Scotland has hardly any e.u migration compared to England and her only policy is to be as different to England as she can get away with to reach her ends of leaving the U.K, and Farron is only aiming to gain seats where there are large number of posh Remoaners. Neither are aiming to become PM like Corbyn.
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
We are?
Well you're enjoying the California sunshine, but the British political class over here is inching forwards.
Thanks to the internet, geographic location is no longer a constraint on keeping up with things!
What's the weather over there at the moment? In town next week (are you free for a drink?).
Sunny now, but was raining/dull for quite an extended period earlier this week. Out of town next week actually.. in our profession our job interviews are convoluted and extended affairs, so I'm spending the week in Chicago trying to impress a prospective employer!
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
We are?
Well you're enjoying the California sunshine, but the British political class over here is inching forwards.
Thanks to the internet, geographic location is no longer a constraint on keeping up with things!
What's the weather over there at the moment? In town next week (are you free for a drink?).
Sunny now, but was raining/dull for quite an extended period earlier this week. Out of town next week actually.. in our profession our job interviews are convoluted and extended affairs, so I'm spending the week in Chicago trying to impress a prospective employer!
You always find an excuse... last time it was a short notice trip to Chile
Macron would appear to have some momentum, compared to results from same polling company about 6 weeks ago. Was previously polling mid teens, is now polling high teens to early 20's.
Fillon, on the other hand appears to be slipping back a little. In their previous poll he was polling 30-31 and now he is generally mid twenties in most of the various scenarios.
Fillon is on 23% with Bayrou as a candidate and 26% without him as a candidate with Valls as PS candidate, Le Pen on 22% and 23% respectively.
Agree that Valls getting through and Bayrou running is the worst case scenario for Macron, but even then he is up two points from the previous poll by the same company. So he at least has some upward momentum. Fillon, however, has dropped 8 points from 31 to 23 in that same scenario.
The gap between Fillon and Macron has closed by 10 points in six weeks. So i would say that the momentum is definitely with Macron and against Fillon. If Bayrou decides not to run or if Valls slips up in the Primary, it will start looking rather tight.
Macron's only chance of getting into round 2 in my view is if Valls loses the primary, so you are right on that but Valls leads the polls for the PS contest at the moment and the primary is just a few weeks away. If Valls does lose the primary and Macron makes it through to round 2 he would have a chance of beating Fillon as the candidate of the centre and left if it is a Macron v Fillon race. However he would also be easier for Le Pen to beat than Fillon as she would then be the candidate of the right and he would be the candidate of the centre left, so a Macron v Le Pen race makes a Le Pen presidency more likely (albeit not quite as likely as a Valls v Le Pen or Melenchon v Le Pen race)
I reckon if Fillon keeps hemorrhaging support the way he has done in the past month or so, it won't matter if Valls is in it or not. But we shall see.
Fillon is still over 20% in every scenario in that poll, without Valls Macron is below 20%, plus Valls will likely get a small bounce once he becomes candidate
He was 30% or over in every scenario in the previous poll. The election itself is 4-5 months away and I am sure there will be many twists and turns before then, but Fillons momentum at the moment is going southwards rapidly, I am sure there will be a floor to his support, but not sure where that floor is.
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
We are?
Well you're enjoying the California sunshine, but the British political class over here is inching forwards.
Thanks to the internet, geographic location is no longer a constraint on keeping up with things!
What's the weather over there at the moment? In town next week (are you free for a drink?).
Sunny now, but was raining/dull for quite an extended period earlier this week. Out of town next week actually.. in our profession our job interviews are convoluted and extended affairs, so I'm spending the week in Chicago trying to impress a prospective employer!
You always find an excuse... last time it was a short notice trip to Chile
Sorry old boy, you know how it is! Saying that, if drinks came with a tenured job offer I'd be down...
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Perhaps we can clarify it by using the Moh scale for hardness:
I'm finding Mr Brind's thread leader article a bit hard to decipher. He quotes Mr McCluskey thus:
“Let’s suppose we are not having a snap election. It buys into this question of what happens if we get to 2019 and opinion polls are still awful.The truth is everybody would examine that situation, including Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell …. These two are not egomaniacs, they are not desperate to cling on to power for power’s sake.”
