Stage 3 next year from Cambridge to The Mall will be about as close as Le Tour gets to Harpenden. I'm still thinking about the best spectating strategy. Either watch it roll through Epping and dash home to watch the rest on TV, or head up to central London and find a spot near one of the big screens.
I hadn't realised Le Tour had passed through Harpenden where the number and size of the pot holes are so great that when it rains the area looks like the Great Lakes region of North America !!
Nothings too good for the workers! Inverse snobbery anyone?
charlie whelan@charliewhelan58m Too many Tories #lords yesterday. An all Labour team with me today. At least didn't bump into Cameron in pavilion, he's not a member #ashes
That you would care either way about the political views of fellow spectators at a sporting event is beyond me. I'm pretty sure not everyone who sits round me a Tynecastle is a Tory, I must remember to ask them next time!
Will we see you in fancy dress along one of the climbs? I thought the guy in the giant chicken outfit yesterday was a good example of the genre. We could have a bit of fun competition and try to get a PB dot com banner on the TV.
Stage 3 next year from Cambridge to The Mall will be about as close as Le Tour gets to Harpenden. I'm still thinking about the best spectating strategy. Either watch it roll through Epping and dash home to watch the rest on TV, or head up to central London and find a spot near one of the big screens.
I hadn't realised Le Tour had passed through Harpenden where the number and size of the pot holes are so great that when it rains the area looks like the Great Lakes region of North America !!
A retired vet woke to find a police torch being shone into his face when officers raided his home after the RSPCA received a tip-off that his two pet dogs were being maltreated.
A total of 13 officials – police, firemen and RSPCA officers – turned up unannounced in six vehicles at 70-year-old John Spicer’s home and broke down the door to get in while he was asleep.
His sheepdogs Puppy and Little Boy were taken away and Puppy was destroyed immediately.
Mr Spicer was arrested on suspicion of causing unnecessary suffering to an animal.
He had his fingerprints, DNA and mugshot taken and was held in a police cell for 24 hours before being released.
Yesterday he criticised the RSPCA for being heavy-handed and said he has still not been told what has happened to Little Boy.
‘The whole episode was a total over-reaction,’ Mr Spicer said. ‘I was asleep inside and the first thing I knew was a torch being shone six inches from my face by a police officer.
‘I was put barefoot in the back of a police van and told I was being arrested. I was in a cell at a police station for 24 hours.
Mr Spicer, who lives in the village of Gobowen near Oswestry, Shropshire, was released after being questioned by officers from the animal welfare charity.
Yesterday an RSPCA spokesman refused to say whether Mr Spicer would face prosecution as the investigation is ongoing.
His ordeal began at around 5pm on July 8 when two RSPCA officers in separate vans, two constables, a sergeant and two PCSOs from West Mercia Police in two cars and a van, plus a fire engine with six firemen on board, turned up at his whitewashed terraced home.
After using a fire engine ladder to peer inside an upstairs window, they broke down the door and let themselves in.
Theses case are on the increase. Since when has the RSPCA had the authority to act like min-police or even the STASI - this needs reining in by the Home Sec.
Incumbency does matter in local elections, less so in national ones. Nationally it seems to be just a couple of percent, though of course this varies from seat to seat and may be crucial.
There is also negative incumbency which may affect some seats such as Danny Alexander. It nearly did for Ed Balls in 2010.
I am currently planning a wasted vote for the LDs. I live in a safe seat and do not like my MP.
No. On general election day the big battle for the LDs in Bedford will be to hold onto the elected mayoralty of which the party holds two, same as the Tories. They will do.
What's the point of wasting your general election vote?
In Wales, the LibDems are far weaker than they were. They will lose Cardiff Central to Labour, very likely lose Brecon to the Conservatives and will just retain Ceredigion as Plaid are not that popular.
In general the LDs have proven to be somewhat unreliable coalition allies who put their own political foibles ahead of the economic and cultural good of the electorate.
it is a pity that you make a forecast without looking at whether the evidence backs it up .
Cardiff Central is very likely to be held by the Lib Dems but it will be a close fight . The Welsh Assembly result in 2011 was a virtual deadheat between Lib Dems and Labour but the results in the 6 council wards making up the parliamentary seat in 2012 had the Lib Dems well in the lead . Brecon was comfortably held by the Lib Dems in the 2011 Welsh Assembly .
Mark:
I happen (for my sins) to have lived in Wales for the last 6 years and am using on-the-ground knowledge.
First 2011 is a long time ago in political terms. Since then Plaid has had a new leader - and a bit of a bounce -,but the Welsh LibDem leader is nigh invisible - as in the Welsh Con leader.
Also Welsh Council and AM elections are not a reliable guide to a GE result. For instance the upcoming election for an AM at Ynys Mon (Anglesey) will not be a reliable guide to 2015 due to the large number of independents.
In Ceredigion, Plaid lead the Council after the last local elections, but would you suggest that Mark Williams (LD) will lose his seat in 2015?
In S.Wales, Labour has woken up and are starting to try to improve education but at the same time do daft things like buying Cardiff airport - it is likely that all Cardiff seats will go Labour.
Plaid led Ceredigion council in 2008 also and with a 5% greater vote share than they managed in 2012 . I would agree that Cardiff Central will be close but incumbency and a squeeze on the Conservative vote should see Jenny Wilmott home .
In Wales, the LibDems are far weaker than they were. They will lose Cardiff Central to Labour, very likely lose Brecon to the Conservatives and will just retain Ceredigion as Plaid are not that popular.
In general the LDs have proven to be somewhat unreliable coalition allies who put their own political foibles ahead of the economic and cultural good of the electorate.
it is a pity that you make a forecast without looking at whether the evidence backs it up .
Cardiff Central is very likely to be held by the Lib Dems but it will be a close fight . The Welsh Assembly result in 2011 was a virtual deadheat between Lib Dems and Labour but the results in the 6 council wards making up the parliamentary seat in 2012 had the Lib Dems well in the lead . Brecon was comfortably held by the Lib Dems in the 2011 Welsh Assembly .
Mark:
I happen (for my sins) to have lived in Wales for the last 6 years and am using on-the-ground knowledge.
First 2011 is a long time ago in political terms. Since then Plaid has had a new leader - and a bit of a bounce -,but the Welsh LibDem leader is nigh invisible - as in the Welsh Con leader.
Also Welsh Council and AM elections are not a reliable guide to a GE result. For instance the upcoming election for an AM at Ynys Mon (Anglesey) will not be a reliable guide to 2015 due to the large number of independents.
