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The biggest and longest-lasting movement in opinion polling since the 2010 general election has been the loss of at least half of the Lib Dem vote, most of which has gone to Labour. By contrast, despite the spending restraint and what at times has been a strained relationship between the Conservatives and their traditional supporters, the last YouGov poll showed only a 1% direct net swing from …
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You might as well vote for the real thing and know (roughly) what you're getting than risk the Yellow rabble muddying the waters.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/
Although HS2 is an interesting suggestion, IMO this is a better idea in the long-term, namely MagLev:
http://www.500kmh.com/
http://www.maglevuk.org/
We're in austerity. Okay - wait a few year years until the public finances have been sorted out.
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/351634/description/Sound_waves_put_levitation_on_the_move
and power it with nuclear fusion while you're at it
(probably still cheaper than west coast main line upgrade)
I'm assuming your reference to "Dave and the Boneheads" is completely impartial?
The other small problem for lib dem activists in some seats is when they try to persuade labour voters to vote tactically to keep the tories out. Can anyone see a tiny flaw in that plan after the coalition? The laughter that will greet them on many doorsteps may provide a clue.
Nobody expects the lib dems to cease as a party yet the quite remarkable complacency with which Clegg seems to be running the show right now does not bode well for them at all.
Some of the hits they are taking will take far longer than just a couple of years to rebuild yet the bizarre bubble thinking from Clegg and his inner circle seems totally oblivious to just how dangerous things could get. It is no small thing to rebuild from an electoral hammering yet the complete lack of urgency and lackadaisical attitude from Clegg would lead you to believe everything was just peachy with the lib dems. That is far from the case.
Relying on any feel-good factor from the economy was also mooted as a possible mitigating factor back when the coalition was in it's earliest days. That would depend on there being a feel-good factor large enough to profit from and that the voter will reward the lib dems for it rather than the tories. Neither of which can be relied upon.
Will some lib dem MPs be shielded from the worst effects of Clegg's leadership and the coalition by local activists where they are still strong? Undoubtedly. It's just a question of how many because it certainly won't be anywhere near all of them.
We should invest in it immediately! Drop all other transport projects and work on teleportation! It's the future!
Anyone wanting to invest on the basis of my beautiful website (www.teleportationishere.con) can send me some cash. Preferably in brown envelopes, as apparently I'm a PB Tory ...
(1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_teleportation
With the Tour de France currently ongoing, and with a high possibility of a British winner, I'd just like to congratulate the Times for their cycle safe campaign.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/public/cyclesafety/
This section is notably not under their paywall, and includes a large number of cycling stories.
I've been doing much more cycling this year as time has not allowed me to do much of my beloved hiking, and I have seen many bad cyclists, walkers and car drivers on the roads. Education of cyclists' needs are needed by everyone (including some cyclists), and the Times is doing a good job at that.
Well done to them.
"Bernhard Carl Trautmann was born in Bremen, Germany, on October 22 1923, the elder son of a chemical loader at the docks. He grew up during the hyperinflationary period of the Weimar Republic,..."
"Grew up during"? Er, that would be the hyperinflation period which ended when he was 25 days old, then? Nice to see the DT upholding the highest standards of quality journalism.
http://metro.co.uk/2013/07/10/anti-english-irn-bru-advert-gets-off-scot-free-3877896/?ITO=news-sitemap
Of course, if David is corrrect, what it also means is that to win outright in 2015 the Tories have to take seats from Labour while persuading left-leaning 2010 LDs not to abandon the LDs in Tory marginals where Labour is challenging, Lynton Crosby's rightward turn may not be the best way of doing that as it concentrates the minds of centre-left voters and probably makes them more determined to vote for the party best placed to beat the Tory candidate.
"According to documents obtained by The Sunday Times, Mr Packer's venture hired Michael Stephenson, a former adviser to Prime Minister Tony Blair, to lobby for the changes.
The paper said these efforts included a visit to Mr Packer's Crown Casino in Melbourne by a British minister and MPs charged with scrutinising the new laws, and culminated in meetings with Treasury and Culture Department officials last year."
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/packers-hand-in-uks-liberalised-gambling-laws/2005/10/16/1129401144722.html
See? Two can play this game.....
http://youtu.be/fX_K4mNTTI8
"It is clear that without the LD presence we would have had the most viciously right-wing government this country has seen for many a long year."
Can you remind us which of the government measures are Labour pledging to reverse?
In general the LDs have proven to be somewhat unreliable coalition allies who put their own political foibles ahead of the economic and cultural good of the electorate.
Labour in opposition has changed many of the policies it espoused in government - it's what oppositions do.
Ed Miliband: -32
Ed Balls: -26
So I guess EdM should fire himself before he fires EdB?