And the article ends by saying If McCluskey, Abbott and Livingstone are worried Corbyn should be too.
This seems to suggest that Messrs Corbyn and McDonnell have the same objectives as Ms Abbott & Messrs McCluskey & Livingstone.
There are at least two different levels of 'power' here. From what I've read, Messrs Corbyn & McDonnell have a definite objective in retaining power over the Labour party, which may well supersede their desire for power over the country.
The other three may well be more focussed on the objective of electing a Labour government as soon as possible.
Mr Corbyn has the membership to back him up. I don't see him going anywhere until he's achieved his ends with the Labour party. Grasping at power over the UK can wait until he knows the party will carry on in his own political image. Time enough to set up an electable leader then.
I think your last para sounds spot on - as Blind Pew might have put it
Macron would appear to have some momentum, compared to results from same polling company about 6 weeks ago. Was previously polling mid teens, is now polling high teens to early 20's.
Fillon, on the other hand appears to be slipping back a little. In their previous poll he was polling 30-31 and now he is generally mid twenties in most of the various scenarios.
Fillon is on 23% with Bayrou as a candidate and 26% without him as a candidate with Valls as PS candidate, Le Pen on 22% and 23% respectively.
Agree that Valls getting through and Bayrou running is the worst case scenario for Macron, but even then he is up two points from the previous poll by the same company. So he at least has some upward momentum. Fillon, however, has dropped 8 points from 31 to 23 in that same scenario.
The gap between Fillon and Macron has closed by 10 points in six weeks. So i would say that the momentum is definitely with Macron and against Fillon. If Bayrou decides not to run or if Valls slips up in the Primary, it will start looking rather tight.
Macron's only chance of getting into round 2 in my view is if Valls loses the primary, so you are right on that but Valls)
I reckon if Fillon keeps hemorrhaging support the way he has done in the past month or so, it won't matter if Valls is in it or not. But we shall see.
Fillon is still over 20% in every scenario in that poll, without Valls Macron is below 20%, plus Valls will likely get a small bounce once he becomes candidate
He was 30% or over in every scenario in the previous poll. The election itself is 4-5 months away and I am sure there will be many twists and turns before then, but Fillons momentum at the moment is going southwards rapidly, I am sure there will be a floor to his support, but not sure where that floor is.
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
If you define economic growth in terms of GDP/capita then it's barely moved for the best part of a decade now due to population increases.
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
Notice the RMT have accepted an offer from Chris Grayling of direct talks. Seems a sensible move but think it may have been the PM who pushed Grayling who seems too laid back on the issue of Southern trains
RMT and Aslef are great for their members, but really should be presumed to be acting irresponsibly as regards the greater good. Some of their members take a pretty dim view and positively avoid any involvement. However as they're pretty much a closed shop that can be difficult.
The trains that everyone wants is a great and exciting goal. The trains that government can deliver is perhaps even more exciting. The trains according to the unions are essentially no trains. Quite how it comes about that the unions whose membership is massively pro-trains finishes up being so anti escapes me.
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
If you define economic growth in terms of GDP/capita then it's barely moved for the best part of a decade now due to population increases.
Though barely moved is still better than moved downwards I suppose
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Perhaps we can clarify it by using the Moh scale for hardness:
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
If you define economic growth in terms of GDP/capita then it's barely moved for the best part of a decade now due to population increases.
Though barely moved is still better than moved downwards I suppose
And a technical recession is very technical indeed, if the population reduces at the same time. It's quite possible to see a dip in GDP but a rise in GDP/capita. Most people won't see that as a recession.
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
If you define economic growth in terms of GDP/capita then it's barely moved for the best part of a decade now due to population increases.
The default metric should always be gdp per cap. I mean would you rather be born to an average chinese family or an average Norwegian one ?
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
A pretty dishonest poll altogether given that the definitions of both soft and hard Brexit used are a matter of opinion and ignore other viable options.
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
With such a leading question it's remarkable that as many backed hard Brexit as that. Supporters of hard Brexit argue that it will lead to more money to fund "services like housing, schools and hospitals" even if it won't be the full £350mn nominally named.