In Ceredigion, Plaid lead the Council after the last local elections, but would you suggest that Mark Williams (LD) will lose his seat in 2015?
In S.Wales, Labour has woken up and are starting to try to improve education but at the same time do daft things like buying Cardiff airport - it is likely that all Cardiff seats will go Labour.
Plaid led Ceredigion council in 2008 also and with a 5% greater vote share than they managed in 2012 . I would agree that Cardiff Central will be close but incumbency and a squeeze on the Conservative vote should see Jenny Wilmott home .
Incidently , the Ynys Mon Welsh Assembly by election on August 1st has no Independent candidates standing at all , for someone who has on the ground knowledge from living in Wales , you do not seem to be on the ball .
The LDs will almost certainly hold Brecon and Ceredigion. Cardiff Central will be close but the LDs can't be written off there. Jenny Willott seems to be reasonably popular.
Ed Miliband does not come across as an election winner Agree:57; Disagree: 18; DK: 25.
The Labour Party understands the concerns of ordinary people better than the Conservatives do Agree: 42; Disagree: 36; DK: 22
Labour would have a better chance in the next General Election without Ed Miliband as Party leader Agree: 42; Disagree: 28:DK: 30
Labour can't be trusted to run the economy Agree: 46;Disagree: 30; DK: 24
The Labour Party would be more electable with David Miliband as its leader Agree:31; Disagree: 27; DK: 42
I would prefer a Labour/Liberal Democrat Coalition to a majority Labour Government Agree: 31; Disagree: 43; DK: 26
I would prefer a Labour/Liberal Democrat Coalition to a Conservative/Liberal Democrat Coalition Agree: 33; Disagree: 43;DK: 23
I expect Ed Miliband to be the next Prime Minister in 2015 Agree: 22; Disagree: 46; DK: 32
Which of the following, if any, would be the most likely to lead the Conservative Party to win the next General Election? DC: 27; BJ: 19; TM: 4; WH:3; MG: 1; GO:1;PH: 1; Other: 2; Don't think anyone could lead the CP to win the next GE: 19; DK: 22.
Do you, or would you, trust each of the following politicians to see the country through the current economic situation?
The thing with the Coalition is @RodCrosby that as people on both sides have now seen that the LibDems are a shambolic mish-mash of perfidious two-faced double-dealing shysters so they are more likely to say Yes to that question. You might as well vote for the real thing and know (roughly) what you're getting than risk the Yellow rabble muddying the waters.
I'm not sure that the polling indicates a 'loathing' of Hunt or Gove.
Not when 40% for Gove and 51% for Hunt 'don't know'.On EdM, on the other hand, only 28% of 2010 Lib Dems 'don't know', while 52% think he's doing "badly".....
In Wales, the LibDems are far weaker than they were. They will lose Cardiff Central to Labour, very likely lose Brecon to the Conservatives and will just retain Ceredigion as Plaid are not that popular.
In general the LDs have proven to be somewhat unreliable coalition allies who put their own political foibles ahead of the economic and cultural good of the electorate.
it is a pity that you make a forecast without looking at whether the evidence backs it up .
Cardiff Central is very likely to be held by the Lib Dems but it will be a close fight . The Welsh Assembly result in 2011 was a virtual deadheat between Lib Dems and Labour but the results in the 6 council wards making up the parliamentary seat in 2012 had the Lib Dems well in the lead . Brecon was comfortably held by the Lib Dems in the 2011 Welsh Assembly .
Mark:
I happen (for my sins) to have lived in Wales for the last 6 years and am using on-the-ground knowledge.
First 2011 is a long time ago in political terms. Since then Plaid has had a new leader - and a bit of a bounce -,but the Welsh LibDem leader is nigh invisible - as in the Welsh Con leader.
Also Welsh Council and AM elections are not a reliable guide to a GE result. For instance the upcoming election for an AM at Ynys Mon (Anglesey) will not be a reliable guide to 2015 due to the large number of independents.
In Ceredigion, Plaid lead the Council after the last local elections, but would you suggest that Mark Williams (LD) will lose his seat in 2015?
In S.Wales, Labour has woken up and are starting to try to improve education but at the same time do daft things like buying Cardiff airport - it is likely that all Cardiff seats will go Labour.
Plaid led Ceredigion council in 2008 also and with a 5% greater vote share than they managed in 2012 . I would agree that Cardiff Central will be close but incumbency and a squeeze on the Conservative vote should see Jenny Wilmott home .
In 2008, Ceredigion Council was led by a Independent/LD coalition (12+9) with help from 1 labour who is not really Labour. The Independent leader was defeated in 2012.
The thing with the Coalition is @RodCrosby that as people on both sides have now seen that the LibDems are a shambolic mish-mash of perfidious two-faced double-dealing shysters so they are more likely to say Yes to that question. You might as well vote for the real thing and know (roughly) what you're getting than risk the Yellow rabble muddying the waters.
I'm not sure that the polling indicates a 'loathing' of Hunt or Gove.
Not when 40% for Gove and 51% for Hunt 'don't know'.On EdM, on the other hand, only 28% of 2010 Lib Dems 'don't know', while 52% think he's doing "badly".....
Cardiff Central is very likely to be held by the Lib Dems but it will be a close fight . The Welsh Assembly result in 2011 was a virtual deadheat between Lib Dems and Labour but the results in the 6 council wards making up the parliamentary seat in 2012 had the Lib Dems well in the lead . Brecon was comfortably held by the Lib Dems in the 2011 Welsh Assembly .
Mark:
I happen (for my sins) to have lived in Wales for the last 6 years and am using on-the-ground knowledge.
First 2011 is a long time ago in political terms. Since then Plaid has had a new leader - and a bit of a bounce -,but the Welsh LibDem leader is nigh invisible - as in the Welsh Con leader.
Also Welsh Council and AM elections are not a reliable guide to a GE result. For instance the upcoming election for an AM at Ynys Mon (Anglesey) will not be a reliable guide to 2015 due to the large number of independents.
In Ceredigion, Plaid lead the Council after the last local elections, but would you suggest that Mark Williams (LD) will lose his seat in 2015?
In S.Wales, Labour has woken up and are starting to try to improve education but at the same time do daft things like buying Cardiff airport - it is likely that all Cardiff seats will go Labour.
Plaid led Ceredigion council in 2008 also and with a 5% greater vote share than they managed in 2012 . I would agree that Cardiff Central will be close but incumbency and a squeeze on the Conservative vote should see Jenny Wilmott home .
Incidently , the Ynys Mon Welsh Assembly by election on August 1st has no Independent candidates standing at all , for someone who has on the ground knowledge from living in Wales , you do not seem to be on the ball .