"Look what we managed to achieve while held back by the perfidious LD's. Imagine what we could do if we where running things ourselves"
P.S. Mike, your slip is showing. For someone who claims to be independent and runs his website as such, it's becoming more obvious as things improve for the Tories/Coalition, that you don't like it.
"So you can go on about Labour being lobbied by one of Milibands former aides as much as you want,"
don't worry tim I will. I don't get the timing of this attack - or was it forced on Labour by LC ?- but launching the attack when Parlt is out and the summer started doesn't look that clever. No doubt it will resume in September, but even the dogs in the street will be waiting for that one so I don't think Crosby will hang around waiting for his next kicking like DC did over Newscorp, Ed might find his own ribs a bit bruised by the end of it.
The BBC simply doesn't get it. I do feel fortunate that I don't have to pay the licence fee for this nonsense
In Westminster terms, how many LibDem seats saw more than their current majority over the Tories shaved off from their 2005 majority? It is easy to say someone is not going to fall over the precipice but if in fact they have slipped from having a handhold to just being held up by their fingernails, those fingernails will eventually give way. Everything suggests the Scottish LibDem seats will experience a "bloodbath" and I would not be surprised to hear John Thurso, Charles Kennedy, Ming Campbell and Malcolm Bruce all announce they are standing down. Whether any of their seats will revert to their former Conservative status (except C,S &R) will largely depend on whether the Tories hold on to all their current voters, attract back some of the Tory to LibDem switchers and the other switchers be spread among the other parties.
I would be interested to hear what others think will happen in Somerset, Devon and Cornwall and to Twickenham, especially if Vince Cable retires.
Historical Pictures @HistoricalPics
1956: A 5 megabyte IBM harddisk is loaded into an airplane. It weighed over a 1000kg pic.twitter.com/heZ182k8Jr
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPmSRa7CUAAJioA.jpg:large
I could understand it if Labour started and then pushed on hard, but taking a break to enjoy the summer, seems a bit odd.
Ed Miliband is a weak leader : 46 - total base and 2010 Lib Dems..
Just 22 per cent expect him to win the next election – the first in a series of unhappy findings for Mr Miliband after weeks of controversy over Labour’s links to the trades unions.
To add to Mr Miliband’s woes, his business spokesman Chuka Umunna, tipped as a future Labour leader, was reported last night to have started seeing Tony Blair regularly.
According to a ComRes poll for ITV News, the majority of the British public – 57 per cent – do not see Mr Miliband as an election winner.
Twice as many – 42 per cent – agree that Labour would have a better chance in 2015 without him as the 20 per cent who disagree. With polls suggesting Britain may be on course for another hung parliament, 43 per cent said they would prefer another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition to the 33 per cent who favour a Lib-Lab pact.
Almost half of voters, some 46 per cent, say that Labour cannot be trusted to run the economy, a figure that is unchanged from last year and suggests the party has made no headway on the key issue.
One crumb of comfort for Mr Miliband is that the public are slightly less likely to say that Labour would be more electable with David Miliband as its leader than they were last year. Some 31 per cent agree – down six points from last September.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2370891/Fewer-voters-believes-Ed-Miliband-Britains-Prime-Minister.html#ixzz2ZZCCrype
"Fewer than one in four voters think Ed Miliband will be prime minister in 2015, according to a new poll.
Just 22 per cent expect him to win the next election – the first in a series of unhappy findings for Mr Miliband after weeks of controversy over Labour’s links to the trades unions.
To add to Mr Miliband’s woes, his business spokesman Chuka Umunna, tipped as a future Labour leader, was reported last night to have started seeing Tony Blair regularly."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2370891/Fewer-voters-believes-Ed-Miliband-Britains-Prime-Minister.html#ixzz2ZZCnwc1e
Cardiff Central is very likely to be held by the Lib Dems but it will be a close fight . The Welsh Assembly result in 2011 was a virtual deadheat between Lib Dems and Labour but the results in the 6 council wards making up the parliamentary seat in 2012 had the Lib Dems well in the lead . Brecon was comfortably held by the Lib Dems in the 2011 Welsh Assembly .
Argyll has the look of Inverness 1983 with any one of 4 parties capable of winning.
On paper Berwickshire would be another Tory gain but Michael Moore as Scottish Secretary has a high profile so he should probably survive ok.
Edinburgh West looks like a 3-way marginal which Labour would take if the polls are right about LibDem 2010 voters.
If Ming Campbell retires, NE Fife would be another Argyll and anyone could win.
Gordon should go SNP if Malcolm Bruce retires.
I think Danny Alexander will hold on and perhaps more comfortably than the polls suggest
Alistair Carmichael would need an earthquake to remove him from the Northern Isles.
If Charles Kennedy retires then his seat could be a 3 way marginal. The Tories would be 4th.