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
Looks like Labour are running on local issues particularly the running down of the Cumbrian NHS and a useful summary of the possible candidates. Not sure the source of it all but seems credible.
Labour 2.58 on Betfair exchange looks reasonable value.
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
So that's a majority in favour of free movement and the ECJ. May is going to crash and burn.
Since when was 41% a majority? 47% of Tory voters back hard Brexit, 34% soft Brexit. Most likely though May does something in between, some immigration controls and some budget contributions https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
So that's a majority in favour of free movement and the ECJ. May is going to crash and burn.
No it's not. It's 41% in favour when the alternative is defined as "the economy suffers"
Despite once already having "if you vote Brexit the economy will suffer" been demonstrated as wrong.
Anyone who thinks that hard Brexit will be without impact on the economy is on stronger drugs than the NHS can provide.
That's what was said about an EU Brexit vote.
There is the possibility of the EU reaching a deal that allows the UK to control migration and doesn't see the economy suffer. That doesn't fall in either of those deluded options.
There is also the possibility that we don't reach a deal and the economy doesn't suffer.
When the other option only gets 35%. People don't want to take any economic hit at all, and think that any politician who can't make Brexit happen without smooth economic sailing is incompetent. Something has to break.
There is also the possibility that we don't reach a deal and the economy doesn't suffer.
There really isn't. The fact that politically engaged, relatively sane people can think so is why were are about to be crushed by the weight of the accumulated Brexit bull.
When the other option only gets 35%. People don't want to take any economic hit at all, and think that any politician who can't make Brexit happen without smooth economic sailing is incompetent. Something has to break.
Given the voters of the governing party back hard Brexit by a 13% margin May is obviously not going to do soft Brexit and lose over half her voters to UKIP. So as I said it will most likely be a middle ground between the two ie some budget contributions and some immigration controls eg based on a job offer rather than a points system for some form of trade deal
As a slight aside, the editor of Le Parisien has decided that her newspaper will not fund any polling for the French election following the dismal efforts of UK and US pollsters. She may have said something along the lines of, "Polling? C'est bollocks". Or maybe not.
There is also the possibility that we don't reach a deal and the economy doesn't suffer.
There really isn't. The fact that politically engaged, relatively sane people can think so is why were are about to be crushed by the weight of the accumulated Brexit bull.
There really is. Just because you keep shouting that the sky is falling ever louder doesn't mean that it will.
When the other option only gets 35%. People don't want to take any economic hit at all, and think that any politician who can't make Brexit happen without smooth economic sailing is incompetent. Something has to break.
Given the voters of the governing party back hard Brexit by a 13% margin May is obviously not going to do soft Brexit and lose over half her voters to UKIP. So as I said it will most likely be a middle ground between the two ie some budget contributions and some immigration controls eg based on a job offer rather than a points system for some form of trade deal
You're under the illusion that May is a chooser and not a beggar. The Brexiteers are mendacious mendicants.
When the other option only gets 35%. People don't want to take any economic hit at all, and think that any politician who can't make Brexit happen without smooth economic sailing is incompetent. Something has to break.
Given the voters of the governing party back hard Brexit by a 13% margin May is obviously not going to do soft Brexit and lose over half her voters to UKIP. So as I said it will most likely be a middle ground between the two ie some budget contributions and some immigration controls eg based on a job offer rather than a points system for some form of trade deal
You're under the illusion that May is a chooser and not a beggar. The Brexiteers are mendacious mendicants.
May wants to win the next election and hold her party together so as I said it will be a middle ground between the two in terms of what she offers
When the other option only gets 35%. People don't want to take any economic hit at all, and think that any politician who can't make Brexit happen without smooth economic sailing is incompetent. Something has to break.
Given the voters of the governing party back hard Brexit by a 13% margin May is obviously not going to do soft Brexit and lose over half her voters to UKIP. So as I said it will most likely be a middle ground between the two ie some budget contributions and some immigration controls eg based on a job offer rather than a points system for some form of trade deal
You're under the illusion that May is a chooser and not a beggar. The Brexiteers are mendacious mendicants.