Mark: I am quite aware of that but the Council has a lot of Independent members and where that vote will go is anyone's guess.
FYI 2013 Council elections: PC12; Independents 9, Labour 3; LD 1; Other Independents 5.
The Council had been under administration for over a year due to political infighting, maladministration and other misdemeanors.
"Theses case are on the increase. Since when has the RSPCA had the authority to act like min-police or even the STASI - this needs reining in by the Home Sec."
If you had read the article and looked at the picture of the half dead dog being carried out on a stretcher and you understood that those who work for the RSPCA ACTUALLY care about animal welfare and if you could temper your need to regurgitate stories from the Daily Mail about their pet hate figures-however absurd-you might have avoided making such a ridiculous post.
It would be interesting to divide the LD seats into categories.
Rock solid Safe Marginal Not a prayer
which may not coincide exactly with the numerical majorities.
For the rock-solid category I offer up:- Ross, Skye & Lochaber Orkney and Shetland Sheffield Hallam Twickenham Westmoreland Bath Norfolk North Roxburgh & Berwickshire Yeovil Leeds NW Colchester Hazel Grove Thornbury & Yate Fife NE
"Theses case are on the increase. Since when has the RSPCA had the authority to act like min-police or even the STASI - this needs reining in by the Home Sec."
If you had read the article and looked at the picture of the half dead dog being carried out on a stretcher and you understood that those who work for the RSPCA ACTUALLY care about animal welfare and if you could temper your need to regurgitate stories from the Daily Mail about their pet hate figures-however absurd-you might have avoided making such a ridiculous post.
Are you sure you read the article? The ill dog's brother looked perfectly well cared for.
"They took away 12-year-old Puppy, which had been suffering ill health due to a spinal injury and had partly lost the use of its legs, as well as ten-year-old Little Boy, Puppy’s brother, claiming they were not being looked after properly.
But Mr Spicer, who was a vet for 30 years, said he had been treating Puppy’s illness, which he described as ‘complicated,’ himself and the dog had been improving.
He said: ‘The police decided there was no case to prosecute. I’ve heard nothing since from the RSPCA.’"
hard to believe there are 176 morons that complained about it, it was indeed funny and if they thought it was racist they need to see a shrink, suffering from sense of humour bypass.
Funnily enough, I think its the Scottish dad who is being sent up - in much the same way that its the teenage son (and his drooling mammary obsessed mates) in this one (also complained about, also left on air):
Mr. Roger, the dog on the stretcher was ill, according to the owner.
" But Mr Spicer, who was a vet for 30 years, said he had been treating Puppy’s illness, which he described as ‘complicated,’ himself and the dog had been improving.
He said: ‘The police decided there was no case to prosecute. I’ve heard nothing since from the RSPCA.’
Mr Spicer, a bachelor, added that he doesn’t know how he will live without his dogs. ‘I’ve not lived in my house without a dog for 30 years,’ he said. ‘At some stage it is going to hit me that the house is empty.’
Neighbour Mark Breeze, 47, said: ‘I’ve never seen John mistreat an animal in my life, he always looks after his dogs very well. He’s very cut up about it.’"
AndyJS - Disagree, I lived in Ceredigion last year in a ward where a long-serving LD county councillor lost his seat to Plaid. It should be a Plaid gain, particularly as the student vote and university vote from Aberystywth Uni will switch in a big way from the LDs over the LD's u-turn over fee rises
AndyJS - Disagree, I lived in Ceredigion last year in a ward where a long-serving LD county councillor lost his seat to Plaid. It should be a Plaid gain, particularly as the student vote and university vote from Aberystywth Uni will switch in a big way from the LDs over the LD's u-turn over fee rises
It would be interesting to divide the LD seats into categories.
For safe I'd say.
Southport Inverness Lewes Carshalton Kingston & Surbiton Portsmouth South Cambridge North Southwark & Bermondsey Caithness Ceredigion Bristol West Cardiff Central
"How could they not comprehend that its the Scots Dad's prejudices that are being sent up in this Irn Bru advert? "
They're not sending up the prejudices of the Dad or the boys they're just making a joke at the expense of a stereotype which is always the last refuge of an an advertising copywriter. Here's a more sexist (and funnier) example
It would be interesting to divide the LD seats into categories.
For safe I'd say.
Southport Inverness Lewes Carshalton Kingston & Surbiton Portsmouth South Cambridge North Southwark & Bermondsey Caithness Ceredigion Bristol West Cardiff Central
I agree with you but of course it's Sod's Law that they'll lose at least one of those.
George Galloway Making a doc, 'The Killing of Tony Blair', according to George 'it's about how Blair killed firstly the Labour Party then hundreds of thousands innocents. And made a killing out of both' https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/358436130389106688
A retired vet woke to find a police torch being shone into his face when officers raided his home after the RSPCA received a tip-off that his two pet dogs were being maltreated...
Theses case are on the increase. Since when has the RSPCA had the authority to act like min-police or even the STASI - this needs reining in by the Home Sec.
Can't comment on the specific case, but the police have relied on the RSPCA for ages for animal treatment interventions, with explicit legal authority. The argument, which is surely correct in theory, is that the RSPCA inspectors will have more expertise than the average copper on when an animal is being maltreated and when it's just naturally thin or whatever (like a greyhound, for instance).
Like the police in everyday cases, the inspectors will sometimes get it wrong, but that's not a reason to condemn the whole system. As with social workers removing children who they believe are being mistreated, the RSPCA is damned if it does and damned if it doesn't, but it's hard to see a better way of tackling alleged cruelty. There are people who don't like the RSPCA for other reasons (that they're anti-hunting, or conversely that they aren't liberationist enough) but the inspectorate on the whole does a good job which the police would really struggle with.
It would be interesting to divide the LD seats into categories.
For safe I'd say.
Southport Inverness Lewes Carshalton Kingston & Surbiton Portsmouth South Cambridge North Southwark & Bermondsey Caithness Ceredigion Bristol West Cardiff Central
I think Orkney & Shetland has to be added to that list too.
Marginals Edinburgh West Berwick on Tweed Eastbourne Mid-Dorset Taunton Deane Gordon Sutton & Cheam Solihull Cheadle Eastleigh Hornsey & Wood Green St Ives St Austell & Newquay Chippenham North Devon Somerton & Frome Birmingham Yardley Brecon & Radnor Argyll & Bute Wells North Cornwall Torbay West Aberdeenshire Redcar Brent Central Bradford East North Cornwall
and "Not a prayer" Norwich South Withington Burnley East Dunbartonshire
It would be interesting to divide the LD seats into categories.