Realistically if the Scottish Tories hold their existing seat they will do well and if they go up to 3 seats that would be a "major" success.
Two slightly different points. First, I sense a decline in sheer dislike of politicians at the moment. I've been saying for some time that people think we're all rubbish - they still do, but the venom is seeping away. Cameron's ratings are up from catastrophic to merely bad. The reaction to the £75K pay proposal was strong but brief and not sustained - the parties don't feel they have to stop it or get lynched. There is also a general sense (which may not be entirely accurate) that the economy has tottered through the worst. If that's true, it is probably bad news for UKIP, who are powered particularly by a sense of outrage, and hence good news for the Tories.
Second, the reason I don't think we'll see swingback on the scale of previous Parliaments is that Labour hasn't been mopping up the frothy anti-government vote. The votes we've won since 2010 are, as Mike keeps saying, primarily angry left-wing LibDems, and they aren't at all frothy, or inclined to swing back because the economy grows 0.7% or they're not sure about Miliband. David's right that they'll do better where they're a main contender (thougheven there they're eroding). But the left-LibDem Parliamentary vote in current Con/Lab marginals has simply gone to Labour - it's as implacable as anything in politics today, and I don't think Cameron or Clegg can do anything about it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2369732/Royal-baby-watch-Mac--The-imminent-birth.html
My McARSE prediction for the Scottish LibDems is presently 8.
However this figure should be treated with a little caution as a number of possible retirees have yet to disclose their hand. So 8 or fewer is my most accurate answer.
Probably a reasonable summary but ...
EdM has to survive an election campaign and emerge as a credible PM. That famous Sheffield rally wasn't the reason Kinnock lost, it was just an excuse for what was already happening. The media character examination/assassination had already done its job. Ed has the same problem and he's not as prime ministerial as Kinnock.
These sort of insults stick only if there is a justification for them. Ken L was demonised at one stage but it didn't work so well as he does have a sort of ruthless charm. Ed? I'm sure his mother loves him.
In town yesterday I bumped into an ex-LD councillor whom I'd not seen for years. He was still active in the party but told me he would almost certainly vote LAB at the general election.
Like many known LDs in this super LAB-CON marginal (majority 1353) he'd been personally canvassed by the ex-Lab MP who is standing again. Their effort seems very focused on LDs and they've got good database records
The Tories are doing sod all.
Interesting.
"The visceral loathing of Gove (and increasingly Hunt) among these swing voters is something to be believed"
Who? I'm probably a lot more clued up than most of the population, but I struggle to remember who's who. It's really just the leaders that matter.
Ed's problem is Ed. Were he to host a serious summit with Obama, Putin and whoever the Chinese send, the big three would issue a communique while Ed made the teas and coffees.
He may be ruthless and he may be determined but he's a soft shite at heart. I never knew Jack Kennedy, I never worked with Jack Kennedy, but even so ...
The ComRes EdM poll would have been a lot more convincing if the same quesions had been put about Cameron, Clegg and Farage as well.
The overall questioning scheme looks leading
" But the left-LibDem Parliamentary vote in current Con/Lab marginals has simply gone to Labour -"
Also in the CON/LIB seat of York outer , the labour voters now know its not a winnable seat so will not even try to stop the conservatives like they did in 2010, this will apply in others.
The economy around here also seems to be improving, with the local labour council getting a lot of credit see the article .
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21581722-ancient-city-has-found-recipe-post-industrial-success-northern-light
So the City of York will remain Labour, York Outer Conservative.
I don't know about other places but the CON organisation is Bedford which is Labour 20th top CON target is very poor. The ex CON parliamentary candidate and former CON group leader has now switched to UKIP and the rumour is that she'll stand for the purples.
She has a very large personal vote and her own organisational network.
In 2009 she was expelled from the party by Cameron after widely reported comments attacking the way the Tory primary for a mayoral candidate had been organised.
Bedford is now a LAB cert.
"MPs slammed Britain’s FBI yesterday after it claimed publishing a list of law firms, insurance companies and big businesses involved in hacking would breach human rights."
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5024009/Fury-as-cops-keep-big-firm-hackers-a-secret.html#ixzz2ZZWBTojp
Will Ed call for a "Judge led Enquiry"?
Milliband does not look the part.
So that is what we will be hearing for 2 years.
That said I think your expectations for them next time are low. I still think 35-40 is reasonable for them and I'm saying this as someone who'd love to see them annihilated after the way the leadership has behaved. Or would I? After all the blues would be the main beneficeries. The rational thing would be for Labour supporters in the South West to hold their nose and vote Lib Dem. But voters aren't always completely rational of course.
Regarding the point Mr Herdson makes about their councillor base, it has lost 50% of the seats that they held at their peak. In Scotland and Wales that 50% loss happened in 2011.