May wants to win the next election and hold her party together so as I said it will be a middle ground between the two in terms of what she offers
Every Prime Minister wants to win the next election. That is hardly a guarantee of success.
There is also the possibility that we don't reach a deal and the economy doesn't suffer.
There really isn't. The fact that politically engaged, relatively sane people can think so is why were are about to be crushed by the weight of the accumulated Brexit bull.
the market in crystal balls (imported ones anyway) is obviously price insensitive since they are making ever wider and more frequent appearances in the possession of some PBers. Yet more evidence that ....... [add your own conclusion as I don't have the balls]
There is also the possibility that we don't reach a deal and the economy doesn't suffer.
There really isn't. The fact that politically engaged, relatively sane people can think so is why were are about to be crushed by the weight of the accumulated Brexit bull.
A view you offer no support for other than the fact that you really, really think it.
As a slight aside, the editor of Le Parisien has decided that her newspaper will not fund any polling for the French election following the dismal efforts of UK and US pollsters. She may have said something along the lines of, "Polling? C'est bollocks". Or maybe not.
When the other option only gets 35%. People don't want to take any economic hit at all, and think that any politician who can't make Brexit happen without smooth economic sailing is incompetent. Something has to break.
Given the voters of the governing party back hard Brexit by a 13% margin May is obviously not going to do soft Brexit and lose over half her voters to UKIP. So as I said it will most likely be a middle ground between the two ie some budget contributions and some immigration controls eg based on a job offer rather than a points system for some form of trade deal
You're under the illusion that May is a chooser and not a beggar. The Brexiteers are mendacious mendicants.
People don't want to take any economic hit at all,
They said that about austerity.
Some grumbled about some things. Then they got on with it.
You seem to believe you have uncovered a brilliant analogy between Brexit and austerity. You haven't, except in the sense that austerity increased the debt, and Brexit will increase our engagement with Europe.
Can we not just take the diehard Remainers and put them in a deep freeze for three years, as the govt gets on with this tedious but necessary task and we end up with the fudge we all expect?
YAWN
Yes, then the diehard Leavers can join them in complaining too and the rest of us can just get on with it
When the other option only gets 35%. People don't want to take any economic hit at all, and think that any politician who can't make Brexit happen without smooth economic sailing is incompetent. Something has to break.
Given the voters of the governing party back hard Brexit by a 13% margin May is obviously not going to do soft Brexit and lose over half her voters to UKIP. So as I said it will most likely be a middle ground between the two ie some budget contributions and some immigration controls eg based on a job offer rather than a points system for some form of trade deal
You're under the illusion that May is a chooser and not a beggar. The Brexiteers are mendacious mendicants.
May wants to win the next election and hold her party together so as I said it will be a middle ground between the two in terms of what she offers
Every Prime Minister wants to win the next election. That is hardly a guarantee of success.
Well for a PM it is as if they lose that election they are then out of a job
People don't want to take any economic hit at all,
They said that about austerity.
Some grumbled about some things. Then they got on with it.
You seem to believe you have uncovered a brilliant analogy between Brexit and austerity. You haven't, except in the sense that austerity increased the debt, and Brexit will increase our engagement with Europe.
Under the governments austerity programme the debt rose, but it almost certainly rose less rapidly that it would have done so otherwise. To suggest otherwise is simply wild conjecture.
You seem to believe you have uncovered a brilliant analogy between Brexit and austerity. You haven't, except in the sense that austerity increased the debt, and Brexit will increase our engagement with Europe.
It's the shrill hysteria of the opponents of both that brings the two together.
People adapt. Businesses adapt. Markets adapt. In all situations, some people win, some lose.
Balanced assessment would recognise that. That seems sadly lacking where you're concerned. You've gone the full Private Fraser, all day, every day.
Can we not just take the diehard Remainers and put them in a deep freeze for three years, as the govt gets on with this tedious but necessary task and we end up with the fudge we all expect?
YAWN
Sorry mate. You are going to get a lot more of it. This is the dominant UK political issue of the moment and will be until at least the extraction deal is done.
Can we not just take the diehard Remainers and put them in a deep freeze for three years, as the govt gets on with this tedious but necessary task and we end up with the fudge we all expect?
