using the n-word in a previously unseen outtake of The Apprentice.
Muir, who claimed in the messages to work for NBC, has revealed he was the single source for the report in the form of an account which he set up solely for the prank. He said Watson did not ask for any evidence that he worked for NBC or about how he gained the information.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/this-guy-tricked-infowars-into-publishing-a-completely-fake?utm_term=.ixjl0bP2w2#.am2x3LKgMg
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrey_County_Council
I was at uni with a guy from Howden. I used to point out to him that he was born in Humberside and would, therefore, never be a proper Yorkshireman. He didn't like me pointing this out.
Remember that Switzerland is NOT in the Single Market if that's what you mean.
But painting a picture of what a future independent UK will look like, and how it will use its powers, is an interesting one. And a very important one.
Given how the biggest concerns about Brexit are that we lose influence and we lose economic wealth and growth, I'd love to have a national conversation about this or - failing that - a similar visionary speech by May, as to just what HMG thinks we'll do on that.
I have my own ideas, but so far we have Global Britain and a promised industrial strategy. Of course, much of that will hinge off just what exactly the UK-EU relationship ends up at, but by no means all of it.
As far as I can tell HMG's current plans are to go hell for leather in striking trade deals left, right and centre, and promote UK trade globally, but linked to an industrial strategy that recognises our strategic strengths, and aligns our education and immigration policies to them. Without dropping our existing rights and worker protections.
I've seen a bit less on foreign policy, except snippets such as we will still be a strong partner on regional European security, promote free trade worldwide and something about "Empires of the mind" from Boris, which I assume is the UK proactively promoting its values worldwide.
A fair point to judge the success of this - or whether its on track to be just as/even more than successful as the old model - is probably in 10-15 years time, I'd say roundabout 2030.
NEW THREAD
Trump has asked all these congressional boycotters for their tickets back so that he can give them to some of the thousands that want to go https://t.co/G5ROrb61My
Fair opening question at @SadiqKhan's Davos media round: https://t.co/wmZAfmXU9Z
Australian finance minister tells Sky News trade deal with UK after Brexit "will happen very quickly" and preliminary talks have taken place