We also read about these LD "strongholds" such as Eastleigh. In the May local elections they lost 3 of their 6 county seats to UKIP. They now have just 3 of the 7 seats with Ukip holding 3 and Conservatives 1. Yes they did win the by election, but with just 32% of the votes. Whilst they should hold Eastleigh at the GE (1st time incumbent), other "strongholds" have been similarly weakened.
Who are you predicting to lose? Swinson, Bruce and Moore?
*Yes I know that in ye olde days we had to wait three generations to get a phone etc.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b2e9e3a6-ef46-11e2-bb27-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ZYhZXKkZ
Awesome bit of bike control by Vos the Boss. Question is, what was a pot hole doing just in front of the finish line?
http://vimeo.com/69596492
If any of the other oldish LibDems is thinking about retirement, he should announce by the end of the year to give the new PPC more than 1 year to build the profile.
Today
Erewash (AWS)
Battersea
Brighton Pavilion (AWS)
Tomorrow
Croydon Central (AWS)
Gravesham
Len doesn't particularly care about any of them.
Presently I'm looking at shortlisting Eastleigh in the "JackW Dozen" for the 2015 GE. These will be 12 marginal seats that should point the way to a final result. I may offer a thread on the subject !!
So far only Broxtowe has made the cut ....
Titters ....
On EdM, on the other hand, only 28% of 2010 Lib Dems 'don't know', while 52% think he's doing "badly".....
No news from Eastleigh's bunker so far!
I happen (for my sins) to have lived in Wales for the last 6 years and am using on-the-ground knowledge.
First 2011 is a long time ago in political terms. Since then Plaid has had a new leader - and a bit of a bounce -,but the Welsh LibDem leader is nigh invisible - as in the Welsh Con leader.
Also Welsh Council and AM elections are not a reliable guide to a GE result. For instance the upcoming election for an AM at Ynys Mon (Anglesey) will not be a reliable guide to 2015 due to the large number of independents.
In Ceredigion, Plaid lead the Council after the last local elections, but would you suggest that Mark Williams (LD) will lose his seat in 2015?
In S.Wales, Labour has woken up and are starting to try to improve education but at the same time do daft things like buying Cardiff airport - it is likely that all Cardiff seats will go Labour.
There were plenty on show down the beach last night. Oh my eyes.
"The ComRes EdM poll would have been a lot more convincing if the same quesions had been put about Cameron, Clegg and Farage as well."
I wondered the same thing. It's as though they were trying to prove a point about Ed. Unusual for a TV News Channel-even ITV.
Miliband acts as if a single speech were enough to shut down a problem when, as Blair understood, no message even begins to penetrate until it has been repeated a thousand times."
Daily Telegraph
Daily Mail
Sun
Times
Daily Express
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/19/summer-labour-tories-hog-fuelled?CMP=twt_gu
They are already the oldest Lib Dem (or Lib) MPs in more than 50 years...
While there is some benefit to having local council presence and incumbency it is a fairly small effect compared to national polling figures. With the locals next year on the same day as the Euros we are likely to see further losses of LD councilors.
The LDs in govt (with the exception of the empty vessel Vince Cable) have impressed me, and I do not think need be ashamed of their role in govt. The europhobic tendencies of the headbangers in the conservative party give some scope for votes to be peeled off from centrist conservatives, as in Cl eggs seat which was recently a safe Tory seat. Campaigning as fellow travelers of Miliband here would be neither plausible or wise.
The LD campaign risks being incoherent and prone to splits if the Smithsonites turn their loathing on the pro-coalitionites. I think the LDs will lose about 20 seats, to a mix of Tories, Labour, SNP and possibly to UKIP in Eastleigh. While they may hold the balance of power in 2015 they will not be plausible power brokers having lost so many seats and a big share of the popular vote.
Good article by DH as per usual.
F1: my mid-season review of the racing (with a look ahead to the second half of 2013 and beyond) is up at:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/mid-season-review-racing.html
and
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/mid-season-review-racing.html
Will the Tories vote tactically for the LibDem? It's probably in their long-term interests to do so...
charlie whelan@charliewhelan58m
Too many Tories #lords yesterday. An all Labour team with me today. At least didn't bump into Cameron in pavilion, he's not a member #ashes
This does, I think, hold for some but not that many issues that have been the sort of thing campaigned by the LibDem near me, (Sir) Bob Russell. There's plenty left - from discussing schools, potholes, transport, local housing, and other administrative decisions in the remit of local authorities.
I'm still thinking about the best spectating strategy.
Either watch it roll through Epping and dash home to watch the rest on TV, or head up to central London and find a spot near one of the big screens.
What's the point of wasting your general election vote?
Incumbency matters enormously in these contests.