Rock solid Safe Marginal Not a prayer
which may not coincide exactly with the numerical majorities.
For the rock-solid category I offer up:- Ross, Skye & Lochaber Orkney and Shetland Sheffield Hallam Twickenham Westmoreland Bath Norfolk North Roxburgh & Berwickshire Yeovil Leeds NW Colchester Hazel Grove Thornbury & Yate Fife NE
I've been wondering for months why Ladbrokes are offering 1/3 on LDs holding Sheffield Hallam. Max bet £150.
It would be interesting to divide the LD seats into categories.
For safe I'd say.
Southport Inverness Lewes Carshalton Kingston & Surbiton Portsmouth South Cambridge North Southwark & Bermondsey Caithness Ceredigion Bristol West Cardiff Central
I think Orkney & Shetland has to be added to that list too.
The thing with the Coalition is @RodCrosby that as people on both sides have now seen that the LibDems are a shambolic mish-mash of perfidious two-faced double-dealing shysters so they are more likely to say Yes to that question. You might as well vote for the real thing and know (roughly) what you're getting than risk the Yellow rabble muddying the waters.
I'm not sure that the polling indicates a 'loathing' of Hunt or Gove.
Not when 40% for Gove and 51% for Hunt 'don't know'.On EdM, on the other hand, only 28% of 2010 Lib Dems 'don't know', while 52% think he's doing "badly".....
Brilliant post Carlotta,the double standards laughable ;-)
The Sun picks up the Indie front page splash on the hacking that went unpunished under New Labour:
"MPs slammed Britain’s FBI yesterday after it claimed publishing a list of law firms, insurance companies and big businesses involved in hacking would breach human rights."
So if the LDs hold all the rock solid hold 80% of the safe lose 80% of the marginals and lose all of the "not a prayer", which I think is the worst case scenario.
I make that 28 seats lost, reducing them to 29.
A more reasonable calculation might be hold 90% of the safe and lose 50% of the marginals, which brings them to 19 losses and 38 holds.
I suspect they will do slightly better than that on the day...
AndyJS - Well, Harry Hayfield is a LD councillor so hardly objective. In the 2012 Council elections Plaid won 19 seats and 43.8% of the vote in Ceredigion, the LDs 23.9% and 7 seats, as I said, probable Plaid gain! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceredigion_County_Council_election,_2012
The correct vote shares in 2012 were
Plaid 38.85% down from 43.2% in 2008 Lib Dem 24.97% up from 24.3% in 2008
Plaid fought 6 more wards than the Lib Dems in both 2008 and 2012
"He said: ‘The police decided there was no case to prosecute. I’ve heard nothing since from the RSPCA.’"
...And from the article;
'Yesterday an RSPCA spokesman refused to say whether Mr Spicer would face prosecution as the investigation is ongoing.'
Don't confuse the Mail spin (ie the arrested man who says 'there will be no prosecution') and the actual story which as with all Mail hate stories you have to find by reading between the lines and using a tiny bit of common sense.
"Theses case are on the increase. Since when has the RSPCA had the authority to act like min-police or even the STASI - this needs reining in by the Home Sec."
If you had read the article and looked at the picture of the half dead dog being carried out on a stretcher and you understood that those who work for the RSPCA ACTUALLY care about animal welfare and if you could temper your need to regurgitate stories from the Daily Mail about their pet hate figures-however absurd-you might have avoided making such a ridiculous post.
Are you sure you read the article? The ill dog's brother looked perfectly well cared for.
"They took away 12-year-old Puppy, which had been suffering ill health due to a spinal injury and had partly lost the use of its legs, as well as ten-year-old Little Boy, Puppy’s brother, claiming they were not being looked after properly.
But Mr Spicer, who was a vet for 30 years, said he had been treating Puppy’s illness, which he described as ‘complicated,’ himself and the dog had been improving.
He said: ‘The police decided there was no case to prosecute. I’ve heard nothing since from the RSPCA.’"
The indignation in the article is clearly aimed at the dawn raid and so on - with the clear suggestion made that there was no justification for doing so. However on the basis of the treatment of the ill dog, that is far from clear.
Rod - Safe? Lewes too will probably go Tory as the Tories now control the council, as could Portsmouth South given Hancock's recent problems. Kingston could even go, Davey only won it by 56 in 1997 when the Tory v LD gap was much smaller than now, as could Carshalton which was Tory until 1997. Cambridge will probably go back to Labour as will Bristol West and Cardiff Central too. Caithness and Inverness could well go SNP. Of the seats you give I would say only Southport and Southwark were 'safe' and Labour will likely put up a good performance against Hughes!
Ed Miliband's strategic indecisiveness is indeed reminiscent of Gordon Brown, and I suspect the Shadow Cabinet are as aware of this weakness in their present leader as they were when it came to his predecessor. You have to wonder if its really any surprise that this Brownite trait appears to effect both Ed Miliband and Ed Balls after the years they spent in his Shadow? IIRC, Harriet Harman was quite critical of Ed Miliband's lack of progress in putting together the Labour manifesto before the last GE, so he definitely has previous form for this kind of behaviour.
"But part of it is blamed on Miliband himself. One figure close to the top reports that the leader "consults everyone but listens to no one", complaining of a strategic indecisiveness reminiscent of Gordon Brown....
Miliband acts as if a single speech were enough to shut down a problem when, as Blair understood, no message even begins to penetrate until it has been repeated a thousand times."
Daily Telegraph Daily Mail Sun Times Daily Express
Rod - Safe? Lewes too will probably go Tory as the Tories now control the council, as could Portsmouth South given Hancock's recent problems. Kingston could even go, Davey only won it by 56 in 1997 when the Tory v LD gap was much smaller than now, as could Carshalton which was Tory until 1997. Cambridge will probably go back to Labour as will Bristol West and Cardiff Central too. Caithness and Inverness could well go SNP. Of the seats you give I would say only Southport and Southwark were 'safe' and Labour will likely put up a good performance against Hughes!
The Conservatives may now control Lewes DC but their seats are mostly not in Lewes Parliamentary constituency , they are in Brighton Kemptown . Carshalton was of course a certain Conservative gain in 2005 - where are you Rik ?
Rod - Safe? Lewes too will probably go Tory as the Tories now control the council, as could Portsmouth South given Hancock's recent problems. Kingston could even go, Davey only won it by 56 in 1997 when the Tory v LD gap was much smaller than now, as could Carshalton which was Tory until 1997. Cambridge will probably go back to Labour as will Bristol West and Cardiff Central too. Caithness and Inverness could well go SNP. Of the seats you give I would say only Southport and Southwark were 'safe' and Labour will likely put up a good performance against Hughes!