YAWN
Sorry mate. You are going to get a lot more of it. This is the dominant UK political issue of the moment and will be until at least the extraction deal is done.
The recriminations and purges will go on longer still.
Like Stalin's 5 year plans it will be declared a success on top of a pile of political corpses.
Can we not just take the diehard Remainers and put them in a deep freeze for three years, as the govt gets on with this tedious but necessary task and we end up with the fudge we all expect?
YAWN
I am seriously thinking of retiring (from PB) because of Brexit. I already log on far less.
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
and how were "hard" and "soft" defined? Some PBers just love nice generalisations with which to prod sensible folk like me
Basically how willing were they to see an economic slowdown if immigration was controlled
So where were the crossovers? Were no other issues deemed pertinent to softness or hardness?
As a slight aside, the editor of Le Parisien has decided that her newspaper will not fund any polling for the French election following the dismal efforts of UK and US pollsters. She may have said something along the lines of, "Polling? C'est bollocks". Or maybe not.
You mean you didn't like the finding. If you are making such an assertion than some analysis please and not just meaningless phrases like "loaded question" and "comedy gold".
Can we not just take the diehard Remainers and put them in a deep freeze for three years, as the govt gets on with this tedious but necessary task and we end up with the fudge we all expect?
YAWN
Sorry mate. You are going to get a lot more of it. This is the dominant UK political issue of the moment and will be until at least the extraction deal is done.
I'm beginning to understand how early pb-ers felt when I used to bang on about Europe, circa 2005. They would roll their eyes, pat me on the head, or edge slowly away.
Looking back I was right, of course. Europe was a dominant issue, albeit disguised, and in the end would shatter the keel of our politics, like vicious reefs hiding under calm water.
Perhaps the Remainers are the same now, and in 10-20 years we will go through huge convulsions and vote for re-entry (I seriously doubt it, but hey, let them have their dream).
What is the case NOW is that we are LEAVING, and the sooner the last diehard Remainers understand this the better, cause then we can stop arguing and the majority of the country that wants a soft, fudgy Brexit will get its way.
By the way, do you remember the many many many times you would personally and teasingly tell me that "Europe doesn't matter", "the EU is a side issue", "no one cares"?
I think I can allow myself one big fat
CHORTLE
It is the defining characteristic of the last few years that the population was *made* to care about Europe.
I think by saying "twas always thus" you are doing pro-Brexit campaigners a disservice.
I read earlier that Nick Palmer ignores lots of posters(inc me) because he doesn't like reading Corbyn is crap (that's the essence of his post). There are many ways of saying this, it largely depends exactly how awful Corbyn is on any given day. Ignoring what people; are saying and with what frequency, is why Labour are in the shit.. They thought that voters would follow them come what may.. Time to think again.. UKIP are going to make serious inroads into the Labour vote. Voters of the WWC that I converse with think Labour are fecked.
People don't want to take any economic hit at all,
They said that about austerity.
Some grumbled about some things. Then they got on with it.
You seem to believe you have uncovered a brilliant analogy between Brexit and austerity. You haven't, except in the sense that austerity increased the debt, and Brexit will increase our engagement with Europe.
What are you going to do when your dire predictions don't come to pass?
As a slight aside, the editor of Le Parisien has decided that her newspaper will not fund any polling for the French election following the dismal efforts of UK and US pollsters. She may have said something along the lines of, "Polling? C'est bollocks". Or maybe not.
You mean you didn't like the finding. If you are making such an assertion than some analysis please and not just meaningless phrases like "loaded question" and "comedy gold".
Good figures for Macron in the latest polls. Although with a big BUT - all the options polled are not equal. Valls will likely rap up the socialist nomination, and Macron is worst against him.
I have hedged my large position on Fillon to cover a Macron victory, I am keeping it that way. Of course the best result would be Le Pen to be out in the first round!
As a slight aside, the editor of Le Parisien has decided that her newspaper will not fund any polling for the French election following the dismal efforts of UK and US pollsters. She may have said something along the lines of, "Polling? C'est bollocks". Or maybe not.