I know, any one or more of those things could happen, but the title of the thread is incumbency, and that is the LDs secret weapon!
Are we completely ruling out any LD gain? If so, it would - with the exception of 1970 - be the first time since 1955 that they would not score a gain...
"Theses case are on the increase. Since when has the RSPCA had the authority to act like min-police or even the STASI - this needs reining in by the Home Sec."
If you had read the article and looked at the picture of the half dead dog being carried out on a stretcher and you understood that those who work for the RSPCA ACTUALLY care about animal welfare and if you could temper your need to regurgitate stories from the Daily Mail about their pet hate figures-however absurd-you might have avoided making such a ridiculous post.
Are you sure you read the article? The ill dog's brother looked perfectly well cared for.
"They took away 12-year-old Puppy, which had been suffering ill health due to a spinal injury and had partly lost the use of its legs, as well as ten-year-old Little Boy, Puppy’s brother, claiming they were not being looked after properly.
But Mr Spicer, who was a vet for 30 years, said he had been treating Puppy’s illness, which he described as ‘complicated,’ himself and the dog had been improving.
He said: ‘The police decided there was no case to prosecute. I’ve heard nothing since from the RSPCA.’"
The indignation in the article is clearly aimed at the dawn raid and so on - with the clear suggestion made that there was no justification for doing so. However on the basis of the treatment of the ill dog, that is far from clear.
How is it far from clear that the dawn raid was unjustified? There are photos showing one healthy looking dog, and one very sick dog so unless the man is being accused of singling out one dog for sadistic abuse, the root cause of any suffering was the dog's ill health. You could argue that it was cruel to keep the dog alive but surely that is no justification for a dawn raid.
The RSPCA certainly didn't hesitate to put the dog on their equivalent of the NHS Pathway. Thankfully we're not yet at the stage were people are subjected to dawn raids for attempting to prolong the life of sick elderly relatives at home.
RodCrosby - To put things in perspective Anthony Wells' poll average presently gives a LD to Labour swing of 11%, so any LD seat with a majority of 22% or less over Labour is vulnerable, including Cambridge, Bristol West and Cardiff Central.
RodCrosby - To put things in perspective Anthony Wells' poll average presently gives a LD to Labour swing of 11%, so any LD seat with a majority of 22% or less over Labour is vulnerable, including Cambridge, Bristol West and Cardiff Central.
True, the key words being "presently" and "vulnerable"...
Against the Tories there is less swing, but still a LD to Tory swing of 4% since the election so any LD majority of 8% or less is vulnerable. Of course, were the Tories to eat into the UKIP score and get back to level-pegging with Labour or even approach a majority, scores of LD seats could go. Last week, poll showed virtually all LD rural seats in Scotland falling to the SNP, except Orkney. Indeed, a poll earlier this year showed a LD to SNP swing of 14% meaning any LD seat with a majority of 28% or less over the SNP is at risk, including Caithness and Inverness http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/in-brief/6511-poll-of-polls-shows-snp-ahead-of-labour-for-westminster
"Theses case are on the increase. Since when has the RSPCA had the authority to act like min-police or even the STASI - this needs reining in by the Home Sec."
If you had read the article and looked at the picture of the half dead dog being carried out on a stretcher and you understood that those who work for the RSPCA ACTUALLY care about animal welfare and if you could temper your need to regurgitate stories from the Daily Mail about their pet hate figures-however absurd-you might have avoided making such a ridiculous post.
Are you sure you read the article? The ill dog's brother looked perfectly well cared for.
"They took away 12-year-old Puppy, which had been suffering ill health due to a spinal injury and had partly lost the use of its legs, as well as ten-year-old Little Boy, Puppy’s brother, claiming they were not being looked after properly.
But Mr Spicer, who was a vet for 30 years, said he had been treating Puppy’s illness, which he described as ‘complicated,’ himself and the dog had been improving.
He said: ‘The police decided there was no case to prosecute. I’ve heard nothing since from the RSPCA.’"
The indignation in the article is clearly aimed at the dawn raid and so on - with the clear suggestion made that there was no justification for doing so. However on the basis of the treatment of the ill dog, that is far from clear.
still well over the top, two of them could have turned up at a reasonable time and investigated, pathetic waste of public money all round. If it had been a burglary or similar they still not have arrived yet.
Mark Senior, but the LDs fought more wards relative to 2008 in 2012 than Plaid who were unchanged, hence the rise in LD vote share. Ceredigion is notoriously unpredictable, it was Plaid from 1992-2001, and LD from 2005-2010. If Plaid can eat into the student and university vote on a higher turnout at the general election relative to the local election anything can happen!
I think Cambridge might be a harder for the LDs to defend than you think. This is a seat that in recent years has had CON, LAB and now LD MPs
Yes, but they have a pleasant-enough first time incumbent LD, who should add a few votes to his total. And Cambridge backed AV... Labour are in third place... Slightly safer than on paper, I'd guess.
Mark Senior, but the LDs fought more wards relative to 2008 in 2012 than Plaid who were unchanged, hence the rise in LD vote share. Ceredigion is notoriously unpredictable, it was Plaid from 1992-2001, and LD from 2005-2010. If Plaid can eat into the student and university vote on a higher turnout at the general election relative to the local election anything can happen!
Nope . Plaid fought 6 wards more than the Lib Dems in both 2008 and 2012 though of course the wards both parties fought were not all the same in both years . Of course anything can happen but I would still rather put money on a Lib Dem hold than a Plaid gain .
Richard Frediani @FredianiITV So sad @KathyLette: R.I.P. Mel Smith. Sorry to bring sad and bad news, but apparently he died from heart attack in his sleep.”
@RodCrosby One big potential gain is where I used to live Oxford W & Abingdon.
The big test is the organisational capabilities of the LDs in the area & in Oxwab they are riding high after taking a big council by-election seat from the Tories a fortnight ago.
St Albans also looks promising.
There will be so few target seats because the primary focus will be on retaining what they have.
@RodCrosby One big potential gain is where I used to live Oxford W & Abingdon.
The big test is the organisational capabilities of the LDs in the area & in Oxwab they are riding high after taking a big council by-election seat from the Tories a fortnight ago.
St Albans also looks promising.
There will be so few target seats because the primary focus will be on retaining what they have.
Yes, there's about a half-dozen Con/LD battles with sub 1000 votes between them... One or two surprises cannot be ruled out, I guess.