You mean you didn't like the finding. If you are making such an assertion than some analysis please and not just meaningless phrases like "loaded question" and "comedy gold".
How do you define "loaded question" if defining one side as "the economy will suffer" isn't loaded?
"Timothy and Hill had their own work to do on the trip. Before they took up posts in May’s new government in July, Timothy said on Twitter that he did not want “any ‘reaching out’ to Trump,” while Hill tweeted: “Donald Trump is a chump.”"
Wonder how long it'll be before top (ahem) aides are banned from using social media. Idiots!
Can we not just take the diehard Remainers and put them in a deep freeze for three years, as the govt gets on with this tedious but necessary task and we end up with the fudge we all expect?
YAWN
Sorry mate. You are going to get a lot more of it. This is the dominant UK political issue of the moment and will be until at least the extraction deal is done.
I'm beginning to understand how early pb-ers felt when I used to bang on about Europe, circa 2005. They would roll their eyes, pat me on the head, or edge slowly away.
Looking back I was right, of course. Europe was a dominant issue, albeit disguised, and in the end would shatter the keel of our politics, like vicious reefs hiding under calm water.
Perhaps the Remainers are the same now, and in 10-20 years we will go through huge convulsions and vote for re-entry (I seriously doubt it, but hey, let them have their dream).
What is the case NOW is that we are LEAVING, and the sooner the last diehard Remainers understand this the better, cause then we can stop arguing and the majority of the country that wants a soft, fudgy Brexit will get its way.
By the way, do you remember the many many many times you would personally and teasingly tell me that "Europe doesn't matter", "the EU is a side issue", "no one cares"?
I think I can allow myself one big fat
CHORTLE
It is the defining characteristic of the last few years that the population was *made* to care about Europe.
I think by saying "twas always thus" you are doing pro-Brexit campaigners a disservice.
Uh, I have spent my career (as a part time political journalist) banging on about the awfulness of the EU. Here's a TWELVE year old article I wrote for the Telegraph on the shiteness of the EU Constitution, which became the Lisbon Treaty
All my points are good (I just wish I'd been more vicious)
So there you go. I've been fighting for Brexit most of my life, as a national newspaper writer, and I have therefore played a small but not entirely insignificant part in transforming my country.
Snowden is not a political prisoner, at most he is in exile, and has been granted asylum.
He would most likely be imprisoned if he travelled to a country that was willing to extradite to the USA, but apart from that he is a free man.
On the other hand we should not just support (non-violent) political criminals when we like their politics. If our rights are dependent on our politics then they are no rights at all.
However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
If this is the response to the Scottish government's paper, it does indeed tell them everything about how Westminster sees the Union of equals.
Scotland was part of the UK on June 23rd, and still is...
Just, but only just and pathetic attitudes as you demonstrate mean not for long
"Timothy and Hill had their own work to do on the trip. Before they took up posts in May’s new government in July, Timothy said on Twitter that he did not want “any ‘reaching out’ to Trump,” while Hill tweeted: “Donald Trump is a chump.”"
Wonder how long it'll be before top (ahem) aides are banned from using social media. Idiots!
Can we not just take the diehard Remainers and put them in a deep freeze for three years, as the govt gets on with this tedious but necessary task and we end up with the fudge we all expect?
YAWN
Sorry mate. You are going to get a lot more of it. This is the dominant UK political issue of the moment and will be until at least the extraction deal is done.
I'm beginning to understand how early pb-ers felt when I used to bang on about Europe, circa 2005. They would roll their eyes, pat me on the head, or edge slowly away.
Looking back I was right, of course. Europe was a dominant issue, albeit disguised, and in the end would shatter the keel of our politics, like vicious reefs hiding under calm water.
Perhaps the Remainers are the same now, and in 10-20 years we will go through huge convulsions and vote for re-entry (I seriously doubt it, but hey, let them have their dream).
What is the case NOW is that we are LEAVING, and the sooner the last diehard Remainers understand this the better, cause then we can stop arguing and the majority of the country that wants a soft, fudgy Brexit will get its way.
By the way, do you remember the many many many times you would personally and teasingly tell me that "Europe doesn't matter", "the EU is a side issue", "no one cares"?