Mark Senior - What I said was the LDs put up a few more candidates in 2012 than they did in 2008 while Plaid put up the same number of candidates in both elections, hence the rise in LD vote share. Ceredigion is very unpredictable, as I said Plaid gained it from the LDs in 1992, the LDs won it from Plaid in 2005 and anything could happen in 2015, I would not put money it but would certainly not rule out a Plaid gain!
@RodCrosby One big potential gain is where I used to live Oxford W & Abingdon.
The big test is the organisational capabilities of the LDs in the area & in Oxwab they are riding high after taking a big council by-election seat from the Tories a fortnight ago.
St Albans also looks promising.
There will be so few target seats because the primary focus will be on retaining what they have.
And presumably this time the Oxford LibDems will be concentrating on getting Oxford West back, rather than getting greedy and spreading themselves too thin trying to snaffle Oxford East off Labour as well.
Still unconfirmed Twitter rumour and reversed Wikipedia edit.....IIRC, Twitter killed off Rowan Atkinson last year....so lets hope Mel's as dead as Rowan....
Mark Senior - What I said was the LDs put up a few more candidates in 2012 than they did in 2008 while Plaid put up the same number of candidates in both elections, hence the rise in LD vote share. Ceredigion is very unpredictable, as I said Plaid gained it from the LDs in 1992, the LDs won it from Plaid in 2005 and anything could happen in 2015, I would not put money it but would certainly not rule out a Plaid gain!
I know that is what you said but it is wrong . Plaid fought 33 wards in both 2008 and 2012 and the Lib Dems 27 in both years .
Still unconfirmed Twitter rumour and reversed Wikipedia edit.....IIRC, Twitter killed off Rowan Atkinson last year....so lets hope Mel's as dead as Rowan....
Looks like a hoax, from a new IP address. Nothing from mainstream sources...
The LDs best bets in 2015 are probably Oxford West, Truro&Falmouth and Camborne&Redruth. The latter in particular is rather working-class for a Tory seat.
She was the obvious choice given the shortlist (and the applicants). Carlotta already posted the link about one of the competitors. The third shortlisted woman was a former Tory from Ealing
Ah, I forgot it earlier. We have Lancaster and Fleetwood selection today today. Unite is backing Cath Smith. In this case, she's probably a real left winger...given the MPs she worked for.
David Herdson avers that the LDs have a higher activist base than UKIP but I was given to understand that the purples are catching up rather rapidly with Clegg's party in terms of membership numbers.
Will there by "semi targets"? I mean all those Lab seats where LD came relatively close in 2005-10 but failed to gain. It's not that they will aim at win them in 2015. But what's important from a LD point of view is not falling behind too much. Losing by 15% and so being ready to be competitive once Labour become unpopular nationally once again rather than having to start totally from the start 25% behind.
In some of them they didn't collapse at local level in 2011-13 (Ashfield, Hull North, Durham City).
In some cases it will be easier to devote resources at them because there aren't real targets or defences near.
@RodCrosby One big potential gain is where I used to live Oxford W & Abingdon.
The big test is the organisational capabilities of the LDs in the area & in Oxwab they are riding high after taking a big council by-election seat from the Tories a fortnight ago.
St Albans also looks promising.
There will be so few target seats because the primary focus will be on retaining what they have.
The LDs best bets in 2015 are probably Oxford West, Truro&Falmouth and Camborne&Redruth. The latter in particular is rather working-class for a Tory seat.
In fact, a quite bizarre discussion between Ed and Geoff Boycott on the merits of Roger Federer's tennis abilities is taking place in the commentary box...
Will there by "semi targets"? I mean all those Lab seats where LD came relatively close in 2005-10 but failed to gain. It's not that they will aim at win them in 2015. But what's important from a LD point of view is not falling behind too much. Losing by 15% and so being ready to be competitive once Labour become unpopular nationally once again rather than having to start totally from the start 25% behind.
@RodCrosby One big potential gain is where I used to live Oxford W & Abingdon.
The big test is the organisational capabilities of the LDs in the area & in Oxwab they are riding high after taking a big council by-election seat from the Tories a fortnight ago.
St Albans also looks promising.
There will be so few target seats because the primary focus will be on retaining what they have.
I suppose there will be a fair few seats that aren't close enough to any seat they might actually win to be able to ship the activists over there, so they may as well compete in those.
But once thing I think this thread is missing is that there's a real possibility of a complete, cataclysmic wipe-out. I know they just managed to hold on in Eastleigh, but a lot of their incumbency advantage probably comes from people thinking they're basically pretty decent. If half their former voters now think they're shit, and the other half still like them but are generally unenthused about the whole thing, they are not going to have a happy election. They don't have the luxury of dreaming about theoretical pick-ups in 2020; They need to optimize for the maxi-minibus outcome in 2015.
The best thing(s) about Test Match Special by far are the strangled cackles coming from the back of the commentary box as Boycott recounts his aged anecdotes.
I'm 75% Muslim, apparently. It's quite a good de-mystifying survey, but it avoids some of the rather basic questions like "Do you think there is a god of any kind?" It's more of a test of whether you share a range of general attitudes with Muslims.
First time incumbents (may be harder to shift than on paper). Edinburgh West Eastbourne Wells Eastleigh St Austell & Newquay Chippenham Redcar Bradford East
Comments
I thought the guy in the giant chicken outfit yesterday was a good example of the genre.
We could have a bit of fun competition and try to get a PB dot com banner on the TV.
They were awful with education.
A total of 13 officials – police, firemen and RSPCA officers – turned up unannounced in six vehicles at 70-year-old John Spicer’s home and broke down the door to get in while he was asleep.
His sheepdogs Puppy and Little Boy were taken away and Puppy was destroyed immediately.
Mr Spicer was arrested on suspicion of causing unnecessary suffering to an animal.
He had his fingerprints, DNA and mugshot taken and was held in a police cell for 24 hours before being released.
Yesterday he criticised the RSPCA for being heavy-handed and said he has still not been told what has happened to Little Boy.
‘The whole episode was a total over-reaction,’ Mr Spicer said. ‘I was asleep inside and the first thing I knew was a torch being shone six inches from my face by a police officer.
‘I was put barefoot in the back of a police van and told I was being arrested. I was in a cell at a police station for 24 hours.
Mr Spicer, who lives in the village of Gobowen near Oswestry, Shropshire, was released after being questioned by officers from the animal welfare charity.
Yesterday an RSPCA spokesman refused to say whether Mr Spicer would face prosecution as the investigation is ongoing.
His ordeal began at around 5pm on July 8 when two RSPCA officers in separate vans, two constables, a sergeant and two PCSOs from West Mercia Police in two cars and a van, plus a fire engine with six firemen on board, turned up at his whitewashed terraced home.
After using a fire engine ladder to peer inside an upstairs window, they broke down the door and let themselves in.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2370853/Police-RSPCA-firemen-turn-mob-handed-seize-vet-70-claim-cruel-dogs.html#ixzz2ZZtKPOBS
Theses case are on the increase. Since when has the RSPCA had the authority to act like min-police or even the STASI - this needs reining in by the Home Sec.
Incumbency does matter in local elections, less so in national ones. Nationally it seems to be just a couple of percent, though of course this varies from seat to seat and may be crucial.
There is also negative incumbency which may affect some seats such as Danny Alexander. It nearly did for Ed Balls in 2010.
I am currently planning a wasted vote for the LDs. I live in a safe seat and do not like my MP.
Data for ITV EdM poll
Ed Miliband does not come across as an election winner
Agree:57; Disagree: 18; DK: 25.
The Labour Party understands the concerns of ordinary people better than the Conservatives do
Agree: 42; Disagree: 36; DK: 22
Labour would have a better chance in the next General Election without Ed Miliband as Party leader
Agree: 42; Disagree: 28:DK: 30
Labour can't be trusted to run the economy
Agree: 46;Disagree: 30; DK: 24
The Labour Party would be more electable with David Miliband as its leader
Agree:31; Disagree: 27; DK: 42
I would prefer a Labour/Liberal Democrat Coalition to a majority Labour Government
Agree: 31; Disagree: 43; DK: 26
I would prefer a Labour/Liberal Democrat Coalition to a Conservative/Liberal Democrat Coalition
Agree: 33; Disagree: 43;DK: 23
I expect Ed Miliband to be the next Prime Minister in 2015
Agree: 22; Disagree: 46; DK: 32
Which of the following, if any, would be the most likely to lead the Conservative Party to win the next General Election?
DC: 27; BJ: 19; TM: 4; WH:3; MG: 1; GO:1;PH: 1; Other: 2;
Don't think anyone could lead the CP to win the next GE: 19;
DK: 22.
Do you, or would you, trust each of the following politicians to see the country through the current economic situation?
GO: Yes:24;NO: 54; DK:22
DC: Yes:36; No: 46; DK:18
NC: Yes:17; NO: 63; DK:21
EdM: Yes:20; No: 56; DK:24
EdB: Yes:18; NO: 58;DK;24
I genuinely care
He has another opinion
You post partisan claptrap
Cardiff Central is very likely to be held by the Lib Dems but it will be a close fight . The Welsh Assembly result in 2011 was a virtual deadheat between Lib Dems and Labour but the results in the 6 council wards making up the parliamentary seat in 2012 had the Lib Dems well in the lead . Brecon was comfortably held by the Lib Dems in the 2011 Welsh Assembly .
Mark:
I happen (for my sins) to have lived in Wales for the last 6 years and am using on-the-ground knowledge.
First 2011 is a long time ago in political terms. Since then Plaid has had a new leader - and a bit of a bounce -,but the Welsh LibDem leader is nigh invisible - as in the Welsh Con leader.
Also Welsh Council and AM elections are not a reliable guide to a GE result. For instance the upcoming election for an AM at Ynys Mon (Anglesey) will not be a reliable guide to 2015 due to the large number of independents.
In Ceredigion, Plaid lead the Council after the last local elections, but would you suggest that Mark Williams (LD) will lose his seat in 2015?
In S.Wales, Labour has woken up and are starting to try to improve education but at the same time do daft things like buying Cardiff airport - it is likely that all Cardiff seats will go Labour.
Plaid led Ceredigion council in 2008 also and with a 5% greater vote share than they managed in 2012 . I would agree that Cardiff Central will be close but incumbency and a squeeze on the Conservative vote should see Jenny Wilmott home .
Incidently , the Ynys Mon Welsh Assembly by election on August 1st has no Independent candidates standing at all , for someone who has on the ground knowledge from living in Wales , you do not seem to be on the ball .
Mark: I am quite aware of that but the Council has a lot of Independent members and where that vote will go is anyone's guess.
FYI 2013 Council elections: PC12; Independents 9, Labour 3; LD 1;
Other Independents 5.
The Council had been under administration for over a year due to political infighting, maladministration and other misdemeanors.
"Theses case are on the increase. Since when has the RSPCA had the authority to act like min-police or even the STASI - this needs reining in by the Home Sec."
If you had read the article and looked at the picture of the half dead dog being carried out on a stretcher and you understood that those who work for the RSPCA ACTUALLY care about animal welfare and if you could temper your need to regurgitate stories from the Daily Mail about their pet hate figures-however absurd-you might have avoided making such a ridiculous post.
Rock solid
Safe
Marginal
Not a prayer
which may not coincide exactly with the numerical majorities.
For the rock-solid category I offer up:-
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
Orkney and Shetland
Sheffield Hallam
Twickenham
Westmoreland
Bath
Norfolk North
Roxburgh & Berwickshire
Yeovil
Leeds NW
Colchester
Hazel Grove
Thornbury & Yate
Fife NE
"They took away 12-year-old Puppy, which had been suffering ill health due to a spinal injury and had partly lost the use of its legs, as well as ten-year-old Little Boy, Puppy’s brother, claiming they were not being looked after properly.
But Mr Spicer, who was a vet for 30 years, said he had been treating Puppy’s illness, which he described as ‘complicated,’ himself and the dog had been improving.
He said: ‘The police decided there was no case to prosecute. I’ve heard nothing since from the RSPCA.’"
"The Labour Party understands the concerns of ordinary people better than the Conservatives do
Agree: 42; Disagree: 36; DK: 22"
Wouldn't it be interesting for balance if the next question was:
"The Conservative Party understands the concerns of ordinary people better than the Labour Party do......................"
Because there's know way of knowing the answer from the first question alone.
" But Mr Spicer, who was a vet for 30 years, said he had been treating Puppy’s illness, which he described as ‘complicated,’ himself and the dog had been improving.
He said: ‘The police decided there was no case to prosecute. I’ve heard nothing since from the RSPCA.’
Mr Spicer, a bachelor, added that he doesn’t know how he will live without his dogs. ‘I’ve not lived in my house without a dog for 30 years,’ he said. ‘At some stage it is going to hit me that the house is empty.’
Neighbour Mark Breeze, 47, said: ‘I’ve never seen John mistreat an animal in my life, he always looks after his dogs very well. He’s very cut up about it.’"