I think I can allow myself one big fat
CHORTLE
It is the defining characteristic of the last few years that the population was *made* to care about Europe.
I think by saying "twas always thus" you are doing pro-Brexit campaigners a disservice.
Uh, I have spent my career (as a part time political journalist) banging on about the awfulness of the EU. Here's a TWELVE year old article I wrote for the Telegraph on the shiteness of the EU Constitution, which became the Lisbon Treaty
All my points are good (I just wish I'd been more vicious)
So there you go. I've been fighting for Brexit most of my life, as a national newspaper writer, and I have therefore played a small but not entirely insignificant part in transforming my country.
That is to say: my side won. Suck it up.
But despite all that you then had a period of apostasy, when you abandoned your hostility to the EU and pronounced yourself (I think) 'a reluctant Europhile'. What was all that about?
Can we not just take the diehard Remainers and put them in a deep freeze for three years, as the govt gets on with this tedious but necessary task and we end up with the fudge we all expect?
YAWN
Sorry mate. You are going to get a lot more of it. This is the dominant UK political issue of the moment and will be until at least the extraction deal is done.
I'm beginning to understand how early pb-ers felt when I used to bang on about Europe, circa 2005. They would roll their eyes, pat me on the head, or edge slowly away.
Looking back I was right, of course. Europe was a dominant issue, albeit disguised, and in the end would shatter the keel of our politics, like vicious reefs hiding under calm water.
Perhaps the Remainers are the same now, and in 10-20 years we will go through huge convulsions and vote for re-entry (I seriously doubt it, but hey, let them have their dream).
What is the case NOW is that we are LEAVING, and the sooner the last diehard Remainers understand this the better, cause then we can stop arguing and the majority of the country that wants a soft, fudgy Brexit will get its way.
By the way, do you remember the many many many times you would personally and teasingly tell me that "Europe doesn't matter", "the EU is a side issue", "no one cares"?
I think I can allow myself one big fat
CHORTLE
It is the defining characteristic of the last few years that the population was *made* to care about Europe.
I think by saying "twas always thus" you are doing pro-Brexit campaigners a disservice.
Uh, I have spent my career (as a part time political journalist) banging on about the awfulness of the EU. Here's a TWELVE year old article I wrote for the Telegraph on the shiteness of the EU Constitution, which became the Lisbon Treaty
All my points are good (I just wish I'd been more vicious)
So there you go. I've been fighting for Brexit most of my life, as a national newspaper writer, and I have therefore played a small but not entirely insignificant part in transforming my country.
That is to say: my side won. Suck it up.
Sean, what I mean is you one because you convinced people to care. That's a much bigger victory that convincing people one view over the other. Indeed it was the surprise of the campaign.
As a slight aside, the editor of Le Parisien has decided that her newspaper will not fund any polling for the French election following the dismal efforts of UK and US pollsters. She may have said something along the lines of, "Polling? C'est bollocks". Or maybe not.
You mean you didn't like the finding. If you are making such an assertion than some analysis please and not just meaningless phrases like "loaded question" and "comedy gold".
Rubbish. Both questions are completely loaded. One simple example - the 'soft' version completely ignores the Norway option by claiming that the EU would have some control over UK trade policy. Norway is a very soft Brexit model but they are outside the customs union and the EU has no control over who they make trade deals with.
Just one example amongst plenty to show the questions are loaded and idiotic.
I try not to lead on it but I don't get those who say they are bored of Brexit. On PB. It is the elephant on steroids in the room squared in UK politics.
Although there is much repetition nevertheless as each new development, rumour or counter-rumour emerges, of course we should talk about it.
I wouldn't wish to make a partisan point but it seems that it's mainly the Brexiters who don't want to discuss it and threaten to or actually do flounce off, curiously. I get the likes of @Richard_Tyndall, @Casino_Royale and others who, it seems, think "my work here is done" and pop in to comment now and then, but I don't get others who hang around this political website and bemoan discussions about politics.
I try not to lead on it but I don't get those who say they are bored of Brexit. On PB. It is the elephant on steroids in the room squared in UK politics.