Southport
Inverness
Lewes
Carshalton
Kingston & Surbiton
Portsmouth South
Cambridge
North Southwark & Bermondsey
Caithness
Ceredigion
Bristol West
Cardiff Central
@Fitilass
"How could they not comprehend that its the Scots Dad's prejudices that are being sent up in this Irn Bru advert?
They're not sending up the prejudices of the Dad or the boys they're just making a joke at the expense of a stereotype which is always the last refuge of an an advertising copywriter. Here's a more sexist (and funnier) example
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L11fQ6-QTIc
https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/358535273874853889/photo/1
I think Cambridge might be a harder for the LDs to defend than you think. This is a seat that in recent years has had CON, LAB and now LD MPs
Last time it was Montgomeryshire and Oxford West.
https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/358436130389106688
Like the police in everyday cases, the inspectors will sometimes get it wrong, but that's not a reason to condemn the whole system. As with social workers removing children who they believe are being mistreated, the RSPCA is damned if it does and damned if it doesn't, but it's hard to see a better way of tackling alleged cruelty. There are people who don't like the RSPCA for other reasons (that they're anti-hunting, or conversely that they aren't liberationist enough) but the inspectorate on the whole does a good job which the police would really struggle with.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceredigion_County_Council_election,_2012
Edinburgh West
Berwick on Tweed
Eastbourne
Mid-Dorset
Taunton Deane
Gordon
Sutton & Cheam
Solihull
Cheadle
Eastleigh
Hornsey & Wood Green
St Ives
St Austell & Newquay
Chippenham
North Devon
Somerton & Frome
Birmingham Yardley
Brecon & Radnor
Argyll & Bute
Wells
North Cornwall
Torbay
West Aberdeenshire
Redcar
Brent Central
Bradford East
North Cornwall
and "Not a prayer"
Norwich South
Withington
Burnley
East Dunbartonshire
The Daily Mail Comment - Hacking, hypocrisy and a flawed inquiry
hold all the rock solid
hold 80% of the safe
lose 80% of the marginals
and lose all of the "not a prayer", which I think is the worst case scenario.
I make that 28 seats lost, reducing them to 29.
A more reasonable calculation might be hold 90% of the safe and lose 50% of the marginals, which brings them to 19 losses and 38 holds.
I suspect they will do slightly better than that on the day...
Plaid 38.85% down from 43.2% in 2008
Lib Dem 24.97% up from 24.3% in 2008
Plaid fought 6 more wards than the Lib Dems in both 2008 and 2012
"He said: ‘The police decided there was no case to prosecute. I’ve heard nothing since from the RSPCA.’"
...And from the article;
'Yesterday an RSPCA spokesman refused to say whether Mr Spicer would face prosecution as the investigation is ongoing.'
Don't confuse the Mail spin (ie the arrested man who says 'there will be no prosecution') and the actual story which as with all Mail hate stories you have to find by reading between the lines and using a tiny bit of common sense.
"I agree with you but of course it's Sod's Law that they'll lose at least one of those."
Inverness we all hope
Of the seats you give I would say only Southport and Southwark were 'safe' and Labour will likely put up a good performance against Hughes!
IIRC, Harriet Harman was quite critical of Ed Miliband's lack of progress in putting together the Labour manifesto before the last GE, so he definitely has previous form for this kind of behaviour.
Are we completely ruling out any LD gain? If so, it would - with the exception of 1970 - be the first time since 1955 that they would not score a gain...
That's only 3.3 runs an over, you know.
The RSPCA certainly didn't hesitate to put the dog on their equivalent of the NHS Pathway. Thankfully we're not yet at the stage were people are subjected to dawn raids for attempting to prolong the life of sick elderly relatives at home.
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/in-brief/6511-poll-of-polls-shows-snp-ahead-of-labour-for-westminster
http://www.purnasen.org.uk/
So sad @KathyLette: R.I.P. Mel Smith. Sorry to bring sad and bad news, but apparently he died from heart attack in his sleep.”
One big potential gain is where I used to live Oxford W & Abingdon.
The big test is the organisational capabilities of the LDs in the area & in Oxwab they are riding high after taking a big council by-election seat from the Tories a fortnight ago.
St Albans also looks promising.
There will be so few target seats because the primary focus will be on retaining what they have.
http://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2013/07/19/labour-poised-to-choose-parliamentary-candidate-for-brighton-pavilion/22599
BBC - Election countdown: 94 weeks to go
(Sorry about the silly posts, I've had a few drinks at lunchtime, which is unusual for me, to celebrate England's performance at Lords).
I remember when he appeared on Mastermind a couple of years ago and seemed to be suffering from a serious illness.
Nothing from mainstream sources...
I got a surprising 81%
http://www.areyoumuslim.com/
http://news.sky.com/story/1118170/frankie-boyle-on-hunger-strike-for-prisoner
http://www.purnasen.org.uk/
Edit: I've been beaten.
She was the obvious choice given the shortlist (and the applicants). Carlotta already posted the link about one of the competitors. The third shortlisted woman was a former Tory from Ealing
Ah, I forgot it earlier. We have Lancaster and Fleetwood selection today today. Unite is backing Cath Smith. In this case, she's probably a real left winger...given the MPs she worked for.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23390982
*cough*Danishcartoons*cough*
I was 58%, which is balderdash.
One of them should of course be... Cheltenham!
I mean all those Lab seats where LD came relatively close in 2005-10 but failed to gain. It's not that they will aim at win them in 2015. But what's important from a LD point of view is not falling behind too much. Losing by 15% and so being ready to be competitive once Labour become unpopular nationally once again rather than having to start totally from the start 25% behind.
In some of them they didn't collapse at local level in 2011-13 (Ashfield, Hull North, Durham City).
In some cases it will be easier to devote resources at them because there aren't real targets or defences near.
http://www.willtowin.org.uk/
In fact, a quite bizarre discussion between Ed and Geoff Boycott on the merits of Roger Federer's tennis abilities is taking place in the commentary box...
But once thing I think this thread is missing is that there's a real possibility of a complete, cataclysmic wipe-out. I know they just managed to hold on in Eastleigh, but a lot of their incumbency advantage probably comes from people thinking they're basically pretty decent. If half their former voters now think they're shit, and the other half still like them but are generally unenthused about the whole thing, they are not going to have a happy election. They don't have the luxury of dreaming about theoretical pick-ups in 2020; They need to optimize for the maxi-minibus outcome in 2015.
First time incumbents (may be harder to shift than on paper).
Edinburgh West
Eastbourne
Wells
Eastleigh
St Austell & Newquay
Chippenham
Redcar
Bradford East
No clear challenger
Argyll & Bute