Although there is much repetition nevertheless as each new development, rumour or counter-rumour emerges, of course we should talk about it.
I wouldn't wish to make a partisan point but it seems that it's mainly the Brexiters who don't want to discuss it and threaten to or actually do flounce off, curiously. I get the likes of @Richard_Tyndall, @Casino_Royale and others who it looks like think "my work here is done" and pop in to comment now and then, but I don't get others who hang around this political website and bemoan discussions about politics.
To be honest I would spend a lot more time here but I did neglect my real work a fair bit in the months leading up to the vote and really have had to try and play catch up since then. If I could I would comment more as my ideal outcome looks like being rejected. I probably knew it would be but still like to fight my corner if I have the time.
However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
If this is the response to the Scottish government's paper, it does indeed tell them everything about how Westminster sees the Union of equals.
Scotland was part of the UK on June 23rd, and still is...
Just, but only just and pathetic attitudes as you demonstrate mean not for long
I don't know where you get your delusions, laser-brain!
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohs_scale_of_mineral_hardness
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
The trains that everyone wants is a great and exciting goal. The trains that government can deliver is perhaps even more exciting. The trains according to the unions are essentially no trains. Quite how it comes about that the unions whose membership is massively pro-trains finishes up being so anti escapes me.
Despite once already having "if you vote Brexit the economy will suffer" been demonstrated as wrong.
This came to my attention:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/labour-tory-candidates-for-copeland-by-election-2017-1
Looks like Labour are running on local issues particularly the running down of the Cumbrian NHS and a useful summary of the possible candidates. Not sure the source of it all but seems credible.
Labour 2.58 on Betfair exchange looks reasonable value.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-chiefs-tell-voters-ignore-9570679
Copeland Labourites not keen on the dear leader.
As for LAB in Copeland very happy with my 2.74 average on LAB win.
There is the possibility of the EU reaching a deal that allows the UK to control migration and doesn't see the economy suffer. That doesn't fall in either of those deluded options.
There is also the possibility that we don't reach a deal and the economy doesn't suffer.
As a slight aside, the editor of Le Parisien has decided that her newspaper will not fund any polling for the French election following the dismal efforts of UK and US pollsters. She may have said something along the lines of, "Polling? C'est bollocks". Or maybe not.
I see nothing helpful in what they do, and I wouldn't rescue them if it came to that.
If nobody would stump up to help them in bad times then surely it suggests that they're a waste of space.
Some grumbled about some things. Then they got on with it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
People adapt. Businesses adapt. Markets adapt. In all situations, some people win, some lose.
Balanced assessment would recognise that. That seems sadly lacking where you're concerned. You've gone the full Private Fraser, all day, every day.
Think Nigel may have had a problem arranging the visit with HM
When is Angela to visit Trump - does anyone know out of interest
Like Stalin's 5 year plans it will be declared a success on top of a pile of political corpses.
I think by saying "twas always thus" you are doing pro-Brexit campaigners a disservice.
I have hedged my large position on Fillon to cover a Macron victory, I am keeping it that way. Of course the best result would be Le Pen to be out in the first round!
https://twitter.com/amnesty/status/816742163866406912
Wonder how long it'll be before top (ahem) aides are banned from using social media. Idiots!
Snowden is not a political prisoner, at most he is in exile, and has been granted asylum.
He would most likely be imprisoned if he travelled to a country that was willing to extradite to the USA, but apart from that he is a free man.
On the other hand we should not just support (non-violent) political criminals when we like their politics. If our rights are dependent on our politics then they are no rights at all.
Just one example amongst plenty to show the questions are loaded and idiotic.
Plus Sir Patrick Stewart personally persuaded me to join/support Amnesty.
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/amnesty-international-uk-charitable-trust
Although there is much repetition nevertheless as each new development, rumour or counter-rumour emerges, of course we should talk about it.
I wouldn't wish to make a partisan point but it seems that it's mainly the Brexiters who don't want to discuss it and threaten to or actually do flounce off, curiously. I get the likes of @Richard_Tyndall, @Casino_Royale and others who, it seems, think "my work here is done" and pop in to comment now and then, but I don't get others who hang around this political website and bemoan discussions about politics.